Michigan State knows plenty about the Kenyon Martin Effect. When Martin — the consensus 2000 National Player of the Year as a senior at Cincinnati after averaging 18.9 points, 9.7 boards, and 3.5 blocks per game — broke his leg in the Conference USA Tournament, it drastically affected the Bearcats’ hopes for a national title. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee took notice as well, and knocked Cincinnati down to a #2 seed, when they probably would have otherwise been the #1 overall seed. It proved to be somewhat prophetic as the Bearcats were upset in the second round by Tulsa, and MSU went on to win Tom Izzo’s only national championship.

Without Branden Dawson, can the Spartans win the Big Ten Tournament or make a run in the Big Dance? (Daniel Mears / Detroit News)

Branden Dawson — the Michigan State freshman wing who tore his ACL in Sunday’s loss to Ohio State ––  is no Kenyon Martin. Martin went on to be the #1 pick in the NBA Draft that year and has had a nice pro career, while Dawson still has plenty of room to grow though he likely has the highest ceiling of anyone on this Spartans squad. But how will Dawson’s injury affect Michigan State’s postseason chances and the chances the Committee gives them? The Spartans still have to play the Big Ten Tournament (they will be the #1 seed in Indianapolis this weekend), but are unlikely to receive a #1 seed in the Big Dance. If they win the Big Ten Tourney, they are likely a lock for a #2 seed. If they fizzle out, a #3 seed is possible.

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1. Because of a couple of injury setbacks, Robbie Hummel isn’t the physical player he once was, or he would likely be challenging Draymond Green and Jared Sullinger for Big Ten Player of the Year honors. But the senior has kept his head up through it all and deserves recognition for the way he has finished his career at Purdue. Hummel has really turned it on the last few games, determined to end his time in West Lafayette with a bang.
2. For weeks, we have been marveling at all the things that Tom Izzo has his Michigan State squad doing right. Now, we are looking at all the things that must change in order for the Spartans to finish the season undefeated at home with a win against Ohio State this weekend and secure the Big Ten title outright. What a difference a loss makes. True enough, Izzo has been saying all season that this team has a high ceiling, but its margin for error can be quite small. Those errors were at work this week in a 70-55 loss to Indiana. Matt Charboneau asks whether Keith Appling can regain his confidence, Brandon Wood can play consistently, and Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne can defend regularly? And can they do it in time to make it count?
3. Heading down to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Tournament? Tickets? Check. Hotel? Check. Places nearby to eat and enjoy the game? Check. The Indianapolis Star has the all-important guide to where Big Ten fans can enjoy the tournament (outside of Conseco Fieldhouse, of course) during the Tournament. Make sure you check it out so you don’t accidentally stumble into your rival’s bar.
4. If only Indiana could play all of its NCAA Tournament games at Assembly Hall, then it would certainly be a favorite to reach the Final Four. Still, Grantland’s Shane Ryan says, the Hoosiers could be difficult to deal with come the Big Dance. Indiana has beaten three Top 5 teams this year (Ohio State, Kentucky, and Michigan State) and Ryan says this group is similar to a past Indiana team that garnered some March success. Can Tom Crean replicate that magic?
5. If you could become just the fifth player in your program’s history to score 1,000 points, pull down 500 rebounds and register 150 blocks and still have your career be considered “underwhelming,” would you take that? That’s how Chip Scoggins sees Ralph Sampson III‘s career at Minnesota as it comes to a close. Scoggins says that, despite having started 113 games for the Golden Gophers, Sampson’s impact on the program has been minimal. What do you think? Would you have expected or hoped for more?

It’s hard to believe, but we’re almost there. March is creeping up, and the Big Ten regular season is coming to a close. Michigan State has surprised just about everyone outside the walls of Breslin Center in East Lansing, already securing a share of the conference title, but there’s plenty left to shake out in terms of seeding for the 2012 Big Ten Tournament. There are four pairs of teams tied throughout the standings, which means eight squads have plenty left to play for. Here’s an updated look at what the bracket would look like if play ended today, based on the conference standings heading into this week’s games. As usual, the tiebreaker results are explained below.

