Halfway Home: Evaluating the Big Ten And Looking Ahead
Posted by jnowak on February 1st, 2012We’re halfway home in Big Ten conference play and it’s easy to argue that the conference race is no more sorted out now than it was on day one. But we can still take a good, hard look at how teams have performed and what we can reasonably expect from them the rest of the way. Here’s our midseason team evaluations, grading each squad on its overall performance through the non-conference slate and first half of Big Ten play. We also have offer a best- and worst-case scenario for each club the rest of the way, as well as a more reasonable expectation.
Illinois (16-6 overall, 5-4 Big Ten)
- Overall Grade: B
- Worst-case scenario: Illinois beats Northwestern this week, but wins just three more games the rest of the way (at Nebraska, against Purdue and against Iowa).
- Best-case scenario: The Fighting Illini maintain homecourt advantage the rest of way, handling Purdue and Michigan and stealing back-to-back road wins in Ann Arbor and Bloomington to pad their resume.
- Reasonable expectation: With trips to Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin remaining, the Illini have an uphill climb ahead of them. And that’s not good news for Bruce Weber.
Indiana (17-5 overall, 5-5 Big Ten)
Crean Has Indiana Looking Up But He Needs Some Road Wins
- Overall Grade: B+
- Worst-case scenario: The Hoosiers continue to struggle on the road, and lose at Michigan, Purdue and Minnesota. Sprinkle a home loss to Michigan State in there, and they finish with a 9-9 conference record. The Goodwill stores in Bloomington are overwhelmed with once-trendy “We’re Baaaaack” t-shirts.
- Best-case scenario: Cody Zeller finds the mojo he was working with early in the season, and leads the Hoosiers to the Sweet Sixteen as Tom Crean is named Big Ten Coach of the Year.
- Reasonable expectation: The Hoosiers are not the Top 10 team many thought they suddenly were early on, but they can do enough to get into the NCAA Tournament and solidify an overachieving season.
Iowa (11-11 overall, 3-6 Big Ten)
- Overall Grade: C+
- Worst-case scenario: The Hawkeyes split meetings against Penn State and Northwestern, lose at Nebraska and are blown out by Indiana and Wisconsin at home.
- Best-case scenario: Iowa picks up the pace against some of the weakest competition in the league, and goes 5-4 the rest of the way.
- Reasonable expectation: Most of the heavy lifting is out of the way, but Iowa will hover around .500 the rest of the season.
Michigan (16-6 overall, 6-3 Big Ten)
- Overall Grade: B+
- Worst-case scenario: Michigan can’t heat up at home against Indiana, Ohio State or Illinois, and also loses in East Lansing and Champaign. Into the NCAA Tournament, but as a low seed.
- Best-case scenario: The disciplined Wolverines finish 3-1 at home and 4-1 on the road, are in the mix for the Big Ten title and break through to the Sweet Sixteen.
- Reasonable expectation: The Wolverines are poised on the perimeter and can shoot with anybody in the league, but lack consistent inside presence. They’ll hang around at the top of the standings and give teams fits in the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan State (17-5 overall, 6-3 Big Ten)
- Overall Grade: B+
- Worst-case scenario: The Spartans’ second-half schedule is a nightmare and Tom Izzo‘s group can’t find a rhythm through a brutal road stretch. Spartans drop out of the Top 25.
- Best-case scenario: Izzo continues to get this group to grow, as Michigan State narrowly misses the Big Ten title but makes its patented run for another Final Four in New Orleans.
- Reasonable expectation: When all is said and done, this team will have slightly overachieved, but the remaining schedule is a wake-up call. Still, the Spartans have the tools to head back to the Sweet Sixteen.
Minnesota (16-6 overall, 4-5 Big Ten)
To Tubby and UM, it may have been worth it.
- Overall Grade: B
- Worst-case scenario: The loss of Trevor Mbakwe really sets in as the Golden Gophers drop six of their last nine games.
