Elite Eight Storylines
Posted by Henry Bushnell on March 28th, 2015
As we move into a loaded Elite Eight this weekend, here are five storylines to keep an eye on over the next 36 hours of action. Enjoy!
Elite Eight Storylines
Duke, Along With Kentucky, Arizona, Louisville, Michigan State, Gonzaga… It’s a Loaded Elite Eight (USA Today Images)
Bluebloods. Last year, when Dayton went to the Elite Eight as a #11 seed, it was a nice story. But the Flyers’ regional final game against Florida was no contest. It wasn’t as if Dayton had no shot to win, but it was clear from the opening tip that the Flyers were overmatched. It’s fun to romanticize about underdogs making a long run in the NCAA Tournament, but the reality is that they usually run face first into a reality check (and thus a fairly dull game). For some, it happens later than others — see 2011 Butler, which lost in the national championship game to Connecticut — but it eventually happens. This year there’s no Dayton. There’s not even a Butler or a VCU. We’ve done away with the little guys. The likelihood of one team getting completely overwhelmed from a pure talent perspective is unlikely. There is still a #7 seed on the board, but Michigan State is anything but a plucky upstart. There is also a double-digit point spread in one of tonight’s games, but that says more about Kentucky than the ACC champs. So while it would have been cool to see Xavier knock off Arizona, we have what we want in the end: a bunch of bluebloods and some outstanding matchups.
Coaching Superstars. It’s often said that great coaching triumphs in March, so think about the eight coaches who are still remaining: the least successful of the eight is probably Mike Brey – yes, the same Mike Brey who’s been to 12 NCAA Tournaments and just won an ACC Tournament title in his second year in the league. Statistics aside, everybody knows that Brey is just a darn good coach. He finds himself in quite the elite company this weekend. The aggregate tenure of all eight coaches at their respective schools is 126 years, and between them, they have exactly 4,400 Division I wins. The coaching matchups on the right side of the bracket are especially compelling. Tom Izzo and Rick Pitino are statistically the two best NCAA Tournament coaches of the modern era, and Mark Few and Mike Krzyzewski have combined for 49 conference regular season or tournament titles. Wow.
Is Notre Dame Kentucky’s first real challenge? As much as they might have looked like it on Thursday night against West Virginia, the Wildcats aren’t unbeatable. Each of the seven teams remaining in the Elite Eight would have a somewhat realistic shot to beat Kentucky with some breaks. Notre Dame gets the first crack at ruining perfection this evening, and their chances likely depend on playing a near-perfect offensive game. The Irish are certainly capable of that – they have the second most efficient offense in the land – but they’ll be completely overmatched physically. Jerian Grant must get the Irish out in transition and find his teammates a bunch of open three-point looks before the Wildcats can set their defense. Notre Dame is actually the best two-point field goal offense in the nation as well, but they’ll struggle to replicate that success against Kentucky’s gargantuan front line.
Arizona Has Waited a Year For Tonight’s Opportunity (USA Today Images)
Arizona-Wisconsin, part 2. Wisconsin and Arizona gave us arguably the best game of the NCAA Tournament a year ago. On that Saturday evening in Anaheim, the Badgers edged the Wildcats in overtime on their way to Bo Ryan’s first Final Four. So what has changed? For one, both teams are probably better now. Arizona, the #2 seed in this year’s iteration, is favored, and has been on a roll since February. The Wildcats are deeper than last year’s group and are an improved offensive team. For Wisconsin, individual players such as Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig have taken huge strides, making the Badgers even more difficult to defend. This looks like another 50-50 bet, and has the prospects of another instant classic. Just as Utah vs. Duke was an Elite Eight matchup in the Sweet Sixteen, this is a Final Four matchup in the Elite Eight.
Michigan State almost feels like a ‘team of destiny.’ Of course, the idea of such a team is probably complete nonsense. But during last night’s second half against Oklahoma, there was a striking sense of inevitability that the Spartans would do just enough to win the game, no matter how much it took. On paper, Michigan State is a flawed team. Every player in the rotation, even Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine, has a limited skill set in some meaningful way. But Trice and Valentine, and at times Branden Dawson, have been willing their team to March victories despite those obvious shortcomings. And then there’s Izzo in March, a phenomenon we know all too well about. The Spartans will face another team in Louisville that has been playing its best basketball at the right time of year, and another coach who shouldn’t be doubted at this time of year. It’s gotten to the point where analyzing the details and finer points of the matchup is fruitless.
