Rush The Court

RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

It’s been almost two weeks since our last Bubble Watch, so let’s get right to it…

Atlantic 10

(With an incredible six bids if the season ended today and the realistic potential for five come Selection Sunday, I figured it was time the Atlantic 10 earned their own section).

Locks: Temple.

Rhode Island (15 RPI, 73 SOS)– The Rams don’t have a bad loss on their schedule and picked up an enormous split on the Xavier/Dayton trip in late January. Their best non-conference wins against Oklahoma State and Northeastern don’t necessarily stand out, but a top-15 RPI and 19-3 overall record means it would take an epic collapse if the Rams aren’t dancing for the first time under Jim Baron. Seed range: 7-9.

Xavier (26 RPI, 19 SOS)– Xavier’s resume isn’t quite as impressive as those numbers might indicate. Their three best wins all came at home against bubble team Cincinnati and Atlantic-10 foes Dayton and Rhode Island. Emerging victorious in one of their nail-biting losses at Butler and at Wake Forest would have been enormous for their NCAA chances. A win at Florida this Saturday provides another opportunity. Seed range: 8-9.

Richmond (31 RPI, 66 SOS)– The blowout win over Temple last Saturday pushed the Spiders from bubble team to comfortably in. They picked up quality non-conference wins over Missouri, Old Dominion and Florida while a win tonight at Rhode Island would make it awfully difficult to deny them a bid. Seed range: 8-9.

Dayton (#34 RPI, #39 SOS)- The Flyers needed to beat Xavier at home and did the job. Remember, their only three out of conference losses were against top-20 teams. The St. Joe’s loss stands out as ugly but the next four games are all winnable before a clash at Temple on February 24. Seed range: 10-12.

Charlotte (#45 RPI, #151 SOS)– The 49ers still have work to do even on their perch atop the Atlantic 10 standings. They were annihilated in most of their non-conference games against NCAA teams (exception being a destruction of shorthanded Louisville) but they have picked up A-10 wins over Temple at home and by 12 at Richmond. The key stretch could be 4 of 6 at home to end the year with Xavier and Richmond in that mix. Charlotte appears to be in a pretty good position overall. Seed range: 9-10.

ACC

Locks: Duke.

Wake Forest (#16 RPI, #23 SOS)– Wake is inching closer and closer to lock status. Their computer numbers are terrific and they have enviable wins at Gonzaga and against both Richmond and Xavier in overtime. Taking care of business Saturday at home against Georgia Tech would do the trick. Seed range: 5-7.

Georgia Tech (#24 RPI, #13 SOS)– The Yellow Jackets are comfortably in the field with their five wins against the RPI top 50. But they do finish with four of seven on the road including difficult visits to Wake Forest, Maryland and Clemson. A mediocre ACC record might hurt their seed. Seed range: 5-7.

Florida State (#37 RPI, #51 SOS)– After their game tonight in Littlejohn Coliseum against Clemson, the Seminoles end with a schedule that is very friendly. Their road games are all against likely NIT teams Virginia, North Carolina and Miami. Their only RPI top-25 wins have come against Georgia Tech, though, so some resume enhancement is necessary for Florida State to feel 100% comfortable. Seed range: 7-9.

Clemson (#43 RPI, #37 SOS)– At 4-5 in the ACC, Clemson needs to start winning games or their projected seed will keep plummeting. Their only notable non-conference win came against Butler on a neutral floor and their best ACC win was at home against Maryland. They could go 3-0 in this homestand against Florida State, Miami and Virginia to ease the minds of panicking Tiger fans. Seed range: 10-11.

Maryland (#44 RPI, #32 RPI)– A win Saturday at Duke would go a long way towards an ACC regular season title and lock status for the tournament, but that’s a bit much to demand. The sweep of Florida State only slightly makes up for a lack of quality non-conference wins. Still, just getting to 10-6 in the ACC should be enough for a bid. Seed range: 8-9.

Virginia Tech (#63 RPI, #235 SOS)– Their non-conference schedule is an absolute joke and the committee strongly factors that facet of a team’s portfolio. This means Tech needs to compile more and more ACC wins. They’ve done a nice job so far and qualified for my last bracket on the heels of their 5-3 conference mark. Avoiding a slip-up at NC State tonight is vital for their hopes. Seed range: 12-13.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas.

