On Wednesday, Kevin released his list of the five most important Pac-12 non-conference games of the season, and a few weeks back, I released my own rankings. This post will explain why my top five games are better than Kevin’s, but first, let’s see where his games fall on my list:

Here’s a Hint (credit: Wikipedia)

5. Florida @ Arizona (My Rank: 5)
4. California @ Wisconsin (2)
3. Stanford vs Missouri (28)
2. UCLA vs Georgetown (11)
1. USC vs Illinois (25)

And now, my top five:

5. Florida @ Arizona (December 15) – This is the one game we agree on, so there’s nothing to argue about here. This will likely be a battle of Top 15 teams when the Gators venture into the McKale Center, making it a must-see contest. It will be Florida’s second trip to the desert in the 2012 calendar year, the first being a two-game split in the NCAA Tournament last March. They’ll be looking for revenge after being upset at home last year by Sean Miller and company, 78-72 loss in overtime.

4. Oregon State vs Kansas (November 30) – Without question, this will be Oregon State’s biggest non-conference game in recent memory. And depending on how they do in the 2K Sports Classic earlier in the month, a win could mean a clean non-conference slate for the Beavers heading into Pac-12 play. In their way will be a raucous Sprint Center crowd, not to mention the combination of Elijah Johnson and Jeff Withey. This game doesn’t make Kevin’s list, instead it’s California-Wisconsin, a matchup we’ll break down in just a moment.

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As part of our Washington State week, we wanted to reach out to the guys at CougCenter for their takes on the upcoming Cougar basketball season. Kyle Sherwood was kind enough to spend some time with us and give us his thoughts.

Rush The Court: How do the Cougars plan on replacing players like Marcus Capers, Abe Lodwick, and Faisal Aden?

CougCenter: Easier than you’d think. Capers, Lodwick and Aden were all high-character guys and great team leaders, but for the most part they were all one-dimensional  players. Those players meant a lot to WSU, but I think this current roster is the first one that really fits into how Ken Bone wants to play. The 2012-13 team is loaded with athletic wings who can create space and hit shots from long-range, so we’re going to replace those guys by running…and running…and running..?

Look For The Fast Cougars To Have Many Transition Opportunities That End With Dunks (credit: Stephen Dunn)

RTC: CBI time! Washington State played four games in three different tough road environments (well, as tough as CBI crowds can get), and ended the tournament with a 4-2 record and runner-up finish. Overall, was this a good experience for the team?

CC: Well, Capers and Lodwick meant so much to the program that it was worth playing as long as they wanted to keep going. The team had really turned a corner around the beginning of February, but it wasn’t showing up in the win column. When they started advancing in the CBI, it wasn’t just that they were winning, it was how dominating they looked. It was nice for the players to see the work they had put in to turn their season around pay off with such lopsided scores. I think we all would’ve liked a tournament win (because you know WSU would hang a flippin’ CBI banner), but the team got what it needed from its success in the first four games.

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It’s been a fun week of California basketball coverage here on the Pac-12 Microsite, so we’ve decided to close it out with opinions from a couple of Golden Bear insiders. “Kodiak” and “LeonPowe” from California Golden Blogs agreed to kindly join us for a Q&A on the state of the Cal program. If you’re reading this, you no doubt already know the great work and comedic relief that they do over there covering the Golden Bears, but consider this a friendly reminder.

RTC: With the departure of Jorge Gutierrez, is Allen Crabbe firmly locked into the “main leader” role this season?

Whether By Example or Vocally, Junior Guard Allen Crabbe Will Be In Some Sort of Leader Role Come October. (credit: AZ Central)

Kodiak: From a personality standpoint, Crabbe seems more of a lead by example type. However, when he was a high school player, he took control as an upperclassman and led that team to a state championship. It may be that he’s deferred because we’ve had such strong leaders in MSF (Markuri Sanders-Frison), Jorge Gutierrez, and Harper Kamp. He’s very respectful and may simply have been waiting his turn. The guy who is most likely to assert himself vocally would be point guard Justin Cobbs. He’ll have the ball in his hands a lot, so how he responds to Coach [Mike] Montgomery will have a huge impact on team chemistry.  He has a lot of potential, but it’s things like leadership, decision-making, body language, and consistency that are on the wish list.  He improved throughout last year and did very well for a young point guard in his first year as a starter.

