Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

So much has changed since the beginning of November around college basketball. Our expectations for Georgetown, Indiana and Missouri have skyrocketed while our perceptions of Pittsburgh, Memphis and the entire Pac-12 have dipped considerably. Doug McDermott has emerged as a player of the year candidate while Tu Holloway slipped from preseason All-American to a “gangsta” at the forefront of a Xavier collapse. Ben Howland’s seat is rising in temperature while any notions of Brad Stevens moving in-state to Bloomington have been extinguished.

As conference schedules get underway and teams become more and more exposed, expect to learn even more over the next two-plus months. Here are ten predictions that I believe will come to fruition by the time the nets are cut down in April:

Thomas Robinson will win national player of the year- Preseason favorite Jared Sullinger could win it, but I can’t pinpoint one area where Sullinger is superior to Robinson. The Kansas big man can face up and hit from mid-range, has an unquenchable motor, dominates down low, snatches every rebound in his vicinity, blocks shots, has an NBA-ready body and is light years ahead of Sullinger defensively. I’d draft Robinson first overall in next year’s draft and not think twice about it. Given Kansas’ erratic guard play and total lack of depth, he’s been incredibly valuable to the Jayhawks push for an eighth straight Big 12 regular season title. As long as he stays near his 18/12 averages and top-20 offensive rating, expect Robinson to edge Sullinger, Barnes, McDermott, Lamb, Denmon, Pope or any of the other candidates for the esteemed honor.

Three Pac-12 teams will dance: Cal, Arizona and Washington, none higher than a #9 seed- Cal is the most steady team in the league, can really shoot it from outside and boast a legitimate leader in Jorge Gutierrez to keep the Bears on track. Minnesota transfer Justin Cobbs (29.3 MPG, 12.4 PPG, 17-25 from three) has provided a welcomed scoring punch at the combo guard alongside Allen Crabbe. If Harper Kamp can stay on the floor to solidify a thin frontcourt, Cal should win this downtrodden league. Despite accomplishing nothing of note during non-conference play, expect Arizona to string together enough wins to finish second behind a balanced scoring attack. Sean Miller’s teams usually peak when the chips are down in February and March. We’ve seen Washington excel on neutral floors in years past. Look for the Huskies to finally put their superior talent to good use, claim the Pac-12 tournament crown and make another March push.

Murray State will receive no higher than a #5 seed regardless of record- I’d never bet on any college basketball team finishing the campaign unblemished, but Murray State has as good of a chance as any recent candidate. Not only do they play in the low-major Ohio Valley, but the league as a whole is much less competitive than in recent seasons; for example, preseason favorite Austin Peay is 3-12 and has already lost twice in conference play. Because of their lackluster strength of schedule, this is a much different situation than when Drake went deep into February with one loss in 2008 or even St. Joe’s undefeated run to the Atlantic 10 Tournament in 2004. The Racers only non-conference wins of note are Memphis, Dayton and Southern Mississippi. I expect them to lose once their 45% team three-point percentage dips down to earth, but even at 30-0 after the OVC Tournament, Murray State doesn’t deserve a seed any better than a #5 seed.

Saint Louis, not Temple or Xavier, will win the Atlantic 10- This prediction made much more sense before Wednesday when Temple played their best 40 minutes of the season in an upset win over Duke and St. Louis slipped in their A-10 opener at Dayton. Xavier may be the most talented team in the league and they still have two months to straighten their ship, but I trust Rick Majerus’ Billikens more than any other unit. St. Louis ranks 14^th in defensive efficiency, shoots it well from both inside and beyond the arc and boasts a steady, playmaking point guard in Kwamain Mitchell to team with Brian Conklin and Cody Ellis. With St. Joe’s and Dayton overachieving, the A-10 (and both the MVC and WCC) could still some bids from the lackluster soft middle of major conferences.

