Jarell Martin’s college career got off to a disappointing start yesterday, as he sprained his ankle during the first minute of LSU’s 92-90 season-opening loss at Massachusetts. Martin missed his only field goal attempt of the game, and never returned after the injury. Head coach Johnny Jones has yet to give an estimate on how severe the injury is or how long it will keep Martin out, but he did stress that the team will be extremely cautious with its precocious freshman.

Jarell Martin hurt his ankle just one minute into his college career (Scout.com)

In the short term, Martin’s absence was noticeable in the way Jones worked his rotation. The Tigers missed his presence with the team’s early foul trouble, especially when Johnny O’Bryant was forced to stay in the game with two early fouls. He was the only player scoring for the Tigers at the time, but his presence on the floor led to a third first half foul, costing him playing time later. Had he not been injured, Martin would have been able to shoulder some of the scoring load and perhaps Jones would have been more comfortable keeping O’Bryant on the bench had he trusted someone else to score. Based on how close the game was at the end, and the way LSU struggled to score when O’Bryant was out, it seems safe to assume the Tigers could have won had Martin been healthy. At the very least, LSU would have avoided the scoring issues that plagued them for long stretches in both halves.

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When a team finishes its season on a run and they return a group of core veterans, it is natural to expect them to be quite good the next season. When that same roster adds a top 10 recruiting class, expectations rise even further. For LSU and Johnny Jones, a unique dilemma is going to play out early this season. Jones claims he can play up to 11 guys this season, but with all that talent and only 200 minutes per game to divvy up, someone is bound to get upset.

Johnny Jones is all smiles now, but can he make all his players happy this season? (SportsNola.com)

Can Johnny O’Bryant, Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey learn to play together? They are three of the best players on the roster, and all of them are best suited to play power forward. Martin is going to play small forward even though he played at the four throughout high school. He has some perimeter skills including a great jump shot, but his frame is more suited to play down low. To use him exclusively as an outside shooter would be a disservice to his overall talent. Mickey at the five has rim-protecting skills that will make life easier for O’Bryant, but he will also be taking up space in the lane and forcing O’Bryant to operate around him. O’Bryant will need to adjust and take advantage of all the open shooters created with such a packed lane.

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The concept of advanced metrics certainly has its critics across the college basketball landscape. Basketball players, especially of the young and unpaid variety, are far from robots that perform exactly as their percentages suggest. We know this because Ohio State did not win the 2011 National Championship, Florida was not in the Final Four last year, and I am not filthy rich from winning gambling bets. It is clear that utilizing advanced statistics such as offensive ratings, offensive rebounding percentages and percentage of possessions must be balanced with what we see on the court, but advanced statistics can give us an in-depth look at a player’s potential.

We know Marshall Henderson scores a lot, but how does he fare when analyzing tempo-free statistics?

To preview the SEC season ahead, we are going to look at players who excelled in advanced and tempo-free metrics last year in an attempt to predict who will be a standout this season. If we know a player scored 14 points per game, we need to know how many times he shot the ball to know how efficient he was. And just because we know a player scored only four points per game doesn’t mean that he was inefficient, but maybe he didn’t see many minutes or play a large role in the offense. Advanced metrics allow us to take our analysis one step further and hopefully serve to make more accurate predictions. Allow us to present our 2013-14 SEC advanced metrics superstar awards (refer to Ken Pomeroy’s explanations page for help with definitions).

SEC Breakout Players

We are looking for players who were largely role players last year but could become major contributors this season. We are specifically examining players with fewer than 60 percent of minutes played last season. And the nominees are…

• Michael Carrera, South Carolina – Carrera was just a freshman last season, but his advanced statistical profile was solid. He had a good offensive rating (102.8) despite being a high volume shooter (25.4% shots and 27.0% poss.). The really impressive part, though? He placed in the top 25 in the nation in both offensive (16.0%) and defensive (25.0%) rebounding percentages. At just 6’5”, Carrera finds a way to come up with the ball.  Look for the Gamecock sophomore to become a centerpiece of Frank Martin’s second year in Columbia.
• Michael Frazier, Florida – A lot of points walked out the door in Gainesville, but Frazier remains. He saw limited action (43.7% minutes) and a limited role on offense (15.8% shots), but he had an offensive rating of 121.2 with incredible three point shooting (46.8%). Can he remain this efficient with an expanded role? His 63.3 percent effective field goal percentage gives us hope that he can.
• Jabari Brown, Missouri – Brown had a 113.4 offensive rating, a 51.6% effective field goal rate, and was part of a very crowded backcourt last season with the Tigers. The crowd has thinned quite a bit, so look for Brown to take a big step forward this year.

