Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @TheMulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

We are in the final stretch before conference tournaments tip off and there are several key match-ups this week that will help to determine not only postseason seeds but regular season titles. Let’s not waste any time and get to the breakdowns!

Indiana at Michigan State – 7:00 PM EST, Tuesday on ESPN (*****)

How does Tom Izzo stop Indiana’s Victor Olidipo from lighting up the Spartans again?

• It doesn’t get any bigger than this game this week, as the Hoosiers and the Spartans battle for sole possession of first place in the Big Ten. Michigan State faces a gauntlet of games as it goes up against Indiana at home, Ohio State and Michigan on the road, and then back home against Wisconsin. It is highly unlikely that they will get through the next four unscathed, so this first game at home is crucial if they want to win a regular season Big Ten crown. In the teams’ previous game this season, IU defeated MSU 75-70 in Bloomington. Tom Izzo’s squad turned the ball over too many times, couldn’t hit their two-point shots, and didn’t get to the free throw line enough. Since then, the Spartans have won five straight and are looking better and better each game. They are being led by point guard Keith Appling. Appling is averaging 16.4 points per game in their current five-game winning streak, since going 1-of-4 with three points in the loss to IU. Appling will once again be a key factor as the Spartans will need his scoring and play-making abilities. Izzo will also need his defense to figure out a way to stop Indiana’s Victor Olidipo. Olidipo torched the Spartans last time out for 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting. If Indiana is allowed to go 19-of-32 again from inside the paint, Michigan State will struggle to find a way to win. The Spartans need a better defensive effort on the interior and better rebounding if they are going to overtake the Hoosiers for the Big Ten lead.

  Virginia at Miami (FL) – 9:00 PM EST, Tuesday on ESPNU (****)

• While Miami remains undefeated in the ACC and is aiming for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney, they face two tough tests the remainder of the season against Virginia at home and against Duke on the road. The Cavaliers have been anything but road warriors in the ACC (2-4), but they present a tough match-up because of their ability to shoot the ball, especially from three. Keep a close on Virginia’s Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell. If they are to knock off the Hurricanes, these two players must have very big games. If UVA is still without 6’11” Mike Tobey (mononucleosis), scoring on the interior will be tough against Miami’s 6’11” Kenny Kadji and 6’10” Reggie Johnson. The three-point shot is a significant part of the Cavaliers’ offense, so pay close attention to their effort early from beyond the arc. If they can stay in the game with some made threes, they will have a shot to win it in the end. However, the Hurricanes play lockdown perimeter defense too. This is a tall task for the Cavaliers, but it will still be an interesting match-up nonetheless.

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Kellen Carpenter is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Saturday’s game between North Carolina and Virginia in Chapel Hill.

When media members participated in the mock NCAA tournament selection panel, Virginia found itself on just the right side of the bubble, picked to play one of the “First Four” match-ups for one of the last at-large seeds. North Carolina, on the other hand, found itself on the outside looking in. Obviously, no one should draw too much from a fake committee making selections for a hypothetical Tournament, but the bracket that this group managed to draw up reflects the prevailing thought about both team’s NCAA chances: Each team is squarely on the bubble and, at least on Friday afternoon, it seemed like Virginia was the better team.

UVA Found Its Way to the Basket But Still Lost the Game

It will be interesting to see how Saturday’s result, a UNC victory, will influence the real committee. The Cavaliers shot a blistering 58.5% from the field and 57.1% from beyond the arc, with Joe Harris scoring 27 points from all over the court. Yet somehow, North Carolina won this game, and the manner of victory signals an interesting transition for this team’s identity. The Tar Heels won at the free throw line, and while that phrase has been written countless times, there has been little occasion to use it this season. Roy Williams‘ offensive philosophy has historically been largely based around getting his team to the free throw line at a very high clip. Yet this season, his team gets to the line with somewhat dramatic infrequency. The Tar Heels’ free throw rate this season is only 28.5%, good for 331st in the nation — the worst a Roy Williams-led North Carolina team has ever performed in this category. His second-worst season by this measure was last year, where UNC still managed to put up an above average 37.3% rate. In this game against Virginia, the team started to look more like the UNC teams of the past decade. North Carolina went to the line 30 times and converted on 22 attempts from the line. It was a surprising change from the way the team has played for most of the season.

