And Then There Were 10: A Look at the Remaining Unbeatens
Posted by Henry Bushnell on December 12th, 2014We are exactly four weeks – four eventful and enthralling weeks – into the 2014-15 college basketball season. And while at times the non-conference season can get a bit monotonous, this time around it’s been anything but. Most of the top teams have challenged themselves, and we’ve already had several marquee match-ups that gave us a telling look at some squads that we assume will be contenders come March. As far as the hunt for a perfect season goes, there have already been significant casualties. Wichita State’s 35-game regular season winning streak was shot down in overtime by Utah. Top 10 teams Wisconsin and Kansas fell to Duke and Kentucky, respectively, in two titanic clashes. A strong Gonzaga team also came up just short against Arizona, which is easily the best team the Zags will play all season.
Ten teams now retain unblemished résumés through the first 28 days of action. And whereas in many seasons there are multiple mid-majors who feast on weak teams and get through the first month without a loss, that’s not the case this year. Two of the 10 come from non-power conferences, but neither is a fluke – both are decent bets for an at-large bid come March (if they don’t win their conference tournaments, of course). And only one of the 10 might be considered a total fluke. Let’s now take a look at these 10 teams, their remaining schedules, the biggest threats to their unbeaten records, and their chances to progress into January, February and beyond, unscathed.
Note: teams listed in order of KenPom probability of an undefeated regular season as of December 11, 2014.
Given Kentucky’s Talent, Coaching and Conference, the Wildcats Easily Have the Best Shot to Go Unbeaten (credit: USA Today)
- Kentucky (10-0) | Probability of perfect regular season: 4.6%
“Kentucky” and “undefeated” have been appearing in the same sentence a lot ever since the Wildcats demolished Kansas in Indianapolis in mid-November, and the Wildcats are by far the most likely team to accomplish the feat. KenPom’s model in fact probably undersells their chances. The biggest potential impediment to the notion might actually be the three-game stretch that begins this weekend in Lexington with a visit from North Carolina. Kentucky then plays UCLA in Chicago next weekend followed by a true road game at Louisville. The third of those three games is particularly tough, but John Calipari will have a week ahead of time to prepare for his team’s biggest rivalry game. And with the SEC down this year – like, waaaaay down – if Kentucky can get through these next three, the possibility of an unbeaten regular season is quite real. A February 7 trip to Florida could present a challenge if the Gators correct some of their current issues, but other than that, the toughest other conference games are either at Georgia, at LSU or at South Carolina. I’d put Kentucky’s chances to run the table somewhere around 15 percent.
- Duke (8-0) | Probability of perfect regular season: 1.1%
The Blue Devils are the second best team in the country right now, but they haven’t been as dominant as Kentucky. More importantly for our purposes here, though, their schedule is a lot meatier. There’s actually a fairly strong possibility that Duke remains unbeaten over the next month or so – a neutral-site game against UConn next week is the biggest test – but the ACC is full of roadblocks. A three-game, seven-day mid-January stretch sees Duke travel to NC State, host a good Miami team, and then travel to Louisville. A week later, a three-game road trip takes them to St. John’s, Notre Dame and Virginia. If the Blue Devils can survive all of that, which includes two road games against top-five teams, then we can talk. But while this Duke team is very good, it isn’t that good. The ACC should hand Coach K his first 2014-15 loss in January.
- Virginia (9-0) | Probability of perfect regular season: 0.8%
The Cavaliers are legit – don’t let anybody tell you otherwise. This is an experienced and talented team with a distinct identity, and it’s led by a very good coach in Tony Bennett. Their problem, though, like Duke’s, is a brutal conference schedule. First of all, getting to ACC play safe is no guarantee, as UVA is slated to play Harvard and Davidson later this month. Getting through conference play without a loss, though, will be nearly impossible. The Cavs might actually be favored in every game they play until the finale against Louisville, but there are so many strong teams scattered about that one off night could spell the end of the streak. If Virginia can get past Miami in the ACC opener, they’ll have a decent chance to roll through a month of conference play without a loss. But starting on January 31, Virginia will host Duke, play at UNC, and host Louisville back-to-back-to-back. Making it past the first week of February would be quite an accomplishment.
