Chris Johnson is an RTC Columnist. He can be reached @ChrisDJohnsonn. 

Tonight’s Lede. Bubble Unpredictability. The NCAA Tournament bubble is a nebulous thing to gauge. Predictions are laid out with RPI figures and relevant strength of schedule numbers over these early months, and all of that gets compiled into individual “resumes” – the digestible team units used by the NCAA selection committee to construct its preferred field of 68. The best way to improve your “resume” goes without saying. Win good games against good teams, and you’re helping your chances of inclusion. Sometimes, all it takes is one or two big wins to launch a team into the bubble conversation, or to provide that definitive RPI boost to send it over the cut line. In the end, all final decisions are reached in a secretive board room, and for as accurate as bracket models have become in recent years – and as ostensibly similar as the esteemed media mock selection event has become — we’re all fooling ourselves if we think we know exactly how the committee evaluates teams. One team won a monstrously important game tonight – the kind of thing that really shakes up that selection process. Care to find out who it was?

Your Watercooler Moment. You Needed That One, UK. 

If Tuesday night is a sign of things to come, Kentucky could be a scary good team come March (Photo credit: AP Photo).

There are Kentucky fans, illogical or not, who will come down hard on 2012 national championship-winning coach John Calipari if he’s unable to lead Kentucky to the NCAA Tournament this season. Wildcats fans are some of the most relentless partisans in college sports. They expect the best, roster turnover and relative recruiting down year be damned. Whether or not UK ultimately gets there, I can’t say for sure. There’s a lot of season left to be played, and UK has plenty of work to do before locking up a bid. Here’s what I know: Kentucky is in much better shape, Tourney-wise, after Tuesday night’s win at Ole Miss. In almost any other year, that sounds more like some deranged Rebels fan’s perverse joke. This season, it’s not even a small stretch. Andy Kennedy’s team has evolved into a real SEC title contender, thanks mostly to the huge impact (physical and emotional) of Marshall Henderson, the SEC’s leading scorer, and a set of quality complementary frontcourt players. But for a few spots – a road loss at Middle Tennessee, a near-loss at Auburn – the Rebels have looked appreciably better than John Calipari’s team all season. With all that considered, there remained some suspicion about whether Ole Miss, long a doormat for the likes of UK and Florida in the SEC, could seize the opportunity against the worst team of Calipari’s UK tenure to cement its mantle as the league’s surefire No. 2 (Florida is absolutely napalming anyone it comes into contact with; the Gators are No. 1, and it’s not close). Henderson gives the Rebels an offensive spark unlike anything Kennedy has ever worked with in Oxford, and Murphy Holloway and Reginald Buckner are as solid as any non-Patric Young SEC bigs. This is Ole Miss basketball’s year to shine, and Tuesday night was its night to drill the young Wildcats. It had all the momentum and clear advantages it needed, but the Rebels couldn’t quite size up Calipari’s team. But let’s not let this be about some newly-discovered flaws in the Ole Miss formula. Kentucky deserves the credit for this win, because this Kentucky team was nothing like the incoherent mess we’ve seen for large stretches this season.

The “switch” everyone’s been waiting Kentucky to “flip” may or may not have, you know, flipped Tuesday night, but when you look at Kentucky’s 87-74 win, there are few times this season when the Wildcats have looked as good, or even half as good, as it did in Oxford. Not only did UK outwork and thoroughly outplay a vastly improved SEC contender, they went into a blaring environment, stuffed with a legion of vitriolic Rebels fans ready to coronate their home team’s triumph over a historic program, and exited with a resounding W. They did it with Kyle Wiltjer scoring and defending like he never has before, with Archie Goodwin snapping his conference play swoon, and a whole bunch of really encouraging developments that, if sustained, will erase any doubts UK fans ever had about the Wildcats’ NCAA Tournament chances.

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Bennet Hayes is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @HoopsTraveler on Twitter. Night Line runs on weeknights during the season, highlighting a major storyline development from that day’s games.

For NC State fans that thought the rollercoaster may have finally been headed for level ground, Tuesday’s nights’ 58-55 loss to Virginia was yet another reminder that the seat belts should never come off when riding with this Wolfpack team. Consistency has eluded Mark Gottfried’s club all season but especially of late, as the Pack have now alternated wins and losses over their past six contests. Included in the trio of wins were seismic victories over Tobacco Road rivals Duke and UNC; but like many a college student after a momentous Saturday night, the Pack watched as each high subsided into a full-blown hangover. Little seems to have been learned by either coach or team along the way, and State fans have to be wondering whether the inconsistency might ultimately derail a season that has quite frequently felt immensely promising.

