It was supposed to happen with the group led by Adreian Payne, Gary Harris, and Keith Appling two seasons ago — that was the team that was supposed to end Tom Izzo‘s four-year Final Four ‘drought.’ Instead, that Michigan State squad lost to Connecticut in the Elite Eight and it was his follow-up group — led by leftovers like Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice — that recovered from a shocking early home loss to Texas Southern to play in the season’s final weekend. Most of that team returns this season, and some high-impact newcomers are also on board. Shouldn’t Izzo’s Spartans be ranked higher to start the season? Isn’t another March run a distinct possibility?

Denzel Valentine will look to lead Michigan State to bigger and better things in his senior season (Getty).

Sparty begins the season ranked #13 in both major polls. It returns eight of its top 10 scorers from last season and adds West Virginia transfer Eron Harris (17.2 PPG in 2013-14) to the mix. The freshman class includes McDonald’s All-American Devonta Davis along with a couple more knockdown shooters in Kyle Ahrens and Matt McQuaid. Perimeter shooting definitely appears to be a major positive for this team. Multiple shooters could hit close to 40 percent from deep, as Valentine, Bryn Forbes and Harris have all reached that benchmark in recent seasons. Sharing the ball is another positive aspect of what should be an elite offense. Michigan State logged the seventh best team assist rate in the nation last year, assisting on 63.7 percent of its field goals. Valentine in particular has shown an ability to find the open man as a point forward, ranking eighth in the Big Ten in assist rate (26.9 percent) last year and cutting down his turnover rate by two percent despite much higher usage. Lourawls “Tum Tum” Nairn also notched an assist rate above 20 percent, and that number should increase if he gets added minutes with the departure of Trice. This could be an elite Spartans’ offense once the season gets rolling. Read the rest of this entry »

Brian Goodman is the lead correspondent for the Big 12 microsite. You can follow him on Twitter @BSGoodman.

Burning question: With last season’s core still intact and a new coach on the sidelines, how will Iowa State avenge one of the biggest NCAA Tournament upsets in recent memory?

Over the last few years, Iowa State has enjoyed a fantastic revival, with former head coach Fred Hoiberg leading the Cyclones to four consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances for the first time in program history. While the pearl-clutching over the “unwatchability” of college basketball has always been a bit overblown, Hoiberg’s free-flowing, efficient style of offense was a joy to watch. Additionally, the way he fashioned all-conference players from such wayward transfers like Royce White and DeAndre Kane gave his tenure in Ames a nice human interest component to complement his on-court success. Under Hoiberg, Iowa State didn’t succeed in knocking Kansas from the perch of the Big 12, nor did it match Larry Eustachy’s success in March, but it’s crystal clear that he left the program in a far better place than when he found it.

One of the best young minds in college basketball in Fred Hoiberg was replaced with yet another dynamic offensive coach in Steve Prohm. (Iowa State Athletics)

That goes just as well for the team itself as it does for its relevance in the national picture. After years of flirtation, Hoiberg finally accepted a head coaching job with the Chicago Bulls, and just nine days later, Iowa State hired Steve Prohm to sustain and build the program for the future. While Hoiberg was a great offensive mind, it’s going to be a lot of fun to see what Prohm does with nearly all of Iowa State’s rotation back in the fold. The most fascinating element of Prohm’s first year at Iowa State is how he’ll use point guard Monte’ Morris, and that’s saying a lot for a team that has a consensus preseason All-American (Georges Niang) also in the fold. The coach’s success in developing point guards Isaiah Canaan and Cameron Payne into NBA prospects became his calling card at Murray State, and in Morris, he arguably has the nation’s best ball-handler over the last two years. Canaan and Payne soaked up possessions under Prohm, so it will be interesting to track how much offense Morris initiates this year after so much of the offense in Hoiberg’s system was initiated by Niang.

Read the rest of this entry »

This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.

Can a pair of graduate transfers bridge the gap from a remarkable four-year run of success into the future?

Given the events of recent weeks at Louisville, it would be reasonable to answer this burning question with a far more complicated one: What is the future of Louisville basketball?

