What started with 68 is now down to just 16.

While the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament brought the usual surprises, the Sweet Sixteen is not without familiar faces. Three #1 seeds and a pair of #2 seeds are joined by the powerful programs of Florida State and Villanova, a quartet of Pac-12 teams, a pair of mid-majors, and of course, Syracuse. Here are eight questions that could define each match-up:

Saturday’s Games

• #8 Loyola (Chicago) vs. #12 Oregon State (2:40 PM EST, CBS), If Oregon State can limit its turnovers, do the Beavers have enough firepower to pull off an upset? After a stifling defensive performance against Illinois, Loyola (Chicago) has retaken the top spot on KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings this season. The Ramblers forced 17 turnovers against the Illini, an area of which Oregon State struggled against Oklahoma State, committing 20 turnovers. If the Beavers protect the ball, the three-point line becomes key where Oregon State has shot a robust 42 percent over its last five games.
• #1 Baylor vs. #5 Villanova (5:15 PM EST, CBS): Will Villanova’s offense keep clicking or will the absence of Collin Gillespie be magnified against Baylor? In Villanova’s first two full games without Gillespie, the Wildcats shot just 38.3 percent from the field and 27.1 percent from beyond the arc. In the tournament, Jay Wright’s squad has found new life, however, shooting 50 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from deep. Among the players stepping up is former five-star recruit Bryan Antoine, who has scored more points in the NCAA Tournament than he had in the entire regular season.
• #3 Arkansas vs. #15 Oral Roberts (7:25 PM EST, TBS) How much will the late December matchup between these teams factor into the March rematch? Oral Roberts led Arkansas by 12 points early in the second-half when these teams met in Fayetteville earlier this season before Arkansas took control and won by 11 points. The Razorbacks had a 32-point advantage on points in the paint and a 16-point advantage on second-chance points. While Oral Roberts did get its normal production from Kevin Obanor, Max Abmas struggled, scoring just 11 points on 4-of-11 shooting.
• #2 Houston vs. #11 Syracuse (9:55 PM EST, TBS) Which team is better equipped to score against their opponent’s defense? Houston is one of the nation’s best defenses in efficiency totals and across all defensive shooting percentages. For Syracuse, the 2-3 Boeheim zone continues to work magic in another NCAA Tournament. For Houston, it’s an offense that at times can struggle to make baskets, but feasts on the offensive glass, an area that helped the Cougars survive Rutgers and could remain prevalent against Syracuse. For the Orange, it begins with Buddy Boeheim, who is averaging 26 points a game over six March contests.

Sunday’s Games

• #1 Gonzaga vs. #5 Creighton (2:10 PM EST, CBS) Can Creighton replicate a BYU type of gameplan to keep this close longer than expected? In Gonzaga’s WCC Tournament finale, BYU shot 11-of-28 from deep and turned the ball over just eight times. Creighton ranks 20th in the nation in three-point makes per game (9.6) and on the season have forced 43 more turnovers than they have committed. They must get more from the trio of Damien Jefferson, Denzel Mahoney and Mitch Ballock, who are a combined 14-of-63 (22.2%) from beyond the arc over the Bluejays’ last four games.
• #1 Michigan vs. #4 Florida State (5 PM EST, CBS) Will Florida State’s size across the court be too disruptive for Michigan? The height and length of Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson and Franz Wagner is often too much for its opponents to handle. But for Florida State, size itself should not be a concern. The Seminoles will throw length and depth at the Wolverines for 40 minutes with nine players averaging at least 10 minutes per game and five of those listed at 6’8″ or taller.
• #2 Alabama vs. #11 UCLA (7:15 PM EST, TBS) Which team is able to control tempo and how much will that disrupt the opponent? In terms of style of play, Alabama and UCLA are polar opposites. While Alabama is looking to push and maximize the number of possessions in a game, UCLA much prefers to slow things down, run its offense and take advantage of any mismatch. If UCLA can protect the ball and get good looks offensively, its defense will be put in a position to at least have a chance to stay in the game with a red-hot Crimson Tide team.
• #6 USC vs. # 7 Oregon (9:45 PM EST, TBS) Will USC replicate its performance against Oregon or will the Ducks continue to fly high off of its performance against Iowa? In 14 games against teams other than USC since the beginning of February, Oregon’s Eugene Omoruyi is averaging 17.3 points per game. In Oregon’s loss against USC, Omoruyi scored just nine points on 3-of-10 shooting. USC’s length allowed the Trojans to grab 15 offensive rebounds in that game to go along with 10 made threes on 21 attempts which resulted in a 14-point USC win. Andy Enfield’s team had success also holding Will Richardson to just five points, a tougher task this time around as Richardson is netting over 15 points a game in March.

