I don’t know who Baylor’s biggest basketball rival is, but I imagine whoever it was laughed at the Bears for winning the NIT last week — something about being the 69th best team in the country. Of course there are worse things than winning the NIT —  like losing in the NIT — so the Bears have that going for them. But those taunts from rival fans still have some merit. For schools like Memphis (2002 champs) or Wichita State (2011), winning the NIT can become a stepping stone to bigger and better things. But for big boy schools, schools like Baylor with top recruits falling off the bleachers, it’s hard to gauge how it feels to win its last game of the year and not capture the National Championship. In its 74-54 NIT championship game win over Iowa, Baylor played a former five-star center (Isaiah Austin), an honorable mention All-America guard in Pierre Jackson, and a quartet of former four-star recruits. That roster lost 14 games this season (including a 9-9 mark in conference play) and couldn’t beat out teams like La Salle and Ole Miss for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. There was no reason the Bears should have been in the NIT in the first place, but for the sake of this column, we’ll take a look at the highs and lows of the 2012-13 Baylor Bears.

It Wasn’t the Championship Baylor Wanted, But the NIT Was a Nice Consolation Prize

Highs

• Beating Kentucky in Rupp Arena, December 1: In early December, Kentucky wasn’t the team that would eventually fall to Robert Morris in the opening round of the NIT. Or at least, that wasn’t yet the perception. The Wildcats were #8 in the country at the time and pundits still believed their band of high school All-Americans could make another deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Baylor’s patented zone frustrated the Kentucky freshmen into a 29.6% shooting performance from the field. Pierre Jackson scored 17 points as the Bears rebounded from their loss to Charleston in the game prior.
• 86-79 Overtime Win Over Texas, January 5: With a tough non-conference season then behind them, the Bears avoided back-to-back losses with an overtime win over Texas in the Big 12 opener thanks to big games from Cory Jefferson and Pierre Jackson, who combined for 49 points.
• Senior Night Win over Kansas, March 9: Losers of eight of their previous 11, the Bears still had a chance to deny Kansas the outright regular season conference title on its Senior Night. That’s exactly what they did after Pierre Jackson scored 28 points and added 10 assists to give Kansas its worst loss in five years.

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1. The very best in high school basketball came together for the McDonald’s All-American Game in Chicago last night. Sure the West beat the East 110-99 but fans were watching to see how their favorite school’s recruits did individually. Here’s the sad part — out of the 26 players on the floor, only one was committed to a Big 12 school. Kansas commitment Wayne Selden Jr. had himself an efficient night of basketball: 13 points on 5-of-7 from the floor (2-of-4 from three), five rebounds, three assists and a steal in 18 minutes. The nation’s top uncommitted recruit, Andrew Wiggins, is also considering the Jayhawks along with Kentucky, Florida State and North Carolina. Wiggins led the East team with 19 points in the loss.
2. Speaking of which, Kansas freshman guard Anrio “Rio” Adams announced his plans to transfer closer to his home in Seattle. In a statement released by the university, Adams said, “I feel like going home and playing closer is better for me and my family. This was definitely a family decision and it was a decision I wanted to do that would be best for my situation.” In a now-deleted tweet from his account, Adams announced his list of potential landing spots as Oregon, Washington, Arizona and UCLA. We don’t know how much this news affects KU’s recruitment of Wiggins seeing how they already a scholarship open but it’s an interesting development nonetheless.
3. Crimson and Cream Machine scored an exclusive interview with Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger a few days ago. Kruger, the only coach to take five schools to the NCAA Tournament, offers his overall impression of his second season in Norman as well as a mini-preview of what is to come next year. (An aside: big ups to OU Athletic Department and Lon Kruger for making time for an interview with a fine blog like C&CM. We bloggers strive for legitimacy and little things like this can go a long way.)
4. Anyone else suffering from college hoops withdrawal? Well grab yourself a happy helping of Baylor-Iowa coming up tonight for the NIT championship. As much as people knock on Scott Drew’s coaching abilities, the fact is he’s pretty darn good in postseason tournament formats: three NCAA tournament bids, two of them Elite Eights, and now two appearances in the NIT title game). There’s also some history at stake too. The NIT has been around one year longer than the NCAA Tournament and a Baylor win would mean the first ever NIT title for a Big 12 school. I could try to give you another selling point to watch the game except that my skull would spontaneously combust if I did.
5. What’s in a contract anyway? Thanks to RedRaiderSports.com, we now know all about Tubby Smith’s deal with Texas Tech. First off, the contract will go for six years with a starting salary at $1.67 million in 2013-14. The deal will increase by $100,000 every after that. Now we’ll do a quick run through the incentives. If Tubby takes a team to the NCAA Tournament, he’ll earn $50,000 and there are more incentives for going deeper in the tournament. For example, If Tubby is able to make a Final Four on his last year of the deal (2018-19), Smith would make somewhere in the neighborhood of $2.47 million. And, if he’s able to keep the team GPA at the 3.0 level, you can add an extra $20,000 for a grand total of $2.49 million in 2019. Clearly, I have too much time on my hands to be doing this sort of thing.

