Ryan Kish of George Mason Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Colonial Athletic Conference (CAA).
Power rankings:
Virginia Commonwealth (5-3)
George Mason (6-2)
Hofstra (6-1)
Northeastern (4-4)
Old Dominion (3-3)
Georgia State (3-5)
Towson (4-4)
James Madison (4-4)
Drexel (2-2)
UNC-W (3-6)
William & Mary (3-6)
Delaware (2-6)
Teams doing well
Hofstra: So far the Pride have been the surprise of the CAA posting a league-best 6-1 record. After losing a lot of scoring from last year’s team this team was difficult to project. They haven’t really beaten anybody worthwhile on the out of conference slate but they had a pretty decisive victory over Towson on Saturday to start off 1-0 in the conference.
News & Notes. One piece of news worth reporting tonight. The NCAA denied USC transfer Alex Stepheson’s (from UNC) request to waive the requirement that he sit out this season. He petitioned to the NCAA based on the poor health of his father (similar to Tyler Smith at Tennessee last year), but the powers-that-be decided against him. This is a fairly big loss to Tim Floyd’s Trojans, but could we get some clarity and transparency from the NCAA on how these decisions are made?
Game of the Night.Kent St. 76, St. Louis 74 (OT). Tonight we check in on our good friend and epicurean Rick Majerus at St. Louis. Last we saw Majerus he was busily putting together some of the ugliest games in college basketball history. We hoped better for one of the seemingly nicest guys in the game this season. So far, we’re not sure things are working out much better. The Billikens scored 48 pts in a win against Missouri-St. Louis in their opener, but KSU’s Al Fisher ensured that Majerus’ team wouldn’t reach 2-0. Fisher scored 16 of his team’s 17 pts in the overtime period, including the game winner with 2.1 seconds remaining. He finished with 35/5 stls.
Upset of the Night.Mercer 78, Auburn 74. Are there any good teams in the SEC other than Tennessee? Granted, we didn’t expect much from Auburn this year, but for the second time in four days, Mercer has gone into an SEC gym in Alabama and pulled off a win (Mercer 72, Alabama 69). At this point, Mercer could lay a reasonable claim to being the best team in the SEC West. The difference in this game? Mercer outrebounded Auburn 36 to 18. Yep, you read that right. An A-Sun team with a front line that goes 6’6, 6’6, and 6’8 absolutely WHIPPED an SEC team on the boards. Heart, much?
Near-Upset of the Night. Michigan St. 70, IPFW 59. With 10:47 left in the second half, the score was IPFW 45-44 (what is it with Indiana and these infernal acronym schools???). A 13-0 MSU run over the next five minutes salted away the game for the Spartans. Somehow IPFW convinced Izzo to come to their place, and he almost seriously regretted it tonight. Raymar Morgan (22/6) led the way for MSU, who did not shoot the ball well (43% FG; 27% 3FG), and didn’t really defend all that well either (IPFW shot 46%). Props to former Hoosier Dane Fife’s team for throwing a mild scare into a top ten team.
Other Games of Mild Interest.
Wake Forest 120, UNC-Wilmington 88. Well, we know Wake can score (214 pts in two games). But can they defend (allowed 48% tonight)? Jeff Teague had 31, James Johnson 25, and AFA 11/12/5 assts in a blowout win.
Villanova 77, Niagara 62. Scottie Reynolds shook off a poor shooting night (4-14) by making almost all of his FTs (9-10) to help Villanova hold off a team that just wouldn’t go away. Corey Fisher added 15/6.
Butler 64, Ball St. 55. Butler’s Matt Howard contributed 15/6 in a typical home win for the Bulldogs, who are holding opponents to 35% shooting so far this season.
On Tap Thursday (all times EST). Sigh… another bunch of games we can’t wach b/c they’re on the U.
Virginia Tech (-10.5) v. Fairfield (ESPNU) – 11am (PR Tipoff)
Xavier (-4) v. Missouri (ESPNU) – 1pm (PR Tipoff)
Memphis (-21.5) v. UT-Chattanooga – 4:30pm (PR Tipoff)
Duke (-12.5) v. S. Illinois (ESPN2 & 360) – 7pm (CvC)
USC (-8) v. Seton Hall (ESPNU) – 7pm (PR Tipoff)
Florida v. S. Utah (ESPN FC & 360) – 8pm
Oklahoma St. (-7.5) v. Tulsa (ESPN FC & 360) – 8pm
Ryan Kish of George Mason Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Colonial Athletic Conference (CAA).