Texas A&M (#19 RPI, #12 SOS)– The Aggies picked up two enormous wins last week ending Missouri’s home-court winning streak then edging Baylor in College Station. They now have four wins vs. the RPI top 50 (albeit none vs. the top 25) and look comfortable for an NCAA bid. They can’t afford to get complacent, though, with the next two at a Texas Tech team that needs wins and home against #1 Kansas. Seed range: 6-8.

Baylor (#28 RPI, #30 SOS)– The 4-4 mark looks lackluster for the Bears, but their Big 12 schedule has been brutal thus far. They’ll be favored in every game fro here on out with the exception of road trips to Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, and even those they’ll be a popular selection. Baylor has non-conference wins against Xavier, Arizona State and South Carolina. Seed range: 7-8.

Texas Tech (#29 RPI, #16 SOS)– If the Red Raiders finish with a record over .500 in conference play, they actually might emerge out of nowhere for a bid. The computer numbers are stellar but the quality wins seriously lack; their best are against Washington and Oklahoma State. They need a signature win and have opportunities against Baylor twice, Texas, Texas A&M and Kansas State. Seed range: Next four out.

Oklahoma State (#36 RPI, #29 SOS)– Oklahoma State needs to watch out or they’ll slip right out of my next bracket. They’ve lost three in a row but may turn it around in their next two against Oklahoma and at Iowa State. The RPI/SOS is very workable but a hellacious four-game stretch looms before the last game of the season- Baylor, at Texas, Kansas and at Texas A&M. They could be a close call come Selection Sunday. Seed range: 10-11.

Missouri (#46 RPI, #77 SOS)– The Tigers are slipping seed-wise but still remain fairly comfortably in the field of 65. The non-conference win over Illinois is looking stronger and the Tigers did beat Kansas State at home early in Big 12 competition. Winning at Baylor on Saturday would be enormous for their chances. Seed range: 8-10.

Big East

Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown.

Pittsburgh (#18 RPI, #17 SOS)– Pitt has lost four of their last five Big East games to fall out of lock status, but it would still take an epic collapse for the Panthers not to make the tournament with their nine wins over the RPI top 100. They have the biggest road win of any team in the nation at Syracuse but seem to be falling back down to earth. The next four games- West Virginia, at Marquette, Villanova, at Notre Dame- are all very losable. Seed range: 5-6.

Louisville (#43 RPI, #5 SOS)– We begin the Big East bubble mess with Louisville. Even with their 6-4 conference mark, the Cardinals didn’t qualify for Monday’s bracket because of their lack of any semblance of a quality win. They haven’t beaten one team currently projected in the field of 65 and their best wins are against South Florida, Cincinnati and Connecticut in Freedom Hall. Their next chance for a signature win comes at Syracuse on Sunday or home against Georgetown on February 23. Seed range: Last four out.

South Florida (#49 RPI, #43 SOS)– The Bulls burst into the bubble discussion with two consecutive RPI top-20 wins against Pittsburgh and at Georgetown, but fell last Sunday to Notre Dame in a nail-biter. They welcome big man Gus Gilchrist back for an enormous bubble game Saturday at Marquette. The winner has the edge as one of the last teams in next Monday’s bracket. Followed is another big bubble game at home against Cincinnati on February 16. Seed range: Last four out.

Cincinnati (#53 RPI, #20 SOS)– Cincy boasts two wins from Maui that look better and better by the day against Vanderbilt and Maryland. Still, they haven’t done anything since of note and even mixed in a horrendous loss against St. John’s. Their next three games against fellow Big East bubble teams could make or break the Bearcats chances with roadies at Connecticut and South Florida followed by a home date with Marquette. Go 2-1 and they could edge into the field. Seed range: Last four out.

Connecticut (#57 RPI, #9 SOS)– The Huskies look like a sinking ship right now. Their coach is still on his leave of absence, they struggle against inferior opponents at home and their only top-50 RPI win over Texas is looking weaker every game the Longhorns play. Two of their next three are at Syracuse and at Villanova, meaning the sandwich game at home vs. Cincinnati is an absolute 100% must. Seed range: lots of work to do.