We’re in the midst of Championship Fortnight, so let’s gear up for the continuing action by breaking down each of the Other 26’s conference tournaments as they get under way.

Summit League Tournament

Dates: March 7-10

Site: Denny Sanford PREMIER Center (Sioux Falls, SD)

What to expect: South Dakota State or North Dakota State has won this tournament for three years running, a streak likely to continue in Sioux Falls after each team went 12-4 and split the regular season crown. Then again, both teams also just lost their respective Summit League finales by 16 points apiece – troubling outcomes heading into this weekend. In addition to the Jackrabbits and Bison, both IPFW and Oral Roberts are talented enough to go the distance, while Denver and South Dakota – teams which combined for three wins against the league co-champs – could play spoiler. The preseason favorite Mastodons look especially dangerous after winning eight of their final 10 games following a 1-5 start.

Favorite: South Dakota State. KenPom ranks South Dakota State 60 spots higher than any other team in the conference, thanks largely to its eight Summit victories by 15 or more points. The Jackrabbits are the most well-balanced team in the league, boast its top big man – talented and well-traveled forward Cody Larson – and reside just one hour north of Sioux Falls. There should be a lot of blue and yellow in the stands.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Now that the first weekend of the college basketball season has come and gone, it’s time to really start tracking the AAC and it is only fitting to start with defending champion UConn. The Huskies set off early alarm bells with a sluggish first half on Friday night against Bryant, but I would prefer to talk about how Terrence Samuel is rapidly becoming one of the program’s all-time glue guys. Practically forgotten amid the hype of the newcomers in the backcourt, Samuel was expected to play a bit role again this season. Instead, he contributed 34 minutes in the season opener and played a big role defensively in putting the clamps on Bryant. This is what makes Samuel so fun to root for. In a backcourt full of potential NBA talents and hyped recruits, Samuel is proving indispensable with his bulldog mentality. We will definitely keep an eye on him going forward.
2. On the surface, Tulsa‘s loss to Oral Roberts over the weekend was understandable. The Golden Eagles are a perennial NCAA Tournament contender and one of the better-coached mid-majors in the country under Scott Sutton. What’s troubling is how quickly Sutton admitted that Tulsa is just not a good shooting team. He basically said that his team knew that Tulsa couldn’t shoot, so they let them shoot; and the Golden Hurricane made Sutton look good by making just 2-of-19 from downtown. If Sutton’s comments were based on a season’s worth of observation, that would be one thing, but it’s only been one game and Sutton sounded like a man who has already figured out Tulsa. If Oral Roberts already recognized this and capitalized, just think about what better teams will do. Head coach Frank Haith has to get some of these issues fixed quickly, and he knows it.
3. At this point it’s old news, but one bit of important information we haven’t touched on yet is the academic ineligibility of SMU star forward Markus Kennedy. The information leaked months ago and everyone just kind of assumed the Mustangs and Kennedy would get it all sorted out in the interim. They didn’t, and now the team is headed to play a deep Gonzaga team in Spokane tonight without their best big man and perhaps best overall player. No team in the conference has more depth in the frontcourt than SMU, so having players like Ben Moore and veterans like Cannen Cunningham available will help soften the blow. But Kennedy was a potential double-double machine and we will get an early chance to see how much his absence affects the Mustangs against good competition this evening.
4. It’s probably in his best interest to remain publicly confident in his team’s ability to score, but at some point, even Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin has to stop buying it. The Bearcats scored 52 points against an overmatched opponent, turned the ball over 17 times, and made almost none of their three-pointers over the weekend; but to hear Cronin talk about the team’s offensive potential, you would think he was talking about the Dallas Mavericks. I am not saying that Cincinnati won’t be a good team and I am not even saying that the offense will be that putrid all season long, but I am saying that when someone tells you that Cincinnati has revamped their offense, take a hard look at the facts before you take their word for it.
5. Memphis is the last team in the AAC to start the season and the Tigers have quite the challenge ahead of them, both in the short-term as they prepare for the season opener in South Dakota against Wichita State, and in the long-term as they begin to compete without four of the more prolific guards in program history. That quartet of senior guards —  Joe Jackson, Chris Crawford, Geron Johnson and Michael Dixon — were good, but they hurt the Tigers quite a bit at times last season, and the team may be better off running its offense through the post. On the other hand, the Tigers have just one guard with any college experience this season and will need to count on a group of underclassmen with talent but absolutely zero track record. It is going to be a pivotal season for head coach Josh Pastner, which should at least make things interesting.

