Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCEastregion, @RTCMWregion,@RTCSouthregion and @RTCWestregion.

Three Key Takeaways:

Yale’s Justin Sears slams one home during the first half against Baylor. (Credit: AP/ Charles Krupa)

1. Yale is very fun… and very good. Yale is an entertaining group of basketball players as well as people. Justin Sears is quick-witted at the dais and Brandon Sherrod skipped a year of basketball to sing in an a cappella group, but this team is also very capable of making a run to the second weekend. The Bulldogs are ranked 41st on KenPom, play relentless defense (21st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency), and rebound the heck out of the ball (third nationally in offensive rebound rate; eighth in defensive rebound rate). Although the Bulldogs lost to Duke back in November, the Blue Devils are vulnerable on the offensive glass, so don’t be surprised to see Yale pull off an upset away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.
2. Makai Mason is a name to learn. The Yale sophomore led all scorers on Thursday with 31 points in the Bulldogs’ win after shooting 9-of-18 from the field. Mason, along with Sears, led Yale in scoring this year at 15.8 points per game and although he didn’t shoot it well from outside today (2-of-8), he converted 38.4 percent of his threes this season. Mason has proven that he can compete against high-major opponents despite not being recruited in part because he quit playing AAU basketball in high school. For academic reasons, of course. He told the media on Wednesday not to be surprised by how athletic the Bulldogs are, and he was right.
3. The Big 12’s NCAA Tournament woes continue. After making two Elite Eights in 2010 and 2012 and a Sweet Sixteen in 2014, the Bears have suffered early exits from the NCAA Tournament the past two seasons. It was Georgia State’s R.J. Hunter last year who knocked the Bears out with a late three-pointer, and despite all of the motivation from that first round exit, they’re going home early again. Baylor has put together a number of impressive Big 12 seasons recently, but that success hasn’t translated into the NCAA Tournament.

Star of the Game: Makai Mason. His 31 points fueled the upset and dazzled the crowd plenty of times during the first half with his impressive handle. “I felt in the zone,” he said. Did he ever!

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Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCEastregion, @RTCMWregion,@RTCSouthregion and @RTCWestregion.

Three Key Takeaways.

Kevin Ollie Improves to 7-0 in the NCAA Tournament (USA Today Images)

1. Connecticut’s great second half effort led the Huskies to victory. Sluggish and listless are two ways one could describe Connecticut’s first half effort. The Huskies found themselves down 36-27 at the break, and it appeared there was a chance Colorado might run them right out of the gym. That turned out to not be the case, though, as Kevin Ollie’s group came out in the second half firing on all cylinders. The Huskies used a 20-10 run to start the half and grabbed their first lead at the 11:39 mark — from there, they never looked back. While Connecticut certainly received some dynamite offensive performances, it cranked its defensive intensity up several notches and held the Buffaloes to just 32 second half points. The Huskies have been a bit of an enigmatic bunch this season, so it will be interesting to see if they can translate today’s second half success to its next game on Saturday.
2. Colorado did not do itself any favors from the free throw line. The Buffaloes led by as many as 11 in the first half and held a nine-point lead at halftime. Those leads could have been greater had they turned in a better performance from the free throw line. Colorado finished just 19-of-30 from the stripe, and at one point was just 8-of-17 from there. Leaving those extra points at the line allowed Connecticut to stay in striking distance, eventually grab the lead, and finally take home the victory. Free throw shooting is important each and every March, and that was well on display this afternoon.
3. Kevin Ollie remains undefeated in the NCAA Tournament. There were certainly some naysayers when Kevin Ollie took over for a retiring Jim Calhoun in fall 2012, but the first four seasons of returns have been quite positive. The Huskies of course won all six of their games in the 2014 NCAA Tournament on their way to the national title. After a one-year hiatus from the NCAA Tournament, Connecticut got back on the winning track Thursday in its return to March Madness. Can Kevin Ollie improve on his sterling 7-0 tournament record? We shall see on Saturday.

Player of the Game. Rodney Purvis, Connecticut. The junior guard led Connecticut’s second half explosion, finishing with a team-high 19 points and hitting two three-pointers that really gave the Huskies some much-needed breathing room. Backcourt play will be key if Connecticut wants to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, so the strong play of Purvis and fellow guard Daniel Hamilton (17 points on 6-of-12 shooting) was certainly a good sign for Huskies fans.

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Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCEastregion, @RTCMWregion,@RTCSouthregion and @RTCWestregion.

Three Key Takeaways.

