Predicting the ACC/Big Ten Challenge

Posted by jnowak on November 27th, 2012

One of the annual marquee non-conference events of the college basketball season arrives this week, and the Big Ten/ACC Challenge is as enticing as ever. With the Big Ten coming in as the presumed toughest conference in the country, it has the opportunity to shine against some of the nation’s most storied programs under a bright spotlight. It’ll be the first true test for some of the conference’s top squads and a chance for the Big Ten to show its substantial depth. The ACC won the first 10 challenges, but the Big Ten has won the last three. Here are a few predictions for the week’s match-ups:

Tuesday’s Games

IU Awaits North Carolina as the Headliner Game Tuesday (US Presswire)

  • Iowa at Virginia Tech (7:15 PM, ESPNU): The Hawkeyes’ hot start was slowed this week by Wichita State, and things don’t get any easier when they travel to face undefeated Virginia Tech. But Fran McCaffery has an upstart group that can rebound the ball. The test will be in slowing the Hokies — expect a high-scoring ballgame. Iowa 88, Virginia Tech 82.
  • Minnesota at Florida State (7:15 PM, ESPN2): The most popular sleeper pick in the conference has been as advertised, even without contributions from All-Big Ten senior Trevor Mbakwe. But the Gophers will need him Tuesday night against a Florida State team that traditionally excels inside. The ‘Noles can score (26th in the country, with 80.4 PPG) but aren’t as tough on the glass as usual (187th overall). That will be the deciding factor. Minnesota 77, Florida State 69.
  • N.C. State at Michigan (7:30 PM, ESPN): What was billed as perhaps the most intriguing game of the Challenge took a bit of a hit when the Wolfpack was beaten soundly by Oklahoma State last week and then snuck by UNC-Asheville. Suffice it to say, Michigan’s freshmen are a bit further along the learning curve than N.C. State’s gifted newcomers. Michigan 79, N.C. State 70. Read the rest of this entry »
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Big Ten M5: 11.27.12 Edition

Posted by jnowak on November 27th, 2012

  1. With another big non-conference game looming with Michigan State’s trip to play at Miami on Wednesday, Tom Izzo said Monday that there’s a chance sophomore guard Travis Trice and possibly even freshman wing Gary Harris could get some minutes. The Spartans have missed the two badly — Harris is nursing a sprained shoulder and Trice has had concussion symptoms since the season opener — in their recent games. MSU snuck by Boise State and Louisiana-Lafayette at home and it’s been clear that the team is fatigued and more turnover-prone without two of its best run-and-gun players. Harris, also the team’s leading scorer, was expected to miss 2-3 weeks, but Izzo says his healing has progressed well.
  2. With this year’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge — the conference’s premier early-season event — on the horizon this week, BigTenNetwork.com is ranking the best games from this year’s Challenge. The ACC handled the Big Ten in the first 10 renditions of the Challenge before the Big Ten came storming back to take the crown the last three years. It seems as if the Big Ten is poised for an excellent all-around season, with Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan making a case for early Final Four picks, and depth is at an all-time high. Which games are you most looking forward to this week?
  3. Many didn’t know what to expect from Illinois this season under first-year head coach John Groce, but the early returns have been stellar. The Illini are undefeated after winning the always-prestigious Maui Invitational and, as the Chicago Sun-Times’ Herb Gould points out, every Maui Invitational champion since 1986 has gone on to the NCAA Tournament. Groce said he’s seen a lot of character in his young team, particularly in coming from behind in a few games. “Is [Maui] the end-all, be-all? No,” Groce told the Sun-Times. “We still have work to do. We have to rebound better. We have to foul less. We have to execute some things better offensively. By no means have we arrived. At the same time, we feel blessed to have had a chance to play for that trophy and to have won it.”
  4. It’s hard to imagine any single player means more to one team in the Big Ten than Tim Frazier does to Penn State. And now that he’s out for the season with a ruptured Achilles, the Nittany Lions are learning how to move on without him for the time being. “We can’t feel sorry for ourselves,” coach Patrick Chambers said Monday, according to StateCollege.com. “The text messages I received when he went down, the text messages I still receive, I went to the football game the other day and everybody is like, ‘I’m so sorry.'” Chambers says the team needs to find ways to work through it, and that starts with the flow of the offense finding its way without its natural point guard and senior leader.
  5. Purdue is certainly rebuilding this year, and the team’s long-term future may have taken a bit of a hit with an injury to recruit Kendall Stephens, a 6’5″ senior guard at St. Charles (IL) East High School. The Indianapolis Star‘s Jeff Washburn reported Monday that Stephens, who scored 30 points and was named MVP of a recent holiday tournament, is playing with a torn labrum in his right shoulder that is expected to require surgery. If so, he’s likely to miss summer workouts before his senior year, which can be a critical time in a freshman’s development if he is to contribute early.
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Worst-Case Scenario at Penn State: Tim Frazier Out For The Season