The Big 12 Tournament begins this evening with a highly-anticipated, once-in-a-lifetime showdown between 13-18 West Virginia and 10-19 Texas Tech. That’s followed by Texas vs. TCU, another elite matchup that might force the people of Texas to actually tune away from spring football practice and watch basketball. Doubtful. Even though conference tournament play-in rounds are often painful, the rest of the Big 12 Tournament may be as entertaining as ever in 2013.

Kansas won the league again, but it has company this year in the form of Kansas State, which technically shared the championship despite getting swept by the Jayhawks. Oklahoma State could win it. Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. There are several important storylines — like the potential of Kansas vs. Kansas State, Part III — and a lot of candidates to cut down the nets. Here’s a few of the reasons you need to tune in this weekend:

The Favorites Are All Vulnerable

The Big 12 is a simple conference this season. There are four bad teams. There are three decent teams on the bubble. Then, there are three ranked teams that make up the top of this league: Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. The first two were “co-champs,” and the latter has the league Player of the Year in Marcus Smart. Bill Self told the Topeka Capitol-Journal that six teams in this league could win the tournament title, but realistically, these are the three teams you would want to put your money on. They’re all flawed in their own ways. Kansas, for example, sometimes forget how to score and looked bewildered in a 23-point loss at Baylor in the season finale. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the next few weeks, we’ll break down where each Big 12 bubble team stands in terms of its current NCAA Tournament resume. This time: the Baylor Bears, who are trying to make back-to-back NCAA appearances for the first time in the Scott Drew era. 

• Current Record: 16-11, 7-7 in the Big 12
• RPI: 64
• SOS: 32

Baylor’s chances at an at-large bid are waning. (Getty Images)

As is the case with most bubble teams, it’s been an up-and-down year for the Baylor Bears. The talent is there: upperclassmen, versatile big men, a dead-eye shooter and a Big 12 POY candidate. Despite a couple of brain-farts at home and maybe head coach Scott Drew, there’s still a chance to sneak into the Dance. SI’s Andy Glockner, CBS’ Jerry Palm and ESPN’s Ben Franklin all have the Bears on the outside at this point, but I’m going to do my best to try to make an unbiased case for them.

Case For An At-Large Bid: Gotta give Baylor this: They really challenged themselves in the non-conference season. They participated in the Charleston Classic that featured teams like Colorado and St. John’s. They took trips to difficult environments like Gonzaga and Kentucky. To top it off, they scheduled two home games versus 2012 Tournament teams Lehigh and BYU. (Which makes me wonder: How are strength of schedules calculated exactly?) They played Gonzaga tough on the road and lost while beating fellow bubble teams BYU, St. John’s and Kentucky at Rupp Arena. Meanwhile in conference play, they have a 10-point win against Oklahoma State which is looking better by the week.

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We are four days away from March, the Big 12 is close to solidifying its representation in the NCAA Tournament, and there are only two weeks left in the regular season. Obviously all games are important (Just ask Kansas about TCU), but for the top three teams in the standings, there isn’t much room for error in the home stretch, giving us great games like Wednesday’s double-overtime thriller between Kansas and Oklahoma State and tonight’s game in Ames between the Jayhawks and Iowa State. And that doesn’t even mention Kansas State’s trip to Waco on Saturday, where a win could potentially give the Wildcats sole possession of first place in the conference. But we’ll start with Kansas in the Power Rankings this week, who moves back to #1 after beating Oklahoma State on the road.

