RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish. Walker Carey (@walkerRcarey) is in Pittsburgh this weekend.

Three Key Takeaways.

Villanova Cruised by Radford Today (USA Today Images)

1. Villanova was simply overpowering. Just like most #1/#16 match-ups, there was a massive discrepancy in talent between Villanova and Radford. Throughout tonight’s game, Villanova was able to get everything it wanted on the offensive end of the court and its athleticism and size on the defensive end were too much for Radford to handle offensively. This was highlighted by the fact that Villanova shot 59.6 percent from the field and 51.9 percent from the three-point line while Radford shot just 33.9 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from the three-point line. All in all, it was abundantly clear why one team is the top seed in the region and is widely projected to get to the Final Four and the other team had to win a game at the First Four just to make it to the main bracket.
2. Jalen Brunson showcased why he is one of the best players in the country. It is certainly tough to be underrated when you started at point guard for a national champion as a freshman and are the best player on another strong favorite to reach the Final Four. But Brunson does not grab the headlines or make many highlight reel plays, he just puts forth winning performances on a nightly basis. The junior put together another sterling effort in tonight’s victory, finishing the game with 16 points on 7-of-9 shooting to go along with four assists. He was clearly the best player on the floor tonight, and that is a trend that figures to continue as Villanova makes its way through the bracket.
3. This game should just be a footnote in what was a remarkable March for Radford. Radford got smoked tonight — there is no way around that. But while tonight’s result has to sting, Radford’s March should not be defined by this single game. The reason why Radford even had the opportunity to play in the NCAA Tournament was because freshman guard Carlik Jones hit a buzzer-beating three-pointer to best Liberty in the Big South title game. The reason why Radford had the opportunity to play Villanova was because it used a great second half performance to coast to a 10-point win over LIU-Brooklyn in the First Four. Those moments are what Radford fans should remember when they recall the wonderful March run that they had to get to this spot.

Player of the Game. Jalen Brunson, Villanova. The Wildcats put six players — Brunson, Phil Booth, Omari Spellman, Mikal Bridges, Eric Paschall, and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree — in double figures tonight, but it was the junior point guard that really set the tone. “Coach on the floor” is a tired cliche that is often incorrectly used, but it certainly fits with Brunson. When watching Villanova play, you clearly see how much the Wildcats feed off his energy and leadership. While he may not be the most talented player in the country, he might be the most important player in the country.

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RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish. Walker Carey (@walkerRcarey) is in Pittsburgh this weekend.

Three Key Takeaways.

Marvin Bagley is Just Too Much (USA Today Images)

1. Duke did what it had to do to advance. Make no mistake about it, few outside of the Iona locker room thought the Gaels had a legitimate shot of pulling the upset this afternoon. Iona is known for its up-tempo offensive attack, which caused it to run into problems with a more athletic and skilled Duke team that loves to play that way too. After a hard-fought opening stretch where the two teams consistently traded buckets, Duke exerted its will by putting its bigger talent advantage on display for the balance of the game. Mike Krzyzewski‘s team has much greater dreams than just advancing to the Second Round – and if they are able to make a run to the Final Four, no one will look back at this game as a turning point of any sorts. Duke just did what it had to and left with a drama-free victory. That is about as good as you can ask for in this tournament.
2. Marvin Bagley III is a special talent. You have likely heard plenty about Marvin Bagley III’s exploits this season. The freshman ACC Player of the Year has been terrific from start to finish this season, and that continued this afternoon as Duke repeatedly forced the issue with the talented big man. Bagley terrorized the Iona front line for every second he played, finishing with 22 points (10-of-14 FG) and seven rebounds in 32 minutes of action. Duke is among the favorites to advance far into the bracket this year, and if the Blue Devils are fortunate enough to meet those expectations, the freshman big man’s dominating play will be a major reason why.
3. Iona deserves praise for its run in the MAAC. Iona definitely did not have the horses to compete with Duke for 40 minutes today, which is understandable. Iona plays in the MAAC while Duke is a blue-blood program that plays in the ACC and consistently recruits at the highest level of the sport. While the Gaels did not create a lasting March moment this afternoon, it should certainly be appreciated what Tim Cluess is building at Iona. The Gaels have now made three straight NCAA Tournaments and should look good next season as well, with a large share of their talent expected to return next season.

