There’s been no shortage of intrigue in the Big 12 this season. Whether you want to discuss Kansas’ future lottery picks and national title hopes, Texas’ resurrection, Baylor’s free-fall, Oklahoma State’s dive, or the resilience of Iowa State, you don’t have to look very far to find any of the nation’s biggest stories in college hoops; you could just look at this conference. But if all of those plot lines aren’t enough for you, yet another Big 12 team could muscle itself into the fray this weekend: the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Will Juwan Staten lead the Mountaineers back into tournament discussion? (Andrew Ferguson/AP)

When Bob Huggins’ team wrapped up non-conference play back on December 29, it had very little to write home about. A handful of wins over bad teams kept them afloat, but there was no NCAA Tournament resume to speak of because of losses to the only relevant teams on their slate (Wisconsin, Missouri, Gonzaga, Purdue and Virginia Tech). Those defeats put them on the ropes earlier than many expected, and to boot, they dropped four of those games by seven points or less. When the calendar turned, they had a resume that was considerably worse than their statistical profile, which is something that you don’t see very often.

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1. As if things weren’t already going bad enough for the TCU basketball program this season, the Horned Frogs were dealt another blow early this week when it was learned that freshman forward Karviar Shepherd will miss an indefinite amount of time to undergo surgery on his non-shooting hand. Shepherd had been a bright spot for Trent Johnson this season, averaging over eight points and seven rebounds in his freshman season. Shepherd’s injury took place on Saturday night against Kansas and leaves TCU with just seven scholarship players remaining on their roster and it just another dose of bad luck in Fort Worth this season.
2. Fresh off a four for six shooting performance from behind the arc against Kansas State, Iowa State freshman Matt Thomas spoke about the negative comments he heard during the Cyclone’s recent losing streak , one where Thomas struggled to just 1-11 from deep. Thomas was regarded as perhaps one of the best shooters in this year’s freshman class, but heard things like “Matt Thomas should never play” on social media throughout the last couple weeks. With those struggles behind him, Thomas is now focused on his team’s trip to Allen Fieldhouse tomorrow night to take on Kansas who is still undefeated in league play. The Cyclones were a banked Ben McLemore three-pointer away from pulling off the upset a season ago, and to bring home a win this year, Thomas will most certainly need to be connecting from the outside.
3. If I would have told you before the season that Andrew Wiggins would have been the last of the trio of talented Kansas freshmen to win the Wayman Tisdale Player of the Week award this season season in college basketball, you probably would have called me a liar (if you didn’t ask what the Wayman Tisdale POY Award was first). Perhaps it’s because of the hype that was bestowed upon Wiggins was so great that most of his weekly performances left most somewhat underwhelmed. Regardless, on Tuesday Wiggins was the third Kansas freshman in a row to earn the weekly award after averaging 22 points for the week. Wiggins has now scored 17 or more points in four of his last five games, with the blip being the poor performance at home against Oklahoma State. If he continues his assertiveness in getting to the basket and drawing fouls, watch out.
4. When Oklahoma State big man Michael Cobbins went down earlier in the season due to an achilles injury, it was expected that the Cowboys would go through some growing pains in trying to figure out how to replace Cobbins’ presence down low, but not many expected that mid-way through the conference season, Travis Ford’s squad would still be struggling this much. Against Oklahoma on Monday night, foul trouble was again another huge issue limiting stars like Marcus Smart and Le’Bryan Nash to just six and eight first half minutes, respectively. Smart battled foul trouble at home against West Virginia over the weekend, and for a player of his caliber, he has to be on the floor as much as possible. The Cowboys now sit at 4-3 in league play with wins over West Virginia twice and TCU and Texas at home. With three of their next five games against ranked opponents, Oklahoma State needs to develop an interior presence quickly.
5. The way things began back in November and December for Bruce Weber and Kansas State were rough to say the least, but since that time, the Wildcats have slowly morphed themselves into a similar team to what Weber trotted out last season. What I mean by that is Kansas State has developed a reputation in just Weber’s second season in Manhattan as a team that for the most part beats the teams they are supposed to be on a consistent basis. After dropping two games last week on the road to Texas and Iowa State, Weber called this week “gut check time” for his team as they host stingy Texas Tech before going on the road to Morgantown for a tilt with West Virginia on Saturday. At this point, K-State should still be comfortably in the NCAA tournament, but a loss or two this week could be damaging to their resume, and in Monday’s bracketology, CBSSports.com listed the Wildcats as a potential bubble team.