Posted by jnowak on November 21st, 2012

Things went from bad to worse at Penn State this week. With Tim Frazier done for the season with a ruptured Achilles, the Nittany Lions lost basically their only source of consistent offense early in a season that had already turned ugly. Even after he was injured and played just six minutes in the Nittany Lions’ blowout loss at the hands of Akron (preseason selection to finish second in the MAC East Division), Frazier was still leading the club with 16.3 PPG. The Nittany Lions — with losses already to N.C. State and Akron, and close wins against St. Francis (Pa.) and Providence — are dead-last in the Big Ten in scoring offense, with 58.8 PPG. Take away Frazier’s average (he was second in the conference last year with 18.8 PPG) and that number into scary territory.

Without Tim Frazier, Penn State would be averaging 42.5 PPG this season. Now they’ll see what life without him is like. (Andy Lyons)

The Nittany Lions were already far too dependent on Frazier before the injury occurred. He played all but one minute in the Penn State’s first three games combined, totaling 65 points, which was 34 percent of the team’s total scoring output. It’s natural for a team — especially a lackluster one — to rely heavily on its best player, particularly when he’s an upperclassman. And with Frazier being a point guard, the offense is going through his hands anyhow. But with the Nittany Lions relying so heavily on the All-Big Ten player, it could potentially become a huge problem if, say, that player fouls out late in a game or endures an injury. What happens then? Well, we’re about to find out.

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Big Ten M5: 11.20.12 Edition

