ACC M5: 02.22.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on February 22nd, 2013

morning5_ACC

  1. RDU Blog: The Raleigh-Durham International Airport is in the process of “modernizing” Terminal 1. What is the first new restaurant listed? ACC American Cafe. The ACC is partnering with HMS Host to bring you “a range of farm-to-market dishes along with entrees inspired by the home cities of ACC teams.” So take that Big Ten! You may have a network, but the ACC has an overpriced restaurant in an airport! Really though, it’s hard to frame this story. What exactly is the ACC going for? Alternate revenue streams, visibility, a spark of creativity? There are some questions without an answer.
  2. Raleigh News & Observer: Despite his college success, Sean May never really fit into the NBA, but now he and fellow Tar Heel teammate Jawad Williams are getting the cure for their professional basketball itch in France. The two are making good money (the best in their league) and get to be centerpieces — like in college — rather than afterthoughts in the NBA. They seem to be enjoying each other’s company and the team regardless of replacing chartered flights with cramped bus rides. I’m really not doing the article enough credit.
  3. Syracuse Post-Gazette: Syracuse may not be in the ACC just yet, but Tyler Cavanaugh did some serious trolling on the Orange’s indirect behalf after his trip to Boston College. Needless to say, he wasn’t impressed. Describing the student section, he said, “I’d say maybe 20 [students]. It was kinda dead. There was really no energy in the arena. As far as the atmosphere, this was the worst place we’d seen.” Call it the bitterness of a close game lost or some childhood biases resurfacing, but Cavanaugh gets feisty for his post card.
  4. BC Interruption: Speaking of Boston College, the Eagles actually are starting to look like they’re in decent shape for the future, after Steve Donahue found a diamond in the rough in Olivier Hanlan (to go with fellow DITR Dennis Clifford). Hanlan is one of the most exciting players to watch in the conference. There still aren’t enough pieces surrounding him, but he seems to improve with each game instead of running into the wall. If the training staff in Chestnut Hill can find a way to manage Clifford’s injury, Boston College could find itself middle of the pack.
  5. Richmond Daily Progress: I’m not sure why Jerry Ratliffe thinks CJ Leslie will be in the conversation for first-team All-ACC so far, much less conference Player of the Year. Leslie has been his normal, mercurial self all season. He’s balanced his excellence with a decent dose of mediocrity (or disappearance) like many worried he would. Erick Green, Mason Plumlee and Shane Larkin are virtual locks for the first team with Kenny Kadji and Michael Snaer (on clutchness alone) nipping at their heels. There’s still plenty of basketball to be played though, so don’t count anyone out just yet.
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Considering the Duke Hangover Effect: Fact or Fiction?

Posted by EMann on February 21st, 2013

In a series of events that seems almost predetermined, Maryland, fresh off a signature win against Duke (in what could be the last game in this rivalry played in College Park) and now finding itself either squarely off the bubble or in the Tournament, went out and dropped its next game at lowly Boston College. The Wall Street Journal has already written about how beating Duke has merited a court rushing (“including this season, in 27 out of Duke’s 33 losses in true road games [the last ten years], the fans have rushed the court”). There hasn’t been as much focus on what happens to these teams after getting their “signature win” over the Blue Devils. Beginning in the 2007-08 season, teams not named UNC are under .500 in their next game after beating Duke. Yes, it is a small sample size, but it is worth taking a closer look at this phenomenon.

Maryland won at Duke, but followed it up with losing at Boston College.  The Duke Hangover at work (Yahoo Sports)

Maryland beat Duke, but followed it up with losing at Boston College. The Duke Hangover at work (Yahoo Sports)

Here is just one example of this “Duke hangover”: Feb. 26th, 2011 – Virginia Tech upset top-ranked Duke, 64-60, and looked prime to clinch an NCAA Tournament berth. However, the Hokies lost their final two regular season games (at home against a BC team that did not make the NCAAs, and at a Clemson team that barely did) to finish 19-10 (9-7 ACC), and after bowing out in the ACC semis to Duke, found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.

I went through the ACC data from the 2003 season onward to determine just how often teams lost its next game after playing Duke. Teams who lost their next game after playing Duke are bolded below. Teams who made the NCAA Tournament are italicized, with their seed and round they lost in listed for reference. I mentioned the ACC Tournament only in the years in which Duke did not win (2004, 2007, 2008, and 2012).