Over the next few weeks, we’ll examine and critique some of the more intriguing preseason conference polls. Here, we take a look at the good, the bad and the weird coming out of the Colonial, Conference USA and Summit League polls.

Colonial

There are plenty of question marks in the CAA this season. (Christopher Szagola/US Presswire)

The voters got it right at the top, tabbing Northeastern as the favorite in the CAA, followed by William & Mary and Hofstra. The Huskies are the one unit in this league to add more proven talent than they lost, not only bringing back the vast majority of last year’s roster – including Defensive Player of the Year and rebounding monster Scott Eatherton (15.9 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.8 BPG) – but also regaining Quincy Ford, who was one among the CAA’s best all-around players before missing most of last year. Still, the recent departure of fourth-leading scorer Demetrius Pollard, combined with the fact that Bill Coen’s club went just 11-21 last season, makes you wonder if Northeastern can actually live up to its top billing. William & Mary also has an argument for the number one spot after finishing third in the standings a year ago and narrowly losing the CAA title game, welcoming back the conference’s best player (Marcus Thornton) and CAA Rookie of the Year (Omar Prewitt). Hofstra is rightfully slotted at third; despite last year’s 10-23 campaign, an influx of talented transfers and recruits, including former Niagara guard Juan’ya Green (16.5 PPG), justifies the anticipated climb.

1. Northeastern
2. William & Mary
3. Hofstra
4. Drexel
5. James Madison
6. College of Charleston
7. Towson
8. Delaware
9. UNCW
10. Elon

Read the rest of this entry »

Man, what a crazy season it’s been for the Southland Conference. It’s only January, but the league has already found itself in the news a couple of times, and that’s without any shocking upsets. It started in early December when Oral Roberts announced it would return to its original stomping grounds — the Summit League — for the 2014-15 season. Then it was announced on Wednesday that Stephen F. Austin and Oral Roberts would be forfeiting games based on a misunderstanding of NCAA scheduling rules.

Stephen F. Austin (SFA, pictured) and Oral Roberts will be forfeiting Southland Conference games. (Photo courtesy of zimbio.com)

That about explains it all right there. Basically NCAA Division I programs aren’t allowed to play more than four games against non-Division I programs in any given year, regardless of whether they’re exhibition or regular season contests. To date, Stephen F. Austin has played two regular season games and one exhibition contest against non-D-I opponents, while Oral Roberts has faced a four non-D-I teams in the exhibition and regular seasons. That’s not more than four, you might say, so what’s the beef? Alas, a pair of Southland Conference teams will count against that tally. With Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word transitioning from Division II to Division I this season, those two programs still technically count as non-Division I programs. After playing Abilene Christian on January 30 (its fourth) Stephen F. Austin will forfeit a home game to Incarnate Word on February 1 (its fifth), while Oral Roberts will forfeit a January 16 game at Abilene Christian (its fifth) and a January 18 contest at Incarnate Word (its sixth).

Read the rest of this entry »

1. Creighton got some great news on the injury front yesterday when it got back MRIs on Doug McDermott‘s shoulder and Grant Gibbs‘ knee. McDermott is listed as day-to-day with a shoulder sprain and is expected to play on Sunday. Gibbs’ status is a little less clear after he dislocated his kneecap and is expected to miss the next month. While both injuries obviously are tough blows to the Bluejays this is probably the best that their fans could have hoped for after both players were injured in a win on Tuesday night against DePaul when it seemed like both players might miss an extended period of time.
2. Vanderbilt was not as fortunate albeit for completely different reasons as they will be without Eric McClellan, their leading scorer, for the rest of the season as he will not be in school for the spring semester after violating one of the school’s academic policies. According to the school he is expected to be reinstated this summer so we would expect to see him back in a Commodore uniform next season. McClellan, a sophomore transfer from Tulsa, was averaging 14.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game this season. His departure is a crushing blow for a team that was going to have a tough time staying in the top half of the SEC with a full roster and now is down to just seven scholarship players.
3. We have talked a lot about conference realignment in this space over the past few years, but we cannot think of a time where it has had such a direct influence on wins and losses as it will with the Southland Conference this year. Yesterday the conference announced that it would be making Stephen F. Austin (the best team in the conference) forfeit one game and Oral Roberts forfeit two games because they are scheduled to play more than four non-Division I opponents this season (the NCAA maximum). The worst part about it? They have to forfeit conference games because two of the schools in their conference–Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word–are transitional Division I programs meaning that even though they play in a conference full of Division I teams they still get counted as a Division II team (their previous Division) until next year.
4. When Florida dismissed Damontre Harris from their team we assumed it would be the last time we would see the Virginia Tech transfer in Gainesville. It turns out that we were wrong, which happens more often than we would like to admit, as Billy Donovan said yesterday that Harris was re-enrolling at Florida and could work his way back onto the team next season. Given the continuous state of flux that most basketball rosters seem to be in taking another chance on Harris, who averaged 6.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game as a sophomore at South Carolina in the 2011-12 season, certainly seems like a reasonable risk since it appears that he did not have any legal issues.
5. Three years ago we created a Big Four State Tournament where we created fictional all-star teams from the best college basketball states in the country. Ryan Fagan of Sporting News took a similar approach with states this year, but took a much broader look at each state by considering the individual teams rather than the most prominent players. The results probably won’t be too surprising to those who have actually followed the season, but it should create some debate particularly since some of the traditional powerhouse states are ranked lower than where they might normally be in this type of ranking.

