Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

PRESEASON vs. ACTUAL RESULTS

As you can see from the preseason predictions I made on the Missouri Valley conference back in October versus how things ended up, the MVC turned out to be difficult to predict this year as none of the teams performed as expected other than Northern Iowa and Wichita State.

I originally was not sold on the Panthers, but as the season wore on, I could see the cohesiveness and all the little things this group of players do to win games.  Even with the suspension of Jordan Eglseder in three of the final four games, they were able to rally for the most part and continue their dominance in the Valley.  Wichita State may have surprised some, but the Shockers appear to be back in the Valley picture after a few year absence from relevance.  The work Gregg Marshall has done to build this team back up from scratch has paid off.  The question now is whether it is enough to get to an NCAA Tournament postseason.

HELLO SAINT LOUIS

The Missouri Valley Conference tournament will take place this coming week at the Scottrade Center in downtown Saint Louis.  Rush the Court will be live in St. Louis this week to keep you updated on the things going on at Arch Madness.  Here is how the bracket shapes up:

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Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Current Records and my standings (Conference Standings) (Last Week):

1. Northern Iowa  16-1  (7-0) (1)
2. Wichita State 14-3 (5-2) (2)
3. Illinois State  13-5 (4-3) (4)
4. Creighton  9-9 (4-3)  (8)
5. Missouri State  13-5 (3-4) (3)
6. Bradley  8-9 (3-4) (6)
7. Indiana State  11-7 (3-4) (5)
8. Drake  8-11 (3-4)  (9)
9. Southern Illinois   10-6 (3-4) (7)
10. Evansville 6-10 (0-7) (10)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Big Game Week—Have your TVs tuned to ESPNU on Tuesday night as the top two teams in the conference have their first matchup of the season.  Northern Iowa  tries to take another road game in conference play, having already won at some of the toughest places in the conference—Southern Illinois, Creighton and Illinois State.  They will try to conquer probably the loudest and rowdiest crowd at Wichita State.    On the other side of the coin, Creighton and Illinois State who are tied right now for third in the conference will also be playing each other on Tuesday night.  If Northern Iowa wins Tuesday night, it looks like things will be coming down to a fight for second place in the conference, as UNI could run away with the Valley — and we are not yet into February.

Missouri State starting to slide—The Bears were the talk of the conference coming into conference season, but Cuonzo Martin probably wishes they weren’t so heralded, since they’re playing like most people expected them to play once conference season started.   They now have lost four out of their last five games and are essentially taking themselves out of the MVC race.

Creighton and Drake surging—The Bulldogs and Bluejays have both had some struggles winning games this season but are now on a roll.  Creighton has won four of their last five games  and Drake has won three straight, with surprising wins over Southern Illinois, Illinois State and Missouri State.

Lets take a look at the MVC at just about the halfway point to see where teams are headed:

TEAMS TO BEAT

Northern Iowa (2-0 this week, 15 game winning streak)—Northern Iowa just keeps winning and have their longest winning streak in school history.   They are the toast of not only the Valley but of the state of Iowa as well.  They aren’t the fastest, the best-shooting, or the most imposing team on the court, but they keep finding ways to win with different players stepping up on different nights.  They survived against Bradley and then decimated Indiana State this week.  Wichita State will be big game for them, but they can survive if they don’t win that one.  That could, however, set up a trap game in the return game against the Sycamores later in the week.

Wichita State (1-1 this week, won 5 of last 6)—Wichita had been flying high until they came into the Qwest Center Saturday to take on Creighton.  After jumping out to an early lead the week before and turning on the cruise control the rest of the way, in the return game it looked like the same thing would happen.  But the Shockers were called for too many fouls, and Creighton hit their charity shots to give Wichita State their first loss in six games and keep a losing streak in Omaha intact since 1992.  They don’t have time to sulk on this one as Northern Iowa comes to town on Tuesday and then WSU hits the road again to Drake.  Toure Murry is on his way to being one of the elite Shocker players if he continues his play.

