ACC Afternoon Five: 03.22.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on March 22nd, 2012

  1. WxMoose: After Matt Norlander needlessly ripped NC State fans for celebrating a victory that “a large subset” of the “many people [who] had the Wolfpack getting past San Diego State” also called, one Wolfpack fan had enough (actually, I’m sure a lot did). So he wrote an open apology to the media for Wolfpack nation. From my perspective, I’m not sure why Norlander felt the need to throw his jab after NC State made the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2005 (in only its second tournament appearance since).
  2. Orlando Sentinel: After rumors surfaced yesterday that Leonard Hamilton was “lobbying hard” for the Illinois job, the Worldwide Leader cited a source saying just the opposite. Hamilton always plays things like this close to the vest, so if he is looking at other jobs I don’t expect we would hear a whole lot about it. While I would be shocked if he left, Florida State’s general disinterest in basketball could definitely push him to the edge (winning costs money).
  3. Washington Post: Speaking of potential game-changing departures, Terrell Stoglin announced he will be returning to Maryland. This is definitely the best for everyone involved, as Stoglin still needs to add a dimension to his game (i.e., facilitating) to help make up for his size and move onto more NBA draft boards. He’s also critical for Mark Turgeon, who will need his scoring next year, even accounting for improvements from Nick Faust and Alex Len.
  4. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Virginia made its money on the defensive end of the floor this year, but fell apart down the stretch, allowing opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field in three of its last four games (compared to two times in its first 28). How much of that was the toll of critical injuries and transfers? It’s hard to tell. Some of it may have been the competition, which was much steeper than the rest of the Cavaliers’ schedule. Regardless, Tony Bennett has a lot of tape to watch in order to figure out how Florida was able to be so dominant against the Cavaliers in the second half.
  5. Blogger So Dear: I’m a couple of days late on this, but Wake Forest lost its sixth player to something other than graduation under Jeff Bzdelik on Tuesday. Tony Chennault has decided to transfer. Chennault claims the decision “was a personal choice and has nothing to do with basketball.” But considering his lack of legal/academic trouble, there’s not a whole lot else it could be. If it was basketball-related, Chennault may have been worried about playing time with Codi Miller McIntyre coming to Winston-Salem next year.
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ACC Morning Five: 03.19.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on March 19th, 2012

  1. Orlando Sentinel and Tallahassee Democrat: Coley Harvey’s post from Friday is looking prophetic after the Seminoles collapsed (with a little help from bad luck to boot) down the stretch against Cincinnati. For the first time since their incredible turnaround — which is worth reading about too — Leonard Hamilton’s team looked complacent. The Bearcats out-hustled them down the stretch, including the forcing of a couple untimely turnovers. Still, don’t lose sight of the forest through the trees: The fact that this Florida State team was in the Final Four discussion is a tribute to the incredible job Hamilton did with this team.
  2. Sports Illustrated: Florida State may be gone, but the ACC has another conference Cinderella in NC State. Last night Hubert Davis (a North Carolina graduate) picked the Wolfpack as his team outside of the top two seed lines to make the Final Four. Given that you don’t want to put too much weight on late night TV comments, but it’s shocking Mark Gottfried’s team is in that discussion (frankly, it’s a little surprising the Wolfpack made the NCAA Tournament at all).
  3. CBSSports.com: Jeff Borzello checks in on the status of Virginia’s program under Tony Bennett. While I am much less optimistic about next year, his comments definitely alleviate my concerns about Bennett’s ability to recruit top-100 guys with his system. Those concerns won’t totally evaporate until Bennett puts together several years of solid classes. As for next year, losing Mike Scott alone will be devastating. The Cavaliers’ goal in 2012-13 should be to compete in conference play and make the NIT.
  4. CBSSports.com: Unless you locked yourself in a lead box last night, you probably heard that Kendall Marshall broke his wrist in UNC’s win over Creighton. Gary Parrish found out that Marshall will have surgery today and is questionable for Friday’s game against Ohio. He’ll be evaluated after the surgery, but it’s tough to envision a way that Marshall plays this weekend. The good news for the Tar Heels is their first game is against a #13 seed, and John Henson is healthy again. The bad news is that Marshall is the Tar Heels’ most important player.
  5. Washington Post: Liz Clarke sat down with Mike Gminski to talk about Alex Len. It sounds like Gminski is pretty high on the Maryland center’s prospects going forward, especially once Len gets his English down. He also brings up a good point that the biggest increase in productivity for big men normally comes between freshman and sophomore year (see: CJ Leslie). I still don’t know if I see Len as an all-conference game changer next year, but he should definitely only get better as he gets in better shape and more accustomed to his new team.
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ACC Morning Five: 03.15.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on March 15th, 2012