Oral Roberts is headed back to its old stomping grounds. The school announced on Thursday that it would be returning to the Summit League effective July 1, 2014. The Golden Eagles are in just their second year as a member of the Southland Conference. Oral Roberts was a member of the Summit League from 1997-2012, capturing six regular season titles and three consecutive tournament titles from 2006-08. Fifteen of the university’s 16 athletic programs made the switch to the Southland Conference before the 2012-13 season in an effort to save on travel costs (ORU is located in Tulsa, Oklahoma). The men’s soccer program remained in the Summit League. However, with the Southland expanding to 14 members, including several football-playing schools (a sport Oral Roberts doesn’t offer), the original objective was no longer plausible. Hence the move back.

Oral Roberts is moving back to the Summit League. (Photo courtesy of utsandiego.com)

Oral Roberts finished third in the Southland Conference behind regular-season champion Stephen F. Austin and eventual NCAA Tournament participant Northwestern State a season ago. The Golden Eagles (the Southland favorites according to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings) are off to a 5-3 start in 2013, although the three losses are to Kansas State, Saint Louis and Wisconsin. Oral Roberts gets a resume-boosting shot at Wichita State tonight.

So what does this move mean for the program? First, it gives the Summit League nine teams, which is perfect for a 16-game round-robin schedule. North Dakota State, South Dakota State and Oakland have represented the conference in the NCAA Tournament during the past five seasons, with Oral Roberts carrying the torch the three seasons prior. The league’s last non-play-in game win in the Big Dance came all the way back in 1998, when Valparaiso defeated Ole Miss and Florida State, but that was back when the league was dubbed the Mid-Continent Conference. Next season’s nine teams would include Oral Roberts, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Denver, IPFW, IUPUI, Nebraska-Omaha, South Dakota and Western Illinois.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. We have not heard of many players deciding to transfer so far this season, but it is getting to the point in the season/academic year where we would expect to start hearing a lot more about that. Alex Murphy is the first player from a major program this season to announce his intention to transfer as he plans to leave Duke at the end of the semester. Murphy, a redshirt sophomore, reclassified from the class of 2012 in his final year of high school and entered college in the class of 2011 so even though he is a redshirt sophomore he is only 20 years old. We would expect that Murphy, who averaged just 2.1 points in 6.3 minutes per game as a freshman, will have plenty of suitors although Florida (where his brother Erik played) or Providence/Rhode Island (his home state) would be the favorites.
2. It seems like this ridiculous conference realignment period will never end. After seeing what seems like nearly every school change conferences we are starting to see some schools go back to their former conference. Yesterday, Oral Roberts that it will be rejoining the Summit League after leaving it for the Southland Conference in 2012. The Oral Roberts administration cited the Southland’s more recent expansion as being opposed to the school’s goals of reducing travel costs and strengthening rivalries. Although we hesitate to praise anybody for changing conferences (admitting that we understand the economic realities of college sports) it is nice to see Oral Roberts do this if their stated reasons were the actual reasons for their move.
3. Apparently George Mason officials take a different view of stepping on an opposing player’s chest than college basketball historians. Yesterday, the school suspended forward Anali Okoloji indefinitely after he was called for stepping on South Florida’s Anthony Collins during their game on Wednesday night. The move should not effect the team too much as he was only averaging 2.4 points and 1.6 rebounds per game this season although their next two games are against Oklahoma and Iowa State so they could probably use all the help that they can get. For his part, it appears that Okoloji is taking the right approach publicly by agreeing with Paul Hewitt’s decision.
4. With all of the focus on Duke’s current freshman star Jabari Parker, many media members have been comparing him to former Duke star Grant Hill. While Hill’s NBA career was derailed by a series of unfortunate injuries it appears that he is doing well based on his interview with Ryan Fagan that touches on a variety of things including his thoughts on his alma mater, some of the current stars, and his philanthropic work. It also appears that Hill has been active working on a financial career as he has an interesting post-basketball career path in front of him.
5. Finally, it is hard to believe that Dick Vitale has been working at ESPN for 34 years as a college basketball analyst. Yesterday was the 34th anniversary of his first ESPN telecast and the people at ESPN dug into their vault to pull out his first telecast. While we understand that he has become a polarizing figure to some because of his loud personality and his perceived favoritism of some teams it is hard to argue with his impact on the game and how he has helped popularize it with a national audience. For those of you who may not be familiar with his older work the video shows a little bit about how he has changed (hair isn’t that different though) although we did find Joe Boyle’s facial expressions when Vitale started to talk amusing.