SEC Outstanding Rebounders

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1. “Correlation does not always imply causation” as our friends at A Sea of Blue point out, but in this case the evidence certainly seems to fit. Kentucky has lost four of the five games it has played this year where the pace was played at 66 or fewer possessions. Kentucky’s scoring in transition has clearly been more effective than its half court offense, but is UK actively pushing the pace or settling for working on its half court woes? What has to be concerning for Kentucky fans is that the Wildcats seem to be slowing down. Other than a January 29 date with Ole Miss, one of the most uptempo teams in the nation, the Cats haven’t gone over 70 possessions since January 2.
2. Tennessee forward Kenny Hall is in trouble again, this time after an arrest for driving on a suspended license. Police stopped Hall for going 15 miles per hour over the speed limit, after which it was determined that his driver’s license was suspended for a previous unpaid fine. Hall missed the last 11 games of last season for an undisclosed violation of team rules. It is unclear now how this situation will affect Hall’s status with the Volunteers but University of Tennessee athletics department spokesperson Tom Satkowiak said, “The administration and coaching staff are aware of the situation, and it is being addressed internally.” Guess we’ll find out when we find out.
3. Former Auburn standout and current Missouri guard Earnest Ross has been markedly better off the bench than he has been starting the game this season. However, Tigers head coach Frank Haith had to create buy-in from Ross by demonstrating just how much better he was playing coming off the bench.  Haith wrote out Ross’ statistics on the white board during a team meeting last week and asked which stat line he would prefer. Ross is averaging 12.6 points per game as a substitute as opposed to just 8.5 PPG beginning the game on the court. Naturally, he chose the 12.6 per-game scoring average. “As a player, it kind of makes you understand a little bit more,” Ross said. “I kind of understood the reason, and as long as we’re winning, I’m happy.”
4. This season has reached an embarrassing low for Auburn‘s basketball team after six straight losses in SEC play. “I’m pretty sure that you would be embarrassed too if you lose six straight and you have a team that has the talent and is one of the best recruiting classes you can put together, and then having seniors that are not producing,” senior guard Frankie Sullivan said. “It’s very embarrassing. It’s hard to even get on a social network or talk to your family or friends about basketball because you’re embarrassed.” The six-game losing streak has brought Auburn’s record down to 8-13, but a home date with rival Alabama on Wednesday would be a perfect time for the Tigers to break their current skid.
5. LSU coach Johnny Jones has full confidence in point guard Anthony Hickey, especially after his late-game heroics on Saturday against Mississippi State. “He’s what I like to call a warrior and a winner,” said Jones. “He doesn’t shy away or back away from those opportunities at the end of games.” Hickey scored seven of his 12 points in the final 46.7 seconds of the game including a game winner with just over a second remaining. The Tigers are finally starting to turn the corner, winning three of their last four games.

Will Tucker is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Saturday’s Kentucky-LSU game in Lexington.

The name on the lips of everyone in Rupp Arena on Saturday was that of Alex Poythress, after his Wildcats dispatched a slumping LSU team, 75-70. The mercurial forward, whose production and motor had yet to match the expectations set by his high draft stock, notched his first college double-double with 20 point and 12 rebounds in 30 minutes. The performance absolved him of the forgettable 15 minutes he logged before fouling out in last week’s loss to Alabama. It also discouraged much discussion of the somewhat perplexing showing from Kentucky’s backcourt trio of Ryan Harrow, Julius Mays, and Archie Goodwin. While John Calipari’s guards each put together efficient stat lines and rebounded from a (generally) dismal game in Tuscaloosa, their disjointed half court execution left several lingering questions about Kentucky’s guard play.

