ACC M5: 12.11.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 11th, 2012

  1. BC Interruption: The US Department of Education published athletic revenues and profits for athletic departments. A quick note before looking at these numbers: profit can be very misleading. Athletic departments aren’t designed to turn profits, as in many cases, all revenue goes towards paying debts, contracts and travel. The revenue numbers can be misleading too, though less so. Case in point: Louisville’s basketball revenues nearly double those of Duke and North Carolina. How’s it possible for an admittedly strong regional brand to almost equal the sum of two of the three most popular teams in the country? The answer: the Yum! Center. The school’s state-of-the-art downtown arena brings in quite a deal of revenue, which presumably counts towards the basketball numbers. It’s still really interesting stuff.
  2. Duke Basketball Report: Ken Pomeroy (and many others) have pointed to Duke’s apparent struggles on the glass as a potential Achilles heel this season. Duke Basketball Report went back into the archives and checked on the rebounding figures from Coach K’s tenure in Durham. The reality is that neither one is wrong. Duke‘s rebounding is at its weakest point this year, but does that mean it will come back to haunt the Blue Devils? Probably at some point. But also remember that Krzyzewski has had great success without great rebounding teams and Marshall Plumlee should help augment the Blue Devils’ board-crashing upon his return.
  3. College Hoops Daily: How did Wake Forest go from being a regular contender in the ACC to a perennial conference doormat? Well, Skip Prosser died; Dino Gaudio signed a team full of players with off-court issues and didn’t win enough to merit the exceptions; and athletic director Ron Wellman hired his friend Jeff Bzdelik. Bzdelik hasn’t improved in his three years leading the team and isn’t likable enough to mask his less than stellar results with charm. This season’s freshman class is really his first real step forward, but the product on the court looks largely the same. Bzdelik may be a great basketball coach, but he’s got to start showing progress right now if he wants to stick around much longer (see: Mark Turgeon).
  4. Washington Post: Speaking of Turgeon, he’s trying some new ways to avoid turnovers. Now, whenever a Maryland player commits a turnover in practice, he performs five push-ups. One interesting thing about the Terrapins’ turnover problem is that it’s not just one player responsible for all the miscues. Eight — yes, you read that right — Maryland players are averaging at least 1.5 turnovers a game. Do the math, and it’s not hard to see why the Terps are last in the conference in turnover margin.
  5. Hartford Courant: Connecticut never really stood a chance in conference realignment. At least not against Louisville. Despite the two schools’ recent head-to-head results, the Cardinals are obviously a football program headed in the right direction. It’s harder to say that is true with Connecticut. Attendance is struggling and strong academics can’t make up for lukewarm fan support. Less importantly, the Huskies don’t share a border with Indiana (Notre Dame, anyone?) or Ohio, a football talent hotbed.
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ACC M5: 12.10.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 10th, 2012

  1. Boston Globe: Steve Donahue is trying to figure out how to best rebuild Boston College, but after losing to Harvard for the fifth straight year (and in non-competitive fashion), he called off practice. He assessed what the team is good at and what it isn’t, and, long story short: shooting and defense, respectively. With that in mind Donahue changed the look of the Eagles. He went out against St. Francis looking to score 75 or 80 points, and focused the defense on aggressiveness instead of implementing complex schemes. When the first half wasn’t going well, Donahue benched his star player Ryan Anderson for most of the second half. If the Eagles start looking better, we might look back and see coaching genius. If they don’t, we’ll see desperation.
  2. Fayetteville Observer: Richard Howell may be the most important player on NC State’s roster this season. He’s definitely not the most talented, but the senior consistently outworks everyone on the floor. Most people expected Lorenzo Brown or CJ Leslie to take the helm of this Wolfpack team, but Howell has been the guy who refuses to quit — he’s the guy that sparks the team and steps up in the big moments. This isn’t to say Howell is perfect, as he still attracts fouls at an alarming rate and lacks the polish to really be an offensive centerpiece. But he’s the type of guy who could bring the talented freshmen into the fold and build on the success Mark Gottfried’s team had to end last season.
  3. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Justin Anderson is going to be a special player for Tony Bennett if he stays all four years. Right now, he’s an incredibly athletic wing who adds a little flash to the slowest team in college basketball. But his greatness still comes in spurts. He’s taking too many threes, especially considering his skill set. Anderson is a guy who is going to give some very good teams fits during his career. Combine him with Bennett’s muck-it-up pack-line defense that keeps things close, and it certainly looks like a recipe for success.
  4. Washington Post: Mark Turgeon is still figuring out his rotation. Mostly Turgeon is trying to find his most effective combinations. Right now the Terrapins are playing a caliber of opponent that allows Turgeon to tinker a lot with very little risk. Even though he wasn’t on the team last year Dez Wells had a quote that certainly harkened back to a certain elite Terrapin from last season:

