There were no big upsets in the ACC this weekend, but there were some big-time performances that are worth mentioning. The rest of college basketball offered some thrilling upsets and close finishes, but the Atlantic Coast Conference offered some sublime moments of its own in individual achievement and failure.

TJ Warren Blew Up Against Clemson Sunday

1. T.J. Warren Is A Scoring Machine. Sure, Warren went 0-for-6 against Maryland, contributing exactly zero points in the close loss, but make no mistake, that game wasn’t typical. In the game against Clemson, the North Carolina State forward scored 21 points. Yes, he wasn’t technically the game’s high scorer thanks to Devin Booker’s 27-point gem, but Warren’s performance was more impressive. Warren’s 21 points came in a mere 25 minutes that featured the freshman shooting 9-of-11 from the field, hitting a three, and grabbing six rebounds to help his team. Warren’s offensive production borders on the freakish. Coming off the bench, Warren is averaging an offensive efficiency rating of 129.2, which is the 20th best mark in all of Division I basketball. Of course, because of Scott Wood’s sweet shooting, Warren isn’t even the deadliest offensive weapon on his own team, but he is certainly a force to be reckoned with.
2. Assertive Reggie Bullock Is Terrifying. The only player in the conference with an offensive efficiency greater than Wood and Warren is North Carolina’s Reggie Bullock. Bullock has posted an offensive efficiency of 131.5, driven by incredible three-point shooting (47.7% on 88 attempts this season), low turnovers and strong offensive rebounding for his position. Bullock, also arguably the team’s best defensive player, unleashed his offensive fury on Saturday against Maryland, amassing 21 points in the first half alone and leading North Carolina to an early lead against the Terrapins. Bullock has struggled to assert this season, often vanishing from the team’s offense and deferring to others to the point of fault. On Saturday, Bullock demonstrated how his newfound aggresiveness could help the team: His shooting opened up space for James Michael McAdoo to operate and he drew extra defensive attention that made it easier for Dexter Strickland and Marcus Paige to handle the ball and make plays. This North Carolina team is still deeply flawed, but when Reggie Bullock takes the lead, the team is significantly better. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Syracuse Post-Gazette: This is the second part of a cool series. Basically the Syracuse Post-Gazette is previewing ACC road sites through the eyes of Wake Forest freshman Tyler Cavanaugh, who was a Syracuse high school star. His two words to describe Clemson: “orange” and “old.” That probably doesn’t do Littlejohn Coliseum enough justice for getting loud (which it is even when it’s below capacity), but Cavanaugh also mentions lesser-known tidbits like the visitors’ locker room is on the third floor. It’s funny, though, that despite his Syracuse upbringing he didn’t fire any shots at the town.
2. Washington Post: Maryland is lucky it didn’t lose to North Carolina by 30 points over the weekend. The Terrapins played abysmally in the first half, turning the ball over a remarkable 14 times. The game came on the heels of a season-saving home win against NC State, but unfortunately, that win may say as much about NC State and the ACC as it does Maryland. Mark Turgeon’s team looks like a tough defensive group that gives a strong effort (they did fight back to only lose by 10 at the buzzer), but will really struggle to find much offensive rhythm away from home. That simply won’t cut it on Selection Sunday.
3. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Speaking of teams with wildly varying performances, Virginia crushed Florida State at home this weekend. The win makes sense in terms of the Cavaliers’ ACC play at home, but does little to separate them from the middle of the pack in the ACC. Right now Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and even NC State look like teams you don’t want to face on their respective home courts, but look totally different on the road. The key for a team to join Miami and Duke at the top of the standings will be that it needs to establish some consistency on the road.
4. Burlington Times News: Reggie Bullock and James Michael McAdoo showed up in a big way against Maryland. Bullock finally looked like he realized he was the best player on the Tar Heels, nearly matching his career high in the first half. McAdoo picked up the pace in the second half, keeping Maryland at arm’s length while UNC held onto its lead. This was also North Carolina’s first win when its offense didn’t step up to the plate (outside of a dominant first couple of minutes). Unlike most Roy Williams teams, this one has to learn how to win ugly and on the defensive end instead of just running opponents to death.
5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: New Georgia Tech athletic director Mike Bobinski has got plans for the Yellow Jackets. Ken Suguira laid out Bobinski’s plan in nine simple points. The most interesting ones were his stress on selling tickets and his history of increasing gifts. The first may seem obvious at first, but if you have watched a Georgia Tech basketball game the last couple of years (and even when Paul Hewitt fielded competitive teams), there’s a lot of room for improvement there. The two should run hand-in-hand, and Bobinski’s history in finance and development should serve him well. Not to use a horrible pun, but if he can bring the buzz back to Georgia Tech athletics, there’s an incredibly fertile basketball recruiting background in his backyard for the program to become very good very quickly.

