***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2013
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

Brian Otskey is an RTC contributor.

Four automatic bids will be handed out this evening in places stretching from Connecticut to Las Vegas. All rankings from RTC and all times Eastern.

Colonial Championship (at Richmond, VA): VCU vs. Old Dominion — 7 pm on ESPN (****)

Old Dominion looks like a safe bet even if they lose but VCU more than likely has to win this game to make the NCAA Tournament. The Rams and Monarchs split the season series, each winning on the other’s home floor. This game will be all about pace and one team’s strong defense against the other’s potent offense. If Old Dominion can keep this game in the half court, they can let their stellar two point defense and rebounding take over. The Monarch’s are the best offensive rebounding team in the country while VCU ranks #303 in defensive rebounding percentage. Old Dominion also ranks highly in defensive rebounding, placing them among the best overall rebounding teams in the nation, led by Frank Hassell, averaging just under 15/10 on the season. Over his last eight games, Hassell has been even better, averaging 19/10 down the stretch. Not coincidentally, the Monarchs have won all eight of those games and 12 of their past 13. ODU is #9 in two point defense but allows 36.9% three point shooting, #298 in America. That has been the bugaboo for Blaine Taylor’s group and the Rams are one team that can really take advantage of that. Four out of ten VCU field goals attempted are threes and they shoot it at a pretty good clip, 35.6% this season. However, that percentage drops to 33.7% when you look at CAA games only. The Rams must create offense through their defense by forcing turnovers. That will offset part of the rebounding edge ODU is almost sure to have. An energetic and aggressive defense can help push the pace and take Old Dominion out of its rhythm. The Monarchs struggle to shoot and score, relying on their defense and rebounding to win games most of the time. Shaka Smart should use some zone from time to time in order to force Old Dominion to make jump shots, something they don’t do well. Rebounding out of a zone is always difficult (especially against the #1 offensive rebounding squad) but we feel it’s worth the risk. VCU shouldn’t spend all game in a zone but mixing it up defensively will greatly help their cause. Old Dominion gets 57.5% of its points from two point range but they have a few threats from deep, most notably Kent Bazemore. He’s arguably their best three point shooter and also a terrific defender, ranked eighth nationally in steal percentage.  The Rams shouldn’t have that much trouble answering Old Dominion from the arc considering they have a number of quality shooters, including Bradford Burgess (16/13 vs. George Mason yesterday), but they need to get some looks inside for Jamie Skeen. The Wake Forest transfer has had a terrific year in Richmond and is averaging 21.7 PPG over his last three. It’ll be tough to score against Old Dominion’s interior defense but Skeen should look to get to the free throw line where he’s a 73.7% shooter. VCU is a good free throw shooting team overall and they’ve made it to the line on 41.5% of their possessions in conference play. Foul trouble for Old Dominion would open up the interior a bit and allow the Rams to spread the floor easier. VCU had lost four of their last five games heading into the conference tournament but seems to have found new life just down the road from campus in Richmond. They’ll be slight underdogs tonight but this is anybody’s game. Old Dominion will likely win the rebounding battle but whoever controls the turnover margin and the tempo will likely win this game and clinch the automatic berth.

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Ray Floriani of College Chalk Talk is the RTC correspondent for the MAAC and NEC.

A Look Back

Fairfield maintains a lead. The Stags have now won 20 games two consecutive years for the first time in school history. St. Peter’s was a heartbreaking loss away from knocking off Fairfield on Sunday. Despite the setback, coach John Dunne (the choice of yours truly as MAAC Coach of the Year) feels his club is in a very positive mindset as the home stretch and conference tournament draws nearer.

Power Rankings

1. Fairfield (20-5, 13-2): Two victories on the road for the first-place Stags. Fairfield won at Manhattan (65-56) and at St. Peter’s (70-69 in overtime). The game with St. Peter’s was a battle of defenses, as Fairfield had a slight 92-91 OE edge. Defense was reflected in TO rates, as the Stags were guilty of 25% of their percentages ending in turnovers while they forced St. Peter’s into a 26% rate.

Notable: Derek Needham captured Player of the Week honors averaging 20.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in the Stags’ two road wins over the weekend.

