Memphis (#2 seed, West, Kansas City pod)

vs. California State Northridge (#15)
March 19th, 12:25 P.M.

Vegas Line:  Memphis -19.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Memphis, Tennessee
Conference: Conference USA, won the conference tournament
Coach: John Calipari, 251-68 at Memphis
08-09 Record: 28-3, 16-0 C-USA
Last 12 Games: 12-0
Best Win: 68-50 v. Gonzaga, February 7th
Worst Loss: 70-79 v. Georgetown, December 13th
Off. Efficiency Rating: 111.8/ 39th overall
Def. Efficiency Rating: 79.4/ 1st overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s):  Tyreke Evans- 16.6 points/game, 5.5 rebounds/game, 3.8 assists/game, 2.1 steals/game
Unsung Hero:  Antonio Anderson- 10.2 points/game, 4.9 rebounds/game, 4.1 assists/game, 43.8 FG%
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s):  Tyreke Evans- projected 36th overall
Key Injuries: none
Depth: 26.6%, 270th overall
Achilles Heel: The Tigers are extremely athletic, but they don’t shoot the ball particularly well. They only shoot 32% from behind the arc as a team, and they still shoot under 70% (69.6) from the charity stripe as a team as well. Tyreke Evans has been a solid point guard, but his strength is his drive and kick ability, but if there is no one out there to shoot, they will struggle.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: The Tigers are easily the best defensive team in the country, but one gets the feeling that the offense truly revolves around the turnovers they create, and the play-making ability of Evans. If Evans doesn’t turn the ball over and the team continues to suffocate the opponents, they have a great shot at the Final Four.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Evans turns the ball over a lot and the Tigers go cold from behind the arc, they will really struggle. They won’t struggle in the first round, but
Maryland and California are both solid teams with really good players that can play defense and create their own shots. If the Tigers aren’t able to get out on the break via created turnovers, they will have trouble scoring against the Terps or Bears

Last Year Invited: 2008, lost to Kansas in the National Championship game.
Streak: Three consecutive years
Best NCAA Finish: They have lost in the National Championship game in 1973, and 2008.
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.17 wins per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None
Distance to First Round Site: 452 miles away from Kansas City, Missouri
School’s Claim to Fame: Kentucky might have Ashley Judd, but the Tigers have Justin Timberlake!!….Ok, kidding! I scoured for a real claim to fame, and really all I came up with was that Michael Wilson, a former Tiger and current Harlem Globetrotter, holds the record for highest slam dunk (12 feet) ever. So there’s that.
School Wishes It Could Forget: The misfortunes of the 1985 Final Four team.
Prediction: Despite their soft schedule, the Tigers should have no problem reaching the Sweet 16. A match-up between Missouri and Memphis would be awesome to watch for defensive minds, and Missouri has the type of players to exploit Memphis’ lack of a true point guard. However, I think Calipari’s squad will get through Missouri before succumbing to UCONN in the Elite Eight

Major RTC stories: Reflections on Monday Night

Preview written by… Mike Lemaire

MARQUETTE (#6, West, Boise pod)

vs. Utah State (#11)
March 20th, 12:30 P.M.

Vegas Line: Marquette -4.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Conference: Big East, at-large bid
Coach: Buzz Williams, 24-9 at Marquette
08-09 Record: 24-9, 13-7 Big East
Last 12 Games: 5-7
Best Win: 79-72 v. Villanova, February 10th
Worst Loss: 56-57 v. South Florida, February 6th
Off. Efficiency Rating: 117.7/ 9th overall
Def. Efficiency Rating: 94.2/ 56th overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s):  Jerel McNeal- 19.7 points/game, 4.6 rebounds/game, 4.0 assists/game, 2.1 steals/game ;Wesley Matthews- 18.4 points/game, 5.6 rebounds/game, 2.6 assists/game, 48.8 FG%
Unsung Hero:  Lazar Hayward- 16.1 points/game, 8.6 rebounds/game, 35.5 3PT%
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s):  Jerel McNeal- projected 52nd overall
Key Injuries:  Dominic James- season-ending broken left foot
Depth: 24.6%/ 311th overall
Achilles Heel: It is not just a lack of depth that has been exacerbated with the loss of Dominic James, the Golden Eagles were essentially a four-horse team and almost all of their meaningful production came from McNeal, Matthews, James, and Hayward. Without James, Maurice Acker takes over, but he isn’t the same type of threat. This is still an extremely talented team, but you could tell down the stretch how they hang with teams for awhile, and then fade.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: If the Golden Eagles shoot the lights out, they could make a deep run. The team loves to shoot and McNeal, Matthews, and Hayward have no qualms about chucking it up. If they shoot the ball well, they will beat a lot of teams because they play great defense and don’t turn the ball over a tremendous amount. They need their Big Three to play well in every game, if they don’t it will be a short first tournament for Buzz Williams.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: If McNeal or Matthews or Hayward has an off-night, Marquette just doesn’t have the players to make up for that type of scoring loss…period.