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1. Fayetteville Observer: Props to Brett Strelow for finding useful information from the hideous headliner for ESPN’s Rivalry Week. Strelow focused on Tyler Thornton, paralleling the short defensive-minded Duke point guard to another short defensive-minded Duke point guard Steve Wojciechowski. The story commented on Thornton possibly becoming a coach (something I hadn’t thought about before but would make a lot of sense) as well as Mike Krzyzewski fighting North Carolina’s small line-up (and foul trouble) with Thornton at the four. All in all, it was a terrible game, but there’s a lot of good stuff here. As an aside, this shouldn’t be a story. After the game, Coach K ran out on the court to keep his players and security off the court (there was a weird clock situation where it didn’t start and then started late), not to stop the fans from rushing the court.
2. Riddick and Reynolds: James Curle took the ACC to task for wasting its last shot at a somewhat normal schedule before conference expansion truly takes hold. This year, for the first time since adding Virginia Tech, Boston College and Miami, the ACC had more home and homes than single game series. But the schedule is just as unbalanced as ever. Duke only plays two of its seven home and homes on either the first or second half of its schedule, meaning only Maryland and Miami get Duke on both sides of the halfway point in conference play. It seems like the conference would take advantage of the 18-game season, but no.
3. Gobbler Country: It’s no secret Virginia Tech‘s basketball team is struggling. A lot of that blame lies with Jim Weaver, the athletic director, for firing Seth Greenberg a month after the season ended. The justification–which unlike the timing and method made sense–was that Greenberg’s staff turnover wasn’t sustainable. But it’s starting to look like the turnover is as much a result of Weaver’s cheapness as Greenberg’s abrasiveness. That’s an issue. And will hamper Virginia Tech now and in the future. You have to invest in a coach and a staff to succeed year in and year out in college basketball. If Virginia Tech won’t pay up, Weaver can’t expect top-flight results. End of story.
4. The Virginian-Pilot: In case you haven’t been watching Charlottesville closely, Joe Harris has been phenomenal. Like first-team All-ACC phenomenal. He’s got the Cavaliers in sole possession of third place in the ACC (with some help from the ACC’s aforementioned unbalanced schedule) and in surprising contention for a bid to the Big Dance. He’s doing it with great shooting that’s finally broken free of his streakiness of past.
5. NBC Sports: Miami isn’t used to the big-time on the hardwood, and the Hurricanes clearly need some work on sologans (though Michigan’s “We On” wasn’t much better). They went with “40 Minutes of L” with a picture of Jim Larranaga. The obvious problems are the Hurricanes don’t run Nolan Richardson’s defense and that “L” will always be associated with losing.

There’s no doubt that Erick Green has been the best guard in the ACC this season. He scores and makes plays at a hyper-efficient rate while playing a ton of minutes at a very fast pace. No other guard in the conference has performed as consistently and as well. He’s miles ahead of the competition, but it’s not because of a lack of quality guards in the league. In fact, the ACC has a plethora of talented guards, playing well for a lot of different teams. Let’s get down to the big question though: If Erick Green is the best guard in the ACC, who is the second best?

Who Is the Second Best Guard In The ACC?

If you had asked this question not all that long ago, the answer might have been an easy one: Seth Curry. The Duke shooting guard is enjoying a strong year as a perfect complementary piece on this Duke team. Is Curry really the second best guard in the conference? What about undefeated Miami’s Durand Scott or the lead guard of another team that beat the Blue Devils in NC State’s Lorenzo Brown? What about some of the conference’s other great shooting guards like C.J. Harris or Joe Harris? None of these are crazy choices. Does Curry stack up?

Curry’s elite skill is scoring. He’s fourth in the conference in points per game and he is the second best guard in this measure after Erick Green. He’s not a volume scorer, but rather very efficient, posting an offensive efficiency mark of 114.2 this season with a usage rate of 22.1%. This is very good. However, from an efficiency standpoint, Curry is nowhere close to Reggie Bullock‘s silly numbers. Averaging a 129.1 offensive efficiency on 19.1% usage rate, Bullock is shooting better than Curry from every part of the floor: three-pointers, two-pointers, and from the free throw line. Bullock is a better play-maker, a better rebounder on both ends, has more steals and blocks, and by just about every account is a better defender. Curry has a slight edge in turnovers, and a serious advantage at getting to the line.  Still, it would be difficult to argue that Curry is playing better basketball than Bullock.