The backcourt is still a source of headaches for Calipari (Credit Clay Jackson)

While there was plenty of blame to go around after Kentucky’s ugly 59-55 loss to Alabama, much of it laid with Harrow and Goodwin for shooting their team out of the game. The two combined to score 13 points on 5-24 shooting (20.8%), and dished out as many turnovers as assists (4). For his part, Mays hit four of his five three-point attempts and was the only Wildcat with a positive +/- rating in what was only the second time he had scored in double digits since mid-December. John Calipari’s backcourt triumvirate was as much of a wildcard heading into yesterday’s game as Poythress. That former Kentucky Mr. Basketball Anthony Hickey would be looking to exact revenge on his home turf for two losses against Kentucky last year placed even more pressure on his would-be defenders.

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1. Earlier this week it seemed inevitable that Missouri’s Frank Haith was doomed to receive a notice of allegations from the NCAA and a potentially devastating penalty to go along with it. Then, the NCAA reported unethical conduct within its own investigation of Miami booster Nevin Shapiro. Our overlords on the RTC home page discussed the embarrassment associated with another botched scenario for the NCAA in Wednesday’s Morning Five. The NCAA’s ineptitude could end up giving Haith a temporary victory. With the NCAA sidelined with sorting out its own transgressions, a notice of allegations for Haith probably will not be coming anytime soon. Haith might not get away from this scandal unscathed, but now it appears that he will at least have a temporary reprieve.
2. John Calipari is continuing to openly question his young team’s commitment to playing winning basketball in the wake of a 59-55 loss to Alabama. “Look, we still haven’t totally bought in,” Calipari said. “Individual players haven’t. But they just haven’t bought in, so we’re still doing it. But this is a team that’s growing and getting better. We showed signs and now we took a step back.” To paraphrase the words of former Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie, this team needs toughness, but Calipari maintains his staff can’t coach the intangibles. “If we have to coach emotion and intensity and effort, you’re not really coaching basketball.” One has to begin to wonder if Calipari’s decision to publicly criticize his team is based on a strategic move or has simply the result of frustration.
3. Calipari also praised Alabama’s effort in pulling out the win in a close game against his Wildcats. “I love that kind of game. It’s a gut game. Had nothing to do with anything else. Neither one of us played well. They gutted it. They had discipline at the end. We did not – and that sometimes happens with a young team.” Alabama coach Anthony Grant agreed and praised the way his team finished the game. “To be able to win speaks volumes about the character of our guys and the resiliency of our guys,” Grant said. Alabama’s tough play of late has the Crimson Tide firmly in third place in the SEC standings with a 4-1 start to conference play.
4. Florida’s 64-47 win over Georgia wasn’t a thing of beauty, but Billy Donovan was proud of his team’s effort. “I’m proud of our guys because we gutted the win out,” he said. “It wasn’t a pretty thing [where] we were just coming down and everything was easy. This was a hard-fought, tough, tough grind-out win”. Florida’s rebounding numbers have been key to the Gators’ continued success as they grabbed 10 offensive rebounds and tallied an over 80 percent defensive rebounding percentage on Wednesday night.
5. LSU had a gameplan in its victory over Texas A&M, and it didn’t necessarily involve Anthony Hickey‘s career-high eight steals. Johnny Jones‘ plan consisted of shutting down scorer Elston Turner. “I think a couple of things helped us with Turner: We extended the defense, which put him away from the basket, and when he got in the half-court sets, they didn’t have as much time on the shot clock,” Jones said. “I thought our guys did an excellent job, Malik Morgan and Charles Carmouche did a great job of shadowing him well, and then I thought the post guys did an excellent job of trying to trap the ball out of his hands and force him away from the basket.” Turner scored just five points on a season-low seven field goal attempts. It is clear that SEC defenses will focus on Turner after his 40-point performance in Rupp Arena so the Aggies need to find a second scoring option to help shoulder the load.

Christian D’Andrea is a SEC microsite contributor and an editor at Nashville Sports Hub. You can find him on Twitter @TrainIsland.

Conference play began for Alabama and Missouri last night, and soon after the rest of the SEC will fall in line. The SEC East has carried the conference banner over the first third of the NCAA basketball season, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t “West” schools that will be vying for postseason bids when March rolls around. The state of the former division has been muddled by a throng of underwhelming non-conference schedules, but it’s almost a lock that at least one of these teams will surprise their opponents en route to a NCAA Tournament berth. Ole Miss, LSU, Arkansas, and Texas A&M have all gotten out to hot starts in 2012-13. Can they sustain them?