2. Rider (18-9, 10-5): A homestand wound up at .500. Rider dropped a close (67-65) nail-biter to Canisius before bouncing back (61-50) against Niagara. A few oddities in these two games: Against Canisius, the OE was 107 and TO rate 15%. In the win over Niagara, the Broncs’ OE was 88 with a 28% TO rate. Defense was the answer, as Rider allowed a 110 OE against Canisius but only a 73 two days later.

Notable: Seniors Justin Robinson, Mike Ringgold and grad student Patrick Mandel have won 77 games over their Rider careers. Robinson has hit 44 of his last 46 free throw attempts. Freshman Danny Stewart is emerging of late, ready to carry the torch. He scored 17 points to accompany nine rebounds against Canisius.

3. Iona (16-10, 10-5): A sweep predicated on the simple formula of good offense plus good defense. The Gaels won over Siena (69-65) and at Marist (85-70). Their offensive efficiencies were 105 and 120, while they allowed 98 and 99 OE ratings. Taking care of the ball was paramount with 17% and 10% TO rates. On the other side, opposing offenses were disrupted into 27% and 25% rates.

Notable: Junior Scott Machado registered the 1,000th assist of his career against Manhattan. Mike Glover averaged 19 points for the Gaels and senior Alejo Rodriquez is coming on of late. Rodriquez averaged 9.3 points and rebounds for Iona during the week.

4. St. Peter’s (15-11, 10-5) One of two with a victory (66-54) at Marist followed be a heartbreaker (70-69 in OT) to Fairfield at home. The turnovers reared their ugly heads once again – St. Peter’s TO rate is 24% on the season and they were at 27% and 26% in the two respective games. The Peacocks shot a 61% eFG at Marist to boost the offense, but were only 41% against a better defensive team in Fairfield.

Notable: Jeron Belin scored 22 points in the loss to Fairfield. Ryan Bacon had 13 points, seven rebounds and two blocks in the win at Marist.

5. Loyola (13-12, 9-6) Two home games resulted in a split. The Greyhounds were upset by Niagara (59-57) before bouncing back for a win over Canisius (72-57). Loyola managed  meager 89 offensive efficiency clip against Niagara. A 41% eFG percentage and 22% TO rate led the offense to stagnation. They got  back on track, posting an outstanding 114 OE against Canisius.

Notable: Justin Drummond, a freshman guard, earned Rookie of the Week distinction. Drummond scored 22 points and grabbed eight rebounds in 22 minutes of action in the Greyhound victory over Canisius.

6. Canisius (13-12, 7-8). A road split for the Griffins. Canisius defeated Rider (67-65) before dropping a meeting at Loyola (72-57). At Rider, the Griffs put up an outstanding OE of 110. On the other hand, their OE at Loyola was 91, with the defense a 114. Chalk a good part of the blame to TO rate. At Rider the number was a very creditable 15%, at Loyola a ridiculously high 32%.

Notable: Senior forward Elton Frazier averaged 15 points, 6.5 rebounds and shot 63% from the floor. Frazier had 20 points in the loss at Loyola. Sophomore guard Gaby Belardo hit the game-winner at Rider. It was the third time he hit a game clinching shot this season.

7. Siena (10-15, 7-8) Saints went zero for two on the New York swing. They dropped close games at Iona (69-65) and Manhattan (84-81). A 27% TO rate was largely the undoing in New Rochelle. Against Manhattan, the Saints, a 101 defensive efficiency team, allowed a 108 mark. Pace was also a factor, as the 69-possession Saints got into a fast paced 78 possession outing against the Jaspers.

Notable: Sophomore Jonathan Breeden filled in for injured Rakeem Brookins at point guard. Breeden scored a career high 24 points against Iona and had 20 in the game against Manhattan.

8. Niagara (6-21, 3-12): Two road games and a split. They Won a close one (59-57) at Loyola before getting turned back (61-50) at Rider. Defense was solid with 89 and 88 efficiencies in the two outings. Offense? A good- enough-to-win 92 at Loyola followed by a less-than-adequate 72 against the Broncs. The latter game saw Niagara hit a 25% eFG mark (their season low) while committing a 26% TO rate. Purple Eagles have a borderline 20% TO rate on the year. Against Rider, it was too far on the negative side.