Last Year Invited: 2008, lost to Stanford in the Round of 32
Streak: Three straight years
Best NCAA Finish: They won the National Championship in 1977
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): -0.20 wins per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None
Distance to First Round Site: 1736.47 miles away from Boise, Idaho
School’s Claim to Fame: Al McGuire was the coach of the Marquette Golden Eagles from 1964-1977, won their only National Championship, and is still celebrated like a king at that school. Known for his colorful personality, he is a member of the Basketball Hall of Fame and he could probably be elected Mayor in Milwaukee, Wisconsin had he not died in 2001.
School Wishes It Could Forget: In 2007, the school played Michigan State in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament and the whole school turned out to see the game, even though it was during spring break. The Golden Eagles then proceeded to get shut out for the first nine minutes of the game and make it a very long spring break for Marquette fans and students.
Prediction: The Golden Eagles are still a good team without Dominic James, and they have more than enough talent to beat Utah State. But if Missouri makes it through to the second round, their full court press will wreck havoc on the Golden Eagles, especially Acker. They don’t have the depth to play with the Tigers for 40 minutes.

Major RTC stories:  ATB: Marquette’s Dominic James Out for the Season

Preview written by… Mike Lemaire

Louisville (#1 seed, Midwest, Dayton pod)

vs. Morehead State (#16)
Friday, March 20th, 7:10pm

Vegas Line: Louisville -21

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Conference: Big East, won the conference tournament
Coach: Rick Pitino, 197-72 (so far) at Louisville
08-09 Record: 28-5, 19-2 Big East
Last 12 Games: 11-1
Best Win: 69-63 v. Pittsburgh, January 17th
Worst Loss: 57-90 v. Notre Dame, February 12th
Off. Efficiency Rating: 111.1/ 46^th overall
Def. Efficiency Rating: 84.0/ 2^nd overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Terrence Williams- 12.6 points/game, 8.5 rebounds/game, 5.0 assists/game, 2.3 steals/game

Unsung Hero: Jerry Smith- 7.3 points/game, 1.2 steals/game, 38.7 3Pt%

Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Earl Clark/ projected 8th overall… Terrence Williams/ projected 42nd overall

Injuries: None

Depth: 31.5%/155th

Achilles Heel: Discipline is the one thing that Louisville has lacked in their losses. Earl Clark is an other-world talent, but he shoots just 30.1% from downtown, so why does he continue to bomb? The Cardinals don’t need Edgar Sosa to score for them to be successful, but he is shooting even worse than Clark and has taken more threes. It is difficult to find a team with more talent, and experience, but sometimes the Cardinals don’t use all that talent efficiently.

Will Make a Deep Run if… If Edgar Sosa plays under control and distributes instead of trying to score, and Pitino can keep Samardo Samuels and Terrance Jennings out of foul trouble, the Cardinals will be in most people’s Final Four brackets, and will probably be a championship contender. On the biggest stage in the sport it seems the Cardinals will not be prone to their occasional letdown, and if they take good shots they will be one of the best teams in.

Will Make an Early Exit if… If they get off to a slow start against a team and have to play from behind, they will struggle. From behind the Cardinals will start to force up bad shots, they will try to make too many plays and end up turning the ball over. There is no mid-major team that can play with Louisville when they are on their game; they just need to stay focused.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2008, lost in the Elite Eight to North Carolina

Streak: Two consecutive years

Best NCAA Finish: They were National Champions in 1980 and 1986.

Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.46 wins per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: (provide some/any connection to the Motor City)

Distance to First Round Site: 152.88 miles away from Dayton, Ohio

School’s Claim to Fame:

School Wishes It Could Forget: Among the list of famous alumni of the University on Wikipedia are notable scholars, architects, musicians…oh, and Larry Birkhead, Anna Nicole Smith’s baby’s daddy. Did I miss something? Does he really get to be listed as a famous alumnus because he needed a paternity test to prove he was a lover of Anna Nicole Smith? Maybe I am wrong and the University of Louisville embraces him, but my guess is he is not at the top of their list for Commencement Speakers.

Prediction: I am just going to come out and say it. The Louisville Cardinals are the best team in the tournament and will win the NCAA Title. The way they dismantled the rest of the Big East, it looked like no one could hang with them. The Cardinals play smothering defense and are scoring points of the turnovers they create. If they continue to play within themselves, there is no one that can beat them.

Major RTC stories:  None

Preview written by… Mike Lemaire

ILLINOIS (#5 seed, South, Portland pod)

vs. Western Kentucky (#12)
March 19th, 9:55 P.M.

Vegas Line:  Illinois -4.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Champaign, Illinois
Conference: Big Ten, conf./at-large
Coach: Bruce Weber, 150-53 at Illinois
08-09 Record: 24-9, 12-8 Big Ten
Last 12 Games: 7-5
Best Win: 75-59 v. Missouri, December 23rd
Worst Loss: 36-59 v. Minnesota, January 29th
Off. Efficiency Rating: 106.0/ 98th overall
Def. Efficiency Rating: 85.9/ 4th overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Mike Davis- 11.4 points/game, 8.0 rebounds/game, 53.7 FG%

Unsung Hero:  Chester Frazier- 5.7 points/game, 5.3 assists/game, 4.8 rebounds/game, 1.4 steals/game

Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): None

Key Injuries: Frazier was hurt during the Big Ten tournament because of a badly bruised hand, but I seriously doubt he would miss the tournament, especially in his senior season.

Depth: 24.8%/ 306th overall

Achilles Heel: Illinois is one of the best defensive teams in the country let alone the Big Ten, but they just can’t seem to score the ball on a consistent basis. Davis and Demetri McCamey are the two best offensive players on the Fighti Illni squad, and even they aren’t scary to opposing defenses. Their offensive efficiency is just 98^th in the country, and they don’t have a real three-point threat outside of Trent Meacham. Teams will try to push Davis out of the box and keep McCamey from penetrating in order to force someone else to step up.

Will Make a Deep Run if… The Illini will make a deep run if they continue to play stifling defense and if they find a third option on offense. Dominique Keller, Meacham, and Alex Legion all have the potential for big games offensively, and if one of them plays well offensively the Illini could give a lot of teams headaches.

Will Make an Early Exit if… If the shots aren’t falling for Bruce Weber’s team and Mike Davis is neutralized by another athletic big man, you can almost write the Illini off right away. Not many teams scored less than 40 points this season, but Illinois did it twice, and both nights they had almost no offensive identity. If Davis gets in foul trouble, the Illinois offense disappears.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2007, lost in the first round to Virginia Tech

Streak None

Best NCAA Finish: They lost in the National Championship game to North Carolina in 2005.

Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): -0.25 wins per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None

Distance to First Round Site: 2120.17 miles away from Portland, Oregon

School’s Claim to Fame: They do have Michael Jordan’s son on their basketball team, but even more important is how impressive a public institution Illinois is. The Illini are ranked the No. 10 public institution by the U.S. World News Report, and No. 40 in national institutions by the same report. Did I mention that Michael Jordan’s son goes there?

School Wishes It Could Forget: Ah the good ole days of Chief Illiniwek had been the mascot for Illinois since 1926, until in 2007 when Native Americans complained about the borderline racism and inaccurate representation of indigenous culture. Nothing like realizing the University has been making a mockery of indigenous culture for almost a century.