Let’s take a closer look at each program in what was once known as the SEC West:

Texas A&M – The Aggies Are Headed Into Their First Season of SEC Play, But a Weak Non-Conference Schedule May Have Masked Their Flaws.

• The good: Texas A&M will enter the SEC with a 10-3 record thanks to head coach Billy Kennedy’s deliberately-paced play-calling. This team has used spacing, shooting, and patience to create open looks and bring inferior opponents down to their level. Senior Elston Turner Jr. has benefited the most from the Aggies’ new style of play, leading the team with 15.5 points per game thanks to a stellar performance from behind the arc.Kennedy’s preference is to grind down opponents, and it’s worked for TAMU so far. Only four opponents have cracked the 60-point barrier on the Aggies this season, and much of that success comes from a team defense that is helping to hold opponents under 40 percent shooting from the field. However, it’s a big question mark as to whether or not these trends can continue when the team’s schedule dives into more hostile waters during SEC play.

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  Elston Turner Jr. (31) has one of the smoothest strokes in the game (AP)

• The bad: A&M has played a cupcake schedule so far, and its three losses have come with varying degrees of disappointment. Their only win over a team ranked in Ken Pomeroy’s top 100 came in a 55-54 squeaker over Washington State, and that has been tempered by losses to Saint Louis, Oklahoma, and Southern.They’ll have to shape up quickly if they want to stay afloat in the SEC. They’ll open with Arkansas before traveling to Kentucky and then hosting Florida in their first three games. These showdowns will give the Aggies a chance to prove themselves, but it could also give this team a big hole to climb out of just two weeks into conference play.
• Player to watch: Elston Turner Jr. The Washington transfer has one of the smoothest shooting strokes in the game, and he’ll carry on a tradition of behind-the-arc dominance that SEC gunners John Jenkins and Rotnei Clarke have left behind in recent years. He’s become a more complete player in his second year at A&M, and he’ll be driven to make his transfer a prudent choice by leading his team to the postseason.
• Can it last? No. The Aggies have played just two teams from power conferences, beating a mediocre Washington State team and losing by double-digits to a better but still underwhelming Oklahoma squad. They’ve proven that they’d be able to burn through the Sun Belt, but haven’t shown enough through an easy non-conference schedule to prove that they can hack it in their first year of SEC play. Billy Kennedy’s team will have some success in league games, but their current pace looks unsustainable.

Ole Miss – The Rebels Are Scoring and Have the Best Record in the SEC at 11-2, But Who Have They Played?

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1. The New Jersey Nets fired coach Avery Johnson on Thursday, thus beginning the hunt for a replacement, and, of course, an established college coach is always a viable option. Cue the rumors of Kentucky coach John Calipari’s departure to the NBA. It is an annual rite of passage at this point, but Calipari and Kentucky have been there and done that. And he did it in New Jersey to boot. It just does not seem possible that he would leave at this point for another try in the big leagues, and definitely not a return to the same franchise. By the way, Calipari will have Kentucky in the hunt for another National Championship next year. He’s a coach made for the college game, and call me naive, but I think he finishes his career in Lexington.
2. Frank Martin continues to rack up some top shelf talent at South Carolina. With a strong recruiting class already set for 2013, Martin secured a commitment from Villanova transfer Ty Johnson. Johnson is a 6’3″ guard who averaged 3.3 points and 2.0 assists per game in 32 games of action in his freshman season, but will fill a need at point guard for the Gamecocks when he becomes eligible in December 2013. Martin is stockpiling talent in Columbia since his arrival this offseaso — in addition to Johnson, a top-75 recruit coming out of high school, Martin has also collected commitments from five-star Sindarius Thornwell, three-star center Desmond Ringer, and the son of former Gamecock star BJ McKie, guard Justin McKie. With improved talent in Columbia, things could turn around fairly quickly for South Carolina in the next several years.
3. LSU guard Anthony Hickey spent three games on the sidelines for disciplinary reasons earlier in the year, and now he will be out for a fourth game because of another violation. “Anthony has a lot of improvement to do in a lot of areas not only on the floor but off as well,” Tigers coach Johnny Jones said. “We have to try to help him develop.” Hickey is averaging 10.3 points and a national best 3.5 steals per game, but the point guard duties will be handed off to junior Andre Stringer. This string of suspensions isn’t the first time Hickey has landed in the dog house for various LSU coaches, and it likely won’t be the last.
4. Frank Haith’s Missouri Tigers are hitting their stride with big victories over Illinois and Virginia Commonwealth, but have recently suffered a minor setback as reserve power forward Tony Criswell will miss tonight’s UCLA game with a broken finger. Criswell is among the nation’s best offensive rebounders, with a 13.7% offensive rebounding rate. The Tigers are somewhat thin in the frontcourt beyond their starters Alex Oriakhi and Laurence Bowers, so Haith may choose to play small ball in Criswell’s absence with a three- or four-guard lineup. It’s not like Mizzou hasn’t gone small before, and been quite successful.
5. Kentucky guard Archie Goodwin went 4-of-17 from the field on Saturday in the Cats’ win over Marshall, but John Calipari needs Goodwin to make the easy ones against Louisville. Goodwin missed several shots at the rim against the Thundering Herd, leaving Calipari searching for answers. “I was disappointed, he missed four layups. I think he’s flippin’, Rod (Strickland) thinks he’s looking down, he’s not seeing the basket, he’s looking up at the last moment to shoot it. I don’t know what it is, I’ll watch the tape, see if I can figure out.” Expect Cal and Goodwin to watch the tape and figure it out quickly. Regardless, Calipari does not have much depth to put Goodwin on the bench if it happens again.

