Pac-12 Power Rankings: Week 14

Posted by Connor Pelton on February 15th, 2012

Here’s a look at the power rankings that Drew and I have compiled after the 14th week of Pac-12 games:

1. California, 20-6 (10-3): The Golden Bears stay on top after an impressive sweep in Los Angeles. After easily defeating USC on Thursday to regain a share of first place in the Pac-12, the Bears completed the sweep by getting a big win against UCLA two days later. Despite a big run in the final minutes that was led by senior guard Jerime Anderson, Cal still won by double digits after building as much as a 17-point lead earlier in the second half. Up Next: 2/16 vs. Oregon

2. Oregon, 18-7 (9-4): The Ducks have played themselves back into the bubble conversation after sweeping the Washington schools at home last week. After destroying Washington on Thursday, Oregon completed the sweep by holding down a feisty Washington State team in the final minutes on Saturday. The Ducks must win four of their final five regular season games to stay in the at-large conversation. Up Next: 2/16 @ California

Junior forward E.J. Singler led the Ducks to a sweep of the Washington schools. (credit: Kevin Casey)

3. Arizona, 18-8 (9-4): It wasn’t always in the prettiest of fashions, but when everything was said and done on Saturday in Tucson, the Wildcats had taken both games from the Rocky Mountain schools. With the bright ESPN lights shining on them, Arizona struggled early on against Colorado before pulling away for a 71-57 win. Saturday morning was even more dicey for the Cats as Utah came out on fire. The Utes pulled out to a 13-point advantage before Arizona even woke up. Eventually, the Utes cooled down and Arizona heated up, but a nine-point home win against a 5-20 team isn’t what the selection committee likes to see four weeks before Selection Sunday. Up Next: 2/16 @ Washington State

4. Washington, 17-8 (10-3): The Huskies appeared to play themselves out of NCAA at-large bid after their trip to Oregon. It would have been one thing if Washington had come back from their disappointing loss on Thursday and dominated Oregon State, but the committee isn’t going to look highly upon their ugly three-point victory against a bad Beaver team. The Huskies are still in a tie for first in the conference, but they needed a good road trip to stay in the at-large picture. Up Next: 2/16 vs. Arizona State Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Bubble Trouble: Volume II

Posted by Connor Pelton on February 11th, 2012

In this weekly piece we will be comparing blind tournament résumés. Each week we will take three Pac-12 teams that are on the bubble and compare them to three national teams that are facing the same fate. Since the Pac-12 is in such a down year, we realize that we are going to run out of NCAA Tournament bubble teams pretty quickly. That’s why in the coming weeks you will see some NIT and even CBI bubble predictions. If you did not see last week’s post explaining everything, please go here.

*All numbers and rankings as of February 11

Team 1 Team 2
Winning Percentage: .680 Winning Percentage: .666
RPI: 63 RPI: 58
SOS: 62 SOS: 66
Quality Wins (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 47 Quality Wins (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 28, 48
Bad Losses (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 106, 72, 75, 76 Bad Losses (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 203, 82, 77

This is a very close battle. We’ll start by calling the winning percentages, RPI’s, and SOS’s even; There’s just not too big of a difference in any given category to give the edge to a specific team. Team two, however, edges out their counterpart in quality wins. I’m going to call the bad losses even, because even though team one has four of them to team two’s three, three of their four are all ranked in the seventies of the RPI. Team two has a 200-level loss in there, which is a big no-no on a résumé. I’m still taking team two to edge out team one, but I honestly wouldn’t feel good sending either of these teams to the Big Dance. Click the jump to see whom the résumés really belong to. Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Pac-12 Game Of The Week: Washington at Oregon

Posted by Connor Pelton on February 9th, 2012

Looking at the rest of the Pac-12 slate, it’s tough to find a bigger game than the one coming up tonight in Eugene. That’s where first place Washington meets fourth place Oregon in a game with huge conference crown implications. For the visiting Huskies, a loss won’t make or break their chances at a conference crown, but they need every good win they can get if they want to earn an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. On the other side is Oregon, who are losers of its last two games against upper-half conference teams. Not only does that create seperation between the Ducks and the top of the Pac, but it also gives those teams tiebreakers over the Ducks for Pac-12 Tournament seeding. Obviously, a win tonight would be huge for the Ducks. While the ship for an at-large bid has sailed, the Ducks need to do everything they can down the stretch to finish in the top four of the Pac-12. That would mean a first round bye in the Pac-12 Tourney, giving Oregon a solid shot at taking the Pac-12’s automatic bid. There’s no better time to start that journey than tonight.

