Rush The Court

University of Texas (7, East)

vs. Minnesota (10)
Thursday, March 19, 2009, 7:20 ET tip

Vegas Line: TX -5.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Austin, TX

Conference: Big 12 (at-large bid)

Coach: Rick Barnes, 265 W, 102 L

08-09 Record: 22-11 (9-7 B12)

Last 12 Games: 7-5

Best Win: (three-way tie) vs UCLA (12/4), n-Villanova at MSG (12/9), vs Oklahoma (2/21)

Worst Loss: 61-67 at Arkansas, (1/6)

Off. Efficiency Rating: 110.7 (47^th)

Def. Efficiency Rating: 91.7 (29^th)

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Dexter Pittman (Junior Center) – 117.3 ORtg, 6.7 FC/40, .619 2ptFG%, 17.9 OR%, 18.0 DR%
Unsung Hero: Dogus Balbay (Freshman PG) – 26.6 Asst Rate, 2.6 STL%, 100% improvement in TX halfcourt offense when he emerged as the team leader at PG
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Damion James (late 1^st Rd, early 2^nd)
Key Injuries: None
Depth: 28.4% bench minutes
Achilles Heel: 32.1% 3ptFG shooting
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Pittman and Balbay are 30+ minute per game players
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Foul trouble sends Pittman or Damion James to the bench for any extended amount of time.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2007, South Regional Finalists (L, Memphis)
Streak 11 years
Best NCAA Finish: 2003, National Semifinalists (L, Syracuse)

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None with this hoops team, but appropriately enough for a school disproportionately obsessed with its football, WR Roy Williams and NT Sean Rogers both “starred” for hapless Lions teams in Detroit, and Pro Bowl NT Casey Hampton won his first Super Bowl ring with the Pittsburgh Steelers at Ford Field.
Distance to First Round Site: 1,298 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: The nation’s largest university has too many to name
School Wishes It Could Forget: The tragic Charles Whitman shooting
Prediction: The ‘Horns first round contest against Minnesota isn’t being appreciated for the interesting match ups the two teams provide. I’ll be watching how officials not used to Dexter Pittman officiate him with regards to fouls. If he picks up chippies, Texas is one and done. If he’s out there for 30 minutes, the Longhorns are a legitimate threat to beat anyone in the East.

Preview written by… Peter Bean, Burnt Orange Nation

Wake Forest (#4, Midwest, Miami pod)

vs. Cleveland St. (#13)
Friday, 3/20 at 9:40pm.

Vegas Line: Wake Forest -6

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Winston-Salem, NC
Conference: ACC, at-large
Coach: Dino Gaudio, hired 2007.  Record at WFU = 41-19.
08-09 Record: 24-6 (11-6)
Last 12 Games: 7-5
Best Win: vs. UNC, 92-89, on 1/11
Worst Loss: @ Miami,  52-79, on 2/4.
Off. Efficiency Rating: 111.8 (14)
Def. Efficiency Rating: 89.4 (40)

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Jeff Teague, 19/3/4 assts/2 stls on 49/45/82% shooting; James Johnson, 15/9 on 53% shooting.
Unsung Hero: Chas McFarland – 9/6 on 53% shooting.
Potential NBA Draft Pick: Teague, #12 (2009), Johnson, #29 (2009), Al-Farouq Aminu, #9 (2009).
Key Injuries: None.
Depth: 29.6% mins (204th nationally).
Achilles Heel: Three-point shooting.  Wake shoots 31.7% from behind the arc, 275th best in the nation.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: They play with focus and aggression.  This team has a tendency to only get up for the “big” games.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: They play unfocused and get caught up in a three-point shooting contest.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2005; lost to West Virginia in the Second Round.
Streak: 1.
Best NCAA Finish: Final Four in 1963.
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): -0.40

Other
Distance to First Round Site: 810 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: Producing NBA All-Stars without making the Final Four (T. Duncan, J. Howard, C. Paul).
School Wishes It Could Forget: Mike Gansey, Jamal Mashburn, the Stanford frontline, Butler.
Prediction: If Wake gets by Cleveland St., a big “if,” they have enough NBA-quality talent to beat anybody in the field.  The problem is focus and chemistry, and we’re not convinced that they have each other’s best interests in mind.  Another WFU flameout like their forebears is in the cards.

Preview written by Rush The Court.

Washington (#4, West, Portland pod)

vs Mississippi State (#13)
Thur., 3/19 at 5 pm
Vegas line:  -6

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile
Location: Seattle, Washington
Conference: Pac-10, at-large.
Coach: Lorenzo Romar, hired 2002.  Record at UW = 144-80
08-09 Record: 25-8 (14-4)
Last 12 Games: 9-3
Best Win: at Arizona State, 84-71, on 1/31/09.
Worst Loss: at Portland, 74-80, on 11/15/08.
Off. Efficiency Rating: 112.1 (37th)
Def. Efficiency Rating: 88.7 (11th)

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Isaiah Thomas (15.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.5 apg) and Jon Brockman (14.9 ppg and 11.2 rpg).
Unsung Hero: Quincy Pondexter (11.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg)
Potential NBA Draft Pick: None listed at nbadraft.net, but Thomas is already generating talk.
Key Injuries: No significant injuries.
Depth: 31.2% (162nd nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Taking care of the ball.  UW averages 14.7 TO per game, ranking 252nd nationally.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: They can shoot a little better.  The Huskies shoot 45.9% from the field including 34.1% from three (respectively 69th and 166th in the nation), but they’ll need a little improvement on that to go deep.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: They get outrebounded.  They average 37.7 rebounds/game, 5th in the nation.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2006; lost to Connecticut in the Sweet 16.
Streak: One year.
Best NCAA Finish: National semifinalist in 1953, lost to Kansas.  Beat LSU in consolation game for 3rd.
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): n/a

Other
Distance to First Round Site: 175 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: The med school is ranked #1 in Primary Care and the nursing school has been ranked #1 since 1984.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Recent football woes — last winning season was 2002.
Prediction: Assuming Jarvis Varnado doesn’t block everything in their first round game, Washington matches up well with all three teams in its 16th of the bracket, so a trip to the Sweet 16 seems likely.
Major RTC stories: Pac-10 Wrapup and Tourney Preview

Preview written by Rush The Court.

