Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Their is only one match-up of Top 25 opponents tonight.  The Battle for Michigan went to the Wolverines last season.  Let’s take a look at who has the advantage this season.

John Beilein and the Wolverines need a big win against their in-state rivals tonight

#9 Michigan State at #16 Michigan – 7:00PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

• Michigan State lost both games to its in-state rival last season in a down year for Tom Izzo and company. This season, the Spartans bring a team into Ann Arbor that ranks in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Ohio State, Syracuse, and Kentucky are the only other schools that rank in the top ten in both categories in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Is that our Final Four come March? Possibly, but right now the Spartans have to pick themselves up from a loss to Northwestern on Saturday. The Wildcats posted an eFG of 57.7% against a tough Spartan defense thanks to strong shooting from beyond the arc. It was Michigan State’s worst field goal defense of the season. Prior to the loss on Saturday though, Michigan State had won 15 straight games thanks to solid shooting and fantastic offensive rebounding. While Michigan State has slipped a bit on defense in the conference season, their offensive numbers are getting better. They have improved significantly from the three-point line, increasing their shooting percentage from 36% to 42%. With the Wolverines giving up 41.1% from downtown in conference play thus far, this is an area to keep an eye on throughout the game. Solid three-point shooting and great offensive rebounding is a difficult combination to beat.
• Michigan is in need of a good win. Their last four games consist of a loss at Indiana, a home win against a Wisconsin team in the midst of a three-game losing streak, an overtime win at home against Northwestern, and a blow out loss against Iowa on the road. The Wolverines have seen a significant drop-off in offensive efficiency in Big Ten play. Their three-point shooting percentage has dipped below 30% against conference opponents. To compound the season long ineffectiveness beyond the arc, Michigan is actually shooting more threes in Big Ten play than in the non-conference season. Three-pointers make up 44.1% of Michigan’s field goal attempts in six Big Ten games. Even more alarming is the significant drop in two-point shooting. Michigan is only hitting 48.9% of its two-point attempts against the stronger defenses in the Big Ten. Establishing Jordan Morgan on the inside may be the answer to Michigan’s shooting issues. Morgan is third on the team in two-point attempts and is hitting approximately 65% of his shots. Going down low to Morgan early may open up the perimeter to give Michigan better looks.
• A key match-up in this game will be Michigan State’s offensive rebounding versus Michigan’s defensive rebounding. If the Spartans are able to own the offensive glass, it will put a lot of pressure on the Michigan offense to hit shots since the Wolverines are not good on the offensive boards. Second chance points always beats empty possessions. Given their current shooting slump, it’s tough to foresee Michigan breaking out against a strong Michigan defense. Then again, it’s a rivalry game and anything can happen.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Tonight we’ll see two match-ups that may be previews to conference championship games in the ACC and the WCC. All four teams are in the RTC Top 25 and both games should be fantastic. Let’s take a look at how things break down.

Senior forward Mike Scott takes his efficient offensive skills into Cameron Indoor for UVA's toughest test of the season (The Sabre)

#19 Virginia at #8 Duke – 9:00 PM EST on ESPN HD (****)

• Virginia has only lost one time this season and is looking for its 13th consecutive win. Playing at Duke will be UVA’s toughest test of the season. The Cavaliers play at a sloth’s pace. While their offense is nothing more than average, their defense has been stellar. They are holding teams to 27% from beyond the arc and are in the top 10 in the country in defensive rebounding. Although offense is not the Cavaliers’ strong suit, 6’8″ forward Mike Scott is one of the most effective scorers and rebounders in the country. Considering how slowly Virginia plays, Scott should be considered one of the top big men in the country. Keep a close eye on how he matches up with Duke’s Mason Plumlee. It should be a great battle between two future NBA forwards.
• Duke still possesses one of the top offenses in the country. The Blue Devils shoot an outstanding 41.7% from downtown. Much like Virginia, Duke knows how to get to the line. The free throw battle in this game will be extremely important. In both of Duke’s losses, two key statistics emerged. They did not get to the line and their opponent shot the lights out. On the season, the Dukies have a free throw rate of 51.5%, which is good for third in the nation. In losses to Ohio State and Temple, Duke had a free throw rate of 25% and 27%, respectively. Virginia does not put teams on the line, so it will be interesting to see how the free throw situation plays out.
• While it appears that this game will come down to Duke’s offense versus Virginia’s defense, the UVA offense actually may hold the key to the win. In Duke’s two losses, OSU and Temple both had an eFG of over 60%. Look to see if Virginia’s Sammy Zeglinski can hit his threes. Zeglinski is the Cavaliers’ top three-point shooter, hitting 31-of-74 attempts (41.9%). Also, keep an eye on Duke’s offensive rebounding. The Cavaliers’ defense will contest Duke’s three-point shots and the Blue Devils are a poor offensive rebounding team. If Mike Krzyzewski’s squad goes one-and-done too many times, the Cavaliers could pull the upset at Cameron Indoor. However, it may be too much to expect for the Virginia offense to win in such a tough environment.