Oregon guard Devoe Joseph leads the Ducks with 15.8 PPG. (credit: Eric Evans)

If Oregon is to have a chance in this one, it will need to shoot the ball better than it did in the first meeting between these two teams. In that New Year’s Eve ESPN2 affair, the Ducks shot just 21.7% from behind the arc. Guard Devoe Joseph was targeted and shut down by the Husky defense, going 0-5 from three and scoring just four points overall. In order to contend with the plethora of Husky sharpshooters (C.J. Wilcox, Abdul Gaddy, and Terrence Ross, to name a few), Joseph needs to have a huge night shooting the ball; Not to mention Johnathan Loyd and Garrett Sim. Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Pac-12 Power Rankings: Week 13

Posted by Connor Pelton on February 8th, 2012

Here’s a look at the power rankings that Drew and I have compiled after the 13th week of Pac-12 games:

1. California, 18-6 (8-3): Despite Washington taking the lead in the real Pac-12 standings, I still have the Golden Bears on top here for a couple of reasons. For one, the Golden Bears defeated the Huskies in Seattle earlier in the season, which is Washington’s only home conference loss to date. Secondly, despite having a better conference record, the Huskiesl have two fewer wins and an extra loss compared to Cal. Part of the reason for that are Washington’s bad nonconference losses to Nevada and South Dakota State. Up Next: 2/9 @ USC

2. Washington, 16-7 (9-2): The Huskies move up two spots after sweeping the LA schools at home. On Thursday night they came back from a ten-point deficit with just 6:02 remaining to defeat UCLA, 71-69. Things were a little easier (to say the least) on Saturday night when the Huskies were all over USC for a 69-41 win. Up Next: 2/9 @ Oregon

Tony Wroten, Jr. leads the Huskies with 16.7 PPG. (credit: Stephen Brashear)

3. Colorado, 16-7 (8-3): The Buffaloes couldn’t have asked for a better week. On Thursday they shot a lightning-hot 51% from the field to run Oregon State out of the Coors Event Center for a 82-60 victory. Saturday night things were much more dicey, with the Buffs escaping for a controversial one-point win over Oregon. The Buffs needed the sweep to stay in contention for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament, and a split this weekend in Arizona is also crucial. Up Next: 2/9 @ Arizona

4. Oregon, 16-7 (7-4): The Ducks knew coming into the week that a sweep in the Rocky Mountains was unlikely, but they didn’t know just how close they would come. Trailing 71-69 with seven seconds left, Oregon forward Olu Ashaolu put in the game-tying layup and was fouled in the process. Ashaolu missed the free throw and Buffalo guard Nate Tomlinson took the ball all the way up the court. His layup to beat the buzzer appeared to not only be blocked cleanly by E.J. Singler, but came after the buzzer sounded as well. However, after reviewing the play, officials determined that the foul came before the clock reached triple-zeroes, giving Tomlinson a pair of free throws. He put home the first, missed the second intentionally, and Oregon was sent back to Eugene with a split on the trip. Up Next: 2/9 vs. Washington Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Bubble Trouble: Volume I

Posted by Connor Pelton on February 4th, 2012

In this weekly piece we will be comparing blind tournament résumés. Each week we will take three Pac-12 teams that are on the bubble and compare them to three national teams that are facing the same fate. Since the Pac-12 is in such a down year, we realize that we are going to run out of NCAA Tournament bubble teams pretty quickly. That’s why in the coming weeks you will see some NIT and even CBI bubble predictions. We know that we aren’t the only Pac-12 basketball degenerates around here, and we understand that most of you could easily guess the Pac-12 team by seeing their good wins, record, etc. That’s why we’re putting a new twist to these résumés; You won’t see any records or team names, instead, those will be replaced by winning percentage and the RPI rank of their opponents. If you’re confused, read on anyway. We’ll give you all the answers after revealing to whom the résumés really belong to.