Utah (#5, Midwest, Miami pod)

vs Arizona (#12)
Fri., 3/20 at 7:10 pm
Vegas line:  -1

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
Conference: Mountain West, automatic.
Coach: Jim Boylen, hired 2007.  Record at UU = 42-24
08-09 Record: 24-9 (12-4)
Last 12 Games: 10-2, won 4.
Best Win: vs Gonzaga, 66-65, on 12/31/08.
Worst Loss: Southwest Baptist (Div. 2), 79-80, on 11/15/08.
Off. Efficiency Rating: 110.5 (50th)
Def. Efficiency Rating: 90.7 (21st)

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Luke Nevill (16.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg)
Unsung Hero: Luka Drca – 7.8 ppg and he leads team in assists (3.5 apg).
Potential NBA Draft Pick: Luke Nevill is currently listed at 60th (final pick of 2nd round) on mock draft at nbadraft.net.
Key Injuries: No significant injuries.
Depth: 21.8% (325th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Aggression on defense.  UU forces opponents to only 10.4 turnovers/game, which is 338th of 341 D1 teams nationally.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: They shoot like they have been and they get to the line.  The Utes led the MWC in every shooting category, including a 78.2 FT%, which ranks third in the nation.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Nevill is left to do all of the work.  The supporting cast has to make its presence felt and make Arizona guard five people instead of one.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2005; lost to Kentucky in the Sweet 16.
Streak: One year.
Best NCAA Finish: National Champion in 1944.
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.26

Other
Distance to First Round Site: 2539 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: Playing host to many events in the 2002 Winter Olympics; renowned for contributions to the field of genetics/genealogy.
School Wishes It Could Forget: The University of Kentucky, to whom the Utes have lost a total of SIX TIMES in the NCAA Tournament, including the 1998 title game AND the preceding two tournaments in the Elite 8 and Sweet 16, respectively.  Also, two physicists there said they had achieved cold fusion back in 1989, but were quickly discredited.
Prediction: People will be salivating to pick Arizona as a 12 upsetting a 5 largely because they haven’t heard much about Utah this year.  But the Utes look like they’re peaking at the right time and should prevail at least in the first round in a great matchup.  If they continue to shoot well, the sky’s the limit after that.

Preview written by Rush The Court.

Maryland (#10, West, Kansas City pod)
Vs. California (#7)
Thurs., 3/19 at 2:55 PM
Vegas Line: Pick ‘em

General Profile
Location: College Park, MD
Conference: ACC, At-Large
Coach: Gary Williams, 417-228 at Maryland, 622-356 overall
08-09 Record: 20-13, 7-9
Last 12 Games: 6-6
Best Win: Defeated UNC, 88-85 on February 21st
Worst Loss: Lost to Morgan State, 66-65 on January 7th (Ed. Note: We think the 41-point loss at Duke on January 24th may have been just as bad.)
Off. Efficiency Rating: 108.2; 72nd
Def. Efficiency Rating: 93.5; 47th

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Greivis Vasquez (17.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 5.1 APG)
Unsung Hero: C Dave Neal (8.3 ppg, 39% 3pt shooter)
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Greivis Vasquez (58th in 2010)
Key Injuries: PF/C Jerome Burney, out for season
Depth: 28.3% (233rd nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Lack of size. Maryland doesn’t have anyone on the team bigger than 6′7″. The Terps’ starting center is 6′6″ and can’t jump. If a team has good big men, they can have some great games. They’ve been able to neutralize by extensive use of zone defense, but it can only do so much.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Greivis Vasquez gets hot and someone else (Eric Hayes, Landon Milbourne, or Sean Mosley) can step up and provide another consistent offensive option.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: They can’t defend in the post or get any rebounds. That’s caused quite a few losses this year already.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2007. Lost to Butler in the second round.
Streak: N/A
Best NCAA Finish: National Champion (2002)
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.28. On average, Maryland wins 0.28 more games per year than would be expected for their seed based on historical standards.

Other
Six Degrees to Detroit: Two famous Terrapins (Juan Dixon and Joe Smith) have played for the Detroit Pistons in recent years, but the Terrapin with the greatest success in Detroit was Gene Shue. Shue was a 5-time All-Star as a Piston including a 1st team All-NBA selection and a 2nd team All-NBA selection.
Distance to First Round Site: 1,072 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: On the field/court, Maryland’s renowned for having a great all-around athletic program – soccer, lacrosse, field hockey, football, basketball, and even competitive cheer all consistently compete at the highest levels. Outside of the playing field, Maryland grads are responsible for Curb Your Enthusiasm and Seinfeld (Larry David), the Muppets (Jim Henson), 30 Rock (Beth McCarthy), The Boondocks (Aaron McGruder), The Wire (David Simon), Outback Steakhouse (Robert Basham), SIRIUS Radio (Robert Briskman), and Under Armor (Kevin Plank). Oh, yeah, and Google, too (Sergey Brin).
School Wishes It Could Forget: Several things, unfortunately. First, there was the near-death sentence punishment passed down by the NCAA, which set the program back several years. There was also the massive riots after the Terps won the natty in 2002 which included burning couches and massive crowds throughout the streets. (Ed. Note: Len Bias too.)
Prediction: I have Maryland winning over Cal, simply because Cal’s size advantage isn’t nearly as pronounced as some of the teams Maryland has played recently. Having a team to go eye-to-eye would be quite a change. Memphis just has too much athleticism, though, and will probably have a chip on their shoulder due to the seeding.
Major RTC stories: Gary Williams Hates Graduation, Maryland Responds, Make Your Case: Maryland Terrapins, Daily Obituaries: 03.08.09 (oops), More Intrigue at Maryland, Trouble in College Park,

Preview written by “bbroman” of Testudo Times.

