Wisconsin has won 10 games in a row and has done so by an average of 13.9 points per game. The Badgers are 25-2 on the season and, short of a completely surprising collapse down the stretch, are going to be no worse than a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Maryland has been the second-best team in the Big Ten most of the season, with a 22-5 overall record that includes a 16-1 mark at home. The Badgers as six-point favorites tonight, which may not seem like a lot, but it’s rare to have a spread so wide between two top teams in a power conference where the second-place team is at home. The long story short is that not too many people are giving the Terps much of a chance this evening, but here are some ways that Maryland can pull off the big upset.

Melo Trimble needs to control the pace for Maryland if they want to beat Wisconsin. (David J. Philip/AP)

• Push the Tempo: Wisconsin has proven with its current roster that it can play at a much faster tempo than some of Bo Ryan’s past teams. They are athletic enough to handle a higher pace and do not need to stay in a low-possession game to win. But since Traveon Jackson’s injury last month against Rutgers, no Badgers’ starter is averaging less than 32.6 MPG. Admittedly, some of those high totals are because none of the five are ever really in foul trouble, but the other factor at play hers is that the Badgers don’t get much from their bench. Because Wisconsin rarely fouls, Maryland won’t feast at the free throw line as it typically does; this means getting some easy buckets in transition will help offset those missing opportunities while taking advantage of the fact that Wisconsin’s starters won’t get much rest.
• Make Them Shoot From the Perimeter: Another dirty little secret about Wisconsin that has been masked by all the wins is that the Badgers aren’t an elite three-point shooting team this season. That’s not to say that they can’t make shots from beyond the arc, but their 35.1 percent clip from distance ranks a middling 129th in the nation. Josh Gasser (32.1 % in Big Ten games) and Sam Dekker (32.7%) are the primary culprits in their recent futility, but it’s much easier said than done to take away the Badgers’ profound ability to score in the paint. Still, the Terps would be wise to pack things in to encourage a handful more long-range attempts on this night.

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Maryland‘s three best players have all struggled at various times in recent games — one might be hitting shots while the other two disappear. But on Wednesday night the Terps received double-figure scoring from each of Melo Trimble, Dez Wells, and Jake Layman, and as a result of a two-point win over Indiana, were able to move into a tie for second place in the Big Ten. The trio combined for 50 points, and did so on a highly-efficient 18-of-31 clip from the field. Granted, the Hoosiers won’t be confused with the ’85 Bears in defensive prowess anytime soon, but after a dreadful effort against Iowa on Sunday, Mark Turgeon has to be pleased with this performance.

Dez Wells tallied 18 points as Maryland moved to 8-4 in conference play with its win Wednesday night over Indiana. (Getty)

Trimble, Wells and Layman each took turns making plays on the offensive end, exhibiting why Maryland is at its best when they spread the floor offensively. Because all three have a knack for getting to the basket when things aren’t too clogged up inside, the Terps’ offense is at its best when there are abundant driving lanes. There is some size in the interior with Damonte Dodd and Jon Graham manning the post, but neither is much of a threat to score from anything other than putbacks and broken plays. The primary issue this season has occurred when Wells and Trimble get into the habit of taking too many contested twos and Layman has simply disappeared for long stretches. Last night, by contrast, they mixed things up nicely and got much better perimeter looks because the realistic threat of the drive had been established. In turn, Maryland made 10-of-21 shots from behind the arc (six from the trio) and shot 49.0 percent from the field.

Maryland is now 9-0 when its best players reach double-figures, and the Terps have won those games by an average margin of 14.8 points. Granted, that group includes some bad non-conference competition, but it also includes wins over Arizona State, Iowa State, Purdue, Minnesota and now Indiana. Expecting freshmen like Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens to suddenly morph into major scoring threats at this point is wishful thinking, so the ultimate success of Maryland’s season will hinge on whether they can consistently play like they did against Indiana for the rest of the way.