Want a good laugh? Take a look at our Big 12 Bubble Watch from six weeks ago. Look at how gaudy those early season records were! Sigh, we were only kids then. But now is a lot different. Kansas appears headed for another Big 12 championship while early favorites Baylor and Iowa State are struggling to find themselves in conference play. Kansas State has turned around what could have been a disaster of a season following a co-Big 12 title last year. Oklahoma State is very much in the conversation for dethroning the Jayhawks and Rick Barnes’ Texas Longhorns continue to surprise us game after game.

(Ed. Note: While it was unclear in December who would win the Big 12, at least now we have a good enough sample size to project a team to take the conference’s automatic bid. For this particular scenario, that Big 12 champion is Kansas. Not considered in this Bubble Watch were TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia.) 

Rick Barnes has coached himself back into the Texas job this season. I’m sure I could have phrased that better. (Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

In Very Good Shape

Oklahoma State: 15-3 (3-2); RPI: 12, SOS: 38

Analysis: It seemed like the world would come crashing down when Michael Cobbins went down with a season-ending Achilles injury and the Stevie Clark situation(s) flared up, but it wasn’t so. Marcus Smart is still doing Marcus Smart things and did you know Phil Forte is connecting on half of his three-pointers this season (53-for-106)? Seriously. Oklahoma State managed to be a few possessions from winning at both Kansas State and Kansas (and for that matter, a few possessions from losing at West Virginia). While having Memphis and Colorado as good non-conference wins, nice RPI and SOS numbers, no bad losses, and the rough part of their schedule still to come, Travis Ford’s team has plenty of chances to add to its portfolio.

Iowa State: 14-3 (2-3); RPI: 10, SOS: 11

Analysis: Surprised to see these guys here? The Cyclones’ struggles have been well-documented and their chances at a Big 12 regular season title are dwindling, but there is still a lot going right for this team. Remember that win over Michigan in mid-November? Its luster started to fade but the Mitch McGary-less Wolverines have re-entered the Big Ten title race with consecutive wins at Wisconsin and against Iowa. Speaking of the Hawkeyes, Iowa State beat them last month as well. At this point in the season, the difference between the Cyclones and Baylor is their head-to-head match-up in Ames where Fred Hoiberg’s team took them out with ease. What will be interesting to see from the Cyclones now will be how they deal with DeAndre Kane’s minutes. He’s played 35 minutes or more in every Big 12 game while battling an ankle injury. Will Hoiberg try to work Bubu Palo, who was placed back on the team by a county judge, into the rotation to supplant Kane? We shall see.

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1. It seems like every year now Baylor has the look of a team that can challenge for the Big 12 regular season title. And every year the Bears fall off somewhere around this time. They were ranked No. 7 in the country not too long ago but are now losers of three straight. “It’s the No. 1-ranked conference in the country, so it’s a grind,” head coach Scott Drew told John Werner of the Waco Tribune. “We’re five games into it and we’re on the upward swing, so hopefully we can keep that going.” The Bears’ next chance to get out of its current rut comes Saturday at home against Texas.
2. John Helsley of The Oklahoman asks a good question about Oklahoma State here: Is a six-day layoff after Saturday’s loss at Kansas a good or bad thing? He makes compelling cases for both answers, but we won’t know what the correct one is until the Cowboys play West Virginia at home on Saturday. The Pokes are in a Saturday-Monday rotation for their next five games, so perhaps a routine will do Oklahoma State some good.
3. As Kyle Ringo of Yahoo! Sports points out, not many people expected Texas to be playing as well as the Longhorns are this season. Rick Barnes lost just about all the talent he had from last year’s team, and that group of Longhorns wasn’t a great team anyway. But here they are a year later, sitting at 15-4, 4-2 in Big 12 play, and in a good position to make the NCAA Tournament this season. But will they keep it up?
4. Kansas State was in sole possession of second place in the Big 12 not very long ago. But then Tuesday’s game at Texas happened, and the Wildcats are suddenly tied with three other schools in that spot. Texas forward Jonathan Holmes nailed a last-second three-pointer to give the Longhorns a 67-64 win and a tie for second place. Like Sean Keeler of FoxSportsKansasCity.com said, “Gotta let it go.” There’s no shame in losing a close game on the road, but come Selection Sunday, Tuesday’s loss could be one that the Wildcats point to as one that cost them on the seed line.
5. Bill Self likes toughness. He has noted that his favorite picture is from the 2008 Final Four against North Carolina, a snapshot where two Jayhawks (Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson) dive on the floor for a loose ball with both hands while the Tar Heels’ players brace themselves for the fall. So it’s no surprise that he loved Wayne Selden‘s dive into the stands to save a loose ball  — and eventually getting an assist — on Monday night against Baylor. “He gives us an air of toughness,” Self told Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. “Certainly when he’s going after the ball like that, we become a much better team because it’s contagious.”

