NCAA Tournament Instareaction: ACC
Posted by Matt Patton on March 13th, 2016The ACC got seven bids to the NCAA Tournament. While not a huge surprise, Syracuse was very, very fortunate to earn an at-large bid. Additionally, Roy Williams ended up correctly predicting that both North Carolina and Virginia would wind up on the top seed line. Here are some quick best- and worst-case scenarios for the ACC teams in the field.
North Carolina Celebrated Another ACC Tournament Title Yesterday. (Photo by Liz Condo, theACC.com)
North Carolina (#1 East): The Tar Heels were the second overall seed, which shows how much the committee respects winning both the regular season and conference tournament titles (and perhaps also considered the time Marcus Paige missed from injury). That means a pair of opening round games in Raleigh, but the bad news for North Carolina fans is that the #4 and #5 seeds in the region (Kentucky and Indiana) are both grossly underseeded. It almost guarantees a challenging Sweet Sixteen game in Philadelphia.
- Best Case: The Tar Heels build on their recent momentum and win the National Championship.
- Worst Case: North Carolina’s Sweet Sixteen opponent is firing on all cylinders from behind the arc and sends the Tar Heels packing.
Virginia (#1 Midwest): In another surprise twist, Virginia was a #1 seed and the third overall (the committee must have watched the ACC Tournament!) with a trip to Raleigh on tap for the first weekend. The Cavaliers have a great chance to make it to the regional in Chicago, but #5 Purdue could be a very challenging Sweet Sixteen opponent. The rest of the bracket is favorable with one glaring exception: #2 seed Michigan State. The Spartans will be favored to meet Virginia in the Elite Eight and have ended Virginia’s postseason in each of the past two seasons.
- Best Case: Virginia finally breaks through and silences the doubters with the school’s first National Championship.
- Worst Case: Virginia, worn out by an incredibly talented Purdue team, is destroyed by the Spartans (leaving Tony Bennett thrilled that he opted to not go to the Big Ten).
Miami (#3 South): Miami was the 10th overall seed and drew an absolute gauntlet. The Hurricanes’ Second Round game is guaranteed to be against an under-seeded opponent (either Arizona, Wichita State or Vanderbilt), and if they can find their way to the Sweet Sixteen, Villanova or an underrated Iowa are possible opponents there. To add insult to injury, overall #1 seed Kansas could await in Louisville if the Hurricanes manage to escape the first three rounds.
- Best Case: Miami makes it to the Elite Eight before falling to an experienced, well-coached Kansas team.
- Worst Case: Miami loses in the first weekend to any of its three possible Second Round opponents. Arizona, Wichita State and Vanderbilt are ranked 16th, 12th, and 27th by Ken Pomeroy (!).
Duke (#4 West): Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Duke received a favorable draw. The Selection Committee slotted Duke as a top four seed, even ahead of Kentucky (which beat Duke head-to-head when the Blue Devils were at full strength). All jokes aside (most years, Duke’s favorable draws have been overrated stories), the Blue Devils are happy. Their most likely Second Round matchup is against #5 seed Baylor, but the Bears are the consensus worst team on that line and may not even get there — they draw a really tough Yale team that should get good fan support in Providence. If the Blue Devils outlast the first weekend, Oregon, the most beatable #1 seed, won’t scare Coach K’s team.
- Best Case: Duke makes the Elite Eight before running into the Buddy Hield buzzsaw in Anaheim.
- Worst Case: Neither Grayson Allen nor Brandon Ingram can buy a shot against Baylor and Mike Kryzyewski’s team falls on the first weekend.
Notre Dame (#6 East): The good news is that Notre Dame should win its first game. The bad news is that West Virginia is probably waiting in the Second Round. That said, the Mountaineers will likely get a serious game from Stephen F. Austin, which could mean tired legs or a #14 seed waiting in round two. Mike Brey’s team also doesn’t match up poorly with the Mountaineers, at least on paper.
Notre Dame Should Be Happy With Their Seed Line, But Maybe Not Their Potential Second Round Opponent (Photo by Liz Condo, theACC.com)
- Best Case: Favorable matchups on the bottom half of the bracket work in Notre Dame’s favor and they make another run to the Elite Eight.
- Worst Case: Still shaken from the thrashing by North Carolina, the Fighting Irish are upset in the First Round by a team determined to justify their inclusion in the field.
Pittsburgh (#10 East): Pittsburgh finds itself on the same seed line as conference-mate Syracuse, but draws a better first round opponent in Wisconsin than the Orange (which drew Dayton).
- Best Case: Early season Wisconsin shows up and Pittsburgh is firing on all cylinders, crashing the offensive glass and making jump shots. The Panthers lose a close game in the Second Round to a very talented Xavier team.
- Worst Case: Late (regular) season Wisconsin shows up and blows the “happy to be there” Panthers out in the opening round.
Syracuse (#10 Midwest): A questionable selection, the Orange should be happy to be a part of this year’s NCAA Tournament. They should actually be favored in a #7-#10 First Round game with Dayton, but won’t stand much of a chance to advance further if they make it to play Michigan State.
- Best Case: Syracuse wins one game and holds its own against the Spartans before running out of gas late in the second half.
- Worst Case: Syracuse falls in the First Round and a forgettable season is quickly forgotten.
