1. Iowa dropped its Sunday match-up with Northwestern in overtime, bringing its record in Big Ten conference games decided by single digits to 9-20 over the past two seasons. The Hawkeyes are falling into their annual February funk – they went 3-4 last February, and it nearly cost them an NCAA Tournament berth. They don’t have many chances to grab big wins over the four weeks of the season. If anything, Iowa will face plenty of opponents looking to play spoiler, including Rutgers, Nebraska, Penn State and Northwestern. One loss to any of those teams, no matter if the Hawkeyes can clean up Illinois and Indiana, could be the final nail in the coffin for their NCAA dreams.
2. Northwestern obviously won’t be making the NCAA Tournament this year, but there is plenty of reason to be positive following the Wildcats’ win over Iowa. Chris Collins young team fought through six single-digit losses in January before losing its three previous games this month by double-digits. It was apparent that those close losses had a major effect on the young team’s psyche, but they may have turned a corner on Sunday. The Wildcats bench players played a huge role in the win, with Gavin Skelly menacing Aaron White and Dave Sobolewski sinking two crucial free throws in overtime. The Wildcats needed the win to give it a boost heading into the final four weeks of the season and beyond, and they got a ugly, yet massive one.
3. Illinois endured a drubbing via the hands of #5 Wisconsin on Sunday but there are quite a few positives one could take from the game. Malcolm Hill continued his hot streak even with Rayvonte Rice back in the lineup, shooting 55.5 percent from the field and pouring in 15 points. Illini faithful should have two more years to watch Hill blossom into an elite talent, writes Jim Vainisi of The Champaign Room. According to Vainisi, Hill is a lock for Third Team All-Big Ten, but if he continues his torrid pace, he could find himself as high as second team.
4. Penn State dropped a heartbreaker to Maryland at home on Saturday, and head coach Pat Chambers lost his mind (with good reason) in regards to an offensive foul call that very likely cost the Nittany Lions their fourth Big Ten win. Chambers’ outburst is almost certainly going to warrant a fine from the Big Ten, but standing up for his players undoubtedly his its benefits. Penn State’s recent history suggests that they’re perpetually mediocre, but they are improving. The Nittany Lions final stretch is absolutely brutal with match-ups against Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State and Minnesota, but even one upset win over any of those teams (coupled with a win over Northwestern) would put them in a good position heading into next season.
5. Frank Kaminsky bolstered his already strong candidacy for Naismith Player of the Year with another double-double in Sunday’s win over Illinois, pouring in 23 points and grabbing 11 rebounds. Kaminsky leads KenPom’s player of the year ratings, and has undoubtedly cemented himself as the Badger’s most important player. Their only Big Ten loss came in his absence against Rutgers. Wisconsin hasn’t skipped a beat with the loss of Traevon Jackson, and they could probably withstand another injury to one of their starters. But without Kaminsky, they have proven that their prone to struggle. With them, though, they’re a serious national title contender.

The weekend before Valentine’s Day in the Big Ten was hardly easy on the eyes. Only five teams were able to crack the the 1.00 points per possession mark, and 10 of the 14 league teams had double-figure turnovers. As an example, Nebraska only managed 13 first half points en route to a 29.4 percent shooting performance in its ugly loss to Penn State. Maryland found itself down by a score of 23-2 to Iowa before finally waking up to make the score a little more respectable (71-55). All in all, it wasn’t a good weekend if you were looking for aesthetically pleasing hoops. As always, though, there were a few highlights and solid performances, so here are some of the best.