Prediction: The Illini have struggled to put the ball in the basket, and as a result they find themselves almost the underdog in their first round game against Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are a very dangerous team in the backcourt, and Chester Frazier is gimpy. Unfortunately for Illinois, that adds up to a first round exit.

Major RTC stories: MJ Just Saved Himself $63,426…

Preview written by…Mike Lemaire

Gonzaga (# 4 seed, South, Portland pod)

vs. Akron (#13)
March 19th, 7:25 P.M.

Vegas Line: Gonzaga -13

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Spokane, Washington
Conference: WCC, won the conference tournament
Coach: Mark Few, 262-65 at Gonzaga
08-09 Record: 26-5, 14-0
Last 12 Games: 11-1, 9-game winning streak
Best Win: 83-74 v. Tennessee, November 30th
Worst Loss: 70-77 v. Portland State, December 23rd
Off. Efficiency Rating: 117.9/ 5th overall
Def. Efficiency Rating: 88.4/ 12th overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Jeremy Pargo- 9.8 points/game, 5.1 assists/game, 2/1 assist/turnover, 3.5 rebounds/game; Josh Heytvelt- 14.9 points/game, 6.7 rebounds/game, 0.9 blocks/game, 54.5 FG%

Unsung Hero: Steven Gray- 9.3 points/game, 3.1 rebounds/game, 2 assists/game, 36.4 3PT%

Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Austin Daye/ projected 50th overall….Josh Heytvelt/ projected 59th overall

Key Injuries: None

Depth: 27.3%/ 255th overall

Achilles Heel: At the beginning of the season, this looked like the best team the Gonzaga Bulldogs have ever fielded in terms of sheer talent on the roster. But the ‘Zags don’t really have a go-to scorer. Heytvelt is their leading scorer, but in a tight game late it is hard to see Mark Few ordering the ball to be fed to Heytvelt and let him take over. The team lacks a true star player that they can go to in crunch time.

Will Make a Deep Run if… Maybe the NCAA tournament will inspire Austin Daye to play up to his potential. The ‘Zags don’t desperately need Daye to be awesome to have success, but if he begins to play the way he is capable of, the ‘Zags will be a very tough team to stop. They have all the important pieces of a Final Four team, but they need a true scorer, and Daye has the potential to do it.

Will Make an Early Exit if… When the ‘Zags have struggled this season, it has been against supremely athletic teams. For example, Mark Few’s team looked overmatched when they got blown out by Memphis at home. If they run into a team like Siena in the first or second round, they could have a lot of trouble trying to guard the penetration of Siena’s athletic wing players.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2008, lost in the first round to Davidson

Streak: 10 consecutive seasons

Best NCAA Finish: They made it to the Elite Eight in 1999 before losing to Connecticut

Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.16 wins per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: none

Distance to First Round Site: 352 miles away from Portland, Oregon

School’s Claim to Fame: Basketball?

School Wishes It Could Forget: Nothing is more embarrassing for a coach to learn that your star center would rather be at a Phish concert that playing basketball. But when Josh Heytvelt was suspended last year for marijuana and psychedelic mushrooms, that’s what Mark Few learned. The pot is a normal occurrence in the world of college sports, but the mushrooms? Was Heytvelt wearing a tie-dye Grateful Dead t-shirt as well?

Prediction: The ‘Zags looked absolutely dominant as they rolled through the West Coast Tournament, and Illinois is one of the worst five-seeds in the tournament. But if the ‘Zags make it to the Sweet 16, they will have to get through North Carolina, and they just don’t have the talent to match the ‘Heels.

Written by… Mike Lemaire

Duke (#2 seed, East, Greenboro pod)

vs. Binghamton (#15)
March 19^th, 9:40 P.M.

