Defense has always been a hallmark of Wisconsin’s formula for success. By keeping scores low and turnovers to a minimum, the Badgers are able to win games year after year. But this season, Bo Ryan’s team has struggled to defend other top teams. The problem isn’t turnovers or a lack of offense; rather, as BTN.com’s Big Ten Geeks writes, the Badgers have struggled with defensive rebounding and fouling too much. Wisconsin has done well against opponents it physically out-matches — the Badgers defeated Southeastern Louisiana, Cornell and Presbyterian by an average of 39 points each — but the team has struggled against opponents that can earn easy second-chance points. Wisconsin was out-rebounded by 18 against Florida and two against Creighton, while Florida got to the free throw line six more times than the Badgers, and Creighton got there 10 more times. Florida and Creighton are both very good teams, so losses in those games aren’t terrible for the Badgers’ postseason resume, but their defensive rebounding and fouling issues could lead to more trouble down the road.
It’s Hard to Believe That Bo Ryan’s Team is Struggling Defensively
No matter how Wisconsin defends, though, the Badgers will continue to struggle if they give teams extra possessions and frequently puts them on the line. Losing to Top 25 teams this early in the season may not matter all that much, but if this becomes a pattern, it could spell trouble for the Badgers down the road. We all know how tough the Big Ten is this year, so Wisconsin won’t have as many chances to beat up on weaker teams once it gets into league play in January. The Badgers must use the rest of the non-conference slate to prepare for the coming uptick in competition, starting with consecutive games against Virginia and California, then later, a game against Marquette. That should give us a better understanding of where this Wisconsin team is headed.
Nick Fasulo is an RTC correspondent who writes the column College Basketball By the Tweets, a look at the world of college hoops through the prism of everyone’s favorite social media platform. You can find him on Twitter @nickfasuloSBN.
I’ve always felt that the overall excitement level of college basketball is, more than any other sport, contingent on how relevant its bluebloods are. Even if you love to hate them, if Duke were to disappear from the Top 25 for a season, it would stink. With the renaissance of Indiana now almost fully developed, I think we can all rest easy that one of the game’s great programs is back where it belongs, and it’s for the betterment of the sport.
IU fans win or lose…damn what a fan base..unreal energy in Brooklyn …WOW
In a week that is designed to allow fans to sit back and start to learn more about the strengths and weaknesses of their favorite Division I teams, it was a puny sophomore guard playing for Division III Grinnell College garnering the most attention And sides were taken as polarizing as our country’s two primary political parties.
First, naturally, as the news trickled, the response was positive shock and awe.
To everyone saying “Grinnell does this all the time”: the collegiate scoring record had stood for 59 years, and Jack Taylor broke it by 22.
But then the story went mainstream, as Taylor was talking with morning TV shows and being praised for his record-breaking feat. Meanwhile, true sports fans grumbled, pointing out the gimmicky style of Grinnell and how there was obvious disregard for real basketball being played in an effort for Taylor to hurl up enough shots to get his name into the record books.
Wake Forest was embarrassed last night, losing by 16 to Nebraska in Winston-Salem — the same Nebraska that just eked out a home win over Tulane before getting blown out by Kent State (also at home). The game was close at the half with the Demon Deacons only trailing by four, but Nebraska came out blazing in the second half and scored on 19 of its first 23 possessions over a span of 15 minutes. In case you prefer advanced stats, Nebraska scored 40 points on those 23 possessions. That’s 1.74 points per possession, for those of you wondering.
Nebraska Manhandled Wake Forest at the Joel Last Night. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
“I’ve tried everything. I’m not going to make any excuses. Tuesday is their toughest day academically. It starts at sun-up. I was aware of that, and I was trying to give them rest. I tried a different approach today, just giving them some rest. I don’t know.”
For those of you keeping score at home, Bzdelik’s team was embarrassed at home by a Big Ten basketball doormat because the players had a hard class day. It’s really hard to believe that Wake Forest was considered a national contender a few years ago. But Bzdelik isn’t making excuses. Well, other than blaming an abysmal home loss on academics and “rest.” Read the rest of this entry »
Mark Selig is the RTC correspondent for the Colonial Athletic Association. You can also find more of his written work at jamesmadison.rivals.com or on Twitter @MarkRSelig.