Much Like His Team All Season, CJ Leslie’s Performance Tuesday Night Included Both Good And Bad: 20 Points and 14 Rebounds For The Pack Star, But Also Seven Turnovers

Nobody can deny that the talent and capability to be not just good but great are there for this team. We knew about the collection of talent all the way back in the preseason, when the paper version of the Wolfpack was impressive enough to net the team a top-five preseason national ranking and the grandiose title of ACC favorite. Unfortunately, we have seen that talent mesh and deliver on all its potential far too infrequently for the Pack to maintain those lofty preseason standards, but is there time yet to bounce back? Are we silly for believing that it isn’t too late, for thinking that Mark Gottfried can find a way to get his team to sustain that energy and emotion ALL the time, and not just when they take the floor with college hoops titans like Duke, UNC, and Michigan?

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1. Austin American Statesman: The newest news in conference realignment is tentatively good. Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby mentioned that his league is looking into an “alliance” with the ACC and two other conferences “for the purposes of scheduling, marketing and possibly even television partnerships.” If the last point comes to fruition, conference expansion may as a result slow down significantly. Essentially the Big 12 and ACC could act like a super-conference to keep from devouring each other. Obviously, this is a long way off, but it’s nice to get some news for once that isn’t pointing towards more expansion.
2. State of the U: Miami got some much deserved love, moving up to #14 in the latest AP poll. But the Hurricanes still have a weird profile. Their early losses (marred by injuries and suspension) get plenty of press, but this team still also beat Boston College by one point (on the road). Every team is entitled to an off night (especially in the game before playing Duke and Florida State), but it’s not invincible either. Miami has experience and talent on its side. It has a great, proven coach. But it’s not as good as its last two wins, nor as bad as its first two losses. As an interesting aside, Miami is looking very similar to Florida State last year.
3. Washington Post: After its 20-point loss to Duke, Charles Mitchell and Mark Turgeon disagreed on the Terrapins’ primary issue. Mitchell said the problem was offense; Turgeon said it was defense. I’m going to go ahead and agree with Turgeon, at least with respect to the first half. That was by far the best offensive showing I’d seen from Maryland (against a decent opponent) since the Kentucky game. Sure, the Terrapins didn’t get into their offensive sets a lot, but they cleaned up on second-chance points and hit threes. Also noted: Mitchell and Shaquille Cleare are going to be special players later in their careers.
4. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Andy Glockner estimated that Virginia cost itself around 30 spots in the RPI just in its loss to Old Dominion. That will become less and less important as conference play continues, but the Cavaliers still have two problems: (1) with a non-conference schedule that bad, they really need to shine in conference play and they’ve already lost to Wake Forest; (2) they only play Duke, Miami and NC State a total of three times. The mixed news is that the RPI doesn’t care who you beat (directly), only total winning percentages, meaning that the Cavaliers will help their RPI a lot just by playing those three schools (winning would help more). The good news is that it means there are a lot of winnable road games on Tony Bennett’s conference schedule. Road wins will be how Virginia climbs back up to an overall RPI ranking where it’s reasonable to talk about them again (see, Miami).
5. NC State Technician: Seeing this blog’s name, it’s only fair to comment on court-rushing articles. Jeniece Jamison falls into the category of conservative court-rusher. She critiques two recent college stormings: La Salle after beating Butler, and Maryland after beating NC State. The first I would have whole-heartedly supported: How many times is La Salle going to play and beat a top-10 opponent at home? Not very often. That’s a major accomplishment for most schools. As for the latter, I’ll head back her way. Maryland — unlike LaSalle — is a program with a recent national title. There’s a good argument that Terrapin fans should stay in their seats, as NC State isn’t a close rival or even one of the top few teams in the country. But, the Terrapins needed a win and got it in dramatic last-second fashion, so it’s tough to be too critical.

