Wednesday’s victory over Lamar was perhaps the best win of Vermont‘s season,  excepting a nice overtime victory over Old Dominion on the road. Vermont is a solid team. They aren’t extraordinary at anything and they aren’t terrible at anything. While Stony Brook technically edged Vermont for the America East Conference regular season title, the Catamounts’ victory in the conference tourney gives them a strong claim as the class of the conference. Yet, when push comes to shove, being the best in this conference just doesn’t mean much. Out of the 32 conferences, the America East Conference ranks 29th by Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. I say this not to disparage the conference or Vermont, but just to make a simple point: Vermont is outclassed by North Carolina.

Vermont Hasn't Seen Size & Athleticism Like This

That doesn’t mean the Catamounts don’t stand a chance or can’t win; it just means that they might play great and still lose. Vermont has some real talent on its roster and Brian Voelkel is a very intriguing and unique player. The fourth tallest starter, Voelkel is also the team’s principal playmaker, averaging a team-high 5.2 APG while also grabbing a team-high 8.7 RPG. Yet despite this versatile charm, Voelkel isn’t a scorer. Vermont does have a few of those, however, including Four McGlynn, a freshman guard who takes 30% of his team’s shots when he is on the floor and makes them at a very high clip (39.3% from three).

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Every time Florida State faces a vastly inferior opponent it might be tempting to go ahead and give the red hot Seminoles credit. Then you have to remember that while Florida State beat North Carolina and Duke two times apiece, this is a team that lost to Boston College, one of the worst teams to play in a power conference this year. Florida State is definitely a good team, but this loss sticks out as a stark reminder that the Seminoles know how to give one away. Not that St. Bonaventure needs any charity: this is a pretty good team that has a legitimate star in Andrew Nicholson and enviable size at most positions. St. Bonaventure presents a number of challenges to the Seminoles, but Florida State is equipped to deal with these challenges.

Nicholson Could Give The Seminoles Problems

So here’s a fun fact: despite all their defensive acumen and talented interior play, the Bonnies have been the better rebounding team over the course of the season. This team gobbles up misses on offense and secures the rock on defense. They aren’t reliant on the long ball and are skilled at getting the ball down low where both guards and forwards are fairly talented at drawing fouls. These are all good things, but unfortunately, these strengths don’t particularly play into the Seminoles weaknesses. The Seminoles defend the interior even better than they defend the perimeter and their depth leaves them largely immune to foul trouble. As good as St. Bonaventure has been at rebounding this year, Florida State has players who can definitely challenge the Bonnies on the glass.

Meanwhile, the Bonnies have one glaring weakness: they cough the ball up very freely. Now, Florida State does the same thing, but the two differ in one key way. Florida State makes up for it’s own turnovers by using pressure defense to force plenty of opponent turnovers, while St. Bonaventure has largely been unsuccessful at forcing opponent turnovers. In this disparity, Florida State has a big opportunity. The Bonnies susceptibility to pressure and disruptive defense plays right into the Seminoles hands. Leonard Hamilton‘s team will be able to do what it does best: make a team miserable on offense by breaking up the possession before it even really starts. Unless St. Bonaventure figures out a way to play exceptionally carefully against one of the most maddening defenses in America, I think that the Bonnies are very likely to lose the battle for possessions in a landslide, rendering most of the rest of the contest a moot point.

Still, Boston College…

This is a tough draw for Virginia. Florida is a very good team for a #7 seed, and that more than offsets the advantage Virginia could have theoretically gained as an unusually good #10 seed. In this match-up the NCAA did something that fans of contrasting styles love: pitting an elite offensive team against an elite defensive team. By Ken Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency rankings, Florida has the second best offense in the country after Missouri while Virginia has the 104th. On defense, Virginia ranks 5th in efficiency while Florida ranks 121st. Virginia’s star is an elite post player in Mike Scott, while Florida relies on it’s triumvirate of guards (Bradley Beal, Kenny Bonyton, and Erving Walker) to rain down threes from the perimeter. Polar opposites of each other in terms of focus, both teams share an affinity for slow pace and play their starters heavy minutes. So what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? Well, in this case, the news doesn’t look particularly good for Virginia.

How Will Donovan Contain Mike Scott?