The Spartans are in line for the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Can they carry their success into Indy? (AP)

• #1 : Michigan State (24-5 overall, 13-3 Big Ten)
• #2: Michigan (21-8, 11-5)*
• #3: Ohio State (23-6, 11-5)*
• #4: Wisconsin (21-8, 10-6)
• #5: Indiana (22-7, 9-7)**
• #6: Purdue (19-10, 9-7)**
• #7: Northwestern (17-11, 7-9)***
• #8: Iowa (15-14, 7-9)***
• #9: Illinois (17-12, 6-10)
• #10: Minnesota (17-12, 5-11)
• #11: Nebraska (12-15, 4-12)****
• #12: Penn State (12-17, 4-12)****

1. At the season’s onset, Ohio State was an easy choice for the Big Ten title, a likely Final Four participant and a trendy choice to be cutting down the nets in New Orleans. It was practically national title or bust for Thad Matta, who is yet to win the big one. Now, things are slipping away in front of our eyes. You can’t help but get a sense that the Buckeyes are close to implosion, particularly after Matta uncharacteristically practically threw his players under the bus after a Senior Day loss to Wisconsin on Sunday. Weeks ago, we were wondering if Ohio State could run the table in the conference. At this rate, we might be wondering just how many more they can win.
2. Many left Purdue for dead when Matt Painter made the widely-publicized decision to kick Kelsey Barlow off the team prior to the Michigan State game earlier this month, but the Boilermakers have responded like few expected they would. Other conference teams seem to have benefited from “addition by subtraction” in recent memory (looking at you, Michigan State). Could this be the case with the Boilermakers? They have won four of their last five, with a great shot to make it five of six with a home meeting against Penn State up next. Robbie Hummel clearly does not intend on ending his career at Purdue quietly. Does anyone want to play the Boilermakers in the Big Ten Tournament?
3. To fully realize just how unselfish this Michigan State team can be, you need look no further than the inside play of Derrick Nix. Tom Izzo likes to call his junior center “Tragic Johnson” — a play on the former Michigan State superstar point guard’s nickname — for Nix’s desire to pass the ball. At times, Nix would be almost better off just going up for the basket rather than looking for the extra pass. But that unselfishness is what brought the Spartans to this surprising share of the Big Ten title, the Detroit Free Press‘ Michael Rosenberg writes. “We always talk to him about that,” senior captain Draymond Green said of Nix. “He’s so unselfish. But how can you get mad at somebody for being unselfish?”
4. Bruce Weber probably feels like he’s on an island right now, with his Fighting Illini having lost nine of their last 11 games. It’s all but certain that this will be his last season in Champaign, but Weber has the support of Iowa coach Fran McCaffery.  “I’ve known Bruce a long time. I think the world of him as a person,” McCaffery said Tuesday. “I think he’s done a terrific job there. He’s had phenomenal success. I feel for him. I wish nobody in our business would have to go through it.”
5. Speaking of Illinois, can we talk about the basketball program without focusing on the head coach’s job security? (Certainly, Bruce Weber would appreciate it.) In honor of the Assembly Hall’s 50th birthday, the News-Gazette‘s Paul Klee pens a nice tribute to the Fighting Illini’s home digs. And it’s not just the Illini that have called it home. Frank Sinatra, Garth Brooks, Prince, Elvis and more have all called the place home, if only for a day or two. With an important home game against Michigan up next for Illinois, maybe the facility can deliver the team a present of its own.

1. Whatever they did, it worked. The Detroit News’ Rod Beard takes you inside Michigan‘s intense preparation for Northwestern‘s unique style of play ahead of the Wolverines’ overtime win in Evanston on Tuesday night, helping to keep Michigan on pace in the conference standings. It details coaches’ late hours, the film review, and how the Wolverines planned to attack Northwestern leading scorer John Shurna. The senior finished with just 14 points, well below his average, and Michigan held him in check during the late stages Tuesday night. Looks like all that prep paid off.
2. Speaking of Shurna, he may not have been on his game on Tuesday night, but the Chicago Tribune‘s David Haugh points out that there’s a lot more to Shurna than just putting the ball in the hoop. The Wildcats senior and Northwestern all-time career scoring leader re-reads the Harry Potter books and is a big believer in humanitarian efforts, for starters. It’s safe to say he’s got a pretty full resume.
3. It seems Tubby Smith is going to keep tinkering with his Minnesota lineup until he sees something he really likes. With the Golden Gophers on the bubble and hosting Michigan State on Wednesday night, it’s a prime opportunity for Minnesota to make a statement. It looks like that means another lineup change. Amelia Rayno from the Star Tribune writes that fans are likely to see the ninth different starting lineup on Wednesday. Smith didn’t say who the new five would be, but Rayno has good insight into who may be coming and who may be going.
4. The list of things that may have Bruce Weber in scalding-hot water after Illinois wraps up this disappointing season is a long one. But Ken Thompson of the Lafayette Journal-Courier says straying from the principles of his mentor was part of Weber’s downfall. Thompson writes that Weber — who spent 18 years under Gene Keady at Purdue — never instilled the mixture of toughness and affection that Keady had with his Boilermakers team, and it cost him at Illinois.
5. As for Purdue nowadays, it’s going to have to change with the departure of Kelsey Barlow. The Boilermakers are trying to reach the NCAA Tournament for the sixth consecutive season, but their task is tougher since coach Matt Painter kicked Barlow off the team last week. Painter said it depends on the match-ups, but you can expect to see Lewis Jackson, Terone Johnson, Ryne Smith, and D.J. Byrd all step up and expand their roles. With four games remaining on the Big Ten regular season schedule and the Big Ten Tournament ahead, those players have the opportunity to make the most of their enhanced roles.