Notable: Niagara erased a 13-point second half deficit for their first MAAC road win of the season at Loyola. Scooter Gillette had ten points and a career-high eight rebounds.

9. Manhattan (5-21, 3-12): The Jaspers earned a home split, losing to Fairfield (65-56) before surprising Siena (84-81). The efficiency margin was a -15 against the Stags but improved to a +4 against Siena, thanks to a sterling 108 OE. Manhattan had a 57% eFG percentage against the Saints. It was sorely needed to offset a 24% TO rate.

Notable: George Beamon, the Jaspers’ outstanding sophomore guard, hit a career high 35 points in the win over Siena. Beamon was 12-19 from the floor and 10-10 on the charity stripe. Beamon averaged 19.3 points, 4 rebounds and 3.3 assists for his last three games.

10. Marist (4-23, 3-12): The Red Foxes dropped home games to St. Peter’s (66-54) and Iona (85-70). Efficiency margins were a respectively poor -19 and -21. They let up a 120 efficiency to Iona largely due to the Gaels 56% eFG mark. The Red Foxes struggled both games on the offensive end failing to reach a 100 offensive efficiency either time out.

Notable: Sophomore guard Sam Prescott exploded for 34 points in the loss to St. Peter’s. It was the first time in four years a Marist player broke 30 points. The last was Will Whittington with 31 in an NIT victory at Oklahoma State on March 13, 2007. Prescott was 5 of 7 from three against St. Peter’s.

A Look Ahead

Wednesday, February 16:

• Rider at Loyola
• St. Peter’s at Siena
• Canisius at Niagara
• Iona at Manhattan
• Marist at Fairfield

Saturday, February 19: The MAAC joins several mid-majors in the annual BracketBusters event:

• Austin Peay at Fairfield
• Central Michigan at Niagara
• Manhattan at Stony Brook
• Canisius at Boston University
• Iona at Liberty
• Delaware at Rider
• St. Peter’s at Loyola-Chicago
• Maine at Siena
• Loyola at Towson
• New Hampshire at Marist

Ray Floriani is the RTC correspondent for the MAAC and NEC.

Looking Back

It is generally assumed the MAAC will be wide open – mo more chasing Siena. Well guess who’s in front after one game? Truth of it is the MAAC will be a great deal of fun for fans and media, a double dose of Advil for coaches. Fairfield is the favorite, but there will be several teams on their heels. Which all adds to upsets, surprises, scoreboard-watching and great fun… except at times for the coaches.

Players of the Week

• Kyle Smyth, Iona – The sophomore guard had a 26-point first half en route to a career high 29 points in the win at Albany. Smyth tallied a school record eight treys in that game.
• Ryan Rossiter, Siena – Rossiter averaged 19.3 PPG and 17.7 RPG over the last three games.

Rookie of the Week

Marvin Jordan, Niagara – In a four game stretch, the 5’11 guard averaged 12.5 PPG, 3.0 APG and 2.5 APG. His 17 points in a win over Bowling Green established a new career high.

Power Rankings

1. Siena (2-4, 1-0) – Not an easy road, as the Saints lost to Butler and Princeton (in overtime). Siena drew first blood in conference play with a nice road win at Rider, however. A 22% turnover rate illustrates some of the early difficulties at this point. Their efficiency margin is -1 (100 OE – 101 DE). Despite an uptempo (72 possessions) pace, the Saints are only forcing opponents into a 19% turnover rate.

Player of Note: Ryan Rossiter, who now has a Siena record with 37 career double-doubles.

2. Rider (2-4, 0-1) – Dropped two straight tough ones at home. After losing the conference opener against Siena on Friday, the Broncs were upended by Hofstra two days later. The Broncs sport a 104 offensive efficiency rate and an impressive 55% eFG percentage. They were however, under 100 in both setbacks last weekend. A 22% turnover rate (26% versus Hofstra) has been the root of their undoing in some close contests.

Player of Note: Junior Brandon Penn scored 14 points and added nine rebounds (both career highs) in the loss to Siena.