A Big 12 Championship Could Be On The Line Tonight For Kansas (AP)

1) Kansas (23-4, 11-3)
Previous Ranking: 2

Last Week: W 68-67 (2OT) at Oklahoma State, W 74-48 vs TCU

This Week: Tonight at Iowa State, 8:00 PM, Saturday vs West Virginia, 1:00 PM

• Rundown: Kansas is now 8-3 in the last five seasons when underdogs of four points or fewer after Wednesday’s double-overtime win over Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Tonight’s game in Ames is nearly as important and should be close as well (Kansas is favored by a single point). How about Jeff Withey against the Cowboys — 17 points, 14 rebounds and four blocks in 29 minutes. He saved Kansas’ conference title hopes, and a win tonight could begin the conversation for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament assuming there are no more TCU-like roadblocks.
• Outlook in March: A #1 seed is possible, but I think they will drop one more game through the Big 12 Tournament and snag a #2 seed. If they don’t end up in Indiana’s bracket, there’s enough talent and coaching ability for another trip to the Final Four. But they showed us in Fort Worth that they could just as easily lose to a Stony Brook or Montana in the first round.

2) Oklahoma State (20-6, 10-4)
Previous Ranking: 1

Last Week: L 68-67 (2OT) vs Kansas, W 73-57 at West Virginia

This Week: Wednesday at TCU, 6:00 PM Saturday vs Texas, 3:00 PM

• Rundown: I know the Cowboys have fewer wins than K-State (in conference and overall) and lost to the Wildcats back on January 5, but I can’t say Oklahoma State isn’t the second-best team in the conference right now. Not with a straight face, anyway. Marcus Smart might be the best freshman in the country and a First-Team All-American choice while Markel Brown is playing even better than Smart lately, averaging 18 PPG, 3.5 APG, and 5.0 RPG last week.
• Outlook in March: Wednesday’s game against Kansas was one of those games where a close loss wouldn’t have killed them in mock brackets and a win would have helped tremendously. They are still a #5 seed in most mock brackets and will probably end up as a #4 seed without any hiccups. They’re a definite Sweet Sixteen-level team that would give its region’s #1 seed a great game in the regional semifinals.

3) Kansas State (22-5, 11-3)
Previous Ranking: 3

Last Week: W 71-61 vs West Virginia, W 81-69 at Texas

This Week: Tonight vs Texas Tech, 6:00 PM, Saturday at Baylor, 6:00 PM

• Rundown: K-State’s three conference losses were very forgivable. They were swept by Kansas and lost by six at Iowa State, one of the toughest places to play in the Big 12. Their other two losses were to Michigan and Gonzaga, a pair of projected #2 seeds. They’re also winners of seven of their last eight games and have a relatively easy next three: Texas Tech, at Baylor, and TCU. The season finale against Oklahoma State in Stillwater will likely determine the Big 12 championship and whether the crown will be shared this season.
• Outlook in March: A conference championship would probably get the Wildcats a #3 seed, a perch above their consensus #4 seed right now. As noted, they don’t have any bad losses and have a pair of good wins over Florida and Oklahoma State.

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We don’t have many of these rankings left this season, but the Big 12 isn’t getting any easier to decipher as we inch closer to March (less than four weeks until Selection Sunday). The Big 12 still has a good chance to get six teams into the NCAA Tournament, but Baylor and Iowa State don’t have much margin for error the last three weeks of the regular season. The Cyclones are a consensus #10 seed and the Bears are an #11 seed on the latest Bracket Matrix mock bracket. The top of the conference is more of a mess, though. Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Kansas State are 9-3 but it doesn’t mean there isn’t distinctness with each record. For instance, Kansas State is 1-2 against the other first place teams while Kansas is 2-1. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is 1-1 but plays host to the Kansas schools in the coming weeks. They are also fortunate in that two of their final three road games are against West Virginia and TCU. And that’s why the Cowboys are #1 this week.

