RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish.

Three Key Takeaways.

Michigan Heads to the National Championship Game for the Second Time in John Beilein’s Career (USA Today Images)

1. Loyola’s First Half Was a Microcosm of Its Run. Neither team came out of the gates hot, but Michigan at least was able to get a few things going well enough to jump out to an early 12-4 lead. It was fool’s gold. The Wolverines were being baited into three-pointers from the wrong players (e.g., Zavier Simpson) and they were depending too much on Moe Wagner to bail them out with offensive putbacks (typically not a strength of his). Needless to say, it didn’t last. Loyola started chipping away at the lead and eventually found its groove to make a 25-10 run throughout the rest of the first half, building a seven-point lead that the Ramblers took with them into the break. John Beilein noted after the game that it was the Ramblers’ defense — keyed by ball-screen switching and interesting looks — that really bothered the Wolverines in the first half. Just like the previous four teams that Loyola had vanquished.
2. Michigan Eventually Responded in Kind. When Loyola hit a layup with 12 minutes remaining to go back up by nine points while Michigan continued to look flummoxed on the other end, it seemed as if this actually might happen. Then a pair of threes sandwiching a layup led to an 8-2 run for the Wolverines, but that was only the precursor to the much larger tidal wave 24-10 run that was coming. By the time Loyola recovered from a Michigan barrage fueled by tired legs, turnovers and even more putbacks (led by Wagner), Sister Jean’s Easter goose was cooked. The Wolverines have won several different ways through this tournament — three-point shooting, defense, offensive rebounding, turnovers — but the point is that they keep on winning. John Beilein is probably the most underrated coach in college basketball, and he has his team poised to win a championship that nobody saw coming a month ago.
3. What a Run It Was. A #11 seed that beat an ACC team, an SEC team, the Mountain West regular season champion and a Big 12 team in succession doesn’t come around very often. Throwing in a certifiable national sensation like Sister Jean and her uplifting messages (and fandom!) couldn’t have made for a better story in these otherwise trying times. Porter Moser has had a middling career to this point but sometimes all it takes is a special team to lift a coach up and give him the opportunity he deserves. And while Loyola may have to regroup for another 50 years before its next trip to the sports final weekend, college basketball remains better for the chance it provides schools like the urban Jesuit school from Chicago to achieve its own One Shining Moment.

Player of the Game. Moe Wagner, Michigan. The German import had the game of his life on the sport’s biggest stage, going for 24 points and 15 rebounds in a diverse floor game that often propped up the Wolverines when they needed something to go in the basket. His production in the Final Four has only been equaled by Hall of Famers Larry Bird and Hakeem Olajuwon.

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With the Final Four set to begin this evening in San Antonio, the college basketball world is getting close to crowning its 2018 National Champion. With the ultimate goal of standing atop a Werner ladder cutting down the nets now in sight, the question becomes what would a title mean for each of the remaining four programs. Let’s examine each in more detail.

Kansas Slayed Mighty Duke to Get to the Final Four (USA Today Images)

A National Championship for Kansas would… be the program’s fourth NCAA title overall, putting the Jayhawks in the same company as Connecticut, Duke, Florida and North Carolina as programs with multiple championships since 2000. A second ring would make Bill Self the 14th head coach with multiple titles and just the third active coach with at least two. It would also further erase the memory of first round exits at the hands of Bradley and Bucknell early in Self’s tenure at Kansas, as well as the no-shows against VCU, Northern Iowa and Oregon in recent years.

A win would also further elevate Devonte’ Graham in Jayhawks’ lore. The Big 12 Player of the Year, a consensus All-American, a four-year player, and the possibility of a National Championship could combine to getting Graham’s jersey lifted into the Allen Fieldhouse rafters some day.

A National Championship for Loyola would… be historic for the “little guy.” While a pair of wins in San Antonio would produce the program’s second National Championship, the shift of the college basketball landscape over the last several decades has put all but a few mid-major programs like Loyola in a large and difficult hole. The annual margin of error is minuscule come conference tournament time and NCAA Tournament paths are rarely advantageous as a result. A win by a mid-major program would remind everyone that these teams deserve not only inclusion in the tournament, but they help make the tournament as great as it is.

By cutting down the nets on Monday night, Porter Moser would become the immediate “it” coach at any number of interested programs. While leaving Loyola immediately after a National Championship might be unlikely, a new contract at Loyola is a certainty. If Moser is able to guide Loyola to a championship this year followed by another strong season in 2018-19, he will have plenty of opportunities to vault himself into a power conference coaching position as soon as he likes.