    “Nobody cares about who scores the points, nobody cares about the Terp of the Week, that stuff. That’s good for the team, and that’s good for the school, because they’re really behind us, but as a team we’re not worried about the accolades, we just want to win. Whether somebody scores 50 points or somebody doesn’t score at all, we’ll continue to pick that person up.”

  5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Duke isn’t the only ACC team struggling to crash the boards this season. Georgia Tech has struggled with rebounding margin as well. Somewhat surprisingly, the Yellow Jackets’ advanced splits from Ken Pomeroy don’t back up Brian Gregory’s concerns. It’s true Gregory’s team is in the second half of the country in rebounding its own misses, but the team is actually a solid defensive rebounding team. But stats never give the whole picture, and it’s clear Gregory wants the team to box out more aggressively.

EXTRA: Brian Zoubek is still living the dream as a deluxe cream puff chef based in New Jersey. He planned on giving Duke a sampling of his craft after its trip to the Izod Center to play Temple.

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ACC M5: 12.07.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on December 7th, 2012

  1. Washington Post: The big question coming into the season for Virginia was how the Cavaliers could replace Mike Scott, especially on offense. When Tony Bennett said “by committee” during the preseason, I couldn’t help but roll my eyes. Replace arguably the best offensive player in the conference by a committee of whom exactly? But Akil Mitchell and Darion Atkins have really stepped up and proven me wrong. Mitchell is playing very well offensively, averaging nearly 13 points and 10 rebounds a game. Together they’re making the transition as smooth as possible, though the team’s reliance on freshmen will still hurt at spots during the season.
  2. Fox Sports Carolinas: Expect to see a lot more articles in this vein if Mason Plumlee‘s production keeps up. He’s absolutely having a first-team All-America season — maybe even a national player of the year season. He took plenty of criticism over his first three years, so it’s only fair he gets credit now. The thing that remains to be seen is how his brother joining Duke’s rotation (which will likely happen soon) will affect the team. It should quash some of the “Duke doesn’t have depth inside” talk and may also help with Duke’s rebounding struggles.
  3. Virginia Tech Collegiate Times: Virginia Tech is renewing its long-standing rivalry with West Virginia this season, but James Johnson isn’t making a big deal about it. Part of his reasoning is because the rivalry has been dormant since his players were in middle school. Another part is likely West Virginia’s recent success since hiring Bob Huggins having eclipsed the Hokies on the national scene. Regardless, this is the kind of series that can’t hurt if the Hokies want to be in contention for an at-large bid come Selection Sunday.
  4. Tallahassee Democrat: Well Florida State certainly didn’t impress the country’s top recruit Andrew Wiggins on the basketball floor Wednesday. But the school and its fans certainly let Wiggins know he’d be welcome. The Seminoles honored both of Wiggins’ parents at halftime with highlights from their Florida State careers. The fans stood for much of a blowout trying to emphasize their commitment to a sport that normally takes the backseat in Tallahassee. A coed’s tweet to Wiggins went viral. However, the game just emphasized the tough choice Wiggins has to make: Be a part of a Kentucky team that should be among the favorites to win it all, or help take his parents alma mater to a place it’s never been before. Wiggins gets compared — fairly or unfairly– to LeBron James and his decision is analogous to the decision LeBron faced in free agency. If he does choose Florida State, Leonard Hamilton’s team will instantly become a conference contender.
  5. WRAL: Longtime producer and photographer Rick Armstrong remembered back to his early days in journalism three decades ago when NC State won its most recent national championship under Jim Valvano. Some stories read like they’ve been told over and over, at parties, over dinner and in the office. These are some of them. Armstrong still pines for the days when Jimmy V and the Cardiac Pack fought their way to an unlikely national title. Nostalgia makes for a great muse.
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On Florida State, Leonard Hamilton, and Puzzling Losses…

Posted by mpatton on December 3rd, 2012

Florida State has been to the NCAA Tournament in each of the last four years. Leonard Hamilton‘s conference records during those years are (chronologically): 10-6, 10-6, 11-5, and 12-4. Last year the Seminoles were two games from tying North Carolina for the top spot in the ACC despite beating Duke and the Tar Heels (their only loss on Tobacco Road last year came at home against the Blue Devils). What held them back? A 20-point beatdown at the hands of a mediocre Clemson team to open conference play and the conference upset of the year against Boston College.