D’Angelo Russell and his freshmen cohorts lead Ohio State’s efforts in their win Sunday over Rutgers. (Kyle Robertson, Columbus Dispatch)

• Player of the Weekend: D’Angelo Russell continues to strengthen his candidacies for both Big Ten Player of the Year and National Player of the Year, notching Ohio State’s first triple-double since Evan Turner recorded one in 2010. We can probably just go ahead and make it a post rule that if someone earns a triple-double and his team wins, he will end up with the Player of the Weekend award. Russell didn’t make the handful of spectacular plays that he’s become known for in this game, but he continued to just put up numbers in an efficient way. He scored a ‘quiet’ 23 points, including 17 in the first half on only 13 attempts. He also had six rebounds and seven assists by halftime, making it almost a forgone conclusion that the triple-double was imminent. Granted, all of this production came against Rutgers, but a Player of the Year race that once looked like an easy win for Frank Kaminsky has now become much more competitive. The March 8 tilt between the two stars in Columbus might ultimately decide the award.
• Super Sub of the Weekend: Ohio State freshmen accounted for 61 of the Buckeyes’ 79 points on Sunday night, and Keita Bates-Diop enjoyed his most productive game of the season. Stepping in because Marc Loving was still suspended, Bates-Diop boosted his confidence by hitting two threes early in the first half. From there, he managed to either tie or post career-bests in all five major statistical categories. He tied a career-high in points (19) and assists (three), and set career-highs with his nine rebounds, two steals and three blocks. Not bad for 19 minutes of action. The Buckeyes are getting great contributions from their freshmen right now, and Thad Matta’s first-year players may decide how far this team goes.

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1. It’s now the time of the season when the frantic checking of various bracketology updates becomes a daily must for college hoops junkies. It also marks the return of ESPN’s bubble watch column. In this week’s version, there are eight Big Ten teams with a reasonable chance to make it into the field of 68. This is obviously a fluid situation, but right now Wisconsin is the league’s only true lock. It will be worth watching to see if the conference can match last season’s six bids in what has to be considered a down season in terms of overall quality.
2. There are only 14 American Indian college basketball players at the Division I level this season, but one of that group has been thrust into the spotlight by playing for a Wisconsin team that has Final Four aspirations. Given the brighter stage that he finds himself on, Bronson Koenig has used the opportunity to act as an inspiration for others like him. He’s attempted to learn more about his background as he’s gotten older, and he rails against sports nicknames (like the Redskins) that he feels degrade his people. Koenig had another outstanding game against Indiana on Tuesday night, and seeing the sophomore get an opportunity both on the floor and to become a powerful off-court spokesman might go a long way toward ending some of the more foolish nicknames in sports.
3. Indiana was without the services of freshman James Blackmon Jr. last night, as the wing was sidelined with an ankle injury that he suffered in Saturday’s win over Rutgers. It may not have mattered all that much, though, as Wisconsin scored seemingly at will on its way to a lopsided 92-78 home victory. The Hoosiers now will take on Michigan on Sunday, and it is unknown whether Blackmon will be available for the key upcoming game against the Wolverines. Indiana has been a surprise team through the first half of Big Ten play, but Tom Crean will need the services of his star rookie in order to push on through to an unexpected NCAA Tournament berth.
4. Penn State is now 2-7 in conference play, and one of the major reasons for that disappointing record has been an over-reliance on DJ Newbill on the offensive end. Newbill is being asked to make something out of nothing on a good number of the Nittany Lions’ possessions, which often leads to others standing around and essentially getting in the way. The lack of a true point guard on the team has hurt considerably, and despite returning most of their key contributors from last season, they’ve clearly regressed. Their assist rate sits at a paltry 42.3 percent, which is a byproduct of not having a serviceable distributor to make things happen. Newbill leads the team in assists and scoring, and Shep Garner plays shooting guard. This also explains some of the poor shot selection and late-game turnovers that have contributed to several of their close losses.
5. Chemistry was questioned at Maryland after the Terrapins lost five players from last season’s team that underachieved in their final ACC season. This year’s edition has blended newcomers and veterans much better than in the past, and graduate transfer Richaud Pack has been a key component to that improvement. The senior has been a valuable presence in the Maryland locker room even as he’s seen his minutes cut back lately. The guard can do a little bit of everything, and he will be a needed to fill whatever role the Terps ask of him as they hit the home stretch.