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Now that the Final Four is set, our writers have put together a fact sheet on each of the four teams still remaining. Next, #3 Michigan,  from the West Region.

How Michigan Got Here

John Beilein is Headed to His Second Final Four (USA Today Images)

West Region Champions. It’s been something of a mixed bag for the Wolverines in the NCAA Tournament to date. Their Sweet Sixteen win over Texas A&M was a sight to behold, a truly impressive performance that balanced explosive and beautiful offense with tight, frustrating defense. But wrapped around that performance have been three other wins highlighted mostly by their defense, with more misses than makes on the offensive end. But really, Michigan’s run to the Final Four began following an ugly 61-52 loss at Northwestern on February 6. Since that night, the Wolverines have reeled off 14 straight victories, including a romp through the Big Ten Tournament in Madison Square Garden. Their run through this tournament began with a tough win over Montana in which they held the Grizzlies to just two points in the first 10 minutes of the second half to break open a tight contest. In the Round of 32, their goose was more or less cooked, down 63-61 to Houston with just 3.6 seconds remaining — at which point they had a 3.4 percent chance of winning the game. But a buzzer-beating miracle by freshman Jordan Poole gave them the single extra point they needed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. After doing a number to the Aggies in the regional semifinal, they withstood a gritty performance from Florida State last Saturday to advance to the program’s eighth Final Four in its history.

The Coach

John Beilein. John Beilein graduated from Wheeling College in 1975. Since then, he has never spent a basketball season as anything other than a head coach — he’s never been an assistant, nor has he taken a year away from the game. He worked his way through Newfane High School to Erie Community College to Division III Nazareth College to Divison II Le Moyne before finally getting a crack at a Division I job in 1992 with Canisius. He spent five years there, winning a regular season and tournament title to earn a crack at the Richmond job. In eastern Virginia, he again won a regular season and tournament title once each in five years, earning another upgrade to the job at West Virginia. He again spent five seasons there, making the NCAA Tournament twice including two runs to the Sweet Sixteen and an excruciating Elite Eight loss in overtime to Louisville in 2005. In 2007, Michigan hired Beilein to replace Tommy Amaker, and since then the well-traveled head coach has won two Big Ten regular season titles, consecutive Big Ten tournament titles, logged eight NCAA Tournament appearances in 11 years, advanced to four Sweet Sixteens and is now attending his second Final Four as a participant on the floor. By any measure, Beilein is considered one of the best coaches in all of college basketball.

Style

Beilein’s history at the Division I level has always been based around scoring. Since the beginning of the KenPom era in his final season at Richmond, his defensive efficiency has ranked higher than his offensive efficiency only five times. And his style has typically been associated with high utilization of the three-point shot. Only once in his 11 years at Michigan have the Wolverines attempted fewer than 40 percent of their field goals from three-point range, and this year is no exception. But, while this Michigan team attempts 43.1 percent of its shots from deep, they’re not quite as effective as some of Beilein’s other groups at just 36.1 percent. As always, however, Beilein is capable of adjusting. Over the past two seasons, Michigan has ranked among the top 10 teams nationally in taking away their opponents’ threes, holding them to fewer than 30 percent of their shots from distance. This year, under the assistance of defensive-minded assistant coach Luke Yaklich, the Wolverines have ramped up their defensive pressure, limiting opponents to a 47.6% eFG (35th in the nation) while also placing a priority on cleaning the defensive glass (24.7% offensive rebounding rate, 31st in the nation). While Michigan still runs many of the same offensive sets you’ve seen throughout Beilein’s career in Ann Arbor, it is an improved defense that sets this squad apart and gives it some necessary breathing room on nights that the shots aren’t falling.

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RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish. Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) is in Los Angeles for the West Regional this weekend.

Three Key Takeaways.