1. If Illinois is to succeed in the Big Ten — whether it’s under Bruce Weber or a different head coach — the Fighting Illini likely need to succeed in recruiting top players out of Chicago. It’s a hotbed of talent — guys like Anthony Davis and Derrick Rose come to mind, with players like Jabari Parker and Cliff Alexander set to come out of the Windy City in the next few years — and right in Illinois’ backyard. But the relationship between the school and the city can be a complicated one, Loren Tate writes for The News-Gazette. If Weber or the next coach can figure it out, it could mean a huge leap forward for the program.
2. Is Iowa‘s Matt Gatens the most underrated player in the Big Ten? The senior has been sturdy for the Hawkeyes, scoring a team-high 14.88 PPG and dropping at least 15 in his last six games. Gatens played all 40 minutes in Iowa’s upset of Indiana, scoring 30 points on 10-for-18 shooting. “He was just in a great flow and rhythm,” Indiana coach Tom Crean said. “He’s not only one of the better shooters or guards in this league. He’s also one of the better ones in the country. That is a four-year guy who has been doing it at a high level — a great guy to have walk into your program.” And the fact that he’s one of three Hawkeyes with fathers that have ties to the program makes it an even better story.
3. Speaking of Gatens, his performance against the Hoosiers was one thing that stood out to the Indianapolis Star‘s Terry Hutchens in the game. It was yet another disappointing road performance for the baffling Hoosiers, who often seem unbeatable in Bloomington, but mediocre away from home. Among Hutchens’ other notes are Iowa coach Fran McCaffery‘s thoughts on Cody Zeller, the disappearing act of Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls‘ search for confidence.
4. Nebraska hasn’t finished its first season in the Big Ten, but the Omaha World-Herald‘s Tom Shatel already believes the Cornhuskers are in need of change in the program. He says this difficult task must start with the man who has already worked wonders in the athletic program: Tom Osborne. The former football coach has the opportunity to make Nebraska a winning program, Shatel says, by bringing in a coach who can recruit at a high level and showing that the department is committed to the basketball program like it is to the football team. Could a change be coming?
5. Without question, Purdue could have used the services of D.J. Byrd and Kelsey Barlow on Sunday against Michigan State, but head coach Matt Painter knew he had a tough decision to make. Byrd will rejoin the team, but Barlow is out of second chances. “It’s disappointing,” Painter said. “There’s no doubt about it. It’s disappointing because when you put in time with guys and you give guys a second chance, that’s what it’s all about. You think about the chances you get in life. You think about somebody sticking by you.”

The depth of the Big Ten is unmatched nationwide this season, which should make for an exceptional conference tournament this year in Indianapolis. Add to it the fact that Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, and Northwestern still have plenty to play for and could make their hay during that weekend. Here’s a sneak peek at what the Big Ten Tournament bracket would look like if play ended today, based on the conference standings heading into this week’s games. (There are a few teams tied, so tiebreaker results are explained below.)

Will This Be the 2012 Big Ten Championship Game? (AP)

• #1 : Michigan State (22-5 overall, 11-3 Big Ten)
• #2: Michigan (20-7, 10-4)*
• #3: Ohio State (22-5, 10-4)*
• #4: Wisconsin (20-7, 9-5)
• #5: Indiana (20-7, 8-7)
• #6: Purdue (17-10, 7-7)
• #7: Northwestern (16-10, 6-8)**
• #8: Iowa (14-13, 6-8)**
• #9: Illinois (16-11, 5-9)***
• #10: Minnesota (17-10, 5-9)***
• #11: Nebraska (12-13, 4-10)
• #12: Penn State (12-16, 4-11)

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Wisconsin came into Breslin Center in East Lansing hoping to exact some revenge for Michigan State‘s rare win in Madison on January 3, but left after a worse thumping than their loss at the Kohl Center. The Spartans are peaking right now, playing the kind of defense Tom Izzo loves to see and executing game plans exceptionally. Here are a few things that stood out in the Spartans’ 69-55 victory Thursday night.

