Big Ten M5: New Year’s Eve Edition

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 31st, 2014

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  1. Purdue faces an important test in trying to right its crumbling season when the Boilermakers take on Minnesota today in West Lafayette. One of the major aspects of the game that the Boilermakers have to watch for is the Gophers’ keen ability to turn teams over. They lead the Big Ten in turnover margin, meaning that despite the fact that they play at a much faster tempo, they aren’t making too many miscues on the offensive end. Purdue would be wise to feed Isaac Haas and AJ Hammons repeatedly in order to slow things down, making this one a contest that’s instead decided in the half-court.
  2. Another one of the three games on the Big Ten slate today will also feature an extreme contrast in styles. Nebraska wants to play at a slow pace and take advantage of its ability to defend. Meanwhile, Indiana is averaging 86.4 points per game and would love nothing more than to turn things into a track meet. Despite the fact that Leslee Smith and Moses Abraham still aren’t ready to return from their injuries, Indiana doesn’t have anyone who can really punish the Cornhuskers on the interior. Whoever can control the tempo in this one will more than likely have a great chance at starting out 1-0 in conference play today.
  3. Rutgers senior forward Kadeem Jack was benched on Tuesday as the Scarlet Knights lost their Big Ten opener to Northwestern, 51-47. Jack missed a team breakfast, which caused head coach Eddie Jordan to give his starting spot to freshman DJ Foreman. After an 0-of-8 effort from the field, Jack stated that, “I think I was a big distraction,” in seemingly agreeing with Jordan’s decision to bench him. The coach has largely been positive with the media despite the uneven play of his team, but he seems to be losing patience with how things are going, especially on the offensive end. This was a must-win game for his team, and as the schedule progresses, it remains an open question how many Big Ten wins this team can muster in its first season in the league.
  4. Northwestern was dealing with some issues too coming into the game against Rutgers, but it was able to prevail despite several players dealing with the flu. Freshman stater Victor Law Jr. was one of those affected players, but Jershon Cobb returned to action and contributed six points and seven rebounds in the victory. This was a good start for the Wildcats, but they won’t have much time to celebrate a 1-0 start, as their next opponent is versus Wisconsin on Sunday in Evanston.
  5. Whether people really noticed or not in Ann Arbor after some guy named Jim Harbaugh stole all of the headlines, Michigan’s basketball team got off to a solid Big Ten start by knocking off Illinois on Tuesday. The unlikely hero in the contest was freshman Aubrey Dawkins, who canned six out of seven three-pointers on his way to 20 points. Coincidentally, Harbaugh and Dawkins are both alumni of Palo Alto High School in California. The son of Stanford head coach Johnny Dawkins had by far his best game of the season, and Michigan way have just found their next formerly unheralded star to turn things around.
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Handing Out the Big Ten Non-Conference Awards

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 30th, 2014

Before passing out the imaginary hardware for the Big Ten’s best performers in the non-conference season, let’s make it clear that these awards come solely from my brain. All of our Big Ten preseason awards and the predicted order of finish were voted on by the entire group of writers here at the Big Ten microsite. These non-conference honors, however, are all on me, so please direct any kudos and/or criticism this way (@berndon4). So with the non-conference portion of the Big Ten schedule thankfully done, here are the honors from the first half of the season.

Frank Kaminsky has stepped his game up to even greater levels this season after a standout season in 2013-14.  (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)

Frank Kaminsky has stepped his game up to even greater levels this season after a standout season in 2013-14. (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)

  • Player of the Year: Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin: Kaminsky has been so good that advanced metrics guru Ken Pomeroy has him listed as his current National Player of the Year. He leads the Badgers in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks, and he’s also third on the team in assists. Where he’s made a major leap this season has been in his ability to put the ball on the floor and beat his man off of the dribble. Instead of morphing into full Pittsnogle mode of just launching threes as a 7-footer and falling in love with his perimeter game, he’s scoring from all over the court. Defensively, he’s leading the conference in defensive rebounding, grabbing 25.1 percent of all caroms when the other team puts up a shot. He’s also averaging 2.2 blocks per game, and has been a legitimate rim-protector for the Badgers’ outstanding defense. (Others Considered: Rayvonte Rice, DJ Newbill, D’Angelo Russell)
  • Freshman of the Year: D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State: You honestly couldn’t go wrong with any of the three Big Ten freshmen who have been spectacular thus far. Russell gets the nod over Maryland’s Melo Trimble and Indiana’s James Blackmon Jr., but just barely. The gifted guard from Louisville has led the Buckeyes in scoring nine times, but he’s also led them in assists five times to boot. His 17.7 PPG and 5.3 APG are great, but his 46.7 percent shooting from deep is even better. If his numbers stay anywhere close to where they are now and Ohio State finishes near the top of the league standings, he’ll edge out Trimble and Blackmon for the season award like he has done here. (Others Considered: Melo Trimble, James Blackmon Jr, Vince Edwards)