Vegas Line: Duke -21.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Durham, North Carolina

Conference: ACC, Won the ACC Conference Tournament

Coach: Mike Krzyzewski, 755-218 at Duke

08-09 Record: 28-6, 14-5 ACC

Last 12 Games: 9-3

Best Win: 101-91 v. Wake Forest, February 22nd

Worst Loss: 73-81 v. Michigan, December 6th

Off. Efficiency Rating: 117.6/ 6^th overall

Def. Efficiency Rating: 89.0/ 13^th overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Gerald Henderson- 16.6 points/game, 4.9 rebounds/game, 1.5 steals/game, 47.9 FG%

Unsung Hero: Lance Thomas- 5.3 points/game, 3.3 rebounds/game, 63.6 FG%

Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Gerald Henderson, projected 7^th overall

Key Injuries: None

Depth: 34.5%, 92^nd overall

Achilles Heel: Duke’s lack of a true post player since Shelden Williams left school has been well documented. But, unfortunately it is still true for Duke. Lance Thomas and Kyle Singler are the team’s best rebounders. Brian Zoubek has played well at points this season but still can’t handle a good big man.

Will Make a Deep Run if… Duke will only go as far as Gerald Henderson will take them. John Scheyer and Singler are good role players, but their offense is dependent on the drive and kick of Henderson. If Henderson has a great tournament, and Elliot Williams continues to have success running the point, the Blue Devils are a Final Four contender.

Will Make an Early Exit if…: The two biggest weaknesses of Coach K’s team is their lack of an inside presence, and the relative inexperience of Williams playing point. They will go out early if a team exploits their lack of an inside game, and pressures Williams into bad decisions. Duke’s offense is predicated on Williams making good decision and taking care of the ball, and if a defense pressures him enough, he could fold.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2008, Lost in the second round to West Virginia

Streak: 13 consecutive seasons, last time they didn’t make it was 1995.

Best NCAA Finish: National Champions in 1991, 1992, 2001

Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.51 wins per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: Dickie V. slurps the Devils constantly, and he once coached at the University of Detroit

Distance to First Round Site: 54 miles away Greensboro, North Carolina

School’s Claim to Fame: “Tricky Dick” Nixon and Cameron Crazies.

School Wishes It Could Forget: You may not remember the incident if you were living in a cave, but there were some lacrosse players at the University who were the center of a media firestorm for quite awhile. They were acquitted, but their names, and Duke’s good reputation will forever be slightly besmirched.

Prediction: So much for the Duke Swoon, the Blue Devils stormed through the ACC Tournament to take the title and earn what amounts to a home game in the first round in Greensboro. They are a Sweet 16 team for sure, but getting by Villanova or UCLA to get to the Elite Eight will be too much for the Blue Devils.

Preview written by… Mike Lemaire

Clemson (#7 seed, South, Kansas City pod)

vs. Michigan (#10 seed)

Thursday, March 19th, 7:10 P.M.

Vegas Line: Clemson -5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Clemson, South Carolina

Conference: ACC, at-large bid

Coach: Oliver Purnell, 94-70 at Clemson

08-09 Record: 23-8, 9-8 ACC

Last 12 Games: 6-6

Best Win: 74-47 v. Duke, February 3rd

Worst Loss: 81-86 v. Georgia Tech, March 12^th in ACC Tournament

Off. Efficiency Rating: 117.4/ 9^th overall

Def. Efficiency Rating: 94.1/ 51^st overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Trevor Booker- 15.3 points/game, 9.7 rebounds/game, 2.0 blocks/game, 56.7 FG%; KC Rivers- 14.2 points/game, 5.9 rebounds/game, 1.7 steals/game

Unsung Hero: Jerai Grant- 4.7 points/game, 3.1 rebounds/game, 1.4 blocks/game, 67.1 FG%

Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Trevor Booker, projected 51^st overall

Key Injuries: None

Depth: 30.6%/ 183^rd overall

Achilles Heel: This year is a different Clemson team than the ones that have faltered down the stretch, they play better defense and have more talent. But, they don’t have a true point guard or distributor. Demontez Stitt plays the role admirably, but he is better suited creating from the wing. No one on the team who plays meaningful minutes has a assist/turnover ratio better that Stitt’s 1.5/1.

Will Make a Deep Run if… The team will be fine as long as they play defense. The Tigers should have been playing in the second round last year but let Villanova shoot a ton of three-pointers and make a run to win. They have a very long and deep front court, and a solid group of wing players that will make plays, so Clemson really just needs to make sure they step up the defensive intensity.