3. Loyola (3-2) – A loss at Vermont balances a win against Morgan State at home. The Greyhounds are solid defensively, with a 93 DE rating and not too bad on offense sporting an OE of 100. An 18% turnover rate helps the offense smooth while an opposing eFG mark of 44% is a defensive key. Loyola averages 69 possessions per outing but seems comfortable at varying tempos.

Player of Note: Sophomore forward Erik Etherly pulled down a game and career high 13 rebounds in narrow 51-48 setback at Vermont.

4. Canisius (3-2) – Earned a New York split last week, dropping an 81-64 decision to Buffalo at home before defeating Binghamton on the road. The Golden Griffs are holding the opposition to 95 defensive efficiency. Turnovers are noteworthy on both sides of the ball. Canisius forces opposition into a 22% turnover rate, but on their end, the turnover rate is exactly the same and affecting the offense. The weekend is highlighted by visits to Iona on Friday and Marist Sunday.

Player of Note: Senior forward Elton Frazier scored 15 points and grabbed nine rebounds in 19 foul-plagued minutes against Buffalo.

5. Iona (3-3) – The Gaels topped Albany and Norfolk State on the road to get to .500. They have a big weekend, hosting Canisius and Niagara. Iona holds opponents to a defensive efficiency rating of 98, but the defensive eFG mark is a too-generous 53.5%. Turnovers have offset that. Tim Cluess’ club is forcing opponents into a hefty 24% turnover rate.

Player of Note: Beside Kyle Smyth’s outburst, junior guard Scott Machado had scored 14 points, paired with a career high 15 assists against Albany.

6. Fairfield (2-3) – The Stags snapped a three-game losing streak with an easy win over Norfolk State in the Hoop Group Classic at the Palestra in Philadelphia. Defense has been sound with a 90.7 defensive efficiency rating. Offensive rebounding percentage has been a strength, leading opponents 35%-28%. The Achilles’ heel to date is a 45% eFG mark. Offensively, the OE rating is coming along at 95, thanks to an eye popping 132 in the 91-56 win over Norfolk.

Player of Note: Senior forward Warren Edney averaged 18 PPG the last two outings.

7. Niagara (2-4) – The Purple Eagles dropped road games to Albany and Detroit, but remain uptempo with 71 possessions per game. Niagara’s been stagnant on both sides of the ball, but at least they take care of the rock, sporting an 18% turnover rate. Still not enough to counter a 41% eFG mark and an offensive rebounding percentage deficit (OREB Pct – Opponents OREB Pct) of -10%, so eventually they’ll have to up their scoring output.

Player of Note: Beside Marvin Jordan’s noted exploits, junior forward Kashief Edwards was named to the Legends Classic Detroit Subregional All-Tournament team after averaging 14.7 PPG with 7.0 RPG.

8. Manhattan (2-4) – The Jaspers had a rough go of it at the Old Spice Classic, dropping three games. In battling Georgia closely, they eventually came up short, dropping a 61-58 matchup. Manhattan simply has trouble scoring; their pace is in the mid sixties possession-wise but the offensive efficiency of 91 and eFG percentage of 41% are woefully below par.

Player of Note: Sophomore forward George Beamon had a consistently strong line against Georgia, 14 points, ten rebounds, four steals and two blocked shots.

9. St. Peter’s (2-4) – As was the case last year, good defense, not so good offense. John Dunne’s club earned a nice win over Alabama at the Paradise Jam before coming home to defeat LIU, but took a step back with a loss at Seton Hall. The Peacocks’ OE is 80 while the DE is a more-than-acceptable 96. A return to form of Wesley Jenkins making his season debut against Long Island will help. Keeping Ryan Bacon, the main interior threat, out of foul trouble will also be a positive.

Player of Note: Jeron Belin, a senior forward, hit the game-winner against Alabama and had a team high 23 points against LIU.

10. Marist (0-6) – Another struggle, even in the early going. Red Foxes have dropped all six games by twenty points or more. The efficiency margin is a whopping -36, with the OE at 81 and defensive efficiency a too generous 118. On a bright note, the conference schedule tips off this weekend and both games (Niagara on Friday, Canisius on Sunday) are in the friendly confines of home, the McCann Center.

Player of Note: Redshirt freshman swingman Anell Alexis averaged a gritty 5.3 rebounds over three games since the last update.

