Thursday night was not a good night for people who like close games. Despite admirably hanging tough for a chunk of the game, there was no way Boston College was going to out-tough Virginia, with or without Assane Sene. Meanwhile, upset-minded North Carolina State received a stern reminder in Chapel Hill that their turn around isn’t complete just yet. Saturday, however, offers some intriguing story lines, capped up with an epilogue to Thursday night’s action.

Prime Time Showdown

NC State Not Quite Ready For Prime Time

• Virginia at North Carolina State at 8:00 PM on ESPN2

The Cavaliers bounced back from their surprising loss to Virginia Tech last weekend with a command performance against the thoroughly outgunned Boston College. Playing in Raleigh against a North Carolina State team that was embarrassed on Thursday, Virginia has a more challenging task ahead of them. Both of these teams are probably among the top five teams in the conference, but both have a lot to prove. If Virginia wants to have any hope of remaining in the polls, they need an overpowering road win against the Wolf Pack. North Carolina State, on the other hand, needs a win by any margin. The blessing and curse of the conference schedule for NC State is that it’s relatively soft. The team will finish the year with plenty of wins, but their chances for quality wins are few and far between. Taking care of a beatable Virginia team at home is a must if NC State wants to be playing basketball throughout March.

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The Hurricanes won their first ACC game despite allowing the Clemson Tigers to shoot 47.4% from the field, losing the offensive rebounding and the turnover battle. How do you win against a team that took more shots and nearly shot 50%? Well, you just have to shoot better than 50% yourself. In a dazzling offensive performance, Miami shot 51.9% from the field, made 9-of-20 three-pointers and converted 13-of-14 free throws. Miami may have gotten fewer possessions than Clemson, but they certainly made the most of the shots they got. Miami’s primary four guard rotation of Malcolm Grant, Durand Scott, Trey McKinney-Jones, and Shane Larkin all managed at least three assists and two steals. These aren’t huge numbers, but when you have four guys on the perimeter who are such capable play-makers and ball-hawks, it’s going to really help your team win. Another thing that will help your team win against Clemson? Holding Andre Young to 0-of-6 from beyond the arc.

Too Much To Prove

• North Carolina at Virginia Tech at 9:00 PM on ESPN

What Does Roy Have In Store For Us Tonight?

Virginia Tech has yet to win a conference game despite playing both lowly Boston College and Wake Forest. North Carolina is coming off a nationally televised beatdown which is the worst loss of Roy Williams’ career. One thing is certain about this game: Both teams should be playing as hard as they can. While it’s easy to expect a dominant Tar Heel bounceback, the Hokies have a couple of things going for them that makes this a tough match-up for North Carolina. UNC’s slumping three-point attack will be tested against a Hokies’ defense that’s even better than Florida State at defending the perimeter. Virginia Tech’s opponents have managed a meager 26.2% from long range. A lot of this has to do with the personnel that Seth Greenberg can put on the wing. With a number of quick, long forwards like Dorian Finney-Smith and Jarrell Eddie as well as two 6’5″ guards in Dorenzo Hudson and Robert Brown, the Hokies are one of the few teams that can match up with Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, and P.J. Hairston without much trouble. Even worse for the Tar Heels, Erick Green is the exact kind of player (quick guard with a long-distance touch and play-making abilities) that is easily capable of hanging thirty on North Carolina. That said, Virginia Tech hasn’t proven anything this year: In every big game the Hokies have played, they’ve lost. You could say that they’re due a big win or you can say the lack that intangible mental toughness. Either way you see it, the Hokies will have a hard time dealing with the post presence of Tyler Zeller and John Henson. Virginia Tech’s biggest guys aren’t all that big, not all that skilled, and frequently suffer from foul trouble. It’s a tough matchup for any team, but if Carolina can get the ball inside on offense and prevent an Erick Green-based perimeter onslaught on defense, UNC takes the first step out of the shadow of Saturday’s brutal loss.

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Florida State‘s 14 point win over Maryland is impressive because of how little it fits the template of how Florida State has played this past season. The Seminoles allowed the Terrapins to shoot 50% from the field while “only” managing 47.5% for themselves, yet still come away with the decisive win.

