1. In the wake of Selection Sunday, the biggest news in the Pac-12 may be not who made the NCAA Tournament, but who was left out. For the first time since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams, the regular season champion of a power conference was left behind as Washington failed to hear its name called on Sunday afternoon. While Lorenzo Romar was not surprised by the Huskies’ omission, his team was disappointed. Their season goes on, however, as they’ll host Texas-Arlington in the first round of the NIT tomorrow.
2. Arizona also missed the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in 27 years, and they’re left pondering the “what-ifs” of a season gone awry. Beginning with their ineffective final possession of the Pac-12 Tournament that ended in an erratic Kyle Fogg three and going back through numerous other twists and turns throughout the season, the Wildcats feel like they left some money on the table. The loss in the final regular season game to Arizona State stands out as a killer, but if they had held on to a seven-point lead against Florida, perhaps that’s the big win that puts UA over the top. Or maybe if Josiah Turner had made better personal decisions through the year, he’s able to help the Wildcats come through in the Pac-12 Tournament. In the end, there’s still plenty of hope in Tucson, as Sean Miller welcomes in the nation’s top recruiting class next year.
3. The common theme among Pac-12 coaches is that the conference schools earned the treatment they received by the Selection Committee. California head coach Mike Montgomery is one of two coaches who received good news on Sunday, but even though the Golden Bears are in the NCAA Tournament, they’ve got to knock off South Florida on Wednesday in order to advance to the traditional bracket. And while Montgomery would have liked to see Washington in the Tournament, he knows the lesson that the Pac-12 needs to take from Sunday: Win more (and better) games in November and December.
4. For some around the conference, the season is over and so the offseason begins. UCLA was skipped over by the NIT, so its season is done, meaning we’ll find out the answer to one of the bigger potential questions around the league shortly: Will head coach Ben Howland return? While there are many Bruin fans who are hoping for a change, it appears unlikely that Howland’s job is in any serious immediate jeopardy. Aside from the fact that he’s got a couple good recruits coming in (Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams) and another couple on the line (Shabazz Muhammad and Tony Parker), he’s also got a big buyout clause in his contract, meaning UCLA would have to come up with $3 million or more in order to get rid of him. Translation: He’s safe for now, but would do well to return to the NCAA Tournament next season.
5. One other offseason transaction hit the news on Friday when it was announced that Arizona State sharpshooter Chanse Creekmur would be leaving the school in order to play football elsewhere. Creekmur started 13 games for the Sun Devils in 2011-12, averaging 4.7 points and 2.3 rebounds, but would likely see his minutes cut next year with Jahii Carson, Evan Gordon and Bo Barnes joining the program next season and all demanding minutes. Creekmur played quarterback in high school and is hoping to transfer to a smaller school closer to home. He becomes the tenth scholarship player to leave Herb Sendek’s program early in the last four years.

Throughout Monday, we will roll out our region-by-region analysis on the following schedule: East (9 AM), South (11 AM), Midwest (2 PM), West (4 PM). Here, Kevin Doyle breaks down the South Region from top to bottom. Also, be sure to follow our RTC South Region handle on Twitter for continuous updates the next two weeks (@RTCsouthregion).

You can also check out our RTC Podblast with Kevin breaking down the South Region here.

South Region

Favorite: #1 Kentucky (32-2, 16-0 SEC). Shouldn’t really need much of an explanation here. The most talented team in the nation — unquestionably — the Wildcats will be the odds-on favorite to not just emerge from the South Region, but also to cut down the nets in New Orleans. Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones spearhead a terrifyingly good starting five.

The Length And Athleticism Of Terrence Jones and Kentucky Are Just One Of Many Issues That Teams Face

Should They Falter: #2 Duke (27-6, 13-3 ACC). Austin Rivers does not play like a typical freshman and while Duke has its flaws on defense (perimeter defense, especially), the Blue Devils are more apt to make a run to the Final Four due to their balance on offense. Rivers and Seth Curry are prolific shooters/scorers in the backcourt, while the Plumlee brothers make for a formidable frontcourt. Much of Duke’s success hinges on junior Ryan Kelly’s health (sprained ankle). Kelly, while not a lockdown defender by any means, is 6’11″ and really helps in defending the three-point line for Duke. Even without a healthy Kelly, Duke still has an easier road to the Sweet Sixteen than other contenders in the South Region.