Xavier University (#4, East, Boise pod)

vs Portland State (#13)
Fri., 3/20 at 7:25 pm
Vegas line:  +10.5

General Profile
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Conference: Atlantic 10, at-large.
Coach: Sean Miller, hired 2004.  Record at XU = 118-48
08-09 Record: 25-7 (12-4)
Last 12 Games: 7-5
Best Win: vs Memphis, 63-58, on 11/28/08.
Worst Loss: at Charlotte, 60-65, on 2/19/09.
Off. Efficiency Rating: 111.3 (44th)
Def. Efficiency Rating: 90.4 (18th)

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): B.J. Raymond (14.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg)
Unsung Hero: Dante’ Jackson – leads team in assists (2.8 apg) and steals (1.2 spg)
Potential NBA Draft Pick: n/a
Key Injuries: No significant injuries.
Depth: 31.4% (153th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Care of the basketball.  XU averages 14.7 TO per game, ranking 252nd nationally.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: They stay focused.  XU has a bad habit of taking a while to wake up for games.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: The threes aren’t falling.  Xavier shoots 39.9% from beyond the arc, which is 13th in the nation.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2008; lost to UCLA in an Elite 8 game, 57-76.
Streak: Four years.
Best NCAA Finish: The Elite 8 in 2004 and 2008.
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.07

Other
Distance to First Round Site: 1948 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: Xavier University graduates 94.7% of its athletes (all sports), which is third in the nation.  Every basketball player since 1985 has graduated.  The school’s name before it was changed — The Athenaeum.
School Wishes It Could Forget: That 3-point loss to Duke in the Elite 8 in 2004.
Prediction: Xavier has somehow stayed underneath the national radar most of the year, so they’ll be a popular pick to be upset in the first round; but in a 4 vs 13 game it’s hard not to pick a team that beat both Missouri and Memphis this season.
Major RTC stories: RTC Live: Atlantic 10 Tournament

Preview written by Rush The Court.

Texas A&M (#9, South, Miami pod)
Vs. BYU (#8)
Thurs., 3/19 at 12:30 PM
Vegas Line: Texas A&M, +2

General Profile
Location: College Station, TX
Conference: Big 12, At-Large
Coach: Mark Turgeon, 48-20
08-09 Record: 23-9, 9-7
Last 12 Games: 8-4
Best Win: Defeated Missouri, 96-86 on March 7th
Worst Loss: Lost to Texas Tech, 88-83 in the Big 12 tournament on March 11th
Off. Efficiency Rating: 112.2, 36th
Def. Efficiency Rating:96.6, 79th

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Josh Carter (14.1 PPG and 4.5 RPG) and Chinemelu Elonu (10.1 PPG on 66.7% FG and 7.4 RPG)
Unsung Hero: Donald Sloan (11.7 PPG and 3.0 APG)
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Elonu (54th in 2010). Carter is listed as late second round to undrafted in 2009 by ESPN.
Key Injuries: None
Depth: 31.2% (158th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Inconsistency. Their best win of the year was followed by their worst loss of the year (their most recent game)
Will Make a Deep Run if…: They play under control like they did last year when they beat BYU in the first round.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: They play impatiently and take bad shots.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2008; lost to UCLA in the 2nd round (on a controversial play)
Streak: 4th consecutive year
Best NCAA Finish: Final 4 (1969)
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): Not enough data (Minimum 8 bids during this period)

Other
Six Degrees to Detroit: San Antonio Spurs GM R.C. Buford played basketball at Texas A&M. In 2005, his Spurs team defeated the Detroit Pistons in one of the ugliest NBA Finals series in recent years.
Distance to First Round Site: 1,593 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: Kyle Field (where the football team) is the home of the famed “12th Man” and has been consistently ranked as one of the top places to watch a football game even if the on-field product is not that great.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Its hideous court design.
Prediction: Repeat of last year. Beat BYU in the first round and then lose to a Final 4 team in the 2nd round although this time without the controversy.
Major RTC stories: Pics of the Night

Preview written by Rush the Court

Temple (#11, South, Miami pod)
Vs. Arizona State (#6)
Fri., 3/20 at 2:45 PM
Vegas Line: Temple, +5

General Profile
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Conference: Atlantic-10, Automatic bid
Coach: Fran Dunphy, 55-42
08-09 Record: 22-11, 11-5 in the Atlantic-10
Last 12 Games: 10-2 including 5 straight wins
Best Win: Defeated Xavier 55-53 in the Atlantic 10 tournament on March 13th
Worst Loss: At Long Beach State 76-71 on December 22nd
Off. Efficiency Rating: 108.6, 68th
Def. Efficiency Rating: 92.6, 40th

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Dionte Christmas (19.2 PPG and 5.8 RPG) and Lavoy Allen (10.9 PPG and 8.9 RPG)
Unsung Hero: Ryan Brooks (10.7 PPG and 3.8 RPG)
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Christmas (34th in 2009)
Key Injuries: None
Depth: 24.7% (306th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: The Owls have no depth (or Dunphy chooses not to utilize it).
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Christmas can outplay Arizona State’s star James Harden.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: If Christmas is having an off-night.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2008; lost to Michigan State in the 1st round
Streak: 2nd straight year
Best NCAA Finish: Third place (1944, 1956, and 1958)
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.24. On average the Owls win 0.24 more games per year than they would be expected to based on the historical performance of teams with a similar seed.