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1. Keeping It Heel: Ben Williams wrote this article before North Carolina‘s loss to Miami, but essentially he argues that the Tar Heels’ lack of veteran talent means there’s no “fix” to the team’s problems. I agree that there’s no fix, but it’s not about veteran talent. This team has talent (that admittedly isn’t used to being the first or second options on the floor). The problem is that the players don’t fit together quite right. Reggie Bullock and James Michael McAdoo aren’t wired to be the most aggressive guys on the floor, there’s no true post presence, and the freshmen can’t fill in the holes. But it is very true that this team has a much lower ceiling than its predecessor.
2. Hampton Roads Daily Progress: Whitey Reid evaluated Virginia after its letdown loss at Wake Forest earlier this week. He praised freshmen Mike Tobey and Justin Anderson for their play, but he should have called out upperclassman Joe Harris in addition to Jontel Evans. Both finished with a team-high four turnovers, and Harris shot abysmally from the floor. The turnovers were the difference in the game, though. It was the Cavaliers’ worst job protecting the ball all season, and they paid for it.
3. Soaring To Glory: This is a really good glass-half-full look at Boston College. One huge thing mentioned that many people may not know is that Boston College didn’t win any road games last season. This year’s team has already won two (at Virginia Tech and at Penn State). That shows some mental toughness and grit that simply wasn’t there last season. The roster is also slowly beginning to resemble an ACC-quality roster, as there’s talent through most of the starters this year. I’m not sure Steve Donahue will ever recruit a roster 10 deep with ACC talent, but he’s moving in the right direction.
4. Tallahassee Democrat: Florida State and North Carolina had disappointing non-conference campaigns. Both finished with one good win, though the Seminoles’ losses look a lot worse than those of the Tar Heels. But the two teams appear to be diverging in conference play. Florida State has bounced back with two road wins to start off conference action — including an impressive double-figure comeback to win at Maryland. North Carolina is 0-2 in conference play for the first time since 2008-09, and it doesn’t look like a focus issue. However the conference divergence only makes the Tar Heels’ trip to Tallahassee tomorrow more interesting. If North Carolina hopes to come away with a win, its bigs have to match up well with the Seminoles.
5. Washington Post: Speaking of the Terrapins’ loss to Florida State, Mark Turgeon thinks his team (and coaching staff) panicked down the stretch. Over a three-minute period, Maryland made seven substitutions to try to stop the bleeding. It’s safe to say a weak non-conference schedule definitely hurt along with so much youth in leadership roles. Suddenly Maryland has gone from the trendy runner-up pick in the ACC to a complete unknown.

After about a week of college basketball, it’s time to start panicking. You are an ACC fan and your team lost one of these first few games. In this, the cupcakiest time of the year, is often an ominous sign. So, of the teams that have already lost a game, who should be worried?

The Vaunted FSU Defense Didn’t Perform to Standards Last Week

Florida State lost to South Alabama last Friday, a shocking loss for the defending ACC Tournament champions. Should the Seminoles be worried about losing to what appears to be a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt Team? Not really. Florida State suffered from the classic college basketball upset: the threes fell for USA while there was an extended drought for FSU. While South Alabama shot a scorching 60% from deep, the Seminoles managed only 23.8%. This performance, on both ends, feels like a fluke. In USA’s next game against the hapless William Carey Crusaders, the team made threes at a reasonable 33.3% clip, while Florida State shot 55.6% from the perimeter against Buffalo. Sometimes a team gets hot when their opponent goes cold, so outside of demonstrating that even Michael Snaer can have good days and bad days, there appears to be no fundamental problem with the Seminoles.