ON THE RUN

Creighton  (2-0 this week, won four of last five)—Considering the way that Creighton played in their two games  this week, you wish they could have played like this since the beginning of the season.  First was a dramatic last second shot by Antoine Young to get the victory against Southern Illinois earlier in the week, and then they had to shrug off a really bad shooting night to hit 22-of-30 free throws and survive the final seconds to edge out a one point victory against Wichita State.  Creighton received a late Christmas gift as Rutgers big man Greg Echenique decided to transfer to the Bluejays and will be eligible in December.  He cannot wait to get started. This week doesn’t get any easier for the Bluejays as they travel to Illinois State before returning home to host Missouri State.

Drake (2-0 this week, three game winning streak)—This feels weird putting Drake up in this spot, but they are two seconds away from a four-game winning streak and the Bulldogs are now playing their best basketball of the season with victories over Missouri State and Illinois State.  The big reason is coach Mark Phelps decision to give his senior players more minutes on the court.  Drake is setting themselves up for a victory over Evansville this week, and could surprise Wichita State, especially if they lose against Northern Iowa earlier in the week.  Fear the Drake.

HEADING DOWN THE WRONG PATH

Illinois State  (1-1 this week, two of four conference wins against Evansville)—Don’t be fooled by the Redbirds at this point in the conference season.  If Osiris Eldridge is not putting up his normal points, this team may not be able to have other people step up all the time like they did against Evansville , but if he does, then no one else gets involved and they are having problems winning games, like against Drake Sunday night.   The easy wins are gone with their series against Evansville completed.  Creighton comes to town this week and then they head to Carbondale to take on Southern Illinois.  Illinois State could be headed for a freefall if they aren’t careful.

Bradley (1-1 this week, 3-7 in their last 10)—Bradley is the most inconsistent team in the conference to this point in the season.  The PJ Star outlines this pretty well.  They have a lot of problems winning on the road as they are 1-3 on the road so far in conference play.  They just missed a big win against Northern Iowa, losing by a deuce.  They may go 1-1 again this week when they go to Southern Illinois and then host Evansville.

Indiana State (0-2 this week, lost threfo of last four)—Just as I was about to jump aboard the Indiana State bandwagon, the Sycamores lost out on a great opportunity to put themselves in a great position in conference play.  The losses to conference leaders Wichita State and Northern Iowa is a big blow.  Instead of getting ahead of others in trying to get to the top of the MVC, they are now in a six-team race to not have to play one of the dreaded Thursday night play-in games of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament.  Harry Marshall has stepped up his game, and now we will have to see if the rest of the team steps up as well.    They have an opportunity to redeem themselves on the road against Missouri State and when they host Northern Iowa in the return game.

Missouri State (0-2 this week, lost four of last five)—Missouri State is well on its way to a freefall, unable to win games on the road.  Like Bradley, the Bears are 1-3 on the road in conference play. But they were able to go 3-1 on the road in non-conference play.  That is the difference between non-conference and conference play; it is a lot harder to win on the road against teams in your own league.   The first half has been the key for the Bears as they keep “laying eggs.”  They are in a lot of trouble if they lose both games against Indiana State and Creighton this week.

Southern Illinois (1-1 this week, lost four of last five)—The Salukis are pretty lucky they didn’t lose at Evansville Saturday night.  With rumors of head coach Chris Lowery headed to Depaul at the end of the season and Lowery seemingly losing his players during a four game losing streak, they were still able to salvage a win against Evansvile.  Against Creighton on Wednesday night, Nick Evans got into a little altercation with Creighton’s Chad Millard which led to Evans’ ejection.  He was also out for the Evansville game because of that.  It is important for SIU to beat Illinois State and Bradley at home this week if they expect to return to the postseason.  Otherwise they are headed for their second consecutive losing season.

Evansville (0-2 this week, eight game losing streak)—Evansville can only play spoiler mode at this point in the season, though their seven point loss to Southern Illinois was the closest they have come to winning a conference game.   Colt Ryan is the best thing going for the Purple Aces right now — oh, and how they conduct themselves.  Can they get their first conference win against Drake or Bradley this week?

WEEK AHEAD AND GAMES TO WATCH

This week, the Valley’s two top teams finally meet up, and there are several other intriguing matchups this week.

