1. North Carolina (27-4, 14-2) – It’s funny how the difference between a successful season can come down to one game. Had North Carolina lost to Duke at Cameron, people would’ve pointed to the Tar Heels’ lofty preseason expectations and how they came up short. Instead, Roy Williams’ squad finally showed the world just why it was ranked so high early in the season. Kendall Marshall hit shots, the defense clicked and the game felt over by the first media timeout. Now the Tar Heels have the inside track for a one-seed, owning the head-to-head victory with Michigan State that will definitely come in handy. There are still legitimate questions about North Carolina’s intensity, but if that intensity is in the ballpark of Saturday night opponents should be scared. Don’t pencil the Tar Heels into the Final Four before seeing the ACC Tournament. This team’s worst enemy until the final weekend will be itself. One person in particular to keep you eye on is Marshall. He was snubbed from first-team All-ACC (he missed by two votes), so I expect him to come out aggressively Friday. He’s also shows recent offensive improvement, coming up with two of his best performances of the year in rivalry games against NC State and Duke. When he’s taking and hitting open looks, the Tar Heels are impossible to guard.
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Technical difficulties kept us from getting this up this morning. So here goes… an Afternoon Five.

1. Tallahassee Democrat: Deividas Dulkys got a pretty special family night surprise when his family from Lithuania surprised him the day before the game by showing up at his girlfriend’s apartment. Dulkys had quite the showing at the game including aunts from Chicago and his host family from Nevada, but no one told him that his parents and sisters were going to make the trip across the globe to see him play at Florida State for the first time. Stepping back a little, the Seminoles are also looking at their best chance to win the ACC Championship in program history.
2. Wilmington Star News: Speaking of special senior nights, Ty Walker‘s was supposed to be one of redemption. After three years of falling short of expectations and an indefinite suspension that kept him out for the first semester, his senior night was supposed to represent the new leaf he turned over this year. On the basketball court he was more active than ever, blocking shots with reckless abandon and fitting in surprisingly well for his first few games back. “I know people aren’t always going to be satisfied […] but at least I gave them something,” Walker noted. His mom even surprised him by flying across the country for his senior night last week. This article from Brett Friedlander gets at Walker’s side of the story.
3. Culpepper Star-Exponent: On the heels of the New York Times look at one of college basketball’s vaguest advantages, Whitelaw Reid finds a specific case. Now without seeing more data, I’m a little skeptical. The variable is what brand of basketball teams use. The home teams choose the ball. Virginia uses Nike basketballs; Sammy Zeglinski likes Wilson. The evidence (besides Zeglinski saying it has a “spongy feel”) is that two of the senior’s best games came against Maryland, a team that uses Wilson balls. As Reid points out, the NCAA Tournament also uses Wilson balls, so we should get at least one more data point to evaluate Zeglinski’s claim.
4. Raleigh New & Observer: It’s a speculation time of year: March Madness, the NFL Draft and that sports purgatory before the NBA Playoffs and baseball season’s starts. It’s also about time to start talking about who is leaving college for the NBA. As Caulton Tudor points out, 13 of 15 All-ACC selections were underclassmen. I don’t really agree with Tudor’s rankings. Maybe I’m naive, but I think Terrell Stoglin will stick it out at least one more year in College Park. He’s far from a sure bet, and needs to show a wider range of skills to attract first round eyes. The same would apply for Glen Rice, Jr., but his indefinite suspension will definitely be a factor. I think the sure-fire departures are Harrison Barnes, John Henson and CJ Leslie. Who knows with Austin Rivers? If he gets a lottery promise, I expect him to leave (which seems likely considering the dearth of good guards this year). Still, this is something that will become very important in a few weeks.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Congratulations Brian Gregory, Mark Turgeon, Jim Larranaga and Mark Gottfried. You finished your rookie year in the ACC. For many coaches, the second year is the toughest, but Turgeon and Gregory were trying to build up programs left in disarray after Gary Williams and Paul Hewitt’s respective departures. Larranaga has plenty of talent, but he only should lose DeQuan Jones and Malcolm Grant from an already talented team; Gottfried’s team will return plenty of firepower and boasts the top recruiting class in the conference. Factor in an extra year of experience against the league titans, and we should expect more success from the conference as a whole next year.