Miami lost to Florida Gulf Coast University on Tuesday, a surprising but not-so-shocking loss for a Miami team that stumbled and lost to Division II St. Leo’s in the exhibition season. Florida Gulf Coast University has a decent team and the game was the home opener for the Eagles. This was never a gimme for the Hurricanes, though it was a game that they were expected to win. Still, Miami lost handily to the Eagles and the culprit was easily located: interior scoring. Miami shot a respectable though not spectacular 30.8% from three, yet managed to shoot only 27.5% from two. This is a troubling sign, considering that Miami boasts a big and impressive frontcourt in Kenny Kadji and Reggie Johnson. These two working in tandem should be able to score inside with near impunity. Yet Johnson in particular struggled, shooting only 2-of-8 and tallying five turnovers.  In the season opener, a home game against Stetson, Johnson went 6-of-16 from the field also, a staggeringly low total. Sure, Johnson ended up scoring a lot at the free throw line of that game, but when your center is shooting such a low percentage it is cause for concern.  Perhaps things will run a little smoother when Durand Scott, the team’s senior point guard, returns to the lineup, but Johnson’s surprising inefficiency is worth keeping an eye on. Miami isn’t in trouble yet, but considering the difference that Johnson can make for this team, it’s worth watching how the big man performs going forward.

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1. Not that there have been too many games to base these decisions on, but the first ACC player of the week for the season is Maryland forward Alex Len. The Ukrainian sophomore tallied a career high 23 points and 12 rebounds in Maryland’s close loss to Kentucky on Friday night in the Barclays Center. If Len can continue to play like that, he has a chance to move into the grouping of elite ACC big men that includes Mason Plumlee, James Michael McAdoo, and Reggie Johnson, among others. NC State guard Rodney Purvis took Rookie of the Week honors after leading his team in scoring against Miami (Ohio).
2. Keeping it Heel: Roy Williams is obviously a great coach with two national titles to his credit. But with this year’s team not of his typical mold in Chapel Hill, he has had to change his philosophy somewhat. It has long been a North Carolina tradition not to start freshmen at the beginning of the season when more proven options are available, but  Williams has gone with freshman Marcus Paige this season as the starting point guard. According to Horran Cameron, Williams has realized that the best players need to be on the court regardless of experience. It remains to be seen if Paige can blossom to the level of Williams’ national championship point guards Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson, but it is a good sign for the freshman that he has gotten this level of trust from Day One.
3. Today is ESPN’s 24-hour basketball marathon and it is capped off by one of college basketball’s great traditional match-ups:  Duke vs. Kentucky, this time, as part of the Champions Classic in Atlanta. It is the first time that Coach K and John Calipari have met since Calipari began coaching at Kentucky, and the first time the schools have met since December 2001. The featured matchup of this game will surely be Duke senior forward Mason Plumlee taking on Kentucky freshman sensation Nerlens Noel. While Kentucky may be athletically superior, they are a much younger team than Duke, and Coach K typically has Duke ready to play in these marquee early games. While this match-up will be excessively hyped throughout the day, treat it as an early season litmus test for two teams that have high expectations for this season.
4. Tallahassee Democrat:  Following Florida State’s disappointing opening game defeat to South Alabama, which dropped the team out of this week’s Top 25, Leonard Hamilton has called upon his upperclassmen to play an increased leadership role, especially senior guard Michael Snaer. With seven newcomers on the roster, Hamilton hopes that his upperclassmen can keep the team going while the younger players get acclimated to big-time college basketball. The likelihood of Snaer, Ian Miller, and Okoro White all having subpar games at the same time is pretty slim — although it did happen against South Alabama — so it is clear that these players will need to be on top of their games to avoid more embarrassing losses. There’s a lot of basketball left to be played, so it is good to see Hamilton trying to light a fire under his team after a lackluster opener, and it appeared to pay off considering Florida State’s resounding bounceback victory against Buffalo.
5. The Virginia Cavaliers have not gotten off to the best of starts, particularly with expectations fairly high following the program’s NCAA berth last year. Following a defeat in their opener against George Mason, the Cavaliers struggled to put away Fairfield in their NIT Season Tip-Off first round game in the only close game involving ACC teams last night.  However, with both starting point guard Jontel Evans and backup Malcolm Brogdon out with injuries, Tony Bennett was forced to turn to junior Joe Harris to run the point in crunch time. While they don’t play the same position, it looks as though Harris is going to be relied upon nearly as much as Mike Scott was last year to produce when the Cavaliers need help. While the experiment worked yesterday, Bennett surely hopes that Harris can move back off the ball to his more natural wing position and that his true point guards can return from injury as the competition in this tournament gets tougher (Michigan, Kansas State, and Pittsburgh are the other major conference teams in the event).