#16 Gonzaga at #25 St. Mary’s – 11:00 PM EST on ESPNU HD (****)

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter. See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Let’s take a look at two big games tonight in the Big 12 and the Missouri Valley.

Scott Drew and Baylor look to stay undefeated against Kansas State

#5 Baylor at #18 Kansas State – 8:00PM EST on FSN Regional (****)

• In order to stay undefeated, Baylor has to go on the road to Manhattan, Kansas and beat a very tough Kansas State team. The Bears’ defense continues to be one of the best in the nation, holding teams to 42% eFG. It’s almost impossible to make a two-point shot against their long, athletic front court. Only BYU and West Virginia have been able to shoot over 50% eFG against Scott Drew’s team. Baylor is very difficult to beat because their defense and offensive rebounding enable them to withstand a poor shooting night and still win, much like their game against Mississippi State where they shot an eFG of 39%. One weakness for the Bears is their turnover rate. Point guard Pierre Jackson turns the ball over at a rate 31.1%. While it would appear that Jackson’s turnovers would be a liability, it seems Baylor is able to tighten things up in close games. In games against their two toughest opponents, West Virginia and BYU, the Bears turned the ball over on only 16.7% and 17.1% of their possessions, respectively. Read the rest of this entry »

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

There are a bunch of Pac-12 games on tonight, but we’re focusing on the one must see game of the evening in the Big Ten.  Let’s take a look at the action.

#15 Michigan at #10 Indiana – 9:00 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (****)

How will Trey Burke handle a tough Indiana defense in his first trip to Bloomington (Angela J. Cesere/annarbor.com)

• Michigan has won seven games in a row. However, Indiana will be their toughest test by far since its loss to Virginia on the road last month. Michigan still leads the nation in two-point field goal percentage at 58.1%, so taking smart two-point shots and not relying as heavily on the three-pointers will be key for the Wolverines in this game. In Indiana’s only loss of the season, Michigan State hit 60% of its two-point attempts (24-40). Keep an eye on where U of M’s shots are coming from throughout the game. John Beilein’s team can get three-happy, as the Wolverines take almost 44% of its shots from outside the arc.  Star shooting guard Tim Hardaway, Jr., is hitting less than 30% of his attempts from downtown, though. If he can slash to the hole and freshman point guard Trey Burke can drive and dish for the open shot, the Wolverines are capable of pulling the upset on the road.  However, Michigan needs to watch the fouls; they rank 325th in the nation in bench minutes.  Foul trouble tonight would doom the Maize and Blue.
• Indiana has already beaten a #1 and #2 ranked team in the country for the first time in its history this year. The Hoosiers will look to play at a slightly faster pace than Michigan and take advantage of their size with freshman center Cody Zeller inside. With Michigan’s tallest starter being 6’9” Evan Smotrycz, look for IU to go to the 6’11” Zeller often. If he draws the double team, Indiana is hitting almost 45% of its threes this season. The inside-out game of Indiana could spell danger for Michigan; also, Indiana’s ability to create turnovers will be key. It will be interesting to see how Burke handles the Hoosiers’ pressure defense.
• This game will hinge on the defensive play of Indiana. Both teams are solid offensively, but Indiana plays much stronger defense.  A team that plays defense like IU can wear down the Wolverines because of their lack of depth. Smart twos will keep the Wolverines in the game but they do not have the offensive rebounding prowess to overcome a bunch of missed threes. Indiana’s offense has proven too efficient to come away with many empty possessions.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Big Ten and Big East battles highlight Tuesday night’s action. Let’s take a look at what you should keep an eye on:

#12 Michigan State at #18 Wisconsin – 7:00PM EST on ESPN2 HD (****)

• Michigan State has rattled off 13 consecutive wins since losing its first two games against North Carolina and Duke. The Spartans are playing some of the strongest defense in the country. Tom Izzo’s teams are typically strong on the boards and this season is no exception. MSU ranks 17th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Rebounding should prove to be a crucial element in the outcome of this game, as Wisconsin is one of the country’s top defensive rebounding teams. Since the Badgers play such spectacular field goal defense, the Spartans are going to have to crash the offensive glass to have a chance to win on the road. Also, pay close attention to how often Sparty gets to the line and how often they put the Badgers on the line. Those stats have been key to MSU’s wins and losses. Fortunately for Spartan fans, Wisconsin is 315th in the country in free throw rate.
• The Badgers are coming off a bizarre home loss to Iowa where they shot 3-28 from three-point land. However, when you look back at Wisconsin’s two other losses against Marquette and North Carolina, they shot poorly from downtown in those games as well. The Badgers were 5-19 against Marquette and 8-28 against UNC. Neither of those teams were particularly good at defending the three. For a team that takes almost 40% of its shots from three and hits 38.4% of them, the deep ball is clearly a driver of the Badgers’ offensive efficiency. MSU has one of the better three-point defenses in the country, allowing only 29.9% of deep balls to go down. Keep a close eye on the three-point percentage of Wisconsin.
• This should be a slow, half-court, defensive battle. The game will hinge on MSU’s ability to defend the three and still manage the defensive boards. The Badgers will need to establish their inside game in order to open up the perimeter. They have the defense to beat anyone in the country, however, if the three ball is not going down, their offense has a tough time winning games for them.

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

As we head into 2012, early tests against conference foes are a true litmus test for teams looking to make the NCAA tournament. Let’s take a good look at Oregon State and BYU on the road to see if they have what it takes.

Brandon Davies leads BYU into its first West Coast Conference game against St. Mary's (Getty/E. Miller)

Oregon State at Washington – 9:00PM EST on Root Sports (***)

• Oregon State is one win away from equaling last season’s win total of 11. The Beavers have very good offensive numbers – 54.9% eFG, 47.7% FTR, and 54.8% two-point shooting. However, their efficiency takes a hit because of turnovers and poor offensive rebounding. Craig Robinson’s team faces a very tall Washington team that can create problems for OSU on the boards. Defensively, the Beavers do a great job at creating turnovers. They rank 5th in the nation in TO%. Keep a close eye on OSU’s Jared Cunningham and his ability to disrupt the Washington offense.  If the Beavers are able to create turnovers and hit smart two-point shots, they will equal last year’s win total in just 13 games this season.
• Washington has been very disappointing this season. If they have any hope at making the NCAA Tournament, they must roll through much of the Pac-12, starting tonight. This team falls apart on defense. They create very few turnovers and do not defend the three-point shot well. Interestingly, Washington must create turnovers to win.  They are 0-5 when the defense creates turnovers on less than 18% of the opponent’s possessions. To give you an idea what that means, Coastal Carolina ranks 304th in the nation with a defensive turnover percentage of 18%. So, the Huskies do not have to create a lot of turnovers, they just have to create some and they will win.
• Expect an up-tempo game with both teams averaging over 71 possessions per game. This game hinges on turnovers. If the Beavers can limit their turnovers and allow their offensive to produce the way it is capable of producing, they will win. If  Washington can use its length and put more pressure on the ball to create turnovers and transition baskets, they will win.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

As we head into conference season, we will focus on two games that feature four teams that need a quality win to kick off the “second season”.