Player of the Game. Trevon Duval, Duke. The knock on the freshman point guard all season has been poor shooting and inconsistent decision-making. That was not the case today, though, as Duval was terrific throughout his 31 minutes of action. He finished with 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting (4-of-5 3FG) and dished out eight assists in the victory. It was a phenomenal performance by the freshman, and one on which he can definitely build on as the NCAA Tournament progresses.

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RTC will be providing coverage of the NCAA Tournament from start to finish. Walker Carey (@walkerRcarey) is in Pittsburgh this weekend.

Rhode Island Gutted Out Another NCAA Tournament Victory (USA Today Images)

Three Key Takeaways.

1. What a start to the NCAA Tournament. This afternoon’s action represented the first game of the Round of 64 this year and it certainly did not disappoint. Regulation was marked by both teams trading punches and finding responses to stay within striking distance. Oklahoma came back to force overtime thanks to heroics from freshman phenom Trae Young, as the point guard extraordinaire scored the Sooners’ final 11 points of regulation to knot the game at 69. Rhode Island had a pair of chances to win it in regulation, but a Jeff Dowtin jumper rattled off the rim and Stanford Robinson‘s put-back attempt agonizingly fell off to force the extra period. While Rhode Island was able to put together several strong possessions in a row and eventually pull away in overtime, this game was a strong reminder of what makes the NCAA Tournament such an exciting event every single year.
2. E.C. Matthews carried Rhode Island in the overtime period. With Rhode Island trailing 72-71 and under two minutes to play, it went to its senior leader for a much-needed spark. E.C. Matthews buried a three-pointer with 1:52 left to give the Rams a two-point lead, and he followed that up by burying another one with 31 seconds remaining to give his team an insurmountable five-point lead. The Rams had to be disappointed that they had squandered a late lead in regulation, but a senior leader like Matthews ensured that his team was going to carry on and win the game in overtime. Leading up to Rhode Island’s Second Round game on Saturday, it is a near certainty you will hear more about the long and winding career of Matthews.
3. This was likely Trae Young’s last college basketball game. If you have followed college basketball this season, you have certainly heard more than enough about Oklahoma’s Trae Young. In likely his final game as a Sooner, he turned in a very on-brand performance to support his certain All-America bona fides. Young finished the afternoon with 28 points on 9-of-18 shooting (3-of-9 3FG) to go along with seven assists and six turnovers. The best part of his performance, though, was that Young was really all Oklahoma had as an offensive option when it needed a big play. It was a benefit and a challenge which was pretty much the entire story for Oklahoma this season — and ultimately caused Lon Kruger‘s Sooners to go one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament. Young is an exceptional player who seems poised to have a lengthy NBA career, but it is somewhat a shame that he did not receive more assistance from his teammates during his tenure as the Sooners’ star point guard.

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Yesterday, Big 12 microsite writers Brian Goodman (@BSGoodman) and Chris Stone (@cstonehoops) reviewed Thursday’s Big 12 match-ups. Today, they’re back to talk about the roads ahead starting on Friday for West Virginia, Kansas State and Texas.

CS: This is the fourth NCAA Tournament for Press Virginia and so far the Mountaineers have yet to make it past the Sweet Sixteen. That seems odd given how tough their defense is to prepare for. Do you think West Virginia can finally get over the regional semifinals hump this season?

Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers will need some help to make a deep run. (Washington Times)

BG: They certainly can, but it’s going to be a major challenge. The OVC was home to two of the top 15 teams in the country at generating turnovers — Tennessee State and Austin Peay — and Murray State won all three meetings with them. I like West Virginia’s chances to advance on Friday, but the Mountaineers’ pressure will not be anything new to the Racers and they’ve already proven they can win in spite of it. As far as the Round of 32 goes, West Virginia will likely have to contend with a Wichita State team that takes excellent care of the ball and crashes the defensive glass. Furthermore, the neutral environment in San Diego won’t swing the officiating in the same way it often does in Morgantown. And that’s just to get to the Sweet 16. If you can beat Virginia as West Virginia did earlier this year, you can beat anyone, but I don’t see the Mountaineers getting the requisite amount of help they’ll need to go any further.

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With the NCAA Tournament now just a few hours from opening tip, here are 32 quick takes for the 32 First Round games today and tomorrow.