• 1/19, Northern Iowa @ Wichita State (ESPNU)—Easily the game of the week as the matchup of the two top teams of the conference takes place.
• 1/19, Indiana State @ Missouri State (Fox Sports Net)—Who will step up to the plate to turn things around for either team?
• 1/20, Bradley @ Southern Illinois (Local TV)–Both teams need a win badly to stay in contention.
• 1/20, Creighton @ Illinois State (Local TV)—Although Creighton has been struggling this season as a whole, they are right in the conference race and can score a key win against Osiris Eldridge and the Redbirds.  Eldridge tears Creighton apart every time he plays them.
• 1/23, Wichita State @ Drake (ESPNU)—Drake hopes to continue their surge while Wichita State tries to stay at the top. Things will be turned upside down in the Valley if Drake wins this one.
• 1/24, Missouri State @ Creighton (Local TV)—Two teams headed in the opposite direction.  Can the Bears steal one in Omaha or is their early season start going to become irrelevant?
• 1/24, Northern Iowa @ Indiana State (Fox Sports Net)—The Sycamores need this win, and could give Northern Iowa their first conference loss — if UNI is still undefeated in conference play at that time.

Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

MY STANDINGS (current records)

1. Missouri State  (4-0)
2. Wichita State (2-0)
3. Illinois State (2-0)
4. Indiana State (2-1)
5. Southern Illinois (2-1)
6. Creighton  (2-1)
7. Bradley  (2-1)
8. Northern Iowa  (2-1)
9. Evansville (2-1)
10. Drake  (1-4)

STORIES OF THE WEEK

Injuries, Illness and Suspensions—The Valley has started out with several injuries, illnesses and suspensions this season, causing some teams to play without some veteran leaders including:

• Bradley lost Dodie Dunson for the season with a broken arm suffered in their game against Idaho State while Taylor Brown is serving a suspension for  an offseason battery charge.  Brown was the team’s leading scorer during the Labor Day trip to Brazil. 
• Creighton lost Justin Carter to an MCL tear for 2-4 weeks, Casey Harriman was hospitalized with swine flu that turned to tonsillitis that turned to strep throat that turned into mononucleosis, while Chad Millard has been out with a foot injury since September.
• Drake was without Josh Young due to a hip pointer injury.
• Wichita St. was without Clevin Hannah for the first three games (including the upcoming CBE Classic game against Pittsburgh) due to a “paperwork” error on his amateur status. 

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Patrick Marshall of White and Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Creighton (24-6, 14-4)
2. Northern Iowa (23-6, 13-5)
3. Wichita St. (23-8, 12-6)
4. Southern Illinois (21-8, 12-6)
5. Illinois St. (23-7, 11-7)
6. Bradley (19-10, 10-8)
7. Indiana St. (17-13, 8-10)
8. Drake (13-18, 5-13)
9. Evansville (10-19, 3-15)
10. Missouri St. (9-21, 2-16) 

All-Conference Team.  This is a guard laden league which will populate the Missouri Valley All-Conference team this season.

• Kevin Dillard (G), So., Southern Illinois ( 12.2 pts., 4.2 ast.)—The bright spot for Southern Illinois last season is a tenacious ball handler and defender.
• Clevin Hannah (G), Sr., Wichita St. (11.2 pts. 4.3 ast.)—Hannah comes in as the leader for the Shockers which will make some noise this season.
• Osiris Eldridge (G), Sr., Illinois St. (14 pts, 6 reb.)–Last season he had Champ Oguchi as a security blanket and kept him from trying to take over the game himself.  His all around game development will probably garner him Conference Player of the Year honors.    
• Justin Carter (G), Sr., Creighton  (8.1 pts, 5.5 reb.)—Over the summer, Carter has emerged as the leader of the Bluejays.
• Adam Koch (F), Sr., Northern Iowa (12.1 pts., 5.1 reb.)—Koch was a solid player last season to help lead the Panthers to the conference championship and will get the opportunity again as the team returns pretty much everyone.

6th Man.  Jake Kelly (G), Jr., Indiana St. (Transfer from Iowa)—Jake got a surprise this fall as the NCAA allowed him to be an active player on the Sycamore team instead of having to sit out a year like transfers usually must.  Due to the death of his mother, Kelly returned home to Indiana last season and announced he was transferring to Indiana St.  Getting immediate eligibility will solidify the backcourt for the Sycamores.

Impact Newcomer.  Wayne Runnels (F), Jr., Creighton—Wayne was an all around sports star in high school and could have probably played any sport he wanted to.  He decided on basketball.  The JC transfer will make an immediate impact for the Bluejays. 