Jamie Dixon Needs Someone To Step Up Against Notre Dame

• Without point guard Travon Woodall (currently listed as a game-time decision), Pitt is a two-man team.  Ashton Gibbs and Nasir Robinson have taken 41% of the teams field goal attempts. Luckily, the level of competition the team has faced since the Woodall injury has not been stellar. However, they ran into a tough Wagner team last Friday that gave the Panthers their second home loss to a mid-major team this season. Gibbs is only shooting 38.5% from two-point range and shoots an equal amount of two-point and three-point attempts (just over 100 from each). Robinson is shooting much better from inside the arc, hitting 68.9% of his two-point attempts. To grind out a few more wins prior to Woodall’s return, Jamie Dixon’s team will need to get help from someone other than Gibbs and Robinson. Keep an eye on who steps up against Notre Dame. If a third scorer does not emerge, the pressure on those two may be too much.
• Notre Dame is in desperate need of a win against a quality opponent. Through 13 games this season, they have zero wins against a school from a major conference. They have lost to Missouri, Georgia, Gonzaga, Maryland, and Indiana. While the Notre Dame offense ranks in the top 50 in efficiency, they have managed to shoot 50% eFG or under in 7 of their 13 games – going 2-5 in those games. Pitt has only allowed three of its opponents to shoot over 50% eFG. In more bad news for Mike Brey’s team, the Panthers are #1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage and 29th in defensive rebounding percentage. Both areas are weak spots for the Irish. Since the Irish may be catching Pitt in one of its last gamess without its point guard, it is a perfect time for them to pick up a quality win at home. However, they will have to play a lot better than they have played all season.
• Notre Dame must figure out a way to hit more shots and grab more rebounds. Unfortunately, Pitt is stronger in both areas. Keep a close eye on the Panthers’ rebounding numbers and field goal defense. If they win in those areas and get some contribution from another source than Gibbs and Robinson, they will win. The Irish must keep Pitt a two-man show, if they are to have a shot in this one.

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Tu Holloway is back from suspension to face Casper Ware and Long Beach State

There are too many three and four star games tonight to count, so in the interest of analyzing a few teams we have not touched on before, we picked three neutral court games that should be great.  Let’s get to the action.

Missouri vs. Illinois – 9:00PM EST on ESPN2 HD (****)

• There are two reasons Missouri is flat-out destroying opponents this season — they shoot lights out and they protect the ball. The Tigers are first in the country in eFG% at 60% and first in the country in offensive turnover rate at 13.6%.  It is very difficult to beat a team that hits a majority of its shots and does not have empty possessions.  The Mizzou offense will be matched up against a solid Illinois defense. The Illini gets on the defensive boards and blocks shots.  Unfortunately, Bruce Weber’s guys are a little soft on their perimeter defense giving up 35.5% from three. Tiger guard Kim English, who shoots a ridiculous 53.2% (33-62) from beyond the arc, could have a field day tonight if not checked.
• Illinois cannot try to outshoot Missouri tonight.  They will get blown off the court if they do.  They must focus on defense if they are to have a chance.  Keep an eye on 7’1” Illini center Meyers Leonard and what impact he has on the game against a small-ish Tigers team.  The tallest Mizzou starter is the 6’8” Ratliffe, who will have to check Meyers.  However, there is still a significant size difference.  Meyers will need to have a career game to lead Illinois to a victory.
• Missouri’s shooting will dictate who wins this game.  If the Tigers shoot their average, they should take the victory.  Expect them to shoot a few more threes than normal against a weak Illini perimeter defense.  If Illinois is to keep this game close, Meyers will have to find a way to dominate on both ends of the floor.  Illinois needs to slow the game down and D.J. Richardson needs to continue to protect the ball against the Tiger press for the guys in orange to have a fighting chance.

Baylor vs. St. Mary’s – 10:30PM EST on ESPN3 (****)

• In Baylor’s last game against a West Coast Conference team, it barely escaped 86-83 at BYU.  Despite being outshot by Baylor by a significant margin, the Cougars kept the game close by dominating the offensive boards.  St. Mary’s is a better offensive rebounding team than BYU, so keep an eye on how many offensive boards the Gaels grab in this game.  With Baylor blocking so many shots and creating steals on 13% of opponents possessions, their long and athletic front line makes scoring on them very difficult. Speaking of front lines, keep an eye on the Bears’ forwards Perry Jones, Quincy Miller, and Quincy Acy on offense as well.  St. Mary’s does not have the same level of athletes to match-up with the trio.
• Baylor is by far the toughest test of the season for Randy Bennett’s team.  Keep an eye on how the Gaels handle the initial Baylor onslaught.  In order for the Gaels to stay in this game, they need to own the boards on both ends.  They are currently one of the top defensive rebounding teams in the country and solid on the offensive boards as well. St. Mary’s guard Matthew Dellavedova is going to have to shoulder the offensive load.  Keep an eye on how he responds to the pressure.
• St. Mary’s appears to be outmanned in this game, so hustle will be the key for them.  The size of the Baylor frontcourt could be too much for the Gaels.  Rebounding will be the key factor.  Baylor shoots the ball very well, but SMC can keep in close if they hit the boards.  Baylor needs to hang on to the ball and take advantage of their athleticism and length to win.