Other
Six Degrees to Detroit: Mike Jarmoluk, who played football at Temple, was drafted by the Detroit Lions and ended up making a Pro Bowl. Unfortunately for Lions, he never played for them as he ended up playing the Eagles and made the Pro Bowl in 1951.
Distance to First Round Site: 1,195 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: Hall of Fame coach John Chaney, who was just as legendary for his ability to win as his fiery demeanor.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Chaney ordering a “hit” on St. Joseph’s John Bryant.
Prediction: The Owls will hang around for the first half against the Sun Devils before Harden and Jeff Pendergraph pull away for a double-digit victory.
Major RTC stories: N/A

Preview written by Rush the Court

Virginia Commonwealth University (#11, East, Philadelphia pod)

vs UCLA (#6)
Thurs., 3/19 at about 10 pm
Vegas Line:  +7.5

General Profile
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Conference: Colonial, automatic
Coach: Anthony Grant, hired 2006.  Record at VCU = 76-24
08-09 Record: 24-9 (14-4)
Last 12 Games: 9-3 (won 5)
Best Win: George mason, 76-71, on 1/24/09.
Worst Loss: Delaware, 79-81, on 1/3/09.
Off. Efficiency Rating: 108.0 (74th)
Def. Efficiency Rating: 93.6 (49th)

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Eric Maynor (22.4 ppg, 6.2 apg, 1.7 spg)
Unsung Hero: Larry Sanders (11.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.7 blocks/g).  Not unsung as much as it is he just plays behind Maynor.
Potential NBA Draft Pick: Maynor is projected as a lottery pick (14th) at nbadraft.net.
Key Injuries: No significant injuries.
Depth: 28.4% (229th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Rebounding.  VCU pulls 30.9 rpg, which is 209th nationally.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: They can get Maynor his touches and let him work.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: They don’t exercise good shot selection.  The Rams shoot 43.6% which is 55th nationally, but they can’t be intimidated by the cameras and their first-round opponent in UCLA.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2007; beat Duke in R1 and then lost to Pittsburgh in R2 in overtime.
Streak: One year.
Best NCAA Finish: 1-1 in 1983, 1984, 1985, and 2007.
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): n/a

Other
Distance to First Round Site: 243 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: Tony Parker would be proud, since VCU has the largest French film festival in the US.  Notable alums include Patch Adams MD, actor Stephen Furst (aka Flounder) and Dave Matthews Band bassist Stefan Lessard.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Wrongly giving an undergrad degree to a former Richmond police chief after he only earned 6 credits from the school; its “interesting” dealings with Phillip Morris USA.
Prediction: With a star player like Maynor, anything is possible.  You’d have to pick UCLA to get past the Rams in the first round but I can’t say an upset would surprise me or if Maynor positioned himself as this year’s Stephen Curry.
Major RTC stories:  RTC Live: CAA Tournament, CAA Tourney Preview

Preview written by Rush The Court.

Dayton (#11, Midwest, Minneapolis pod)

vs. West Virginia (#6)
March 20th at 3:00 P.M.

Vegas Line: WVU -8.5
General Profile

Location: Dayton, OH
Conference: Atlantic 10, at-large bid
Coach: Brian Gregory, 124-67
08-09 Record: 26-7 (11-5)
Last 12 Games: 7-5
Best Win: Xavier, 71-58 (2/11)
Worst Loss: @ Charlotte, 79-66 (2/8)
Off. Efficiency Rating: 142
Def. Efficiency Rating: 39

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Chris Wright (12.9 ppg, 6.5 rpg,
Unsung Hero: Charles Little (8.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 50% field goal percentage)
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Chris Wright, late first to early second round
Key Injuries: Rob Lowery (knee)
Depth: 40.2% mins (14th in nation)
Achilles Heel: Poor perimeter shooting
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Can create easy buckets off turnovers and hold teams in the 60s
Will Make an Early Exit if…: West Virginia pulls out their 1-3-1 zone and the Flyers can’t shoot over it or create dribble penetration to break it

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2004, first round loss to DePaul
Streak: 1
Best NCAA Finish: 1967, NCAA runner-up
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): n/a

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: I drove there once. Never again. We also have a freshman named Paul Williams from Detroit Renaissance High School.
Distance to First Round Site: 704 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: Former SportsCenter anchor Dan Patrick went to UD and regularly name-checks the Flyers on his radio show.
School Wishes It Could Forget: The Jim O’Brien years. How that man continues to fail upwards is beyond me.
Prediction: I think the Flyers match up well against West Virginia. They’re more talented, but in many ways a mirror image of the Flyers. I refuse to predict a loss in the first round, so I’m going with an upset over West Virginia and bowing out honorably to Kansas on Sunday.

Report written by… Flyers Fanhouse

LSU (#8 seed, South region, Greensboro pod)

vs. Butler (#9 seed)
12:20 p.m. ET – 3/19/09

Vegas Line: LSU -2.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Conference: Southeastern, at-large
Coach: Trent Johnson, 26-7 for 78.8%
08-09 Record: 26-7, 13-3
Last 12 Games: 9-3
Best Win: 79-73, @ Tennessee, 1-28-09
Worst Loss: 59-65, @ Alabama, 1-11-09
Off. Efficiency Rating: 110.3; #53
Def. Efficiency Rating: 94.1; #53)

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Marcus Thornton – junior guard – 20.7ppg…2nd in SEC – 5.5rpg…23rd in SEC – 46.7% FG…9th in SEC and 2nd amongst guards – 74.0% FT…10th in SEC – 1.55spg…7th in SEC – SEC Player of the Year
Unsung Hero: Tasmin Mitchell – junior forward – 16.3ppg…8th in SEC – 7.2rpg…11th in SEC – 52.1% FG…7th in SEC – 73.2% FT…11th in SEC – 1.58spg…6th in SEC – First-Team All-SEC
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Marcus Thornton – projected #45, Chris Johnson – projected #58
Key Injuries: none
Depth: 24.9%, #299
Achilles Heel: The Tigers are not a very deep team, but are immensely athletic and talented. Their depth does not serve them especially well for a long run in the tournament.Will Make a Deep Run if…: Thornton comes out with confidence and the team wakes up after losing 3 of their last 4
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Thornton isn’t draining shots

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2005-06, Final Four
Streak: 1
Best NCAA Finish: Final Fours in 1981, 1986, 2006
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.18