Bernard James Led the Seminoles To Its Third Straight Win Last Night (US Presswire)

Leonard Hamilton‘s team won this game by doing two things that they have struggled to do in the early going: prevent offensive rebounds and win the turnover battle.  Maryland managed only seven offensive rebounds despite excelling in this category for most of the season. The Terrapins also turned the possession over a total of 15 times, which isn’t exactly unexpected for a team that has struggled with ball control all season. The small surprise is Florida State’s surprisingly low nine turnovers. Granted, Maryland’s light ball pressure defense deserves a lot of the credit for that, but the win is still impressive for the statement it sends: Florida State won by overcoming its weaknesses. If the Seminoles ever manage to control their weaknesses while flexing their strengths to their fullest potential, the ACC is in trouble.

The Disappointment Bowl

• Clemson at Miami at 7:00 PM on ESPN3.com

No matter how this game turns out, the combined ACC wins of Clemson and Miami will double after the final buzzer sounds, a sad statement on two teams that I thought would be ready to go dancing in March. Clemson’s single win comes from a surprising drubbing of Florida State, which was then bizarrely followed by a loss to Boston College, though the subsequent loss to Duke is a little more understandable. Miami comes into this game without a single conference win, but considering that their schedule started with Virginia and North Carolina on the road, the lack of a win is much less surprising. In any case, neither team has managed to come together quite like it should, but with Miami slowly but steadily coming together, I like them to get the win in their home opener. Reggie Johnson is still playing his way back to where he was last season and Malcolm Grant has been in as bad a shooting slump as he’s ever been in his career, but newcomers Kenny Kadji and Shane Larkin add an extra dimension to a team that is bursting with potential.

Before we get started, how about a pretty amazing stat from last night. Duke shot below 50% from the foul line and 25% from three for the first time in school history in its win against Virginia (to be fair, the Cavaliers went 0-11 from three in the second half in a game they lost by three).

1. Gobbler Country: The Virginia Tech blog takes a look at the Hokies and hands out grades for the starters. Erick Green leads the way with an A followed by Jarell Eddie with a B+. Eddie, in particular, came out of nowhere for me especially. I personally thought the C- for Dorenzo Hudson was generous. True, his numbers aren’t terrible, but I sort of expected him to excel as the second option for Green. The best news from this post is that they still believe in true grades, giving a C to Dorian Finney-Smith despite the fact that “he has nearly met them and exceeded them on the boards”. Take that grade inflation.
2. Shakin’ The Southland: While we take a jaunt around the blogosphere, this wins the lede of the night: “We just lost to Clifford the Big Red Dog and his merry band of freshmen.” Boston College gets its first conference win! The Eagles pulled off the upset over Clemson exactly how I imagined, knocking down eight threes in a slow game while their opponent went ice cold down the stretch. It’s a great win for the Eagles and a horrendous loss for Clemson coming off an exciting conference opener.
3. Baltimore Sun: Mark Turgeon needs more out of Ashton Pankey, Terrell Stoglin, and Alex Len. Pankey played some solid games when Len was on the bench, but losing his starting spot has killed his productivity. Turgeon’s criticism of Stoglin seems harsh, but I think–like the other players–it’s really a compliment. As for Len, Turgeon just wants him to get in game shape.
4. The Sporting News: Sorry to be recap heavy, but it was an important night in conference play. Duke pulled out the victory in the end, but give Virginia a lot of credit. It played Duke too close for comfort all night. Mike Scott showed he’s almost certainly the most valuable player thus far in the conference. On Duke’s side, Mason Plumlee would be en route to a first-team All-Conference season if not for unbelievably bad free throw shooting. Against the Cavaliers, Plumlee finished 2-10 from the charity stripe.
5. South Florida Sun-Sentinel: About the lone bright spot from Miami’s beatdown at North Carolina was the continuing solid play from Kenny Kadji. Kadji, once a top recruit at IMG Academy, is finally starting to reach his potential. He’s developed a solid jumper in addition to solid post skills (that will certainly be improved with some more weight). Keep an eye on the Miami little-big man going forward.