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Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

As college hoops finishes up the non-conference season, we get to watch two teams that have transcended their mid-major status, as well as upstart mid-majors battle against the nations blue bloods. With all the holiday shopping going on this time of year, it becomes even more important to Set Your TiVo’s. Let’s get to the action.

Brad Stevens takes Butler into Spokane to face Gonzaga (Indy Star/R. Scheer)

College of Charleston at #11 Louisville – 9:00PM EST on ESPNU HD (***)

• College of Charleston is off to a 9-1 and is poised to make a run through the Southern Conference. Louisville is a very difficult road test for the Cougars, but it could help them come NCAA Tournament time. Charleston is a very good two-point shooting team, hitting 54.6% from inside the arc. However, Bobby Cremins has his squad taking 40% of its shots from three. That’s a big number for a team that is only shooting 35.8% from downtown. Considering Antwaine Wiggins and Andrew Lawrence are hitting 61.3% and 55% from two, respectively, it will be important for both players to get good shots inside the arc. However, they run into a Louisville defense that is stout against the two-point shot. The Cougars are simply going to have to hit more threes to beat Louisville. Keep an eye on their makes and misses from deep. If they are not hitting early, the Cardinals could get too far out in front for Charleston to catch.
• With the exception of Ohio and Vanderbilt, Louisville has been mowing opponents down with stellar defense. They rank 4th in the country in defensive efficiency and have only allowed one opponent (Vanderbilt) to shoot over 50% eFG in 10 games. Charleston is one of the better two-point shooting teams in the country, so it will be a good test for the Cardinals. Expect Rick Pitino’s club to own the boards on both ends, as well as create a bunch of turnovers. Keep an eye on how Charleston handles the Louisville defensive pressure. If they look tentative when bringing the ball up court, this one could get out of hand.
• The game hinges on Charleston’s ability to handle the Louisville defense. The Cardinals will pressure the Cougar ball handlers and try to create baskets off of turnovers. If Charleston can move the ball past the pressure and hit open threes early, they can stay in the game. However, that is a very difficult task against one of the top five defenses in the country.

Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Gonzaga and Oral Roberts should be the most competitive game on a short Thursday slate.  Let’s check out the action.

Robert Sacre should have a big game against Oral Roberts

Oral Roberts at Gonzaga – 9:00PM EST on Root Sports (**)

• Oral Roberts has proven to be a very solid offensive rebounding team to this point in the season. They rank 14th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (40.5%). Their ability to grab boards will be a key factor as they will be outsized down low against Gonzaga’s Robert Sacre. Keep an eye on Oral Roberts’ offensive rebounding numbers. Since Oral Roberts is not a great shooting team (49.2% eFG) and they have a tendency to turn the ball over, these empty possession can only be mitigated by solid offensive rebounding. If Sacre and Elias Harris are grabbing boards, Oral Roberts will have a tough night.
• Gonzaga comes into the game with back-to-back losses against Illinois and Michigan State.  Luckily, Mark Few’s team has had five days to prep at home for Oral Roberts. With strong three-point shooting and strong rebounding, the Zags should be able to win the game. Oral Roberts has a solid perimeter defense however. Their losses have come to teams with strong two-point shooting, which Gonzaga does not have. Again, keep an eye on Sacre’s and Harris’ ability to convert in the paint.
• While both teams struggle with turnovers, the key really comes down to field goal defense. Both teams allow over 50% eFG. Sacre and Harris should create room on the outside for the Gonzaga shooters. If they are able to bury three-pointers at their season average of 40%, the Bulldogs will win. Oral Roberts needs to continue to limit threes, limit empty possessions, and hit those twos. It will be tough however since Gonzaga has had five days rest and is playing at the Kennel.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2014
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game