Will Make an Early Exit if… If the Tigers don’t guard the perimeter well, they will be in trouble. They didn’t guard it well in losses to Virginia and then Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament, but they have the players who lockdown wing players. The Big Dance is the best place for a good shooter to get hot, and Clemson needs to make sure that doesn’t happen.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2008, Lost to Villanova in the first round

Streak: 2

Best NCAA Finish: In 1980, the Tigers made it to the Elite Eight before losing to UCLA

Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): n/a

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None.

Distance to First Round Site: 913 miles away from Kansas City, Missouri

School’s Claim to Fame: Death Valley and Howard’s Rock. Apologies to Oliver Purnell, but Clemson will always be a football school and no one who has ever been to Death Valley has ever said they haven’t enjoyed their trip. The place is incredibly loud, and the fans are incredibly drunk passionate. Howard’s Rock is the rock the players touch before they run down the hill, and would be protected like the President if a rival school tried to mess with it.

School Wishes It Could Forget: The Larry Shyatt era.

Prediction: Michigan doesn’t really belong in the NCAA tournament, so Clemson should run them over, but beating Oklahoma will be much harder. The Tigers have the talent and potential to do so, but they will need to play the way they did in the middle of the season, not the way they did down the stretch.

Preview written by… Mike Lemaire

BUTLER (#9 seed, South, Greensboro pod)

vs. LSU (#8 seed)

March 19^th, 12:20 P.M.

Vegas Line: LSU -2

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Indianapolis, Indiana

Conference: Horizon League, at-large bid

Coach: Brad Stevens, 55-8 at Butler

08-09 Record: 25-4, 15-3

Last 12 Games: 8-4

Best Win: 74-65 at Xavier, December 23rd

Worst Loss: 67-71 v. Loyola (Ill.), February 15th

Off. Efficiency Rating: 109.6/ 59^th overall

Def. Efficiency Rating: 93.2/ 46^th overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Matt Howard- 14.6 points/game, 6.7 rebounds/game, 1.5 blocks/game, 54.8% FG; Gordon Hayward- 13.2 points/game, 6.5 rebounds/game, 1.5 steals/game, 44.5% 3PT

Unsung Hero: · Ronald Nored- 26.9 minutes/game, 4.2 points/game, 3.1 rebounds/game, 2.6 assists/game,

Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): None

Key Injuries: None

Depth: 26.4%, 275^th overall

Achilles Heel: The Bulldogs have never been a particularly tall team, but this year is no exception. The team’s two best “big” men are Howard and Hayward, both of whom are about 6-foot-8 and do a great job on the glass for their size. If Howard or Hayward is not having a great game, the team is in trouble. Shelvin Mack and Willie Veasley are good players, but they can go cold quickly as well (see Cleveland State).

Will Make a Deep Run if…:

They will make a deep run if they play like they did in the middle of the season. Say what you want about Brad Stevens’ club but they always play fundamental basketball, and they never fold under pressure. Butler will be a tough team to stop if they crash the glass, and run their offense effectively.
Will Make an Early Exit if…:

However, this team is also a candidate for an early exit, moreso than Bulldog teams of the past. They could go out in the first round if Hayward struggles like he did in the Horizon Championship game, and if Veasley and Mack can’t bail the team out with their shooting, they are stagnant offensively.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2008, Lost in round of 32 to Tennessee

Streak: This will be their third consecutive appearance.

Best NCAA Finish: Sweet 16, they have done it twice (2003, 2007)

Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): n/a

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None

Distance to First Round Site: 856 miles from Greensboro, North Carolina

School’s Claim to Fame: They have one man on their alumni list everyone wishes they could have. No one else gets to say they produced Jimmy Chitwood…er, Bobby Plump, the hero of the 1954 Milan High School State Championship team. Not only did Plump give the country the first Cinderella team ever, but he helped spawn one of the greatest sports movies of all time.

School Wishes It Could Forget: In the middle of March of this past year, while campaigning in support of her mother, Chelsea Clinton stopped by Butler University. Everything was going well, until some nosy Nancy asked Ms. Clinton a question about whether the Monica Lewinsky scandal had damaged her mother’s reputation. Butler administrators probably winced when they heard the question. The Clinton’s probably won’t be taking in any games at Hinkle Fieldhouse in the near future.