Now that this Big Ten season is at its midpoint, it gives us a chance to gauge teams’ performances to date and analyze what’s to come. Besides a surprising second half hiccup in New Jersey, Wisconsin has been the dominant team in the league everyone expected. Ohio State, Indiana, and (surprisingly) Maryland are the consensus contenders for second place, and each could make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament if conditions are right. Nebraska, Penn State and Northwestern have had disappointing seasons. The rest of the league is in a slog to find an address on the right side of the bubble. But given uneven schedules, comparing teams by their record in conference play alone may hide the actual favorability of their schedules. Because of this — and the overall relative parity throughout the league — a good number of people in the media have been using “true” standings. This approach ranks teams by penalizing them for a home loss and rewarding them for a road win. Below, I’ve illustrated the true Big Ten standings and attached each team’s upcoming schedule and their predicted finish according to KenPom. By looking at the table, we can make some assumptions about what the second half of the Big Ten season has in store for us.

Here are my three main takeaways from the table above:

• Wisconsin should cruise to an outright regular season title. While I’ve previously commented on the overall parity of the league, I’m really talking about every team except for the Badgers. Wisconsin has been dominant — both nationally and within the Big Ten. Its sole loss to Rutgers was flukish given that it came while Frank Kaminsky and Traevon Jackson were sidelined (Jackson for the second half). Looking forward, it’s unlikely that another team will enter the Kohl Center this season and leave with a win, and three of their five remaining road games come against struggling teams like Nebraska, Penn State and Minnesota. With a two-game lead already in hand, the Badgers are headed to a regular season title and a possible #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

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Two things that stuck out from a busy seven-game weekend in the B1G both involved Iowa. Fran McCaffery’s squad reentered last week’s Top 25 only to drop two games and potentially lose Aaron White to a shoulder stinger. Luckily, the team does not play again until Saturday in a rematch against Wisconsin. But the star senior may miss some time, becoming the fourth key upperclassmen to get injured once conference play has started. They may have lost to Purdue on Saturday anyway, but with White only playing seven minutes, things were made a bit more difficult for the Hawkeyes to steal a game in West Lafayette. Because of this result and that Nebraska beat Michigan State, there are now four teams tied for sixth place with identical 4-3 records and eight teams sit only two games behind first-place Wisconsin. While the league is down from the last couple years, there is still a great deal of parity within its midsection. Things have gotten even more equal with the injuries, making the last six weeks of conference play that much more interesting.

D’Angelo Russell continues notched a double-double on Sunday as Ohio State beat Indiana. (Kyle Robertson, Columbus Dispatch)

Player of the Weekend: D’Angelo Russell had just an all-around outstanding week, but Sunday was special in the fact that it didn’t seem so special. There was no dynamic outside shooting like the first half of the Minnesota game, nor were there any highlight reel no-look passes.Instead the freshman has become so good that he can quietly put up a line that includes 22 points and ten assists against a ranked team without it being much of a surprise anymore. He was able to get to the basket at will, he continued to be really proficient at helping the team on the boards (six rebounds), and he even chipped in with two steals. It also appeared that with the emergence of fellow first-year player Jae’Sean Tate, Thad Matta has decided that in order for this Buckeye unit to advance deep into March, he needs the freshmen more than his quintet of seniors who have failed to be consistent. With a 25.8 PPG average in his last four games, Russell has shown that he’s peaking at the just the right time.

Super Sub of the Weekend: Basil Smotherman had gotten lost in the rotation at Purdue, with Vince Edwards taking the majority of the minutes at the power forward slot. After starting 16 games as a freshman last season, Smotherman had only averaged a paltry 6.2 MPG in Big Ten games prior to Saturday’s matchup against Iowa. This changed as he notched an extremely productive 25 minutes Saturday. He scored a season-high 13 points on 5-for-6 shooting. He also added six rebounds, two of which came in the last minute of the game on the defensive backboards with Iowa attempting a furious comeback. Purdue has one of the deepest rosters in the whole league, and if they could ever get everyone playing well at the same time and contributing in different ways, this could still be a NCAA Tournament team.