Predicted order of finish:
VCU
Northeastern
George Mason
Old Dominion
Delaware
Georgia State
Hofstra
James Madison
William & Mary
UNC-Wilmington
Towson
Drexel
WYN2K. Last season was a letdown for the CAA faithful after two seasons of multiple bids and tournament wins over historical powerhouses to becoming a single bid conference with that team losing in a first round rout. The 2006 and 2007 NCAA tournament victories from George Mason and VCU have set the bar for this conference so that now just getting to the NCAA tournament and avoiding a blowout isn’t the criteria for a successful season anymore. Last season George Mason looked as if they were riding that magic carpet again, running through the CAA tournament and snagging that automatic bid after a rollercoaster season, only to be sent home early from the Big Dance by the three point onslaught of Notre Dame. This conference returns 65% of its starters and has some exciting freshmen and transfers entering the mix, but are they poised for another successful March?
Predicted Champion. VCU (#10 Seed NCAA). Tough call this season, as always in the competitive CAA, but the pick has to go VCU. Last season the Rams were atop the conference standings all season, only to stumble in the conference tournament. The selection comes mostly because of the experience of head coach Anthony Grant and reigning conference MVP Eric Maynor, whose slaying of Duke in the 2007 NCAA Tournament might have just been a preview of things to come as he enters his senior year. Sophomore Larry Sanders is another name to watch for this Rams squad as a defensive force in the front court. Last season Sanders only started half of the season’s games yet led the team in rebounding (5.2) and blocked shots (3.0). Speaking of Maynor…
Others Considered. Not to be overlooked are the Huskies of Northeastern who return their entire starting lineup and top nine scorers from last season including Matt Janning who could challenge Eric Maynor for conference MVP. Old Dominion and George Mason have been very successful programs for the conference in recent history as both are well coached and can potentially challenge the likes of VCU and Northeastern. Make no mistake that this could be another season for the CAA in which an ankle sprain or two in March could determine the conference champion.
Newcomers. Last season Delaware was atop the standings for most of the season with the success brought on by transfers Marc Egerson (Georgetown) and Jim Ledsome (Nebraska) becoming eligible. Look for the same thing to happen at Georgia State this season. Head coach Rod Barnes (2001 Naismith Coach of the Year), who had to endure a season watching his reserve team of transfer players best his team’s current starters each practice, could be the CAA’s hot new coach this season. Georgia State returns all-CAA guard Leonard Mendez (16 ppg) who will be surrounded by big school talent with the additions of Trey Hampton and Xavier Hansbro (former player of Barnes at Ole Miss), point guard Joe Dukes (Wake Forest), forward Bernard Rimmer (Mississippi State) and guard Dante Curry (South Florida). George Mason and UNCW had the best recruiting success this past off-season. Mason was able to nab point guard Andre Cornelius and forward Ryan Pearson from the lure of the BCS schools while UNCW locked up forward Kevon Moore and guard Jerel Stephson. All of these are players that could be playing in bigger conferences and are likely the most Division I ready freshmen entering the CAA this year.
Games to Watch.
George Mason at VCU (01.24.09)
Northeastern at VCU (01.28.09)
VCU at Old Dominion (02.14.09)
Northeastern at George Mason (02.14.09)
Old Dominion at Northeastern (02.28.09)
RPI Booster Games. The CAA has had success in recent years against out of conferences foes, both mid-major and BCS. This season the conference favorites don’t have a whole lot of opportunity to make a splash early on but their definitely is some winnable games against some notable programs that could start the multiple bid talk early.
James Madison at Davidson (11.17.08)
Georgia State at Georgia Tech (12.17.08)
VCU at Oklahoma (12.20.08)
Winthrop at Old Dominion (12.20.08)
Northeastern at Indiana (12.22.08)
George Mason at Dayton (12.30.08)
Northeastern at Memphis (12.31.08)
Odds of Multiple NCAA Bids. Fairly likely. VCU has a real chance of winning an at-large bid this season should they not grab the automatic bid from the conference tournament. Northeastern’s tough schedule could hinder them from a possible at-large birth. Starting at the end of November the Huskies are on the road five of six games before heading into conference play. Ouch. George Mason and Old Dominion don’t have much on the OOC slate which would mean they don’t have a lot of margin for error in the early part of their schedules. With the bottom half of the conference steadily improving, the RPI numbers could be good enough to get a team an at-large bid if they have between 14-16 conference wins.
65 Team Era. From 1987-2005, the CAA was a one-bid league. Of course, that changed in a big way in 2006, when two teams were invited to the NCAA Tournament and George Mason became the greatest Cinderella to make the F4 in history. Two more teams were invited in 2007, and while only George Mason was invited in 2008, there’s no reason to think that the CAA is not a conference generally on the rise. The CAA is 15-27 (.357) in the era, which definitely ranks it as one of the higher mid-major conferences. Hey, we gotta throw it in – this never gets old…
Final Thoughts. Last season proved that the depth of this conference is improving as annual bottom-feeders James Madison, Delaware and William & Mary all made noise at some point in the season. Look for that trend to continue as even the newest CAA members Georgia State and Northeastern could be contending for the top of the standings come March. That is not to say the big boys of the conference have declined. George Mason, VCU, Old Dominion, and UNCW all bring more talent this season than the conference has ever seen. The experience of the coaches on the sideline this season is a big asset for this conference and could spell trouble for opposing teams at the Big Dance. The team(s) that make it to the Big Dance this season could be poised for some not-so-much of an upset victories.