1. Tennessee has scored under 40 points in each of its last two games, scoring just 0.98 points per possession. The Volunteers’ answer? Speed up the pace. “I’d love to get out and run,” Tennessee coach Cuonzo Martin said. The players don’t think it’s time to panic just yet. “Everything is magnified right now because Jeronne (Maymon) is out and we had two games under 40 points,” junior Trae Golden said. “We’re fine. It’s still early in the season.” But there is a problem here folks. The Volunteers couldn’t even muster 40 points, not once, but twice. That’s not fine regardless of how early in the season it may be. And it is worth pointing out that speeding up the game doesn’t change Tennessee’s points per possession. It is what it is. Speeding up the pace just means we can see more of their inefficiency in action.
2. Somebody please get Jeronne Maymon on line one. His Volunteers desperately need him. Speeding up the pace of play may not be the answer, but Maymon certainly could be. Luckily for Tennessee, the senior forward is making significant strides. Maymon is riding a stationary bike as well as walking on a treadmill. The bad news? There is still no timetable for his return, which is troubling. But the even worse news? The UT Director of Compliance confirmed that Maymon could potentially redshirt if need be. The fact that the scenario is even coming up doesn’t sound positive for a speedy recovery.
3. Junior center Carl Engstrom of Alabama is out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL and MCL. The surgery to repair his left knee was performed on Tuesday. “We are disappointed to lose Carl for the remainder of the season,” head coach Anthony Grant said. “Carl is a very valuable member of our team and will be greatly missed. However, the hard work and determination that he has displayed throughout his career will also assist him going forward as he rehabs and prepares to continue his career next season. We are fortunate to have an outstanding medical team that will assist him during this process.” Engstrom was a contributor for the Crimson Tide, starting in three games this year, and clearly was a big body in the low post.
4. LSU coach Johnny Jones indicated that point guard Anthony Hickey may be joining the team sooner rather than later. The sophomore was suspended for a “violation of athletic department and university policy.” According to Jones, Hickey is likely to join LSU on its upcoming three-game road trip. He is sorting through the disciplinary matter with university officials. Hickey’s return will be a big boost for the undefeated Tigers. So far this year, the starter was averaging 10.2 points, 5.2 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game.
5. Florida is outscoring opponents by an average of over 25 points per game. What makes the Gators so dominant this season? A team typically known for its offensive prowess is shutting opponents down on the defensive end this year. “Coach [Donovan] just tells us every game that we can’t slack off, and we can’t have any slippage in practice,” junior guard Scottie Wilbekin said. “We try to go hard, and he’s constantly pushing us to go even harder.” The Gators’ field goal percentage defense is ranked in the top 10 in the country at under 35 percent. Florida’s defense will be tested on Saturday with the best offensive team it has played all season in Sean Miller’s Arizona Wildcats.