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As you well know, the Big Ten starts off conference play with four games today. While some of the luster has been lost due to several teams’ non-conference struggles, that doesn’t mean that things won’t be entertaining with so many teams relatively close to each other in talent level. Can disappointing teams like Michigan and Purdue turn things around? Will Wisconsin dominate as much as everyone seems to think? Can Penn State keep winning? Some of these questions and more will be answered over the next two and a half months. With that in mind, here’s a look at five key dates during conference play that will be appointment viewing if you’re a true B1G fan.

Dez Wells and Maryland vs. Michigan State in College Park highlights a slew of good games on January 17 .(Charlie DeBoyace/The Diamondback)

January 17 (five games)

• Rutgers-Minnesota 12:00 EST (BTN)
• Purdue-Penn State 1:0o (ESPNU)
• Ohio State-Iowa 2:00 (ESPN)
• Michigan State-Maryland 4:00 (CBS)
• Northwestern-Michigan 8:15 (BTN)

You may be able to skip the opener at Minnesota, but the meat of this five-game Saturday slate is right in the middle. Iowa and Ohio State split their games last season, which each team winning on the other’s home floor. Both teams once again have legitimate NCAA hopes, but this one will be important for setting the tone early in conference play. After today’s season opener in East Lansing, Maryland and Michigan State will run it back just 17 days later. The Terps are known for bringing a raucous atmosphere to the Xfinity Center — how will Michigan State handle the chaos in playing there for the first time as a league opponent? Read the rest of this entry »

Last Sunday, Penn State got its best win of the season when it soundly defeated a talented George Washington team at the Bryce Jordan Center. The victory pushed the Nittany Lions’ record to 10-1, which is tied for best in the Big Ten — the lone loss a double-overtime bout with Charlotte. While the number of wins is impressive, a deeper look into the record reveals the absence of any other resume-enhancing wins. Even last weekend’s win against the Colonials, while no easy task, represents a victory over a team that hovers around the top 50 in both the KenPom and Sagarin ratings. Also concerning is the fact that Penn State has not exactly been blowing out its inferior opponents (they won by fewer than five points against Virginia Tech, Marshall, and Duquesne, but they still won). This presents something of a paradox between their on-court performance and their record, leaving Big Ten fans to guess how good Penn State really is. In this post, I’ll explore both sides of whether Pat Chambers’ squad is really a contender or pretender as he pushes forward toward what could possibly be his first NCAA Tournament bid as the head coach.

Shep Garner has been able to emerge as a secondary scorer for Penn State in his freshman year (Mark Selders/GoPSUSports.com).

• Penn State is a pretender. Look no further than the Sagarin ratings to show the true discrepancy between the Nittany Lions’ record and performance. Specifically note the Elo rating component, which is a formula that solely considers wins, losses and who they’re against, and compare it with the Golden Mean and Pure Points ratings, two metrics that take into account point differential. Based on the Elo rating, Penn State is ranked 49th in the country; his Golden Mean and Pure Points ratings list the Nittany Lions at 128th and 119th, respectively. That’s an approximate gap of 70-80 teams, with the difference accounting for actual on-court performance. KenPom makes a similar case in his ratings, as he ranks the team 89th but notes that it is among the top 40 in luck, a metric that measures how much a team’s record has been above its expected play on the court. So if you’re looking at these metrics alone, it’s undeniable that the 10-1 record is somewhat misleading.

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There have been 142 non-conference games involving Big Ten teams thus far, and yet it can be reasonably argued that we really don’t know much more than we did before the games tipped off on November 14. What we do know is that Wisconsin is still the clear-cut favorite and Rutgers will probably struggle to stay out of the league basement. That means that the other 12 teams are still clustered together into a large pack. Some have bigger wins than others; some have better offenses than others; while some have a marquee player who can get hot and carry them for a while. This exercise is meant to rank those other teams based on a number of different categories to see which is performing as the best and worst of the bunch right now . I’m no math major, so I simply took a look at twelve key categories and ranked each team accordingly. Some are subjective, some are objective, and it’s by no means perfect. But the categories on which I ranked each team are as follows:

Denzel Valentine is leading an efficient Michigan State offense in scoring so far. (Getty)

• Best Win
• Worst Loss
• Point Differential in home games against teams ranked #150 or above
• Eye Test
• Schedule Strength
• Best Player
• Offensive Efficiency
• Defensive Efficiency
• Assist Rate
• Turnovers
• Rebounding
• Three Point Shooting

After crunching the numbers, here are the results.

