1. Charlotte Observer: What’s plaguing Duke, North Carolina and NC State? The fine beat writers and sports columnists of the Charlotte Observer (and effectively the Raleigh News & Observer) took a shot at pinpointing the issue. What is glaringly obvious is that Duke has the highest ceiling and has been a disappointment to start conference play. Coach K going with hockey-style line changes against Virginia worked like a charm for most of the game, but the Cavaliers’ late run still points to overarching issues. North Carolina has talent, but it’s increasingly clear that the pieces just might not fit correctly there without PJ Hairston. NC State is rebuilding with (unsurprisingly) mixed results. Also a fun fact from Stephen Schramm: “The last time there was an AP basketball poll without Duke and North Carolina was December 28, 1982.”
2. Cardiac Hill: Pittsburgh got some horrible news this week as Durand Johnson tore his ACL and will be out for the rest of the season. Johnson was an important offensive option from the bench, as he’s one of the Panthers’ best three-point and free throw shooters. Losing him will likely mean more minutes for Jamel Artis and maybe Chris Jones. I’d certainly like to see Jones get a little more run because he’s been a very efficient scorer in his limited minutes.
3. Macon Telegraph: Speaking of Pittsburgh, the Panthers travel to Atlanta today to give Georgia Tech its second chance in as many tries to knock off a new member of the conference. Pitt is a better team than Georgia Tech, but I think the Yellow Jackets have a shot if the can cobble together a decent offensive performance. The key will be locking down Lamar Patterson and the paint, but the big question is whether Chris Bolden has finally found his shot or whether the game against Notre Dame was an aberration.
4. Baltimore Sun: Jonathan Graham has been a very pleasant surprise for Mark Turgeon this season, although his playing time is at least partially due to the less pleasant surprise that has been Shaquille Cleare and Charles Mitchell’s collective season. Graham is currently the sparkplug in the post for Maryland. Despite a size disadvantage, he’s been effective and he also brings a toughness that has been missing on the Terrapins’ front line.
5. Syracuse Post-Standard: Syracuse is a big draw this season. I wouldn’t go as far to say the Orange are “like the Miami Heat or the Boston Red Sox,” but they’re certainly one of the hotter tickets in most places. That said, the Orange played their first road game at Virginia Tech in front of a half-filled stadium. But I’ll offer a caveat to these numbers: This is the first year ACC fans have had a chance to see Syracuse. Also, better teams sell out faster and more often.

EXTRA: PJ Hairston is slated to join the Texas Legends in the NBA’s D-League.

There’s a theme to the first four stories this week. They’re local pieces on the four teams that dismantled the ACC’s Big Four this weekend. All four lost for the first time in ACC history and they all lost by double digits. Oh, and Boston College won! So it was a big weekend all around.

1. Syracuse Post-Standard: Rumors started this weekend that Syracuse may be planning a new basketball stadium (though the rumors to just that and the plans are described as “preliminary”). For all its size, the Carrier Dome could use a major face-lift at minimum. It’s 33 years old and usually doesn’t get high marks from visitors. A new arena–designed with basketball in mind–could provide a recruiting boost. That said, when the dome is full it’s already a good attraction for recruits. I think Syracuse probably keeps the Carrier Dome until Jim Boeheim retires, but it makes sense that a new stadium is on the horizon.
2. Pittsburgh Tribune-Review: Lamar Patterson is continuing his poor man’s Oscar Robertson impersonation to start conference play. Right now he’s averaging more than 20 points, six boards, four assists and a steal in conference play. Not bad, especially considering his efficiency stats are off the charts thanks to above average shooting everywhere and a 2:1 assist-turnover ratio. Jamie Dixon called Patterson the most versatile player he’s ever coached. If his final numbers resemble his current ones, he’s a lock for first team all-conference and has a great shot at conference player of the year.
3. Shakin’ The Southland: Good look at Clemson‘s manhandling of Duke Saturday. Maybe the most interesting point Ryan Kantor makes is that Duke abandoned its 2-3 zone too quickly. The fact that Duke played the zone at all tells you all you need to know about the Blue Devils’ defense. Something hasn’t clicked with this Duke team. It’s really struggling with consistency away from Cameron Indoor. But give Clemson its due. Brad Brownell’s team is out-performing expectations by a lot. The Tigers are a very good defensive bunch, and KJ McDaniels is another all-conference contender (along with the conference’s best posterizer on both ends of the floor).
4. Richmond Daily Progress: Virginia finishes the Big Four beatdown dealers. The Cavaliers appear to have turned around their middling nonconference performance with three straight wins to start conference play. A big part of the new look Tony Bennett team? The resurgent frontcourt. Mike Tobey finally showed some of that potential that many pointed to while he was injured last season. NC State’s bigs looked overmatched all game. Now Virginia looks to continue its hot start with a trip to Durham where a very motivated Duke team (that has a habit of leaving the lane open) will be waiting.
5. Orlando Sentinel: Hold off on the Florida State panic buttons. After the ugly home loss to Virginia, Leonard Hamilton’s team did to Clemson what Clemson proceeded to do to Duke. In the same building. Then they took care of business at home against Maryland. This team is for real, and it’s because it plays defense. The Seminoles are very long and have the strength in the post to take risks on the perimeter. They also probably have a chip on their shoulder from last season’s skid. That should terrify the rest of the ACC.