As the Wake Forest community struggles to begin the healing process after the shocking death of Coach Skip Prosser last week, fans and alumni are left wondering what will happen next? While there’s a standard protocol in place for when a coach retires, leaves for another program or simply gets fired, there really isn’t one for something like this. Wake’s AD Ron Wellman is facing some tough internal conflicts:
When is the appropriate time to begin talking about replacing a man that was so dear to the campus community?
How do you strike a proper balance between respect for the man’s family and legacy while also working in the best long-term interests of the school?
What do you say to the players and recruits about the direction in which the program will be going, as their lives and futures are most impacted by your immediate decisions?
Wellman Has a Difficult Road Ahead to Navigate
We don’t envy Wellman’s position, as he is facing an extremely precarious situation. Any decision made too rashly or emotionally could negatively affect the basketball (and overall sports) program for the next decade. Any decision made too callously or calculatingly could result in a negative undercurrent that could also tarnish the integrity of the school and program. The key for Wellman, as when he hired Prosser and football coach Jim Grobe, is to find a situation that appropriately balances all factors to the greatest extent possible. MUCH easier said than done.
The Wake Forest message boards have already been buzzing about possible replacements for Coach Prosser, and as expected, they have fallen into two camps. As best we can ballpark it, from half to two-thirds of Wake fans would like to see Wellman promote from within, giving either of Prosser’s assistant coaches Dino Gaudio or Jeff Battle a chance to lead the program without the dreaded “interim” tag attached. There are a couple of recent precedents for this course of action – Northwestern promoted its top assistant Pat Fitzgerald when its head football coach, Randy Walker, unexpectedly died in July 2006. Indiana did likewise with Bill Lynch when its head football coach, Terry Hoeppner, died of a brain tumor in June 2007. Wellman may feel less pressure to make this move with the announcement today that the vaunted “AT&T” class of 2008 are expected to keep their verbal commitments to the school.
The remainder would like to see Wellman open up a national search for a new coach. Despite the lateness of the season in the coaching carousel, there is a reasonable expectation that some coaches would leave their current programs mid-stream in order to have an opportunity at an ACC school with a top-rated recruiting class set to arrive. The most commonly discussed names (with positives and negatives below) are:
Mike Montgomery – former head coach of Stanford (1986-2004) and the Golden State Warriors (2004-06)
Monty is the only former D1 coach out there who is currently available.
He fits the “profile” in that he ran a clean program in a strict academic environment at a small private school competing in a BCS conference.
Very successful at Stanford and Montana (25 winning seasons in 26 years), including a F4 appearance in 1998.
Would a long-time California guy want to move to the east coast?
He is sixty years old – would he have the requisite drive and/or interest at this point in his life?
Can Wake Lure Monty out of Retirement?
Anthony Grant – current VCU head coach (2006-present) and former uber-recruiter under Billy Donovan at Florida (1996-2006)
Clearly he’s on the fast track to a major job – it’s simply a matter of when and where?
Plays an exciting uptempo style of ball honed while on staff with Billy D at Florida.
Has shown he can beat Duke in March.
Only one year of collegiate head coaching experience (although a very good year at VCU).
41 years old – inexperienced, but potential to become Wake’s coach for the next 25 years.
How About Anthony Grant?
Gregg Marshall – current Wichita St. head coach (2007) and former Winthrop head coach (1998-2007)
A (South) Carolina guy who is familiar with the ins and outs of recruiting in the area as well as the ACC.
Just took a job with Wichita St. in April 2007 after nine very successful seasons at Winthrop – too disruptive and unfair to WSU?
Style of play could be a problem – Wake fans tend to want to play uptempo basketball, and Marshall’s teams are slower than Xmas.
44 years old, but experienced and very successful considering he was at a Big South school for nine seasons (7 NCAA appearances)
Bob McKillop – current Davidson head coach (1989-present)
Another coach familiar with the landscape of the ACC, having worked and recruited in the area for nearly two decades.
Tremendous success at a small academically-oriented school (4 NCAA appearances and 3 NIT appearances in the last fourteen seasons).
Brad Brownell – current Wright St. head coach (2006-present) and former UNC-Wilmington head coach (2002-06)
Another young (38 years old) up-and-comer who has had oustanding success in five short years at UNC-Wilmington (2 NCAAs in 4 seasons) and Wright St. (1 NCAA in 1 season).
Roots are in the midwest although he spent four recent years in North Carolina, so he should understand the lay of the land.
Or a Darkhorse Like McKillop?
Whichever direction Wellman chooses to go, he undoubtedly has his work cut out for him. Stay tuned, as we’ll be all over the story if something breaks.