Tier I:

Back On Top: Marcus Smart Is Playing As Well As Anyone In The Big 12. (AP)

1) Oklahoma State (19-5, 9-3)
Previous Ranking: 2

Last Week: W 91-67 at Texas Tech, W (OT) 84-79 vs Oklahoma

This Week: Wednesday vs Kansas, 8:00 PM, Saturday at West Virginia, 1:00 PM

• Rundown: After struggling around the turn of the year and dropping three out of four, the Cowboys began playing like their talent suggests and are winners of eight of their last nine games. They have an opportunity on Wednesday to become the first Big 12 team to sweep Bill Self in a season as the Jayhawks come into Gallagher-IBA Arena, where the Cowboys have won two out of three against the Jayhawks dating back to 2007-08.
• Player Stepping Up: Freshman G Marcus Smart: Smart had 25 points, nine rebounds, and five steals in the upset over Kansas on Feb. 2. He had 23 points, seven rebounds and five steals against Texas a week later, and on Saturday against Oklahoma, Smart finished with 28 points, seven rebounds, and four assists in the overtime victory.

2) Kansas (21-4. 9-3)
Previous Ranking: 3

Last Week: W 83-62 vs Kansas State, W 73-47 vs Texas

This Week: Wednesday at Oklahoma State, 8:00 PM, Saturday vs TCU, 3:00 PM

• Rundown: It doesn’t really matter that top-10 teams have been consistently falling the last few weeks, but it can give Kansas fans a small sense of relief knowing that every perceived top team in the country has its flaws as well as the Jayhawks, who rebounded nicely last Monday with a 21-point win over Kansas State when they desperately needed a 21-point win. Wednesday’s game at Oklahoma State could decide the Big 12 championship.
• Player Stepping Up: Freshman G Ben McLemore: McLemore had 30 points against Kansas State on 9-13 shooting, a cool 69.2%. In seven of his last ten games he shot over 50% from the floor. But he can still do more, attempting 10 or less shots in six of those games.  Shoot the ball, Ben.

3) Kansas State (20-5, 9-3)
Previous Ranking: 1

Last Week: L 83-62 at Kansas, W 81-61 vs Baylor

This Week: Tonight vs West Virginia, 8:00 PM, Saturday at Texas, 7:00 PM

• Rundown: Monday’s loss at Kansas hurt, but it wasn’t all that unexpected. If they can take care of Baylor on the road on March 2, there’s still a chance the Wildcats could be 14-3 heading into the final regular season game at Oklahoma State on March 9. The remaining schedule sets up that well for K-State, with their next five games against the bottom five teams in the conference.
• Player Stepping Up: Sophomore G Angel Rodriguez: He has a 2.5:1 Assist to Turnover Ratio on the season and is averaging an efficient 19.6 PPG his last three games. In that stretch, he is 46.3% from the floor and 41.6% from three-point range.

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ESPN’s Brent Musburger and Fran Fraschilla gushed about a bunch of Baylor players during its victory over Oklahoma State Monday evening. They talked about how the 34 NBA scouts in the building surely must have noticed that forwards Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin combined for 11 blocks and two double-doubles. They talked about standout point guard Pierre Jackson, the preseason Big 12 Player of the Year and the Bears’ leading scorer. And they talked about Brady Heslip, the dead-eyed three-point shooter who has been suffering through a shooting slump after a terrific 2011-12 campaign.

A.J. Walton is a Starter, But Nobody Knows It (photo credit to Big12Sports.com)

There was one more guy they gushed about. That’s A.J. Walton, the senior guard and winningest player in Baylor basketball history. It’s about time you gush about him, too. He didn’t lead the team in scoring like Jackson, and he didn’t finish with a double-double or block any shots, but he made what Fraschilla called the “play of the game” when he saved a ball near the baseline and fired it to Jefferson for a dunk, helping extend his team’s lead to eight points after the Cowboys had staged a modest comeback. It was one of four assists on the day for Walton, who also tallied two steals, five rebounds and made a number of other hustle plays, none of which went unnoticed by the commentators. By the end of the game, it would be fair to say Musburger had more of a crush on A.J. Walton than he did on that other A.J.’s girlfriend, if you catch our drift.