From growing up playing basketball through college to observing many coaches over the last few years, it is my contention that a coach never strays too far from his roots, and you can look to one’s history to get a sense of the present. One coaching profile I read recently was on Alabama football head coach, Nick Saban, who gained his attention to detail from washing cars at his father’s dealership. If the car wasn’t completely streak-free, he had to wash the entire car again.

Jeff Bzdelik Simply Cannot Win Games on the Road (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

The same can be said for Wake Forest’s head coach Jeff Bzdelik. The guy simply can’t win on the road, and hasn’t been able to win on the road for the past several years, tracing back to his time at Colorado. He is quite literally 2-50 in conference road games during that stretch. OK, so the facts are out there, the guy clearly can’t win on the road. But why can’t he win on the road? I think the answer lies in Bzdelik’s history, one that has plenty of twists and turns. Here is a man who has been near greatness, and has taken credit for it. When he isn’t near greatness, he has been completely unable to win games, with the exception of his anomalous tenure at Air Force.

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It wasn’t supposed to be this way. When the schedules initially came out, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech expected to look very different in their third ACC game than they did on Saturday afternoon in Atlanta. For the Irish, things started to devolve in the preseason with the redshirt of Cameron Biedscheid, who then announced his transfer to Missouri after Christmas. Then Jerian Grant, a preseason All-ACC selection who led the Irish in points, assists, and steals, was lost for the season due to an academic issue. Then on Saturday, frontcourt reserve Tom Knight didn’t make the trip to Atlanta due to a sprained ankle.

Georgia Tech’s defense on Eric Atkins and his Notre Dame teammates were crucial in Saturday’s win. (Getty)

Georgia Tech has health issues of its own. First freshman point guard Travis Jorgenson tore his ACL in the Yellow Jackets’ fourth game. Then sophomore Robert Carter, who was averaging 10.3 points and 9.3 rebounds per game (with a 29.8 defensive rebounding percentage, sixth best in the country), suffered a torn meniscus. Sophomore point guard Solomon Poole, the team’s top backcourt reserve, missed the game on Saturday with a migraine. As Georgia Tech coach Brian Gregory put it, “It was two teams who were trying to re-discover themselves with guys out.”

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It’s the second weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 8, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST).

Saturday – North Carolina (10-5, 0-2 ACC) @ Syracuse (15-0, 2-0 ACC) – ESPN (12:00 PM)

CJ Fair and the Orange Look to Add to North Carolina’s Losing Streak

Pomeroy Prediction: (#5) Syracuse 75-64 (#34) North Carolina

There’s some chatter that it would be typical of this year’s up and down Tar Heels team to pull off another monumental upset in the Carrier Dome. But North Carolina has actually been more consistent lately, only in a bad way. The Heels do not look like a confident team right now. Still, Roy Williams has shown in the past (including this season) that he can motivate a team out of a slump. At least they appear to have one clear advantage on the offensive end they could exploit – offensive rebounding. Unfortunately for the Heels, the same is true on the other end with Syracuse hitting the offensive glass hard this season. Taking care of the ball will also be crucial against the long and active Syracuse zone. It will be interesting to see how many three-pointers each team takes. Neither likes to shoot many, but they both allow opponents to fire a bunch. Finally, a good start by the Heels (see: the Michigan State game) is important, but with the way the Orange has come back from big early deficits, even that may not be enough.

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North Carolina’s loss Wednesday night to Miami, dropping the Tar Heels to 0-2 in the ACC, was depressing enough for head coach Roy Williams. Where once the storyline of their season was predicated on top-flight performances against the elite versus some head-scratching defeats, consecutive losses to Wake Forest and the Hurricanes have now relegated them to the status of a team merely fighting for relevance. If you watch Williams’ press conference following the most recent defeat (you can do just that in its entirety here), it’s easy to see that this season has already taken a monstrous toll on the legendary coach. Maddeningly inconsistent play has certainly played a major role, but negative headlines that have enveloped the school off the court have played an even bigger role in Williams’ angst. After years of signs that increasing disenchantment with the machine of big-time college sports and its evolution (or devolution, depending on how you look at it), has Williams reached a point where he might consider walking away after this season?