Speaking of North Carolina and Miami, I failed to notice something about the game. Fred Black, a contributor at Chapelboro, thought the North Carolina crowd has been “boorish” the last couple of games. I was at one of those games and the last thing I would’ve described the crowd as is “boorish.” Also, I love the vague “school up the road” (coughDUKEcough) with a reputation for “boorish” fans [Author’s Note: For the record, some people think he’s referring to NC State, which could be true and would be equally funny.].

The middle of the ACC is so muddled that honestly I don’t know what to make of last night’s results. Of course, after all my talk, Alex Len was barely a factor in the Terrapins victory over Wake Forest, while forwards James Padgett and Ashton Pankey grabbed six offensive rebounds apiece, enough to make up for a lousy shooting night all around for Maryland. It’s a nice performance for the under-heralded freshman Pankey, but for Padgett, we really should have seen this coming. Somehow this willowy, 6’8″ junior continues to lead Division I in offensive rebounding percentage. I don’t know how he does it, but the Terrapins owe at least one win to him.

The Terps and Len Snuck Past Wake Forest Last Night in College Park (AP)

Meanwhile in Raleigh, the ever-promising Wolfpack took a slide backwards in a loss to Georgia Tech. While North Carolina State showed moxie on offense and won the possession battle, Mark Gottfried‘s team lost the war by allowing a truly mediocre shooting team to score at will. Now, will the Yellow Jackets go 9-for-15 from three-point land in any other game this season? Probably not. Whether you want to chalk this win up to hot shooting or not, it’s becoming increasingly clearer that NC State needs to start taking defense seriously or more embarrassing losses are soon to follow.

The Heavyweight Bout

• Virginia at Duke at 9:00 PM on ESPN

1. Washington Post: John Feinstein takes a look at the ACC’s mediocrity since the additions of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College — despite a 9-0 vote against it from the basketball coaches — in 2004. Since then, the league has slowly become a two-team battle between Duke and North Carolina. Mike Krzyzewski faults the way the expansion was handled because it killed the round-robin for a system that benefits the same teams every year by having fixed playing partners (i.e., it’s fine for Duke and North Carolina because they get tons of exposure already and play each other twice, but Boston College plays Virginia Tech and Miami each year, which isn’t nearly as valuable).
2. Fayetteville Observer: Bret Strelow takes a look at the Duke coaching staff, anchored by three guards who all played together in Durham nearly two decades ago. Jeff Capel has already been a head coach, but there’s little doubt that Steve Wojciechowski or Chris Collins would struggle to find a head job if they looked. The three also have a record of dealing with adversity at Duke, having played in the infamous 1994-95 season when Coach K took most of the year off to recover from back surgery and the Blue Devils finished under .500. Now they’re trying to help a team that’s facing some recent adversity, albeit a whole lot less, achieve its potential this season.
3. Orlando Sentinel: Apparently Florida State felt “optimistic” going into its ACC opener against Clemson. Well, as you probably know, it’s going to be tough to be optimistic coming out of the game now. The Seminoles allowed nearly 80 points and lost by a final deficit of 20 to the Tigers, not exactly the start they were looking for. Now, with no real marquee wins and six losses already, Florida State is almost certainly on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Seminoles need to turn things around very quickly.
4. Duke Basketball Report: Strelow mentioned it briefly in his article above, but Al Featherston also talks about the new positioning of Jeff Capel on Duke‘s bench. Capel now sits in the middle of the bench where he can talk to players as they come out or to try to get a feel for the team’s sideline energy. Two players I expect he’ll talk to frequently are Tyler Thornton and Quinn Cook, who Coach K has running the point together currently to help Seth Curry move off the ball where he excels. As the year goes on, expect Cook to see more and more time and Thornton to be used primarily as a spark plug at crucial junctures.
5. Charlotte Observer: The ACC is transitioning both on the bench and on the court. The conference has multiple new coaches for the second time in as many years, while freshman play an important role on most teams trying to replace the departed stars. That transition has shown so far in the loss column, where ACC teams combined to lose an astonishing 50 non-conference games coming out of the weekend.