LeonPowe: In terms of most talented player – absolutely, but I think in terms of actual team leader, I think he’ll have strong competition from junior point guard Justin Cobbs. Crabbe is our best player and his performance will go a long way in how well or poorly we play this year, but Crabbe has also had a tendency to, well, not seize the game by its throat and play up to the level which we know he is capable of. On the other hand, Cobbs is the point guard and is a lot more aggressive than Crabbe has tended to be in the past two years, so I think a lot of the on-court leadership will come from Cobbs.

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The 2012-13 California team will feature a lot of untapped talent, both in newcomers and players who started to break the surface last season, but are primed to have a breakout season next year. While there should be some growing pains early, this team’s potential has Cal fans excited. Which player are you most excited to see (new or returning), and what story will they have written by next April?

Connor Pelton: Sophomore-to-be forward David Kravish showed incredible strides last season as a true freshman, so I’m excited to see whether he is ready or not to be one of the top forwards in the conference in 2012-13. The coaching staff did a tremendous job in just the three short weeks they had to get Kravish ready for his freshman season, and he responded immediately by putting up good numbers on the glass. By December, the wiry freshman was also enough of a scoring threat that opposing defenses had to stop focusing on Richard Solomon and Harper Kamp and devote a lot of time in the game-plan to him. Now, Kamp is gone, and the next step in Kravish’s growth as a player will be to increase his buckets on a more consistent basis. That will be tough, as he will no longer be the off-the-radar freshman. But if he can improve his face-up game and bulk up over the summer, there is no doubt that he will be the man in the middle for the Golden Bears when they need a late basket.

Justin Cobbs Gets Ready To Put Home A Layup, And David Kravish Is Prepared To Get The Rebound If It Doesn’t Fall. (credit: AP)

Andrew Murawa:  For the past two seasons, Jorge Gutierrez was a focal point of the Golden Bear backcourt, playing something of a combo guard for Mike Montgomery’s team and acting as a cult of personality on which fans up and down the Pac-12 conference all had an opinion on. With Gutierrez’s graduation, however, the Cal backcourt is firmly in the hands of a couple of juniors: Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs. While Crabbe is the one with the brightest future (6’6” shooting guards who can stroke the three at 40% tend to draw the interest of NBA general managers), Cobbs most piques my interest, and he may be the guy who has the biggest impact on the 2012-13 Golden Bears. While it took Cobbs some time to get comfortable in his new Berkeley digs after transferring from Minnesota,  by mid-season he was often the best player on the team, carrying the team to a blowout win over UC Santa Barbara in the absence of Gutierrez (25 points on 10-12 shooting), and twice notching double-digit assist games in conference play while consistently playing nearly 40 minutes a night. In his sophomore year he showed a great rapport with Crabbe in the backcourt, able to find his teammate for clean looks, while still maintaining his own dangerous offensive game. While Cobbs may not quite rise to the level of a first team Pac-12 performer next season (at least in any reasonable five-man first team, i.e. not the 28-man first team that the conference regularly puts out), by next April he’ll have the reputation of a guy who is as important to his program as any player in the conference, a guy just as comfortable playing the role of distributing point guard as he is knocking down threes at a high rate, getting to the line on a regular basis and being one of the most efficient guards in the conference.

After losing not only the Pac-12 Defensive and Player of the Year at guard, but also the leading scorer in the post, California will turn to the newcomers for a spark on both sides of the ball. Ricky Kreklow leads this group, already having experience after playing a year at Missouri before transferring to the Bay Area. Alongside the sharpshooter that sat out last season, Mike Montgomery will turn to incoming freshman Tyrone Wallace to help add depth to a solid but shallow rotation. Below we’ll take a look at these those who will be playing their first seasons in Berkeley, and gauge what type of impact they could have and what type of role they might play in their first year.