1. Miami Herald: Leonard Hamilton was really impressed by Miami after he saw them beat Duke by 27. My guess is that impression only got stronger after the Hurricanes dismantled his team Sunday evening. The blowout appears to have sparked some interest in Miami basketball, but it’s hard to determine whether this run is just a flash in the pan. Kenny Kadji said after the win, “I still don’t think that many people respect us. I keep reading more about how bad Duke played than how good we played.” I want to put in my two cents right now: The Hurricanes played so well they broke Duke. It wasn’t that Duke didn’t play well, it’s that they stopped fighting. Every time it looked like the Blue Devils might make a moral victory run, Miami would hit a big basket. It was the most impressive game I’ve seen this season, with or without Ryan Kelly. Also, it’s time to stop wondering if Miami can win the regular season conference title. Right now it’s theirs to lose (with a two-game lead in the loss column).
2. Tallahassee Democrat: The story of Stan Jones — Leonard Hamilton’s right hand man — is a warning (and testament in a way) to how hard it is to get noticed and work your way up the ladder in the coaching business. Jones was a very successful high school coach in Tennessee, winning a state title at a private school during his third year — but it took a long 14 years before he got the call from Hamilton to join him at Miami in the 1990s. He’s essentially been with him ever since. The two appear inseparable, though my guess is Jones is getting a lot more phone calls nowadays. Don’t be surprised if a major conference (or high level mid-major) school offers him a shot to be their head coach soon. Also I wouldn’t be surprised if he ultimately succeeds Hamilton (who is the second oldest coach in the ACC) at Florida State.
3. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: I had my doubts (and based on the Yellow Jackets’ conference record, it’s tough to argue if some people still have their doubts) about Georgia Tech‘s progress coming into the season, but Brian Gregory’s team is really competing. They also appear to have some really good pieces going forward (Chris Bolden, Robert Carter Jr., and Daniel Miller). This doesn’t mean the rebuilding act will finish next season, but things are moving along.
4. Raleigh News & Observer: North Carolina‘s game against NC State was a tale of two halves. The first half showcased a veteran Wolfpack team totally dominant against a young and lost North Carolina team. But in the final 13 minutes, the Tar Heels scored a ludicrous 50 points. Read that again: In the final 13 minutes of the game, NC State gave up and North Carolina scored 50 points. That’s totally insane. North Carolina showed a lot of heart clawing back to a two-possession game in Raleigh on Saturday. That said, you can’t ignore either team’s first half performance. The Wolfpack shined on both ends of the floor, showing another glimpse into the talent that caused the ACC media to pick them first in the preseason.
5. BC Interruption: If you’ve ever attended a normal Boston College game (not against Duke or North Carolina), you know that there’s a serious lack of interest in basketball. This was somewhat true even before the Eagles tanked, though getting bad assuredly killed off attendance pretty quickly. The national championship men’s hockey team draws more winter sports love, but the basketball team should do itself a favor in feeding off that team’s success. BC Interruption suggests moving the students to the sidelines instead of the baselines (like Cameron Indoor Stadium), but I think the Eagles also need someone to sell the program. That isn’t likely to be Steve Donahue — other than he’ll indirectly help things by making the team better — so it may have to be a player or prominent alumnus. Unfortunately it’s a bit of circular logic. You can’t get atmosphere without talent, and it’s probably hard to attract talent without atmosphere.

1. Wilmington Star News: NC State became the second of the Triangle teams to call a players-only meeting lately (and based on Duke’s performance against Miami, its players won’t be far behind). Lorenzo Brown pretty bluntly outlined the reason behind the meeting: “”There’s been a lot of nonsense going on between us, but we’re all grown men […] We sat down and talked it out, so we’re perfectly fine now.” My guess is that some of that nonsense has to do with people failing to play defense. Some more probably comes from TJ Warren retweeting Thomas DeThaey ripping Mark Gottfried. With a more polished North Carolina looming on Saturday, the Wolfpack need to get their minds right, and fast.
2. USA Today: Dickie V. has a well-earned reputation for loving Duke. But I wasn’t shocked at all when Vitale was ripping the Blue Devils’ performance against Miami. First, Duke deserved the tongue-lashing. If there’s one thing Dickie V. (and most other commentators) have to say about Duke under Mike Krzyzewski, it’s that the Blue Devils outwork opponents. That didn’t happen in Coral Gables Wednesday night. Although I’m not sure I should waste too much effort responding to an author who thought it was newsworthy to post North Carolina fans chanting “go to hell Duke” during their win over Georgia Tech. Duke, North Carolina and NC State chant about their rivals in every game — this is nothing new.
3. Washington Post: Right now Maryland is still evolving offensively. It’s a little surprising to see a coach of Mark Turgeon’s stature struggling so much to find the right offensive roles for his players, but he’s trying everything at this point. This idea seems like a good one: Dez Wells will handle the ball more. He’s a very different player (who plays very different defense), but Maryland might be well-served treating Wells a little like Duke treated Austin Rivers last season. The only thing Maryland has to watch out for is focusing on getting Alex Len the ball.
4. AP (via Sports Illustrated): Another wrinkle in the NCAA-Miami saga is starting to unfold. Nevin Shapiro’s lawyer, Maria Elena Perez, is going to tell her side of the story. In a short statement, Perez called herself “a victim of their [the NCAA’s] enforcement staff’s misconduct,” passively adding, “The dubious party is not me. What I have done is 150 percent above the board.” Her statements come after Mark Emmert’s nebulous comments appeared to imply she took money to question people under oath. If you haven’t already, you’ll definitely want to grab some popcorn over the coming weeks as this story develops.
5. Charlotte Observer: Luke DeCock nails the result of an ACC full of parity. Home court advantage is massive this year, as home teams are 22-10 in league play thus far this season. The Florida duo alone have five road wins between them. Duke and North Carolina? There’s only one road win to be found. The only teams to truly trust on the road at this point are Miami and Florida State. Duke may grow into one of those teams once Ryan Kelly is back (and it has played the top two teams in the league), but it’s not there yet. But apart from the top few teams, road wins are going to be a rarity.

Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology was released on January 22. While it might be a bit too early to start evaluating his selections with full confidence, there are definitely some interesting predictions he has made about the current state of things in the ACC. For one thing, he has five teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament from the conference in this mock bracket:  Duke (overall #1 seed), NC State (#3 seed), Miami (#5 seed), North Carolina (#9 seed), and Maryland (#11 seed).

There might only be 3 ACC locks for the NCAA Tournament after the regular season.

• Duke (16-2, 3-2):  If the season ended today, it would be tough to dispute Duke’s credentials as a #1 seed, considering that they are ranked #1 in the overall polls and #1 in the RPI, but without Ryan Kelly (for a still undetermined length of time), the Blue Devils are not the same team that defeated Louisville, Ohio State, and Minnesota. Regardless, barring a major collapse in the ACC (losing more than four games overall), it would be hard to see Duke losing its spot on at least one of the four top lines, though it would obviously prefer not to drop too many more so that it would be placed in the East Region (Washington, DC) instead of being shipped out to Los Angeles.
• NC State (15-4, 4-2):  NC State has probably fallen off the #3-seed line with its shocking loss to Wake Forest earlier this week. While NC State is currently ranked #16 in the RPI, they are likely to drop more in the near future (RPIForecast has the Wolfpack projected to finish #25 in the RPI). NC State’s porous defense and generally mediocre play in the ACC (aside from the Duke game), including a loss to Maryland and barely scraping by non-Tournament contenders Clemson and Boston College, finally came back to bite them in losing to a Wake Forest team that was just 9-8 prior to that game. While NC State is certainly a lock to make the NCAAs at this point, unless they can beat Duke in Cameron and/or beat Miami and have success against UNC, it is highly unlikely they will stay quite so high. If they finish 11-7 in the ACC, as projected by both Pomeroy and Sagarin, a #5 or #6 seed seems more likely, considering that NC State’s best non-conference wins are against UConn and Stanford.

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1. NCAA: It’s safe to say Miami had its best day in a long time yesterday. Not only did the Hurricanes poleaxe Duke in arguably their best performance ever (relatedly, see the agony and the ecstasy), moving them to the top of the ACC leaderboard with two games over the nearest team in the loss column, but the NCAA announced major violations were commited by the NCAA in the investigation into Miami. So Miami moved into odds on favorite to win the regular season title, and potentially thwarted the NCAA thanks to overeager investigators? That’s a hell of a day. More on the NCAA situation later.
2. Winston-Salem Journal: Speaking of schools riding high, it’s safe to say Wake Forest is still reveling in its win over 18th-ranked NC State. This might be the first article I’ve ever read praising Jeff Bzdelik since he arrived in Winston-Salem. Dan Collins describes a Wake Forest team that “was younger and deeper,” but didn’t stop there: “you’d see at team that was tougher and far more together [than NC State].” The Demon Deacons are a foul call away from being 4-2 in conference play, tied with Duke, North Carolina and NC State in the loss column. I’m not going to go as far as to say Bzdelik deserves an extension, but the man does deserve credit for his team’s success in the early goings.
3. Backing the Pack: NC State‘s defense is heavily reliant on not committing (or being called for, depending on who’s talking) fouls. The outliers are UNC-Asheville and Stanford. The first can be filed away under “Puerto Rico hangover”, but the second is less easily explained. Fouls are only a symptom though. Watching the second half at the Joel, showed a lack of effort on defense: NC State tried to play defense with its hands and got whistled for it. Mark Gottfried needs to figure out what ails his team motivation-wise ASAP. The Wolfpack aren’t in any danger–yet–of missing the NCAA tournament, but they do have a big game coming up Saturday against North Carolina.
4. Tallahassee Democrat: Florida State’s coaching staff admitted that they’re just as confused as the rest of us about the Seminoles’ inconsistent play. Just in the game I saw at Clemson they dominated the first half (they looked unbeatable for the first 15 minutes), came out coasting in the second half until Clemson clawed all the way back, and eked out a win with a tough final stretch. That seems to be the modus operandi for the whole season. It’s easy to want to blame the inconsistency on an inconsistent lineup–Hamilton often plays ten-plus players–but this strategy isn’t a new one.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Former Georgia Tech legend Bobby Cremins may be walking into a really interesting situation, as he was appointed to serve on the NCAA’s committee on infractions. Cremins should provide a different and much needed perspective for the committee, but he also should get a chance to witness the coming changes first-hand.