With both the NCAA and the university conducting independent investigations into serious allegations made by escort Katina Powell in her book “Breaking Cardinal Rules,” a pall of uncertainty hangs over the Cardinals’ program this preseason. Will sanctions be levied? Will head coach Rick Pitino be relieved of his duties in the wake of his own sexual scandal five years ago? Is it reasonable to expect this year’s Louisville team to maintain a singular focus on the court with all of the other negativity swirling around them elsewhere? These are questions that will need to be answered before talent evaluation on the Cardinals’ roster even becomes relevant.

Holding steady amid alleged off-court issues that might eventually cost him his job, on the court Rick Pitino has a very good squad to work with. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

The truth of the matter is that despite Pitino captaining what could be a sinking ship, no one is perhaps better equipped to navigate the rough waters ahead than he is. Remember that it was Pitino who helped return Kentucky back to prominence in the 1990s after recruiting violations under Eddie Sutton left the program on probation. The longtime head coach, beloved by his players, will have the toughest task he’s encountered since his rebuild at Kentucky — keeping this group zeroed in on what they can control. Because if not for the exigent circumstances surrounding the club, the narrative assigned to this Cards’ team would undoubtedly be defined by uncertainty. Read the rest of this entry »

In this, the third preseason installment of the RTC Podcast, the guys welcome Bennet Hayes (@hoopstraveler) to join the discussion about favorites, surprises and storylines for each of the six major basketball conferences (sorry, American fans!). In a wide-ranging pod, consensus was reached in only a couple of conferences this preseason — see if you can guess which ones? As always, Shane Connolly (@sconnolly114) hosts, and make sure to subscribe on iTunes so it will automatically download to your listening device each week. The full rundown is below!

• 0:00-10:23 – ACC Preview
• 10:23-17:51 – Big East Preview
• 17:51-25:21 – Big Ten Preview
• 25:51-32:54 – Big 12 Preview
• 32:54-37:51 – Pac 12 Preview
• 37:51-43:43 – SEC Preview
• 43:43-45:41 – Which will be the best conference?
• 45:41-49:13 – College Basketball Survivor Pool

There’s not many programs out there that will be more interesting to follow this season than Indiana. For starters, Hoosiers’ head coach Tom Crean is on the hot seat. Given his team’s lofty preseason ranking (#15 in AP preseason poll) and icy relationship with a sizable portion of the Indiana fan base, the 49-year old head coach could find himself in the unemployment line in April if he fails to lead his team to an NCAA Tournament run this year. Luckily for him, Indiana is a team more than capable of doing such a thing, thanks to a high-powered offense (116.7 adjusted efficiency, ninth in the nation) that will be led by one of the best point guards in the country (Yogi Ferrell). Now entering his senior season, the two-time all-Big Ten performer looks to lead the Hoosiers back to how he found the program when he was freshman — capable of winning the Big Ten and becoming legitimate national title contenders.

Yogi Ferrell will need to lead the Hoosiers to play better defensively if he is to make a serious run in the NCAA Tournament in his final year. (Darron Cummings, AP)

Ferrell (16.3 PPG last season) is lucky to have talented players like James Blackmon, Jr. (15.7 PPG) and Troy Williams (13.0 PPG) on his wings. The trio fuels a frenetic uptempo offense (77.4 PPG) that can score in bunches against any team, but even with the addition of five-star center Thomas Bryant to man the post, the Hoosiers won’t go anywhere next March if they don’t improve their atrocious defense. There’s no nice way to put it: Last year’s defense — ranked 214th nationally, per KenPom — was an unmitigated disaster. It was an inexcusable display of ineptitude in almost every defensive area from a power conference team, as only four other NCAA Tournament teams had a worse defensive rating last season (all were #13 seeds or higher). The table below illustrates Indiana’s woeful play on the defensive end of the court. Read the rest of this entry »

Who’s Got Next? is a weekly column by Sean Moran, the RTC recruiting guru. Once a week he will bring you an overview of what’s going on in the complex world of recruiting, from who is signing where among the seniors to discussing the recruitment of the top uncommitted players in the country. We also encourage you to check out his contributions at The Intentional Foul dedicated to recruiting coverage and analysis. You can also follow Sean at his Twitter account @Seanmohoops for up-to-date news from the high school and college hoops scene. If you have any suggestions as to areas we are missing or different things you would like to see, please let us know at rushthecourt@yahoo.com.