I can’t help but be deliriously and feverishly excited about the beginning of intraconference play, but before we get down to brass tacks, there are a few things that we should probably be talking about before we settle up the conference pecking order. Let’s go over a few suggested topics of conversation before actual basketball begins.

1. Virginia is for real. The Cavaliers’ national ranking is totally deserved and barring injuries or collapse, this team is poised to make some noise in March. Mike Scott is the flavor of the week amongst the college basketball stat-erati because, well he is kind of killing it, but Virginia’s slow pace means that he’s not getting enough credit for it. The Cavaliers are certainly capable of taking down Duke or North Carolina and the team’s consistency is something that every other team in the conference envies.

Mike Scott Is Really Good

2. Scheduling is a double-edged sword. Both Maryland and North Carolina State have the talent to make the NCAA Tournament, but both also have some scheduling issues that might get in the way of these aspirations. Maryland has a daunting conference schedule that includes two shots apiece at Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke, as well as a non-conference tilt with Temple. That gives the Terrapins plenty of chances to register signature wins, but it also means that there are seven games on the schedule that are more likely to be losses than not. Conversely, the NC State Wolfpack has two games apiece against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. Mark Gottfried’s team is likely to rack up plenty of wins, but they have far less opportunities to make an impression with a certain tournament selection committee.

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1. Boston Globe: Al Skinner got fired from Boston College because of the perception that he wasn’t recruiting at the same level he used to (currently, he’s still looking for that next college job as an AAU coach). But if you look at the recruits he had lined up for the Eagles before he left, they’re all performing very well at various schools around the country. I still don’t see a go-to guy on Boston College’s team if you add this bunch to the roster, but it’s certainly worth mentioning after the Eagles fell to 5-8 after being blown out by Harvard.
2. Orangeburg Times and Democrat: It was a long flight home for Clemson after losing two of its three games in the Diamond Head Classic. Because of Oliver Purnell’s notorious non-conference schedules the Tigers are off to their worst start since 2003 at a disappointing 7-6. Despite generous preseason numbers, Clemson saw its ranking from Ken Pomeroy drop steadily over the first few weeks as the losses continued piling up. Barring a miraculous conference season (read: winning the ACC Tournament), it looks like Clemson’s streak of five straight NCAA Tournament appearances will end.
3. Washington Times: Maryland quietly bettered its resume with six straight wins, albeit against unimpressive competition. The Terrapins finally got a wire-to-wire win against Samford Saturday thanks to strong games from Pe’Shon Howard, Terrell Stoglin and Nick Faust. The win came after Mark Turgeon threw the entire team out of practice the day before. Faust finally found the basket from long range (playing off the ball has helped his game). Today the team looks to continue its winning streak against Cornell before heading into conference play.
4. Baltimore Sports Report: Luckily, expansion speculation and rumors have died down, but the moves from earlier this year leave several conferences with the challenge (or in the ACC’s case, opportunity) of rebranding (or reestablishing) the conference with its new members. The Big East has the most work to do, trying to move from a regional to national footprint, while the ACC looks to reclaim its basketball dominance with Syracuse and Pittsburgh preparing to join in the next couple of years. It was one thing to talk about, but the augmented conferences will be very interesting to watch going forward.
5. Wilmington Star News: What were the top 10 ACC stories of 2011? Brett Friedlander does a pretty good job paring the list down, but I totally disagree with his ordering. I know Miami‘s scandal has fallen out of the news with other scandals and its ongoing investigation, but it or conference expansion has to be number one. Mark Gottfried‘s hire was a big splash in North Carolina, but it was way less important than Gary Williams’ retirement or overall coaching upheaval for the conference. The list is still worth a read.

EXTRA: Finally, take a second and read over the inspiring story of a Duke fan who couldn’t pull against Pennsylvania yesterday because the school saved his life after his liver failed.

