1. The people over at Basketball Prospectus do some interesting statistical analysis and the latest project by Drew Cannon appears to be no different. Cannon is borrowing on the work of several others most notably the Marquette blog Cracked Sidewalks to build on a Value Add statistic for college basketball players. Cannon explains the basic statistical analysis in his post yesterday. Some people may get scared away by the use of variables and equations, but it is a rather simple analysis (the regressions involved in calculating the constants are a bit more complex). Cannon promises to release his Value Add rankings, which are only for offensive production, later in the day so be on the look out for it and we will be sure to link to it tomorrow with our thoughts on the results.
2. It is Tuesday so you know that means another edition of Hoop Thoughts from Seth Davis. Technically it comes out on Monday afternoon, but that’s too late to make our Monday M5. This week Seth takes a look at 10 bubble teams who helped themselves and 10 bubble teams who hurt themselves with their non-conference schedules. If you are a neutral observer and have been following closely the 20 teams he selected should not be a surprise, but if you are a fan of a bubble team and maybe be a little delusional (and all fans are to some extent) it could be a sobering reminder that your team has quite a bit of work cut out for them.
3. In an attempt to prevent another massive Nevin Shapiro-like scandal from occurring Miami has announced that its boosters would no longer be allowed to entertain student-athletes. For those of you who weren’t highly recruited athletes coming out of college, the NCAA allows “an occasional meal from a representative of athletics interests on infrequent and special occasions”, but this goes much further. As you would expect some current Miami boosters are not thrilled by the decision and expect it to have a negative influence on donations. For a program that already suffers from an apathetic fan base, this decision could further hinder any hopes of rebuilding the program into an athletic powerhouse.
4. Last week during a blowout loss at Michigan State, Iowa coach Fran McCaffery picked up a technical and responded by slamming a chair down on the court. Afterwards, the Big Ten was critical of McCaffery’s actions, but did not punish him and did not ask him to apologize. Instead, they simply hoped that he would not do something similar in the future. Yesterday, the athletic director at Iowa said that McCaffery’s actions had crossed a line, but again declined to punish McCaffery or seek any form of apology. For his part, McCaffery does not seem to be the least bit remorseful so don’t be surprised if we see this sort of juvenile behavior from him in the future.
5. Just when you thought the drama surrounding North Carolina‘s retreat from the court on Saturday was over, Roy Williams dropped this little gem during a local radio show: he meant to take his entire team off the court for the final 14.2 seconds of its 33-point loss at Florida State. Roy apologized to the five players who remained on the court saying his intent was to get everybody off the floor. While it is noble of Roy to defend the group, which included three walk-ons who so bravely risked their lives for the honor of their school, it does raise the question as to whether he intended to forfeit the game, which is what he would have been doing if he had taken everybody off the court.

It was very surprising to see so much criticism directed at Roy Williams for having the North Carolina bench depart to the locker room before the buzzer at the end of Saturday’s Florida State game. There are a lot of things to criticize about North Carolina’s performance, but this simply isn’t one of them. Despite Leonard Hamilton making it abundantly clear that North Carolina went to the locker room early at his urging, Internet commenters have been quick to throw around “bad sport” and “sore loser” labels. This is silly. Williams gracefully accepted Hamilton’s suggestion and the bulk of the North Carolina staff and players were able to exit the area without incident. Somehow, this has been interpreted as a disservice to the remaining North Carolina players who were left to face the rushed-court alone. Of course, this is patently ridiculous. In situations where a rush is imminent, off-duty police officers and event security staff generally have the responsibility of making sure that the visiting team is safely escorted to the locker room without incident. Generally, there aren’t enough of these staffers to adequately escort the entire team’s staff. By limiting the number of folks who needed escort to the five remaining North Carolina players, the security staff had a much more manageable, though still difficult task (the players left on the court still got bumped and pushed by over-exuberant and misguided Seminole fans). The move seemed sensible, safe, and agreed upon by both teams. It allowed for a safer rush. What’s wrong with this?

Leonard Hamilton Thought He Made Himself Clear

At the “neutral” site loss to UNLV, the court was rushed by excited Runnin’ Rebels fans, an undeniably exciting moment that was somewhat marred by a few boisterous fans knocking over members of UNC’s training staff. If you were Williams and you saw a way to avoid a repeat of a similar incident offered by your opponent’s coach, wouldn’t you take it? It was an odd thing to see, but all things considered it feels like the right and mature move by the leaders of both teams. The worst part about this little incident is how it takes the spotlight away from the impressiveness of Florida State’s thorough domination of the Tar Heels. It just seems odd to me that there’s so much to-do over how North Carolina left Tallahassee and not enough talk about how the team never even bothered to show up in the first place.