Another week goes by in the gauntlet that is the Big 12, as the league strives to establish its claim as the top conference in all of college basketball with six spots in the latest AP poll. Kansas continues to play very well, having navigated its incredibly difficult stretch to begin conference play unscathed, and managing to build a two-game lead on every team other than Kansas State. Speaking of the Wildcats, with road games at Texas and Iowa State this week, we’ll soon have a much better idea of how legitimate Bruce Weber’s squad really is. Iowa State has stumbled after a strong start, and unfortunately its schedule won’t be any easier with its next four games coming against ranked teams. The middle of the league continues to look like a logjam, with four schools – Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, and Texas – all ranked between 39th and 44th by Ken Pomeroy.

After dropping three in a row, Naz Long and Iowa State are left searching for answers.

Here’s a look at how our Big 12 contributors – Kory Carpenter, Brian Goodman, and Taylor Erickson – rank each school heading into the third full week of conference play.

1. Kansas — 3 points (previous: 1st; Brian-1st, Kory-1st, Taylor-1st)

Comment: “Bill Self’s team hasn’t taken very good care of the ball in its last three games, but you always prefer to learn those lessons while winning, as the Jayhawks have. If Kansas puts it all together — and chances are they will — look out.” – Brian Goodman

2. Oklahoma State — 6 points (previous: 3rd; Brian-2nd, Kory-2nd, Taylor-2nd)

Comment: “Yes, they lost to Kansas State, but the Cowboys are a better team and have a higher ceiling than the Wildcats. Their second half against Kansas Saturday showed us they can play with anyone in spurts.” – Kory Carpenter

3. (Tie) Iowa State — 11 points (previous: 2nd; Brian-3rd, Kory-5th, Taylor-3rd)

Comment: “The Cyclones are reeling after dropping three in a row, learning life on the road in the Big 12 is brutal. They have a full week off before taking on Kansas State at home next weekend. A dose of Hilton Coliseum might be exactly what is needed to get DeAndre Kane and company back on track.” – Taylor Erickson

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1. Ken Corbitt of the Topeka Capital-Journal has a good stat here about how well the Kansas State defense has played recently. The Wildcats are 14-4 overall, 4-1 in Big 12 play, and are #22 in the national rankings after beating West Virginia by 22 points on Saturday. Head coach Bruce Weber probably summed it up best when he told Corbitt: “If you guard people, it gives you a chance to win.”
2. Last season wasn’t a fluke for West Virginia, it seems. The Mountaineers are firmly in the Big 12 cellar with Texas Tech and TCU after losing their last three games. They are 10-8 on the season and haven’t beaten anyone of note, unless you count the two aforementioned teams. Other than that, West Virginia is 0-7 against power conference schools this season.
3. There is a reason Texas Tech head coach Tubby Smith is considered a pretty good coach. His Red Raiders knocked off a ranked Baylor squad last week and have a decent chance to even up their Big 12 record at 3-3 on Wednesday when they travel to West Virginia. “We haven’t always played with the intelligence we should,” Smith told Tim Griffin of the San Antonio Express-News. “But the majority of them have been through things, and the experience of playing in the Big 12 has been a big help.”
4. Kansas freshman center Joel Embiid went from an unknown player from Cameroon to the potential No. 1 overall pick in next summer’s NBA Draft in the span of about 12 months. Even Self, who told Embiid he would be the top pick one day, didn’t think it would be so soon. “You’re going to be the No. 1 pick,” Self told Embiid (courtesy of Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star) “Now, it may not be this year, but you will be a No. 1 pick.” Self is right. It may not be this year. But don’t bet against it at this point. Embiid contributed 12 points, four rebounds, and a block in last night’s 78-68 win over Baylor. 
5. If Oklahoma wants to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament and make a run in March, freshman guard Jordan Woodard playing well would go a long way toward that goal. As Ryan Aber of The Oklahoman points out, Woodard had a four to one assist-to-turnover ratio in the Sooners’ 66-64 win over Baylor on Saturday. “I think he knows that we have confidence in him,” sophomore forward Ryan Spangler told Aber.