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Big Ten Viewers’ Guide For Conference Play

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 30th, 2014

As you well know, the Big Ten starts off conference play with four games today. While some of the luster has been lost due to several teams’ non-conference struggles, that doesn’t mean that things won’t be entertaining with so many teams relatively close to each other in talent level. Can disappointing teams like Michigan and Purdue turn things around? Will Wisconsin dominate as much as everyone seems to think? Can Penn State keep winning? Some of these questions and more will be answered over the next two and a half months. With that in mind, here’s a look at five key dates during conference play that will be appointment viewing if you’re a true B1G fan.

Dez Wells and his Maryland squad taking on Michigan State in College Park highlights a slew of games on January 17 .(Charlie DeBoyace/The Diamondback)

Dez Wells and Maryland vs. Michigan State in College Park highlights a slew of good games on January 17 .(Charlie DeBoyace/The Diamondback)

January 17 (five games)

  • Rutgers-Minnesota 12:00 EST (BTN)
  • Purdue-Penn State 1:0o (ESPNU)
  • Ohio State-Iowa 2:00 (ESPN)
  • Michigan State-Maryland 4:00 (CBS)
  • Northwestern-Michigan 8:15 (BTN)

You may be able to skip the opener at Minnesota, but the meat of this five-game Saturday slate is right in the middle. Iowa and Ohio State split their games last season, which each team winning on the other’s home floor. Both teams once again have legitimate NCAA hopes, but this one will be important for setting the tone early in conference play. After today’s season opener in East Lansing, Maryland and Michigan State will run it back just 17 days later. The Terps are known for bringing a raucous atmosphere to the Xfinity Center — how will Michigan State handle the chaos in playing there for the first time as a league opponent? Read the rest of this entry »

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Some Big Ten X-Factors That Will Shape the Conference Race

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 29th, 2014

It’s easy to sit here and write that players like Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky and Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell will be key factors in how the Big Ten race shapes up once conference play begins this week. It’s a little harder to dig deeper and find several of the league’s non-superstars who will also have significant roles in the final determinations. Is it the freshman who starts to understand the speed of the game and plays much better with a few games under his belt? Or is it the underachieving senior who plays with an increased urgency now that his career is coming to a close? Here’s a look at several non-household Big Ten players who will be key cogs for their teams over the next couple of months.

Bronson Koenig has played well after struggling early for Wisconsin. (Reuters)

Bronson Koenig has played well after struggling early for Wisconsin. (Reuters)

  • Bronson Koenig: The sophomore guard struggled in his first five games, only averaging 2.8 PPG on 33 percent shooting from the floor. Since then, he’s increased his output to 6.3 PPG on 40 percent shooting over seven games. The Badgers have not yet really replaced the three-point production of Ben Brust despite their 12-1 record, so Koenig will need to be a more consistent offensive option when he gets called upon.
  • Aaron Cosby: Illinois has done a good job in being less reliant on Rayvonte Rice this season. His usage rate has only dropped only a bit (from 26.6 to 25.8 percent), but his minutes are reduced as well (27.8 MPG). The Illini’s offense is therefore more balanced, and it will be even better if Aaron Cosby can regain his shooting touch. In Illini wins, Cosby has made 36.5 percent of his shots from distance. In three losses, he’s made only 20.0 percent. He’s done a good job contributing in other ways — like when he grabbed seven rebounds in a win against Missouri — but Cosby is in Champaign to make jump shots. If he can get things rolling and shoot like he did when he was at Seton Hall for his first two seasons (nearly 40 percent from three), Illinois will be hard to stop.