1. Inside Carolina: In the Roy Williams era, it hasn’t been too difficult for North Carolina to score. The combination of a brisk tempo and a humming offense has meant that Chapel Hill residents have gotten used to gaudy scores and the discounted biscuits that come when UNC scores over 100 during a home game. This year, however, it seems more likely that the team will derive more of its identity from defense. While John Henson and Tyler Zeller were great interior defenders, the perimeter defense of the Tar Heels was inconsistent at best last season. This year, with speedy Marcus Paige at the point and gifted defenders Dexter Strickland and Reggie Bullock on the wings, it seems likely that UNC could have one of the better perimeter defenses in the Roy Williams era.
2. Raleigh News & Observer: Down the road in Raleigh, North Carolina State is thinking about defense as well. Despite the lofty expectations that have been placed upon the Wolfpack, one of the easily spotted weaknesses for this team is defense. In Mark Gottfried’s first year, NCSU had a middling defense, and with the departure of paint protector DeShawn Painter and the ball-hawking tandem of C.J. Williams and Alex Johnson, there is concern that the defense could get worse. Still, the Wolfpack has been focusing on defense in practice, striving to improve in areas where the team fell short. C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell were often the cornerstones of NCSU’s interior defense last season, but both struggled to stay on the court due to foul trouble. Each is working on defending without fouling while maintaining the same intensity that served the team so well last year. Increased time on the court for either will do nothing but help North Carolina State become the elite team that many pundits are expecting.
3. Washington Post: The immediate eligibility of Dez Wells is a story with a lot of big time basketball implications for the Maryland Terrapins. On a human level it’s a big story for Wells, his family, his mentor, his teammates, and the Maryland basketball family as they all stood by him and hoped for the best when things looked bleakest for Wells. Sexual assault is a heinous offense that is psychologically damaging to its victims in a way that few other crimes are. To be wrongfully accused of committing this crime and to lose your place at school and on your basketball team is a heavy load for a young man to carry. It’s hard not to be happy for Wells who seems to have found a new and supportive home in College Park. His newfound eligibility is really just the cherry on top.
4. The Virginian-Pilot: James Johnson is the only rookie coach in the ACC this year, and his road will be far from easy as he tries to rebuild a Virginia Tech program that seemed permanently stuck just outside the NCAA Tournament under Seth Greenberg. The departure of Greenberg made things seem even more difficult as players transferred and recruits like Montrezl Harrell de-committed. The scary thing is that it could have been much worse. Erick Green, the senior star point guard of the Hokies, considered transferring away from Blacksburg as well but Johnson’s appointment (previously an assistant under Greenberg) to the head spot tipped the scales in favor of VT. Now the Hokies are going to try to enjoy a rebirth as an up-tempo team that complements a blistering, frantic attack with the determined inside presence of a now-healthy Cadarian Raines. Little is expected of Virginia Tech this season, but it sounds like Johnson and Green hope to surprise the rest of the ACC.
5. Washington Times: Last year, Virginia had a watershed moment with coach Tony Bennett. The Cavaliers were respected as one of the toughest defenses in the nation and Mike Scott was garnering praise as a potential All-American. When Bennett left Washington State to take on the project of rebuilding Virginia, it was clear that this wouldn’t be an easy job with a quick solution. It’s somewhat surprising then that Bennett was able to talk Washington native Joe Harris into following him to the other side of the country to play for a rebuilding team. Entering his third year, however, Harris is poised to take a starring role on a team that is expected to again make plenty of noise in the conference. Harris has NBA size and skills and, in a featured role for Cavaliers (including some time at the point with Jontel Evans out), the sharpshooting guard will hopefully see some more of  the seeds of his and Bennett’s hard work blossom.