Another week of the college basketball season is in the books and with that came results that had a significant impact on this week’s RTC25. Previously unbeaten and third-ranked Wisconsin experienced the agony of defeat twice this past week, as the Badgers fell on the road to Indiana on Tuesday and were surprised at home by upstart #15 Michigan on Saturday. Staying within the Big Ten, Ohio State‘s losing streak reached three games with Thursday’s loss at Minnesota. Previously 11th-ranked Iowa State and previously 17th-ranked Baylor also had tough weeks. The Cyclones were bested at home by #8 Kansas on Monday before dropping another game at Texas on Saturday. The Bears suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of Texas Tech on Wednesday before returning home to Waco and blowing a late lead in a loss to Oklahoma. We are now in the thick of things in conference play, and if the past several weeks can serve as any indication, the excitement and surprises will continue throughout the remainder of the season. The quick n’ dirty analysis of this week’s poll is after the jump.

Quick n’ dirty analysis:

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1. Kansas head coach Bill Self seemed to know of Joel Embiid‘s gifts before the rest of us, so the recent success of the freshman center from Cameroon isn’t surprising to him. “I told Joel as soon as he stepped foot on campus, ‘You’re going to be the No. 1 pick [in the NBA Draft],” Self told Gary Bedore of the Lawrence Journal-World after Embiid scored 13 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and had eight blocks in the Jayhawks’ 80-78 win over Oklahoma State Saturday.
2. Before the season, Baylor looked like a potential candidate to knock Kansas off the Big 12 crown. Four games into Big 12 play, however, the Bears are 1-3 and face a red-hot Jayhawks team tonight in Allen Fieldhouse. Baylor lost at home to Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon, 66-64, and the Bears are suddenly in a must-win situation if they have any hopes of winning the Big 12 this season.
3. It’s easy to look at Oklahoma State’s comeback and near-victory over Kansas in a hostile gym Saturday and agree with Bill Self and Marcus Smart. “It’s a moral victory for us, but we should have just played like that from the tip-off,” Smart said. “I would say if they play well… when they make shots like that, they can beat anybody in the country,” said Self. The problem is that the Cowboys still have little to no post presence after losing Michael Cobbins for the season. Can they beat anyone on a given night? Sure. But can they win four or six consecutive games against quality competition to make the Final Four or win the national championship? Don’t count on it.
4. Like Baylor, Iowa State was supposed to challenge for a Big 12 conference title this season. Also like the Bears, the Cyclones have underwhelmed early and now sit at 2-3 in Big 12 play. They’ve been turning the ball over at a high clip lately and it has cost them. “We were going before we let the play develop,” head coach Fred Hoiberg said after losing to Texas Saturday. “We ran into each other on one occasion.” The Cyclones have this week off before welcoming Kansas State to Hilton Coliseum on Saturday.
5. Speaking of which, Kansas State has played well at home this season, but the Wildcats face a tough stretch of road games coming up. “We have a stretch where we have to see if we can stay in the top of the heap by winning on the road,” head coach Bruce Weber told Ken Corbitt of the Topeka-Capital Journal. “How do you do that? You have to guard, you have to rebound, and you have to be solid on offense.” The Wildcats are 4-1 in the Big 12 and have a chance to separate themselves from underachieving teams like Baylor and Iowa State in the next week or two.