  1. Tallahassee Democrat: This is a pretty cool article about the last time Florida State won a basketball championship. That was 1991 in the Metro Conference (the year before the school joined the ACC), and the Seminoles were led by another clutch guard named Charlie Ward. This Florida State team doesn’t have the NBA talent of those teams from the early 1990s, but it’s coming together at the right time.
  2. South Florida Sun-Sentinel: Miami is down about missing the NCAA Tournament, but the Hurricanes have something to prove in the NIT (where they garnered a #2 seed). Luckily, Durand Scott was reinstated by the NCAA, though his presence was sorely missed in Miami’s loss to Florida State in Atlanta (only to make matters worse, it was a game that probably would have put the Hurricane resume over the top). I hope the players mean it; I want to see Miami with a chip on its shoulder, both in the NIT and regular season next year.
  3. Washington Post: Seth Greenberg is looking to possibly flesh out his roster a little bit this offseason. While he’s apparently OK with adding a junior college transfer, Greenberg made things very clear: “We’re not gonna take a warm body, we’re not gonna take a guy that’s gonna win us a game. I want to take a guy who has a chance to graduate.”
  4. Soaring To Glory: Here’s a solid post on things to expect from Boston College next year. I think the author hits the nail on the head for the most part — especially on the team’s conditioning issues late in the season — though I think more emphasis should be given to guys Lonnie Jackson and Patrick Heckmann (whose fall was precipitated by a bad bout with mono). I think Ryan Anderson will develop, but he’ll need a second and third option more than anything next year.
  5. Wilmington Star News: Brett Friedlander thinks NC State could be poised for a deep tournament run if it can keep focused. I have my doubts (specifically about the team’s depth), but I generally agree. The biggest thing will be avoiding the Selection Sunday hangover game the first weekend against San Diego State. The Wolfpack are capable of winning that game but will need to avoid costly turnovers and foul trouble at all costs. They also can’t get off to a slow start and need stars CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown to embrace the spotlight.
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ACC Morning Five: 03.14.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on March 14th, 2012

  1. The Diamondback: The Maryland student newspaper doesn’t say it, but Terrell Stoglin‘s NBA draft decision comes down to whether or not he gets along with Mark Turgeon. if he does there aren’t many reasons for Stoglin to enter the draft this year, as he’s undersized and yet to show NBA-level passing or defense. However, if he’s unwilling to remain in Maryland’s program, the NBA Draft is probably the way to go (at best, I think he’s a second round pick). Stoglin is a player who would need to prove his worth in the summer league before earning a contract.
  2. Testudo Times: This is a fascinating interview with  Turgeon. He talks about the ACC’s NCAA Tournament chances (even ranking the ACC talent, starting with North Carolina, Florida State, NC State and then Duke); he talks about Stoglin possibly turning pro; he even talks about life as a mid-major and his bracket. These are the kind of interviews I wish every coach would give. Sure, he carries some biases but he also carries a lot of insight. That’s better than the normal coachspeak we hear day in and day out.
  3. Charlotte Observer: Despite claims that John Henson’s wrist injury won’t hurt North Carolina in the NCAA Tournament, I think Henson is especially valuable in one-and-done settings where there’s less time for opponents to prepare. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I would expect Henson’s non-conference effect to be much higher than his conference effect, where teams have more tape and general preparation time for the shot-blocking machine. Kendall Marshall may be the Tar Heels’ most valuable offensive player, but Henson allows guards to overplay the perimeter, knowing the lanky junior is available inside to swat field goal attempts.
  4. CSNWashington: I don’t think Chris Knoche gives Tyler Zeller enough credit for his conference performance, but I do think he captures Mike Scott‘s importance very well. I’ll be surprised if Scott isn’t the first senior whose name is called during the NBA Draft. I’m not a draft expert, but Scott’s polished mid-range game is worth a late first-round pick alone.
  5. Orlando Sentinel: [Author’s note: How can Florida State/Tallahassee be responsible for T Pain and Creed?] Apparently Roy Jones, Jr., released a rap video complimenting Florida State‘s recent basketball relevance. Seriously, with lyrics like “Step onto the court, hit you with a three, crossover eyes on me. … Jump shot in your face, call me Dulkys,” how could you go wrong?