After a week that featured only a single game, this weekend worked out pretty well for the ACC. Of the nine games played over the course of the weekend, all but one of them was a victory. The exception? North Carolina State‘s loss against top-ranked Syracuse. While Syracuse pulled away at the end of the game, the Wolfpack still managed to hang for most of the game, showing some real moxie in their biggest game to date.  Now, however, most teams enter into one of the odder stages of the college basketball schedule: the soft end of the non-conference schedule. While some teams still have a few tough tune-ups leading up to conference play, this stretch of games features some of the most lopsided games these teams will see all season. Still, there’s something to be said for blowouts: most folks who make predictive basketball models find big wins against inferior opponents to be more informative in terms of a team’s future performance than a close win against a roughly equal foe. Seeing who takes care of business and who stumbles could provide some critical insight into the  future fortunes of these teams.

Gottfried's Team Played #1 Syracuse Tough, But Couldn't Hang for 40 Minutes

If I Had To Pick One

• North Florida at Virginia Tech at 7:00 PM on ESPN3.com

Let me be frank, none of these matchups tonight should be very competitive, but if I had to pick one of these games to watch for an upset, it would be this one. North Florida is one of the most battle-tested teams in the country, having already played Alabama, Florida, Miami, Ohio State, and Kansas State. All of these games were losses, but North Florida managed to take Kansas State to overtime, and they are not going to be fazed or starstruck playing the Hokies. They will come in prepared and ready to challenge. Virginia Tech is dominant in every possible comparison or matchup between the two teams, but UNF’s ability to play capable defense and their experience against big-time competition gives them an outside shot at upsetting the potentially rusty Hokies, who haven’t played against a tough opponent since December 4.

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He’s not in the ACC anymore, but Frank Haith is making a name for himself at Missouri. He certainly walked into a roster loaded with talent, but the players are thriving under his system. Vahe Gregorian of StlToday.com has a terrific profile of Haith’s seamless transition to the Big 12 as well as a look back at his past. It’s worth a read.

1. Tar Heel Fan Blog: John Feinstein has a new book, One on One, which hit the shelves in time to pick it up for the holidays. The book was originally supposed to be a biography of Dean Smith, but Smith’s declining health forced Feinstein to change topics. The book is a collection of anecdotes from his years covering sports. Tar Heel Fan Blog posted a great anecdote about Feinstein’s interview with the legendary North Carolina coach. “You should never be proud of doing the right thing,” [Smith] said. “You should just do it.”
2. Raleigh News & Observer: Rodney Purvis is focusing on more than basketball. He is also trying to be a strong student despite his learning disability. Being an elite athlete is like a full-time job, but Purvis’ mother claims they spend just as much, if not more, time working on academics. In addition to raising his SAT scores, this preparation should prove invaluable for Purvis once he gets to NC State.
3. Wilmington Star News: Speaking of Christmas gifts for ACC fans, Brett Friedlander suggests Bethany Bradsher’s The Classic: How Everett Case and His Tournament Brought Big-Time Basketball to the South, which “chronicles the 12-year history of the late, great Dixie Classic. It’s a well-written, painstakingly researched account of a time during which basketball became an obsession in North Carolina, and an event whose importance went far beyond the games on the court.”
4. Roanoke Times: Virginia Tech has a lot of young talent like Erick Green and Dorian Finney-Smith, but if the Hokies are going to reach their potential, they need seniors like Dorenzo Hudson and Victor Davila to step up. Against Campbell, both of the seniors–at least temporarily–snapped their slumps. Both led the team with 15 points. That’s the kind of production Seth Greenberg needs (and truthfully, maybe even more from Hudson) going forward from his leaders.
5. Aiken Standard: Four Clemson freshmen got major playing time in the Tigers’ win over Winthrop. KJ McDaniels, Bernard Sullivan, TJ Sapp, and Rod Hall all saw major playing time in the 20-point victory. Brad Brownell claimed the increased playing time was a combination of improvement and trying to get some more experience for the freshmen. The experience probably won’t pay off much this year, but next year Brownell will need the young guys to step into the shoes of Andre Young and Tanner Smith, the team’s top scorers so far this season.

EXTRA: Syracuse‘s game against NC State was a reminder of two things. One, the Orange are really good and deserving of that #1 ranking (though I personally think they’re the fourth-best team in the country). Two, it was a reminder of the Bernie Fine scandal and the shadows surrounding college athletics. But the team hasn’t let the alleged crimes distract it. Mark Gottfried was impressed enough to think the Orange could make it to Louisiana this year.