Looking Back
Chris Ouch!: Drexel learned that top scorer Chris Fouch will miss the rest of this season with a broken right ankle. It’s a tough blow for the Dragons and their senior, who also missed all what would have been his freshman season with a knee injury, before winning rookie of the year as a sophomore. Fouch, a 6’0″ sixth man and shooting specialist, led the Dragons in scoring two seasons ago and was leading them through three games this year with a 16.7 PPG average. That puts more of a burden on guards Frantz Massenat and Damion Lee, a pair of CAA first team preseason picks.
Everybody’s Got A Loss: Any unrealistic dreams of a perfect season by a CAA team were dashed this week when upstart William & Mary followed its 3-0 start with a pair of losses. Surely we didn’t expect to see any team go deep into the season without a tarnish, especially given the teams W&M beat to become undefeated. The Tribe had a shot to upset Wake Forest – maybe the worst team in the ACC – after doing so two seasons ago, but dropped that game after snapping their unbeaten streak against Miami (OH).
Bright Lights Unkind To Hens: When Delaware beat Virginia in an NIT Tip-Off game, it set up a trip to Madison Square Garden for the Blue Hens. Playing on ESPN for the world to see, Delaware couldn’t muster another upset. It lost 66-63 against Kansas State, and then was trounced 85-59 in the third-place game by Pittsburgh. Devon Saddler, at least, looked like a superstar in NYC, scoring 60 points in the two games combined.
Reader’s Take
POY Stock Watch
It’s too early to crown a Player of the Year in the CAA, but there’s no harm in using the first handful of games for each team to set a baseline for the race. These five have earned front-runner status with their early play.
Devon Saddler has been outstanding so far this season (US Presswire)
Joel Smith – The Northeastern guard wasn’t named to the league’s preseason first or second team, but he’s stepped up in the absence of a teammate that was – guard Jonathan Lee, who’s out with an injury. Smith is second in the conference in scoring (17.8 PPG) and leads his team in assists and steals.
Devon Saddler – Delaware’s power guard leads the league in scoring (22.2PPG), even if others surpass him in efficiency. If Saddler can display the all-around game to match his bucket-making prowess, the comparisons to former Hofstra guard Charles Jenkins – a two-time CAA POY who’s now in the NBA – will materialize.
Marcus Thornton – It’s a point guard’s league, and Thornton might be the most responsible primary ballhandler, even if he’s just a sophomore. He’s shooting 54.2 percent from the field and is as consistent as they come.
Jerelle Benimon – Towson coach Pat Skerry promised in the preseason that Benimon would be a “beast,” and the Georgetown transfer has delivered. Round up his rebounds and he’s averaging a double-double, adding a measure of toughness that Towson desperately needed.
Keith Rendleman – That UNCW is .500 after six games should earn Rendleman a trophy itself. As mentioned before, he’s the only consistent player on his team, but he brings it every night and has made a lacking roster competitive.
Joe Dzuback is the RTC correspondent for the Atlantic-10. You can also find his musings online at Villanova by the Numbers or on Twitter @vtbnblog.
Looking Back
The (Early Season Invitational) Returns Are In – Thirteen of the conference’s 16 teams are participating in early season invitational tournaments this season. While several tournaments continue play through this week, 11 of the higher-profile tournaments finished play over the Thanksgiving Weekend. Conference teams (see below) took a first-place, three second-places, two fourth-places and two fifth-places. Versus the field in those nine tournaments the conference posted an 18-17 (0.514) record, below their 60% winning percentage overall. Charlotte (Great Alaska Shootout), Butler (Maui Invitational), Saint Joseph’s (Coaches vs. Cancer) and Saint Louis (CBE Classic) reached their respective tournament championship games. Charlotte (see story below) swept the field in Anchorage, Alaska, to take first place and preserve their undefeated record.