A Look Ahead

• December 4: Rider gets the unfortunate privilege of a trip to the Pete to face Pitt, while Manhattan takes on St. Peter’s.
• December 5: Niagara and Iona square off while Loyola and Fairfield match up.
• December 8: Loyola gets a crack at George Mason, but meanwhile in conference play, Niagara pays a visit to Buffalo.
• December 10: Fairfield meets Siena, while St. Francis (NY) and Canisius battle out of conference.

Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the MAAC and NEC conferences.

JERSEY CITY , NJ – Siena took their unblemished MAAC record into Yanitelli Center on Thursday evening and edged St. Peter’s 66-58 . The Peacocks had been riding a five-game win streak and Siena was without the services of injured senior forward and offensive threat, Edwin Ubiles. In addition, a crowd of 1,609, one of St. Peter’s biggest this season,  was animated and provided an intense and exciting atmosphere.  Junior forward Ryan Rossiter was huge with a 21 point, 9 rebound night for the Saints. In the final minute Alex Franklin, nine points on the night, muscled his way in the paint for a crucial field goal for the Saints. Siena closed out the final seconds from the charity stripe.  “We never gave up the lead (in the stretch) and we got stops when we needed to,” said Siena coach Fran McCaffery.  “We came in and prepared for a close game. St.Peter’s is too good a team. You are not going to blow them out.”

Player of the Week.   Alex Franklin (F), Siena – Franklin averaged 24.5 PPG, 9 RPG and 2 BPG during the week. He scored a season high for Siena with a 27-point outing in the win over Manhattan.

Rookie of the Week.  Rashard McGill (G), Iona – Hit for 9 PPG while averaging 5.5 RPG as the Gaels went 2-0 for the week. McGill scored a career-best 13 points and added 7 rebounds in the Iona win at Manhattan.

Milestones:

• Jeron Belin became the 29^th player in St.Peter’s history to hit the 1000 point mark.
• Ronald Moore of Siena inched closer to the all time and season record for assists. Moore is also targeting the all time MAAC assist total.
• With 15 wins, Iona coach Ralph Willard’s Iona club already eclipsed the win total of the past two seasons.

Standings and tempo free breakdowns (courtesy of Basketball State). Only MAAC games are computed. Efficiency margin is the difference between offensive and defensive efficiency. Like a checking account, positive is good, negative not so good.

