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Three Key Takeaways.

Seth Tuttle and The Panthers May Not Look Like A Top-20 Basketball Team, But They Are (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall) )

1. Seth Tuttle, Legit. Northern Iowa’s senior big man is not a household name among non-diehard college basketball fans although he dominated against Wichita State in his first big regular season close-up. But in his first NCAA Tournament game, he put on a show for a national television audience, displaying his versatile and disruptive game. Wanna see the 6’8” center run the offense out of the high post? Look no further than his beautiful first-half dime to Jeremy Morgan (who missed the layup). Wanna see his traditional big man moves? He sealed off the longer and more athletic Larry Nance, Jr., received the lob pass and put in an easy dunk. Worried that at just 6’8” he might not be able to do that against a bigger defender? Just watch him step out to the three-point line and drill one from deep. Defensively, he’s physical, disciplined and smart, anticipating the opponent’s plays. In short, he may not be as used to the spotlight as some of the guys in major conferences, but he’s as good of a college basketball player as I’ve seen this year.
2. Physical, Disciplined, Experienced. You watch Northern Iowa go through the layup line in the pregame and you’re sort of unimpressed. A couple lanky and unexplosive guys in the 6’8” to 6’9” range, average athleticism, small guards. And then the ball is tipped; they run their offense through Tuttle and little point guard Wes Washpun; they clamp down on defense; they pound away on the glass; they exploit defenses to find open shooters. And they’re incredibly well-coached by head coach Ben Jacobson. What does the opponent want to do? Okay, let’s not let them do that. Today it was getting the ball out of Josh Adams’ hands (he scored four points on 2-of-9 shooting) — forcing Larry Nance to either shoot jumpers or go left — and make everybody else beat them. They may not be members of the all-airport team, but these guys can beat a lot of teams in this field. And they certainly won’t beat themselves.
3. Wyoming Second-Half Life. At the halfway mark, Northern Iowa was up 11 and the Cowboys were fortuntate to be that close. The Panthers came out of the locker room and put together a quick 8-0 run and the next thing you know they were up 21 points and the game was over. Wyoming had shown no life. Larry Nance Jr. had two field goal attempts, two turnovers, two fouls and one point. And then, over the course of four minutes, Nance scored 13 straight points including a couple threes and a couple dunks and, following a Charles Hankerson three, the Cowboys were back within seven. The comeback stalled out, but at the very least, the Cowboys got a chance for a 10-minute second half stretch to show the nation why they were a worthy addition to the Tournament field.

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Looking for something to tide you over before Duke-Virginia? Look no further than the Missouri Valley, where Northern Iowa hosts Wichita State in arguably the biggest O26 clash to date. Not only will it be the first matchup between ranked MVC teams since 1982, but the outcome could go a long way in determining the eventual league champion. Perhaps more importantly, each team will have an opportunity to notch a rare, in-conference resume booster just six weeks ahead of Selection Sunday. Oh, and did I mention that the Shockers’ 27-game conference winning streak hangs in the balance? With lots at stake and both teams projected as single-digit seeds in the NCAA Tournament, this isn’t your average high-major undercard – it’s a heavyweight bout all on its own. Let’s take a look at why each team can win.

Why Northern Iowa Wins…

Do Seth Tuttle and the Panthers have what it takes to beat Wichita State? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

• Home court advantage. The Panthers haven’t lost at home in almost a full calendar year, today in search of their 13th-straight victory in the McLeod Center. And while their last defeat in Cedar Falls did come at the hands of the Shockers – a nine point loss last February 8th – this will be the first time since the 2013 MVC title game that Wichita State actually enters a league contest as underdog; KenPom gives Northern Iowa the slight advantage (54%) this afternoon. Gregg Marshall’s bunch has exhibited steely nerves on the road plenty of times before, but keeping it together in front of a crowd that’s been sold out for a month and a half is easier said than done.
• Defense. This may be oversimplifying things, but if Northern Iowa plays the level of defense it has for much of this season, it will be in great shape to win. The Panthers – currently boasting the 17th most efficient defense in college basketball – have allowed just five teams to score over one point per possession, playing a stifling brand of pack-line defense (with some other principles mixed in) that’s been incredibly difficult to penetrate in 2014-15. With Cleanthony Early no longer in the lineup, Wichita State might not have an athletic wing-type capable of attacking the lane and opening looks near the basket the way it did in 2013-14, especially if the Panthers stymy them in transition. Likewise, senior forward Seth Tuttle – in addition to his offensive prowess (15.1 PPG) – has been virtually immovable on the block this season, suffocating opposing big men and cleaning up the defensive glass (20.9% DReb). If Fred VanVleet can’t push the ball and Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton don’t hit outside shots, it might be a long afternoon for the Shockers.