Iowa State Advances Over Iona in a Fun-n-Gun Game (USA Today Images)

1. Lack of Depth A Positive. Assuming you can stay healthy and out of foul trouble, any reasonably well-conditioned team is not going to get tired in a tournament with three-minute timeouts, coach’s timeouts, longer halftimes and an assortment of monitor reviews. So if you’ve got five guys who are clearly better than the rest of your guys, why not play them all the time? Clearly Steve Prohm buys into this theory. Only three teams in the nation this year play their bench fewer minutes than Iowa State, and that’s a good thing. That means more minutes for guys like Georges Niang, Monte Morris, Abdel Nader, Matt Thomas and Jameel McKay, all of whom have averaged double figures this year and did so again today. In today’s up-tempo game (78 possessions), with the Cyclones maintaining a solid lead throughout, the bench earned a total of 29 minutes resulting in two points. Going forward, however, expect the Cyclones to gain an advantage by getting their best guys the most possible run.
2. Die By The Three. Coming into the game, Iona was shooting 44.2 percent of its field goal attempts from three-point range, good for 20th in the nation, knocking them in at a 37.2 percent rate (57th in the nation). Three guys (A.J. English, Isaiah Williams and Deyshonee Much) had made at least 77 three-pointers coming into today, even if most of those were in tiny MAAC gyms in front of a few thousand fans. In the Pepsi Center today on a national stage, the Gaels shot just 2-of-13 from three in the first half in allowing a 12-point deficit. In the second half, things were a little better (5-of-11), but the damage had already been done.
3. A Better Version Of Themselves. Iowa State is a great offensive team (third in the nation in offensive efficiency) that likes to play uptempo (53rd in tempo). Iona is built around its ability to get up and down the court (45th in tempo) and score efficiently (68th in offensivce efficiency). But in this game, it was just a matter of the Cyclones having bigger and better players doing the same types of things. Iona coach Tim Cluess put it simply: “When you play teams at this level, they’re going to have guys who are bigger, stronger and better playing basketball.” For Iona to have had a great chance in this round, they were going to have to play a team with a different style. Throw in struggles from three and an inability to get to the line, and Iowa State moves on.

Star of the Game.  Georges Niang. Iowa State’s senior All-American does everything for the Cyclones, and today was no different as he led all scorers with 28 points. Early in the second half, when the Cyclones had turned it over on three consecutive possessions against the press leading to transition baskets, it was Niang’s open court ability to handle the ball that settled Iowa State down and forced Iona out of its press.

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Rush the Court will be providing wall-to-wall coverage of each of the NCAA Tournament from each of the 13 sites this year. Follow our NCAA Tourney specific Twitter accounts at @RTCEastregion, @RTCMWregion,@RTCSouthregion and @RTCWestregion.

Three Key Takeaways.

Kellen Dunham hit five threes and scored 23 points to lead Butler past Texas Tech. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

1. Classic NCAA #8-#9 Game (for about 30 minutes). As expected, this was a back and forth affair between two evenly matched teams for most of the game. The key stretch turned out to be a personal 8-0 spurt by Bulldogs forward Kelan Martin with around eight minutes to go. With the score tied at 48, the sophomore hit consecutive threes to force a Texas Tech timeout. On the next possession, Martin turned a midcourt steal into a breakaway dunk to give Butler some breathing room. The Red Raiders could get no closer than three points the rest of the way.
2. Butler was better equipped to win a physical game. Perhaps it’s their Big East pedigree, but the Bulldogs looked much more comfortable when push came to shove (literally). Things got a little chippy about halfway through the second half right before Butler took control of things. At that point in the game, Texas Tech appeared to be knocked back by Butler’s physicality on defense. The Bulldogs also won the rebound battle with a +6 margin. Texas Tech finished with only six offensive boards, including none in the first half.
3. Texas Tech didn’t win the free throw game. Coming into the game, the Red Raiders ranked in the nation’s top 33 in both free throw percentage and free throw attempt rate. But credit goes to the Bulldogs’ defense for not putting the Red Raiders on the line much at all today. Texas Tech was only 2-of-3 from the stripe in the first half, and finished the game with just nine attempts (converting four). The Red Raiders got good production off the bench with 30 points from reserves, including 18 from senior Devaugntah Williams. Tubby Smith will only lose two players from this year’s surprising NCAA squad, so brighter days should be ahead for Texas Tech.

Star of the Game.  Kellen Dunham, Butler. Dunham was the one constant for his team in both halves. The senior scored 13 in the first half to keep the Bulldogs close — Roosevelt Jones and Kelan Martin combined for only a single point in the first stanza. Dunham finished with 23 points and made 5-of-9 from three-point range.

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Rush the Court will provide immediate reactions to each of the 63 NCAA Tournament games from the First Round to the Championship.