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The NCAA released its RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) on Tuesday. The RPI isn’t the only factor used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, and it certainly isn’t the best metric, but it is a consideration nonetheless. Simply put, the RPI is derived from three things: a team’s winning percentage, its opponents’ winning percentage, and its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. They also began factoring in home, away, and neutral site games in 2004, so road wins are better than home wins and home losses are worse than road losses. It has its limitations — if it determined a national champion like in college football, we would all be in trouble. But it’s not a terrible way to assist in determining the NCAA Tournament field and where teams should be seeded. Like any numbers-based ranking system, it doesn’t always jive with a human poll, and that’s OK. There should always be a human element with a mixture of strictly numbers, as both sides can veer too far in one direction at times. (Example: The RPI has Colorado ranked sixth, too high, and San Diego State 40th, too low).

The Good

• Kansas is #2 after surviving a (much needed) close game against Temple at home on Saturday. The Jayhawks have solid wins against teams like Colorado (#6), Belmont (#21), and the aforementioned Temple (#28). Last month’s road win against Ohio State (#41) made it four wins against top 50 teams in the non-conference season. Bill Self has mastered the art of scheduling non-conference games at KU. You don’t think he knows winnable home games against teams like Belmont and Temple will help his RPI come Selection Sunday? The good coaches know which teams to schedule and where to schedule them, and Bill Self is no different in that regard.
• Oklahoma at #19 surprised me as well. The Sooners have wins over Texas A&M (#65), UTEP (#85), two wins over West Virginia (#105), and Oral Roberts (#115). On paper, their loss to Stephen F. Austin looks bad, but the Lumberjacks are #53 in RPI. Their other two losses came to top 100 teams as well, at Arkansas (#94) and Gonzaga (#5) on a neutral floor. With Oklahoma already so high, it bodes well for the Big 12 getting five teams into the NCAA Tournament.

Oklahoma at #19? Just One Of The Eccentricities Of The RPI

The Bad

• Baylor‘s two-point loss to Colorado on Nov. 16 doesn’t look so bad now that the Buffaloes are #6th, and a win in Rupp Arena over Kentucky is never a bad thing. But the Bears are #35 in RPI right now. That’s what losses to Charleston and Northwestern will do to your resume. I almost put this in the “Good” category because head coach Scott Drew has done a masterful job of sinking his team’s expectations once again this season. But with one of the best point guards in the nation in Pierre Jackson and plenty of talent elsewhere, there is no reason the Bears should be as low as #35 right now. Read the rest of this entry »

1. It’s not too often you see Baylor on the bad side of recruiting news, but Scott Drew’s 2014 class took a hit when Leron Black announced his de-commitment from the Bears this week. Black, a 6’7” forward from Memphis, originally made a pledge to Drew in September, but he said he rushed the decision, so now he’s re-opened his options to just about every other major program in college basketball. Interestingly, Black was Drew’s only 2014 commitment, but there’s no reason to think he’ll shun Baylor entirely at this point. It’s just that the Bears have some competition now.
2. Jason King always knows the ins and outs of the Big 12, so here’s a nice read on the state of the league heading into conference play this weekend. No surprises with Kansas atop the conference, but King makes a notable argument hidden in the middle of his article. He said he “wouldn’t be surprised if [Iowa State] finished as high as second in the Big 12 standings.” Makes you wonder, doesn’t it? Lost among Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Baylor, it’s easy to forget that Fred Hoiberg’s three losses all came away from home to good competition, including UNLV and Cincinnati. The Cyclones slammed BYU, too, and they’re getting much better play from point guard Korie Lucious after a difficult start to his Iowa State career. We need to see more from ISU before picking it above any of the aforementioned contenders, but it’s clearly a step above the bottom-dwellers and has serious potential.
3. Iowa State’s non-conference season may not have gotten much attention, but that’s because nothing significant really happened. It wasn’t terrible, and it wasn’t great, either, so nobody said a word. That’s not the case for West Virginia, which actually has the worst record in the league at this point and had to suffer through a nationally-televised debacle at Gonzaga to start its season. According to at least one website, however, maybe the Mountaineers are OK after all. That article points out that West Virginia’s RPI ranks seventh in the Big 12 and its strength of schedule is fourth. Of course, nobody’s going to hang a banner for ranking seventh out of 10 teams in a league, and Bob Huggins’ team has no wins of note unless you think beating Virginia Tech by a point on a game-winner by Juwan Staten is notable. The Hokies subsequently lost by 36 to Colorado State and 26 to BYU, so that should tell you something. Yes, the Mountaineers are indeed in bad shape, and they’ll need a terrific Big 12 season to make up for it. Not just good — that won’t cut it. They need to be world-beaters.
4. Did Myck Kabongo get a fair shake in the court of public opinion? After reading this well-done piece, we’re not so sure. For weeks, every media outlet has painted Kabongo as some sort of liar to the NCAA, and that’s why he originally received a season-long ban from the governing body. After more facts emerged and the NCAA amended his suspension to 23 games, it’s apparent now that Kabongo lied, but not to the NCAA. He lied to Texas officials. Is that as bad as lying to the authority? We’ll let you decide that. Either way, the fact that most jumped to the conclusion that Kabongo lied to investigators shows that not everybody knew the real story at the start of this whole ordeal.
5. Bill Self is a basketball coach. Nothing’s ever good enough for basketball coaches. So while we gush about Kansas’ defense, Self isn’t impressed. Here’s the full quote for your enjoyment:  “I’ve watched us play (on film). People are saying too much about our defense. It’s not that good. It’s not… Of all the possessions we have defensively in a game, I guarantee you, 50 percent are bad possessions compared to 50 percent good possessions. The result may end up good because they may miss a shot or they may fumble the ball or make a bad pass or something that doesn’t have much to do with us. I think the biggest area of improvement for us would have to be the defensive end.” And there you have it. Pretty harsh words for the team allowing the fifth-lowest field goal percentage in all of college basketball.