• Ricky Kreklow, Sophomore, Wing, 6’6” 220 lbs, Missouri – If there ever was a guy to fill in for the loss of Jorge Gutierrez, it’s Kreklow. And while those are big words, Kreklow proved he’s the right man for the job all of last season while practicing with the team. The best thing about Kreklow is his scrappiness. Rather than being a lock-down defender, Kreklow specializes in the type of pesky, “come up from behind and knock the ball lose” type of defense. And if that ball does come lose, you can bet that Kreklow will be the first one on the floor to get it. The wing/combo guard averaged 0.6 SPG while at Missouri, which is especially good considering that he only played an average of 9.8 MPG. However, Kreklow’s biggest contributions will come on the offensive end. He will play a similar role to the one that fellow guards Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs played in 2011-12, which kept opposing defenses from solely concentrating on Gutierrez. This season, Crabbe will step in to pick up the points that Jorge left behind, and Kreklow will have to prove himself as a viable threat from three-point range in order to free up Crabbe.

The Missouri Transfer’s Long Arms Should Annoy Pac-12 Guards All Season Long. (credit: Prker Eshelman)

• Tyrone Wallace, Freshman, Combo Guard, 6’4” 180 lbs, Bakersfield High School, Bakersfield, CA – After losing five guards since January of 2011 (Emerson Murray, Alex Rossi, Nigel Carter, and Gary Franklin transferred, Gutierrez graduated), Wallace will have to play a bigger role than originally thought in his first season with the Golden Bears. A point guard by trade, Wallace will likely see more minutes at wing in 2012-13 due to Rossi’s transfer to Valparaiso. That, and as “LeonPowe” of California Golden Blogs put it, “I think unless you’re Jason Kidd (or Derrick Rose or John Wall), point guard is a difficult place to be as a freshman.” Called by many to be an “opportunistic scorer”, the wing will be a good place for Wallace to gain Pac-12 experience as he comes off the bench. However, don’t rule out Wallace gaining solid minutes at the point, either. As it is with most incoming freshman, a good October of practicing with the team could show the coaching staff that he is ready immediately to leap Brandon Smith on the depth chart and backup Cobbs. Read the rest of this entry »

After a week’s worth of breaking down the Golden Bears, it is time to give a way-too-early preview as to their chances in 2012-13. With five newcomers, three of whom are expected to play very big roles, and five returnees who will carry an even bigger load than they did last season, there are plenty of questions whose answers will remain unknown until we get a chance to see this team in action. But, that doesn’t mean we can’t make predictions. Simulating basketball in our minds is the closest we’re going to get to the real thing until late October, so here we go.

Cal’s Leading Scorer – Allen Crabbe. The one-two punch of Crabbe and Justin Cobbs will have opposing defenses scrambling all night long. Cobbs can definitely score the ball, but the Bears are better with him distributing. With Cobbs dropping dimes to Crabbe, sharpshooting transfer Ricky Kreklow, and incoming freshman Tyrone Wallace, defenses will eventually be so preoccupied with the trio of shooting guards that they forget about the point guard. That’s when he can make his move. Similar to last season, this will be a team with balanced scoring. Crabbe, Cobbs, Kreklow, Kravish, and Solomon could all be averaging 8+ PPG by season’s end.

The Potential On This Year’s Roster Should Have Cal Fans Packing Haas Pavilion On A Regular Basis, Like On This Unknown Night When Jordan Farmar Is Attempting To Convert A Jumper Into The Teeth Of The Straw Hat Band. (credit: Arun Nevader)

Cal’s MVP – Justin Cobbs. Just as Cobbs could very well win the scoring title, Crabbe could very well be the team MVP. But we already named Crabbe as the leading scorer, and taking two titles is just plain selfish. If Cobbs can find that balance we were talking about above of taking only good shots and always looking to pass first, he will be by far the most important part of coach Mike Montgomery’ s offense. And as we all know, defense may win championships, but good offense wins MVP awards.