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None
Distance to First Round Site: 856 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: Shaq.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Nick Saban.
Prediction: LSU is a very talented team, and can beat anyone in the country on the right night. With UNC struggling with Lawson’s injury, the Tigers could be a dark-horse Sweet Sixteen team

Major RTC stories: None

Preview written by… Kurt Wirth/SEC Hoops: The Good. The Bad. The Dirty

Tennessee (#9 seed, East region, Dayton pod)

vs. Oklahoma State (#8 seed)
12:25 p.m. ET – 3/20/09

Vegas Line:  Tennessee -2

General Profile

Location: Knoxville, Tennessee
Conference: Southeastern, at-large
Coach: Bruce Pearl, 98-36 for 73.1%
08-09 Record: 21-12, 10-6
Last 12 Games: 7-5
Best Win: 78-64, @ Siena, 11-27-09
Worst Loss: 67-70, vs. Alabama, 3-8-09
Off. Efficiency Rating: 114.9; #17
Def. Efficiency Rating: 95.7; #70

Nuts n Bolts

Star Player(s): Tyler Smith – junior forward – 17.2ppg…6th in SEC – 5.9rpg…17th in SEC – 3.36apg…leads team and 8th in SEC – 75.5% FT…8th in SEC – 1.63 a/to…5th in SEC…First-Team All-SEC
Unsung Hero: Wayne Chism – junior forward – 13.8ppg…15th in SEC – 8.1rpg…5th in SEC – 71.6% FT…13th in SEC – 1.00bpg…13th in SEC
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Tyler Smith, projected #24
Key Injuries: none
Depth: 34.0%, #99
Achilles Heel: The Vols simply rely too much on Tyler Smith and their paint play as a whole. Tennessee is a very poor three-point shooting team, easily the worst in the SEC at 31.4%.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Freshman Scotty Hopson plays up to his potential and sees touches from behind the arc.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: The Vols become too uni-dimensional underneath the basket, or if Tyler Smith doesn’t show up.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2007-08 2nd round
Streak: 4
Best NCAA Finish: NCAA Sweet 16, 2007
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): n/a

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None
Distance to First Round Site: 303 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: Rocky Top
School Wishes It Could Forget: Phil Fulmer’s last few seasons in Knoxville.
Prediction: Unfortunately, I think the Vols are too reliant on post play to succeed in the postseason. The Vols also don’t seem to be playing inspired basketball right now, and I would think a second-round ousting by Pittsburgh is in order.

Major RTC stories: None

Preview written by… Kurt Wirth/SEC Hoops: The Good. The Bad. The Dirty

Utah State (#11, West, Boise pod)

vs. Marquette (#6)

Fri. 3/20 @ 12:10 pm

Vegas Line:  Utah St. +4.5
General Profile

Location: Logan, Utah

Conference: Western Athletic Conference, Tournament Champion

Coach: Stew Morrill

08-09 Record: 30-4, 14-2

Last 12 Games: 9-3

Best Win: vs. Utah, 66-64, 12/22

Worst Loss: @ St. Mary’s, 64-75, 02/21

Off. Efficiency Rating: 116.8, 13th

Def. Efficiency Rating: 101.3, 169th
Nuts ‘n Bolts

Star Player(s): Gary Wilkinson (17/7/4 assts); DeShawn Sims (16/7)

Unsung Hero: The freshmen corps of Laval Lucas-Perry, Zach Novak and Stu Perry

Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): None

Key Injuries: None

Depth: 23.9% (#313)

Achilles Heel: Turnovers, In two of their four losses this season they committed 17 or more turnovers. Holding onto the ball is the key to their efficiency

Will Make a Deep Run if…: They can get Cornell to upset Mizzou.

Will Make an Early Exit if…: Gary Wilkinson has an off night.
NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2006, lost 1st round to 5th seed Washington 75-61

Streak: 1

Best NCAA Finish: 2001, 2nd round

Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.38 Ws per appearance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: None.

Distance to First Round Site: 291 miles to Boise.

School’s Claim to (Dis)Fame: Currently… mascot Big Blue accepting a $100 bribe from a Nevada fan to steal New Mexico State mascot Pistol Pete’s fake mustache.

School Wishes It Could Forget: The 2003 season when they finished 25-3, tied for the regular season title but did not get an at-large bid after losing in the semifinals of the Big West tournament.

Prediction: Utah State is a dangerous 11 seed playing close to home in a familiar arena and facing a team that has lost five of its last six since losing a key player to injury.

Major RTC stories: n/a

Preview written by… Sam Wasson, bleedCrimson.net

Portland State University (#13, East, Boise pod)

vs Xavier (#4)
Fri., 3/20 at 7:25 pm
Vegas Line:  +10.5

General Profile
Location: Portland, Oregon
Conference: Big Sky, automatic
Coach: Ken Bone, hired 2005.  Record at PSU = 77-48
08-09 Record: 23-9 (11-5)
Last 12 Games: 8-4 (won 6)
Best Win: At Gonzaga, 77-70, on 12/23/08.
Worst Loss: vs Cal Poly, 62-65, on 12/17/08 (six days before winning at Gonzaga).
Off. Efficiency Rating: 107.4 (79th)
Def. Efficiency Rating: 103.0 (201st)

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Jeremiah Dominguez (12.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.8 spg)
Unsung Hero: Jamie Jones (8.9 ppg, leads team in rebounding at 5.9 rpg)
Potential NBA Draft Pick: None.
Key Injuries: No significant injuries.
Depth: 34.5% (87th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Defense.  Opponents shoot 45.5% from the field which ranks 271st nationally.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: They can forget about the TV cameras; if they can hit their 3s (they shoot 38%, 33rd nationally); and if they maybe catch Xavier napping.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: The rest of the roster doesn’t contribute a little more.  PSU will throw a lot of guys at you but they have four guys averaging double-figures, and that barely.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2008; lost to Kansas in the 1st round
Streak: Two years.
Best NCAA Finish: 2008, as above.
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): n/a

Other
Distance to First Round Site: 428 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: Considered one of the nation’s “greener” colleges; called a “college with a conscience” by the Princeton Review; Holly Madison (“The Girls Next Door”) went there.
School Wishes It Could Forget: The fate of MLB pitcher and alum Steve Olin, killed in a boating accident during spring training of 1993.
Prediction: It’s possible to catch Xavier a little complacent to start games sometimes, but even though PSU will be a popular pick for a R1 upset due to lack of national focus on Xavier during the season, in the end the Musketeers will probably be too much for the Vikings to handle.
Major RTC stories: Checking in on the Big Sky

Preview written by Rush The Court.