Let’s be clear about something right from the start: Yes, Deividas Dulkys probably had the best game of his life, but even if he had performed at 40% of the level he managed Saturday, Florida State would have still won this game against North Carolina. The eight made three-pointers? Yes, that’s fluky and it contributed to the massive margin, but the Seminoles would have won the game even with an average shooting night by Dulkys. For the sake of a conversation that goes beyond me marveling at the transcendent performance by the Lithuanian guard, let’s put aside his monster game and imagine that Florida State just won by say 14 points. That’s still an impressive win and it’s worth pointing out that this is the kind of win we have been expecting from Florida State all season even if not by this margin and not against this opponent.

Deividas Dulkys Was Otherworldly In FSU'S Victory (AP Photo / S. Cannon)

The Seminoles’ hallmark is defense, and the defense has mostly been there all season. The signature of the defense is fairly simple, a locked-down perimeter, a tough interior, and scads and scads of forced turnovers. North Carolina shot 4-of-21 from the three-point line, a figure that’s significant because it demonstrates two things about the Florida State offense:  how good they are at defending the three and how skilled they are at baiting opponents into trying to take it. Remember, North Carolina, coming into Saturday, shot a lower proportion of threes than all but a handful of teams in Division I. Baiting Kendall Marshall into trying at least five perimeter shots should be on any teams to-do list when it comes to beating the Tar Heels. In general, the defense played Marshall very cleverly, defending physical and close when he had the ball, forcing seven turnovers while giving Marshall a lot more space off-ball, leading to relatively inefficient catch-and-shoot opportunities. It was a perfectly scouted and well-executed defensive plan that’s honestly not too different from the sterling defensive performances the team has been putting on all season.

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1. BC Interruption: Let’s get started with the most important story of the weekend. Boston College has an ACC winning streak! I’m not sure whether this says that the Eagles are better than I expected (probably true), or that Virginia Tech and Clemson are much worse than I originally thought (also likely), but it sure does make ACC play more interesting. Oh, and by the way, Virginia Tech fans don’t need to worry about the bubble this year. Just for those keeping score at home the Hokies already lost to Wake Forest, Boston College and Florida State; the bad news is they play North Carolina, at Virginia, at Maryland and against Duke for the next four conference games. Seriously, that’s a very possible 0-7 start to conference play (though I’d put the over/under at one). Not good. But congratulations to the Eagles, who are a remarkable 2-1.
2. Searching For Billy Edelin: The other conference shake-up of the weekend came out of Tallahassee, where the Seminoles took the Tar Heels behind a woodshed and clubbed them for two hours to the tune of a 90-57 final score. At the heart of the Florida State offense was an unconscious Deividas Dulkys. Dulkys is a better shooter than people give him credit for (truthfully, I just assumed he couldn’t shoot because he’s on Florida State). The Lithuanian is actually one of the better shooters in the conference, and proved it with an 8-10 performance from the three-point line. He may not do it again, but Florida State fans will remember Dulkys’ career performance for a long time.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: Speaking of the beatdown, the other story (or diversion, in my opinion) from Tallahassee was Roy Williams taking his players off the floor before the end of the game to avoid potential injuries during the court rushing. Leonard Hamilton says it was his idea. That left five walk-ons to face the masses of Seminole faithful streaming onto the court solo. Obviously the move drew a lot of criticism. It also drew this awesome photoshop.
   
4.  Washington Post: Maryland‘s poor attendance has been documented this year. The same is true of the athletic department’s financial woes. Mark Turgeon is going to be a huge part of trying to overcome the department’s huge deficit over the next few years ($2.8 million this year alone). If he wins, people will come. It’s no coincidence that the basketball team’s revenue has declined since 2006. The school is also investigating outfitting the Comcast Center for concerts or adding ad ribbons between the upper and lower decks. I still think the most important thing is to start winning games. If Turgeon gets this program back in the upper echelon of the conference, the team should make much more money.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Speaking of guys who should be getting more attention, Mfon Udofia is playing much better in Georgia Tech’s recent games. Glenn Rice, Jr., gets most of the press because he is a better scorer and has name recognition, but Udofia may be more important. His current role is to “just be the coach on the floor, pretty much.” He’ll need to be more consistent if the Yellow Jackets want to make a run at finishing somewhere in the middle of the conference.