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For a team that made the NCAA Tournament in 2011-12, California’s extra scoring opportunities per game rate was quite low. The Golden Bears only averaged 1.9 ESOPG last season, which came in at 91st in the nation and sixth in the Pac-12. That’s not terrible, but it only converts to nearly four points per game, five if you throw a three in there. Take a team like VCU for example. The Rams averaged 7.7 ESOPG last season, meaning that they gained nearly 16 extra points a game if they had converted all of those (and that’s assuming all of the extra buckets came in the form of two-pointers). VCU finished the season with a record of 29-7, and 20 of those 29 wins were decided by 14 points or less. But the Rams earned all of those extra points, mainly because of the great work that coach Shaka Smart and company do stressing the importance of offensive rebounding.

h/t to TeamRankings for statistics

Allen Crabbe and Richard Solomon will be the key to those extra opportunities in 2012-13. Sophomore forward David Kravish was by far the leader among 2012-13 returnees in offensive rebounding, so he will serve as a catalyst for the other guys. Kravish averaged two ORPG last season, which is a good number, especially for a young and wiry freshman. But after him, things dropped considerably for the Golden Bears. If they can bring their extra scoring opportunities per game up to four, and convert three of those possessions a game for a total of say, seven points, it could be a very good year for Cal. The Bears lost five games by seven points or less in 2011-12, and if they could have won three of those their final regular season record would have been 27-6. Then, all of a sudden your Pac-12 champions are in the mix for top three NCAA seed, not playing in Dayton on the Wednesday before the Tournament even starts. While that may seem like a stretch, it can all be solved with just a few more offensive rebounds each game.

Of course, none of this is as easy as I’m making it sound. This will take an entire team effort, not just by the bigs and coaching staff. An important part of offensive rebounding is having your guards shoot the ball when your forwards and centers are in a position to get that rebound, not sitting on the wing or on top of the free throw line. While Crabbe and Justin Cobbs are great shooters, if they can make sure that their shots come in the rhythm of the offense, the Bears will see their offensive efficiency skyrocket.

Five different players who earned significant playing time in 2011-12 return for California. Despite losing the Pac-12 Defensive and Player of the Year and their top scorer in the post, the Golden Bears return a solid foundation that should lead them to a second straight NCAA Tournament and fifth consecutive postseason berth. Below we’ll take a look at those five players, in order of last season’s scoring average.

• Allen Crabbe, Junior, Wing (15.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG) – Out of California’s 34 games in 2011-12, Crabbe played 30+ minutes in 28 of them. The sophomore wing was a workhorse, consistently scoring in double digits (28 times in 34 games) and pulling down five or more rebounds a night (24 times). If you look at his stat sheet throughout the season, you will only find a few games in which Crabbe didn’t have a “good” night, according to his averages. And even in those three games, Cal won all three times by a combined 41 points, so he obviously knew when to take his off nights. Another sign of his consistency is in his numbers from his freshman to sophomore years – they barely change. Crabbe played a third of a minute more in 2011-12, scored 1.8 more points, pulled down 0.4 more rebounds, and 0.1 more assists and blocks. The only statistic that decreased was in the steals category – by 0.4. It’s kind of eerie in a way, but it is also a testament to how consistent Crabbe is. Mike Montgomery and staff have to like the fact that night in and night out, they know they are going to get a solid performance from him.

Crabbe’s Smooth Jumper Led The Golden Bears To The NCAA Tournament In 2011-12 (credit: Andy Wooldridge)

• Justin Cobbs, Junior, Point Guard (12.9 PPG, 5.0 APG, 41.3 3FG%) – Cobbs got off to just about as good a start as any transfer player can have. The sophomore point guard averaged 11 points in his first seven games, good enough to take Brandon Smith’s starting spot right out from underneath him. Cobb’s best game came right in the middle of a six-game winning streak for the Golden Bears, when he exploded for 28 points, eight assists, and four steals in a crucial 86-83 victory over Oregon. From a scoring and sharing the ball standpoint, Cobbs did an outstanding job in his sophomore year. As we progress through the summer and into the fall, the next step is for Cobbs to become a more vocal leader on the court. “He’ll have the ball in his hands a lot, so how he responds to Coach Montgomery will have a huge impact on team chemistry. He has a lot of potential, but it’s things like leadership, decision-making, body language, and consistency that are on the wish list,” says “Kodiak” of California Golden Blogs.