1. Winston-Salem Journal: Friday it was confirmed that senior Ty Walker was kicked off Wake Forest’s team for “an unspecified violation of athletics-department rules.” Looking at Walker’s career as a whole, the dismissal isn’t surprising in the least. But it did feel like he turned a page on the court after coming back from a suspension last semester. His mom even flew across the country for his senior night. That’s how I lost the forest through the trees. I’m not going to rip Walker for lack of effort; nor am I going to rip Jeff Bzdelik for the punishment. In the end, it seems like a sad but fitting end to the former five-star recruit’s career.
2. Blogger So Dear: Speaking of Wake Forest, this is an honest take on the school’s basketball program, assessing blame where it’s due. I would be a little harsher on Bzdelik for the last couple of years, but I also think he deserves next year to show what he can do with no offcourt distractions and a couple of recruiting classes he brought in himself.
3. Atlanta Journal Constitution: The ACC Tournament is back in Atlanta for the sixth time this year. But as Tim Tucker points out, it’s probably going to be more difficult for Atlanta to attract the conference tournament after Pittsburgh and Syracuse deepen the ACC’s footprint in the north. Personally, I’m very happy the conference decided on Philips Arena, which seats just under 20,000 people, instead of the Georgia Dome (where the tournament was supposed to be originally), which has a full capacity of over 70,000 (though that was significantly reduced the two times the ACC Tournament took place there). The bottom line is that this year is Atlanta’s chance to sell the conference on the Philips Arena experience in order to compete with Madison Square Garden or the Verizon Center down the road.
4. Fox Sports Florida: The ACC desperately needs Miami and/or NC State to step up this weekend. The conference is looking squarely at four NCAA bids if the Hurricanes and Wolfpack meet early exits. If not for a season sweep of Miami, Mark Gottfried’s squad would be in some serious trouble (and Miami would probably be in a much stronger position for an at-large bid). But the fact is that both teams have very weak resumes and need a good win to push the ACC to five bids.
5. Burlington Times-News: I’m officially tired of these articles bemoaning the lost days of a great ACC. The facts are simple: The ACC is down right now, and most of the dip is due to a coincidence that left eight of the 12 member schools looking for new coaches over the last couple of years. That’s it. Combine that with back-to-back titles from Tobacco Road and you have a recipe for the Duke – North Carolina rivalry overshadowing an under-performing league. It’s true that the hype for the rivalry always made other ACC fans cringe, but give the new coaches some time. As they build successful programs, ESPN will give more air time to other schools.

EXTRA: Here’s the ACC Tournament bracket. I think Miami and NC State have very good chances to win two games and Wake Forest has its best chance to win a game for the first time since 2007.

1. On Friday, Seth Davis published a series of scouting reports on teams from coaches within their own conference. While none of the analysis will be groundbreaking to those who follow the sport closely it is interesting to see how brutally honest some of these coaches are. For example, a Big East coach said of Connecticut, “The Huskies don’t run offense. I mean they literally don’t run a fricking offense.” We are assuming the coaches know many of these things about their own team, but we would be interested to know if any of the players and/or coaches read these comments and try to make a change based on them. We doubt it, but we imagine that at least a few of them will read these comments and be affected by them at least subconsciously.
2. If you are the coach du jour this March, you might be wise to consider the tale of Chris Lowery, who in 2007 was one of the hottest coaches in the country and then was fired by Southern Illinois on Friday. Lowery, who has two years remaining on a contract that is scheduled to pay him more than $5 million with a buyout of approximately $1.5 million, took the school to the Sweet 16 in 2007, but finished just 145-116 in eight seasons there. We are not sure where Lowery goes from here, but the hot rumor right now is that Southern Illinois plans to go after its former coach Bruce Weber if (more likely when) he is fired from Illinois.
3. After going through hundreds of resumes Air Force decided the best option for their next coach was their current coach and on Saturday they announced that they were removing the interim label from the title of Dave Pilipovich to make him their new head coach. Citing a desire to establish continuity for the team and his win over a San Diego State team that was ranked in the top 15 at the time (and leaving out his 1-5 record in his other games), the school opted to retain Pilipovich who will have his first head coaching job after working for 26 years as an assistant.
4. It takes a special kind of dumb to get kicked off the team with one regular season game remaining in your college career, but apparently Ty Walker is. The 7-foot tall center was dismissed from the Wake Forest team with just one regular season game remaining in his college career for an undisclosed violation of departmental policy. Walker’s troubles in college have been well-documented and his decline from one of the top recruits in the country coming into college to a guy who gets kicked off the team just before his college career is over could be a case study in how not to become a professional basketball player.
5. It seems like every year we link to a piece on Lenny Cooke, a high school legend who was famously destroyed at ABCD Camp in 2001 by some kid named LeBron. This year’s installment/update comes from The New York Times and takes a look at what has gone wrong in Cooke’s life. While you could probably write a similar story about many high school athletes, few carry the brand-name appeal to people of a certain generation (like the one of the two editors here) as Cooke. For those of you who are not familiar with Cooke’s story, it is essentially similar to the one that is told in Hoop Dreams except that Cooke was considered more of a sure-fire NBA prospect than William Gates ever was.