Team Breakdowns

• Canisius – Split with New Jersey based schools, defeating Rider before dropping a decision to St. Peter’s. Progress!  The Griff win over Rider was number ten of the season and fifth in the MAAC. Last season Canisius put the uniforms away with ten wins  overall and just four in conference. The Canisius win over Rider saw the Griffs commit only seven turnovers and shoot 88 % from the charity stripe. Senior guard Frank Turner continued his torrid play averaging 19.5 PPG for the week.
• Fairfield – Split the last two games, defeating Marist and losing at Iona. Anthony Johnson had a double-double week with 16.3  PPG and 11 RPG . The Stag center has eight double-doubles on the season.  Derek Needham continues his outstanding play at the point. A freshman, Needham is set to crack the school’s top ten single-season list in assists. Fairfield held Marist to 50 points, the eighth time they have held an opponent under 60 points this season.
• Iona – Extended the win streak to six with victories at Manhattan and at home against Fairfield. Jermel Jenkins preserved the win at Manhattan with a late steal then matched his career high with 14 points and 7 assists against the Stags. Gael reserves outscored Fairfield’s bench 50-5 in the 68-58 decision. Iona’s 15 wins and .715 winning percentage is the highest among the fourteen Division I programs within a 30-mile radius of Madison Square Garden.
• Loyola (MD) – Finished a stretch of three road games in seven days with a win at Marist. That was just after taking Siena to the wire in a six-point decision. Loyola had a seven-point lead before the Saints closed out with a 17-4 run. Loyola did not score a field goal the last eight minutes in that contest. Senior Garrett Kelly was a surprise against the Saints . He entered the game with eight career points and no treys. Kelly scored 11 points and canned three beyond the arc. Against Marist the Greyhounds shot 58.6 % the first half and never looked back.
• Manhattan – The Jaspers close out January on the road. Manhattan has lost six of seven conference games in January but the first four by a combined total of 12 points. Guard Rico Pickett averaged 22 PPG for the week. Pickett hit 50% (8 of 16) from three and pulled down 4.7 rebounds per game. The rebounding leader is a guard — Darryl Crawford with 6.1 RPG. Crawford is also scoring 14.7 points per game. The Jaspers are the MAAC leaders, committing only 11 turnovers per game (a conference best 14.5 TO Rate).
• Marist – Dropped games to Fairfield and Loyola. Junior forward Corey Bauer set the pace with a 16 PPG and 7.5 RPG week. Bauer hit for 21 against Loyola which tied the high scoring game for a Marist player this season. Sam Prescott, Marist’s freshman guard, also had 21. Ironically Prescott’s performance was against Loyola on January 15^th in Baltimore.
• Niagara – Dropped home games to St. Peter’s and Rider. Tyrone Lewis was out both games with an injury. Sophomore Austin Conley got the starting nod in Lewis’ absence. Conley had a career-high 13 points against Rider. Demetrius Williamson paced the Purple Eagles with a 20 PPG scoring mark over the two games. The loss to Rider left Niagara at 11-11. The last time they were 11-11 in late January was 2007 when they went on a 12-game winning streak that included a MAAC title and a first round NCAA Tournament victory.
• Rider – Lost at Canisius where they had won six of the last eight and won at Niagara where they hadn’t in eight years. At Niagara, the Broncs erased an 11-point deficit and won on Novar Gadson’s tip-in. Gadson finished with 11 points and 11 boards. Rider has played 15 of its first 22 away from home. They return to Alumni Gym to play six of their final nine regular season games. Junior Justin Robinson canned five three-pointers at Canisius. Robinson has hit 15 consecutive free throws. Earlier this year he hit 26 straight from the charity stripe.
• St. Peter’s – Swept Canisius and Niagara on the road to improve to 13-7, their best record after twenty games in eight years. Balance is a key. Nick Leon and Wesley Jenkins are factors outside while Ryan Bacon mans the paint. Against Canisius however, the leading scorer was junior forward Jeron Belin with 16 points. Bacon tied a career high with 16 rebounds against Niagara. Leon had 19 in the game, 18 of which came in the second half.
• Siena – Entered the week on an eleven-game win streak, the second longest in program history and third longest current win streak in the country. Siena has a 32-game home winning streak and dominates virtually every statistical category in the MAAC. The only negative point to date is the medical report. Kyle Downey broke his foot on January 19^th in practice and is out indefinitely. Edwin Ubiles missed several games with soreness in his back and shoulder and freshman guard Jonathan Breeden missed several contests with a migraine headache. Point guard Ronald Moore continues to excel with a gaudy 8.1 APG mark, the nation’s best.

Upcoming games :

January 30 – Rider at Fairfield

January 31

• Niagara at Loyola
• Manhattan at St.Peter’s

February 1 – Canisius at Iona

February 5

• Iona at Siena
• St.Peter’s at Fairfield

February 7

• Iona at Marist
• Loyola at Manhattan

Ray Floriani of College Chalktalk is the RTC correspondent for the MAAC and NEC conferences.

EAST ORANGE , NJ –  The conference play started on Thursday with Marist visiting Fairfield. With everyone having roughly seven games in the book it is time to look at the conference from a tempo-free angle. Again thanks to BBstate.com for making this information possible and easy to obtain. When conference play heats up in January we will look at the figures from a conference games only perspective. For now all games are considered.  Efficiency is points per possession multiplied by 100. Siena at 101 actually averages 1.01 points per possession. On the other end the Saints allow .91 points per possession, a nice defensive figure.  At this point the conference average pace is 70.3 possessions per game. A fast pace, largely the result of different matchups and opposite playing styles. Expect that figure to hit the sixties in league play.

Standings (through 12/3)

Player of the Week. Julius Coles (G), Canisius – Averaged 26.5 points and 3.5 rebounds in non-league wins over Howard and Buffalo. On the week Coles shot 54% from the floor and 50% from three.

Rookie of the Week. Derek Needham (G), Fairfield – Needham’s week was highlighted by a 13 point, 7 assist performance in a win at American.

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