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California is coming off back-to-back seasons in which it hasn’t qualified for the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. For a team that is usually always in contention to win the Pac-12, this comes as somewhat of a disappointment to fans in Berkeley. In 2011-12, the Golden Bears looked like they were not only going to make the field of 64, but possibly make it out of the first weekend. Unfortunately, things went drastically wrong for the Bears down the stretch. Sophomore forward Richard Solomon contributed heavily on the glass in the first half of the season, but was lost as an academic casualty midway through January. This didn’t affect Cal immediately, but the strain put on Harper Kamp in the stretch run of the season would cost the Bears, who faced depth issues everywhere. “Over the past few years we’ve lost a lot of depth to transfers (or as an early pro in the case of Max Zhang) – so the players who would’ve been the sixth, seventh, and eighth men (Amandi Omoyke, DJ Seeley, and Zhang) are now playing for Cal State Fullerton or in China,” said “LeonPowe” of California Golden Blogs when RTC talked to him. California would finish its final five games with a record of 1-4, including an embarrassing, not as close as the final score indicated, 65-54 loss against South Florida in the First Four.

Mike Montgomery’s Team Seemed Headed In The Right Direction Going Into The Stretch Run In 2011-12, But A Poor Finish Resulted In A Less Than Favorable Draw In The NCAA Tournament. (credit: Mark J. Terrill)

As people around the program will tell you, however, the floundering finish was a long time in the making. Coach Mike Montgomery seemed to lose trust early in a couple of his players, most notably Brandon Smith. Due to the combination of a poor start by Smith and a hot one by transfer Justin Cobbs, Smith found himself buried on the bench. Even when the team’s top three shooter’s — Allen Crabbe, Jorge Gutierrez, and Cobbs — lost their touch late in the year, Monty decided to ride the sinking ship with them instead of going back into his bench. Smith only saw a combined 13 minutes of action in the final two games of the year, both 11-point losses. He is only one example, though. The already short bench was even shorter by year’s end, as Montgomery settled into a six-man rotation. Against athletic and quick defensive teams like Colorado and USF, the Bears never really had a chance to compete with those teams.

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Over the course of the next two weeks, the Pac-12 Microsite will break down each team’s season: what went well, what didn’t, and a look ahead at the future. Today’s subject: California.

What Went Wrong

Sophomore forward Richard Solomon was a key contributor when he was playing, but due to being suspended, injured, and then academically ineligible, Solomon only appeared in 13 games. His main contributions were on the glass, where he averaged 5.9 RPG, but he also added a not-too-shabby 5.6 PPG. The Golden Bears only lost two games with Solomon in uniform, and while that could very well be a useless stat, it should also be noted that the Bears dropped a game in each of Solomon’s brief absences early in the year. But besides the losses, his absence put more pressure on Harper Kamp on both sides of the ball, something Kamp did not handle well when facing bigger, talented teams like San Diego State, Arizona, and UNLV. Another big problem was the disappearance of junior guard Brandon Smith. A starter coming into the season, Smith was outperformed by Justin Cobbs in big games, which led to dwindling playing time and dwindling confidence. Smith only had six points and zero assists against Missouri early in the year, and after turning in a zero-point, two-assist performance against San Diego State, he completely fell off the map. Smith was needed the most late in the season as Cal’s shooting woes began, but by then he was buried deep on the bench and only played a combined 13 minutes in each of Cal’s final games, both 11-point losses.

Even Mike Montgomery had a tough time watching California's NCAA Tournament loss to South Florida. (credit: Doug Benc)

What Went Right

All three starters at guard could score consistently, with Cobbs, Jorge Gutierrez, and Allen Crabbe all averaging in double figures. The biggest (good) surprise of the season was the play of freshman forward David Kravish. Kravish immediately made a splash in the low post for the Golden Bears and would finish the season averaging 7.0 PPG and 5.7 RPG. He finished the season with nine games in which he scored in double-figures, but by playing in an already potent offense, his most important contributions would come on the glass. Kravish pulled down a monstrous 18 rebounds in Cal’s 75-49 win against USC to go with two other double-figure rebounding nights. Having your most consistent rebounder being just a freshman has the future looking bright for coach Mike Montgomery’s squad, especially at a position that the Bears haven’t always been very deep at the past few years.

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