Some Big Ten X-Factors That Will Shape the Conference Race

Posted by Brendan Brody on December 29th, 2014

It’s easy to sit here and write that players like Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky and Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell will be key factors in how the Big Ten race shapes up once conference play begins this week. It’s a little harder to dig deeper and find several of the league’s non-superstars who will also have significant roles in the final determinations. Is it the freshman who starts to understand the speed of the game and plays much better with a few games under his belt? Or is it the underachieving senior who plays with an increased urgency now that his career is coming to a close? Here’s a look at several non-household Big Ten players who will be key cogs for their teams over the next couple of months.

Bronson Koenig has played well after struggling early for Wisconsin. (Reuters)

Bronson Koenig has played well after struggling early for Wisconsin. (Reuters)

  • Bronson Koenig: The sophomore guard struggled in his first five games, only averaging 2.8 PPG on 33 percent shooting from the floor. Since then, he’s increased his output to 6.3 PPG on 40 percent shooting over seven games. The Badgers have not yet really replaced the three-point production of Ben Brust despite their 12-1 record, so Koenig will need to be a more consistent offensive option when he gets called upon.
  • Aaron Cosby: Illinois has done a good job in being less reliant on Rayvonte Rice this season. His usage rate has only dropped only a bit (from 26.6 to 25.8 percent), but his minutes are reduced as well (27.8 MPG). The Illini’s offense is therefore more balanced, and it will be even better if Aaron Cosby can regain his shooting touch. In Illini wins, Cosby has made 36.5 percent of his shots from distance. In three losses, he’s made only 20.0 percent. He’s done a good job contributing in other ways — like when he grabbed seven rebounds in a win against Missouri — but Cosby is in Champaign to make jump shots. If he can get things rolling and shoot like he did when he was at Seton Hall for his first two seasons (nearly 40 percent from three), Illinois will be hard to stop.

  • Marc Loving: Loving is one of the best shooters in the Big Ten, yet he only takes 6.8 shots per game. He needs to be more aggressive in looking for his attempts instead of just spotting up and hoping he receives the ball within the offense. He’s also athletic enough to get to the basket more often than he does, and would be wise to do so with his sparkling 89.6 percent shooting from the charity stripe. Loving has the athletic tools to be a much better rebounder as well, so an increase in his current 3.1 RPG will be vital. Ohio State has gotten killed on the glass in the two games it has lost this season, so the progression of the 6’7″ sophomore could help alleviate those problems.
  • Leslee Smith: Smith hasn’t yet played a game this season, but he’s expected back from his offseason knee surgery once conference play gets under way. With Walter Pitchford struggling and with Moses Abraham also out with a broken wrist, Smith is going to be extremely important when he returns. Right now the Cornhuskers have almost no depth, playing only seven men in their rotation. Shavon Shields and Terran Petteway have had to do everything, including the dirty work down low. Smith will allow them to concentrate on what they do best, and will really help Nebraska with their rebounding issues. They are currently only grabbing 26.8 percent of their misses on the offensive end, and Smith’s 13.o percent offensive rebounding rate was good for second in the B1G last season. Many people have already written Nebraska off at this point in the season, but with the returns of both Smith and Abraham, this could be a team going forward that more closely resembles last year’s group that finished fourth in the league.
  • Josh Oglesby: Iowa hasn’t been good on offense, and it’s mainly because they simply cannot make shots this season. Their 30.8 percent three-point percentage ranks 260th in the country, and Oglesby shooting 14-of-53 from deep definitely isn’t helping things. A 40 percent shooter last season, Ogelsby is clearly lacking confidence right now. If he can find the range and give Iowa another offensive option, their 108th ranked offense will markedly improve. Fran McCaffery’s unit is defending much better this season, so an improved offense to go along with their depth will make this team a factor. Ogelsby could be the spark that gets things heading in that direction.
  • Carlos Morris: This newcomer from the junior college ranks has been a nice surprise for the Gophers. He’s averaging 13.0 PPG, but his 2.2 steals per contest has been part of the reason why the team is currently second in the nation behind only West Virginia with their 16.6 percent steals rate. Morris needs to continue to be a pest in the press and a double-digit scorer for an 11-2 team that looks to return to the NCAA Tournament. Teams will key in defensively on Andre Hollins with increased intensity, so Morris needs to remain a secondary option who can get to to rim for Richard Pitino’s club.
Brendan Brody (307 Posts)

Brendan Brody is in his fourth season covering the Big Ten for RTC. Email him at brendan.brody@gmail.com, or follow him on twitter @berndon4.


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