Michigan State (#2, Midwest, Minneapolis pod)
Vs. Robert Morris (#15)
Fri., 3/20 at 9:50 PM
Vegas Line: Michigan State, -17

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile
Location: East Lansing, MI
Conference: Big 10, At-large
Coach: Tom Izzo, 14th season, 331-135
08-09 Record: 26-6 overall, 15-3 in the Big 10
Last 12 Games: 9-3
Best Win: At Illinois on March 1st (74-66)
Worst Loss: Playing what was essentially a home game in Detroit on December 3rd against #1 UNC, the Spartans lost by 35 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates.
Off. Efficiency Rating: 112.7; 34th
Def. Efficiency Rating: 88.4; 10th

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Kalin Lucas (14.8 PPG and 4.4 APG); Raymar Morgan (10.8 PPG and 5.7 RPG)
Unsung Hero: Goran Suton (9.5 PPG and 7.6 RPG)
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Morgan (42nd in 2010). Delvon Roe has the potential to be a late first or early second round pick. Lucas and Durrell Summers will probably be 2nd round picks as well whenever they comes out.
Key Injuries: None
Depth: 36.6% (48th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Inexperience. Despite having 2 seniors and a junior in the starting line-up many of the Spartans are quite young. Will they be able to hold up under the March pressure?
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Raymar Morgan returns to the form he showed before he had atypical pneumonia, which sidelined him for more than 2 weeks and it took him a while to play well after he returned.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Their inexperience leads to too many turnovers.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2008; lost to Memphis in the Sweet 16
Streak: 12th straight year
Best NCAA Finish: National champions (1979 and 2000)
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present):+0.23. The Spartans win 0.23 more games per year than they would be expected to based on the historical performance of teams with the same seed.

Other
Six Degrees to Detroit: Besides the fact that it’s a 91.2 mile drive from the Breslin Center to Ford Field where the Final 4 is this year? The Spartans roster features 9 players from the state of Michigan. Durrell Summers takes home the prize as being the closest to Detroit having gone to high school at Redford Covenant.
Distance to First Round Site: 628 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: A former Spartan point guard holds the record for most assists in a NBA game (Scott Skiles) while another Spartan point guard holds the unofficial record for being the most supportive teammate in NBA history (Mateen Cleaves). They also had a point guard named Magic Johnson who wasn’t too bad at either of those two things himself.
School Wishes It Could Forget: The John L. Smith era, which can be summed up in this amazing meltdown by a local sports radio host.
Prediction: The Spartans have all the pieces in place to make a storybook run to play in the Final 4 in what would be essentially home games, but I get the funny feeling that USC is going to make a run and take them out in the 2nd round because I think that it’s a bad match-up for the Spartans.
Major RTC stories: N/A.

Preview written by Rush the Court

Boston College (#7, Midwest, Minneapolis pod)
vs. USC (#10)
Fri., 3/20 at 7:20 PM
Vegas Line: Boston College, +2

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile
Location: Chestnut Hill, MA
Conference: ACC, At-large
Coach: Al Skinner, 232-148
08-09 Record: 22-11 (9-7 in the ACC)
Last 12 Games: 7-5
Best Win: At UNC (when they were undefeated and “unbeatable”), 85-78 on January 4th. A close second is their victory at home against Duke, 80-74 on February 15th.
Worst Loss: Following their win at UNC, they lost to Harvard 82-70 at home on January 7th.
Off. Efficiency Rating: 113.9, 27th
Def. Efficiency Rating: 99.3, 132nd

Nuts ‘n Bolts
Star Player(s): Tyrese Rice (17.1 PPG and 5.4 APG); Joe Trapani (13.5 PPG and 6.6 RPG)
Unsung Hero: Rakim Sanders (13.0 PPG and 4.5 RPG)
Potential NBA Draft Pick: Rice, projected at #43 (in 2009). Trapani and Sanders are potential late 2nd round picks when they decide to leave.
Key Injuries: N/A
Depth: 29.7% (200th nationally); percentage of minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Inconsistency. See their January 4th/7th Jekyll and Hyde where they knocked off #1 UNC on the road and then lost the next game to Harvard at home.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Rice can play consistently and within himself. He tries to get too fancy sometimes with the alley-oops when a simple bounce pass will do.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: The supporting cast (outside of Rice, Trapani, and Sanders) doesn’t step up.

NCAA History
Last Year Invited: 2007; lost to Georgetown in the 2nd round
Streak: N/A
Best NCAA Finish: Elite 8 (1967 and 1982)
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.28. On average, the Eagles win 0.28 more games than they would be expected to based on their seed compared to historical norms.

Other
Distance to First Round Site: 1,389 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: The Eagles boast three famous QBs (Heisman trophy winner Doug Flutie, one-time All-Pro Matt Hasselbeck and the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan)
School Wishes It Could Forget: The 1978-79 basketball point shaving scandal, but Bill Simmons won’t let them.
Prediction: The Eagles have played well at the end of the regular season, but they drew a hot USC team. They should be competitive against the Trojans, but in the end Taj Gibson, DeMar Derozan, and Daniel Hackett will be too much.
Major RTC stories: RTC Live: Wake Forest @ Boston College and RTC Live: Clemson at Boston College

Preview written by Rush The Court.