Pride of the A-10 – Entering their last season of conference play, the Charlotte 49ers’ men’s basketball team seems at last to have caught fire, completing the first fifth of its 2012-13 schedule with a perfect 6-0 record, taking the Great Alaska Shootout title Saturday night with a win 67-59 over Northeastern of the CAA. Since moving over from C-USA, the 49ers have dominated A-10 sports, as 11 of Charlotte’s 16 sports programs have garnered a total of 30 titles — either regular season championships or conference tournament titles – in the school’s eight-year run. The move to the A-10, basketball-driven for the most part, was resisted by more than a few fans (and former men’s basketball coach Bobby Lutz), due largely to the conference’s more northern and eastern focus. That the men’s hoops program, a source of pride for the school, could only muster a mediocre 48-64 (0.429) in conference play has been a huge disappointment, taken by some as a confirmation that the move from the southern and western-centric C-USA was ill-considered. Charlotte’s 6-0 start matches the 1975-76 club’s 6-0 opening of their 24-6 campaign.
Reader’s Take
Power Rankings
Phil Martelli Sits Atop the Power Rankings at This Early Point of the Season
Saint Joseph’s (3-1) – The Hawks easily handled a Harvard squad that earned an NCAA bid last March 75-66, before breaking for the Thanksgiving Weekend. Junior forward Ronald Roberts was named the Player of the Week for the A-10 Conference for his work at the Coaches vs. Cancer Tournament over the November 17 weekend. The six man nucleus — Carl Jones, Langston Galloway, Chris Wilson, Ron Roberts, Halil Kanacevic and C. J. Aiken – has done a tremendous job sharing the touches and scoring so far. The squad goes back into action Wednesday when they host American. The Creighton game Saturday should be a featured game next weekend.
Temple (3-0) – Scootie Randall continued his comeback by playing 38 minutes as the Owls downed Delaware Saturday 80-75. Randall and backcourt mate Khalif Wyatt chipped in 18 points apiece (45% of the Owl’s total point production), notching an efficient 51% eFG%. Better yet, the two combined for 10 assists to five turnovers, as they helped each other and their front court teammates. Fans who held their breath last season as then-freshman center Anthony Lee stepped in for then injured senior Michael Eric are seeing the benefits now. The sophomore has become a rebounding workhorse, grabbing an astonishing one in three of the opponent misses while he is on the court. Fifth year senior Jake O’Brien has garnered impressive numbers on the Owls’ offensive boards. The next two games, versus Buffalo (Wednesday) and Wagner (Saturday) should bump the win total to five. Read the rest of this entry »
We are two and a half weeks into the 2012-13 season and coach Kevin O’Neill’s USC squad is still searching for an identity. We heard all offseason long about how this Trojan team had more than enough depth, and how this was the year they got back on track and competed for another NCAA Tournament berth. However, as Evan Budrovich points out, the influx of available bodies has actually hurt SC early on, leaving it far short of its true potential. Budrovich lays out a plan that appears to be foolproof at the end of the article, stating that the Trojans should go big and implement little used freshman forward Strahinja Gavrilovic into the starting lineup instead of Byron Wesley. Gavrilovic’s ability to score consistently from any spot in the paint would help SC when it goes into one of its typical shooting slumps. Wesley would come off the bench and play in his most comfortable shooting guard role, and Renaldo Wooldridge would see increased minutes as a defensive stopper. Whatever O’Neill decides on, he needs to figure it out quickly before SC faces Nebraska, New Mexico, and Minnesota the next three times it takes the floor.
Staying in Los Angeles, Bruins Nationdelves into some theories as to what is wrong with UCLA. As DCBruins points out, Ben Howland got his dream recruiting class, and team, this season – so the players are definitely not at fault. And even in the day and age where players transfer one game into the season, it’s not likely that the majority of the team has already “stopped playing” for Howland this quick into the year. Or maybe the quoted Bruin Report Online article is referring to fouling unnecessarily in the final 20 seconds (heyoooooo). Whether true or not, perception is reality, and the perception by most is that theory number four, stating that Howland flat-out can’t coach this group, is true right now.