What You Need to Know.  For several years, the Missouri Valley Conference was a multiple bid conference for the NCAA Tournament, but the runs by Wichita St. and Bradley to the Sweet 16 in 2006 seem like a distant memory.  The past two seasons, the MVC has only managed to get their one automatic bid into The Dance.  Drake went in 2008 and Northern Iowa went last season.  Both teams won the regular season title and conference tournament.   Although Creighton shared the regular season championship with the Panthers last season, the Bluejays were on the outside looking in for the 2^nd straight year while Southern Illinois had their first losing season in 10 years.  Considering the unexpected the last two seasons, things may be returning back to the norm this winter.  Casual fans of the conference may see familiar names at the top this season as Creighton, Southern Illinois and Wichita St. will be in the mix, while last season’s champion  Northern Iowa returns almost everyone to a team that surprised everyone by the time conference play rolled around.   Illinois State has risen toward the top the past couple of seasons and although they again have Player of the Year candidate Osiris Eldridge in the lineup, the supporting cast may not be enough this season to keep them there. 

Predicted Champion.  Creighton Bluejays (NCAA Seed:  #9)—There are so many teams that believe they will be the best this season, but Creighton will slip to the top.  Creighton worked it’s way back up to the top of the league down the stretch last season winning 11 of the last 12 regular season games before getting embarrassed by Illinois St. in the MVC Conference Tournament semifinals.   Yes, Creighton lost MVC POY Booker Woodfox.  Yes, Creighton lost four year starting PG Josh Dotzler.  Yes, emerging big man Kenton Walker transferred.  Those are definitely big holes to fill.  But the returning core includes senior Justin Carter who was a JUCO transfer a year ago and by the second half of the season became comfortable and dominated the boards.  He has appeared to take a leadership role over the summer.  P’Allen Stinnett is fun to watch and it will be important to see if he has matured enough to also be a leader.   Antoine Young emerged as the guy to lead the point for the Bluejays, but watch out for Andrew Bock to settle in as the Dotzler type of point guard Coach Dana Altman is used to and  to utilize Young’s skills in his ability to drive to the basket at the off guard spot.  The question mark is the inside game where Kenny Lawson is the only real veteran returning to the post position.  Chad Millard is a little out of position in the post, but is the next  tallest player on the team.  Wayne Runnels comes in from the JUCO ranks and is expected to make an impact right away to help a team that ranked last in the Valley last season in rebound margin.  A couple other players on the roster are expected to step up on a team that likes to rotate players constantly leaving the opening for others to make plays.  Creighton also has the potential to have the best non-conference schedule in the league which will give them a little more wiggle room whether they win the conference or not.

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Patrick Marshall of Bluejay Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Big 12 and Missouri Valley Conferences.

Current Records and my standings  (Conference Record)(Last Week Rank)

1.    Northern Iowa (12-6) (6-1)(1)
2.    Illinois St. (16-2) (5-2)(3)
3.    Drake (13-6) (4-3) (2)
4.    Bradley (11-7) (5-2) (5)
5.    Creighton (14-5)(4-3) (4)
6.    Evansville (12-5) (4-3) (6)
7.    Southern Illinois (8-10) (3-4) (7)
8.    Missouri St. (8-10) (1-6) (9)
9.    Wichita St. (7-11) (1-6)  (10)
10.    Indiana St. (4-14) (2-5) (8)

So many things have happened this week and the Valley power has shifted this week.  Thus life in the Missouri Valley Conference.

GAME OF THE WEEK:

Creighton 73, Southern Illinois 72 (OT)—Creighton was able to pull a rabbit out of their hat not only once but twice in this game.  They were down 3 towards the end of regulation when Cavel Witter was fouled on a three point shot and made all three to tie and send it to overtime.  Then in overtime, Creighton was down 4 with under a minute to play and a quick steal and a 3-pointer by P’Allen Stinnett and then a huge three by a limping Booker Woodfox and two free throws at the end by Kenton Walker, let the Bluejays escape against Southern Illinois.  This rivalry was as advertised.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK:

Champ Oguchi, Illinois St.—Champ had a great week and was a huge key to the win against Drake this week 65-61.  His 29 points, 8 rebounds and 4 steals were the things the Redbirds needed to break a 2-game losing streak from the week before and to get them back into the Valley race.

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