Frank Martin will be a national coach of the year candidate- The butt-whipping at Allen Fieldhouse was alarming, but that’s nothing new for any road visitor to Lawrence. Kansas State is playing the type of hard-nosed, gritty, defensive-oriented basketball they perfected in 2010 before slipping a bit dealing with personnel and chemistry issues for most of last season. For a team expected to be right around the bubble, Martin is soaking all he can out of a unit not nearly as talented as his previous two teams. Jamar Samuels is playing motivated basketball and Will Spradling provides an outside shooting threat to team with a defense that ranks in the top-25 in both two and three point percentage against. As long as they don’t drift into too many prolonged scoring droughts (a legit concern), Martin’s team will receive a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Miami will be the biggest Selection Sunday debate- The issue for Miami and really any ACC team that didn’t pick up any quality wins in November and December is, unless you can scalp Duke or Carolina, the opportunities to boost your resume in league play is minimal. Virginia should linger around the top-25 and Florida State is competitive on any night because of their defense, but teams like NC State, Maryland and Virginia Tech are still a year or two away. The Canes can play a card that nobody else has, however: the Reggie Johnson Card. Johnson was expected to anchor Miami’s frontcourt before injuring his knee over the summer. Since his return, Johnson has three near double-doubles in four games. With nothing to boast out of league play, Miami must finish at least 10-6 in the ACC. If they can prove they’re a much improved team with Johnson, the committee might excuse a lackluster first two months.

Butler will participate in the NIT– Butler must win the Horizon League tournament to punch their ticket. Victories over possible NCAA teams Purdue (neutral) and Stanford (road) are solid, but with bad losses to Evansville and Ball State, their non-league portfolio is not sufficient for an at-large berth. Just like last season, I expect Butler to travel to Milwaukee for the league title game. This time, the Panthers come out on top and deny the Bulldogs a chance to make another late March run. As anyone that watched Butler edge Milwaukee 54-50 at Hinkle last weekend can attest, the Panthers defend at just as high a level as the Bulldogs and, along with Cleveland State, are more than capable of toppling the Horizon League superpower. This is as flawed a Butler team as Stevens has assembled with freshmen lining his rotation and not a single double-digit scorer on the roster. Butler ranks near the bottom of the country in both three-point and free throw shooting percentage.

UNLV will be a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament- Ignore their league affiliation and UNLV’s team of transfers resembles a major conference powerhouse, evident by their blitzing of North Carolina in late November. In a move sure to make Jerry Tarkanian proud, Dave Rice has done a masterful job taking the reins from Lon Kruger and molding this team into a cohesive unit that really gets out and pushes the tempo in the open floor. Call them the poor man’s Syracuse as all nine of the Rebels rotation players can hurt you. Much like Darington Hobson’s New Mexico team two seasons ago, the Rebels will be a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament once they sprint through the MVC with only two or three losses. UNLV can boast wins over North Carolina, Illinois, California and possible WAC champ Nevada to a committee sure to appreciate their hellacious non-conference schedule.

The Big Ten will end the season with six ranked teams- Every year, we have the completely meaningless debate over which league is the best in the country. The consensus this season seems to side with a Big 10 conference that really doesn’t have any gimme win. With three of the best players in the league at their respective positions in Aaron Craft, Will Buford and Jared Sullinger, Ohio State is a #1 seed. Michigan State and Indiana are legit top-15 teams, while Michigan hasn’t dropped off with Trey Burke stepping in admirably for Darius Morris. Wisconsin can win (and lose) any game depending on their three-point accuracy and I anticipate Illinois puts it together. Purdue is a seventh legitimate candidate to finish the season in the polls. And keep an eye on Iowa out of nowhere as a tough out.

Kentucky will win the national championship- Apologies to Coach Cal haters, but this is his year. I said it in November and the first half of the season has only confirmed by belief that this is the spring Kentucky returns to glory. Not only are the Wildcats one of the top three teams in the nation right now, but they have the most room to grow from now until New Orleans. This might be the best defensive team Calipari has assembled and, if Terrence Jones ever snaps out of his funk, they’ll be unstoppable.

zhayes9 (301 Posts)

This entry was posted on Friday, January 6th, 2012 at 8:59 am by zhayes9 and is filed under rtc analysis. Tagged: feature, kansas, kentucky, thomas robinson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.