Prediction: The Bulldogs are underseeded, and so they will have to play a grueling game against uber-athletic LSU. The Tigers don’t really impress with their defensive intensity and discipline. Butler will get by the Bayou Bengals, but with Ty Lawson back, they won’t be able to take down the Tar Heels.

Preview written by… Mike Lemaire

Arizona St. (#6 seed, South, Miami pod)

vs. Temple (#11 seed)

March 20^th, at 2:45 P.M

Vegas Line: Arizona St. -5.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Tempe, Arizona

Conference: Pac-10, at-large bid

Coach: Herb Sendek, 51-42 at Arizona State

08-09 Record: 24-9, 13-8 PAC-10

Last 12 Games: 8-4

Best Win: 74-67, v. UCLA, February 12th

Worst Loss: 64-74, v. Stanford, March 5th

Off. Efficiency Rating: 116.6/ 12^th overall

Def. Efficiency Rating: 91.7/ 30^th overall

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): James Harden, 20.8 points/game, 5.4 rebounds/game, 4.1 assists/game, 50.4% FG; Jeff Pendergraph, 14.4 points/game, 8.5 rebounds/game, 66.5% FG

Unsung Hero: ·Derek Glasser, 8.0 points/game, 4.9 assists/game, 2.2/1 assists/turnover, 40.9% 3PT

Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): James Harden, projected 4^th overall

Key Injuries: Jamelle McMillan (day-to-day)

Depth: 19.9%/337^th overall, and McMillan is included in that statistic.

Achilles Heel: 337^th overall as far as bench minutes are concerned is not going to cut it for Herb Sendek;s club. Even scarier is that the players that do come off the bench are not real difference makers, and their best bench player is McMillan. The Sun Devils will only go eight deep if they absolutely have to.

Will Make a Deep Run if…: If James Harden performs like he has all season, if the role players like Glasser and Rihard Kuksiks make their three-pointers, and if Jeff Pendergraph is able to assert himself in the paint, then the Sun Devils could make a deep run. Similar to Duke, Arizona State is thin inside and will need Pendergraph to play huge.

Will Make an Early Exit if…: If they play an athletic team that loves to push the tempo. The Sun Devils aren’t a bad defensive team, but they can be exploited at certain positions (see Glasser and Kuksiks). If a team gets out and runs against them the Sun Devils will eventually get tired, and there won’t be anyone on the bench to bail them out.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2003, Lost in 2^nd round to Kansas (76-108)

Streak: 1

Best NCAA Finish: They made the Elite Eight in 1975.

Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): n/a

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None

Distance to First Round Site: 2362 miles away from Miami, Florida

School’s Claim to Fame: Arizona State is a staple in the Top 10 of pretty much every “party” school ranking that has ever been conducted. The warm weather, attractive coed population, and large undergrad enrollment make it a good place to enroll if you are looking for fun and sun/

School Wishes It Could Forget: Along the same line, be careful what you wish for. Although there are tons of babes on campus, the Sun Devils ranked 119th out of 139^th in Trojan Condom’s 2008 Sexual Health Report Card. Still better than the basketball team’s depth though.

Prediction: Often, teams that rely so heavily on one player are good bets to make an early exit, even if that player is as good as James Harden. The Sun Devils have a lot of moxie, and point guard Derek Glasser is much better at running the team than people give him credit for. Aside from the loss to USC, they are peaking at the right time and should probably be able to escape a Temple team that doesn’t belong in the tournament. But if they meet Syracuse in the second round their lack of depth will shine through, and they will go down,

Preview written by… Mike Lemaire

RTC asked its legion of correspondents, charlatans, sycophants, toadies and other hangers-on to send us their very favorite March Madness memory,  something that had a visceral effect on who they are as a person and college basketball fan today.  Not surprisingly, many of the submissions were excellent and if you’re not fired up reading them, then you need to head back over to PerezHilton for the rest of this month.  We’ve chosen the sixteen best, and we’ll be counting them down over the next two weeks as we approach the 2009 NCAA Tournament.