Michigan is Headed to Its Second Final Four Under John Beilein (USA Today Images)

1. A Game of Runs. After a first half that was like a tired slog through thick mud, Michigan followed up a Seminoles’ hoop on the first possession with an 11-0 run that spanned two Florida State timeouts and a media timeout and gave the Wolverines 10 points worth of breathing room. The Seminoles then spent most of the rest of the half digging out from that hole, finally getting back within three at the six-minute mark. But just a couple minutes later, a gorgeous hoop by Charles Matthews was followed by a Zavier Simpson layup and a Duncan Robinson three, making a 7-0 run that put the Wolverines back up 10 with just over two minutes remaining. Michigan had to withstand a late Florida State run fueled by their problems at the free throw line, but barring those two runs, the Wolverines would be headed back to Ann Arbor instead of on to San Antonio.
2. Defense Doesn’t Lose Championships. Michigan’s Sweet Sixteen win on Thursday night was highlighted by beautiful offensive basketball. Tonight? Well, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. In a much punchier game, both teams sold out on the defensive end and made things difficult for their opponents. Florida State’s defense forced 11 turnovers, swatted seven shots and forced Michigan into just 31.4 percent shooting from the field, including just 4-of-17 on shots from deep. But as good as Florida State was defensively, the Wolverines were even better. The Seminoles earned seven second chance points and eight points off turnovers. But when forced into the half-court, the Wolverines made them earn every point, forcing drawn-out possessions that often ended in poor looks. And while all this defense may sound like the recipe for a terribly ugly game, it was a hard-fought and high-wire contest that ultimately delivered.
3. Foul Shooting Issues. Michigan is headed to the Final Four behind a great defense and an offense capable of exploding. But if they have a possible Achilles’ Heel, it was on display in the final two minutes when they struggled to put the game away due to missed free throws. Simpson, in particular, struggles mightily from the line to the tune of 51.8 percent on the season, a serious issue from a guy who handles the ball so often and well. He missed the front-end of a one-and-one and went just 1-of-3 down the stretch. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman also missed a front-end and it took Robinson knocking down a pair with 21 seconds left to finally put away the Seminoles for good. But, as the stakes increase again next weekend, Michigan’s free throw challenges could be a looming problem.

Star of the Game.  Charles Matthews. While I’m torn about putting anyone’s name other than Michigan catalyst Zavier Simpson here, Matthews had a truly incredible game. Against the long and athletic Seminoles, he stood toe-to-toe with them, playing above the rim when needed, pulling down seven boards and even swatting away a couple of shots. He was a force in transition, both on the offensive break and in helping to slow down Florida State’s manys advances. And his beautiful jump-stop and fadeaway jumper in the lane with 3:51 remaining put the Wolverines up 49-44 and sparked a 7-0 run that just about put the game away.

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RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish. Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) is in Los Angeles for the West Regional this weekend.

Three Key Takeaways.

Michigan Could Not Miss For Long Periods on Thursday Night (USA Today Images)

1. When Michigan is Clicking… The Wolverines can play with anyone. You look up and down the roster and there are some nice pieces and all, but on paper they’re not super scary. Yet under the masterful direction of John Beilein, this is the type of team that maxes out its talent. For example, they’re playing the best team defense (by a wide margin) of any team in Beilein’s coaching career. Sophomore pest Zavier Simpson may be the star on that end of the court, but everybody on this team is adept at being in the right place at the right time to make life difficult for opponents. And offensively, while the season-long numbers aren’t to the level of some of the elite Beilein teams, they are plenty capable. Tonight it was Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Mo Wagner leading the way with 24 and 21 points, respectively, but five Wolverines scored in double figures and eight hit at least one three in the game in their blistering and highly efficient pace. Sure, Texas A&M didn’t provide much of a test for the Wolverines tonight, but when Michigan is playing like this, look out world.
2. Bombs Away. While this team isn’t quite as dangerous from deep as the best-of-the-best under Beilein (think Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway or Pittsnogle, Gansey, Beilein), they are still very dangerous. They space the floor, move the ball as a way of life and they’ve got four guys on the roster who have hit more than 20 threes this year at better than a 37 percent clip. Tonight’s 14 threes (on just 24 attempts) combined with their style of play everywhere else meant the Aggies never had a chance.
3. Take the Fight Out of Them. Texas A&M came out of the gates tonight a little flat. Maybe it was nerves or perhaps a little hangover effect from their big win last weekend in Charlotte over North Carolina. Whatever the case, after three turnovers and some sleepy defense they found themselves down 9-4 when the first media timeout rolled around. But rather than find an alarm clock during the respite, they hit the snooze button as the Wolverines reeled off a 12-2 run over the next three-plus minutes to take a 13-point lead. The game was never close again, and somewhere in the middle of the first half, the Aggies seemed ready to throw in the towel — visibly shaken and regularly caught giving less than their best effort. While Billy Kennedy got his guys to give some better effort in the second half, there was no point after that first Texas A&M timeout when this game was ever remotely in doubt.