How Will the Loss of DeAndre Hunter Affect Virginia? (USA Today Images)

1. Virginia vs. UMBC: UMBC’s offense finished the season with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking outside of the top 200 — good luck against Virginia!
2. Creighton vs. Kansas State: Look for Creighton’s transition offense to test Kansas State’s porous transition defense here.
3. Kentucky vs. Davidson: Wildcats vs. Wildcats — Davidson was only one of two teams this season to shoot better than 55 percent on two-point attempts against Virginia. Will Kentucky be focused for the entire 40 minutes of this one?
4. Arizona vs. Buffalo: Arizona ranks fourth nationally in points per possession in post-up situations while Buffalo comes into this game ranked outside of the top 250 in the same metric — definitely not the right formula to stop Mr. Ayton.
5. Miami (FL) vs. Loyola-Chicago: To beat Miami (FL), Loyola-Chicago will need to replicate its defensive performance of forcing Florida to shoot 2-of-19 behind the arc.
6. Tennessee vs. Wright State: If Wright State big man Loudon Love stays out of foul trouble, he could grab enough rebounds against the Volunteers to give Wright State a reasonable chance at an upset.
7. Nevada vs. Texas: Nevada’s plethora of 6’7″ players will try to stretch out the Texas defense, but will that be enough to neutralize the Mo Bamba effect?
8. Cincinnati vs. Georgia State: While D’Marcus Simonds is playing the R.J. Hunter role for this version of Georgia State, do not expect to see Cincinnati play the role of Baylor. Read the rest of this entry »

With the Pac-12 already off to an inauspicious start given UCLA‘s First Four loss to St. Bonaventure, Pac-12 microsite writers Adam Butler (@pachoopsAB) and RJ Abeytia (@rj_abeytia) break down the burning questions facing Arizona, Arizona State and the rest of the conference.

It’s Been That Kind of Year in the Pac-12 (USA Today Images)

Adam Butler: OK – let me start with the obvious – as Pac-12 bloggers, did the Pac get hosed by the NCAA?

R.J.:  I say we start with USC. Screwed or not screwed?

Adam Butler: Screwed! Whenever you’re “the somethingest to not something,” you’ve been screwed.

R.J.: USC was but most people are framing the argument incorrectly. It’s the whole body of work and the committee once again proved that there is no line of demarcation in their view between conference and non-conference play and, if anything, non-conference > conference. Andy Enfield has historically scheduled gutlessly in the non-conference realm but a #34 RPI is still a #34 RPI.

Adam Butler: Well… and this is where it gets weird with the 36 at-larges. Are they the 36 best teams remaining or the 36 most deserving?

R.J.: It has to be the 36 most deserving. I hate when an undeserving team gets in and then people retroactively declare them worthy of inclusion.

Adam Butler: Further – are you buying the FBI conspiracies? That the toothless NCAA is taking passive-aggressive jabs at schools explicitly under investigation?

R.J.:  This is not the first time USC has been made an example, only to have other schools get lesser penalties for greater infractions.

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With Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas Tech set to play in the Round of 64 tomorrow, Big 12 microsite writers Brian Goodman (@BSGoodman) and Chris Stone (@cstonehoops) break down the burning questions facing the Sooners, Jayhawks and Red Raiders.

Will tomorrow be the last day we see Trae Young in an Oklahoma uniform? (Sue Ogrocki/AP)

Brian Goodman: A lot of people are understandably down on Oklahoma after their disastrous finish to the regular season and early exit in the Big 12 Tournament, but the Big Dance can have a way of breathing new life into teams who are limping into it. Do you see the Sooners turning over a new leaf tomorrow afternoon?

Chris Stone: The Sooners don’t exactly look like they want to be playing basketball anymore, so I’m leaning no here. The team doesn’t seem like they enjoy playing together; Trae Young is admittedly tuckered out; and the defense has been a disaster. I expect Rhode Island’s Jared Terrell to set the tone defensively in this game by getting into Young early. It wouldn’t surprise me if Oklahoma wilts from there.

BG: Silvio De Sousa and Malik Newman needed to have big games for Kansas last weekend in the Big 12 Tournament and both delivered. With Udoka Azubuike still on the mend, how important are those two players to the team’s overall prospects?

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Rush the Court’s ACC microsite writers Brad Jenkins, Matt Auerbach and Mick McDonald chatted this week about the NCAA Tournament prospects for all nine ACC schools involved.

Losing De’Andre Hunter is a huge blow to Virginia’s NCAA title hopes. (Ryan M. Kelly/Getty)

Brad Jenkins: Well it’s Tourney time fellas! I guess we should start with the gut wrenching news of the day – De’Andre Hunter is out with a broken wrist for the entire tournament. Mick, how does Virginia adapt short-term and long-term?