Oklahoma (#2, South, Kansas City pod)

Morgan State (#15)
Mar. 19 @ 9:40pm

Vegas Line:  Oklahoma -16.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Norman, OK
Conference: Big 12, at-large
Coach: Jeff Capel, 66-32
08-09 Record: 27-5, 13-3
Last 12 Games: 8-4
Best Win: 87-82, Purdue, November 28th at Preseason NIT
Worst Loss: 96-88, at Arkansas, December 30th
Off. Efficiency Rating: 117.8; 7th
Def. Efficiency Rating: 93.5; 46th

Nuts ‘n Bolts

Star Player(s): Blake Griffin 21.9 ppg, 14.3 rpg; Willie Warren 14.7 ppg, 3 apg, 1.2 spg
Unsung Hero: Taylor Griffin 9.6 ppg, 6rpg
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Blake Griffin, 1st overall; Willie Warren 15th
Key Injuries: none
Depth: 20.7% (332nd nationally); percentage of total minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Poor point guard play
Will Make a Deep Run if…: the guards play like they did in January and early February
Will Make an Early Exit if…: the guards play like they have the past 3 weeks

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2008, 2nd round
Streak: 2
Best NCAA Finish: 1988, runner up
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): -0.47; on average they win 0.47 less games per year than you would expect from a team with a similar seed based on historical performance

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: Coach Jeff Capel played for Duke; Duke’s former football coach is Steve Spurrier; Steve Spurrier coached Heisman trophy winner Danny Wueffel; Billy Sims who won a Heisman was drafted number 1 by the Detroit Lions in 1980; which leads us to the Final Four site of Detroit
Distance to First Round Site: 368 miles (Kansas City, MO)
School’s Claim to Fame: Being that Oklahoma is a football school mainly; our claim to fame is 7 football National Championships and 5 Heisman winners. This year however we will be able to say we are the only school to have both the Heisman winner and The Naismith College Player of the Year for the same school calendar year.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Any ties to Kelvin Sampson and recent BCS bowl games
Prediction: If you had asked me for a prediction two weeks ago, I would have said Final Four or bust for this team. However the way this team has played over the last few games has me wondering if they will make it out of the first weekend.

Major RTC stories: Former Oklahoma Great Wayman Tisdale Loses a Leg
Preview written by… Nick Juby of Crimson and Cream Machine

Syracuse (#3 seed, South, Miami pod)

Stephen F. Austin (#14)
Mar. 20 @ 12:15pm

Vegas Line:  Syracuse -12

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Syracuse, NY
Conference: Big East, at-large
Coach: Jim Boeheim, 797-287
08-09 Record: 26-9 (11-7 in the Big East)
Last 12 Games: 8-4
Best Win: vs. UConn, 127-117 in 6 OT on 3/12 (You may have heard about this one.)
Worst Loss: At Providence, 100-94 on 1/28
Off. Efficiency Rating: 117.7; 10th
Def. Efficiency Rating: 92.7; 42nd

Nuts ‘n Bolts

Star Player(s): Jonny Flynn, 17.5 PPG, 6.7 APG, 37.2 MPG)
Unsung Hero: Kristof Ongenaet, his stats couldn’t possibly measure his importance as SU’s intangibles guy
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Jonny Flynn, N/A. Has said he plans to stay but left the door open based on NCAA Tourney
Key Injuries: None.
Depth: 30.9% (314th nationally); percentage of total minutes played by players coming off the bench
Achilles Heel: Arinze Onuaku’s free-throw shooting – 30%
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Jonny Flynn controls the tempo, Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf’s three-pointers fall, and the zone defense confuses teams)
Will Make an Early Exit if…: they are completely burnt out from the Big East Tournament

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2006, L-1st Round
Streak: N/A
Best NCAA Finish: 2003, National Champion
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.25. On average, the Orangemen win 0.25 more games per year than would be expected for a team with a similar seed based on historical data.

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: Legendary Syracuse player Dave Bing is currently running for mayor of Detroit.
Distance to First Round Site: 1,417 miles (Miami, FL)
School’s Claim to Fame: Hall of Fame coach Jim Boeheim, who has played for or coached Syracuse since 1963
School Wishes It Could Forget: The 1987 National Championship game and Keith Smart’s shot to win it for Indiana.
Prediction: Syracuse is hitting it’s groove at the right time and I fully expect the team to make it at least to the Sweet Sixteen. An assumed match-up with Oklahoma awaits there and I’m hopeful, but realistic.

Major RTC stories: ATB: Syracuse Gets “Jacked” From 60 Feet, Paul Harris Will Eat Your Food, Six OTs in New York, Revisited, ATB: Epic Night in MSG, and Sweetest NCAA Memories #7: Two Shades of Orange(men)
Preview written by… Sean Keeley of Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician

UCLA (#6, East, Philadelphia pod)

vs. Virginia Commonwealth (#11)
Mar. 19 @ 9:50pm

Vegas Line: UCLA -7

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Los Angeles, CA
Conference: Pac 10
Coach: Ben Howland, 149-53
08-09 Record: 25-8 (13-5 in the Pac 10)
Last 12 Games: 8-4
Best Win: 85-76 vs. Washington, February 19
Worst Loss: 82-81 vs. Washington St., February 21
Off. Efficiency Rating: 121.2, 3rd
Def. Efficiency Rating: 92.5, 40th

Nuts ‘n Bolts

Star Player(s): Darren Collison, PG, senior- 14.8 points, 5.0 assists, 1.6 steals, 54% FG, 92% FT; Josh Shipp, SF, senior- 14.4 points, 1.3 steals, 51% FG, 44% 3PT
Unsung Hero: Alfred Aboya, C, senior- 10.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 58% FG
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Darren Collison, 1st round, 24th overall
Key Injuries: None
Depth: 31% (165th nationally); percentage of minutes played by payers coming off the bench
Achilles Heel: 250th out of 330 in field goal percentage defense
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Jrue Holiday steps up his game on both ends of the court and the perimeter defense improves, while the Bruins continue to shoot at the 50.6% that leads the nation.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: The perimeter defense allows easy penetration so opponents shoot at a high percentage and Alfred Aboya gets in foul trouble early.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2008, Final Four (Lost to Memphis)
Streak: 4 consecutive years
Best NCAA Finish: National champions 11 times, 1995 most recent
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.31. UCLA wins 0.31 more games on average each year than would be expected based on this historical performance of teams with a similar seed.

