Seth Davis Plays “Stock Report”: Big 12 Reaction
Posted by dnspewak on January 3rd, 2013Seth Davis is at it again. In the 2013 edition of his “Hoop Thoughts Stock Report” — which seems eerily similar to how Pardon the Interruption plays Buy or Sell — Davis included six teams from the Big 12 among his long list of schools across the country. There’s a reason Davis writes for Sports Illustrated and we, well, don’t write for SI, but regardless, no writer is off limits in the world of college basketball. Here’s are some excerpts of what Davis said about those Big 12 teams, and more importantly, here’s what we think about what Davis said about the Big 12 teams.
Pierre Jackson (#55) and Isaiah Austin (#21) Will Make or Break the Bears’ Season. (Associated Press/Rod Aydelotte)
BAYLOR (8-4): HOLD: This team is too soft defensively to buy, but it has too many good pieces to sell.
Hold? Agreed, to an extent. Baylor has looked marvelous at times and horrendous at others, so simply in terms of stock, let’s go ahead and even things out and call it a hold. You don’t want to buy a team that has already lost four games and was out-rebounded by College of Charleston and Northwestern, but you also don’t want to sell a team that made BYU look silly and won at Kentucky. There’s a chance this team could still wind up as good if not better than last year’s team, simply because Isaiah Austin is an animal, Pierre Jackson looks like the Big 12 Player of the Year contender we all thought he’d be and, as Davis mentions, there’s no chance Brady Heslip keeps misfiring from beyond the arc at this rate. Here’s where Davis is wrong, though: Baylor is not “too soft defensively.” The word “soft” is much too harsh. The Bears’ zone embarrassed and confused Kentucky at Rupp Arena, and they held BYU in check with a sub-40 percent percentage from the floor. Gonzaga lit them up, sure, but the word is “inconsistent.” Not necessarily “soft.”
KANSAS (11-1, No. 6): BUY It is rare to see a team have so many talented pieces that fit together so well. […] We know the Jayhawks are going to win the Big 12 yet again, so they’re almost certain to go into the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed. I’d be surprised if their season does not end in the 404.
Easy pick here. Seth Davis, you’ve got no argument from us. In fact, you’ve likely got no argument from anybody on earth, save a few delusional Missouri fans. Bill Self has proven once again that he has no problem recovering after defections to the NBA and graduation. That’s because his bench can usually outplay the rest of the Big 12 in any given year. So now that it’s Jeff Withey‘s turn to be the star, he’s doing it. Now that it’s Ben McLemore‘s time to shine, he’s doing it, too. The question is not whether Kansas will win the Big 12. The question is whether the Jayhawks are good enough to win it all. Davis hits the nail on the head here, but you knew that already.
KANSAS STATE (11-2, No. 25): HOLD: There’s not a whole lot to get excited about here, but I do think Kansas State is a solid team that won’t fall far.
Buy the Wildcats. Don’t hold them. Contrary to that sentence, there actually is a lot to get excited about here. Much has been made of Bruce Weber‘s switch to his patented motion offense and how his new team has dealt with the change in style, but the Wildcats were never going to win by lighting up the scoreboard. As Frank Martin instilled in them, they’re going to win by defending you ’till death do them part. Ask Florida about that. Davis acknowledges this, but he doesn’t give KSU’s defensive ability enough credit. It’d also be silly not to think Rodney McGruder won’t play better. His shooting percentages are down across the board this year, which is contributing to Kansas State’s offensive issues. But the Wildcats have good guards around him — a lot of them, in fact. They’re steady, they don’t turn the ball over and they can guard. Will Spradling was instrumental in that victory over the Gators, and a guy like Martavious Irving can come off the bench and give solid minutes to spell the talented Angel Rodriguez. Kansas State has lost to Michigan on a neutral floor and to Gonzaga in Seattle. What’s the big deal? Buy here.
OKLAHOMA STATE (10-2, No. 22): SELL: There’s a lot to like about this Cowboys team, starting with its defense and its tough, savvy freshman point guard Marcus Smart. […] Might as well dump ’em now and shop for a better value.
Marcus Smart is the Real Deal: BUY.
Too harsh to sell the Cowboys. They may not have knocked off Gonzaga in Stillwater, but the next time they have a big-time opponent on the ropes like that at home, you’d better believe Oklahoma State will create a different result. True, freshman point guards don’t often thrive in league play. It took Myck Kabongo a while to get acclimated last year, and even he had his growing pains all the way through the end of the season. However, as we’ve learned so far this season, Marcus Smart is no ordinary freshman. We had questions as to whether he could even run the point at the start of the season, and he made all of us look like idiots. Everybody was right about Smart — he’s a once-in-a-lifetime leader. If Le’Bryan Nash ever starts to lose focus, it’ll be Smart who can pick him up. He’s the catalyst for this fun, high-flying team, and he’s the reason you need to buy Oklahoma State.
TEXAS (8-5): BUY: This is an easy call. In the first place, this is a very cheap stock. The Longhorns have been borderline unwatchable at times in the early going, and many people have left them for dead. […] His teams usually get better as the season wears on, and barring any more unforeseen personnel issues, I expect this one to do the same.
Sell them all the way. It’s easy to pile on Rick Barnes on call him an underachiever (or even more nasty names, as Big 12 fans often resort to), but this isn’t an issue of him losing his program. You don’t need to fire Barnes, but he’s going to have a difficult time with this team in 2012-13. Just because he’s made the NCAA Tournament 14 times in a row doesn’t mean he’ll make it this year. He still has to find a way to play without Kabongo for a long time, and J’Covan Brown is not walking through that door again. That’s the real issue here. This team relied on Brown exclusively a year ago, and now these freshmen and sophomores can’t find a way to score. Luckily, Barnes has more size than a year ago, and a healthy Jaylen Bond will help. The question is simple, though: Can Texas score? Even when Kabongo returns and brings his creative play-making ability back with him, he needs somebody to put the ball in the bucket. Leading scorer Sheldon McClellan is shooting 36 percent from the floor right now. That’s a problem.
Texas Tech (7-4) (Stock to Dump section): Somehow the Red Raiders have managed to play every single game at home, with a schedule ranked 341st in the RPI. Time for reality.
Hard to find an argument against this one. Texas Tech lost at home to McNeese State. Five of its seven wins came against SWAC and MEAC schools, and the other two came against Division I newcomers (Nebraska-Omaha and Northern Kentucky). The two schools from Arizona beat the Red Raiders by a combined 43 points. In Lubbock, no less. It’ll be a long year for Chris Walker.