Something will have to give on Friday night in Kansas City, where an Oregon State team struggling with perimeter defense meets a Kansas squad that has been less than spectacular at the one through three spots on the floor so far this season. Head coach Bill Self compared his player’s ball reversal skills to be worse than that of third and fourth graders playing YMCA ball after the Jayhawks defeated San Jose State on Monday. If those struggles continue against the Beavers at the Sprint Center, Oregon State has a chance to get a marquee win Friday evening.
I had been calling for it all throughout the offseason, and finally the media and opposing teams are catching on – California guard Justin Cobbs is legit. Cobbs has found his role with the Golden Bears and has settled into it perfectly, playing inside himself for a tidy average of 20 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 3.7 APG so far this season. Without a doubt, the mixture of Cobbs and junior Allen Crabbe combines to make the league’s top backcourt duo so far in 2012-13. Also included in Doug Haller’s column is his weekly power rankings, which are pretty close to the ones we released yesterday. Haller, however, has Arizona and Colorado flipped at the top, as he does with Oregon and California just after those two.
Washington received more bad news on Tuesday when it learned that senior guard Scott Suggs would miss Wednesday’s game against Saint Louis due to plantar fasciitis in his right foot. The Huskies were without Suggs’ services against Colorado State on Saturday, and as we all know, that didn’t turn out very well. This already offensively challenged Dawg squad will get all it can handle, and then some, against the Billikens tonight. SLU has gotten off to a slow, 3-2 start, but anyone that tuned in to see them dominate Texas A&M last week for a 21-point victory knows that they are for real.
With a couple of weeks of games in the books, we can start getting a good gauge on Big 12 teams this season — not a great gauge this early, but good enough. The three Big 12 writers — myself, Danny, and Nate — will publish our conference power rankings every week. While a team that loses usually drops a few slots in the AP or Coaches Top 25 poll, that might not be the case here. The best teams (in our opinion at least) up until that point in the season will be on top. But don’t expect things to remain stagnant with this group of teams. There aren’t many guarantees other than TCU being pretty bad. Each of our top 10’s will be averaged out with any ties going to the higher ranked KenPom team. We’ll also try to mix it up a bit each week with a theme facing each team — this time around, we examine a player stepping up for each squad, someone who maybe wasn’t expected to shoulder as much of the load as he’s done so far this season.
1) Oklahoma State (5-0, 0-0 Big 12)
Previous Ranking: 6
Oklahoma State makes its debut at No. 1 on our list with a nice win over North Carolina State.
Last Week: W 81-51 vs. Portland State
This Week: Saturday @ Virginia Tech, 2:00 PM CST
Rundown: With the return of sophomore guard Le’Bryan Nash and the introduction of freshman point guard and former five-star recruit Marcus Smart, the Cowboys are 5-0 with an impressive upset of then No. 6 North Carolina State on November 18. It’s enough for them to begin the season atop the list.
A Player Stepping Up: Junior G Markel Brown: Brown has been a nice complement to the underclassmen duo of Nash and Smart through five games this season. He’s averaging 14.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 2.2 APG including a season-high 23 points on opening night against Portland State.
2) Kansas (5-1, 0-0)
Previous Ranking: 1
Last Week: W 78-41 vs. Washington State, W 73-59 vs. Saint Louis
This Week: W 70-57 vs San Jose State, Friday vs. Oregon State, 7:00 PM
Rundown: The Jayhawks should have beaten Michigan State a few weeks ago but struggled down the stretch, eventually losing, 67-64. They’ve also looked less than impressive at times against subpar competition at home. Southeast Missouri State got within striking distance in the second half, Chattanooga held an eight-point halftime lead, and San Jose State lost by only 13 on Monday night in Allen Fieldhouse. Bill Self will have this group improved by conference play, but for now, they’re going to continue to be inconsistent while the freshmen get acclimated.