1. It seems like Ryan Boatright is having quite a bit of trouble with the NCAA this season. After sitting out six games to start the season for taking impermissible benefits (an airplane ticket from his AAU coach), the Connecticut freshman finds himself in the NCAA’s crosshairs again. As a result the school has decided to hold him out of competition until the NCAA makes a decision. While the school is not willing to disclose any more information at this time, at least one report suggests that the source of both this new allegation and the prior allegation is the ex-boyfriend of Boatright’s mother with a grudge against Boatright’s mother. While we cannot verify that report, we do find it interesting that the NCAA is going after Boatright again when we all know there are plenty of other athletes that have probably been involved in a violation of some sort especially with the seediness of the AAU circuit. And of course there is the issue of when the NCAA will make a decision, which would most likely be the deciding factor in when the school could let Boatright play again. As one local media member points out the last time took quite a while to figure out and there is no indication that this investigation will be any quicker.
2. It was an eventful weekend for North Carolina. On Friday they announced that Leslie McDonald would redshirt this season as he continues to recover from a torn ACL in his right knee. As we mentioned before McDonald could have provided the Tar Heels with another outside shooting option, but as it is they already have plenty of scoring options. On Saturday, the Tar Heels submitted one of the worst performances by a national championship contender that we can remember in 33-point loss at Florida State. Things got so out of hand that Leonard Hamilton suggested to Roy Williams that he send his UNC team to the locker room except for the five players on the court before the FSU students rushed the court.
3. Eastern Illinois received a commitment on Friday from former Connecticut reserve guard Darius Smith. Smith, who transferred from UConn after his freshman year, spent a year at a junior college in Idaho where he had to overcome injuries from a car accident and managed to put up solid if not spectacular numbers (8.4 points, 5.3 assists, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.1 steals per game). For Smith, a coveted recruit out of Marshall High School in Chicago (the school Arthur Agee graduated from), this means a chance to prove himself at the Division I level in his home state.
4. Yesterday, one of Bernie Fine‘s accuser admitted that he had lied about being sexually molested by Fine. Floyd VanHooser, who was the fourth individual to accuse the former Syracuse assistant coach of sexually molesting him, claims that his lies were born out of frustration with Fine for not hiring a lawyer for him to fight VanHooser’s latest criminal charges stemming from a burglary charge, one of dozens that he has reportedly been arrested for. While VanHooser’s claims, which were deemed to be not credible by the District Attorney at the time, can be taken off the list against the allegations against Fine, they should not necessarily lessen the credibility of the other accusers.
5. As part of the ongoing debate on scholarship reform the NCAA announced its support for the $2,000 stipend proposal, but directed a working group to come back with a proposal for its implementation in April. In essence, the NCAA asked a committee to figure out a way that the proposal could work within the boundaries of Title IX and the financial differences between big-time and small Division I programs. While the press release indicates that the rules change could go into effect as early as the 2013-14 season, it does not explain how this would impact high school seniors who signed scholarship offers in the fall when they were promised the $2,000 stipend.

Probably the best description of the ACC came on Twitter: The ACC is “Schrödinger’s League. The state of it is unknown, and by viewing it we change it.”

1. Tomahawk Nation: Michael Rogner takes the Florida State message boards to task over Leonard Hamilton. He goes off. It’s an absolute evisceration. And I totally agree. Hamilton made Florida State relevant. Seriously, look at the Seminoles before he showed up. Eight straight seasons where they finished seventh or worse in a nine-team conference. Anyways, it’s worth a read (especially if you’re one of those people calling for Hamilton’s job).
2. Morganton News-Herald: A small-town look at the beginnings of the ACC? Yes, please. This should be a pretty cool series over the next couple of weeks looking at the the rise of the ACC starting with the Big Four (North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest and NC State). NC State legend Everett Case gets a good deal of credit for bringing both talented players and the Dixie Classic to the conference, but don’t overlook North Carolina’s Frank McGuire either.
3. ESPN: At Wednesday night’s game, North Carolina took some time to honor announcing legend Woody Durham. The booth is now named for the play-by-play voice of the Tar Heels who covered the team for four decades. Robbi Pickeral sat down with the broadcasting legend. He still keeps an index card in his pocket even if it’s just for fun.
4. Annapolis Capital: John McNamara pretty much nails Maryland‘s issue against NC State in one word: toughness. The Terrapins kept things interesting, but you never got the feeling they could turn the corner, as NC State just looked tougher, especially inside. The toughness is definitely compounded by a short bench, which forces the Maryland starters to play minutes even when they’re exhausted. Terrell Stoglin has it going on offense, but if this team can play tough for an entire game, it will be a very good in College Park. I’m not sure Maryland is ready to contend in ACC play, but it will definitely beat some teams who aren’t playing their best on certain nights.
5. Raleigh News & Observer: Speaking of flaws and toughness, NC State showed some signs of regression in its 11-point loss to Georgia Tech at home Wednesday night. The Wolfpack cut the deficit to five before collectively imploding (bad defense, a couple of bad calls, some missed shots and a Gottfried technical in the span of a couple of minutes pushed the lead back to double digits). This wouldn’t be a terrible loss on the road, but at home? Way too many flashbacks to the last couple of disappointing seasons. Mark Gottfried needs to right the ship ASAP to get the Wolfpack back on track for a shot at the Big Dance.