Of all the teams in the country, few match the statistical profile of Virginia as well as Florida’s SEC brother, Alabama. Like Virginia, Alabama is a defensive-minded team that struggles to score efficiently with a post-centered attack. The Gators played Alabama twice this year, once in the regular season and once in the conference tournament and walked away with the victory both times. It’s tempting to attribute these victories, like many of Florida’s victories, to hot three-point shooting, but the Crimson Tide actually did a pretty good job against the Gators, holding them to only 28.6% and 33.3% from behind the arc. Yet Florida won, by making enough threes, getting enough offensive rebounds, and forcing enough turnovers to get the win. Does the same fate await Virginia?

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Announced last on the NCAA Selection Show (conspiracy?!), North Carolina State made the tournament after a brief absence from meaningful post-season play and was rewarded with what seems to be a fairly favorable draw against San Diego State. Coached by the legendary Steve Fisher, this San Diego State team that was supposed to be in severe rebuilding mode after losing most of last year’s veteran-loaded team to graduation and/or the NBA, but something strange happened. Sure, they lost more games than last year’s  team that went 32-2 before NCAA Tournament play, but who didn’t outside of Murray State. Still, instead of falling off the face of the Earth, the Aztecs made a really strong run this year, knocking off a number of pretty good teams. UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado State, fellow NCAA teams from the Mountain West Conference all took at least one loss to San Diego State. The Aztecs also swept their three-game series against the Pac-12, beating Arizona, California, and Southern California as well as beating a pretty good Big West team in Long Beach State. Now, these wins look okay on paper, but they come with a number of caveats: The Pac-12 was truly terrible this year, wins against Cal and Arizona look worse and worse as more time passes, and beating USC was never really all that impressive. Though the wins against fellow Mountain West teams looks pretty good, it has to be understood that the Aztecs also lost at least once to all three of these teams. So while this is a nice collection of wins, I’m not sure that it says anything definitive about San Diego State’s quality.

Despite Being The Lower Seed, Gottfriend & The Wolfpack Should Like Their Chances

What I can say is that San Diego State has largely started 6’7″ Tim Shelton at center for much of the year. While the Aztecs can bring decent size off the bench in 6’11” Garret Green and 6’8″ Deshawn Stephens (and they typically give reasonable minutes to both), San Diego is pretty small compared to NC State’s front court, which is a problem. San Diego State is a good defensive rebounding team, but the Wolfpack is one of the more formidable offensive rebounding teams in the nation, boasting a legitimate star of the offensive glass in Richard Howell. On the opposite end, the Aztecs (with the exception of Deshawn Stephens) are largely indifferent to the offensive glass, seeming to philosophically embrace a San Antonio Spurs-esque approach which encourages getting back on defense over crashing the offensive glass. All in all, this seems to add up to a distinct advantage for the Wolfpack on the glass on both ends. This difference in rebounding good be significant for teams that stylistically share a few attributes.

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1. Wilmington Star-News: For today’s games, North Carolina‘s John Henson is still a game time decision while Duke‘s Ryan Kelly will only be available for “specialty situations,” which I’m guessing means select end game scenarios that call for three-point shooters or foul trouble to both Plumlees. With both players out, the ACC’s two leaders lost in the conference tournament. Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams seem to feel confident enough to deal with these games with the players available, but both acknowledge that holding out the forwards is a risk.
2. Raleigh News and Observer: When North Carolina State finally heard its name called on Selection Sunday, it triggered an automatic extension in Coach Mark Gottfried‘s contract. In his first year at NC State, Gottfried turned around a struggling problem and led them to a tournament berth for the first time in a long time using basically the same players that were available last year. If Florida State, Virginia, and Duke hadn’t all had such extraordinary seasons, Gottfried probably would have been a mortal lock for ACC Coach of the Year. As it stands, however, he stands poised for a long-term stint in Raleigh, leading the Wolfpack back to glory. This article is also interesting for its financial specifics: Gottfried has round-based incentives that total up to nearly a million dollars if his team win a national championship.
3. The News-Press: This Florida State team has as much NCAA experience as many of the teams in the tournament after a Sweet Sixteen run last year that was cut short by a Cinderella named VCU. The Seminoles are stacked with veterans who feel good about how their past tournament success has prepared them to handle the distractions and novelties of the tournament. The most interesting comment, for me, however, comes from Deividas Dulkys who expresses ambivalence as the team assumes a new identity in the tournament: the favorite. Dulkys doesn’t quite say it, but there is a clear implication that the senior perhaps was less nervous about playing the underdog with nothing to lose and no target on the team’s back.
4. Naples News: The game between Florida and Virginia is a study in different team focuses. While the Gators are an offensive juggernaut, the Cavaliers are a defensive stalwart and when these two teams play today, something has got to give. While, I feel that the author does a good job of eliciting thoughtful quotes from the players and coach on this match-up, I have to object to a bit of the analysis. In terms of schematics, it makes sense to say that Virginia’s pack-line defense is vulnerable to a three-point assault, but the truth is that the Cavaliers have been excellent at guarding the three over the course of the season. Opponents average just 29.5% from beyond the arc against the Wahoos, the 13th best mark in the nation out of 345 Division I schools. While it seems like Virginia should be vulnerable to perimeter shooting because of the pack-line defensive scheme, the truth is that numbers just don’t show this.
5. Fox Sports Carolinas: Since the promotion of Reggie Bullock to the starting line-up, the North Carolina bench hasn’t offered many positive contributions to the Tar Heels’ campaign. James Michael McAdoo has been good, but not great, and while P.J. Hairston started the year with a bang, he faltered during conference play, entering a deep shooting slump. Then, suddenly, this past weekend, the Hairston of the non-conference schedule re-emerged, hitting big shots in the tournament and playing with a general confidence that has to be encouraging to his teammates. Hairston is a Greensboro native and it seems like he is eager to make a name for himself playing in the tournament in his home town. If the guard’s play matches his confidence and Hairston knocks down threes consistently for the Tar Heels, one of North Carolina’s primary weaknesses may have just disappeared.

