The Big East Stock Report: Our Thoughts on Seth Davis’ Hoop Thoughts Stock Report
Posted by mlemaire on January 4th, 2013Sports Illustrated‘s Seth Davis is one of the more well-known and well-read national college basketball writers and that is not without justification. One of his most popular annual features is “The Hoop Thoughts Stock Report” where Davis analyzes a sizable group of key programs (this year 42 teams) and gives them each a “Buy,” “Sell,” or “Hold” rating based on his opinion on the program’s true value in relation to its current ranking. It is quite a prolific feature and Davis does an excellent job this year as always, but of course he is not the only man in the blogosphere who knows how to read the college hoops stock market. We fancy ourselves a bit of an intrepid investor and speculator, especially when it comes to the teams we cover from the Big East, so we went ahead and added our own rating to each of the Big East teams in Davis’ piece.
CINCINNATI (13-1, No. 14)
Davis said: SELL We say: HOLD
Like Davis, we understand the concept that marquee wins like the Bearcats triumph over Pittsburgh on the road make it a less appealing stock to buy, but let’s not rush to sell the stock quite yet. The team’s poor free-throw shooting is troubling and will be even more glaring in the NCAA Tournament, but the Panthers were one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country and Cincinnati completely outplayed them on both ends of the floor in the second half. Mick Cronin‘s half-court offense isn’t the prettiest to watch but it isn’t all that bad either, especially when you consider they are one of the best rebounding teams in the country across the floor and have a trio of at least competent outside shooters. We aren’t convinced the Bearcats are the second-best team in the conference quite yet, but they certainly look like a team that will play Syracuse and Louisville very tough and they only play each of those teams once the rest of the way… so for now they seem appropriately ranked.
GEORGETOWN (10-1, No. 15)
Davis said: BUY We say: SELL
We Are Not As High On Georgetown As Seth Is (Credit: Matt Sullivan/Reuters)
The Hoyas may have seen a few folks panic and sell their stock after their affront to basketball win over Tennessee, but that game made it clear that John Thompson III‘s young team is going to experience some growing pains as it begins to get comfortable in the offense. Their athleticism and length on defense will ensure that the Hoyas will play a lot of low-scoring grind-it-out games, which may be to their benefit; and Otto Porter is an athletic monster, rapidly improving as a basketball player every week, but in many ways they seem like a slightly less experienced, less deep, less physical version of Cincinnati, right down to the atrocious free-throw shooting. The team’s competitive game against Indiana shows they have the potential to knock off anyone in the conference, but we also get the feeling that they have the potential to be knocked off by a lesser team just as easily. That scares us enough to think this stock has reached its peak and should be sold.
LOUISVILLE (13-1, No. 4)
Davis said : BUY We say: BUY
The Cardinals’ stock price is already so high that it seems foolish to buy in now, but after watching Arizona’s performance against Colorado and Michigan’s defense (at least relative to the other contenders), it’s hard not to believe that Louisville will climb higher before all is said and done. Gorgui Dieng is back and contributing on both ends of the floor. Russ Smith has been one of the most dynamic offensive players in the country and is showing no signs of slowing down. And Chane Behanan is a steadily improving, periodic force in the paint. They play perhaps the best defense in the entire country, have improved leaps and bounds on offense, could conceivably go nine deep, and are coached by one of the game’s greats. Anything short of the Final Four for this team would be extremely disappointing — the Cards are a popular national champion pick at this juncture in this season and it is hard to disagree. You may not get rich buying this stock, but it is a good low-risk long-term investment.
NOTRE DAME (12-1, No. 21)
Davis said: BUY We say: HOLD
The Fighting Irish don’t play the same brand of defense that the aforementioned trio of programs do so they will take some unlikely lumps in conference play, but they have the right mix of personnel and commitment to their style that their stock will likely even out before all is said and done. It’s hard not to love Fighting Irish forward Jack Cooley or the backcourt duo of Eric Atkins and Jerami Grant and their offensive balance combined with coach Mike Brey‘s unique offensive style. But they are not that deep, they struggle to force turnovers, and their best win in the non-conference slate was against an inexperienced and incredibly young Kentucky team in the friendly confines of South Bend. When you are juggling multiple stocks like we are, it never hurts to be prudent with one or two of them, and the Fighting Irish haven’t shown enough against true competition to warrant a “Buy” rating. It is true that their early conference slate looks appealing aside from Monday’s game against Cincinnati, but that’s only because once the schedule hits February, it will be tough sledding in almost every game the rest of the way.
SYRACUSE (13-1, No. 7)
Davis said : SELL We say: SELL
This was the easiest stock to agree with Davis on because we really don’t believe that Syracuse is a top 10 team right now. If the Orange were ranked in the #12-#15 range, we might recommend holding onto the stock given the team’s vast potential and talent, but Jim Boeheim‘s club was slightly exposed in its loss to Temple. They feasted on lesser teams throughout their non-conference slate and looked really good in the process, artificially boosting their stock just a smidgen. There is nothing artificial about their defense or the prodigious talents of James Southerland and Michael Carter-Williams, but as Davis points out they don’t shoot the ball well from outside and might be even worse from the free throw line. The key to the success of this stock will be the performance of the Orange’s three contributing freshmen the rest of the way. If they can start contributing in games that matter and earning more minutes, the whole team will be better off, but for now, sell this stock and count the money you saved in a few weeks.
UCONN (10-3)
Davis Said: SELL We say: BUY
Davis is astute in pointing out that this stock probably won’t move the needle much in either direction for its owners, but the stock is pretty cheap right now and it never hurts to gamble. We aren’t buying Davis’ argument that making Kevin Ollie the permanent head coach will make this team any less motivated to make a statement this season because Ollie won’t let that happen, but the concerns about the dearth of an interior presence is warranted criticism. Make no mistake: Teams like Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse have the interior talent to blow out the Huskies, but Connecticut only plays those three teams once each this season and instead double-draws the ranked conference foes that figure to be better match-ups (Georgetown and Cincinnati). The Huskies have legitimate talent and they also have a legitimate gripe that they were screwed in their overtime loss to Marquette so we just happen to believe their stock is a bit undervalued right now.