Grossly Overseeded: #11 Colorado (23-11, 11-7 Pac-12). Clearly, the committee thought higher of the Pac-12 than many others did. First, there was much debate whether this power six conference — far from “powerful” this season — would even receive an at-large bid, but they did in California. Secondly, Colorado was not on anybody’s radar prior to the Pac-12 Tournament as it stood at 19-11 with seven losses in conference play. Yet, winning the conference tournament propelled Colorado to a very respectable seed at #11. Many prognosticators had the Buffaloes at a #13 seed going into Selection Sunday.

Grossly Underseeded: #14 South Dakota State (27-7, 15-3 Summit). It is too big of a stretch to say that South Dakota State is “grossly” underseeded, but I do believe they were worthy of a #13 seed. When comparing the Jackrabbits to the #13 seed in this region, their resume is every bit as good, if not better, than New Mexico State: SDSU has a better overall record, higher RPI, more wins against the Top 100 RPI, and a more challenging non-conference schedule. Not to mention South Dakota State’s thrashing of Washington 92-73, even though the Huskies are not a Tournament team, is very impressive.

Read the rest of this entry »

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Friday’s semifinal round at the Pac-12 Tournament.

• Too much Arizona defense for Oregon State – Arizona led the Pac-12 this season in eFG% defense. By the second half of its game against Oregon State in the Pac-12 semifinal, it became apparent that its defense was wearing the Beavers out. OSU shot 27.3% in the second half and looked to be out of gas after a third game in three nights. If Angelo Chol can continue to provide an inside defensive presence like he did in this game and the Arizona perimeter defense performs as it has all season, Sean Miller’s team is going to be difficult to beat in the finals.
• Craig Robinson is committed  – The best part of the Pac-12 Tournament thus far is listening to the coaches talk about their players after the game. After hearing Oregon State coach Craig Robinson talk in the postgame press conference, there is no reason to believe that OSU will not continue to improve next season. Robinson is completely dedicated and totally passionate about Oregon State basketball. In a game where coaches’ egos can become bigger than their teams, Robinson is clearly all about his players. Keep an eye out for the Beavers to push the rest of the Pac-12 next season with almost its entire team coming back.

Colorado fans have helped the Buffs reach the finals

• Colorado Athletic Director Mike Bohn rocks – He paid the way for 50 Colorado student season ticket holders to come to the Pac-12 Tourney and cheer on the Buffs. In an event that is lacking significantly in fan energy, the Colorado fans have been able to provide some much needed energy to an almost empty building. It would have been fantastic to see the other ADs do the same thing — perhaps then maybe the event wouldn’t be moving to Las Vegas next year.
• Austin Dufault has skills – The 6’9″ senior showed all kinds of skills against a decent Cal front line Friday night. He can handle the ball and has excellent post moves. He could be the X-factor tomorrow against an Arizona interior that played well against Oregon State. It’ll be interesting to see how he does against a shot blocker like Chol.

Way back at the end of January or so, I started wrestling with a decision of great importance in the life of a basketball junkie: where to go in March. As the correspondent for both the Pac-12 and the Mountain West for Rush The Court, the two main options seemed pretty clear. And, under normal circumstances, the fact that I live in Los Angeles, maybe 20 minutes away (depending on traffic) from the Staples Center, where the Pac-12 Tournament was to be held, would seem to make that the obvious choice. I could take in all the hoops I wanted and still sleep in my own bed at night and walk my dog in the morning. The Mountain West Tourney would involve a four-hour or so drive, sleeping in a crappy hotel bed, eating junk, and, well, missing my dog (oh, and my wife – yeah, missing my wife too). Well, I’m writing this from courtside at the Thomas & Mack Center on Friday evening, about an hour in advance of watching what should be two great semifinals at the Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas, so you know the decision I made. The question is, why?

