About six weeks ago during our preseason Big Ten conference podcast, I made a bold prediction that Nebraska would finish second to Wisconsin in the conference race. Predicting conference standings eight weeks before league play begins is tough as it is, but few predictions could appear to be more off than that one. The Huskers are now 8-4 heading into Big Ten play, with a semi-quality win over Cincinnati, a couple of bad losses to Hawaii and Incarnate Word, and not much else to show for it. Teams have dug themselves out of these kinds of starts to still make the NCAA Tournament, but the overall weakness of the Big Ten this year puts Nebraska in a precarious spot because there aren’t many more high-quality wins to be had. A 12-6 Big Ten record along with wins over the presumptive top teams such as Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State could give Tim Miles a legitimate case for his team’s inclusion (currently #87 nationally), but a schedule that includes only two home games against that group will hurt his chances.

Tim Miles’ Huskers don’t have enough opportunities in the Big Ten season to dig themselves out of a poor non-conference season. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

The losses to Incarnate Ward and Hawaii — both currently rated by KenPom in the mid-to-low 100s — won’t be forgiven. The Rhode Island loss (#51) isn’t too bad on paper but the Rams may struggle to rise from that number in the competitive Atlantic 10. The only other reasonable loss is to #76 Creighton, and that is mitigated by the fact that it occurred at home. The Cornhuskers’ first four Big Ten games include #44 Indiana, #41 Iowa, #155 Rutgers and #42 Illinois – all beatable teams. But just one slip-up against those four and you might as well stick a fork in this group as a potential NCAA Tournament team. The four opponents after that are #4 Wisconsin, #27 Minnesota, #22 Michigan State and #80 Michigan. Two of that group (Michigan is on thin ice) are likely to get NCAA bids and Nebraska probably needs to secure three wins during that stretch to build its own case for inclusion. The second half of the Big Ten schedule includes Wisconsin again as well as #11 Ohio State in Columbus and #24 Maryland twice. But if Nebraska hasn’t come through its first half with a solid 5-3 or better record, it may not much matter how the Cornhuskers perform the rest of the season.