Star of the Game.  Zavier Simpson. There were a lot of stars in maize and blue tonight, but Simpson was the catalyst on both ends of the court. Defensively, he is an ever-present pest that makes even the simplest offensive maneuvers for opposing guards difficult. When he’s got the ball in his hands, he is quick, decisive, smart and dangerous. Tonight he contributed 11 points, five assists and six steals, numbers that only begin to describe the positive impact he had on the game.

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Today and tomorrow we will be rolling out our region-by-region analysis for the 2018 NCAA Tournament. Here, Andrew Murawa (@amurawa) breaks down the West Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC West Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates over the next two weeks (@RTCWestRegion).

WEST REGION

Favorite: North Carolina, #2, 25-10. At first glance, this is a wide open region with no dominant team. The Tar Heels are the highest rated KenPom team in this group at #7, but they are just one of six teams in the region that fall between #7 and #17 in that metric. In other words, this region is anybody’s ballgame. What sets Roy Williams‘ squad apart from the rest of the contenders fighting to come out of the Staples Center is the level and quality of the experience on this team. All five players who average double figures in scoring (Luke Maye, Joel Berry, Cameron Johnson, Kenny Williams and Theo Pinson) are upperclassmen, and three of the four saw significant action in last year’s National Championship run. In March, offense wins championships, and this Tar Heels team is an elite offensive squad with the experience and savvy to make a return trip to the sport’s final weekend.

Roy Williams’ Team is the Favorite Here, Whether He Likes It or Not (USA Today Images)

Should They Falter: Michigan, #3, 28-7. If you’re looking for a hot hand to ride, look no further than the Wolverines. Since an ugly road loss to Northwestern in early February, John Beilein‘s squad has reeled off nine straight wins, including an impressive one-two punch in the last two games of the Big Ten Tournament to earn the automatic bid. Balanced scoring and an uncharacteristically stingy defense are the hallmarks of this group, but Michigan is highlighted by veterans who take care of the ball, can knock down the three and do all the little things on defense. However, beware of the team’s week-plus layoff after an early Big Ten Tournament along with a slow pace which could allow lesser teams to stick around deep into the game.

Grossly Overseeded: Xavier, #1, 28-5. Sorry Musketeers fans. It’s bad enough that we made it through those first two bullet points without mentioning the #1 seed in this region, but to have them show up here must seem like adding insult to injury. Nothing against Chris Mack‘s clearly talented and accomplished club, but some team has to go in this spot and Xavier doesn’t possess the traditional metrics of a top seed. For instance, try digging through KenPom‘s historical rankings to find another #1 seed ranked as low as Xavier defensively (59th) and you’ll find that Nate Robinson and Brandon Roy in 2005 were the most recent distinction — and that tourney didn’t exactly end well for Washington (lost to Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen). That’s not to disparage this squad. Trevon Blueitt is among the best players in the nation. J.P. Macura is an elite college basketball villain (depending on who you root for). And Mack has lined up his next wave of program leaders with the likes of Quentin Goodin and Naji Marshall. But no one would be surprised to see the Musketeers suffer an early exit either.

Criminally Underseeded: Houston, #6, 26-7. It’s hard to get too worked up about a seven-loss AAC team only getting a #6 seed with blemishes like Drexel, Tulane and Memphis on its resume. But Kelvin Sampson‘s Cougars are a tough, balanced and veteran team. They feature five upperclassmen in their rotation, defend like crazy and have a fearless trio of guards – Armoni Brooks, Corey Davis and Rob Gray – who can get hot from three at any moment — each player has hit at least five threes in a game on multiple occasions this season. A #6 seed is probably an appropriate seed for Houston, but you can bet Michigan isn’t in love with seeing the Cougars as a potential first-weekend opponent.

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Below is a review of how the selection process concluded for each Big Ten team and what they should expect in the first few rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

Can Michigan stay red-hot in the Big Dance? (SI.com)