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Big Ten M5: Christmas Eve Edition

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 24th, 2014

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  1. Things have changed remarkably for the Big Ten in just the span of two weeks. It all started on December 6 when Michigan lost at home to NJIT and Purdue lost to North Florida in West Lafayette. Now, the league has lost a bunch of games to teams ranked below #150 on KenPom’s efficiency ratings, and it is losing much of its credibility in the process. Nebraska’s loss on Monday night to Hawaii was just the latest in a string of embarrassing defeats the league has suffered. The question that these teams will face is whether losses to the likes of Texas Southern and the rest could do so much damage to their resumes that a typical Big Ten 10-8 or 9-9 record becomes dicey on Selection Sunday (when in years past it was virtually a lock).
  2. It’s not often that an opposing coach becomes critical of a team that has just defeated his own team. But that’s just what North Florida head coach Matthew Driscoll did when asked about Iowa after it beat his squad on Saturday. Driscoll referred to a confidence problem with the Hawkeyes that Fran McCaffery echoed when he was asked about Driscoll’s remarks. “I guarantee he’s watched every one of our games, probably twice. So he is qualified to make those remarks. But, I mean, so are you. You’ve seen it.” This team is obviously missing Roy Devyn Marble in more ways than just his scoring ability this season.
  3. In happier Big Ten-related news, Wisconsin moved to 11-1 on the season by notching a solid and methodical road win at California on Monday night. Frank Kaminsky contributed another solid effort with 14 points and eight rebounds, and he kept his spot in second place in CollegeBasketballTalk’s Player of the Year rankings. One thing pointed out that could hurt Kaminsky when gunning for this season’s postseason honors is the fact that there will be times when the relative effectiveness of Nigel Hayes and Sam Dekker might limit his touches. The senior has done a great job, however, in doing more than just scoring this season, as he leads the team in steals and blocks and is second in assists.
  4. Tom Crean and Mark Turgeon have both been discussed as Big Ten coaches with tenuous holds on their jobs. But with both Indiana and Maryland getting off to better-than-expected starts in the 2014-15 campaign, their jobs appear to be safer. With many of the league powers showing signs of trouble, the Terps (11-1) and Hoosiers (10-2) are in reasonable positions to make the NCAA Tournament this season. On the other hand, one conference coach who could be in trouble if things don’t turn around soon is Purdue’s Matt Painter. After playing reasonably well at the Maui Invitational, the Boilermakers have since slipped tremendously. They now sit at 8-5 with an RPI of #154. Barring a significant turnaround, Painter could very well find himself in trouble at season’s end.
  5. Turnovers doomed Nebraska in its loss to Hawaii Tuesday morning in its first game at the Diamond Head Classic. Hawaii forced the Cornhuskers into 18 miscues, which, combined with a 7-of-23 shooting night from stars Terran Petteway and Shavon Shields, was simply too much to overcome. Now the team sits at 7-4 after last night’s overtime win against Loyola Marymount, but it lost a golden opportunity for a marquee neutral site win by missing on a battle with Wichita State. Nebraska will play Ohio to finish its trip to the Islands on Thursday, and then starts Big Ten play on December 31 against Indiana at home.
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Three Keys for Maryland Against Oklahoma State

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 21st, 2014

Maryland quite possibly could be the surprise of the Big Ten thus far, as they sit at 10-1 and are ranked in both polls. They’ve already taken care of one Big 12 foe when they beat Iowa State in late November, but now they will get challenged again when they head to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State on Sunday. Dez Wells will more than likely still be sidelined, as he’s not slated to return until conference play starts. This is a winnable game however, and could help their resume should the Cowboys keep playing as well as they have to date. Here are some quick keys for the Terps in order to pick up a quality road win.

Senior Evan Smotrycz is still feeling things out with Maryland's newcomers after missing eight games due to an injury. (Zimbio.com)

Senior Evan Smotrycz is still feeling things out with Maryland’s newcomers after missing eight games due to an injury. (Zimbio.com)