Posted by jnowak on November 20th, 2012

  1. The news of the day in Big Ten land was the formal announcement that Maryland would be leaving the ACC and joining the conference for the start of the 2014-15 school year, and that Rutgers was expected to announce a similar move to the Big Ten from the Big East on Tuesday. Such realignment would have a profound impact on the state of basketball in the conference, with the Terrapins known as the perennial No. 3 team in the ACC (Rutgers is a Big East bottom-feeder). Michigan State coach Tom Izzo admitted he enjoys the tradition-rich Big Ten and worries about the increase in travel (New Jersey to Nebraska, anyone?) but says he’s pleased about the proactive approach Jim Delaney and the conference presidents/chancellors have taken during realignment. Iowa coach Fran McCaffery said the location of the two schools opens the conference to a new market and a new world of recruiting that can help not only those additional two schools, but also the universities already positioned in the Big Ten.
  2. Here’s an unfamiliar and somewhat odd concept to come out of basketball camp in Lincoln: High expectations. That’s what coach Tim Miles has for center Andre Almeida, who certainly has a physically imposing presence in the post as he clocks in at 6’11”, 310 pounds. As for what Miles expects? “19 and 7,”he said, according to the Lincoln Journal Star. “Realistically, we need somebody to step up, so it might as well be him,” Miles said. “Why not? Seriously, why not? Because he hasn’t done it in the past, right? That’s why not. But why live that self-fulfilling prophecy? Let’s get him the dang ball where he deserves it and see what he can do with it.” Almeida averaged 5.2 PPG and 3.3 RPG last season as a junior, but his 19/7 against Nebraska-Omaha was exactly what Miles hopes to see out of the big man this season.
  3. One of the most concerning aspects for Wisconsin in last week’s blowout loss at Florida was how the Badgers were handled on the defensive end, allowing the Gators to dictate the pace of the game nearly throughout. That was a point of emphasis in the Badgers’ bounce-back win against Cornell, as Wisconsin provided suffocating defense while holding Cornell to 26.2 percent shooting from the field and 13.3 percent from long range. The win not only helped put to bed the Florida loss, but also a previous Cornell upset. In the second round of the 2010 NCAA Tournament, the Big Red shot 61.1 percent overall and 53.3 percent from three to end the Badgers’ season, 87-69.
  4. The absence of true freshmen Peter Jurkin and Hanner Mosquera-Perea was noticeable in Indiana‘s win against Georgia on Monday night in Brooklyn as the Hoosiers found themselves in a bit of early foul trouble before rallying to avoid the upset. But Indiana may not be without the duo as long as originally expected — the NCAA suspended the two for nine games, meaning they wouldn’t be eligible until the December 15 game against Butler, but that suspension could be reduced on Tuesday, ESPN‘s Andy Katz first reported. The two were suspended right before the Hoosiers’ first regular-season game for receiving improper benefits as AAU players for Indiana Elite.
  5. For a cupcake game — a 69-41 win over Texas Southern — there was a bit of drama in Michigan State‘s home opener, concerning both a big man who was on the floor and one who was not. Derrick Nix did not start after opening Michigan State’s first two games, and Matt Costello made his season debut in a bit of a lineup shakeup for Tom Izzo’s group. The freshman had four points and three rebounds in 11 minutes after returning from a tailbone bruise, while fellow big man Alex Gauna got the nod in favor of Nix. Izzo had hinted at the idea earlier in the month that he might like to switch up the starting lineup and a lesser opponent may have given him just the opportunity to do so. He likes to experiment with his rotation early on and whittle it down later into the year, but a deep frontcourt that also includes Adreian Payne and potentially Branden Dawson and Russell Byrd at the four gives Izzo and the Spartans a wealth of options down low.
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What the Addition of Rutgers and Maryland Means for Big Ten Hoops

Posted by jnowak on November 19th, 2012

It would be misleading and deceitful to imply that conference realignment is about anything other than money (though that hasn’t stopped conference commissioners and university presidents), or that basketball is at the forefront of presidents’ minds when moves are made. But regardless of the motives behind the seismic moves that have taken place across the college athletics landscape over the last handful of years, fans of all the involved schools and of all relevant sports must adjust to the changes. With the swiftly breaking news of Maryland and Rutgers set to join the Big Ten for the 2014-15 school year, here are a few of the basketball implications of the realignment and the likely 14-team Big Ten:

We can only hope Maryland joining the Big Ten will provide us with a few more classics like this game from the 2010 NCAA Tournament.

  • Schedule Changes — With two more teams added to the mix, you can expect that the already-diluted conference basketball schedule will become even more so. As it stands now with 12 Big Ten teams, each school plays 18 conference games. That means each school plays four other conference schools only once, and seven teams twice. If the conference keeps an 18-game conference schedule, under the new 14-team format, each school would then play more fellow Big Ten schools only once and fewer teams twice. What that means: fewer rivalry games and marquee match-ups will be played on an even-keel home-and-home basis, also leaving room for an unbalanced conference schedule across the board. When that’s the case, regular season championships carry less value if teams don’t have a consistent conference slate from top to bottom.
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Big Ten Power Rankings: 11.16.12 Edition

Posted by jnowak on November 16th, 2012

This is the second installment of our weekly Big Ten Power Rankings, which will publish each Friday. This week’s voters were Deepak Jayanti, Joey Nowak and Kevin Trahan of the Big Ten microsite.