Leonard Hamilton’s teams rack up some great wins and puzzling losses (Photo Credit: Glenn Beil / Democrat).

But don’t stop with conference play. Last year the Seminoles also lost to two Ivy League schools; the year before they were Auburn’s lone non-conference win against a power conference school. The years 2008-10 were much smoother, as Hamilton’s squad escaped with only a head-scratcher at home against Sidney Lowe’s NC State and a 14-point loss at a middling Northwestern squad, respectively. This year looks like more of the same, as Florida State has already lost to Southern Alabama and Mercer (at home). But what is it about these games? Are they a product of Hamilton’s system? Or are they a part of it? It may be a little of both. I don’t believe for a second that Hamilton wants those losses. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he expected them.

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Jeff Bzdelik: “I’m Not Going to Make Excuses,” But…

Posted by mpatton on November 28th, 2012

Wake Forest was embarrassed last night, losing by 16 to Nebraska in Winston-Salem — the same Nebraska that just eked out a home win over Tulane before getting blown out by Kent State (also at home). The game was close at the half with the Demon Deacons only trailing by four, but Nebraska came out blazing in the second half and scored on 19 of its first 23 possessions over a span of 15 minutes. In case you prefer advanced stats, Nebraska scored 40 points on those 23 possessions. That’s 1.74 points per possession, for those of you wondering.

Nebraska Manhandled Wake Forest at the Joel Last Night. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

When asked about the game, Jeff Bzdelik offered the Winston-Salem Journal‘s Dan Collins this jewel:

“I’ve tried everything. I’m not going to make any excuses. Tuesday is their toughest day academically. It starts at sun-up. I was aware of that, and I was trying to give them rest. I tried a different approach today, just giving them some rest. I don’t know.”

For those of you keeping score at home, Bzdelik’s team was embarrassed at home by a Big Ten basketball doormat because the players had a hard class day. It’s really hard to believe that Wake Forest was considered a national contender a few years ago. But Bzdelik isn’t making excuses. Well, other than blaming an abysmal home loss on academics and “rest.” Read the rest of this entry »

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Duke’s Ryan Kelly: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Posted by mpatton on November 26th, 2012

Ryan Kelly may be Duke‘s most important player. Just look at the Blue Devils’ tailspin last season when he went down with an injured foot. In Duke’s losses last year Kelly averaged five points a game (not including the two Ls he missed due to injury). In Duke’s wins he averaged over 13 points a game. That’s a striking difference. Kelly’s averages from last season are identical to this season (11.8 points per game and just over five rebounds per game), though he’s seen a dramatic drop in his efficiency from beyond the arc and at the charity stripe. The free throw problem is probably a short-term slump and his three point percentage will also likely rise but remain below last season’s excellent 41% mark. But don’t let identical output and depressed percentages confuse you: Kelly is an improved player whose game has evolved a lot even since last season.

Duke really missed Ryan Kelly at the end of last season. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

The most quantifiable change has come in his shot selection. Last year over 40 percent of Kelly’s shots were threes; this year just over 30 percent of his attempts come from distance. Rather than taking low-percentage contested twos, Kelly’s mid-range game is flourishing. At 6’11”, he’s virtually impossible for more athletic wings to guard, instead drawing power forwards to the perimeter where he has the advantage. Instead of settling for threes this season, he’s taken one or two steps inside the arc, where he’s nearly automatic. Kelly also appears to be more comfortable operating out around 12-16 feet from the basket, as his turnovers are down this year, potentially because he isn’t forcing things as much.