  1.  Continue to Figure Things Out With Evan Smotrycz: In their win Saturday against USC Upstate, Smotrycz had a nice game, as he scored ten points in only 18 minutes. But with Wells out of the lineup, he hasn’t played much with any of the five newcomers that get extended minutes. This showed in that game, as the offense was out of sync at times when he was on the floor. The comfort level will get better with a full roster, but right now it’s key for Mark Turgeon to figure who Smotrycz works better with, and whether or not lineups with Jake Layman on the floor at the same time are feasible. They both essentially play the same position, but they’re both two of the best five players on the roster. It will be interesting to see how the minutes work themselves out, starting in this game.
  2. Get Something Out of Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens: The two freshmen wing shooters have been up and down, shooting it at a 32.1 percent, and 36.7 percent clip respectively. Wiley started the season 6-for-13, but has gone 3-for 15 in his last six games. Meanwhile Nickens started out 9-for-28, but has gone 9-for-21 in his last four games. With Melo Trimble and Richaud Pack being better drivers than outside shooters, getting these two to both heat up for an extended stretch would make the Maryland offense markedly better.
  3. Defensive Rebounds Will be Crucial: Despite having a decent amount of size and bulk, the Cowboys are only rebounding 27.5 percent of their misses (276th in the country). Maryland isn’t a great defensive rebounding team, and in their only loss to Virginia they were minus 12 on the boards. Damonte Dodd and Smotrycz have been their two best on the defensive backboards, but 7’1″ freshman Michal Cekovsky needs to come in and control things on the glass like he did when he grabbed a season-high eight rebounds in the Iowa State game.
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Big Ten Sophomore Spotlight: Indiana’s Troy Williams

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 19th, 2014

Many sophomores in the Big Ten have a significantly greater role this season than they did as freshmen. That is to be expected, of course, as the second year is often when players make their biggest strides in development. Some highly-recruited guys, however, continue to disappoint, while others who may not have been so highly regarded have by now become viable contributors for their teams. This series of posts is meant to check in on a few of the different sophomores in the league to determine whether they’ve improved in their first year-plus and what it means for their teams going forward. Next up in the series is Indiana forward Troy Williams. 

Troy Williams has played well after returning from a two-game suspension at the beginning of the season. (Chris Howell/Herald Times)

Troy Williams has played well after returning from a two-game suspension at the beginning of the season. (Chris Howell/Herald Times)

  • 2013-14: 7.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 0.8 SPG, 50.9% FG, 67.5 % FT, 21.5 MPG, 19.4% Usage, 100.1 Offensive Rating
  • 2014-15:  12.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 57.6 % FG, 72.4 % FT, 23.9 MPG, 23.3% Usage, 119.0 Offensive Rating

Williams really hasn’t been mentioned much since his suspension for the first two games of the season along with fellow sophomore Stanford Robinson. As a result, his improved play has gone mostly unnoticed due to the hype surrounding freshmen James Blackmon Jr. and Robert Johnson. His numbers are up across the board, though, and he’s been especially effective as this year’s team incorporates a good deal of their transition offense without the scourge of last season’s turnovers. Williams has also been really consistent, reaching double-figure scoring in all eight of his games and pulling down four rebounds or more in every game but one (the Hoosiers’ Jimmy V Classic loss to Louisville). He’s also cut the long jumpers out of his game in favor of more shots at the rim after making only 20.7 percent of his three-point attempts last season. This is the root cause of his significant jump in field goal percentage. He’s still flying around and making a lot of plays based on his athleticism, but this season he is doing so in a much more efficient manner.

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Sorting Through the Big Ten’s Murky Middle

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 17th, 2014

There have been 142 non-conference games involving Big Ten teams thus far, and yet it can be reasonably argued that we really don’t know much more than we did before the games tipped off on November 14. What we do know is that Wisconsin is still the clear-cut favorite and Rutgers will probably struggle to stay out of the league basement. That means that the other 12 teams are still clustered together into a large pack. Some have bigger wins than others; some have better offenses than others; while some have a marquee player who can get hot and carry them for a while. This exercise is meant to rank those other teams based on a number of different categories to see which is performing as the best and worst of the bunch right now . I’m no math major, so I simply took a look at twelve key categories and ranked each team accordingly. Some are subjective, some are objective, and it’s by no means perfect. But the categories on which I ranked each team are as follows:

Denzel Valentine is leading an efficient Michigan State offense in scoring so far. (Getty)

Denzel Valentine is leading an efficient Michigan State offense in scoring so far. (Getty)

  • Best Win
  • Worst Loss
  • Point Differential in home games against teams ranked #150 or above
  • Eye Test
  • Schedule Strength
  • Best Player
  • Offensive Efficiency
  • Defensive Efficiency
  • Assist Rate
  • Turnovers
  • Rebounding
  • Three Point Shooting

After crunching the numbers, here are the results.