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1. On Saturday, Indiana lost its final non-conference match-up to Georgetown in Madison Square Garden. In the second half, the game became a duel between two former teammates and Indianapolis natives, the Hoosiers’ Yogi Ferrell and the Hoyas’ D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera. Ferrell scored a team-high 27 points, including two three-pointers that helped the Hoosiers tie the game and send it to overtime. As Zach Osterman explains, there is no shame in losing to Georgetown on a neutral site — the disappointment stems from what would have been gained with a win. A win over a good Big East team would not only have given Indiana a big boost going into its conference schedule, but also earned them their first resume win and mitigated some of the stain from their bad loss to Eastern Washington. Now, the Hoosiers will have to overperform in Big Ten play in order to earn an NCAA bid.
2. This weekend we also saw the return of Dez Wells when Maryland defeated Oakland. After missing five games with a wrist injury, Wells did not get the start but played 22 minutes, chipping in 10 points and four assists. The senior’s return adds to the momentum the Terrapins have built after going 12-1 in non-conference play. In Wells’ absence, Jake Layman has stepped up his production, emerging as a legitimate scoring option for Maryland; combine that with the standout play of freshman stud Melo Trimble and a healthy Wells and Evan Smotrycz, and Mark Turgeon now has a wealth of talent with which to develop his new rotation, shaping up Maryland to be a force in its first season in the Big Ten.
3. The slate of Saturday games also included Minnesota’s convincing win against UNC-Wilmington. This was the Golden Gophers’ eighth victory in a row, and it caps off a nice finish to their non-conference schedule after starting 3-2 — they’re now 11-2 with losses only to Louisville and St. John’s (both in KenPom’s top 20). Richard Pitino’s pressure defense has once again been a big part of their success (defensive turnover rate of 28.0 percent, third in the country), but it’s their ability to share the ball that has really boosted the offense and overall play, as evidenced by the 66.2 percent of field goals made that come off of assists (fifth nationally). Minnesota will see if its collegial philosophy on offense will translate to a step up in competition when it starts Big Ten play Wednesday at Purdue.
4. Now that the non-conference schedule season has wrapped up, it’s worth reviewing what has happened in the season thus far. We will have some look-back posts coming up here on the microsite, but the MaizeNBrew blog from SB Nation has compiled a pretty comprehensive version of its non-conference awards. Wisconsin was honored as the Best Team, while Northwestern shamefully beat out Rutgers to be named the Worst Team. Additionally, the Badgers’ Frank Kaminsky was awarded midseason MVP, Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell was Best Freshman, Maryland’s Jake Layman was Most Improved, Wisconsin/Duke was the best game of the non-conference season, Iowa over North Carolina was deemed the Best Win, and Michigan’s infamous defeat to NJIT was identified as the Worst Loss. There are many, many more awards in the article, and it serves as a good recap of the early part of the season for the Big Ten.
5. Finally, fans have been grasping at straws to make sense of the “mushy middle”of this year’s Big Ten. It seems as if there is not much daylight between teams unless your name is Wisconsin (for good reason) or Northwestern and Rutgers (for not-so-good reasons). If you’re looking for some clarity, Jeff from the BasketballPredictions blog has updated his bracketology predictions to include Saturday’s results. His predictions and seedings reflect what he expects to occur by the end of the season. In it, he has eight Big Ten teams making the Dance: Wisconsin (#1 seed), Ohio State (#4), Maryland (#7), Illinois (#7), Iowa (#8), Michigan State (#9), Michigan (#11), and Minnesota (#12). This leaves out bubble-hopefuls Penn State (and their 12-1 record), Indiana, Nebraska and Purdue. These predictions seem to highlight how much uncertainty there is with any team’s record and/or performance in the non-conference, and that we’ll likely have a slugfest in the conference all season long for those precious NCAA Tournament bids. There are two exciting months of Big Ten play coming our way that will sort all of this out. Get excited!

1. Things have changed remarkably for the Big Ten in just the span of two weeks. It all started on December 6 when Michigan lost at home to NJIT and Purdue lost to North Florida in West Lafayette. Now, the league has lost a bunch of games to teams ranked below #150 on KenPom’s efficiency ratings, and it is losing much of its credibility in the process. Nebraska’s loss on Monday night to Hawaii was just the latest in a string of embarrassing defeats the league has suffered. The question that these teams will face is whether losses to the likes of Texas Southern and the rest could do so much damage to their resumes that a typical Big Ten 10-8 or 9-9 record becomes dicey on Selection Sunday (when in years past it was virtually a lock).
2. It’s not often that an opposing coach becomes critical of a team that has just defeated his own team. But that’s just what North Florida head coach Matthew Driscoll did when asked about Iowa after it beat his squad on Saturday. Driscoll referred to a confidence problem with the Hawkeyes that Fran McCaffery echoed when he was asked about Driscoll’s remarks. “I guarantee he’s watched every one of our games, probably twice. So he is qualified to make those remarks. But, I mean, so are you. You’ve seen it.” This team is obviously missing Roy Devyn Marble in more ways than just his scoring ability this season.
3. In happier Big Ten-related news, Wisconsin moved to 11-1 on the season by notching a solid and methodical road win at California on Monday night. Frank Kaminsky contributed another solid effort with 14 points and eight rebounds, and he kept his spot in second place in CollegeBasketballTalk’s Player of the Year rankings. One thing pointed out that could hurt Kaminsky when gunning for this season’s postseason honors is the fact that there will be times when the relative effectiveness of Nigel Hayes and Sam Dekker might limit his touches. The senior has done a great job, however, in doing more than just scoring this season, as he leads the team in steals and blocks and is second in assists.
4. Tom Crean and Mark Turgeon have both been discussed as Big Ten coaches with tenuous holds on their jobs. But with both Indiana and Maryland getting off to better-than-expected starts in the 2014-15 campaign, their jobs appear to be safer. With many of the league powers showing signs of trouble, the Terps (11-1) and Hoosiers (10-2) are in reasonable positions to make the NCAA Tournament this season. On the other hand, one conference coach who could be in trouble if things don’t turn around soon is Purdue’s Matt Painter. After playing reasonably well at the Maui Invitational, the Boilermakers have since slipped tremendously. They now sit at 8-5 with an RPI of #154. Barring a significant turnaround, Painter could very well find himself in trouble at season’s end.
5. Turnovers doomed Nebraska in its loss to Hawaii Tuesday morning in its first game at the Diamond Head Classic. Hawaii forced the Cornhuskers into 18 miscues, which, combined with a 7-of-23 shooting night from stars Terran Petteway and Shavon Shields, was simply too much to overcome. Now the team sits at 7-4 after last night’s overtime win against Loyola Marymount, but it lost a golden opportunity for a marquee neutral site win by missing on a battle with Wichita State. Nebraska will play Ohio to finish its trip to the Islands on Thursday, and then starts Big Ten play on December 31 against Indiana at home.

1. Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye narrowed his list of potential schools to six on Sunday, tabbing Big Ten schools Wisconsin and Illinois as possible destinations. The former four-star recruit also listed Creighton, Washington, SMU and Oregon as potential landing spots. The Ottawa, Kansas, native saw little playing time as a true freshman in 2013-14, averaging only 1.6 points and 0.9 rebounds per game while appearing in 17 contests. This year, Ojeleye averaged 10.5 minutes per game while tallying 3.0 points and 2.3 rebounds per game, but he found his playing time slipping as freshman Justise Winslow serving as the second power forward behind Amile Jefferson. Ojeleye’s athleticism is off the charts and he’s got a solid long-range game. A 6’7 stretch forward with those kind of abilities would fit in well at Illinois or Wisconsin – or any other Big Ten squad, for that matter.
2. Iowa took another one on the chin this weekend, dropping a game to Northern Iowa by a score of 56-44. Losing to an in-state rival is tough enough, but the Hawkeyes’ shooting and guard play has been lackluster at best. Iowa shot 27.5 percent from the floor and they currently rank 220nd and 272nd in two and three-point field goal percentage, respectively. Head coach Fran McCaffery has been very calm in his response to the players’ struggles. He told the media that he knows his players are good shooters and he’ll continue to have confidence in them. Anthony Clemmons is shooting a less-than-impressive 35.7 percent from the field – the best from all guards playing significant minutes. The Hawkeyes are already hurting without departed Roy Devyn Marble’s playmaking ability, and they’re going to have to make up for the team’s lack of athleticism with more jump shots. If they continue to be off the mark, then Big Ten play and 2015 won’t be kind to them.
3. Michigan State’s overtime loss to Texas Southern was surprising, but it helped identify exactly how important Branden Dawson is to this Spartan squad. Michigan State doesn’t have a go-to player to create shots and take the reigns in late-game possessions, writes Graham Couch. And even with Dawson in the lineup, the Spartans still lack a spark on the wing. No Keith Appling, no Kalin Lucas, and no Drew Neitzel (a blast from the past, for certain). Michigan State ranks 318th n the country in free throw efficiency according to KenPom, a prime effect of having no go-to rim runner. The loss to lowly Texas Southern may have come at the right time, Couch added, as it showed that Michigan State can’t beat anyone without giving it all they’ve got – with or without Dawson. One thing is certain, though – the Spartans are in the market for a playmaking guard.
4. Michigan head coach handed the starting center job to true freshman Ricky Doyle, removing redshirt freshman Mark Donnal from the starting lineup. Beilein made the move a day before the Wolverines dropped their fourth consecutive game in a loss to SMU. The offensive results were good for both Doyle and Donnal, as the two held the highest offensive ratings of any Michigan player. Defense was a different story. SMU’s Yanick Moreira led the Mustangs with 19 points, and Michigan was outrebounded 44-27. The Wolverines have been struggling to find consistency from their big men and there’s no doubt that they miss Jon Horford and Jordan Morgan. Michigan is experiencing some excruciating growing pains right now, but they should be able to get back on track against 1-9 Coppin State tonight, barring a repeat of the NJIT debacle.
5. Penn State closes up its non-conference schedule tonight against Dartmouth as it eyes the program record for most non-conference wins. The Nittany Lions are 11-1, tied for tops in the conference. Those 11 wins aren’t exactly against the cream of the college basketball crop, though. As Ben Jones of statecollege.com found, Penn State only plays one team with a sub-100 KenPom ranking in its non-conference slate. The one-loss record sure looks good on paper, but few pundits trust that the success will last in conference play. Penn State opens with Wisconsin on New Year’s Eve – and KenPom is predicting a 17-point loss for Pat Chambers’ squad.