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ACC M5: 11.23.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 23rd, 2012

  1. Duke Basketball Report: If you’ve got some free time, Al Featherston has an exhaustive but interesting op-ed on Maryland‘s coming departure from the league. Featherston has a great perspective, and the piece comes at the move from a lot of different sides. It’s lengthy, but it’s worth the time.
  2. NBC Sports: Ken Pomeroy tweeted during Duke‘s emphatic win against Minnesota that “Duke could be the best team in the country,” but Rob Dauster isn’t drinking the Blue Devil kool-aid just yet. Pomeroy’s reasoning makes sense: Duke held Minnesota to its least efficient outing of the year, while blistering the Golden Gophers for 1.23 points per possession. Dauster’s skepticism also makes sense, both because Duke shot 80% from beyond the arc and Minnesota’s Trevor Mbakwe didn’t look his dominant self. Still, if Duke makes it out of Atlantis unscathed, this team certainly deserves to be in that conversation.
  3. Carolina Columns: North Carolina senator Thom Goolsby thinks there needs to be a criminal probe into the academic scandal at North Carolina. Goolsby sits on the state’s senate higher education committee. I’d be extremely surprised if there was a criminal probe before the results from the school’s internal audit are released. Regardless, it’s not a good look for North Carolina to be taking shots from a state senator and speaks to the severity of the case.
  4. Run The Floor: Landry Nnoko had a huge block in Clemson‘s tough loss to Gonzaga. More important than that singular play was how close the Tigers managed to stay with a strong Gonzaga team deep into the second half. The game wasn’t pretty, but credit Brad Brownell and his team for coming out and hanging with a team many experts have as a Final Four sleeper for 30 minutes. That’s really promising for Clemson come conference play.
  5. Providence Journal: If one more Big East school departs it’s possible that the remaining schools could vote to dissolve the conference. Specifically, Kevin McNamara theorizes, one more school’s departure would give basketball-only schools the super-majority needed to get rid of the conference completely. We’re still a long ways from such a drastic measure, but it’s definitely something to be aware of going forward.
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ACC M5: 11.22.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 22nd, 2012

  1. Sporting News: Reading this convinced me that Brian Gregory may be exactly what Georgia Tech needs. He’s a very good salesman, which is crucial both for future recruiting and getting alumni and fans involved. The two go hand in hand as good recruiting leads to better teams which leads to more alumni support; likewise good alumni support leads to better facilities and more hype around the program and better recruiting. Give Gregory a couple more years and he’ll have Georgia Tech back in the conversation.
  2. Washington Times: As more and more opinion pieces start to turn up regarding Maryland‘s move to the Big Ten, there are a couple of distinct themes: that the Terrapins made the no-brainer choice given the realignment climate, the athletic department spit in the face of tradition, or it was a necessary evil because of the department’s financial woes. This piece clearly falls on the side of the latter. More interesting are the demographics of groups on both sides: In general, current students and the athletic department seem to come down in the first camp, older alumni and fans of other ACC schools in the second camp, and a mixture of the two falling in the third camp. None of the other realignment moves have seemed nearly as polarizing amongst the fan base.
  3. Indy Week: NC State has received a lot of hype this season — even after the ugly loss to Oklahoma State — but a lot of people don’t remember how the program faded to obscurity in the first place (at least as far as national titles are concerned). Through the 1970s and 1980s the Wolfpack were a top program in the ACC and the country, but the school forced Jim Valvano out in 1990 and the program never really recovered to that level under any of Les Robinson, Herb Sendek or Sidney Lowe.
  4. Raleigh News & Observer: It should only be good news that Reggie Johnson is more motivated than ever, has lost weight, and is disciplined. But why are Miami and Johnson struggling to start the season? Johnson and frontcourt partner Kenny Kadji are off to very poor offensive starts. Kadji is turning the ball over far too much, and Johnson just can’t shoot with any accuracy. But in the long run both are proven commodities, and the Hurricanes should be much better than they’ve played so far.
  5. Baltimore Sun: Kevin Coherd’s column about the Terrapins is cautiously optimistic, echoing Mark Turgeon‘s sentiments about his young team. It’s true this team is not a national contender just yet, but it could really rock the boat in the ACC if it can find some consistent offense. Alex Len already deserves any ACC Most Improved Awards we can find for him. Coaches like to spin things down a little at the beginning of the season to keep their teams as clean as possible, but Turgeon has a lot to look forward to this season.

EXTRA: DAILY RUMOR

Could the Big Ten be poaching another ACC (Carolina) blue blood as its 15th or 16th member?