Luke Winn over at SI.com came out with his annual “Magic 8” article on Tuesday, giving us the group of eight schools from which the eventual national champion will hail. This year’s teams? Arizona, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Kentucky, Kansas, Florida, Iowa State, and Michigan State. Winn’s reasoning is rather simple: “Title teams always — not sometimes, always — have high-efficiency profiles on kenpom.com,” he said. Top 25 rankings are virtually meaningless. It’s hard to go wrong when trusting advanced metric profiles, though, and Winn has a pretty solid list of title contenders. Notably, two contenders — Kansas and Iowa State — could rise from the Big 12.

The Big 12 Comprises a Quarter of This Year’s Magic 8

Winn had this to say about the Jayhawks: “Embiid’s rim protection and Wiggins’ rebounding against Iowa State on Monday were incredible, and if they continue on this trajectory, they’ll have a title-caliber defense.” In their last two games, Kansas has held Kansas State and Iowa State to under one point per possession (0.94 and 0.89, respectively), and the Jayhawks by no coincidence have started looking like a Final Four-caliber team. Bill Self’s defense this year still isn’t up to the standards of his other teams or previous national champions, though. As Winn notes, the last 11 national champions have had on average a national defensive efficiency ranking of 8.5, and Kansas currently ranks 19th. If that number holds up, this would be the worst defensive team Self has coached at Kansas since 2004-05, when they finished the season as the 25th best defensive unit in the nation. As Winn said, it will come down to whether the Jayhawks can continue on their recent upward defensive trajectory. They have an elite shot-blocking presence down low in Joel Embiid, and length on the perimeter in Wiggins and Wayne Selden; they can become an elite defensive team, but they still have work to do to get there.

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1. Kyle Ringo of The Dagger writes that Kansas is rounding into form, and after Monday’s takedown of Iowa State despite 24 turnovers, it’s hard to deny that the Jayhawks are beginning to click. It feels like we’ve all seen this movie before: Kansas stumbles just enough in the early going for many among the media to ponder whether this will finally be the year that someone else takes the Big 12, only for Bill Self and company to knock some sense into all of us by MLK Day. We may be just two weeks into conference play, but the Jayhawks appear to be showing all the doubters why they continue to receive the benefit of the doubt when it comes to predicting the Big 12’s pecking order.
2. Tying up one final loose end from Monday’s marquee battle, Sports Illustrated‘s Brian Hamilton contends that Iowa State needs to improve its shooting if it wants to stay in contention. Based on the Cyclones’ 31.4 percent performance from the floor, it’s reasonable to come to that conclusion, but it also makes sense to simply chalk up their bad shooting night to a sterling defensive effort on the part of the Jayhawks. It would be helpful if ISU could challenge more shots in the paint, but since it isn’t realistic to expect Melvin Ejim and Georges Niang to sprout four inches overnight, Fred Hoiberg will have to rely on what he has it his disposal, which, as a reminder, isn’t so bad.
3. Yesterday, we talked about Kansas State needing to keep Cameron Clark from going off on Wednesday, and judging by Clark’s 1-of-9 evening at Bramlage Coliseum (and a 72-66 victory for the Wildcats), it’s safe to say that Bruce Weber’s team executed its game plan to perfection. The win was an important one for K-State, in need of a bounceback win over a fellow bubble team after the beating handed down by the Jayhawks on Saturday. Somewhat suddenly, the Wildcats find themselves at 3-1 in conference play with a pair of very winnable games (vs. West Virginia and at Texas) coming up next.
4. It may be hard to tell due to TCU‘s health problems, but the Horned Frogs are improving, according to the Star-Telegram’s Stefan Stevenson. While season-ending injuries to Devonta Abron and Aaron Durley have kept TCU from reaching its potential, they aren’t of much solace to head coach Trent Johnson. Still, there are silver linings in Amric Fields and Jarvis Ray’s development, and Kyan Anderson is an under-the-radar point guard. While no one expects them to beat Oklahoma State tonight, it will be interesting to see whether the Horned Frogs can make it somewhat competitive.
5. Lastly, Baylor‘s athletic department will host a rally tomorrow in support of both its nationally-ranked basketball teams. As part of the festivities, the general public is encouraged to bring new or gently-used coats to donate to local homeless shelters, and Whataburger will provide nourishment to students. Hey, anytime we can plug a charity effort while buzz-marketing a regional fast food chain, we have to do it.