Eli Linton is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after the Oral Roberts vs. Tulsa game on Sunday.

A bigger upset than you might think happened in a relatively obscure part of the mid-major world on Sunday when  Oral Roberts celebrated a 74-68 non-conference road victory on the floor of their cross-town rival, Tulsa. Oral Roberts was able to overcome an abysmal shooting night (38 percent from the field) and the loss of Shawn Glover, their lone senior (fouled out with four minutes left in the game), and they did it by outrebounding the Golden Hurricane by 17 rebounds despite not having a starter over 6′ 7″. Tulsa also did its part by missing 19 free throws and going a horrific 1-of-9 from three-point territory.

Scott Sutton and his squad earned a quality win to start the season. (AP)

It was a sloppy game by both teams — what you might expect for a season opener — but there were also some important takeaways from this game. Both programs found themselves in a similar place before their 49th meeting: They are coached by men who come from Bill Self’s growing coaching tree, and can’t help but bring great expectations with that experience. Both schools have tasted some historical NCAA Tournament success and are looking to end long droughts, and both programs find themselves under a lot of pressure to produce for fan bases that measure success through conference championships and NCAA berths. The two schools are even more connected by the fact that they are mid-major schools from the same city, usually lost in the preseason discussion of potential “Cinderella” teams that are doing their best to keep that dream alive and stay relevant in the never-ending realignment of the power conferences. Each will need to win its conference championship to have any hope of earning a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Read the rest of this entry »

I. Renko is an RTC columnist. He will kick off each weekend during the season with his analysis of the 26 other non-power conferences. Follow him on Twitter @IRenkoHoops.

It wasn’t that long ago when we were musing in this space about whether an early December ankle injury was hindering Nate Wolters’ performance. After missing two games, Wolters registered three straight games with a sub-100 offensive rating (per Ken Pomeroy), decidedly mediocre performances by Wolters’ high standards. But those would be the only three games this year where Wolters fell below that mark, as he emerged from his funk with a 28-point performance in a big win over New Mexico. Since then, Wolters has been as productive as ever. But none of us could have expected what happened on Thursday night. Wolters exploded for an incredible 53-point performance.

Nate Wolters Owned the Court on Thursday Night (South Dakota State Athletics)

Wolters shot 17-of-28 from the floor, including 9-of-14 from three-point range. He added 10 points from the free throw line. He outscored the entire opposing team, IPFW, in the second half, 38-37. He scored in every which way — step back threes, drives through the lane, catch-and-shoot threes, drives along the baseline, threes off ball screens, pull-up jumpers … you name it, he did it.

Wolters is now averaging 22.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. He commits just 2.3 turnovers a game despite using more than 30 percent of the Jackrabbits’ possessions. He shoots over 80 percent from the free throw line and over 40 percent from the three-point line. And perhaps most important of all, he has led his team on an eight-game winning streak that has buried an uneven start to the conference season and put the Jackrabbits in a first-place tie with Western Illinois. If you’ve yet to catch the Wolters show, fret not as there are some high-profile opportunities in the coming weeks. Next Saturday, the Jackrabbits welcome Western Illinois to Brookings, and you can bet that the joint will be jumping. And a week later, Wolters will take his talents to Murray, Kentucky to square off against Isaiah Canaan and the Racers in a premier Bracketbuster matchup.

On to this week’s Top 10, our Honor Roll, and the games to watch this week …

Read the rest of this entry »