On Selection Sunday, the brackets were revealed and five different ACC teams found themselves dancing. Poor Miami didn’t make the cut, but when all you have to point to is a win against Duke and Florida State, it’s hard to fault the committee for taking a pass. (Remember last year when Virginia Tech had a Duke win and two Florida State wins and didn’t make it? Seth Greenberg does.) In any case, five teams made the cut and have been matched-up and seeded. We’ll have more in-depth analysis of each of the games, but for now, I just want to take a minute and have a quick look at how the placement of each of the ACC teams affects the chances at a good run in the tournament.

North Carolina (#1 seed in the Midwest)

The Tar Heels don’t have a lot to complain about. Sneaking into position for the third top seed behind Kentucky and Syracuse, North Carolina is strongly positioned for a good run in the tournament. The top half of the Midwest is relatively weak, and UNC’s only reason for complaint has to do with the #2 seed. Kansas is the top #2 seed and if they meet North Carolina in St. Louis, there should be a distinct Jayhawk crowd advantage. By the overall seeding chart, North Carolina should have had Duke as the #2 seed in its region. Of course, since the committee seeks to avoid regions with the top two seeds in the same conference, the two seeds got shuffled around. Potential intrigue on the path to the Final Four? Creighton at the #8 seed sets up the Ames Bowl, where Harrison Barnes would get to face his high school teammate Doug McDermott, who has been having one of the best seasons in college basketball. Meanwhile, the presence of Georgetown, Michigan, and, of course, Kansas summons memories of past tournament showdowns: each of these teams was the runner-up  from each of UNC’s first three national championships. The Kansas match-up also would give us plenty of reason to re-run this amusing clip (not that we need any additional reason to watch it again).

Roy Won't Be Smiling If He Has To Face Kansas In Saint Louis

Duke (#2 seed in the South)

All in all, I think Duke made out fairly well.  Sure, they got stuck in the same region as Kentucky on the 20th anniversary of “The Shot”, but honestly, the championship runs through the Wildcats. If you want to win it all, you will probably have to beat Kentucky. The rest of the region is significantly less impressive. Baylor, Indiana, and Wichita State have all shown signs of weakness, faltering down the stretch. All of these teams are capable of great things, but it’s hard to expect consistent quality out of any of them. The team that stands out as maybe the most dangerous is UNLV. The Rebels have also had their troubles during the course of the season, but they have an element of danger and unpredictability that makes me think that they could offer some nasty surprises for their opponent. It’s reasonable to predict Duke to make the Elite Eight and if the Blue Devils can make it past Kentucky, the rest of their tournament will be a breeze. It sounds so easy when I say it like that, doesn’t it?