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Big Ten M5: 12.17.14 Edition

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 17th, 2014

 

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  1. Michigan has struggled more than people thought coming off of a National Championship game appearance and an Elite Eight run in the last two seasons. One of the reasons for this season’s struggles has been the loss of key inside players Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford. “Morford,” as the duo was nicknamed throughout Big Ten telecasts a year ago may have not been flashy, but they were consistent and did a good job defensively down low. The season is not a lost one yet for the Wolverines, but things will have to get much better on the defensive end of the floor with freshmen Marc Donnal and Ricky Doyle for this unit to even sniff the postseason success they have had recently.
  2. Michigan State plays four games in the next nine days, and they will look to avoid falling prey to an Eastern Michigan team that knocked off state-rival Michigan recently. How the Spartans attack Eastern’s 2-3 zone is just one of the interesting subplots to monitor in the coming days for Sparty. Freshman Javon Bess should make his debut tonight, which will give Tom Izzo some different looks as far as how he can set his rotation.
  3. Ohio State will get tested Saturday when they play North Carolina in Chicago. They have to play North Carolina A&T first on Wednesday, but playing on a neutral floor will be the last real test the team gets in non-conference play against a quality opponent. It will be worth noting whether the Buckeyes can handle a big team that makes its living on the offensive glass, especially since Marcus Paige has been struggling to shoot the ball. Amir Williams and Trey McDonald will have to have good days on the boards for Ohio State to prevail.
  4. Illinois already has more non-conference losses than they did last season, and Saturday’s loss to Oregon at the United Center in Chicago wasn’t exactly their best performance. Should Illini fans really be worried that this team might be destined for another NIT berth? Some disturbing trends from the loss to the Ducks were the fact that Rayvonte Rice had to resort to carrying the offense like he did for a good chunk of 2013-14, and the fact that Oregon was able to score in the paint seemingly at will. Losses to Villanova and Miami (Florida) weren’t bad losses from a resume perspective, but there were signs in those losses as well that this team might struggle later on. Illinois may need quite a few conference wins against Big Ten heavyweights to make the field of 68 for the second time in John Groce‘s tenure.
  5. Joe Lunardi hasn’t released anything yet, but Jerry Palm of CBS has seven Big Ten teams currently in his NCAA Tournament field. One surprise would have to be Penn State coming in as a number ten seed. Despite their 10-1 record, the Nittany Lions only win against a team projected to be in the field was against George Washington. It’s also worth noting that Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Purdue were left out of the field at this time. This saga will be an ongoing one all season, with the national perception of the league not nearly being as strong as it has been in recent seasons. The wins that would have carried more weight in the last couple of years might not mean as much as 2014 turns to 2015.
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How Can Iowa Fix Its Offensive Problems? A Few Ideas…

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 16th, 2014

Iowa has gotten off to an 8-3 start this season, with what should be an important road win over North Carolina already on its resume. The Hawkeyes also don’t have any bad losses (unless Syracuse ends up faltering in the ACC), using their depth and size to bully the teams that they should beat — winning those games by an average of 25.9 points. While last year’s bugaboo, the defense, has improved significantly, the offense has faltered, going from the fifth best offensive efficiency nationally to 64th. If it’s not one thing; it’s another — that might be the mantra around Iowa City this season. What has caused Iowa’s offensive problems this season, and what can the team do to fix them?

Iowa (Photo Credit: AP)

Iowa Has Traded Better Defense for Worse Offense This Season (Photo Credit: AP)

The Hawkeyes have worse offensive numbers pretty much across the board this season. Losing go-to scorer Roy Devyn Marble has hurt considerably, but the loss of Melsahn Basabe and his 11.7 percent offensive rebounding rate hasn’t helped. Iowa is playing at a slower tempo (two fewer possessions per game), but it’s also taking more threes (25 percent vs. 21 percent). They also have a tendency to settle for long twos, leading to fewer free throw attempts and a drop in effective field goal percentage from 51.2 to 47.0 percent this year. Aaron White is still doing Aaron White things, meaning he gets to the line and scores in transition; and Gabriel Olaseni is also still putting up numbers consistent with his production from last season. But Mike Gesell, Jarrod Uthoff, Adam Woodbury and Josh Oglesby have all seen their offensive ratings take a dip without a corresponding increase in usage rates. Losing Marble has obviously caused a strain across the board, as he not only took a high volume of shots but could also create for himself when things got tough.

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