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ACC M5: 11.21.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 21st, 2012

  1. Raleigh News & Observer: North Carolina lost to Butler in the Maui Invitational, sending fans on a roller coaster ride bottoming out down 29 points, peaking at a last gasp comeback that cut the deficit to six, before settling somewhere in between. The Tar Heels were pushed around all night, and defended the perimeter woefully. About the only positive to take away from the game was the last 12 minutes, but North Carolina has to get a lot tougher and can’t coast after big wins.
  2. Sports Illustrated: Mike Krzyzewski wants to “circle wagons” and figure out who’s staying in the ACC. It’s clear the Maryland move caught Coach K by surprised, and he’s concerned about the stability of the conference. Before the powwow he may want to wait to see if the Terrapins manage to reduce the $50 million exit fee: if they can, Krzyzewski is absolutely right to question the conference stability. It sounds like Coach K wants reaffirmation from Clemson and Florida State and supports replacing Maryland with Connecticut or Louisville.
  3. Charlottesville Daily Progress: Tony Bennett really likes the progress of his freshmen, three of whom made up the Cavaliers’ top scoring trio in their win over North Texas. Bennett’s system definitely has a steep learning curve, so expect the frosh to get better as they understand their roles in the pack-line defense. Long story short: don’t write off Virginia finishing in the top half of the conference just yet. This team still has a long way to go, but it’s improved a lot even just through six games.
  4. Tomahawk Nation: Props to Michael Rogner for charting an efficiency-based +/- for Florida State that takes into account garbage time and other anomalies. While the charts need more data to help take care of outliers (for instance, Terrance Shannon likely won’t play as well most games as he did against St. Joseph’s), but the data is still interesting. It confirms the Seminoles are a more consistent offensive team so far this season, and freshman point guards Montay Brandon and Devon Bookert have a lot to do with it.
  5. Miami Herald: This story is mostly about football, but the NCAA just issued a brutal ultimatum to former Miami players. Mark Ennis described it best: “The NCAA is holding a gun to Miami’s head and telling former players ‘give us what we want or she dies.'” Barry Jackson reported that the NCAA sent out a letter to Miami players telling players that the NCAA will assume their guilty if they don’t talk. This definitely feels like a intimidation tactic by the NCAA to get evidence.
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ACC M5: 11.20.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on November 20th, 2012

  1. CBS Sports and USA Today: Surprising no one, conference realignment chatter dominated ACC press with Maryland‘s official announcement that it would accept the Big Ten’s invitation and join that league in 2014. But where should the ACC go from here? Matt Norlander argues that the league should embrace its basketball roots looking forward. Dan Wolken spoke with David Wilkins, chairman of Clemson’s Board of Trustees, who added, “I’d say that Clemson is very excited about our football program right now and we’d like to see a team added that adds to the football prowess of the ACC, but that’s a decision for the presidents to make based on a lot of factors.” Stability-wise, the conference needs to put football first or not expand at all. Basketball just doesn’t make enough money for conferences with the way the NCAA television deals are currently set up.
  2. Sporting News: Mike DeCourcy is not impressed by Maryland’s decision. He makes a good point that despite why decisions are made (ahem, money), we’ll evaluate their success by how Maryland sports do in the Big Ten. The going theory has been that more money means more success, but DeCourcy makes an interesting point that Maryland is making itself into a geographic outlier. It’s true that in the age of chartered jets teams might not care as much about close road games, but parents and potential recruits do.
  3. Tallahassee Democrat: Terrance Shannon loves coming off the bench so much that he went to Leonard Hamilton before the season to make sure he could still fill the Seminoles’ sixth man role. Luckily for Florida State, Shannon does well coming off the bench. The best asset he has is his motor, which makes him invaluable as a substitute by adding energy to the game. It’s rare that you see a college player who’s both motivated and willing to not start, which speaks to Shannon’s maturity and one reason why Hamilton’s program has been so successful the last few years.
  4. Charlotte Observer: NC State got a harsh reality check from a good Oklahoma State team over the weekend. The game saw miserable performances out of veterans Lorenzo Brown and CJ Leslie. Joe Giglio damningly noted that Leslie looked like “old Leslie,” the immature and indecisive Leslie from his freshman year. Brown struggled on both ends of the floor, with his defense probably reflecting a general level of frustration.
  5. SBNation: And one last shout-out to conference expansion. Jason Kirk lays out a very good argument for the ACC taking Louisville over Connecticut: (1) it gives Notre Dame a close geographic rival while making the conference footprint more contiguous; (2) it’s a much better football program with decent local recruiting; and (3) the Cardinal athletic department is just more profitable than Connecticut’s by a long shot. The only drawback is Louisville’s academics, but right now the ACC has a very strong academic brand and needs to buck up its football cachet, not the other way around.
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