It’s the last day of the regular season, but today will inevitably pass in yesterday’s shadow. While Miami managed to push away Boston College to make its bid for the last bye in the conference tournament, Georgia Tech pulled itself out of the conference cellar with a home court win against Wake Forest. At the top of the conference, however, North Carolina made the biggest play, defeating Duke at Cameron Indoor by 18 points and winning the regular season title outright. All five Tar Heel starters scored double digits with Tyler Zeller, John Henson, and Kendall Marshall all putting up double-doubles. Despite a second half swoon, North Carolina displayed a resiliency that the team hadn’t yet demonstrated against elite competition. Yesterday did a lot to erase those doubts and set up a post-season run.

North Carolina Vaulted Over Duke For The Regular Season Title (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

Redemption vs. Legitimacy.

• Clemson at #19 Florida State at Noon on ESPN2

Florida State has already wrapped up the third seed in the conference tournament, but this game offers a chance at redemption for the Seminoles who endured the early season indignity of a loss to Clemson. For the Tigers, there is a lot more at sake. Somehow, the Tigers have played their way into borderline post-season relevance. If the Tigers can win against Florida State and beat some good teams in the ACC tournament, Clemson has an outside shot at making the NCAA Tournament, an outcome that seemed unlikely a month ago. The Tigers have played well done the stretch, but a bid still seems unlikely. Still, as Jeff Foxworthy once mused, the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

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A Totally Underhyped Game

• North Carolina at Duke at 7:00 PM on ESPN

Thte Last Meeting Ended With a Magical Shot ((AP/Jim R. Bounds)

I wish more people knew about this game. Despite the obscurity of each school’s basketball program, these two teams have quietly cultivated a solid if yet underexposed rivalry. When these teams met earlier this season, this hidden gem of a rivalry resulted in an amazing comeback and an impressive buzzer-beater by freshman Austin Rivers. It was quite a highlight, and I only wish that the game had been televised so you would have had the opportunity to glimpse this rare, unseen footage (we found a long forgotten image above). Playing at Cameron Indoor Stadium, North Carolina will have a chance to avenge the shocking loss and win the regular season conference title.

For Duke, replicating its earlier success against North Carolina may be a challenge. The Blue Devils shot 36 three-pointers and connected on 14 of them. Despite the stunning volume of treys, North Carolina’s perimeter defense still remains suspect, and this might be an easier feat to achieve than getting to the line 26 times. Over the last four years only three team-seasons have matched UNC’s opponent free throw rate of 21.1%. Duke will be hard-pressed to replicate the 41.9% mark they managed in Chapel Hill. If Duke is going to win the rematch, I think the Devils will have to find other ways to win. I expect this game to be very close, and at home, it’s hard to pick against Duke. On the other hand, Tyler Zeller has been cutting a swath of destruction across the ACC to close out his final college campaign. Zeller has never won in Cameron (he was injured in 2009) and after his embarrassing role in the loss in Chapel Hill (an inadvertent tip-in and a late contest on Rivers’ shot), I’d be afraid to stand in his way.

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With the ACC Tournament quickly approaching with one game separating everyone from Atlanta. Right now that means there’s a real traffic jam of schools going for the fourth seed (Virginia, Miami, NC State and Clemson) and the ninth seed (Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest). Below is a chart that hopefully makes sense of everything. A big shout-out to Patrick Stevans, who put together the scenarios.

Warning: it gets pretty complicated.

ACC Tournament Seeding Scenarios

Duke handily blew out Wake Forest last night, though the score reflects Wake Forest’s desperate and ultimately futile rally rather than the early domination inflicted at the hands of the Blue Devils. Despite the high stakes of this time of the year, this game didn’t change anyone’s fortunes. Tonight, however, there is one game with serious bubble implications as well as a few other prizes on the line.

Duke Held On to Win At Wake Forest Last Night (Herald-Sun)

The Battle of the Bubble

• Miami at North Carolina State at 9:00 PM on FSN

Before the Wolfpack’s current four-game losing streak, it looked like NC State had a fairly good chance at getting into the NCAA Tournament. Now, the team stands on the outside looking in with increasingly few chances to get big wins. Miami, on the other hand, looks like they may well be on their way to the Big Dance after handily beating the Seminoles on Sunday. The Wolfpack beat the Hurricanes earlier in the season and if they want to have even an outside chance at Tournament play, they have to win this game. Miami probably has to win this game too, but the mood is definitely a little more tense in Raleigh. With the reinstatement of Reggie Johnson, who sat out against Florida State, the eager Hurricanes will be ready to cope with the athletic talent of NC State. Both teams will have work to do after this game regardless of the outcome, but tonight is a good place to start.