Notre Dame (#59 RPI, #68 SOS)– The Irish needed both games against Cincinnati and USF at home and took care of business. They still have work to do in terms of earning a bid during Luke Harangody’s senior season. The bad losses to Loyola Marymount and Rutgers are hard to ignore, but the Irish have a chance with their favorable schedule down the stretch. Thursday’s visit to Seton Hall is a dangerous game. Seed range: Next four out.

Marquette (#61 RPI, #57 SOS)– Marquette’s chances could come down to whether the committee factors in their laundry list of close losses to quality opponents. Of course, the Golden Eagles could also just get to 12-6 or 11-7 in the conference and leave no doubt. It’s entirely possible with no games remaining against the four Big East locks and their toughest road date at Cincinnati. Seed range: Last four in.

Big Ten

Locks: Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin.

Ohio State (#40 RPI, #98 SOS)– The Buckeyes have only lost three games with Evan Turner in the lineup and their seed is climbing fast. Three wins against the RPI top 25 also helps greatly. The Buckeyes face Purdue and Michigan State in a four-day stretch mid-February. Split those two and they’ll be in prime position for a top-five seed. Seed range: 4-6.

Minnesota (#62 RPI, #36 SOS)– Minnesota may be at .500 in the Big 10, but they have an uphill climb to get back into the NCAA Tournament picture with just three wins vs. the RPI top 100. They will have opportunities to gather quality wins with Wisconsin and Purdue visiting the Barn later in February. The Sunday clash at Northwestern is an elimination game of sorts. Seed range: lots of work to do.

Illinois (#65 RPI, #82 SOS)– There won’t be a bigger bubble win this week than Illinois winning in the Kohl Center. They now boast wins over Vanderbilt, Clemson (road), Michigan State and Wisconsin (road). The RPI is lacking tremendously and there’s not an easy win left on the schedule, but the Illini certainly put destiny in their own hands last night. Seed range: 10-11.

Northwestern (#67 RPI, #79 SOS)– The Wildcats have the schedule to get to 11-7 in the Big 10. The game at Wisconsin will be tough, but other than that they’ll be favored in every single contest, even the road games at Iowa, Indiana and Penn State. They have a signature win over Purdue to fall back on, but their only non-conference win of note came against Notre Dame on a neutral floor. 10-8 would mean wins are imperative in the Big 10 tournament. Seed range: lots of work to do.

Pac-10

California (#25 RPI, #1 SOS)– The SOS is tremendous, but the Bears don’t have a win over the RPI top 50 and won’t finish with one unless they can beat Washington Thursday and the Huskies keep playing well. Cal is truly in a prime position to win the Pac-10 regular season title if they can win that game. Their only road dates remaining are at Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford. They can’t afford to slip up much more if they want to guarantee themselves an at-large berth. Seed range: 9-11.

Washington (#52 RPI, #47 SOS)- The win over Texas A&M and the annihilation of Cal looks stronger, and the Huskies’ RPI is certainly climbing, but they’re just 6-5 in a depressing conference and don’t have a road win yet this season. The opportunity this Thursday at Cal is a huge one. Five of Washington’s last seven on the road and they’ll need to win a large majority to earn serious at-large consideration. Seed range: Next four out.

SEC

Locks: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

Mississippi (#39 RPI, #60 SOS)– The Rebels seed has been slowly dropping for weeks now. The loss at home to Arkansas was bad, and if not for a 22-point comeback against Alabama last Saturday, Ole Miss may have found their seed evaporated today. The non-conference win over Kansas State looms large and they did knock off UTEP back in mid-December. At just 1-4 vs. the RPI top 50, it would be beneficial if the Rebels went 2-1 in their next three at Mississippi State and home vs. Vanderbilt and Florida. Seed range: 10-11.

Florida (#55 RPI, #89 SOS)– The Gators have won 5 of 6 in SEC play to creep further and further into the bracket. The game tonight at South Carolina is crucial for both team’s chances then the opportunity is there on Saturday for Florida to steal a top-50 RPI win against Xavier. Four of Florida’s last five games are against the four SEC teams already listed in what will determine their fate. Seed range: 10-11.