Not too many people would have expected Miami to be the last team in the ACC without a conference loss, sitting at 4-0 in league play at present, but that is indeed what has happened as we sit at just short of one-fourth of the way through league play. Ryan Kelly’s injury at Duke, North Carolina and Florida State’s disappointing play, and NC State acting in two straight games where the court was rushed (being on the winning side of one and the losing of another) have opened up this unlikely scenario. Is Miami’s run sustainable, especially considering that they are playing without big man Reggie Johnson?

Miami has started off ACC play quite well without Johnson-is this more a product of a fairly soft schedule or has the team truly adjusted? (USA Today)

Miami has three losses overall, and absences were to blame for all of them; their stunning loss to Florida Gulf Coast in its second game of the season was without Durand Scott, who was suspended, and Johnson, of course, missed Miami’s losses to Arizona and Indiana State following his thumb injury. In conference play, Miami has defeated Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Boston College on the road, and Maryland at home.

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In Duke’s win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Mason Plumlee put up 16 points, 13 rebounds and three blocks while playing all 40 minutes. That’s excellent production and exactly the kind of statistics you would expect to see out of your star big man. What you might not expect to see is that Plumlee also tallied three steals and a couple assists. In fact, the 6’10” Plumlee managed to tie starting point guard Quinn Cook in steals and placed second behind him in assists. That’s an impressive demonstration of Plumlee’s versatility, but it’s also a huge boon for his team.

Mason Plumlee Is One of the Leading NPOY Candidates

Generally, folks underrate the importance of steals, but with a moment of consideration it’s easy to see why they are so important. Like the obviously important offensive rebound, a steal gives you an opportunity for a shot you wouldn’t normally have, and like an opponent’s unforced turnover, it ends your opponent’s possession without a shot. Steals are very valuable to a team, and if your guards are wracking up steals at close to the average rate, getting above average production in a category like steals from your forwards and centers can lead to a team gaining a big advantage. When the biggest guy on your team can earn your squad extra possessions? It’s nothing but a good thing. So who in the ACC contributes in these unusual categories?

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1. Fox Sports Carolinas: After losing at Maryland, there was a surprising amount of this sort of chatter going on among fans in particular. “Does the Wolfpack’s loss invalidate win over Duke?” I think that’s a dumb question. The loss was on the road to a good team desperate for the win. Do NC State‘s players wish they had won? I’m sure. But that doesn’t make the loss any more damning. NC State is probably not the top five team some thought it was coming into the season. But it’s also not the team that struggled to beat Boston College. And nothing about that loss at Maryland took away from the previous win.
2. Washington Post: Speaking of that game, Mark Turgeon was livid with his team’s execution. “There wasn’t one timeout they did what I asked. Not one.” Given Maryland’s recent play on the offensive end, it’s hard to criticize the Terrapins’ coach. My guess is we will see Turgeon settle on a point guard when either Seth Allen or Pe’Shon Howard start running the plays he asks. In the long run it has to be the more offensive-minded Allen, but that may not be for a year or more (think Quinn Cook at Duke).
3. Tar Heel Blog: The arguments surrounding PJ Hairston starting over Dexter Strickland are pretty interesting. Most seem to think Roy Williams has settled on Hairston coming off the bench and providing a spark. This made a lot of sense when he was the guy who might hit four threes or miss a ton of shots, but this year he appears to have really improved his shot selection and in turn his consistency. But until Hairston’s defensive efficiency comes close to matching Strickland’s, don’t expect any major changes from Williams.
4. Soaring to Glory: Boston College needs to win close games if it wants fans to believe it has improved from last season. But the fact that so many more of the Eagles’ games are close this season is a big sign of improvement. This year the Eagles aren’t playing teams close for 30-35 minutes and then getting run off the floor at the end like last season. This year they are competing throughout the game, and also Dennis Clifford is still nowhere close to 100%. No one likes excuses, but it’s hard to win close games without one of your two best players.
5. CBSSports.com: Cool work here from Jeff Goodman and Jeff Borzello. The two talked with four coaches who played Duke about the best way to beat the Blue Devils. The answers are interesting. Every one of the coaches thought Mason Plumlee was the key player, since his offense in the middle opened things up for the shooters outside. Interestingly, they all cited different weaknesses related to defense. One said defensive rebounding; one said guarding ball screens, especially specific to Seth Curry; one said their limited bench; and one implied a shallow defense that you can get by if you can withstand the pressure. Overall, I would agree with all four in that order of importance.