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1. The Classical: This is a terrific article on Skip Prosser and his legacy at Wake Forest. Media and fans alike reference the Demon Deacons’ recent history of success a lot. They also talk about Dino Gaudio with mixed opinions. But rarely do they really talk about Skip Prosser. Maybe it was just too soon to have an honest conversation, but his death became the story. Matt Gallagher’s piece looks at the hope Prosser brought with him to Winston-Salem, the pride, the success and eventually the huge hole he so tragically left behind. If you don’t read anything else today, read this.
2. ACC Sports Journal: Speaking of Wake Forest, Ron Wellman is in a tough spot. Lawrence Joel Memorial Coliseum is outdated and too large. Recently, reports surfaced that Wake Forest might buy the arena from Winston-Salem. It was originally built to compete with the Greensboro Coliseum, but falls in the awkward 14,000-seat range that’s much too big for small “college” bands, but far too small for the big-time acts. If there was more interest, a large capital campaign might allow for a new arena to be built, but it’s going to be hard to raise ~$100 million for basketball right now. Between the lack of success on the court and the economy, now is just not the right time.
3. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: It may not be getting nearly as much publicity as Duke and North Carolina, but the Georgia Tech – Boston College battle tonight is for last place in the ACC. The bad news for the Yellow Jackets is they will be without their best player, as Glen Rice, Jr., will be suspended for the game. That said, they’re coming off their best win of the season against Maryland (without Rice), and beating the Eagles by four at home three weeks ago. Can they win their first road game since stunning NC State early in conference play? Is Brian Gregory’s system starting to take root? Tune into Raycom or ESPN3 at 7:00 PM to find out.
4. Orlando Sentinel: Florida State struggled mightily to defend the perimeter against Duke and Miami. Before they get too down on their effort, I want to point them to a series of articles that Ken Pomeroy has posted recently on defense’s effect (or lack thereof) on three-point percentage. Those should be comforting, but don’t ignore the problem. Miami played small-ball against FSU because of Reggie Johnson’s injury, which proved difficult for the Florida State bigs to guard — especially on the perimeter. Duke also played an extra-three-point-threat-heavy offense because of Plumlee foul trouble. Is playing small the best way to beat the Seminoles?
5. Duke Basketball Report: In honor of the date, Barry Jacobs took a look at all of the leap day games in ACC history. Duke is 3-1 in February 29 match-ups, with two wins coming against North Carolina. Meanwhile NC State has played seven times, losing four games on this date.

EXTRA: Jay Smith wrote an op-ed piece in the Raleigh News & Observer on the importance of the “student” half of student-athlete. The piece is directed specifically at North Carolina after there was backlash against a “statement of athletic principles” from a group of North Carolina professors. In the world of high-major athletics, my guess is that professors at most other ACC schools would agree. I personally think Smith undercuts the value of athletics, but I also understand his frustration.

EXTRA EXTRA: If you missed Duke’s game against Wake Forest last night, you missed the announcers and Blue Devils checking out late in the second half, as the Demon Deacons nearly erased a 23-point lead with a 19-2 run. Despite the remarkable run, the announcers kept talking about Saturday’s game. (h/t @RnR_NCSU)

We are in the home stretch of the regular season. It would be sad if that didn’t mean that tournament play is in the air. After a high stakes weekend where Miami made its case for the big tournament while Virginia and North Carolina State faltered at a critical moment, this week kicks off with a fairly lopsided matchup.

The Infernal Showdown

• #7 Duke at Wake Forest at 9:00 PM on ESPNU

The last true road game of the season for Duke, the Blue Devils need to win this game to contend for a #1 seed. Duke should be more than up for the task, but they come into Winston Salem playing a Wake Forest team that has nothing to lose. After last year’s miserable season, the Demon Deacon’s forward progress is admirable, but when push comes to shove, this is a team that has only won four conference games. After a red hot start, Travis McKie has cooled down. Actually, outside of the still-incandescent C. J. Harris, the whole team has cooled off. With their season heading nowhere fast, Wake Forest doesn’t have much to do outside of ruin Duke’s day and make Nikita Mescheriakov and Ty Walker‘s Senior Night memorable. With the worst defense in the league and one of the worst offenses, Wake Forest would need an exceptional game (marked by frequent trips to the line, effective perimeter defense, and a lot of luck) to surprise the Devils. Still, it’s the last week of the regular season and strange things happen when teams play for pride.