- Best-case scenario: The Gophers maintain their groove, take care of the cupcake road games and hold serve at home. They’ll be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament.
- Reasonable expectation: This team has talent, depth and an experienced head coach who knows how to weather the storm. An NCAA Tournament berth is well within reach.
Nebraska (11-9 overall, 3-6 Big Ten)
- Overall Grade: C
- Worst-case scenario: The rude welcome to the conference continues, despite a pretty easy second-half slate, and the Cornhuskers finish at the bottom of the standings.
- Best-case scenario: The Huskers hold their own against Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State and pull an upset against Purdue or Minnesota to stay out of the Big Ten cellar.
- Reasonable expectation: Nebraska has dealt with the toughest part of their Big Ten initiation, and can continue to get their legs underneath them by season’s end.
Northwestern (12-8 overall, 2-6 Big Ten)
- Overall Grade: C+
- Worst-case scenario: The Wildcats’ weak non-conference slate comes back to haunt them as they can’t make any considerable noise in the conference after knocking off Michigan State. Back to the NIT — again.
- Best-case scenario: Northwestern gets another signature win, a little help from the Big Ten’s strength of schedule and wins a Big Ten Tournament game to narrowly slide into the NCAA Tournament — finally.
- Reasonable expectation: To Northwestern’s credit, they win the games they should, but also lose the games they (with the exception of Michigan State) are expected to. The losses are close, but they’re still losses, and they’re mounting. Another NIT bid, if they’re lucky.
Ohio State (19-3 overall, 7-2 Big Ten)
- Overall Grade: A-
- Worst-case scenario: The Buckeyes slip again in Big Ten play, bow out of the Big Ten Tournament early as fatigue sets in, and are upset before the Elite Eight.
- Best-case scenario: The Buckeyes hold court in the conference, run the table through conference tournament play and cut down the nets in New Orleans. After other squads underachieved, Thad Matta finally gets his national title.
- Reasonable expectation: Ohio State won’t run the table to New Orleans, but Jared Sullinger and Co. will be in New Orleans with as good a shot as anybody to bring home the hardware.
Penn State (10-13 overall, 2-8 Big Ten)
- Overall Grade: C-
- Worst-case scenario: Growing pains mount under Patrick Chambers as the Nittany Lions drop six of their last nine.
- Best-case scenario: Penn State channels its performance in past big games, sweeping Iowa, beating Nebraska and upsetting Michigan in the final game of the regular season.
- Reasonable expectation: Penn State is growing, but not into anything that can do much damage this year. Another upset mixed in would not be a shock, thanks to the heroic efforts of Tim Frazier.
Purdue (15-7 overall, 5-4 Big Ten)
- Overall Grade: B-
- Worst-case scenario: Purdue’s regression to mediocrity continues. Mackey Arena is no longer intimidating, and no one can step up and carry the team. Boilers finish 8-10 in conference.
- Best-case scenario: Robbie Hummel gets back to an All-Big Ten level of play, with Lewis Jackson running the point. The Boilermakers rattle off two Big Ten Tournament wins to take some momentum into March Madness.
- Reasonable expectation: Purdue is experienced and talented, but doesn’t have the firepower to compete at the top tier of this conference this year.
Wisconsin (18-5 overall, 7-3 Big Ten)
- Overall Grade: B
- Worst-case scenario: Jordan Taylor can’t do it all himself, and the Badgers lose both meetings against Ohio State, at Michigan State and are dropped early in the Big Ten Tournament.
- Best-case scenario: Bo Ryan gets this club back to where many expected it to be — a top three finish in the conference — and the Badgers claw their way to the Sweet Sixteen on Taylor’s back.
- Reasonable expectation: When the Badgers play their game, they’re no fun to match up against. But the horses aren’t there this year for Ryan. An NCAA Tournament team, to be sure, but not as an intimidating as last season’s.