Not to take anyway from a Maryland team that fought hard for the last second win over North Carolina State, but the buzzer beater that induced a court rush is nothing for either side to get worked up about. Before the game, Maryland was a 1.5 point favorite in the gambling world so, if anything, the Terrapins kind of underperformed. If you can’t trust Vegas, can you at least trust Ken Pomeroy? College basketball’s favorite computer gave Maryland a slight edge, giving them a 54.1% win probability right before the tip. Sure, NC State is probably a better team than Maryland, and sure the Wolfpack had a big win against Duke (though this team’s propensity for a hangover game is well-documented), but Maryland was supposed to win this game (albeit narrowly).

Home court advantage matters and in college basketball it’s a huge deal. If Maryland had to go play NC State in Raleigh this season, the Wolfpack would be a clear favorite to win that game. In other words: nobody panic. This game gave us very little in the way of new information.  NC State is still a good team, and, this season, losing to Maryland at home isn’t a bad loss.  This game shouldn’t change the way the public thinks about Maryland, either, but it probably will.

Maryland Was Expected To Beat NC State

The criteria for the NCAA Selection Committee  have encouraged certain tendencies when thinking about teams and their résumés. We know that “quality wins” matter and beating a good NC State team counts towards earning an at-large bid to the Big Dance. While the home court nature of the win is supposed to be accounted for, typically, the committee seems to underrate or outright disregard the role that home court advantage plays in determining a winner. How do we know that NC State qualifies as a good team? Well, rankings in the weekly polls and RPI, of course!  The Wolfpack’s rank in the poll and strong RPI ranking mean that we can rely on the powers that be to overrate the importance of the win. For a Maryland team angling to play in the NCAA tournament, this win carries some nice implications.

The Terrapins fought hard for the win, and the excitement of the team and its fans is completely understandable, but there is a sizable gap in the actual magnitude of this win and the perceived magnitude of this win. Luckily for the Terps, this discrepancy favors Maryland.

1. Blogger So Dear: This is the best blog post I’ve read all season. Seriously, I have no idea why it’s not getting more pub. John Mundy knocks it out of the park. He’s got great sources (two former ACC assistant coaches along with a few academic types), he’s concise and thoughtful, and most importantly his article doesn’t shove anything down your throat. I thought about putting this piece as all five blurbs, but that’s cheating. Onto the subject matter: changing culture in college basketball. How long does it take? Is it important? Read this, and expect more on this article later.
2. Georgia Tech Athletic Department: After a quiet search, Georgia Tech settled on Xavier’s Mike Bobinski as its new athletic director. Bobinski’s background is in money. He ran Xavier’s fundraising arm for two years (in addition to starting his working life as an accountant), which is the experience Georgia Tech is obviously looking to capitalize on. Bobinski is a Notre Dame graduate, who should be a safe hire — especially financially. The big question is whether he can reignite the spark in the Georgia Tech fan base going forward.
3. Tallahassee Democrat: Leonard Hamilton joined the ranks of ACC coaches putting their teams through long, painful film sessions (Roy Williams forced his team to watch film immediately after its loss to Miami, and Mark Turgeon made his team grade all 46 of its offensive possessions against Clemson). Like the other two cases, Hamilton’s frustration was deserved. The Seminoles refused to rebound and North Carolina closed the game on an 8-0 run to put it out of reach. It’s danger time in Tallahassee: They need good wins and fast.
4. Charlottesville Daily Progress: The injury bug is hitting Tony Bennett‘s team really hard yet again with Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins out thanks to foot injuries. The silver lining is that freshman Mike Tobey (who’s shown flashes of brilliance) gets minutes, but Bennett is an injury away from having to spell his frontcourt starters with guards. Luckily Bennett’s defensive system places far more pressure on guards than interior players, as it’s designed to collapse similarly to a zone.
5. Boston Herald: Joe Rahon has been one of the more surprising success stories of the year. The Boston College freshman came in a relative unknown, but he’s been very productive this season. Because of Dennis Clifford’s injury struggles, the Eagles have been forced to play small much of the year. Steve Donahue often rolls out a four-guard lineup, which causes match-up problems on both ends so long as Ryan Anderson keeps the opponent honest.