The easy answer to that question is: “the Pac-12 sucks,” a sentiment you have probably read a couple hundred times so far this year. And, while there is certainly something to that (certainly the tournament resumes of those teams do, indeed, “suck”), I could be plenty happy watching the top eight or nine teams in the Pac-12. Teams like Oregon State, Washington, Arizona, Oregon – those are quality teams, and fun to watch. Stanford, California, Washington State even – I have nothing against those teams. But one thing that did factor into my decision was the bottom of that conference. Having to spend any time in the presence of teams like USC, Utah, and to a slightly lesser extent, Arizona State, just seemed like a terrible idea. Meanwhile, at the bottom of the Mountain West, teams like Boise State and Air Force, while certainly not great teams, are probably in the conversation for the best last place teams in the country. And better yet, both the Broncos and the Falcons are largely young teams, in the bottom half of Division I in terms of experience, with players who have some upside. Even in those opening round games between top and bottom seeds, Boise State and Air Force provided bigger challenges than the toothless teams at the bottom of the Pac-12, as the Broncos, for one, proved in a big way on Thursday. Further, the prospects of the semifinal games we’re counting down to right now – some combination of Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, and UNLV – had me intrigued months ago.

Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Update: Friday, March 9, 11:59 PM ET.

Changes:

• Kentucky clinches the #1 overall seed following Syracuse’s loss to Cincinnati. The Orange only drop one spot to #2 overall on the S-Curve and will still be headed to the Boston region. Kansas drops behind North Carolina on the S-Curve following their loss to Baylor and could drop behind Duke or Michigan State depending on the results of their respective conference tournaments.
• Baylor had one glaring void on their resume: the lack of an RPI top-25 win. That’s no longer the case following their breakthrough win on Friday over Kansas. The Bears still may have trouble jumping up to a #2 seed even if they emerge victorious in the Big 12 Tournament championship because of two previous losses to Missouri and Ohio State’s run in the Big Ten Tournament.
• Cincinnati jumps to a #6 seed following their win over Syracuse. The Bearcats have a host of quality wins: Syracuse, Marquette, at Georgetown, Louisville, at Connecticut, Notre Dame. They’re also anchored by a horrid RPI/SOS and non-conference SOS. Where they’ll be seeding is really difficult to pin down.
• Xavier remains in the field after edging Dayton in the A-10 Tournament. That result also eliminates the Flyers from at-large consideration.
• Marshall jumps into First Four Out territory but tomorrow is still a win-and-in, lose-and-out scenario.
• Miami barely stays in the field despite their loss to Florida State and only three top-100 wins. The Canes are carried by their huge victory at Duke and a home triumph over FSU. Their RPI/SOS is also superior to Seton Hall, whose best wins all came at home against Georgetown, Connecticut and West Virginia, plus a neutral win over VCU. Also a determining factor: the Pirates lost to Villanova, Rutgers (home) and at DePaul in blowout fashion in Big East play. This could change if Durand Scott’s availability is still up in the air into Selection Sunday.

• Last Four In: Miami (FL), Drexel, NC State, Mississippi State.
  
• First Four Out: Seton Hall, Washington, Marshall, Northwestern.
  

3/9 S-Curve

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Kansas

2 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Baylor, Marquette, Michigan, Wisconsin

4 Seeds: Georgetown, Indiana, Florida State, Louisville

5 Seeds: Wichita State, Murray State, UNLV, Temple

6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Florida, Notre Dame

7 Seeds: Creighton, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Gonzaga

8 Seeds: Memphis,  New Mexico, Iowa State, Kansas State

9 Seeds: Purdue, Saint Louis, Connecticut, Alabama

10 Seeds: Harvard, West Virginia, Southern Miss, California

11 Seeds: Colorado State, Virginia, BYU, VCU

12 Seeds: Texas, Long Beach State, South Florida, Xavier, Mississippi State

13 Seeds: NC State, Drexel, Miami (FL), Nevada, Akron

14 Seeds: Davidson, South Dakota State, Belmont, Montana

15 Seeds: Loyola (MD), Detroit, Lehigh, LIU-Brooklyn

16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, Norfolk State, Lamar, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Saint Louis, North Carolina, Belmont, Missouri, Cincinnati, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, VCU, Memphis, Detroit, Harvard, Loyola (MD), Akron, Norfolk State, Creighton, San Diego State, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, California, Lehigh, Kentucky, Davidson, Lamar, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Saint Mary’s, Nevada.

Bids per conference: Big East (9), Big 12 (6), ACC (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), West Coast (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Colonial (2).

The first two games of the Pac-12 reminded us of why we love this time of year. Four extremely talented teams were playing their hearts out for different things. Washington needed to avoid a bad loss to clinch an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament; Oregon State needed a win to get onto the NIT bubble; Arizona needed a win to keep alive its NCAA Tournament hopes; and UCLA needed a win to stay in the NIT field. Here are four things that stood out in the first two quarterfinal games.