Branden Dawson and Michigan State made another statement Thursday against Wisconsin. (Al Goldis/AP)

1. Keith Appling’s performance — The sophomore guard is vital to Michigan State’s chances of winning the conference championship and advancing deep into the NCAA Tournament, and he showed why on Thursday night. He controlled the Spartans’ offense (four assists and just two turnovers in 35 minutes), got into the lane, and was equally — if not more — important on the defensive end. Appling proved last season he could be one of Michigan State’s perimeter defenders and kept Wisconsin star Jordan Taylor out of sorts the entire evening (Taylor finished with just three field goals). The Spartans don’t need Appling to put up 20 points every game, but if he can be reliable defensively, keep the team’s offensive flow in rhythm and remain a threat to get to the hoop, he takes this team to another level. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Wednesday night’s 67-62 loss to Purdue may have been the nail in the coffin as far as Bruce Weber‘s job goes at Illinois, and it only seems more so when you hear the coach address the situation. Weber sounded defeated after the game, claiming responsibility for many of the team’s shortcomings and admitting he should have done some things differently to help the Fighting Illini better succeed. “The sad thing about the whole thing — and I guess it’s my fault — is instead of creating toughness and developing a team, I coached not to lose all year,” Weber said, according to the Decatur Herald-Review. “That’s really sad.”
2. What a difference a year makes in Bloomington. As the Indianapolis Star‘s Bob Kravitz points out, it wasn’t long ago that 20-win seasons were the norm for the Indiana basketball program. Then Kelvin Sampson happened. Tom Crean was brought in to pick up the pieces and, all of a sudden, Hoosiers fans were stuck with 20-loss seasons instead. But after going 12-20 a season ago, the Hoosiers have reached that 20-win plateau and it seems finally safe to say that basketball is back in Bloomington.
3. When you think of great freshmen in the Big Ten, the names that quickly come to mind are Cody Zeller, Trey Burke, and Branden Dawson. But Iowa‘s Aaron White has been as good as any newcomer this season, and seems to have quite the future ahead of him with the Hawkeyes. White is averaging 10.2 PPG and a team-best 5.2 RPG and, after he was only lightly recruited out of high school, is quickly making coach Fran McCaffery look very bright for bringing him on board.
4. Earlier this week, we took a look at the Big Ten’s four legitimate title contenders and what their remaining schedules mean for their quest for the crown. On Thursday, AnnArbor.com‘s Nick Baumgardner examined the four most important players for those contenders. And if you think the list is a no-brainer, with guys like Big Ten Player of the Year candidates Jared Sullinger and Draymond Green, think again.
5. Michigan State‘s do-everything senior Draymond Green likes to talk a big game, but he’s also shown that he can back it up. Green is one of just a handful of front-runners for Big Ten Player of the Year,  but says he sometimes wishes he was playing in the past. “They changed the rules,” Green told the Detroit Free Press, in reference to the difference between the game now and in the ’80s. Not just all the talking, but “you could chuck somebody and get away with it. You could slam somebody and get away with it.” Right now, Green will have to settle for letting his game do most of the talking.

With all due respect to the other eight teams still with a handful of meaningful games left on their schedule, the chase for the Big Ten regular season championship is a four-horse contest. Entering Wednesday night, Ohio State has a half-game lead on Michigan State, with Michigan a full game back of the Buckeyes and Wisconsin 1.5 games back of first place. All four teams have proved their worth and — despite the preseason expectations that Ohio State would run away with the conference — have the capabiliy to represent the Big Ten through March. But only one team can win the title, so who has the best shot? Today we’ll take a look at the four teams’ remaining conference schedules to give you an idea.

Ohio State and Wisconsin will tangle once more before all is said and done. ( Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE)

• #5 Michigan State (20-5 overall, 9-3 Big Ten) — Right off the bat, it’s pretty safe to say the Spartans have the toughest road of the four contenders. If Michigan State can weather this storm (they’ve got five games coming up in 13 days) and win the title, they will certainly be deserving of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. It’s not hard to imagine the Spartans losing five of their last six games (three are on the road, and two at home are against teams mentioned below) and dropping off the table entirely. Thursday’s home game against Wisconsin looms large, with trips to hostile road environments Purdue and Minnesota (both bubble teams, which can translate to desperation). Nebraska at home should be a gimme, but that’s followed by a trip to Bloomington, where the Hoosiers have lost just once this year, and a rematch against Ohio State to end the season. Ouch. Read the rest of this entry »