A Player Stepping Up: Senior G Travis Releford: The senior guard was named Big 12 Player of the Week last week after averaging 20 points in wins over Washington State and Saint Louis in the CBE Classic. Never a true first or second option on offense, Releford is Bill Self’s go-to defender on the perimeter and he’s a nearly automatic in transition.
It’s November, and that is far too early to come to any major conclusions in college basketball. However, the Florida Gators opened up the 2012-13 campaign in dominant fashion. Nobody who has played Billy Donovan’s team has yet to finish a game within single digits of the Gators. They put a good Wisconsin team away by 18 points, beat Middle Tennessee State by 21, and wore down rival Central Florida by 13. But is Florida a team that could end up as a national champion at the end of the year? We know enough about the makeup of national championship teams as a result of 10 years of advanced statistics that it is not out of the question to begin to hypothesize.
Could Donovan Have a Shot at His Third National Title This Season?
There are a couple of general principles that have been established from the data available at Ken Pomeroy’s site. Before we get into that, it is important to remember that a lot can change from now until March. While he wrote the following passage regarding individual player stats, it is still somewhat applicable here. Before proceeding, we should all read Pomeroy’s “small size sample oath” to keep in mind the limited scope of the statistics and the fluidity of the numbers over the next several months.
I, (state your name), understand that the player stats are based on extremely limited information in mid-November. I understand that Erik Murphy is not the best college basketball player of all time and that Adreian Payne is not going to grab anything close to 43% of opponents’ missed shots nor 0% of his own team’s misses for a full season. Additionally, I understand that some of the numbers displayed on these pages are utterly meaningless at this point, like Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson’s free throw rate or anything on Jordan Vandenberg’s line. I will, to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the responsible use of advanced stats for individuals in mid-November.
In analyzing statistics from the national champions from 2003 to present, there are four common denominators of national championship teams:
1) The national champion has never come from outside the KenPom top 10.
Overall KenPom rankings for past 10 national champs (national rankings in parenthesis).
Some degree of normalcy has returned to Austin. For a night anyway. As most Texas games have gone this season, last night’s win over Sam Houston State was uh-guh-ly. They defeated the Bearkats by 28 but it was far from a typical blowout. The Horns shot 40% from the floor, though I guess it looks better than SHSU’s 21% shooting. They came into last night’s game averaging a Big 12-high 19 turnovers a game and, wouldn’t you know it, UT turned it over 19 times. A win is a win but in this case, is it? The Longhorns have struggled to put the ball in the basket lately and haven’t held on to the basketball. Simply put, for the thousandth time, they need Myck Kabongo back.
Bill Self was none too pleased with his Jayhawks’ performance on Monday night against San Jose State. When asked about his team’s play during the Spartans’ 16-0 second-half run, Self said, “I’ve seen bad offense before — third-and-fourth grade YMCA basketball with no good ball reversal and bad ball-handling. Our offense surpassed that tonight the last 12 minutes of the game.” Considering how they looked against Michigan State, in stretches against SJSU and Chattanooga, and Oklahoma State’s quick ascent to the top, you start to wonder if KU can really win this league again. But wondering is all I will do because I don’t want to be the guy dismissing the Jayhawks so soon when history has told us not to. Better safe than sorry.
Marcus Smart sure is making a name for himself early. CBSSports.com released its freshman of the year and player of the year power rankings for this week and Smart is one of two freshmen (the other is Kentucky’s Archie Goodwin) to be on both lists. Smart is a player Clark Kellogg would call a “stat-sheet stuffer.” With an ouput of 13.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.8 dimes, 2.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game? I’d say he’s deserving.
One of the big surprises in the league: West Virginia has started the season 1-3. But are they 1-3 because they’re not very good or are they a product of their own scheduling? I tend to give Bob Huggins-coached teams the benefit of the doubt when he has over 700 wins to speak for his talent. At least he’s not afraid of scheduling tough opponents, though, unlike some coaches. Playing at Gonzaga is pretty close to a death sentence. Davidson and Oklahoma on a neutral floor could have been Ws. My brain is telling me that the Mountaineers will come back around when conference play starts up in a little more than a month, because the last and only time he had a team finish under .500 was in 1984-85 with Akron, his first year as a head coach.