*All numbers and rankings as of February 3

Team 1 Team 2
 Winning Percentage: .727  Winning Percentage: .760
 RPI: 89  RPI: 38
 SOS: 152  SOS: 58
 Quality Wins (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 18, 59, 81  Quality Wins (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 20
 Bad Losses (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 127, 144  Bad Losses (Opponents’ RPI Rank): 141, 110

 

Take a quick glance at both résumés and it appears that team two is the logical choice here. Their winning percentage is only slightly better, but the key lies in the RPI and SOS numbers. Team two boasts an RPI ranking that is 47 spots ahead of their counterpart, and their SOS is 94 spots better. The lack of quality wins is the only thing I have reservations about. Click the jump to see whom the résumés really belong to.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Pac-12 Power Rankings: Week 12

Posted by Connor Pelton on February 1st, 2012

Here’s a look at the power rankings that Drew and I have compiled after the 12th week of Pac-12 games:

1. California, 17-5 (7-2): The Golden Bears hold steady at number one after dispatching rival Stanford on Sunday night, 69-59. Sophomore guard Allen Crabbe led Cal with 18 points. The Bears are currently tied for first in the real conference standings with Washington, a team they beat two weeks ago. Up Next: 2/2 vs. Arizona

2. Stanford, 15-6 (5-4): Despite the aforementioned loss for the Cardinal, Stanford slides into Oregon‘s spot for a couple of reasons. One, California is slightly better than Oregon State, and two, the Cardinal’s loss came on the road while Oregon’s was at home. At this point, I don’t see either the Cardinal or Ducks pulling an at-large bid into the NCAA’s. Up Next: 2/2 vs. Arizona State

Senior forward/center Josh Owens leads Stanford with 12.9 PPG. (Credit: Paul Sakuma)

3. Oregon, 15-6 (6-3): The Ducks fall to number three after an embarrasing loss to rival Oregon State on Sunday at Matthew Knight Arena. The Beavers would trail by as many as ten before mounting a huge comeback midway thru the second half. The run put Oregon State up by as many as 12, and despite great efforts from Devoe Joseph and Garrett Sim, the Ducks would never completely close the gap. The final result was a five-point victory for the Beavers, knocking the Ducks to one game back in the Pac-12 standings and moving the Beavs into solid contention for an NIT bid. Up Next: 2/2 @ Utah

4. Washington, 14-7 (7-2): The Huskies moved into a tie for first in the real conference standings this week, which is good enough for a two-spot jump in this week’s power rankings. After a lackluster 60-54 win in Tempe on Thursday, the Huskies went into the McKale Center looking for first place and a signature win to add to their tournament résumé. They got it. The Dawgs were able to build a double-digit lead after playing a tight 26 minutes of basketball, but the Cats would come storming back, in similar fashion as they did against Oregon. In the end it was C.J. Wilcox who saved the day for Washington as the sophomore put home a pair of free throws with five seconds left to build the lead and final result back up to two. Up Next: 2/2 vs. UCLA

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

20 Questions: Pac-12 Style

Posted by Connor Pelton on January 30th, 2012

Inspired by last week’s “21 Questions” with Indiana, UNLV, Syracuse, and Murray State, here’s a look at 20 questions (and answers) related to the Pac-12 after the first half of conference play.

Jared Cunningham (left) and Tony Wroten, Jr. (right) are two favorites for Pac-12 Player of the Year. (Elaine Thompson)

1.  If you could pick one remaining game as a must-see for everyone in the country, what would it be?

  • Washington at Oregon on February 9 will be a thriller. Not only is it a rivalry game in one of the best arenas in college basketball, but the winner will have a huge say who goes on to win this conference.

2.  Which team from the bottom half of the conference has the best chance of coming back and winning the Pac-12?

  • My money would be on UCLA and the Wear twins, but wins at Washington (February 2) and home against California (February 11) will be huge in deciding that.

3.  Will Oregon State win a conference road game?

  • They should win in Salt Lake City on February 4, but I don’t see another opportunity besides that. [Ed. Note: And obviously Oregon now.]

4.  Since the Pac is in such a down year, let’s see how bad they really are. Starting at the top of last week’s “The Other 26”, how many mid-majors would knock off any Pac-12 team on a neutral floor?

  • I would say seven, with the streak ending at Memphis. But I would comfortably take Gonzaga, Whichta State, Creighton, etc. against any Pac-12 team.

5.  Down three with a minute left, who is the one player in the conference you turn to for the tying three?

  • Tony Wroten, Jr. Although he is just a freshman, that doesn’t really matter this late in the season. I’d give the ball to him without a doubt.