Note: Scout.com used for all player rankings.

It’s been rumored for months, but now it’s official: “I’ll be attending Duke University,” Harry Giles said at a Noon ET press conference earlier today. The 6’10” senior has been coveted by the top college coaches in America from the time he first put on a jersey at Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC) several years ago, and this article was supposed to focus on Duke’s Class of 2016 — now with the top two players committed — being one for the ages. While it might still end up this way, the somber backdrop to today’s announcement was that the nation’s top prospect tore his right ACL earlier this week and will miss his senior season at Oak Hill Acadamy (VA).

After three years at Wesleyan Christian, Giles’ transfer to the famed basketball powerhouse in the Virginia mountains meant that a high school national championship, McDonald’s All-American honors, and a National Player of the Year award were all in play. In an unfortunate but familiar twist of fate, all of those possibilities were removed when Giles heard a pop while driving to the basket against Moravian Prep (NC) on Tuesday night. The timing for his rehabilitation isn’t awful — Giles will be able to take his time to strengthen his knee in order to get ready for his freshman season in Durham one year from now, and sadly, this isn’t his first rodeo. While playing for the USA U-16 team in the 2013 FIBA Americas, Giles tore both his left ACL and MCL. He spent his sophomore season rehabilitating and it wasn’t until May 2014 when he returned to the court during Nike EYBL AAU action. He initially was nowhere near the player he had been as a freshman, and it wasn’t until almost 13 months after his injury that Giles was able to do some of the things that had previously come naturally to him. With all of the top college coaches packed into a gym in Colorado Springs for the USA U-17 tryouts, Giles threw down a rim-rattling dunk and followed that up with a smooth one dribble pull-up from 15 feet. He was back.

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This team preview is part of the RTC Big 12 microsite’s preseason coverage.

Burning Question: Will Baylor find consistent point guard play without Kenny Chery?

Rico Gathers made two free throws to give the Bears a 12-point lead with under three minutes to go in regulation. Baylor had finally built some separation from a pesky Georgia State squad after trading punches for much of the second half. It looked like this #3 seed — the conference’s other #3 seed, Iowa State, was already heading home — was going to advance to the Round of 32. Everything from that point happened so fast. R.J. Hunter scored 12 of Georgia State’s last 13 points, capped off by an insane three from an insane distance that gave us all a reason to remember Ron Hunter’s name forever.

Baylor’s Lester Medford will be the team’s new starting point guard. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images North America)

But that’s over and done with; this is a new season. Baylor returns a large portion of its rotation even though the loss of its veteran leadership — Royce O’Neale and Kenny Chery were first and second in minutes played on the team last season — looms large. O’Neale’s size and brilliance from the perimeter will be missed, but perhaps the biggest question mark on this year’s team will be in replacing Chery at the point guard position. While turnovers often plagued the two-year starter, Chery averaged 5.6 assists per game in 35 Big 12 contests. His replacement must be as steady at the controls as he was.

Without even looking at Scott Drew‘s roster, you could make a reasonable assumption that his frontcourt will be long, rebound, block shots and make basketball no fun for anyone who dares to enter the paint. Along with the senior Gathers, Johnathan Motley appears poised for a huge sophomore campaign. You knew him as a rebounder and last year’s leader in blocked shots, but the 6’9″ jumping jack is quickly becoming a reliable offensive player as well. In three international games over the summer in Canada, Motley averaged 20.6 points per game as his NBA Draft status continues to rise. Taurean Prince‘s star is also expected to shine brighter than ever during his senior season. In addition to leading Baylor in scoring, draft evaluators salivate over Prince’s wingspan (6’11.5″), his ability to shoot (39.5 percent three-point shooter in 2014-15), defend multiple positions, run the floor and crash the glass (8.5 rebounds per 40 minutes last season). DraftExpress lists Prince as a late first round pick in this June’s draft. He’s the NBA wing of the future, today.

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In the next three weeks leading up to season tipoff, the Pac-12 microsite will be evaluating each of the league’s 12 teams. Today’s stop: Westwood.