If ya haven’t heard, Texas Tech is a perfect 4-0 on the young season. A big part of the Red Raiders’ quick start, the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal says, is junior Dejan Kravic. The article mentions one play the 6’11” Kravic had against Jackson State. He stood at the top of the key, ball in hand, then made a move with a crossover dribble before hittin a bank shot under duress from a Tiger defender. If the idea of a big guy pulling off a crossover dribble isn’t intriguing enough, then what in the world is? Head coach Chris Walker says being physical on the floor “is not in his nature” and believes “he is only going to get better.” We’ll see how he fares against a long and athletic interior from Arizona on Saturday.
One of the most surprising things about Minnesota‘s fantastic start has been what it’s been able to do considering Trevor Mbakwe‘s contribution (or lack thereof). The senior and former All-Big Ten forward has been practically a non-factor at times for the Gophers as he comes back from an injury that sidelined him for most of the 2011-12 season and a tumultuous offseason. To counter that counter-production, the team has relied on other scorers, and some lesser-known role players like Andre Ingram and Maverick Ahanmisi. Ingram, a senior, has turned into a sort of do-everything glue guy that handles a lot of the dirty work Mbakwe typically does and is just “a real hard worker” as teammate Andre Hollins told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Ahanmisi has filled a critical role as well as the team’s backup point guard.
When it comes to shooting — either good or bad — teams often revert to the mean. And that’s what can make relying heavily on the three-point shot so difficult: When it’s good, it’s good. When it’s not, it can really cause problems. Illinois has jumped out to a fast start largely thanks to hot shooting from long distance but, as Loren Tate puts it, it’s live by the three and die by the three. The Illini used threes to beat Gardner-Webb and Hawaii at the last moment, and as a whole, are averaging almost 15 more points per game this season thanks to five additional three-point buckets. But can they sustain that pace through the remainder of the non-conference slate and into Big Ten play? History says that’s probably unlikely.
When All-American center Jared Sullinger was on his way out, there was sure to be a considerable void in Ohio State‘s frontcourt. Part of that burden could be shouldered by the versatile Deshaun Thomas, but some of it would also have to fall onto former McDonald’s All-American and now-sophomore Amir Williams. His minutes have more than doubled (from 6.6 MPG to 13.5), and his point production has gone up accordingly (from 1.7 PPG to 3.5) but it’s still not enough to keep opponents honest in the paint. He contributed a vital nine minutes in last year’s Elite Eight win against Syracuse, leaving fans optimistic about this season, but since then, there hasn’t been much improvement. And coach Thad Matta is waiting.
Tom Izzo recognizes the value of conference expansion. It improves the Big Ten’s footprint, which now reaches to the East Coast thanks to Rutgers and Maryland. It’s a huge revenue boost, largely thanks to the Big Ten Network and its new market reach. But with that comes negative consequences too; namely, the value placed on the regular season conference title. That will surely be diluted with a 14-team league (soon to be 16?) and teams not having the opportunity to play each other regularly. Simply put, the more teams in the conference, the more one-time meetings over the course of a year and the harder it is to really evaluate which team is the best during the regular season. The conference tournament is already a tough enough litmus test, but now the regular season title is becoming even more diluted.
Wisconsin freshman Sam Dekker was heralded as one of the best recruits in the Bo Ryan era, and he’s found a way to stay motivated early on. The problem is, the Badgers’ early season losses that are fueling his fire. Wisconsin has already dropped two games, and they seem to be eating away at the former five-star recruit. Dekker is averaging 19.8 MPG this season and after a 10-point loss to Creighton, he responded with season highs in points (19) and minutes (26) in a victory against Arkansas. “Winning is everything to me,” Dekker said, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “I am crushed when we lose… Going out and losing to two teams already in the first six games, if that’s not telling you that you have to get into the gym and work harder, I don’t know what is.”