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: UCLA has played a team from the state of Michigan in every year since 2002.
Distance to First Round Site: 2,709 (Philadelphia, PA)
School’s Claim to Fame: UCLA has more applicants than any other school in the country and counts Jack Black, Francis Ford Coppola, James Dean, Will Forte, James Franco, Heather Locklear, Rob Reiner and Ben Stiller among its enterainment alumni.
School Wishes It Could Forget: Their loss to Princeton in the first round of the 1996 NCAA Tournament as defending champions.
Prediction: Can the Bruins make it to a fourth consecutive Final Four if a couple higher seeds in their bracket are upset? Sure, but a Sweet 16 appearance sounds like a better guess, which isn’t too bad for a down year. Is it?

Major RTC stories: Yeah, You Might Be Better than a UCLA Player
Preview written by… Ryan Rosenblatt of Bruinsnation.com

North Carolina (#1 seed, South, Greensboro pod)

vs. Radford (#16)
Mar. 19 @ 2:50pm

Vegas Line: UNC -26.5

Thanks to Vegas Watch for providing these graphs that measure the moving average of a team’s spread (moving avg.) over time vs. the spread for each individual game (indiv).  If a team’s moving average is higher than zero, then Vegas currently has a higher opinion of them than Pomeroy, and vice versa.

General Profile

Location: Chapel Hill, NC
Conference: ACC, at-large
Coach: Roy Williams (170-37 at UNC, 588-138 overall)
08-09 Record: 28-4 (13-3)
Last 12 Games: 10-2
Best Win: A good case can be made for the thirty-five point stomping of a future two-seed, when UNC topped Michigan State 98-63 back in November in the ACC-Big Ten challenge. Of course it doesn’t really have the emotional resonance of the two wins over Duke (101-87 and 79-71, respectively.)
Worst Loss: With only a few to choose from, I’d go with the loss to Boston College, 85-78, on January 4th.
Off. Efficiency Rating: 123.9 (#1 in the nation)
Def. Efficiency Rating: 90.8 (#20 in the nation)

Nuts ‘n Bolts

Star Player(s): Tyler Hansbrough (21.4 ppg, 8.2 rbg, former Player of the Year, multiple record holder), Ty Lawson (15.9 ppg, 6.5 apg, ACC Player of the Year).
Unsung Hero: Ed Davis (6.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg) only gets 18.8 minutes a game, but has come on strong in recent weeks and is a solid third big man for when Hansbrough or Thompson needs a spell.
Potential NBA Draft Pick(s): Ty Lawson (23rd), Tyler Hansbrough (25th) , Danny Green (42nd), Wayne Ellington (unranked).
Key Injuries: Ty Lawson, injured toe (missed ACC tournament, should play in the NCAA’s) and Marcus Ginyard, left foot stress fracture (out for the season).
Depth: 27.3% (257th nationally); percentage of total minutes played by reserves
Achilles Heel: Penetrating guards that can also pull up the three, lapses on defense.
Will Make a Deep Run if…: Ty Lawson is healthy and the team plays like the experienced and talent-laden squad they’ve been all season.
Will Make an Early Exit if…: Lawson does not return, or rocks fall on the team bus and everybody dies.

NCAA History

Last Year Invited: 2008, Final Four team
Streak: 6 years running
Best NCAA Finish: They’ve won it a couple of times; it made the local paper. (1957, 1982, 1993, and 2005)
Historical Performance vs. Seed (1985-present): +0.34. On average, the Tar Heels win 0.34 more games per year than they would be expected to compared to the historical performances of other teams with a similar seed.

Other

Six Degrees to Detroit: (1) UNC has never played a basketball game in Detroit. (2) No current UNC player is from Detroit, or the state of Michigan. (3) They have supplied the Pistons with a number of players, including Robert McAdoo, (1979-81), Pete Chilcutt (1993-94), Kenny Smith (1996-97), Eric Montross (1998-2001), Jerry Stackhouse (1998-2002), Hubert Davis (2002-03), and Rasheed Wallace, and coaches Larry Brown (2003-05), Phil Ford (2004-05), Dave Hanners (2003-05), and Pat Sullivan (2004-05). (4) All of these people know where the secret button is on the court of the Palace that releases the attack bears trained to devour your opponents, and have told that secret to the current UNC team. (5) Doug Moe was drafted by the Pistons in 1960, but chose instead to matriculate from Elon College. The next year he was drafted by the Chicago Packers and went instead into the ABA. (6) There is no six.
Distance to First Round Site: 55.6 miles
School’s Claim to Fame: UNC is the first state university, founded in 1793. And we don’t really care what Georgia has to say about it.
School Wishes It Could Forget: That among its notable alumni currently employed in broadcasting are Rick Dees and Stuart Scott. Yep, we brought you both “Disco Duck” and “Boo ya!” So yeah, that’s our bad.
Prediction: A Final Four appearance is pretty likely, provided everyone is healthy and they can maneuver a tough bracket. Beyond that, it’s a tough weekend; there are good four or five teams who could the Heels fits in Detroit. But what kind of biased blogger would I be if I didn’t pick Carolina to win it all?

Major RTC stories: UNC: #1 With a Bullet, UNC: Let’s Not Go Sucking Each Other’s [redacted] Just Yet, Tyler Hansbrough Out Indefinitely, Hansbrough – For Your Own Good, Play or Get Out, #1 UNC Already Dodging Bullets, UNC Picks Up Another Piece, RTC Live: Take II (Gameday: Miami @ UNC), ATB: Carolina Gets Teague-Bagged, ATB: #1 Goes Down as BC Flies Like an Eagle Over UNC, and Who’s Driving the Ford Now?.

Preview written by… T.H. of Carolina March