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1. Miami Herald: The biggest news to break late on Friday was the suspension of Miami‘s leading scorer Durand Scott. Scott has been deemed ineligible by the NCAA due to impermissible benefits and the Hurricanes weren’t informed until around 5:30 PM yesterday.  Without Scott, Miami didn’t have the firepower to beat Florida State and succumbed to their in-state rivals. Scott is the third player to be suspended because of the on-going NCAA investigation at Miami. Reggie Johnson was suspended for a single game before being reinstated and DeQuan Jones missed the first ten games of the season before his reinstatement. While Miami has to hope that Scott will be swiftly reinstated, the timing could literally not be worse: the Hurricanes are right on the edge of the field and Selection Sunday is tomorrow.
2. Basketball Prospectus: While yesterday’s wisdom held that Miami and North Carolina State each had to win one more game to make it to the Tournament, at least one system already had the Wolfpack and Hurricanes in. While, NC State almost assuredly played themselves into the tournament by toppling Virginia, Miami’s situation is much more interesting. It seems like most folks have Miami pretty squarely out, but the Easy Bubble Solver’s projections offer some cause for optimism in Coral Gables.
3. ESPN: The big news in Chapel Hill was the awkward fall of North Carolina‘s John Henson. Though x-rays indicated that he didn’t break his left wrist which he was using to brace himself, clear discomfort prevented him from being a factor in the game against Maryland. While there’s no word yet on whether Henson will play today, history is skeptical. Roy Williams hasn’t been shy about his indifference to the ACC Tournament. In 2009, the stacked Tar Heels and eventual national champions lost the conference tournament while Williams held out Ty Lawson who was coming off a toe injury. If Henson really wants to play, the coaching staff will probably allow it, but this game seems to mean little to the folks in Chapel Hill.
4. News and Observer:  In the inevitable benchmark category, Kendall Marshall‘s 12 assists against Maryland gave the North Carolina guard the single-season ACC record for assists. Now with 311 assist this season, Marshall surpassed Georgia Tech’s Craig “Noodles” Neal. Of course, Marshall still trails Iona‘s Scott Machado for the most assists on the 2012 season. Machado has 117.
5. Durham Herald-Sun: With Ryan Kelly sitting out this weekend’s tournament with an injury, Duke had to dig a little deeper for some front court help in yesterday’s game. Josh Hairston got the call and responded by playing 17 solid minutes for the Blue Devil’s. His individual statistics aren’t going to blow anyone away, but he seems happy to help his team get the win. Hairston and Duke’s forwards will be tested against the platoons of athletic big men that Florida State sends out . It’s a stern test for Hairston, but one that will only help his team moving forward.

After a chalky Thursday (outside of Virginia Tech’s big win over Clemson), we get to the good stuff. Friday is when the stakes get higher and the going gets good. Today is critical for NC State and Miami, with Maryland and Virginia Tech hanging around to play spoiler, and everyone else with their eye on the big prize: the championship.

1. New York Times: Karl Hess drama continues with the story of how Hess, infamous for ejecting two NC State legends from an RBC Center crowd against conference protocol, turned down a chance to referee the ACC Tournament. Though while Hess may be absent, his presence is still being felt. The three referees who officiated the first game of the tournament wore pieces of masking tape on their shoes with the initials “KH.”
2. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Virginia, a team that had been decimated early in the season by defections has seen it’s depth take a few more hits this week. Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia’s freshman sixth man, underwent surgery for a broken foot on Wednesday and is out for the rest of the season. The Cavaliers had been hoping that Assane Sene, their senior center might be able to return for the tournament, but such hopes were dashed earlier this week when Tony Bennett suspended him for the rest of the season for a violation of team rules. The already shallow Cavaliers may have a tough time sustaining a tournament run with this further blow to bench depth.
3. Washington Post: While Seth Greenberg‘s Hokies managed the only upset of the day against Clemson, Greenberg’s heart seems to be divided. Post writer John Feinstein details the troubles that have beset Greenberg’s brother, Brad. After NCAA infractions as coach at Radford, Brad Greenberg was unceremoniously drummed out of college coaching, thanks to the dreaded show-cause clause. Now in effective exile coaching in the Venezuelan league, Seth can’t help but feel for his beloved brother.
4. News and Observer: Leonard Hamilton won a much deserved award for ACC Coach of the Year, but how did he end up rebuilding a dying a program? A system based on sound defensive principles as well as time and luck seem to be the simple recipe that led to slow but sure rise of Florida State. Leonard Hamilton seems like a good coach and even better person. It’s hard not to root for his continued success.
5. CBS Sports: Though most of the action in the conference is in the tournament, Maryland made some waves on the recruiting trail yesterday. Securing the services of Charles Mitchell, the Terrapins look to greatly shore up their front line with a recruiting class that now features three top-100 recruits. Mitchell joins fellow forwards Shaq Cleare and Jake Layman in the wave of young men that should be descending on College Park to bolster the Terps’ front line.