- Villanova (9-0) | Probability of perfect regular season: 0.7%
The Big East is deeper than many expected it to be this season. If it weren’t for that fact, Villanova could dream of running the table, but now an unbeaten regular season seems pretty implausible. One game in the near future to watch is a home date with Syracuse on December 20. Once conference play arrives, Butler, St. John’s and Xavier will present early obstacles, and a January 19 game at Georgetown is probably the Wildcats’ most difficult remaining game. The thing about this schedule is that there are no truly elite teams on it, and the Wildcats should be favored in every game the rest of the way. But as in the case with Virginia, the probability that they slip up at least once is high because many of the teams in the middle of the Big East pack are legitimate threats.
- Louisville (8-0) | Probability of perfect regular season: 0.3%
Louisville is right up there with Duke and Virginia in the ACC, and the Cards actually avoid a trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium this year – so why is their unbeaten probability so much lower? Well, because they play Kentucky on December 27. The Cardinals match up fairly well with Big Blue, perhaps better than anybody in the nation, but that game means their chances to get to conference play undefeated are less than 50 percent. Even if Louisville beats Kentucky, though, the ACC is, as previously discussed, perilous.
- Arizona (9-0) | Probability of perfect regular season: 0.3%
Arizona’s Maui Performance Set the Tone for the Wildcats (USA Today/Brian Spurlock)
The Pac-12 doesn’t really have a second blue-blood to match Arizona, and the Wildcats have impressed in its wins over San Diego State and Gonzaga. Even the doubts about their offense are a bit overblown. But Sean Miller just doesn’t have the same depth and talent on his roster that Kentucky and Duke or even Louisville have. They also don’t have that one star player who can bail them out in a close game. That’s why staying undefeated will be so hard for this team. In fact, don’t sleep on a December 19 trip to UTEP. Then, once conference play rolls around, January includes road games at Oregon, Stanford and Cal, and a visit from Utah. There’s an outside chance Arizona can survive until February, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
- Northern Iowa (9-0) | Probability of perfect regular season: 0.03%
The Panthers are flying under the radar, and aren’t even the best or most-discussed team in their conference – that’s Wichita State – but they’ve looked very strong. However, their only win of significance came at Stephen F. Austin in overtime. Northern Iowa is probably a Tournament team, but even just getting to Christmas without a first loss will be difficult. The Panthers travel to VCU tomorrow – an intriguing game because of how slow the Panthers like to play – and then visit Iowa next Saturday. They’ll make some noise if they win both of those, because the Missouri Valley is a two-team league this year and the first Wichita State match-up isn’t until January 31. But simply beating the Shockers twice is a really big ask in itself.
- Colorado State (9-0) | Probability of perfect regular season: <0.01%
The Rams knocked off intrastate rival Colorado Wednesday night in Boulder and already have wins over a sneaky-good Georgia State team and UTEP. But they open the Mountain West with Boise State, New Mexico and Wyoming. One of those initial tilts should bring Colorado State its first defeat.
- Washington (7-0) | Probability of perfect regular season: <0.01%
Washington is one of the mysteries of the early season. Are the Huskies really as good as their record suggests? Their win over ice-cold San Diego State was nice, but we’ll soon find out much more. Lorenzo Romar’s team takes on Oklahoma in Las Vegas next Saturday, and their first Pac-12 road trip pits them against Cal and Stanford. Later in January, the schedule is even less forgiving. Don’t expect this unblemished mark to last much longer.
10. TCU (9-0) | Probability of perfect regular season: <0.01%
The Horned Frogs have played nobody. Okay, they did beat both Mississippi and Mississippi State, but other than that, their best win is at home against Radford. Radford. They’ll probably make it to January unbeaten, but TCU is still arguably the worst team in the Big 12. That’ll be evident when they open conference play with West Virginia, Kansas State and Baylor. The Horned Frogs will lose at least one of those, if not all three.