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1. Michigan has struggled more than people thought coming off of a National Championship game appearance and an Elite Eight run in the last two seasons. One of the reasons for this season’s struggles has been the loss of key inside players Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford. “Morford,” as the duo was nicknamed throughout Big Ten telecasts a year ago may have not been flashy, but they were consistent and did a good job defensively down low. The season is not a lost one yet for the Wolverines, but things will have to get much better on the defensive end of the floor with freshmen Marc Donnal and Ricky Doyle for this unit to even sniff the postseason success they have had recently.
2. Michigan State plays four games in the next nine days, and they will look to avoid falling prey to an Eastern Michigan team that knocked off state-rival Michigan recently. How the Spartans attack Eastern’s 2-3 zone is just one of the interesting subplots to monitor in the coming days for Sparty. Freshman Javon Bess should make his debut tonight, which will give Tom Izzo some different looks as far as how he can set his rotation.
3. Ohio State will get tested Saturday when they play North Carolina in Chicago. They have to play North Carolina A&T first on Wednesday, but playing on a neutral floor will be the last real test the team gets in non-conference play against a quality opponent. It will be worth noting whether the Buckeyes can handle a big team that makes its living on the offensive glass, especially since Marcus Paige has been struggling to shoot the ball. Amir Williams and Trey McDonald will have to have good days on the boards for Ohio State to prevail.
4. Illinois already has more non-conference losses than they did last season, and Saturday’s loss to Oregon at the United Center in Chicago wasn’t exactly their best performance. Should Illini fans really be worried that this team might be destined for another NIT berth? Some disturbing trends from the loss to the Ducks were the fact that Rayvonte Rice had to resort to carrying the offense like he did for a good chunk of 2013-14, and the fact that Oregon was able to score in the paint seemingly at will. Losses to Villanova and Miami (Florida) weren’t bad losses from a resume perspective, but there were signs in those losses as well that this team might struggle later on. Illinois may need quite a few conference wins against Big Ten heavyweights to make the field of 68 for the second time in John Groce‘s tenure.
5. Joe Lunardi hasn’t released anything yet, but Jerry Palm of CBS has seven Big Ten teams currently in his NCAA Tournament field. One surprise would have to be Penn State coming in as a number ten seed. Despite their 10-1 record, the Nittany Lions only win against a team projected to be in the field was against George Washington. It’s also worth noting that Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Purdue were left out of the field at this time. This saga will be an ongoing one all season, with the national perception of the league not nearly being as strong as it has been in recent seasons. The wins that would have carried more weight in the last couple of years might not mean as much as 2014 turns to 2015.

In the aftermath of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, we might have expected to learn a great deal about Big Ten teams as they matched up against foes that were generally their peers. In the big picture, however, what that means to the Big Ten race remains a mystery. Wisconsin appears to be a notch or two above everyone else despite losing to Duke. Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State each has its fair share of issues. There are seven or eight other teams that have decent chances to become NCAA Tournament teams. As we head into the slowdown of finals and the Christmas holiday season, here’s a brief snapshot of one takeaway per squad after their Challenge contests.

Ahmad Starks had a horrible shooting night against Miami. (Stephen Haas, Lee News Service)

• Illinois: Taking 30 three-pointers probably isn’t a good idea for this team. Ahmad Starks and Aaron Cosby won’t combine to shoot 15.4 percent very often, but Nnanna Egwu shooting three bombs by himself probably isn’t a good idea for future success.
• Indiana: Emmitt Holt has been a borderline revelation, leading the team in scoring and giving Tom Crean another solid freshman to rely upon. Having only nine turnovers is something the Hoosiers should try to bottle for use all season.
• Iowa: Telling Mike Gesell that his former AAU teammate Marcus Paige is on the other team every single game might just get him to play like a First Team All-B1G selection.

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