EXTRA: Forbes has an explanation for the declining attendance in college basketball. Patrick Rishe’s argument rests on two main points: a lack of talent, and a lack of fan connection. I agree — somewhat — with both of his points, although I’d add the increasing popularity of the NBA into the first point, and emphasize high definition and game availability over both points. Even with shortened careers, we live in an age of social media where athletes can interact directly with fans for the first time; the one-and-done rule also increased the amount of talent on the floor for local colleges. The fan connection point is legitimate and true for smaller schools and bigger schools alike.

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Seminoles Bring ACC Championship To Tallahassee

Posted by mpatton on March 12th, 2012

Even the normally stoic Leonard Hamilton broke out an unabashed grin after his Seminoles knocked off North Carolina for the second time this season for the ACC Championship. His team controlled the game from start to finish despite numerous attempts from North Carolina to claw its way back into the thick of things. It was the most exciting and best-played game of the tournament, featuring two teams trading tough baskets.

Leonard Hamilton Breaks Into A Smile After Winning His First ACC Title (Credit Ethan Hyman/News & Observer).

Florida State controlled the game from the get-go, leading by 16 towards the end of the first half. That’s when Roy Williams called a timeout and Harrison Barnes led the Tar Heels on a 9-2 tear (he had seven of those nine) to close the half only down nine points. The Seminoles shot 62% from the floor and 54% from three; North Carolina kept things close because Barnes had 15, and the team was +6 in turnover margin (scoring 11 points off turnovers to Florida State’s three).

Read the rest of this entry »

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ACC Noon Five: 03.12.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on March 12th, 2012

Well, it’s all over. After a fantastic ACC Tournament (especially the final two days) the results are in with the conference getting the expected five bids. But before we move on to bracket analysis it’s time to think about the last couple of days.

  1. Keeping It Heel: A lot of people recently have been making a big deal out of Kendall Marshall‘s minutes (he’s averaging 36 a game recently). And while it’s true that Roy Williams normally doesn’t like to play his guys more than around 30 minutes, Marshall is an exception for multiple reasons: (1) since Dexter Strickland’s injury there’s a big drop-off from him to his reserve, Stilman White; (2) the speed of his game comes from his passing, not his legs; and (3) he’s not particularly foul-prone. The Tar Heels need Marshall, and while a little more rest might be ideal, he didn’t look gassed at the end of the Florida State game yesterday (his third game in as many days).
  2. Raleigh News & Observer: JP Giglio checks in with his recount of the officiating controversy from Saturday’s North CarolinaNC State matchup, including recounting the brief Twitter exchange between Marshall and Alex Johnson (who tried to draw the charge on Marshall’s game-winning shot). NC State conspiracy fans will blame Brian Dorsey: Dorsey worked the controversial game where Karl Hess tossed Chris Corchiani and Tom Gugliotta; he called four of CJ Leslie’s five fouls; and he had the best angle of Marshall’s go-ahead layup with 10  seconds left.
  3. Shelby Star: Leonard Hamilton and Terry Whisnant (a freshman guard averaging around eight minutes and two points a game) are the first Gaston County natives to win an ACC Tournament since 1987. Almost everyone talks about the big firsts (first time Florida State has ever won, first African-American coach to win, first team not Duke or North Carolina since 2004, etc.), but sometimes it’s cool to get a look at local emphasis. Gaston County started its ACC Tournament play strong behind Phil Ford and North Carolina, winning twice in the late 1970s, but the small North Carolina county’s conference postseason success has been dormant for the last 30+ years.
  4. Orlando Sentinel: Welcome to the Florida State bandwagon everyone (I’m going to pretend I’ve been on it all year, ignoring the short stretch of games between the Clemson beatdown and blowout of North Carolina)! Now the question is can the Seminoles reach their second Final Four (the first came in 1972)… Dick Vitale and Digger Phelps both initially slotted Hamilton’s squad into the final weekend last night.
  5. Independent Weekly: This article is a little dated (it was written after the ACC Tournament semifinals), but I love the author’s prose. I also think Adam Sobsey makes a good point that Duke was missing two key offensive pieces in Ryan Kelly (injured) and Andre Dawkins (AWOL). Dawkins has a history of fading down the stretch of the season, but Duke needs him to find his stroke for the NCAA tournament, or its potent three-point attack will be hurting.