March Madness in full swing as (from left to right) Challe Barton, Rhys Murphy, Kevin McShane, and Angus Brandt celebrate Oregon State's 86-84 win over Washington. (credit: Jae Hong)

1. Oregon State’s resiliency (part two) — We mentioned yesterday how resilient Oregon State was when it could have just rolled over after giving up a 16-point lead against Washington State. Today was almost an exact replica of yesterday’s game (except played better). Oregon State led by as many as 15 before Washington went on a 33-10 run to lead 66-58 with 8:50 remaining. The Huskies were hitting everything they threw up, Oregon State was turning the ball over, and the pro-Washington crowd was on their feet. Once again, it looked as if the Beavers were ready to call it a season. Instead, Oregon State was able to force some turnovers and began knocking down their shots. Before you knew it, Jared Cunningham put home a layup to put the Beavers ahead 84-83 with 30 seconds to play. Over the next half-minute, both teams would miss a combined 10 free throws. But when it was all said and done, it was Oregon State dancing off the court with an 86-84 victory. Read the rest of this entry »

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Update: Friday, March 9, 8:29 AM ET.

Changes:

• Mississippi State sustained their second loss of the season to Georgia Thursday at the SEC Tournament. Combine that with losses to Auburn, Arkansas, LSU and Ole Miss, a #66 RPI, #66 SOS and #191 non-conference SOS and all of a sudden the floundering Bulldogs are dangerously close to missing the NCAA Tournament, a crime given their talent level. The only thing saving them at this point is bubble teams Seton Hall, Washington and Northwestern all sustaining crucial losses today. State remains in the projected field at 21-1 (8-9) with wins at Vanderbilt, vs. Purdue and vs. West Virginia.
• South Florida remains in the field despite their loss to Notre Dame. In fact, the Bulls aren’t even in the last four in. They should breathe easy with 13 Big East wins, including at Louisville (which looks stronger after today), vs. Cincinnati and vs. Seton Hall. Notre Dame jumps up a few spots with yet another Big East top-50 win on the S-Curve and could climb even further with a victory Friday night.
• Texas’ huge win over Iowa State combined with other bubble losses all but locks up a spot in the field despite only four wins against the RPI top-100. The Longhorns have now beaten Iowa State twice, Kansas State and Temple with decent computer numbers (#52 RPI, #21 SOS, #98 non-conference SOS).
• Lamar out of the Southland replaces UT-Arlington as a #16 seed with LIU-Brooklyn hoping up a seed line.
• Oregon is now eliminated from bubble contention with their Pac-12 Tournament loss to Colorado. Cal is the only team still alive in that tournament currently projected in the field, so the odds of a bid stealer are considerable if Cal makes the finals and appears in good shape for an at-large.

• Last Four In: Seton Hall, Drexel, Miami (FL), Mississippi State.
  
• First Four Out: Washington, Tennessee, Northwestern, NC State.
  
• Next Four Out: Dayton, Oral Roberts, St. Joseph’s, Iona.
  

3/9 S-Curve

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina

2 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Louisville

5 Seeds: Temple, Wichita State, Murray State, UNLV

6 Seeds: Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Florida, Creighton

7 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Gonzaga, New Mexico

8 Seeds: Iowa State, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Memphis

9 Seeds: Purdue, Saint Louis, Connecticut, Alabama

10 Seeds: Virginia, Southern Miss, Harvard, West Virginia

11 Seeds: Colorado State, California, BYU, VCU

12 Seeds: Texas, Long Beach State, South Florida, Xavier, Mississippi State

13 Seeds: Miami (FL), Drexel, Seton Hall, Nevada, Davidson

14 Seeds: South Dakota State, Akron, Belmont, Montana

15 Seeds: Loyola (MD), Detroit, Lehigh, LIU-Brooklyn

16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, Norfolk State, Lamar, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, North Carolina, Belmont, Kansas, Syracuse, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, VCU, Memphis, Detroit, Harvard, Loyola (MD), Akron, Norfolk State, Creighton, San Diego State, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, Washington, Lehigh, Kentucky, Davidson, Lamar, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Saint Mary’s, Nevada.

Bids per conference: Big East (10), Big 12 (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (5), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), West Coast (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Colonial (2).