An NCAA victory over Duke tastes a little sweeter, and a loss to the Devils hurts a little more.  Nobody gets passions as high as Coach K’s Dookies, and we received two submissions that perfectly illustrate that range of emotions.

We Shocked the World!!! (submitted by Rob Dauster of Ballin is a Habit)

“Just when people say you can’t, UCan. And UConn has won the national championship.” – Jim Nantz

I’ll never forget those words. It was just three days before my 14th birthday. Growing up in Connecticut, we never really had a pro sports team, so we latched on to Jim Calhoun‘s UConn Huskies. Despite being a team of national relevance for a number of years, Calhoun had never gotten his team to the Final Four. He finally broke through in 1999, barely hanging on against 10 seed Gonzaga in the Elite 8 before beating Ohio State for what many thought to be the right to lose to a talented Duke squad in the Finals.

Duke came in riding a 32-game winning streak (their only loss was the Cincinnati in the Great Alaska Shootout, don’t ask me why I know such things) with a roster loaded with NBA draft picks – William Avery, Trajan Langdon, Shane Battier, Elton Brand, Corey Maggette.

But the Huskies hung with Duke the whole game, trailing by just two at the half, thanks in large part to 13 points from defensive specialist Ricky Moore. The second half became the Rip Hamilton Show, as the junior with the silky smooth jumper finished his last collegiate game with 27 points.

The game ended in unbelievable fashion. With UConn up 75-74, everyone’s favorite pudge-ball Khalid El-Amin drove baseline and threw up an airball, which Trajan Langdan collected with around 15 seconds left. He brought the ball up court and tried to go one-on-one against Moore. Moore forced him into a travel. El-Amin would rattle home two free throws, setting up the finish. Langdon would once again take the inbounds and dribble into a double team before turning the ball over.

And that was it.  So what is my memory?

Seeing Khalid El-Amin screaming “WE SHOCKED THE WORLD” before jumping into Jake Voskuhl’s arms.

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Verne Lundquist Just Had an Aneurysm (submitted by Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball)

Being a big Kentucky fan most of my life, no one can forget the 1992 East Regional Final of Kentucky vs. Duke.  The game was spectacular but what made the Kentucky team so special were the players that were affectionately known as “The Unforgettables.”  Kentucky’s basketball program had been dragged through the mud four years before in a major scandal involving academic fraud and improper payments to recruits.  However, Richie Farmer, Deron Feldhaus, John Pelphrey and Sean Woods chose to stay with the program and as seniors in their first eligible appearance, they made a surprising run in the NCAA tournament that year to the regional finals against Duke.  The three-point shot has been one of the most exciting innovations in college basketball and the Cats’ love of the three-point shot is what established my love for these Wildcats. As the Wildcats drove deeper into March, I just had to watch that game.

Back in the day I had this black and white portable tv and I remember taking it to high school musical practice so I could still watch the game while we had rehearsal.  I seem to remember that Kentucky was down somewhat big (12 pts), but some key threes got them back into the game and eventually sent the game into overtime.  As they battled in overtime it was down to what appeared to be one play.  Sean Woods drove to the basket and made an awkward bank-shot with 2.1 seconds left.  I was jumping around the room like mad and thought there was no way Duke would be able to get off a good shot – Kentucky has made it back to the Final Four.  However, it was not to be.  Duke inbounded the ball length of the court and Christian Laettner hit the storied shot that is now shown every year at tournament time.  Laettner finished his 10-10 shooting and 31 point night with a storybook ending as Duke went on the next week to gain back-to-back NCAA championships.  I just said to myself over and over, “How did John Pelphrey not react fast enough to stop a 2/3 court pass to Laettner at the free throw line.  Not only that, but he just stood there and watched him shoot it.”   Oh, I so hate Duke and oh what could have been.

The game had all the drama you could ask for with the lead changing five times in the final 31 seconds of the game and both teams combining to shoot 63% in the second half and overtime.   But that final shot is what is the most recognizable and memorable part of that game.  This season Kentucky fans not only have to watch the shot again, but have to re-live the whole drama and feel the punch in the stomach again with a new commercial including Laettner and now turncoat Rick Pitino. But in the end, this game is considered by many to be the greatest college basketball game of all time.  I know I will never forget it.