Some semblance of order prevailed Tuesday night as Florida State managed a close win against Virginia Tech and North Carolina lodged a quietly scary win against Miami. Bernard James, the old man of the ACC, posted an 18-point, 15-rebound game (nine offensive rebounds) and Ian Miller offered the sufficient guard scoring (15 points) that the Seminoles had lacked in the early going. Virginia Tech simply couldn’t score at a strong enough clip against the defensive-minded Seminoles, managing a field goal percentage of only 30.5%. This is how we expected Florida State would win games, and it’s fun to see a team pull off a victory like this while still turning the ball over 19 times in a relatively slow-paced game. Did I say fun? I meant weird, but oddly gratifying.

Old Man Bernard James Had A Monster Game In The Victory Over Virginia Tech

Meanwhile, North Carolina’s convincing victory against Miami was scarier than you might expect. The Tar Heels draw a lot of offensive firepower from their triumvirate of big, athletic, sharp-shooting wings. Last night, Harrison Barnes went 2-of-12, Reggie Bullock went 2-of-6, and P.J. Hairston went 1-of-6. It was a 17-point win for UNC and the Hurricanes shot 41.8%. The ability to accomplish a high margin win without shut-down defense, hot shooting, or scoring from three of your best offensive players is what makes North Carolina such a dangerous team. Totally crushing an opponent in every facet of the game will always be impressive, but soundly beating a team despite lots of things going wrong? Just as remarkable.

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1. Sports Illustrated: Bubble Watch is back! The bad news is that the ACC only has three teams that are locks or should be in. The good news is there are five more still in the mix (aka teams that have an RPI under 100). The worse news is that Miami and Virginia Tech are now 0-2 to start conference play, leaving NC State, Florida State and Wake Forest to pick up the slack. In a year of middling power conferences the ACC should get four teams invited.
2. Tomahawk Nation: Speaking of the Seminoles, Leonard Hamilton’s team had a good old-fashioned block party against Virginia Tech last night. They blocked 25.4% of the Hokies’ shots (15-of-59 field goal attempts were blocked). Luckily, Michael Rogner pointed this out twice on Twitter because I totally glossed over it the first time. That’s an outrageous number. Oh, and Bernard James was a beast, going for 18 points and 15 rebounds (of which nine were offensive). The performance earned the Seminoles a road win for their efforts.
3. Washington Times: Maryland is much better with Alex Len in the lineup, but Mark Turgeon’s squad still has a long way to go. Specifically, the team’s transition defense was horrendous at the RBC Center on Sunday, but NC State’s athletic frontcourt exacerbated the problem, as Mark Gottfried rotated DeShawn Painter and Richard Howell to go against a gassed Len.
4. Raleigh News & Observer: Speaking of NC State, the Wolfpack are the only ACC team with five players averaging double figures for the season. This balance means there are several players who can step up on any given night. The problem is the team’s talent drops off fairly quickly after the top six.
5. Durham Herald Sun: Dexter Strickland is the newest Tar Heel to have to deal with fans calling for other players to start ahead of him. Last year it was Larry Drew II, as fans and the media called for Roy Williams to start Kendall Marshall instead. I was one of them. This year, I’ll stick with the coach. It’s true that Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston have been terrific and add an invaluable long-range threat to the offense. But I think Strickland helps the team chemistry where Drew clearly hurt it last season. The good news for Tar Heel fans is I expect Strickland to keep helping team chemistry regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench.