Michigan’s talented freshmen class — Glenn Robinson III, Caris LeVert, Spike Albrecht, Nik Stauskas, Mitch McGary — has the Wolverines off to a hot start. (Photo credit: Michigan Athletics)

  1. Indiana (3-0 — The Hoosiers did just what they were supposed to do this week, pounding on Bryant and North Dakota State. Cody Zeller had a double-double against Bryant and guard Kevin (Yogi) Ferrell was named Big Ten freshman of the week. Indiana gets Georgia next and then will play either UCLA or Georgetown in the Progressive Legends Classic. That’s followed by another tough game against North Carolina in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
  2. Michigan (3-0) — Michigan beat up on three cupcakes this week, but got solid performances from its freshmen. Glenn Robinson III is averaging 13.3 PPG and 7.0 RPG, Mitch McGary is tied for the team lead with 7.7 RPG and Nick Stauskas is averaging 11 PPG. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. have both been stellar. The Wolverines will be tested in their next few games. They play Pitt, then Kansas State or Delaware in the NIT Season Tipoff, before an ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup with NC State.
  3. Ohio State (1-0) — We missed out on a nice opportunity to see how good the Buckeyes are when their Friday game against Marquette was cancelled, but they took care of business on Sunday against Albany. If Thad Matta really is going to expand his bench, now is the time to do it.
  4. Michigan State (1-1) — The Spartans had a heck of a week, opening the season on an Air Force Base in Ramstein, Germany (a loss to UConn), before playing in the Champions Classic at the Georgia Dome on Tuesday (a win against Kansas). A lot of Friday’s issues were resolved in time for Tuesday’s big-time win, leaving us again with plenty to like about Tom Izzo‘s team. Read the rest of this entry »
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Early Returns: Evaluating the First Week of Big Ten Basketball

Posted by jnowak on November 15th, 2012

Small sample sizes being what they are, we still think it’s appropriate to take a look at the early results from the first week of games. All the Big Ten teams except Ohio State, Northwestern, Nebraska and Penn State have played at least two games and most teams are gearing up for some a high-profile non-conference tournament of some sort in the next week or two. We’re still a long way from having our questions answered and seeing our preseason prognostications pan out, but it’s worth a look anyhow.

No surprise here: Tim Frazier leads all Big Ten scorers through Wednesday’s games. (Photo credit: theschoolphilly.com)

  • Illinois (2-0) — It may not be much — wins against St. Francis (NY) and Colgate — but the John Groce era got off on the right foot. The interesting thing (and it could be a good sign) is that the Illini have found ways to win without shooting the ball particularly well. They’ve shot 44 percent from the field and 56 percent from the free throw line in their first two games, but have shot well from three, defended well, and kept their turnovers down in a way that they were unable to during most of exhibition play. 
  • No. 1 Indiana (2-0) — So far, so good for the top-ranked Hoosiers. It’s disappointing that Tom Crean doesn’t have a better non-conference slate scheduled for us to get a real good grasp on the talent level of his group. Georgia on November 19 may be the first relatively tough game for the Hoosiers before a November 27 meeting with No. 14 North Carolina. Other than that, a December 15 meeting against a rebuilding Butler group might be the only other litmus test. Don’t expect the Hoosiers to really have their backs up against the wall until well after the New Year.
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Four Thoughts on Michigan State vs. Kansas…

Posted by jnowak on November 14th, 2012

With a 67-64 win against No. 4 Kansas in the Champions Classic in Atlanta on Tuesday night, No. 8 Michigan State avoided starting consecutive seasons 0-2 for the first time since the first two years of Spartan basketball (1899 and 1900). Now, after a grueling five days that included two games on a national stage — on Friday at Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany and Tuesday at the Georgia Dome — the Spartans can settle in to a more manageable non-conference slate with a 1-1 start. There’s plenty to feel good about with this group of Spartans, but still some early-season concerns. Here are a few thoughts from Tuesday night’s game:

Keith Appling took over late in Michigan State’s 67-64 win over Kansas on Tuesday. (Paul Abell/US Presswire)