EXTRA: A big congrats to Patrick Stevens of D1SCOURSE, who predicted one of the best brackets of the 115 tallied by The Bracket Project. Stevens’ bracket correctly identified 67 of the 68 members of the field, correctly seeded 38 of the 68 teams and only missed the seed by one of 64 of the teams. That’s incredible (for comparison Joe Lunardi got 67/35/61, Andy Glockner got 65/35/56 and Jerry Palm got 66/36/59).

VIDEO EXTRA: Thanks to @RnR_NCSU for this classic mashup of NC State’s selection reaction with Maury.

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ACC Tournament: Three Thoughts From Florida State – Duke

Posted by mpatton on March 11th, 2012

Florida State won a very good game with Duke. It wasn’t a pretty game, but it was a hard-fought battle that the Seminoles deserved to win.

  • Once again we got a chance to see the heart of this Duke team. Down ten early in the second half, nearly everyone–myself included–thought Duke might fold with its offense struggling (the Blue Devils committed 14 turnovers in the first half alone). Instead Duke came back to take the lead with five minutes left. The Blue Devils ended up losing, but the resilience of this squad definitely impresses me more than anything else. Duke showed it could play physical, something the Plumlees don’t get enough credit for, and that it can hang with good teams without shooting lights out from three.

    Bernard James Is 27, but only Started Playing Basketball in the Air Force.

  • After the game Mike Krzyzewski said Michael Snaer is the “best competitor in our league.” Yesterday’s game was definitely supporting of that. In addition to playing the best defense on the court, he immediately hit the second-biggest shot in the game right after Duke took a 2-point lead with 3:40 to play. He’s one of those players that’s just unreal to watch from the court level: he never gives up on plays and makes it impossible to be comfortable offensively.
  • After the game a reporter asked Leonard Hamilton about his team’s experience (the Seminoles have six seniors and graduate transfers on their roster). Hamilton pointed out that most of the team didn’t actually have that much experience. The team has transfers (Jeff Peterson), players new to basketball (Bernard James), and many players with much more expanded roles (Luke Loucks). There’s a reason Florida State started so slowly.
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ACC Tournament: Semifinals Preview

Posted by mpatton on March 10th, 2012

This is the juciest semifinals the ACC Tournament had to offer: rematch of NC StateNorth Carolina (where it’s likely John Henson will be limited at best) that will seal NC State’s NCAA bid, pride and return to relevance with a win and the DukeFlorida State rubber match (where Ryan Kelly is hurt) featuring the Seminoles playing better basketball.

NC State Gets One More Shot At Its Rival.

I give both underdogs very good odds at winning. NC State could go either way: the team was amped after beating Virginia so this could be a bit of an emotional letdown game, but in a rivalry game I expect the Wolfpack to be in top form. CJ Leslie is playing as well as anyone right now and the Wolfpack have the athleticism to run with the Tar Heels (especially when some of the alternative lineups are on the floor). I expect Kendall Marshall and Henson to get plenty of rest so that’s a lot of those alternative minutes.

Florida State should have a little bit of an edge against Duke sans Kelly. The one thing that will keep Duke in it is Florida State’s recent inability to close games. If the Plumlees get into foul trouble like they did in Tallahassee, we’ll be seeing a whole lot of Josh Hairston. And while the Seminoles have struggled against teams playing small ball, Hairston isn’t exactly a stretch-four like Kelly.

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ACC Afternoon Five: 03.07.12 Edition

Posted by mpatton on March 7th, 2012

Technical difficulties kept us from getting this up this morning. So here goes… an Afternoon Five.