EXTRA: KJ McDaniels probably deserved his own highlight reel after Tuesday’s game against Wake Forest.

1. BC Interruption: Duke isn’t the only team dealing with an injured critical player. Because of Boston College’s struggles last year, it’s easy to overlook this team’s hardship. Dennis Clifford was the Eagles’ best player in Spain this summer. He hasn’t been 100% all year though. First it was his ankle. Now it’s his knee, and Steve Donahue doesn’t sound optimistic about the seven-footer. Clifford gives Boston College one of the more interesting frontcourts in the league when he’s healthy and allows Ryan Anderson to play the four. Here’s to hoping the Eagle’s big man can get totally healthy before next season.
2. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia Tech has gotten over its roster turmoil, but the bench has been inconsistent of late. Assistant coaches Chad Dollar, Josh Postorino, and Billy Schmidt were all suspended for a game. Brian Gregory refused to comment on the matter, and the athletic department spokesman was just as vague. Smart money is on small NCAA infractions, though Postorino was arrested in early December for DUI and had to sit out five games.
3. Greenville News: In Clemson’s win against Virginia, Milton Jennings showed glimpses of what made him a McDonalds’ All-American in high school. He put up 21 points on 13 shots with 11 rebounds to boot. Combined with Devin Booker, who has looked good all year, and the Tigers looked to be achieving their potential. Against Wake Forest Tuesday night, the Tigers still won (and by a significant margin), but Jennings disappeared again. He only took five shots. Even though the Tigers got by with KJ McDaniels stepping up, Clemson needs Booker and Jennings on their A-games this year.
4. Charlotte Observer: Mike Krzyzewski did everything but use the phrase “freshman wall” when describing Rasheed Sulaimon‘s recent struggles. The freshman’s plight has been lost in the wake of Ryan Kelly’s injury, but Duke needs Sulaimon back to early season form on both ends of the court. The silver lining is that Sulaimon has stayed aggressive, and it feels like if he can just have a good game offensively, everything else will turn around. It’s too early for Sulaimon to be hitting the conditioning wall freshmen often get late in the season.
5. Washington Post: Speaking of disciplinary issues, Mark Turgeon has also been dealing with “immaturity issues” amongst his players. Against Miami it was Shaquille Cleare who sat, but Turgeon made the issue sound more widespread. It’s still not clear where this Maryland team will wind up. The Terrapins dominated low and mid-majors during nonconference play–especially on the boards; and they have plenty of depth. If they can solve their leadership issues, they will be able to make a run for the Big Dance. But right now, Turgeon is on the outside looking in.

EXTRA: “Graduation gap persists between athletes and students in ACC” is a pretty strong headline. And the North Carolina study came to an even stronger conclusion: “the ACC ranks last among the NCAA’s 30 Division I men’s basketball conferences, boasting the largest gap in graduation rates between players and the general full-time student body.” Unfortunately, the article glosses over several very important points including how transfers and professional departures treated as well as how many years do athletes get to graduate. Still it is an interesting study.

Joe Giglio dug up an interesting statistic about NC State after it beats one of its Tobacco Road rivals. The Wolfpack are an abysmal 1-12 in conference games immediately following a win over Duke or North Carolina during the last two decades. With NC State’s game at Maryland looming Wednesday night, history seems very ominous for the Wolfpack (interestingly, the Terrapins are responsible for five of the 12 losses).