Seth Davis is at it again. In the 2013 edition of his “Hoop Thoughts Stock Report” — which seems eerily similar to how Pardon the Interruption plays Buy or Sell — Davis included six teams from the Big 12 among his long list of schools across the country. There’s a reason Davis writes for Sports Illustrated and we, well, don’t write for SI, but regardless, no writer is off limits in the world of college basketball. Here’s are some excerpts of what Davis said about those Big 12 teams, and more importantly, here’s what we think about what Davis said about the Big 12 teams.

Pierre Jackson (#55) and Isaiah Austin (#21) Will Make or Break the Bears’ Season. (Associated Press/Rod Aydelotte)

BAYLOR (8-4): HOLD: This team is too soft defensively to buy, but it has too many good pieces to sell.

Hold? Agreed, to an extent. Baylor has looked marvelous at times and horrendous at others, so simply in terms of stock, let’s go ahead and even things out and call it a hold. You don’t want to buy a team that has already lost four games and was out-rebounded by College of Charleston and Northwestern, but you also don’t want to sell a team that made BYU look silly and won at Kentucky. There’s a chance this team could still wind up as good if not better than last year’s team, simply because Isaiah Austin is an animal, Pierre Jackson looks like the Big 12 Player of the Year contender we all thought he’d be and, as Davis mentions, there’s no chance Brady Heslip keeps misfiring from beyond the arc at this rate. Here’s where Davis is wrong, though: Baylor is not “too soft defensively.” The word “soft” is much too harsh. The Bears’ zone embarrassed and confused Kentucky at Rupp Arena, and they held BYU in check with a sub-40 percent percentage from the floor. Gonzaga lit them up, sure, but the word is “inconsistent.” Not necessarily “soft.”

KANSAS (11-1, No. 6): BUY It is rare to see a team have so many talented pieces that fit together so well. […] We know the Jayhawks are going to win the Big 12 yet again, so they’re almost certain to go into the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed. I’d be surprised if their season does not end in the 404.

Easy pick here. Seth Davis, you’ve got no argument from us. In fact, you’ve likely got no argument from anybody on earth, save a few delusional Missouri fans. Bill Self has proven once again that he has no problem recovering after defections to the NBA and graduation. That’s because his bench can usually outplay the rest of the Big 12 in any given year. So now that it’s Jeff Withey‘s turn to be the star, he’s doing it. Now that it’s Ben McLemore‘s time to shine, he’s doing it, too. The question is not whether Kansas will win the Big 12. The question is whether the Jayhawks are good enough to win it all. Davis hits the nail on the head here, but you knew that already.

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