Mick McDonald: I figured we’d have to start here. It’s devastating news for Virginia. Hunter’s flexibility allowed the Cavaliers to play small with him at the four or bigger with him at the three. He was a great option on offense and could score in a variety of ways. It’s crushing. Long term — as in, next year — it’s no big deal. He’ll recover and be ready to go. But this year? I just can’t see Virginia winning the title without him. Maybe they can get by Arizona/Kentucky/Cincinnati to make the Final Four, but I doubt it.

Matt Auerbach: I hate to agree with Mick, because after being in Brooklyn and seeing and finally appreciating the live beauty of Virginia basketball, I penciled them in as my favorite — but thankfully, it was in pencil. Hunter is a tremendous talent and gives them so much on both ends off the bench. Without him, I think the Arizona game if it materializes becomes a lot trickier.

Mick McDonald: Tony Bennett will now have to give minutes to Marco Anthony, a smaller freshman wing who played well during Nigel Johnson’s suspension. He’s not Hunter but he will have to play well when called on.

Brad Jenkins: It does remove the option of playing small. The good news is that the other talented teams in the South region like Kentucky, Arizona and Cincinnati all will have required a bigger Virginia lineup anyway. So I think they can still get to San Antonio.

Matt Auerbach: All this being said — and the loss of Hunter could easily be viewed as detrimental — but would it shock me to see Virginia still make it to San Antonio? Absolutely not.

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The SEC has more teams in the NCAA Tournament than it ever has before, and big things are expected this postseason after placing three teams in the Elite Eight and South Carolina in the Final Four a year ago. Let’s look at a few of the burning questions facing the league on the eve of the Big Dance.

The pressure is on Billy Kennedy and Texas A&M this postseason. (CBS Sports)

• Which SEC team has the best chance to go the deepest? This is a tough one, as there are no obvious candidates to make it to the Final Four despite the SEC placing eight teams into the field. In fact, none of the group has an easy path, assuming seeding holds, beyond the Sweet Sixteen. Kentucky is playing well but a very tough draw will likely require the Wildcats to beat Arizona to get out of Boise. Tennessee and Auburn have reasonable paths to advance from the first weekend but would need to likely beat Cincinnati and Kansas, respectively, to advance beyond that point. And even though Florida has been wildly inconsistent all season long, the Gators have enough shot-makers and experience to reach the Elite Eight for the second straight year (and six of the last eight).
• Which SEC player will break out and make a national name for himself? Tennessee’s Admiral Schofield has been on fire recently as the most consistent offensive performer on his team, using his versatile and unique offensive game to lead the Volunteers in three-pointers made while shooting a healthy 39.5 percent from behind the arc. Because of his ability to both draw defenders away from the basket while getting good looks inside, he is an extremely difficult match-up for nearly any opponent in the field. If the Volunteers can make it out of Dallas this weekend, the rest of the country will get to see what the SEC has known for the last two months — that Schofield is worthy of his selection to various all-SEC teams.

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Preseason rankings — they are, in most sports, completely irrelevant when the postseason rolls around. But not in college basketball. When projecting Final Four teams, as we have covered in this space before, the preseason AP Poll is just as predictive as the current AP poll. The rationale for this is that preseason rankings account for things that the mathematical models struggle with (for example, coaching changes, big recruiting classes, injuries and suspensions, etc.), making them a surprisingly accurate projection system. So what about the handful of teams each year that are excluded from these rankings but go on to do great things in the regular season? Is it safe to assume that if you can’t crack the preseason Top 25, you won’t cut down any nets in March?

Can Virginia Break the Trend? (USA Today Images)

To answer this question, I looked at historical NCAA Tournament teams that were unranked in the preseason but were ranked in the final regular season poll (this one) to examine whether they came crashing down to earth when it mattered most. My findings indicate that these teams have in fact underperformed as a group in the NCAA Tournament. Since 2007, 106 teams fit the criteria. Just 37 of that group (35%) exceeded their seeds’ average win expectation (based on average wins for each seed since 2002), and the group as a whole won just 120 games. That mark is 30 below an expected aggregate total of 150 victories, a statistically significant difference at the five percent level. Furthermore, just one of 51 top-four seeds ultimately made the Final Four (Kemba Walker’s 2011 Connecticut squad), although they have collectively produced 11 Elite Eight appearances with Florida‘s run last year being the most recent example. The conclusion here is that, although a handful of teams in this group may turn out to exceed expectations, it is likely as a whole to underperform.

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