  1. Tallahassee Democrat: Deividas Dulkys got a pretty special family night surprise when his family from Lithuania surprised him the day before the game by showing up at his girlfriend’s apartment. Dulkys had quite the showing at the game including aunts from Chicago and his host family from Nevada, but no one told him that his parents and sisters were going to make the trip across the globe to see him play at Florida State for the first time. Stepping back a little, the Seminoles are also looking at their best chance to win the ACC Championship in program history.
  2. Wilmington Star News: Speaking of special senior nights, Ty Walker‘s was supposed to be one of redemption. After three years of falling short of expectations and an indefinite suspension that kept him out for the first semester, his senior night was supposed to represent the new leaf he turned over this year. On the basketball court he was more active than ever, blocking shots with reckless abandon and fitting in surprisingly well for his first few games back. “I know people aren’t always going to be satisfied […] but at least I gave them something,” Walker noted. His mom even surprised him by flying across the country for his senior night last week. This article from Brett Friedlander gets at Walker’s side of the story.
  3. Culpepper Star-Exponent: On the heels of the New York Times look at one of college basketball’s vaguest advantages, Whitelaw Reid finds a specific case. Now without seeing more data, I’m a little skeptical. The variable is what brand of basketball teams use. The home teams choose the ball. Virginia uses Nike basketballs; Sammy Zeglinski likes Wilson. The evidence (besides Zeglinski saying it has a “spongy feel”) is that two of the senior’s best games came against Maryland, a team that uses Wilson balls. As Reid points out, the NCAA Tournament also uses Wilson balls, so we should get at least one more data point to evaluate Zeglinski’s claim.
  4. Raleigh New & Observer: It’s a speculation time of year: March Madness, the NFL Draft and that sports purgatory before the NBA Playoffs and baseball season’s starts. It’s also about time to start talking about who is leaving college for the NBA. As Caulton Tudor points out, 13 of 15 All-ACC selections were underclassmen. I don’t really agree with Tudor’s rankings. Maybe I’m naive, but I think Terrell Stoglin will stick it out at least one more year in College Park. He’s far from a sure bet, and needs to show a wider range of skills to attract first round eyes. The same would apply for Glen Rice, Jr., but his indefinite suspension will definitely be a factor. I think the sure-fire departures are Harrison Barnes, John Henson and CJ Leslie. Who knows with Austin Rivers? If he gets a lottery promise, I expect him to leave (which seems likely considering the dearth of good guards this year). Still, this is something that will become very important in a few weeks.
  5. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Congratulations Brian Gregory, Mark Turgeon, Jim Larranaga and Mark Gottfried. You finished your rookie year in the ACC. For many coaches, the second year is the toughest, but Turgeon and Gregory were trying to build up programs left in disarray after Gary Williams and Paul Hewitt’s respective departures. Larranaga has plenty of talent, but he only should lose DeQuan Jones and Malcolm Grant from an already talented team; Gottfried’s team will return plenty of firepower and boasts the top recruiting class in the conference. Factor in an extra year of experience against the league titans, and we should expect more success from the conference as a whole next year.
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ACC Bracketology: Florida State’s Resume

Posted by mpatton on February 29th, 2012

Over the next week we will be taking a look at the ACC teams whose names should be called on Selection Sunday. The series started with Duke and North Carolina.

How do you judge Florida State? The Seminoles own two outstanding wins. Their 33-point win against North Carolina may be the most impressive win for anyone of the year. Beating Duke in Durham is nearly as impressive. Florida State’s other good wins are against Virginia and Miami. But Florida State also lost to Princeton. It also took a 20-point beating at Clemson to open ACC play and somehow lost at Boston College. The rest of the Seminoles’ losses came to likely NCAA Tournament teams (Harvard, Connecticut, Michigan State, Florida, Duke and Miami).

Michael Snaer Is Stepping Up His Senior Season.

Obviously, the Seminoles are dancing. They also still have a road game against Virginia and a rubber match against Clemson to improve their resume. As of right now I agree with the masses and think Florida State is in the #5 to #6 seed range. (That link is to the Bracket Project’s Bracket Matrix, which takes 95 brackets into account before compiling the consensus S-curve.) There are legitimate arguments for seeding Leonard Hamilton’s team anywhere from #4 to #8 depending on how much you value non-conference play.

One important thing to remember is that Ian Miller didn’t play in the first semester. He’s one of the team’s better offensive players, averaging double figures per game. Combine Miller’s performance with Michael Snaer finally realizing his McDonald’s All-American hype in conference play, and there’s a reason the Seminoles look so different in 2012. Projecting Florida State’s success in March is more difficult than assessing the proper seed. This is a team that could go to the Sweet Sixteen (or beyond) if shots are falling. It’s also a team that could get upset in the first round if shots aren’t falling. We know the defense will be there (though the team’s struggles defending smaller line-ups during the last two games give some pause); but how far can Snaer and company carry the offense?

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