UCLA Bruins

Steve Alford has been in Westwood for two seasons now and he’s got consecutive Sweet Sixteens under his belt. For the first time in his tenure, he’s got a complete roster that is balanced between the frontcourt and the backcourt. And he’s got the makings of terrific recruiting classes started for the next two seasons. And yet, somehow, if you were to listen to certain segments of the notoriously tough UCLA fan base, you would think that the sky was falling. There are very high standards when you’re the head coach of a program with 11 national titles already in the rafters, but given the recent (and by recent, the last 40 years) history of the program, Alford is far ahead of the game. Still, barring a shocking development, this particular Bruins’ team is not likely to bring home banner #12. At UCLA, that all too often qualifies as a disappointment.

This Pair Of Alfords Has Have Had A Strong First Two Seasons In Westwood. (AP Photo)

Strengths. The Bruins’ biggest positives this season, especially compared with Alford’s previous two years, are two things: stability and depth. In Alford’s first year, there were the common questions associated with a new regime coupled with questions about frontcourt depth and the ability of freshmen to earn big minutes. Last season there was life without Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams and a short bench that forced players like Gyorgy Goloman, Thomas Welsh and Noah Allen into roles they weren’t ready for. This year? The Bruins have the same three returning starters — Bryce Alford, Tony Parker, Isaac Hamilton — that they planned to have all along, plus the guys who got bonus minutes last year. Throw in a pair of highly-regarded freshmen guards and combo forward Jonah Bolden making his debut after a year as a partial qualifier and you’ve got a deep UCLA team without many obvious holes in the lineup. Read the rest of this entry »

This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.

Burning Question: Is this really the best team in the country?

The Tar Heels were a very good team last season — remember, they led national runner-up Wisconsin until the final six minutes of the Sweet Sixteen (and were within one point in the final minute). But JP Tokoto opted to play basketball for money, leaving Roy Williams without much depth on the wing. Theo Pinson will likely get the call to replace him and seems a good fit for the role. He was a worse than average shooter last season but he was a good prep free throw shooter which usually tracks well with shooting ability. Pinson should immediately assume the role as this team’s defensive stopper.

Is a healthy Theo Pinson the difference between a good and great North Carolina team? (USATSI)

The x-factors for this team are twofold. First and foremost, Marcus Paige has to get healthy — his recently broken hand will put him out of action for a month. The real x-factor, however, is Joel Berry. Berry was quietly very efficient last season. It was shocking that he finished the season with an offensive efficiency rating of over 110 (the best of the bench). With Paige out of the lineup, this will be Berry’s offense to run from day one along with Nate Britt. The good news for Tar Heels fans is that both point guards are competent three-point shooters, and it’s also good for both to get early season experience at point guard so that when Paige comes back he’ll mostly be able to play off the ball. Read the rest of this entry »

North Carolina announced on Wednesday that senior point guard Marcus Paige has suffered a fractured third metacarpal on his right (non-shooting) hand in practice and will be sidelined three to four weeks as a result. Paige, the leading returning scorer for the Heels and the key cog to the nation’s top rated preseason squad, was selected as the Co-Preseason Conference Player of the Year just last week by the members of the Atlantic Coast Sports Media Association.

Marcus Paige Will Miss the Start of His Senior Season (newsobserver.com)

Paige is coming off a season where he was slowed by plantar fasciitis in his right foot, causing his offensive production to dip after a stellar sophomore campaign. In that second year in Chapel Hill, Paige was named to the all-ACC first team, averaging a career-high 17.5 points per contest. Slogging through the much of his junior season with the nagging injury, Paige still managed to lead the club in points and assists, garnering third-team all-ACC honors.

With Paige likely to miss the first few weeks of game action, sophomore Joel Berry II will likely get the first look to replace the senior captain. Berry, a McDonald’s All-American, averaged a shade over four points per game as a freshman, but saw his opportunities and production rise as he got more acclimated to the collegiate game. He scored a season-high 15 points in a March victory over Georgia Tech and was very effective off the bench in the NCAA Tournament, highlighted by a nine-point, three-assist game in 19 minutes in a regional semifinals loss to eventual national runner-up Wisconsin.

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