• Purdue, #2 seed, East Region. Fatigue played a role in Purdue’s late-season slide, which makes its first-round draw — a Friday match-up against Cal-State Fullerton — especially beneficial. While the Titans are the most aggressive squad in the country, scoring nearly 25 percent of their points at the free throw line, no team in the NCAA Tournament surrenders fewer points at the charity stripe than the Boilermakers. Isaac Haas and the rest of his front line should have no problem limiting Fullerton’s paint production. A potential second-round game with Arkansas could be a different story. The Razorbacks play an uptempo brand of basketball and have the size up front — 6’11” freshman Daniel Gafford (11.9 PPG, 2.1 BPG), in particular — to compete. Still, whether it winds up being Arkansas or Butler, expect Purdue to reach the East Regional in Boston.
• Michigan State, #3 seed, Midwest Region. Despite a 29-4 record and regular season Big Ten title, Michigan State fell to the #3 line because of its dearth of Quadrant 1 wins. As a consolation prize, the Spartans get to play in Detroit, where they’ll take on Patriot League champion Bucknell. The Bison are a balanced, cohesive group that nearly upset #4 West Virginia in last year’s Dance. They also have size up front (namely 6’10” all-league center Nana Foulland) and considerable depth. Michigan State’s size and talent should ultimately overwhelm the Bison, but a harder-than-expected match-up could make the Spartans’ Second Round game a bit more interesting. Arizona State and TCU are two of the best offensive units in the country, while Syracuse boasts the tallest lineup in college hoops.

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Now that we’ve had a few days to digest what happened in Madison Square Garden last weekend, let’s examine some of the biggest surprises and takeaways from the early Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan dominated the Competition in Madison Square Garden. (Nicole Sweet-USA TODAY Sports)

• Michigan established itself as a legitimate national threat. We knew Michigan was playing its best basketball of the season entering postseason play, and we knew it would probably make some noise last week in Manhattan. What we did not foresee was the Wolverines establishing themselves as a serious Final Four threat en route to a second straight conference title. After escaping Iowa in the second round, Michigan put together three of the most complete performances any Big Ten team has displayed this season. The Wolverines hammered bubble-dwelling Nebraska by 19 points. They beat Michigan State by double-figures for the second time in a row. They limited Purdue’s explosive perimeter game to just 4-of-17 three-point shooting. In all, Michigan’s defense — which now ranks sixth nationally in efficiency — held opponents to just 0.96 points per possession over the four-day run, which is remarkable considering that two of those offenses ranked among the nation’s top 10. The Wolverines’ offense, led by Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (15.0 PPG), executed John Beilein’s low-turnover, pick-and-pop offense to perfection. With its most balance in years and a profile good enough to now warrant a #3 seed, Michigan should no longer be viewed as a Big Ten “other”; the Wolverines are as much a Final Four contender as the Boilermakers and Spartans.
  

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The Big Ten deciding to host its conference tournament to New York City was widely derided, but after a week filled with mostly thrilling games and a surprise team emerging to take home the title, many are now wondering what it will take to have the tournament there again. By winning four games in four days, #8 Michigan took home the Big Ten hardware on Sunday at Madison Square Garden. The Wolverines are playing their best basketball of the season right now (unbeaten since February 6), and their keen ability to score points in bunches and get after teams defensively should make John Beilein‘s team a popular pick to reach the Final Four later this month. This week’s Quick N’ Dirty analysis is after the jump.

Quick N’ Dirty Analysis.

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It’s not even March yet and here we are, Day One of the Big Ten Tournament. It’s a strange feeling. Perhaps the only stranger feeling will be watching these predominantly Midwestern schools battle it out in Madison Square Garden, the venue where Willis Reed was immortalized and Frazier beat Ali and no Big Ten school outside of Rutgers sits within easy driving distance. Jim Delaney be damned, let’s examine the most important questions to be answered this week in Manhattan.

Crazy as it sounds, the Big Ten Tournament is in the Big Apple. (scarletknights.com)

• Can Nebraska do enough to earn an NCAA Tournament bid? After losing to Illinois on February 18, Nebraska took care of business by beating Indiana and hammering Penn State on Sunday in a veritable NCAA Tournament elimination game. Which is to say, the Cornhuskers — currently among Joe Lunardi’s First Four Out — still have life. Yet, with a 1-5 record against Quadrant 1 opponents and a 2-3 record against Quadrant 2, they will probably need to beat at least one NCAA Tournament-bound opponent this week in order to have a legitimate case come Selection Sunday. Luckily, Tim Miles’ group should get that opportunity on Friday against Michigan — the lone Quadrant 1 opponent they managed to beat this season. Another win over the Wolverines will give the Huskers an argument; a victory over Michigan State in the semifinals would probably make them a lock. Key number: 29.7% 3FG. Nebraska did a masterful job taking away the three-point line this season, holding opponents to a Big Ten-best 29.7 percent mark from behind the arc — among the best of any power conference team in America.
  

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