1. Baltimore Sun: Maryland transfer Dez Wells‘ story is complicated. He was suspended four games after contributing to the Xavier-Cincinnati brawl last season; then he was expelled from Xavier after being accused with sexual assault. An Ohio grand jury refused to indict him on those allegations and the prosecutor assigned to the case called the school’s action against Wells “an injustice,” presumably because the university jumped to conclusions of improper behavior. The NCAA has denied Maryland’s appeal for Wells immediate eligibility, and good arguments can be made for both sides of the debate. However, the author’s allusion that Maryland is in the NCAA crosshairs while high profile schools like Kentucky skate by seems farfetched.
2. State of the U: State of the U caught up with Miami junior Rion Brown, who showed major improvements last season. Brown calls for Miami fans to take a more active role cheering on the team this season. He noted that Jim Larranaga no longer spends his time teaching philosophy, instead focusing on basketball; he also thinks the Hurricanes will be a faster team than last year. Brown is an under-the-radar guy Miami will really need to perform well if this season is going to live up to the hype.
3. Washington Post: Virginia Tech took a couple of steps back last season, finishing a disappointing 4-12 in conference play. The Hokies have a bona fide star in Erick Green, but he will need his teammates to step up their offensive production if Virginia Tech hopes to improve significantly this season. Mark Giannotto points to Robert Brown and Jarell Eddie on the perimeter as two players who need to take big steps forward this season. Eddie largely works as a set-shooter, reaping the rewards of Green’s penetration. Brown has the athleticism to take the ball inside, but he needs to improve his halfcourt offensive efficiency.
4. theACC.com: The ACC got some very good news recently as the NCAA released its graduation success rates (GSR) at the end of last week. The conference is tops of the six power conferences in GSR for football, men’s basketball, and baseball. While it’s not a perfect metric by any means, the GSR is better than the federal graduation rate, which ignores transfers altogether (while the GSR conversely holds schools accountable for transfers leaving in poor academic standing).
5. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Virginia’s backcourt got a little thinner for the beginning of the season, as freshman Teven Jones has been suspended for the team’s season opener. The Cavaliers have already lost defensive specialist Jontel Evans for a while as he recovers from surgery to heal a stress fracture in his foot. This leaves freshman Taylor Barnette and two-guard Joe Harris to run the point to start the year. Tony Bennett desperately needs someone to take the reins until Evans returns.

Throughout the preseason, the ACC microsite will release a preview for each of the 12 teams. Today’s victim: the Virginia Cavaliers.

The past season was excellent for the Virginia Cavaliers. Sure, the team only went 9-7 in the conference and exited the NCAA Tournament in a spectacular flame-out against Florida in its first game. Still, last season was a success for Tony Bennett. The team nearly ran the table in their non-conference slate except for a strange flukish loss to TCU. This impressive run included victories against Michigan, Drexel, Oregon, George Mason, and LSU. In conference play, Virginia was less consistent (though admittedly they played one of the tougher league schedules), with their two best wins coming against North Carolina State and Miami. Mike Scott‘s career year and Bennett’s pack line defensive scheme powered the Cavaliers to one of Virginia’s best seasons in the past few seasons. With Mike Scott now gone, can the Cavaliers match or better their high-water mark?

Tony Bennett Appears to Have the Cavaliers on the Upswing

Newcomers

The Cavaliers are bringing in a small army to bolster their depleted ranks. Teven Jones, Justin Miller and Taylor Barnette represent the incoming guard rotation. All three initially figured to see only back-up and spot minutes with incumbent senior point guard Jontel Evans taking up most of the time at point guard. Unfortunately for Evans, a stress fracture in his foot has the feisty defender and playmaker sidelined for the beginning part of the season. Unless Bennett elects to hand the keys to his team to senior walk-on, Doug Browman, these three freshmen will likely undergo a sudden baptism by fire.

At the wing, the freshman class brings in some potential future starters. Justin Anderson and Evan Nolte both have a nice array of skills, athleticism, and size at the small forward slot, where Virginia had only Paul Jesperson and converted shooting guards before the arrival of these two. If these guys can play defense to the coaching staff’s satisfaction, it’s likely that they will see plenty of minutes, and indeed, potentially a spot in the starting rotation.

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