To earn a spot in the field:

• Southern Miss- Reach the Conference USA Tournament semifinals by beating Marshall
• Virginia- Beat NC State in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals
• Colorado State- Beat San Diego State in the Mountain West Tournament semifinals
• California- Beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals (semifinal game vs. Colorado would not clinch bid)
• Miami- Beat Florida State in the quarterfinal and Duke in the semifinal (semifinal win vs. Virginia Tech would not clinch bid)
• Long Beach State- Reach the Big West Tournament final
• Xavier- Beat Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Tournament final then Saint Louis in the semifinal (semifinal game vs. La Salle/Richmond would not clinch bid)
• Tennessee- Beat Vanderbilt in the semifinals
• Dayton– Reach the Atlantic 10 Tournament final by beating Xavier and Saint Louis
• NC State– Reach the ACC Tournament finals by beating Virginia and then Florida State/Miami

Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.

Last Update: Wednesday, March 7, 5:49 PM ET.

Changes:

• Connecticut jumps to the #9 seed line following their Big East Tournament win over West Virginia. The Huskies boast six RPI top-50 wins including a sweep of the Mountaineers, a true road win at Notre Dame and a neutral court victory over Harvard. UConn is safely in the field and they face Syracuse on Thursday in a game where they have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
• West Virginia is now a horribly mediocre 19-14 overall and 9-10 in Big East play. During most other seasons that would punch their ticket to the NIT, but due to the soft bubble, Pac-12 struggles and lack of bid stealers thus far, Bob Huggins’ team is still projected to make the tournament by a decent margin. At the moment they sit as the final #10 seed on the S-Curve but will likely drop as teams below them have opportunities to gather quality wins during the week. Despite the shoddy record, WVU does boast a #45 RPI, #16 SOS and has beaten projected NCAA teams Georgetown, Kansas State, Miami, Cincinnati, USF and Akron, while UConn isn’t considered a “bad” loss.

• Last Four In: Northwestern, Xavier, Texas, South Florida.
  
• First Four Out: Seton Hall, Drexel, Tennessee, Oregon.
  
• Next Four Out: Dayton, NC State, Oral Roberts, St. Joseph’s.            

3/7 S-Curve

1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina

2 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Missouri, Ohio State

3 Seeds: Marquette, Michigan, Baylor, Georgetown

4 Seeds: Indiana, Wisconsin, Florida State, Temple

5 Seeds: Wichita State, Murray State, UNLV, Louisville

6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Florida, Notre Dame, Creighton

7 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, San Diego State, Gonzaga

8 Seeds: New Mexico, Kansas State, Purdue, Memphis

9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Alabama, Connecticut

10 Seeds: Southern Miss, Virginia, Harvard, West Virginia

11 Seeds: Colorado State, Mississippi State, California, BYU

12 Seeds: VCU, Miami, Washington, South Florida, Long Beach State

13 Seeds: Texas, Xavier, Northwestern, Nevada, Davidson

14 Seeds: South Dakota State, Akron, Belmont, Montana

15 Seeds: Loyola (MD), Bucknell, Detroit, UT-Arlington

16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, LIU-Brooklyn, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Savannah State, Western Kentucky

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, North Carolina, Belmont, Kansas, Syracuse, Montana, UNC-Asheville, Michigan State, Long Beach State, VCU, Memphis, Detroit, Harvard, Loyola (MD), Akron, Savannah State, Creighton, San Diego State, LIU Brooklyn, Murray State, Washington, Bucknell, Kentucky, Davidson, UT-Arlington, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Saint Mary’s, Nevada.

Bids per conference: Big East (9), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), ACC (5), Mountain West (4), Atlantic 10 (3), WCC (3), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2), Pac-12 (2).

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2012 Pac-12 Championship is upon us. Whether you like to watch mediocre basketball or are looking for a possible team to make a run all the way from Los Angeles to the Final Four, here is your guide.

2012 Pac-12 Tournament Schedule – March 7-10 – Los Angeles (All Times Pacific)

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While the Pac-12 may be in a down year, this is going to be one of the most competitive conference tournaments of Championship Week. Any of the top seven seeds are capable of winning it, and with the exception of Washington and California, no team is locked into the NCAA Tournament. Every team outside of the top four will be playing for their NCAA lives, which could make the first day of the tournament surprisingly entertaining. In reality though, only the top seven seeds have a realistic shot at taking the Pac-12’s automatic bid. To make a run through a conference tournament, especially when you need to win four games in four days, you need three or more really solid players. UCLA has Lazeric Jones, Travis and David Wear, and Joshua Smith, Colorado has Carlon Brown, Andre Roberson, Austin Dufault, and Spencer Dinwiddie, and Stanford has Chasson Brown, Josh Owens, and Aaron Bright. Those groups of players can lead their teams through the tournament, but the rest of the field behind them has only one or two solid players they can count on.