Three Key Takeaways:

Brandon Ingram goes up for a layup during the first half versus UNC-Wilmington. (Credit: AP / Charles Krupa)

1. Brandon Ingram has arrived. For much of the season, college basketball’s focus has understandably been on the incredible number of talented seniors in the sport. Duke’s Brandon Ingram is ready to take back some of that attention. Ingram has a legitimate shot to overtake LSU’s Ben Simmons as the #1 pick in June’s NBA Draft (with Simmons sitting at home during the NCAA Tournament), and he showed why this afternoon against the Seahawks. Ingram scored 20 points and displayed an array of dribble moves that weren’t in his arsenal even back in November. If the Blue Devils can put together a strong NCAA Tournament run this month, Ingram will remind everyone that the one-and-dones aren’t going away that easily.
2. Grayson Allen needs to find his shooting stroke. Allen finished with 23 points on 12 shots, but he was just 4-of-12 from the field today against UNC-Wilmington after making 41.7 percent on the season. Allen was quick enough to beat the Seahawks’ guards off the bounce, but that likely won’t hold for the remainder of the Tournament as more talented opponents are tabbed to defend the sophomore guard. The Blue Devils will need to Allen to find his range to make the best of March.
3. Duke’s defensive woes aren’t going anywhere. The Blue Devils allowed 85 points to the 75th best offense in the country, as UNC-Wilmington scored 1.15 points per possession. This is a concern given that the Seahawks only created 10 turnovers, one of their primary methods of producing points this season. UNCW also made 11 three-pointers and shot 44.1 percent from the field, with an enormous 79 of their points coming in the half-court. If Duke makes that run, it probably won’t be a product of its defense.

Star of the Game: Marshall Plumlee. Ingram showed why he’s NBA-ready, but Plumlee’s presence changed the game for the Blue Devils. The senior blocked two shots and altered a few more during Duke’s 16-2 run to open the second half. Plumlee delivered a huge all-around effort, scoring a career-high 23 points, grabbing eight rebounds, and blocking three shots before fouling out with 2:01 remaining. Marshall Plumlee cares not for your Cinderellas.

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The first day of March Madness can be a hectic whirlwind of excitement, disappointment and drama. For many of us, it will involve multiple TVs, another screen to stream additional games, trips to a bar or party, and far less sleep than we’re used to. Like most things, this big day of days can move a little smoother with some planning. I’ve channelled my inner boy scout and prepped ahead for the excitement to come, laying out an opening day strategy for surviving and thriving in the Madness. (Note: all times eastern)

Everyone is Ready: Let’s Tip the Madness Off (USA Today Images)

• 12:15 PM: Start, as everyone will, with Duke-UNC Wilmington (on CBS). If you’re stuck at work, take your lunch break right after noon and head somewhere with a TV. Enjoy as much as you can before you need head back to the office and “work” for the rest of the day. The rest of these plans will be more directed to those, like me, willing to sacrifice a vacation day or two to watch NCAA Tournament basketball. To my cubicle-bound friends, godspeed. Only answer e-mails that you absolutely need to. Utilize a second screen. When the clock his 5:01, sprint home.
• 12:40 PM: If the Duke lead is in double figures at this point, switch over to TruTV- well, wait a second.
• 12:41 PM: Take two minutes trying to figure out what channel TruTV is on.
• 12:43 PM: Perfect. Now if the Duke lead is in double figures, switch over to TruTV for the start of Texas Tech and Butler. If UNCW is keeping it close or even leading, stick with that game until halftime. The Seahawks are feisty, but much more so if they stay within striking distance.
• 1:30 PM: Make sure you’re on TNT at the bottom of the next hour. It’s Bill Raftery’s first game of the Tournament and you can’t miss him spouting “Jim Nantz, Grant Hill, Colorado goes…MANTOMAN” to start the game. This moment is appointment TV.
• 2:10 PM: The first game of the day will be drawing to a conclusion. Either a Duke rout or a possible upset. If the latter, no worries. The other two games are #8 vs. #9 match-ups. Both should be competitive.
• 2:45 PM: Iowa State and Iona tipped off at 2:00 PM, and it could be the day’s most exciting game. The Cyclones scored the fewest percentage of points at the foul line in the nation and allowed the second fewest percentage of points on free throws. Iona’s free throw rates are below average as well, so expect up and down, non-stop action.

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Here’s a dirty little secret about March Madness. The difference between a bad bracket and a good bracket is skill, but the difference between a good bracket and a great bracket is luck. Anyone who has won their pool has gotten lucky. A lot of these games are basically coin flips or won by buzzer-beaters, and nobody can predict that kind of thing. You just have to hope enough of those breaks go in your favor. Where you can distance yourself from your competition, though, is in the 60-40 or 55-45 games. If you can figure out which team has a slight advantage and pick enough of those teams with those slight advantages, odds are something will break your way one of these years. That is the purpose of these 68 Facts, to help isolate some favorable and unfavorable matchups going into the NCAA Tournament. Hopefully they will help your bracket — or at least help you justify your bracket to yourself, which is debatably more important anyway. Let’s get to it.