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Sometimes a team, if it has enough overall talent and a few breaks, can win a game in which its major flaws are exposed by an opponent. That’s exactly what happened in VCU’s thrilling double-overtime 93-87 win over an excellent Northern Iowa team on Saturday night in Richmond. Coming in, VCU’s detractors were wondering how the team dubbed Shaka Smart’s best since he took over the Rams program in 2009 could be a mere 5-3 and out of the national rankings already. The answer(s) to that question surfaced early and often against the Panthers; luckily the Rams’, buoyed by an always boisterous home crowd, overcame their nagging issues on the defensive end to win.

Shaka Smart’s Rams got a much-needed resume-builder, but defensive issues remain (vcuramnation.com)

VCU’s HAVOC defense is now a nationwide buzzword, and their pressing style can be utterly infuriating for opponents. But what has caused this Rams team to struggle in the non-conference schedule is the fact that once that press is broken or has been rendered impossible to set up, they’re a subpar half-court defensive team. Coming into the Northern Iowa matchup, the Rams were allowing opponents to shoot nearly 41% from three-point range. For a team that loves to chuck from long-range themselves, that can negate any good three-point shooting night they have. They’re not a whole lot better inside the arc, either, mostly because they take chances with their guard-heavy lineup and don’t have any true rim-protectors on the roster.

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Patrick Marshall of White & Blue Review is the RTC correspondent for the Missouri Valley Conference. You can find him on Twitter at @wildjays.

Top Storylines

• MVC Untouched — The Missouri Valley Conference has so far survived the first few rounds of changes among the top 15 conferences in Division I basketball (the Ivy being the other one). While every major conference, and some others even further down have been expanding or shifting, the MVC has walked away unscathed and still completely intact. That doesn’t mean there have not been rumors about teams leaving the conference at some point. The latest such mention was late this summer whenthere was a report that Evansville was on the verge of heading to the Horizon League. While some of that was theory based on some relatively weak facts, there are still cards likely to be played on that matter at some point. The question is when it will happen and who will be the first to start the falling dominoes within the league. It may turn out to be a school like Evansville that is looking to get out of the shadow of the other bigger players in the Valley.
• Can Doug McDermott have an even better season? — Creighton fans are salivating to see what McDermott can do to follow up last season, when he earned first-team All-America honors, averaged almost 23 points a game, and shot an amazing percentage behind the arc while frustrating opponents down low.  The encore may not be so much about increasing his scoring like he did from his freshman to sophomore year, but about how far he can lead the Bluejays come March. McDermott spent the summer at the Amare Stoudamire and LeBron James skills camps, but he also took some time off after almost playing two years without a break including a stint with the Team USA U-19 squad.  With so many expectations on his shoulders, it will be interesting to see if he continues to take everything in stride or listen to the whispers of the NBA and focuses on those areas of his game most likely to take him to the next level.  For the MVC as a whole, the fans probably hope for both. 

Doug McDermott Gives The MVC Something It Hasn’t Had In Many Years: A Bona Fide National POY Candidate.

• Big Men Instead of Guards—For many years, the Valley has been known as a guard’s league with not as many big-bodied frontcourt players leading the way.  Things have changed at least for the teams at the top. Along with McDermott, the Bluejays boast big man Gregory Echenique, who while topping over 300 pounds when he came to Creighton over three seasons ago, is now down to 260 and very agile. Jackie Carmichael from Illinois State impressed many at the camps he attended this summer after coming up big at the end of the season for the Redbirds. Colt Ryan, though he could be considered a guard, is more of a forward, but he can score in bunches for Evansville. Drake returns center Seth Van Deest from a shoulder injury that kept him out all season. Carl Hall will likely try to hold things down with Wichita State bringing in a bunch of new players.  Then you have Seth Tuttle from Northern Iowa who was the MVC Freshman of the Year last season. When you look at the make-up of the MVC going into this season, it is easily dominated by talented frontcourt players. 
• Deja vu Times Two—Three years ago, Greg McDermott returned to the conference that originally made him a hot commodity and has experienced success by taking Creighton back to the NCAA Tournament.  This time Southern Illinois hopes Barry Hinson has the same success coming back to the conference that he had marginal success with while at Missouri State.  It is rare that a coach returns to the same conference to coach another school, but the MVC must be a special place where two former coaches do so to coach different teams in a short period of time. Unlike McDermott who came to Creighton with a cupboard somewhat full, Hinson has a little more work to do after the struggles SIU has had for the past four seasons.

Reader’s Take I

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Creighton (27-4, 15-3)
2. Northern Iowa (24-7, 14-4)
3. Illinois State (24-7, 13-5)
4. Wichita State (23-8, 12-6)
5. Drake (15-15, 9-9)
6. Missouri State (15-16, 7-11)
7. Indiana State (15-15, 6-12)
8. Evansville (15-16, 6-12)
9. Bradley (13-18, 5-13)
10. Southern Illinois (11-20, 3-15)

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