Three and four seeds Oregon and Arizona are the two teams that can still play their way into the NCAA Tournament as an at-large. While a lot of things can still shake out around the nation, the Wildcats and Ducks will likely have to advance to the championship in order to have a chance. Arizona’s going to have the tougher road to the championship as they will likely have to face a hot UCLA team in the quarterfinals, and most likely top-seeded Washington in the semis. However, the tougher the game is, the more of an impression the Wildcats will be able to make on the selection committee. And that’s a good thing, considering they need to push their way past teams like NC State, Miami (Florida), and Iona before Sunday.

Tony Wroten May Be Flashier, But Jorge Gutierrez Is The Best Player In The Pac-12 - For Now

Favorite: California.  Their loss last Sunday against Stanford not withstanding, this is a talented and deep Golden Bear team that has the easiest path to a championship out of the top four seeds. They will most likely face the Cardinal again in the quarterfinals, but there is no way they lose to them twice in a row, especially with NCAA Tournament seeeding on the line. I’ll even take them over top-seeded Washington after the Bears went up to Seattle and beat the Huskies back in January.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. On the eve of the kickoff of the Pac-12 Tournament comes news that the conference has reached an agreement to move at least the next two conference tournaments to Las Vegas. No official announcement has been made yet, but it could be official as early as Saturday night. The games would be played at the MGM Grand Arena, making it the fourth different conference tournament to be held in Las Vegas (joining the WCC, MW and WAC). Given declining attendance and a reputation for a less-than-thrilling atmosphere at its current home at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, this could be a welcome boost of adrenaline for a flagging event.
2. Heading into the tournament, we’re still wondering whether the Pac-12 can get two teams, maybe even three, into the NCAA Tournament. Of all the teams, it appears that California is the safest best to get in, with an RPI of #37 and a couple wins over top 50 RPI teams. California Golden Blogs notes that Joe Lunardi says that the Bears can get in even with an opening round loss to Stanford this week, but, of course, if they want to be safe, they get that win and even another one against Oregon (which could, paradoxically, knock the Ducks out of the top 50 in the RPI and knock the Bears back down to 0-3 in that metric) to tighten up their case.
3. At the Autzen Zoo, they’re making a case for three Pac-12 teams worthy of bids, a stance that is not particularly surprising given that the third team would be their beloved Oregon Ducks. They write that “the Pac-12 isn’t as bad as the biased east-coast fans think it is” and I would agree with that – I think that the top four, maybe even as deep as the top six teams are capable Pac-12 squads, even if there is no one great team here. The problem is of course that the tournament resumes of these teams are not good at all. There are no real statement wins against great teams; there are precious few wins against any teams of NCAA Tournament-caliber; and there are poor RPI numbers right on down the line. If there is disappointment around the conference on Selection Sunday, it is deserved.
4. John Gasaway takes the stance that, although this conference is literally the weakest major conference in years, it’s not as bad as some make it out to be. What really drags the overall conference numbers down is the bottom of the conference – teams like USC, Utah and Arizona State that have suffered through horrifically bad seasons. Further, he sees the top five or so teams as consistent with what we’ve seen out of similar teams in the past two years in the conference. The bad news is, the past two years in the conference have been down years for the league as well, albeit not as far down as this season. Still, Gasaway sees promise in California and Washington, as well as UCLA, who he notes has been better on a possession-by-possession basis than the Huskies and right in the same general area as Arizona and Oregon.
5. Lastly, Jeff Faraudo and Jon Wilner try to provide some reasons for the depths to which the Pac-12 has plunged. Among their reasons: 1) the decision to sign a TV contract with Fox instead of ESPN, hurting their national TV exposure and keeping Pac-12 teams off the radar of some recruits; 2) changes in personnel not only on rosters (early NBA entries, outgoing transfers), but on benches (Lute Olson, Tony Bennett, Tim Floyd); 3) UCLA’s well-publicized problems in their program; and 4) the fact that there just haven’t been a ton of elite-level recruits coming out of California in recent years.