1. It looks like Michigan State will get a needed boost in terms of depth for their game against Notre Dame tonight. That’s because sophomore guard Alvin Ellis III will likely be back from the ankle injury that has sidelined him for the last six games. Ellis wasn’t a huge contributor last season, but he gives the Spartans some necessary backcourt depth as they play a pretty good Notre Dame squad in South Bend. This will give Tom Izzo more options defensively to try to stop Notre Dame senior guard Jerian Grant, who ranks among the top 15 players in America in Offensive Rating (147.9).
2. Maryland is still trying to figure out its rotation in the wake of losing Dez Wells to a broken wrist. The Terps have played several different lineups, depending on the opponent, so players like Jon Graham have had to stay ready depending on the situation. Graham could be a key piece against Virginia tonight, however, as Mark Turgeon comes up with a strategy to defend forwards Anthony Gill and Darion Atkins. Graham had a nice game as a starter against Iowa State, playing great defense against Cyclones star Georges Niang (10 points on 4-of-14 shooting). It will be interesting to see if he can have the same impact against the Terps’ former ACC rival this evening.
3. Iowa has a huge chance to get a win that will look awfully nice come March should it knock off North Carolina in Chapel Hill tonight. The Hawkeyes need to limit their turnovers against an athletic and deep squad, and they have to hold their own on the inside against the Tar Heels’ prodigious size. After missing out on a couple of good opportunities in New York when they lost to Texas and Syracuse, the Hawkeyes need a big win before heading into conference play. This one is also interesting because of the individual match-up between former AAU teammates Marcus Paige and Mike Gesell.
4. National Player of the Year candidates Frank Kaminsky and Jahlil Okafor are the headliners for the Wisconsin vs. Duke clash tonight, but Duke has a number of other weapons that the Badgers need to shut down if they want to beat another elite opponent. The Blue Devils’ entire starting five has been very impressive thus far, so taking Okafor’s offense away will likely not be enough to get the home win. The match-up in the backcourt between veterans Traveon Jackson and Josh Gasser against Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook will also be vitally important in this early season blockbuster game.
5. Purdue has gotten off to a great 6-1 start keyed by newcomers Jon Octeus, Vince Edwards, and Isaac Haas, but the efforts of junior captain Rapheal Davis have been just as important. Davis was especially clutch in the last two games Purdue played in the Maui Invitational, which he described as ” everything we put in this summer, it showed in the end.” What he meant with that statement was that Purdue fought off a disappointing opening round loss to Kansas State by bouncing back to win its last two games against Missouri and BYU. That positive play continued last night against North Carolina State, as the Boilermakers beat the Wolfpack, 66-61. Davis was held to just three points in that one, but he notched a team-high six assists continuing to provide just what Purdue needs to win games.

Throughout the preseason, the Big Ten microsite will be rolling out the featured breakdowns of each of the 12 league schools. Today’s release is the Penn State Nittany Lions.

Where we left off: A year removed from an NCAA Tournament berth, Penn State went into rebuilding mode and struggled to return to relevancy. The Nittany Lions featured one of the best players in the Big Ten in Tim Frazier, but had no consistency elsewhere, especially in the frontcourt. Forwards Jon Graham and Sasa Borovnjak struggled mightily and guards Jermaine Marshall and Cammeron Woodyard weren’t consistent enough to complement Frazier. The Nittany Lions ended up finishing 12-20 and 4-14 in the Big Ten. This year, there will be a lot of new faces, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing as Patrick Chambers and his team try to regroup.

Tim Frazier Carries the Penn State Hoops Baton (CDC Photos/Christopher Weddle)

Positives: Obviously, the biggest positive for Penn State is Tim Frazier, who led the Nittany Lions in points, assists and rebounds last year and figures to be a first team All-Big Ten contender. Additionally, the Nittany Lions add D.J. Newbill, a redshirt sophomore who sat out a year after transferring from Southern Mississippi. He was named to the Conference USA All-Freshman team two years ago, and he and Frazier should form an impressive backcourt duo. The frontcourt won’t be great, but Graham and Borovnjak should be improved this year, and Ross Travis has shown promise at forward.

Negatives: After Frazier, there are a lot of unknowns. Newbill certainly has talent, but will he be rusty after a year off and can he compete in the toughest conference in the country? The frontcourt still lacks talent and there’s no guarantee that Graham or Borovnjak will improve. The depth is there, but it’s not very talented depth, especially in the frontcourt. The Nittany Lions will be a very small team, and in a league full of talented big men, that could be a very big disadvantage.

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