Maryland quite possibly could be the surprise of the Big Ten thus far, as they sit at 10-1 and are ranked in both polls. They’ve already taken care of one Big 12 foe when they beat Iowa State in late November, but now they will get challenged again when they head to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State on Sunday. Dez Wells will more than likely still be sidelined, as he’s not slated to return until conference play starts. This is a winnable game however, and could help their resume should the Cowboys keep playing as well as they have to date. Here are some quick keys for the Terps in order to pick up a quality road win.

Senior Evan Smotrycz is still feeling things out with Maryland’s newcomers after missing eight games due to an injury. (Zimbio.com)

1.  Continue to Figure Things Out With Evan Smotrycz: In their win Saturday against USC Upstate, Smotrycz had a nice game, as he scored ten points in only 18 minutes. But with Wells out of the lineup, he hasn’t played much with any of the five newcomers that get extended minutes. This showed in that game, as the offense was out of sync at times when he was on the floor. The comfort level will get better with a full roster, but right now it’s key for Mark Turgeon to figure who Smotrycz works better with, and whether or not lineups with Jake Layman on the floor at the same time are feasible. They both essentially play the same position, but they’re both two of the best five players on the roster. It will be interesting to see how the minutes work themselves out, starting in this game.
2. Get Something Out of Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens: The two freshmen wing shooters have been up and down, shooting it at a 32.1 percent, and 36.7 percent clip respectively. Wiley started the season 6-for-13, but has gone 3-for 15 in his last six games. Meanwhile Nickens started out 9-for-28, but has gone 9-for-21 in his last four games. With Melo Trimble and Richaud Pack being better drivers than outside shooters, getting these two to both heat up for an extended stretch would make the Maryland offense markedly better.
3. Defensive Rebounds Will be Crucial: Despite having a decent amount of size and bulk, the Cowboys are only rebounding 27.5 percent of their misses (276th in the country). Maryland isn’t a great defensive rebounding team, and in their only loss to Virginia they were minus 12 on the boards. Damonte Dodd and Smotrycz have been their two best on the defensive backboards, but 7’1″ freshman Michal Cekovsky needs to come in and control things on the glass like he did when he grabbed a season-high eight rebounds in the Iowa State game.

Michigan State’s non-conference schedule has been defined by missed opportunities – first against Duke, then Kansas, then Notre Dame – and now, for the first time in years, it will enter Big Ten play with virtually zero quality wins of note. Only Texas Southern and the Citadel remain before the conference opener against Maryland beckons on December 30, the final two contests in an exceedingly soft five-game stretch that’s sure to leave the Spartans’ resume short on substance. And yet, as Wednesday night’s 20-point victory over Eastern Michigan showed, this light period might be the best possible scenario for Tom Izzo’s club. With two players returning from injury, Branden Dawson on the mend and the offense still finding its identity, December offers the crucial break Michigan State needs to round into form.

