Kevin Doyle is an RTC contributor.

Introduction

The non-conference is often times a good barometer for determining how strong a team will be and how they will perform within their respective conferences during league play. There are times, of course, when a team will challenge themselves by scheduling many BCS opponents and tough mid-majors, and compile a poor OOC record. Despite the lackluster record, they still may be a quality team. In some instances, however, it simply takes teams longer to gel and come together—conference play is when they finally peak. Likewise, there are always a handful of squads that will play nothing but cupcakes with extra frosting on the top, and run up many wins throughout the first half of the year, only to flounder during conference play. After witnessing teams play several games against conference opponents, let’s take a look at who may be exceeding expectations based on a struggling OOC record, and who has fallen flat on their faces after soaring through the OOC:

Surprising

• Binghamton (6-10, 3-0)—Although they have beaten three of the weaker teams in the America East, the Bearcats are out to a nice 3-0 start nevertheless and have one of the best pure scorers in the league in Greer Wright. If Binghamton can knock off Vermont and Maine—two of the top teams—then they will be taken as a serious threa
• Hofstra (11-5, 5-0)—Any team with Charles Jenkins has a fighter’s chance. Jenkins has the Pride as the last unbeaten team in the CAA, but a crucial game looms with ODU this weekend.
• Wagner (8-8, 4-1)—Don’t bet against the Hurley family. Dan and Bobby Hurley are both in their first year with the program, and have already brought in some great recruits and wins to go along with it.
• Holy Cross (3-13, 2-0)—Gone are the days where the Crusaders would breeze through the Patriot League en route to the NCAA Tournament. Now, Milan Brown has the daunting task of building Holy Cross back into the mid-major power they once were. After a disastrous non-conference, HC has won their first two league games.

Falling

• Cleveland State (15-3, 4-2)—The Vikings look to be a notch below the upper tier teams of the league. After winning their first 12 games, Cleveland State had a rough weekend this past losing to Butler and Valpo.
• Loyola Chicago (10-8, 1-6)—Similar to Cleveland State, Loyola Chicago looked like they could be a force in the Horizon League, but have lost all their games to the top five teams in the Horizon. They began the year 7-0, and their first loss was only by two points to Butler
• Northern Iowa (12-6, 3-3)—After defeating New Mexico to win the Las Vegas Classic, UNI looked like they would challenge Wichita State and Missouri State in the Missouri Valley. They are just 3-3 in their last six games, with the most disappointing loss coming in a lackluster effort against Indiana State where they lost 70-45
• San Jose State (9-7, 1-4)—Adrian Oliver, a transfer from Washington, may be the best player in the WAC, but his Spartans have not been able to follow suit. San Jose State went 8-3 in the non-conference, but have gone onto lose four of their last five games.

Granted, conference play is still very young, and no team has even gone through the first go-around of games against their counterparts, so there still is ample time for many things to happen. With that being said, the preceding 10 teams certainly did stick out when analyzing their play in the non-conference and comparing it to their performance in their league.

The Other 26 Rankings

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Ray Floriani of NBE Basketball Report and College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the NEC and MAAC.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Quinnipiac (15-3)
2. Long Island University (13-5)
3. Robert Morris (13-5)
4. Central Connecticut State (11-7)
5. St. Francis (NY) (11-7)
6. St. Francis (PA) (9-9)
7. Wagner (9-9)
8. Mount St. Mary’s (7-11)
9. Fairleigh Dickinson (7-11)
10. Monmouth (6-12)
11. Sacred Heart (4-14)
12. Bryant (3-15)

All Conference Team

• Ricky Cadell (G) – St. Francis (NY)
• James Johnson (G) – Quinnipiac
• Justin Rutty (C) – Quinnipiac
• Mike Scott (G) – Fairleigh Dickinson
• Karon Abraham (G) – Robert Morris

Sixth Man

• Will Felder (F) – St. Francis (PA)

Impact Newcomer

• Tevin Baskin (F) – Quinnipiac

Karon Abraham and the Colonials nearly upset Villanova in March, but how does Robert Morris stack up this year? (northjersey.com)

What You Need To Know

• The NEC is a 12-team conference. Bryant plays a full conference slate but is two years away from eligibility for the conference crown. The top eight teams in the conference qualify for the postseason tournament. In the tournament, each individual game is contested at the home court of the higher seed.
• In the past, the conference tried to move the tournament to a neutral site.  Another format saw opening rounds at the higher seed’s home with the ‘final four’ at one school. Following those experiments. the conference decided several years back to revert to the original format.
• For one, it gives an almost certainty of solid attendance and better media coverage (even if it is only local) through the playoffs. More importantly, special meaning is given to the regular season right up until the final day. No going through the motions on the final night on a long road trip. Teams are playing not just to qualify, but also to put themselves in a position to host as many games as possible. Given the nature of home court edge in the college game, that is a major factor.
• As is the case in any mid-major conference, a school will build for a contending run of a year or two, then slowly slip back as they reload. In the NEC, it seems as though Robert Morris and Mount St. Mary’s were battling it out for honors for the past decade. Robert Morris will slip a bit but still is a team to watch. “The Mount” will most likely fall back, regroup and be the one in that ‘rebuilding’ cycle.
• Players come and go, and there is quite a turnover on the sidelines. Four new mentors are on board. Glenn Briaca, a former assistant, takes over at St. Francis (NY). Danny Hurley is on board at Wagner. Mike Rice exited Moon Township and headed to Rutgers. Former assistant Andrew Toole takes over at Robert Morris. Finally, Robert Burke is on board at Mount St. Mary’s. Technicalities aside, there is a fifth ’new’ coach, Greg Vetrone, who spent last season as an interim at Fairleigh Dickinson and is now the full time head coach.

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