South Carolina (#71 RPI, #27 SOS)– Five non-conference losses means the Gamecocks need to win SEC games and quickly. The signature win over Kentucky looms large, but they really need to beat Florida at home tonight if they want to keep their name in the bubble hat at this point in the season. Seed range: lots of work to do.

Mississippi State (#72 RPI, #150 SOS)– The Bulldogs have lost four of five in SEC play and are reeling at this point. Three straight home games should help their cause, though, including two against Ole Miss and Kentucky. Beating the Rebels is vital and a win over Kentucky could push them back into the field. Two bad losses linger against Rider and Western Kentucky. Seed range: Next four out.

Other

Locks: New Mexico, Butler, Northern Iowa, BYU, Gonzaga.

UAB (#30 RPI, #102 SOS)– The Blazers are Conference USA’s lone hope for an at-large berth with Tulsa, Memphis and UTEP lacking any non-conference victories of note. UAB knocked off Butler and Cincinnati at home and their RPI remains stellar. They’ve slipped a bit in conference play losing two straight to UTEP and Memphis, but the schedule is favorable the rest of the way. Seed range: 9-10.

UNLV (#32 RPI, #99 SOS)– UNLV made a firm statement to the committee they deserve to be in the field with their thrashing of BYU on Saturday. The Rebels have an important in-conference win at New Mexico where nobody wins and beat Louisville back in December. UNLV is also 8-3 against the RPI top 100. Seed range: 6-7.

Siena (#33 RPI, #124 SOS)– The Saints should be an interesting case come Selection Sunday if they’re upset in the MAAC Tournament. I suspect their reputation and RPI will be enough to earn a bid, but after blowing their chances for quality wins out-of-conference, they shouldn’t take any chances. The MAAC weighs down their SOS and the Saints haven’t beaten anyone in the RPI top 50. Seed range: 10-11.

Old Dominion (#35 RPI, #70 SOS)– The Monarchs would probably be the last team out of the field if the season ended today. Carrying them is a stellar RPI and non-conference wins over Georgetown and a total butt-whooping of Charlotte. ODU hasn’t defeated Northeastern, George Mason or VCU in CAA play, though, and are just 2-3 vs. the RPI top 50. Seed range: Last four out.

San Diego State (#38 RPI, #54 SOS)– Steve Fisher’s team actually isn’t near the field at this point, yet an improved MWC is carrying their computer numbers. They did beat New Mexico in early January, but the Aztecs just haven’t accomplished enough for at-large consideration unless they win out the rest of the regular season. They’ll likely have to win the MWC Tournament. Seed range: Lots of work to do.

Saint Mary’s (#44 RPI, #141 SOS)– Even with a three-game sweep at the hands of Gonzaga, the Gaels probably won’t be denied entry into the tournament at 26-5 overall and a decent RPI. Winning at the Kennel on Thursday, though, would put them solidly into the field. Seed range: 9-11.

Cornell (#47 RPI, #199 SOS)- It’s fairly straightforward for the Big Red: win the Ivy regular season title and they’re in. Finish second to Princeton or Harvard and it’ll be hello NIT. Seed range: 9-10.

Utah State (#48 RPI, #104 SOS)– It’s probably too late for the Aggies to make an at-large push. They have losses against Utah, Long Beach State, St. Mary’s at home and Louisiana Tech. I’d put my money on them winning the WAC title and earning a bid that way. Seed range: lots of work to do.

Wichita State (#50 RPI, #142 SOS)– The Shockers now stand just 9-5 in a weak MVC with their stunning loss at previously winless Evansville last night. That may have been the dagger in terms of at-large consideration with only two wins vs. the RPI top 50. Seed range: lots of work to do.

William & Mary (#51 RPI, #84 SOS)– At 8-5 in the CAA, it’ll be tough even with non-conference wins at Wake Forest, at Maryland and vs. Richmond. Looks like it may be CAA Tournament champions or NIT for the Tribe. Seed range: lots of work to do.

Northeastern (#54 RPI, #62 SOS)– The Huskies struggled mightily in non-conference play (albeit against a strong batch of teams) and basically need to win out with a loss in the CAA Tournament final to earn consideration for an at-large bid. Pulling out close games against Siena, Rhode Island and Saint Mary’s would loom large now. Seed range: lots of work to do.