Freshman Javon Bess should provide added depth for the Spartans. (J. Scott Park | MLive.com)

On the one hand, Wednesday night marked an important step forward for the Spartans. Freshman Javon Bess – an expected contributor who missed the first month-plus with a foot injury – made his debut, logging one point and five rebounds in nine minutes of action. Izzo was high on Bess in the preseason and seems confident that the 6’5’’ wing will add an important, unique dimension it’s been lacking. “We’re missing a tough guy, and he [Bess] brings that to the table,” the coach said afterward. Likewise, sophomore guard Alvin Ellis III contributed 14 minutes in just his second full game back in the rotation. But while both players should provide needed depth in the coming months (especially Bess, whom Izzo thinks is “going to be an Alan Anderson-type”), neither appears to be game-shape enough yet to significantly contribute. Bess looked very raw during his brief second-half stint – understandable, considering the layoff – and Ellis, though aggressive, appeared clumsy and lost on several possessions. Luckily, with the team’s soft slate and eight days off prior to Maryland, Izzo has the luxury of slowly working them back to form: “Now we have time for practice.”

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Many sophomores in the Big Ten have a significantly greater role this season than they did as freshmen. That is to be expected, of course, as the second year is often when players make their biggest strides in development. Some highly-recruited guys, however, continue to disappoint, while others who may not have been so highly regarded have by now become viable contributors for their teams. This series of posts is meant to check in on a few of the different sophomores in the league to determine whether they’ve improved in their first year-plus and what it means for their teams going forward. Next up in the series is Indiana forward Troy Williams. 

Troy Williams has played well after returning from a two-game suspension at the beginning of the season. (Chris Howell/Herald Times)

• 2013-14: 7.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 0.8 SPG, 50.9% FG, 67.5 % FT, 21.5 MPG, 19.4% Usage, 100.1 Offensive Rating
• 2014-15:  12.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 57.6 % FG, 72.4 % FT, 23.9 MPG, 23.3% Usage, 119.0 Offensive Rating

Williams really hasn’t been mentioned much since his suspension for the first two games of the season along with fellow sophomore Stanford Robinson. As a result, his improved play has gone mostly unnoticed due to the hype surrounding freshmen James Blackmon Jr. and Robert Johnson. His numbers are up across the board, though, and he’s been especially effective as this year’s team incorporates a good deal of their transition offense without the scourge of last season’s turnovers. Williams has also been really consistent, reaching double-figure scoring in all eight of his games and pulling down four rebounds or more in every game but one (the Hoosiers’ Jimmy V Classic loss to Louisville). He’s also cut the long jumpers out of his game in favor of more shots at the rim after making only 20.7 percent of his three-point attempts last season. This is the root cause of his significant jump in field goal percentage. He’s still flying around and making a lot of plays based on his athleticism, but this season he is doing so in a much more efficient manner.

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Remember when the Illini had three guards who could man the offense with no trouble from 2003-05? Luther Head, Deron Williams and Dee Brown could set up the offense without any confusion, move the ball around with confidence, and pull up for a three without any issues if the shot clock was winding down. Yep, that was about 10 years ago. Since the trio left Champaign, though, Illinois has struggled to find a consistent point guard comfortable with both distributing the ball and creating his own shot. Chester Frazier didn’t really have a consistent jumper. Demetri McCamey was versatile on the offense but he couldn’t consistently involve his teammates. Brandon Paul was a combo guard, and while Tracy Abrams commanded respect from his teammates, he just didn’t have enough quickness to utilize his offensive moves and still carry a consistent assist rate. With Abrams now gone, there was a glimmer of hope that incoming transfer Ahmad Starks could be the efficient point guard to finally lead an offense that could launch the program back into the Big Ten elite. But after the first month of the season, the situation appears as bad as the last few seasons in that regard.