March is Here (USA Today Images)

1. California is 18-0 at home and 5-10 on the road or at neutral sites.

2. Providence’s Kris Dunn hasn’t looked like himself lately, scoring single-figures in three of his last six games, after having just two such outputs in his first 25 games.

3. Kentucky has the lowest defensive assist percentage in the country. Indiana gets assists on an above-average proportion of its field goals.

4. Of Dayton’s seven losses, five have come when one of the Flyers’ three best players, Charles Cooke, Dyshawn Pierre and Kendall Pollard, was not playing. All three are healthy and eligible for the NCAA Tournament.

5. Cal State Bakersfield’s 25th-most efficient defense is anchored by the 16th-best steal rate in the nation. Oklahoma surrenders steals at a rate that is 300th-best in the country.

6. Iowa had the nation’s fifth-best offense through 22 games. In the last nine games, accompanied with a record of 3-6, the Hawkeyes were at the D-I average.

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With five NCAA Tournament teams seeded anywhere from #2 to a #9, the expectations for the Big East this season are all over the map. Let’s take a look at the single biggest question surrounding the postseason success of each program heading into the first weekend.

Is this the year Jay Wright’s group finally makes another run? (Getty)

Villanova: Can the Wildcats finally break through to the Sweet Sixteen? This narrative has seemingly lasted forever. After a number of exits in the Second Round, many pundits are writing off Jay Wright‘s squad. The reasons are all over the place: a lack of true NBA-level talent; a lack of interior depth; limited athleticism; over-reliance on the three-pointer. But what the narrative fails to capture is that the team’s dynamic continues to evolve with each passing year — players gain experience, develop new skill sets and build cohesion. People desperately wanted to craft the three-point shooting storyline around this year’s team but it simply hasn’t held up. Yes, Villanova shoots threes, but they are rarely contested. They are simply a manifestation of an offense where the primary options are to use Josh Hart in the lane or Daniel Ochefu on the low block. Iowa isn’t the type of team to give Villanova problems, nor is an undersized and poor-shooting Temple team. Expect the narrative to finally unwind this March.

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The spectacular odds of correctly predicting a perfect bracket during the NCAA Tournament has been well-documented over the years. Put simply, it is next to impossible. It is incredibly tough to predict the idiosyncrasies of 18-22 year olds during a 40-minute game multiplied 63 times, and any number of scenarios can tilt the game toward the underdog. In order to evaluate each Big Ten team’s chances of making it to the Final Four, it is crucial to understand what kinds of matchups can hurt them. Below, we examine scenarios that could be an Achilles Heel for Michigan State, Indiana and Purdue in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Michigan State will be in trouble if Bryn Forbes slumps from beyond the arc. (AP)

• Cutting Bryn Forbes out of Michigan State’s offense. At this juncture of the season, it is safe to assume that Denzel Valentine cannot be stopped in the pick-and-roll. A defense has to cover him no matter where he roams, but it can choose where to focus its help defense. Either it lets Matt Costello cut through the paint for easy layups or it allows Bryn Forbes to nail daggers from beyond the arc. A hot Forbes — currently shooting a whopping 48 percent from three-point range — takes Michigan State’s offense to a different level and allows Valentine to save his offense for crunch time. Costello (10.4 PPG) isn’t used to high levels of production so it is better to force him to carry the burden.

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Preseason rankings. Irrelevant in professional sports, but weirdly important in college basketball. I have shown in the past that rankings released before a single game has been played overvalue previous year’s NCAA Tournament success, so they clearly aren’t perfect. The odd wrinkle is that they also are just as predictive as pre-tournament rankings in determining who will make the Final Four. Given that the First Round starts tomorrow, I decided to look more closely into just how important preseason rankings are by looking at whether teams that outperform their preseason expectations regress in the NCAA Tournament. To do this, I reviewed all of the teams since 2007 that were unranked in the preseason and were ranked in the polls just before the NCAA Tournament (i.e., teams that performed better than expected during the regular season). In order to gauge how a team should do in the Big Dance, I borrowed Neil Payne’s win expectation chart by seed listed in this very interesting article. I then tested whether the teams that fit my definition for outperforming expectations did better or worse relative to win expectations than the rest of the field.

Kemba Walker and UConn were one of the few programs to buck statistical trends. (Getty)

Here are the results.

The tested group of over-performers did in fact do worse in the NCAA Tournament than everyone else, and the difference is statistically significant. It should also be noted that an examination of the converse group — preseason ranked teams finishing the regular season unranked — produced no difference between win expectation by seed and actual wins. For some frame of reference, there are seven teams this year that have gone from unranked in the preseason to ranked now. That group is listed below. Read the rest of this entry »