Is Mark Gottfried’s squad headed for a loss at Maryland? History says yes.

But does the trend hold up for other ACC schools or is it limited to NC State? I looked back through the last 10 years (through the 2002-03 season), and teams have an overall 41-30 record after beating Duke or North Carolina. NC State’s 1-5 mark is by far the worst, and Miami is still an unblemished 4-0. Every other team has beaten the powerhouses at least four times. Maryland’s 13 wins is the most, followed by Wake Forest’s 11 and Georgia Tech’s nine. Now this doesn’t mean NC State is destined for a loss tomorrow night. The Wolfpack have a much better team than in years past. Their poor record may point more to tough games following the wins, but my guess is there is a pretty sizable letdown after a big win like that, especially right over in Raleigh. Regardless of the effect’s statistical significance, NC State should be a lot more worried about the facts that Maryland is the best offensive rebounding team in the conference and is desperate for a good win after limping to a 1-2 start in conference play.

The records of teams and a year-by-year breakdown after beating Duke or North Carolina after the jump.

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1. Sports Business Daily: It was only a matter of time for this, but word has leaked that the ACC is looking into a conference channel like the Big Ten Network or Pac-12 Networks. Currently, ACC ratings are actually surprisingly strong in football (although without many huge games) considering the conference’s recent play. But a network wouldn’t be easy to pull off. My guess is that any ACC network would get pushed to the back burner until after the SEC’s network gets distributed.
2. Raleigh News & Observer: Not enough love for Richard Howell‘s performance was given here in the aftermath of NC State’s win over Duke. In the first half the Blue Devils kept things close (and looked like they might run away with the game for a while) thanks to strong work on the boards, but Howell grabbed almost every available board in the second half. He’s one of the strongest players in the league and he’s finally found a way to use his exceptional motor without also fouling. The Wolfpack need Howell to give them more games like that one if they want to finish on top of the league this season.
3. CBSSports.com: Ryan Kelly‘s injury may have opened the ACC race up. The biggest related questions are: (1) Can NC State play with the intensity it played with Saturday on a regular basis; and (2) Can Miami avoid its trademarked losing streaks? Based on the Wolfpack’s first two ACC games, their prognosis is troubling, but the game against Duke was excellent all-around. Miami is a bigger question mark. Its ceiling is decidedly lower than Duke or NC State’s, but it’s also a proven commodity on the road. In the end, look for Duke and one other team to vie for the top spot if Kelly is out of the lineup for more than two weeks.
4. Baltimore Sun: Mark Turgeon is starting to see familiar signs plaguing his point guard. The Terrapins are reeling after two straight losses and have gone from popular darkhorse contender to completely overrated in the span of a week. Now Turgeon is looking at a brutal four-game schedule that is like this: against NC State, at North Carolina, against Boston College, and at Duke. Those are three very losable games (I’d be surprised if Maryland was favored in any of them) with a classic trap game stuck in there too. Now’s not the time for dramatic changes, but Turgeon doesn’t have a lot of choice. The results of these four games will likely determine where Maryland’s postseason will be decided.
5. Daily Tar Heel: And in the inane Letters to the Editor category (from an alumnus no less), we have a letter calling for the firing of UNC head coach Roy Williams. Now, a pessimistic case could be made for Williams’ talent-driven system being disrupted by one John Calipari’s annual raids on the five-star recruit pantry. A much more reasonable argument would see this year as Williams getting burned by Kendall Marshall departing for the NBA early (something few expected) and the Wear twins transferring back home.

Poll Thoughts: There was a lot of discussion about who the new number one team should be after the last of the unbeatens, Michigan, went down over the weekend. The ACC part of the argument essentially came down to the fact that Duke is a very different team without Ryan Kelly on the floor and should be ranked as such. This (essentially a small sample size eye test), to me, is just as good an argument as basing your rankings entirely on resume. The one caveat to such a standpoint is that once Kelly returns, Duke should — assuming he’s at 100% — jump back to its previous standing. This is where the justification is flawed, as voters rarely jump teams near the top of the rankings without a loss. Luckily polls mean nothing but pride for college basketball.

EXTRA: In case missed the Miami-Maryland brick-laying contest, this GIF sums the game up remarkably well.