  1. Keith Appling might just be ready to lead — In more ways than one, perhaps. The Spartans desperately need a go-to scorer, and they desperately need a leader this season after the departure of Draymond Green. Appling showed on Tuesday that he can be both, turning in a game-high 19 points — including a late 3-pointer that appeared to be the dagger, and then a beautiful drive-and-scoop off the glass that ultimately was — and taking control of the game when the Spartans needed leadership. Appling had a realization of sorts after the UConn game that the offense was going to have to run through him this season. It can be a difficult thing to harness, particularly since he’ll be shifting between the one and two when Travis Trice is healthy and in the rotation, and because the Spartans want to run the fast break but also have a wealth of half-court sets. But Appling’s ability to shoot the ball presented itself on Tuesday (6-for-9 from the field and 3-for-3 from deep) and he turned the ball over just twice in 38 minutes. But most importantly, those shots came in crunch time. The Spartans needed big baskets a couple times against Connecticut and never got them. Tuesday, Michigan State’s go-to scorer obliged. Read the rest of this entry »
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Some Predictions for Individual Big Ten Awards This Season

Posted by jnowak on November 12th, 2012

With the season getting under way, the Big Ten Microsite writers put their heads together and predicted who will come away with some conference hardware this season. Take a look:

  • Big Ten Player of the Year: Cody Zeller, Indiana — A pretty easy choice, all things considered. Zeller is the best player returning to the consensus No.1 team in the country, and a near unanimous selection to be an Associated Press preseason All-American. The sophomore center has it all — good hands, smarts, a nose for the ball around the basket, and runs the floor well. This is his award to lose.
  • All-Big Ten First Team: Cody Zeller, Indiana — see above; Trey Burke, Michigan — the conference’s best point guard who had a breakout season as a freshman and flirted with the NBA; Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State — another AP preseason All-American poised to be a star with the departure of Jared Sullinger; Tim Frazier, Penn State — the conference’s most dangerous scorer, but with plenty of pressure on his shoulders; Drew Crawford, Northwestern — Crawford should be the go-to guy in Evanston this season, with the perimeter all to himself to do what he does best.

No surprise here: Indiana’s Cody Zeller is our preseason Big Ten Player of the Year (Sandra Dukes/US Presswire)

  • All-Big Ten Second Team: Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota — a constant double-double threat on the mend from ACL surgery; Aaron Craft, Ohio State — perhaps the best floor general and defensive player in the league; Keith Appling, Michigan State — a true scorer who can find his groove in Michigan State’s fast-paced offense; Brandon Paul, Illinois — the best player on an Illinois team trying to find itself; Roy Devyn Marble, Iowa — a big part of the resurgence in Iowa City. (Others considered: Mike Bruesewitz, Wisconsin; Derrick Nix, Michigan State; Terone Johnson, Purdue)
  • Defensive Player of the Year: Aaron Craft, Ohio State — A predictable choice for a guy who has already won the award once and has been on the All-Big Ten Defensive Team each of his first two seasons in Columbus. Read the rest of this entry »
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Previewing Michigan State-UConn in the Armed Forces Classic

Posted by jnowak on November 9th, 2012

What a way to kick off the college basketball season. For the second year in a row, Michigan State will represent the Big Ten on a national stage to open the season while also paying tribute to our country’s armed forces. After playing in front of a national television audience (that included President Barack Obama onsite in attendance) against North Carolina on the U.S.S. Carl Vinson last year, the Spartans open the 2012-13 on Friday against Connecticut at Ramstein Air Base in southwest Germany (5:30 PM ET, ESPN).

Michigan State will wear these uniforms Friday night as they honor the U.S. troops for the second consecutive year in the Spartans’ season opener against UConn. (Photo courtesy @MSU_Basketball)

The No. 6 Spartans are coming off a season in which they overachieved by most standards, winning a share of the Big Ten regular season title, the Big Ten Tournament, and advancing to the Sweet Sixteen as one of the NCAA Tournament’s four No. 1 seeds. UConn’s 2011-12 season took a step in the opposite direction. While the Spartans weren’t figured by many to contend on a national scale, the Huskies were. And they disappointed in a huge way, sputtering to a 20-14 record and a first-round exit at the hands of Iowa State in the NCAA Tournament the year after they won it all. “We’re playing a team that’s not ranked but you’re going to see is awfully good,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said, according to MLive.com. “This team will compete in that league (the Big East), no problem. Don’t look for there to be great falloff here.”

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