N.C. State is 15-4 overall and 4-2 in the ACC and has as much potential of any team in the conference this season. Led by powerful big men and electric wing players, the Wolfpack got their signature win when they knocked off Duke in the RBC Center a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately, Mark Gottfried‘s crew has also picked up two very telling losses that speak to the existence of home court advantage in the ACC more than the Wolfpack’s inconsistent play.

Wake Forest fans at the Joel celebrate during their upset win over N.C. State on Tuesday. (AP Photo)

NC State currently has a 1-3 record on the road with two of those losses coming in their last three games. Losses at Maryland and Wake Forest look bad by themselves but when looking at them next to their lone road win — a five-point win at Boston College — the trend becomes upsetting. By this time of the season they have shed the “young team” moniker and their big-minute freshmen have actually been the bright spots for this team away from home. In their three ACC away games, the Wolfpack are shooting 43 percent from the field, down from their outstanding 51 percent total for the season. This is where the issue has been as Gottfried’s team is holding opponents relatively in check on defense with a negligible difference between home and away (41 percent on the road, 40 percent overall). Typically, teams that rely on their defense and scoring inside do well on the road (see Florida State last year), while teams that rely on shooting the ball well from the perimeter inevitably falter in hostile situations.

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NC State took a really tough loss at Wake Forest last night. Fans are frustrated, players are frustrated and coaches are frustrated. Former third-string center Thomas DeThaey took to Twitter to vent his frustration: “That’s what happens when you’re a great recruiter but a terrible coach!” Now comes the juicy part. Current freshman TJ Warren retweeted DeThaey. Was it a slip of the thumb? Was he just passively retweeting the comment?

TJ Warren may want this retweet back.

Regardless, this doesn’t look good. Just to add insult to injury, Rick Lewis — NC State frosh Tyler Lewis‘ father — favorited the tweet. My guess is there’s going to be a penalty — whether “internal” (i.e., suicide sprints), or even a one-game suspension. The latter would really hurt the Wolfpack and Mark Gottfried, as their rotation isn’t deep especially if CJ Leslie or Richard Howell get into foul trouble.

What remains to be seen is how the team will react to a bad loss. NC State flirted with disaster against Boston College and Clemson, tasting a little at Maryland and against Oklahoma State. But this is the team’s first bad loss. This is the first time it’s totally collapsed, losing a 16-point lead to a truly inferior opponent. It’s the rare team that can turn a bad loss into a wake-up call (see: Duke’s loss to Georgetown in 2010, or Florida State’s beatdown at Clemson last season) instead of reason to panic. Usually teams that live and learn from bad losses are well-coached and experienced. This NC State team has experience, but it also has a lot of youth.

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It’s understandable if, before today, you hadn’t thought much about Devin Thomas. The 6’9″ freshmen has only averaged 24.9 minutes per game, and his scoring average of 6.5 PPG for a still-struggling Wake Forest squad hadn’t exactly been the stuff of legend.  You’d think that maybe his true offensive brilliance has been masked by a relative dearth of playing time, but Ken Pomeroy had measured his offensive efficiency at the staggeringly bad figure of 84.9. In one sense, that makes last night’s performance seem especially incredible. It also makes it seem like Thomas was due to finally have some luck.

Devin Thomas Announced His Presence to the Nation Last Night

Against North Carolina State, Thomas out-Howelled none other than Richard Howell himself. The Wolfpack center scored 13 points on 6-of-11 shooting and grabbed 16 rebounds (nine offensive rebounds). Yet somehow, the wily freshmen put up 25 points on 10-of-13 shooting and managed “only” 14 rebounds (also with nine offensive boards) and four blocks. On a night when the two other Wake Forest freshman starters struggled, with Codi Miller-McIntyre amassing six turnovers (though admittedly having a strong shooting night) and Arnaud William Adala Moto fouling out in only 17 minutes, Thomas delivered the strongest performance of his blossoming collegiate career.

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