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Pac-12 Power Rankings: Week 11

Posted by Connor Pelton on January 25th, 2012

Here’s a look at the power rankings that Drew and I have compiled after the 11th week of Pac-12 games:

1. California, 16-5 (6-2): After Thursday’s big win at Washington, the Golden Bears had a great chance to finish the week 2-0 and be all alone at the top of the conference. Instead, Faisal Aden had his second straight incredible performance off the bench, Brock Motum added 15 points, and at the end of the day, California was headed back to Berkeley with a 77-75 loss. But while the Washington State loss stings, the Bears still had a great win at Hec Edmunson on Thursday, a place where many teams don’t come out alive (unless you’re the fighting Jackrabbits of South Dakota State). Cal is now off until Sunday, when they welcome in rival Stanford for a huge game in the Pac-12 race. Up Next: 1/29 vs. Stanford

2. Oregon, 15-5 (6-2): It wasn’t easy at times for Oregon this week, but when the final buzzer sounded in Eugene on Saturday afternoon, the Ducks found themselves with a 6-2 record, good enough for a tie at first place in the Pac-12. While the week turned out to be a success, it almost started with disaster as USC had a chance to force overtime against them. But Maurice Jones’ three-point attempt with five seconds remaining was missed badly, giving Oregon the 65-62 win. On Saturday, the Ducks had to battle back from trailing by 15 (twice) before finally pulling even with the Bruins with 7:50 remaining in the game. From that point on, despite the score telling us otherwise, it always felt as the Ducks were in control. Turns out that they were, as Dana Altman’s Ducks knocked off UCLA by seven to earn their fourth straight win. Up Next: 1/29 vs. Oregon State

Oregon forward Olu Ashaolu is averaging 8.2 PPG and 4.8 RPG this season. (credit: AP)

3. Stanford, 15-5 (5-3): Cardinal fans couldn’t have asked for a worse week. On Thursday night in Pullman they were torched by the re-emergence of Aden, who went for 33 points off the bench in Washington State’s stunning 12-point win. Saturday’s game in Seattle didn’t go much better, as an uninspired Stanford team got down early and often. They did only trail by seven at halftime, and by five early in the second half, but a 21-3 Husky run shortly thereafter quickly put the game out of reach. Up Next: 1/29 @ California

4. Arizona, 13-7 (4-3): After an easy win at Utah on Thursday, the Wildcats came into the Coors Event Center looking for their fourth win in five tries. The win not only would have put them just a half game out of first place in the Pac-12, but also would have given them another solid road win to add to their résumé. Instead, it’s the Buffaloes that are a half game out, thanks to their thrilling 64-63 win. The game highlighted the fact that even if the Pac-12 is in a down year, Pac-12 basketball is still a great thing to watch. The biggest shot was also the game-winning one, coming with 1:19 remaining. Carlon Brown drained a three to put the Buffaloes up by one, and the defenses would take over from there. Up Next: 1/26 vs. Washington State

Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story

Pac-12 Morning Five: 01.20.12 Edition

Posted by Connor Pelton on January 20th, 2012

  1. We begin in Seattle, where the Pac-12 Game of the Week took place at Hec Edmunson Pavilion. And while we named it the game of the week, it also happened to be one of the best of the season. It was a tale of two halves with Pac-12-leading California building a quick lead and slowly building on it. The Golden Bears would eventually lead by 10 at halftime, but Washington let them know it wouldn’t last from the outset of the second half. Trailing by 13, the Dawgs went on an 8-0 run to cut the deficit to 47-42. From there both teams played great basketball. Cal led by 11 with 11:30 remaining, but Washington would come right back to cut the deficit to four a few minutes later. A pair of David Kravish free throws with 6:55 to play seemingly put the game as the Bears led by eight, but the Huskies would battle back yet again. A Desmond Simmons layup made the score 66-63 with 1:05 left, and a Terrence Ross three to answer two Cal free throws made the score 68-66. Justin Cobbs would then split his pair of free throws with eight seconds to play, giving Washington one last chance to force overtime. Darnell Gant got a good look at the buzzer but the ball would not go down, sending the Bears to Pullman in sole possession of first place.
  2. It was a good night for both Oregon schools as Oregon and Oregon State both posted victories against their visitors from Los Angeles. The Ducks got their win first, but not without some nail-biting. Neither team played particularly well on Thursday, but the Ducks were able to get some crucial stops late to hang on for a 65-62 victory. Senior guard Garrett Sim led the Ducks with 20 points. Forty-five miles up the road and two hours later, it was the Beavers getting a much-needed win over UCLA. Earlier today I was critical of Ahmad Starks’ play on offense, but he sure proved me wrong tonight. The sophomore guard poured in 13 points to go with three assists and sparked a big Beaver run to give Oregon State some breathing room. Still, the Beavers can’t rely on outshooting their opponent every night if they want to steal an NIT bid.
  3. You wouldn’t be able to tell by the final result, but one of the more entertaining games of the evening was between Arizona and Utah. The Utes came out inspired in their first game without star Josh Watkins and were able to play the Wildcats tough for 22 minutes. That’s when Arizona, leading 35-32 at the time, went on a 20-2 run in just six minutes and seven seconds. The run sucked the energy out off Ute fans and players, but I’ve got to admit, I’m starting to like what I see from coach Larry Krystkowiak. Obviously, this season was lost in the first couple of weeks, but don’t be surprised if the Utes finish the year with two or three more conference wins.
  4. The most surprising result of the night came from Pullman, where Washington State exploded in the second half to blow out Stanford, 81-69. Trailing 50-39 with 13:30 remaining, the Cougars went on a 26-6 run over the next six minutes. From there, it was all Washington State. The Cardinal were able to get within six a couple of times, but those bursts of hope for Stanford were quickly answered with a mini-run for the Cougs. Brock Motum and Fasial Aden were huge for Wazzu, with Motum posting 16 points and six rebounds, while Aden added a ridiculous 33 points and five boards off the bench.
  5. This article is a little old, but with Aden’s outburst last night and considering we could all use a good laugh to start the weekend, I present this. Craig Powers of CougCenter is the mastermind. I’m just trying to pick out my favorite quote. Is it: “When I walk into a living room with some finely woven wicker, I immediately command attention”; or, “And there is an obvious connection to the game of basketball and baskets. I mean, it is right there in the name.”
Share this story

Hope is Running Out in Corvallis

Posted by Connor Pelton on January 19th, 2012

Just three short years ago, Oregon State coach Craig Robinson led the Beavers to a CBI Championship in his first year as head coach in Corvallis. A year later, the Beavers went to the CBI for a second straight season and Robinson was given a two-year extension thru 2015-16. Then things went south. The Beavers won a total of 11 games in 2010-11, with head-scratching losses to opponents like Texas Southern, Utah Valley, and George Washington. That season had Beaver fans questioning Robinson and the direction in which the program was going, but rest assured Robinson said, next season would be the year. The team was entirely his, and in his words, “We have the talent to compete in every game we play in.”

Fast forward to three months later. The Beavers are 11-7, which is not a bad record by any means, but not very good either. Their best win was over a mediocre Texas squad on a neutral court, and they have lost five out of their six conference games. But worst of all, the team (all of Robinson’s guys) have stopped playing for him. And it’s because, quite honestly, the guy isn’t a very good coach. Beginning on the offensive side of the ball, the Beavers look completely lost. Robinson has fallen in love with Ahmad Starks, and the team is suffering mightily because of it. Forget the offense that got you ten wins in nonconference play, why not just give the ball to Starks, let him dance around the perimeter for however long he deems necessary, and throw up a shot? This might be a good idea when you need a barrage of threes late in the game, but in the first half? Why not work the ball in and out, maybe get it to the guy who is the supposed “leader of the team” in Jared Cunningham? Robinson has completely abandoned Cunningham on offense, and opponents have picked up on this.

This guy needs to shoot more. (credit: Andy Wooldridge)

Defenses are more than willing to simply pack the key and let Starks shoot away for two reasons. One, he’s incredibly streaky. Starks loves to shoot, obviously, and when he’s making them, that’s fine. But those moments are few and far between. Secondly, when the defense already has three players in the paint, it makes it pretty easy to get a rebound. But when Starks is launching threes with the Beaver bigs (especially Devon Collier) out on the wings or on top of the free throw line, it is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to get offensive rebounds and second chance points. You’d think Robinson would work on this in practice, but yet we see Collier and Brandt reaching and going over the back every single game because they are never in position.

Another reason offensive production has gone down in conference play is because of Eric Moreland. While Moreland is a great defender, he has no clue what to do on offense and should not be taking up minutes until he learns some basic offensive skills. To Starks’ credit, he does do a good job of slashing through the paint and creating options for everyone. But Moreland is constantly clogging the lane and that takes a way too many possibilities. Players like Angus Brandt and Joe Burton have to get more playing time since they can not only score and pass but also move around and open up the offense. Read the rest of this entry »

Share this story