1. BC Interruption: Brian Favat responds to John Feinstein’s critique of ACC basketball since expansion. His argument is that expansion wasn’t the cause of ACC mediocrity, but volatile athletic directors. I certainly agree that expansion didn’t kill the conference’s competitiveness (though I think Mike Krzyzewski made a good point about diluting exposure somewhat), but I’d add the caveat that with success comes stability. The ACC lucked into a murderers’ row of coaches when building its reputation, but the streak ended as some retired. Athletic directors with “quick trigger fingers” certainly makes replacing coaches more difficult, but in the world of big-time college athletics, success is paramount. I may address this later, but this is definitely worth a read.
2. Miami Herald: Freshman Hurricane point guard Shane Larkin is the son of Barry Larkin, the baseball star who was just elected to the Hall of Fame. Naturally, his father has been hugely important in his athletic development. Specifically Larkin mentioned his game-day preparation and mentality. But most of all, it’s clear that the freshman is just proud and happy for his father.
3. Washington Post: Virginia‘s defense doesn’t look much different than last year, but it’s much more effective. The major difference: opponents’ three-point shooting. This year, the Cavaliers are doing a better job keeping opponents from collapsing the Virginia defense and kicking it out for an open three. Last year the team allowed opponents to shoot over 36% from three; this year, it’s only allowing them to shoot 27% from beyond the arc. We’ll see how that number changes with the better shooters in ACC play.
4. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: If you don’t know Bernard James‘ story, read this. Even if you do, there are some details about his life before the Air Force that I didn’t know about. James is one of the most inspiring players you’ll come by in all of sports. He, like many, had to find his own way — which led through three tours of duty in Iraq.
5. Richmond Times-Dispatch: Virginia Tech is in trouble. After sneaking into most people’s early NCAA Tournament brackets based on an uninspiring schedule, the Hokies promptly lost to Wake Forest to start conference play. Based on their offense at times against the Demon Deacons, the next game against Florida State could be even uglier. The bottom line is this is a must-win game for Seth Greenberg’s squad to silence critics and its own self-doubts. The same could actually be said for the Seminoles, so make sure to tune into ESPNU at 7:00 PM this evening.

1. Washington Post: John Feinstein takes a look at the ACC’s mediocrity since the additions of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College — despite a 9-0 vote against it from the basketball coaches — in 2004. Since then, the league has slowly become a two-team battle between Duke and North Carolina. Mike Krzyzewski faults the way the expansion was handled because it killed the round-robin for a system that benefits the same teams every year by having fixed playing partners (i.e., it’s fine for Duke and North Carolina because they get tons of exposure already and play each other twice, but Boston College plays Virginia Tech and Miami each year, which isn’t nearly as valuable).
2. Fayetteville Observer: Bret Strelow takes a look at the Duke coaching staff, anchored by three guards who all played together in Durham nearly two decades ago. Jeff Capel has already been a head coach, but there’s little doubt that Steve Wojciechowski or Chris Collins would struggle to find a head job if they looked. The three also have a record of dealing with adversity at Duke, having played in the infamous 1994-95 season when Coach K took most of the year off to recover from back surgery and the Blue Devils finished under .500. Now they’re trying to help a team that’s facing some recent adversity, albeit a whole lot less, achieve its potential this season.
3. Orlando Sentinel: Apparently Florida State felt “optimistic” going into its ACC opener against Clemson. Well, as you probably know, it’s going to be tough to be optimistic coming out of the game now. The Seminoles allowed nearly 80 points and lost by a final deficit of 20 to the Tigers, not exactly the start they were looking for. Now, with no real marquee wins and six losses already, Florida State is almost certainly on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Seminoles need to turn things around very quickly.
4. Duke Basketball Report: Strelow mentioned it briefly in his article above, but Al Featherston also talks about the new positioning of Jeff Capel on Duke‘s bench. Capel now sits in the middle of the bench where he can talk to players as they come out or to try to get a feel for the team’s sideline energy. Two players I expect he’ll talk to frequently are Tyler Thornton and Quinn Cook, who Coach K has running the point together currently to help Seth Curry move off the ball where he excels. As the year goes on, expect Cook to see more and more time and Thornton to be used primarily as a spark plug at crucial junctures.
5. Charlotte Observer: The ACC is transitioning both on the bench and on the court. The conference has multiple new coaches for the second time in as many years, while freshman play an important role on most teams trying to replace the departed stars. That transition has shown so far in the loss column, where ACC teams combined to lose an astonishing 50 non-conference games coming out of the weekend.