Is this the year the outside facets of coaching college basketball gets to Roy Williams? (credit: goheels.com)

College basketball coaches will always have their ups and downs. Even the so-called perennial contenders still have years where they fail to fulfill their promise (Kentucky in 2013; Duke in 2012, etc.). Winning on the hardwood, especially with college basketball’s difficult one-and-done playoff system, is never going to be satisfying enough every year. Williams certainly knows that, having gone to seven Final Fours with Kansas and North Carolina and coming home with two trophies — in 2005 and 2009. It’s clear he enjoys coaching. He enjoys teaching and nurturing the players who come through his program. But it has been the outside factors — such as the AAU circuit and player “handlers,” parental involvement that has become rampant, and the enormous role sports plays in a university’s overall public perception — that are seeming to weigh on a self-described “old school” coach like Roy Williams.

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1. ESPN and One Foot Down: Major team swag news as Darren Rovell reports that Notre Dame will be moving from Adidas to Under Armour after this year. In a weird way the move shows just how self involved the Fighting Irish are when it comes to these sorts of things. There was a minor uproar when Michigan became Adidas’s “flagship” deal a few years back, so it appears Notre Dame headed towards a smaller pond. Seriously, if this deal isn’t massive, I don’t understand it. But hey, this means the ACC will maintain two Under Armour schools (Boston College is the only other once Maryland leaves) to go with two Adidas schools once Louisville joins.
2. Blogger So Dear: A statistical breakdown of Winston-Salem’s very own Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde? That’s right, Wake Forest has outscored its last ten conference opponents by 49 points at home, going 7-3 in the process. Ken Pomeroy expected that the Demon Deacons would be outscored by 40, meaning the team overachieved by a whopping 89 points (8.9 points a game). Meanwhile on the road the team is 0-10 in its last such games on the road. Opponents have outscored Jeff Bzdelik‘s squad by 161 points (16.1 a game) over the stretch which 46 points worse than Ken Pomeroy predicted. So Wake Forest’s current home-road differential is a 13.5 points a game more than what would be predicted by statistical models. That’s insane.
3. Greensboro News-Record: Good stuff breaking down North Carolina‘s struggles to start conference play, but I can’t help but wonder whether the skid has more to do with Marcus Paige returning to earth. Paige literally carried this team through non-conference play. Every time they needed a bucket he was there. But at Wake Forest and against Miami Paige had two of his worst games of the season. Also if you’re looking for another good take on Roy Williams’ struggles this season, Brian Barbour has you covered.
4. Raleigh News & Observer: Good work by Luke DeCock who agrees that Jabari Parker‘s mini-slump is nothing to be concerned with going forward. But wait. Did he notice that Parker and Paige had their two worst games at the same points? In all seriousness, Parker will be just fine once his jump shots start falling again. One (unrelated) thing I’m interested to see is how more teams playing more zone will affect the game in the long run. I think Syracuse’s zone is partially effective because opponents don’t play it very often. But with nearly everyone playing at least a little zone this season, I wonder if that will hurt the Orange against teams like Duke and North Carolina (though the Tar Heels haven’t exactly lit up the zones they’ve played).
5. Tomahawk Nation: With focus turned back to basketball, Florida State rebounded from its home beat down from Virginia with a win at Littlejohn Coliseum. Their defense was suffocating, exposing a Clemson offense gorged on non-conference cupcakes. Even more impressive is the Seminoles were only 1-11 from three. My only other takeaway is there’s a huge drop-off for Brad Brownell’s team after KJ McDaniels. He was the only player who had any offensive success.

EXTRA: Georgia Tech has decided to bribe students for showing up to men’s and women’s basketball games this year with a point system where students will be awarded prizes ranging from t-shirts and gift cards to the grand prize of a PlayStation 4.

There has been a multitude of change in the college basketball landscape this season and the ACC is no exception. Incoming teams Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame have had good to great success in their inaugural ACC seasons, with the Orange and Panthers looking like two of the conference’s most elite teams. Even Notre Dame, likely the weakest of the three after losing star guard Jerian Grant, has had its shining moment in defeating Duke last weekend. While the ACC has taken some hits and cannot lay claim as one of even the best two conferences in the nation, those three teams have done their fair share to elevate the overall profile and are not to blame. And as the college basketball landscape shifts, so too do the tactics and strategies used by coaches and programs to keep up with competitive trends. The utilization of transfers was once something of a rarity among power conference teams and an equalizer for mid-major programs, but it is now becoming a more widespread commodity. The ACC is not unique in that regard, as the league has its fair share of transfers playing major roles on its teams this year.