1. Camp Cal, as coach John Calipari affectionately termed his boot camp with the Wildcats, is more about thinking than it is conditioning. “For the next two weeks, we’ll be going at least five of the days three times a day,” Calipari said. “I’m fine. I’ll be exhausted, but what the heck. The whole point is to help these young people think differently. They’ve got to think differently than they’re thinking.” The change in thinking hasn’t yet made its way into the full 40 minutes of game play, although the Cats were victorious over Portland by 28. “I had to coax them into playing,” Calipari said. “I shouldn’t have to. I shouldn’t be on a guy, ‘Play, scramble, stay down.’ What? What is that, strategy? I mean, that’s basically how I’m coaching right now.” The Cats are still making mistakes made by inexperienced teams, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who has reviewed the Wildcats’ roster. They have two more home games over the next two weeks before meeting Louisville in the Yum! Center on December 29. Three weeks is a long way away, so expect Kentucky to look significantly improved by the time its intrastate showdown with the Cards roll around.
2. Another SEC guard has been suspended, and this time it’s LSU’s Anthony Hickey. LSU coach Johnny Jones cited a violation of athletic department and university rules as the reason for the suspension. “We will cooperate fully with the Athletic Department and University on the matter,” said Jones. “There is a responsibility that comes with playing college basketball. If a player doesn’t take care of his responsibilities, then he loses the privilege of being able to play. We look forward to continuing to focus on our upcoming game Tuesday and our three-game road trip that follows.” At this point, there is no timetable for Hickey’s return to the court. The Tigers are 5-0 with Hickey in the lineup, fueled by his 10.2 points, 5.2 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game. However, this is not the first time the point guard has found himself in trouble.
3. The Arkansas media is calling for Mardracus Wade to be more aggressive on offense after the Hogs lost to Michigan in Ann Arbor by 13 points. Wade scored five points on just five shots from the field despite playing 34 minutes. Wade has the third best effective field goal percentage on the team, but is ninth in percentage of shots and is 10th in percentage of possessions. The Razorbacks could have used his help on Saturday. Wade is extremely effective at getting to the free throw line (76.3% free throw rate), but Arkansas didn’t shoot a free throw until six minutes left in the game. Mike Anderson’s squad has lost four of its last five contests, with three of those losses away from home. The Hogs are typically very strong at Bud Walton Arena, and they begin a five-game home stand on Saturday. That should give Anderson time to work out a few of the kinks.
4. Who loves statistics? We do! And so does John Clay of the Lexington Herald-Leader who provides us with 20 stats you need to know from Kentucky’s win on Saturday. A lot of good information here about the Cats’ recent performances including a snippet about the play of freshman Alex Poythress. Poythress has scored in double figures in seven of the first nine games of his college career, including his 15 points on Saturday. Most importantly, he is 13-of-17 from the field in the last two games, including three of four from beyond the arc. Poythress’ efficient play has put him as an early member of a prestigious grouping that Luke Winn often refers to in his power rankings called the 70/50/20 club. Only four players possess membership at this point in the season. The club is reserved for players who shoot an effective field goal percentage of at least 70 percent, play in at least 50 percent of available minutes, and take at least 20 percent of his team’s shots when he is on the floor. Poythress is shooting 72.2 percent, playing in 73.1 percent of available minutes, and shooting 21.5 percent of the Wildcats’ shots. He joins Belmont’s Ian Clarke, UC Davis’ Ryan Sypkens, and Syracuse’s James Southerland as the only current members. With efficiency numbers like that, Poythress can’t shy away from the basketball as he did against Notre Dame.
5. Tennessee’s Skylar McBee’s jersey will hang in the rafters at Grainger High School after he scored 2,362 points during his high school career. McBee was honored Saturday when his number four jersey was retired. “I’m very proud of where I come from,” McBee said. “And it’s an honor that all these people back home think that highly of me that they want to retire my number. It’s very humbling, and it means a lot to me.” McBee started as a walk-on for Tennessee, but was given a scholarship by previous coach Bruce Pearl. The guard is averaging 7.3 points per game for the Vols this season in his senior year.