Ahmad Starks hasn’t been able to exceed Tracy Abrams’ performance from last season so far this year.

Starks’ game has several positives: He is quick to get around screens and has a much better looking three-point shot than Abrams. While a 35 percent mark from three isn’t all that impressive, his average is more a result of poor shot selection than mechanics. He also hasn’t been able to connect with his teammates during the second half of important games. Let’s take the latest loss to Oregon as an example. Even though Illinois assisted on 17 of its successful field goals, the offense looked completely clueless when it mattered. If the ball went inside to the low post, it never came back out. There was no lateral movement. If Starks couldn’t break his defender down, he dumped it over to Malcolm Hill who did the same – scoring only six points. The same goes for Aaron Cosby and Kendrick Nunn. Illini shot a respectable 37 percent from beyond the arc but taking 19 shots from there is concerning. There is no point guard who can set up plays that require ball movement and could actually result in a decent-looking shot in the waning minutes. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Sunday, Penn State got its best win of the season when it soundly defeated a talented George Washington team at the Bryce Jordan Center. The victory pushed the Nittany Lions’ record to 10-1, which is tied for best in the Big Ten — the lone loss a double-overtime bout with Charlotte. While the number of wins is impressive, a deeper look into the record reveals the absence of any other resume-enhancing wins. Even last weekend’s win against the Colonials, while no easy task, represents a victory over a team that hovers around the top 50 in both the KenPom and Sagarin ratings. Also concerning is the fact that Penn State has not exactly been blowing out its inferior opponents (they won by fewer than five points against Virginia Tech, Marshall, and Duquesne, but they still won). This presents something of a paradox between their on-court performance and their record, leaving Big Ten fans to guess how good Penn State really is. In this post, I’ll explore both sides of whether Pat Chambers’ squad is really a contender or pretender as he pushes forward toward what could possibly be his first NCAA Tournament bid as the head coach.

Shep Garner has been able to emerge as a secondary scorer for Penn State in his freshman year (Mark Selders/GoPSUSports.com).

• Penn State is a pretender. Look no further than the Sagarin ratings to show the true discrepancy between the Nittany Lions’ record and performance. Specifically note the Elo rating component, which is a formula that solely considers wins, losses and who they’re against, and compare it with the Golden Mean and Pure Points ratings, two metrics that take into account point differential. Based on the Elo rating, Penn State is ranked 49th in the country; his Golden Mean and Pure Points ratings list the Nittany Lions at 128th and 119th, respectively. That’s an approximate gap of 70-80 teams, with the difference accounting for actual on-court performance. KenPom makes a similar case in his ratings, as he ranks the team 89th but notes that it is among the top 40 in luck, a metric that measures how much a team’s record has been above its expected play on the court. So if you’re looking at these metrics alone, it’s undeniable that the 10-1 record is somewhat misleading.

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There have been 142 non-conference games involving Big Ten teams thus far, and yet it can be reasonably argued that we really don’t know much more than we did before the games tipped off on November 14. What we do know is that Wisconsin is still the clear-cut favorite and Rutgers will probably struggle to stay out of the league basement. That means that the other 12 teams are still clustered together into a large pack. Some have bigger wins than others; some have better offenses than others; while some have a marquee player who can get hot and carry them for a while. This exercise is meant to rank those other teams based on a number of different categories to see which is performing as the best and worst of the bunch right now . I’m no math major, so I simply took a look at twelve key categories and ranked each team accordingly. Some are subjective, some are objective, and it’s by no means perfect. But the categories on which I ranked each team are as follows:

Denzel Valentine is leading an efficient Michigan State offense in scoring so far. (Getty)

• Best Win
• Worst Loss
• Point Differential in home games against teams ranked #150 or above
• Eye Test
• Schedule Strength
• Best Player
• Offensive Efficiency
• Defensive Efficiency
• Assist Rate
• Turnovers
• Rebounding
• Three Point Shooting

After crunching the numbers, here are the results.

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