Rodney Hood drives past two Kansas defenders (Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Transfers can often be viewed as damaged goods, and some people tend to shy away from them as a result. But with many young athletes bouncing between high schools for various reasons, it has become more of a collegiate trend in recent years for players to seek instant gratification elsewhere. Coaches have learned that some transfers can bring an instant dose of maturity to a team and provide leadership and experience to propel a team to the next level. Many successful programs today have used that to great effect, including 14-0 Iowa State and 13-1 Oregon. It is difficult for a coach bring in new players and get them to mesh properly, and sometimes it backfires. UMass senior guard Chaz Williams is a great example of a successful transfer on an Atlantic 10 contender who has played a large role in turning Derek Kellogg’s program around. While the ACC doesn’t have any of those this season, the seven ACC transfers listed below have been meaningful contributors and are not too shabby in their own right.

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1. Syracuse Post-Standard: I like this announcer cheat sheet (with handy pronunciation tips and fun facts). That said, I’m not sure I’ll ever pronounce Syracuse “sear-uh-kyusss” though that’s mostly because I have no idea how one would begin to pronounce that. Someone should do a similar post welcoming Syracuse, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh to the conference with an intro for the ACC Network broadcasters. It can be rather jarring to see Mike Gminski’s outfits if you’re not warned ahead of time.
2. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: I’m still not sold on Pittsburgh and its vaunted physical defense just yet (although that physicality really changed TJ Warren’s game), mostly because they haven’t played a very good offensive team yet (Syracuse and Duke are lurking on the horizon). But it’s interesting that both Mark Gottfried and Mark Turgeon pointed to the Panthers’ depth — nine players log at least 10 minutes a game — as a big part of their success. However Maryland and NC State don’t have any depth, so that may speak to those teams’ weaknesses as much as Pittsburgh’s strength. But it’s still worth keeping an eye on going forward in conference play.
3. Washington Post: If you want to know exactly how Pittsburgh dismantled Maryland, Alex Prewitt has you covered. The team gave up a really concerning 18 points on 13 turnovers, and more importantly Dez Wells was nowhere to be found. I was surprised to see that Wells had such good numbers averaged over his other 12 road games since coming to College Park. That said, Pittsburgh just isn’t a good match-up for Maryland. They’re a team that plays great man-to-man defense with good help in the paint, but you have to be able to move the ball against that type of team. Maryland has a lot of talent, but efficiently moving the ball around the court isn’t the team’s forte.
4. Raleigh News & Observer: There’s been a good bit of buzz surrounding Jabari Parker‘s slow start in conference play, but to some extent this was to be expected. Why? He’s a freshman; teams generally put their best defensive forward on him; and, he’s been forced to guard the five as teams get bigger. Also, players of all ages and talents have good and bad games. But I think it’s important for Duke to find a way to limit playing Parker at the five because it’s not a position he’s comfortable or very effective guarding. The good news is that Marshall Plumlee has been working towards more meaningful minutes.
5. NC State Technician: Apparently NC State‘s student newspaper isn’t happy that its athletic department gets a little over two million dollars in bowl revenue sharing, but I’m not sure why anyone is upset. I’m not sure why it’s “disheartening” that a losing football team gets a bonus because it’s a part of a successful conference. That money is in no way tied to academics (unless you count support staff), and the academic side already receives similar bonuses (albeit not from the ACC) from the money its professors bring in with grants. Some money goes to the professors’ individual research, but a large plurality goes to the department and the school. Again, there are plenty of things to rail on with regards to college athletics, but shared bowl revenue probably isn’t very high on the list.

Tuesday night in Cameron Indoor Stadium, Mike Krzyzewski gave another chance to a starting lineup that had started four consecutive games back in November. Amile Jefferson and Rasheed Sulaimon replaced Josh Hairston and Tyler Thornton, playing well enough to earn a combined 64 minutes in Duke’s 79-57 win over Georgia Tech. After an evenly played first half, Rodney Hood’s second straight 27-point game and the Blue Devils’ energy level rolled past a Yellow Jackets team trying to adjust to playing without Robert Carter, Jr., in the wake of his meniscus injury.

Rodney Hood Scores 27 Again As Duke Beats Georgia Tech
(photo: www.goduke.com)

The last Duke game featuring sophomores Jefferson and Sulaimon as starters turned out to be the worst defensive Duke performance in at least a dozen years, a narrow 91-90 home win over Vermont in the sixth game of the season. After that contest, in an effort to establish a tougher defensive identity, Mike Krzyzewski inserted seniors Hairston and Thornton into the starting lineup. The Blue Devils made measurable progress defensively after the change, but for Duke to reach its full potential as a team this season, the more talented sophomores will need to be on the court more than the solid but offensively limited role players.

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