It’s that special time of year. The tournament begins today in Atlanta and the teams of the Atlantic Conference are buzzing with the excitement and desperation of the opportunity to make closing arguments. Lots of teams have a lot to prove, but let’s zero in on some of the more interesting subplots of today.

1. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: It’s an oft-repeated refrain, but it’s one that deserves further examination: The ACC Tournament isn’t what it used to be. In 1983, this same paper referred to the tournament as the toughest ticket in sports. Today, tickets will be available at the gate. Though the tournament sold out last year, in 2009 and 2010 tickets went on sale to the general public. The last time that happened? 1966. The excitement around the league isn’t what it used to be and, granted, this year’s Atlanta location is much farther away from Tobacco Road than Greensboro, but it’s still a sad and sobering story to see the decline of the once great conference.
2. Raleigh News & Observer: For the first time, television viewers in ACC country will have a choice about which broadcast of the tournament they want to watch. In years past, viewers in places like the Research Triangle in North Carolina got a “local” broadcast by Raycom sports, while the rest of the nation got ESPN’s coverage. Due to the conditions of the new ESPN television deal, ESPN’s ACC Tournament broadcasts will not be blacked out in areas that typically watch ACC play on Raycom. This may seem like a fairly inconsequential development to fans, but as Luke DeCock describes, this is a major battle ground for the high-stakes rating wars of big time college sports. The numbers are staggering and the implications interesting.
3. Washington Times: Patrick Stevens takes a look back at Maryland‘s season and is a little weirded out by what he sees. The Terrapins have had a very odd year plagued by injuries, NCAA suspensions, and a huge changing of the guard with the retirement of Gary Williams. Despite the heroics of Terrell Stoglin and others, Maryland’s season has been little more than disappointing. Though the team clearly seems to want to try to make a run as deep as possible into March, it’s very clear that Mark Turgeon is mostly looking to put this season in the rear view.
4. Boston Globe: How would you feel if you went into the ACC Tournament as the last seed? I’d feel pretty terrible, but the Eagles of Boston College are, as much as possible, optimistic about the team’s opportunities. Like Maryland, the Eagles acknowledge that their brightest days are certainly well ahead of them, and look back on the past season with shaking heads. Still the team is at least saying the right things: Yes this team will be better in two years, but we are also looking to be better now. Boston College knows it played pretty poorly during the regular season, but the team seems to truly believe that they are a better team now. This is probably true, but now all that remains to be seen is if that matters.
5. Blogger So Dear: Do you want to see all the teams in the first round of the tournament compared to Bojangles menu items? Of course you do.

After an eventful and tumultuous season, the two writers on the ACC microsite retreated to our respective Fortresses of Solitude and engaged in ritual fasting, meditation, and research to come up with lists for your enjoyment and edification. Specifically, we are talking about the traditional conference awards, headlined by the Player of the Year Award and the All-Conference teams. Yesterday, the official awards came out, voted on by the ACSMA, which is all fine and good if you like your awards determined without the use of sweat lodges and divination. Spiritually cleansed, we are now ready to present our version of the awards.

Mike Scott is Amazing

Conference Player of the Year

Matt says:

The Player of the Year choice was a very tough one for me. In the end it came down to relative importance. Without Mike Scott, Virginia would be lucky to finish in the top half of the ACC. Without Tyler Zeller, North Carolina still finishes top two. The fact is that Mike Scott was the most efficient offensive player in the ACC by a wide margin. It wasn’t his offensive numbers that made me think twice about my pick. It was defense. Zeller is one of the best post defenders in the league; that’s why he received North Carolina’s award for best defensive player last year over John Henson (the ACC Defensive Player of the Year). But in the end, Scott is a slightly better defensive rebounder (he doesn’t block shots) on a very good defensive team, so I gave him the very slight edge.

Kellen says:

So here’s the thing: offensive efficiency all comes down to how you count it. Looking at Ken Pomeroy’s Offensive Efficiency ratings, Zeller clocks at 121.4 while Mike Scott manages 117.4. This is pace-adjusted so you don’t have to worry about Virginia’s slower tempo. Zeller is a better offensive player (though admittedly Scott carries a heavier load) as well as a better defensive player. Zeller dominated Scott in head-to-head matchups. But really, the reason I give Zeller the nod is simple: if the teams of the ACC were broken apart and we had a draft to pick a team, Zeller is easily the first to go in the draft.

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