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ACC M5: 02.21.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on February 21st, 2013

morning5_ACC

  1. Fox Sports: I would’ve said the ACC Player of the Year race was a dead heat as late as last week. But as long as Miami keeps dominating the league (even by low margins of victory), I’m starting to think Shane Larkin holds the best card. Barring some outrageous performances to close out the season (and at least one marquee win) Erick Green should be done. It may not be fair, but life isn’t fair. Mason Plumlee has a very good shot at the award too — assuming he bounces back to form after struggling against Maryland and looks good against Miami (a Duke win against Miami next Saturday would turn the tables somewhat). But Larkin is the most important player on the conference’s best team. At a minimum, he and Kenny Kadji are first-teamers.
  2. Orlando Sentinel: Great news out of Tallahassee, as Terrance Shannon has been cleared for no-contact practice. Shannon suffered a nasty neck injury early in conference play at Virginia. He had to be carted off the court in one of the scarier moments of the season. Apparently, Shannon sought a second opinion and will be back much sooner than expected. Assuming the rest of his rehabilitation goes according to schedule, it’s possible he’ll be back before the end of the season. Shannon adds tons of energy and toughness to a young Florida State front line.
  3. Duke Basketball Report: Every year there’s a team in the ACC (usually one in the lower tier) that plays more than its fair share of close games. This year three of the league’s bottom five teams are struggling to win the close ones. Just in conference games alone, Boston College, Clemson and Georgia Tech are a combined 4-15 in games decided by five points or fewer. Meanwhile, all of Florida State’s conference wins have been by five points or fewer (thank Michael Snaer for that 6-1 record in close games), while close games are a coin flip for Wake Forest and NC State. Miami is the only team unblemished in close games with a 4-0 record, although the Hurricanes have been flirting with disaster recently.
  4. Washington Post: That sound was Maryland falling back to the wrong side of the bubble after a brutal letdown loss at Boston College following its emotional upset win against Duke. Want to know what this Maryland team is starting to look dangerously like? A worse version of 2010-11 Virginia Tech. Ugly non-conference resume with no quality wins? Check. Talented roster shaped largely around two dynamic players but with a fatal flaw? Check (the Hokies couldn’t shoot; Maryland can’t hold onto the basketball). Huge upset win over Duke that boosted NCAA hopes dramatically immediately followed by a soul-crushing loss to Boston College? Check. NIT? Yes and to be determined.
  5. Kansas City Star: The details of Frank Haith‘s notice of allegations were released by Missouri. The reported “unethical conduct” charge was dropped to “failure to monitor” (which is far less severe). The big charge levied against Haith is that he failed to notify the athletic department of Nevin Shapiro’s instability and gave money to an assistant to pass along to the renegade booster. With the NCAA’s recent struggles, it’s hard to see Haith’s punishment with much teeth. If the NCAA does try to get medieval, expect him to fight back and potentially get a settlement. A suspension of some kind is the most likely punishment.
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The New Look Tar Heels Are Slowly Finding Their Way

Posted by BHayes on February 20th, 2013

Bennet Hayes is a regular contributor for RTC. You can find him @HoopsTraveler on Twitter. He filed this report from Tuesday’s game in Atlanta between Georgia Tech and North Carolina.

While we are not looking at our daddy’s Miami Hurricanes this season, it was only 10 days ago that a 26-point UNC loss in Coral Gables seemed to indicate that we also weren’t seeing a very familiar UNC team this year. It was not the first time that these Heels found themselves on the wrong side of a lopsided scoreboard (far from it, really), and with a visit to Cameron Indoor Stadium lurking next, head coach Roy Williams decided that something needed to change. Williams inserted wing PJ Hairston into the starting lineup at the four, giving the starting five a smaller, more explosive look. Immediate results were good, as Hairston went for 23 points in a close loss in Durham before erupting for a career-high 29 in a weekend victory over Virginia. Tuesday night’s match-up with Georgia Tech featured little in the way of Hairston fireworks, but another UNC victory serves as more proof that Roy may be on to something with his new, smaller approach.

P.J. Hairston, North Carolina

PJ Hairston’s Insertion Into The Starting Lineup Makes For A More Explosive Carolina Team (Getty Images)

Hairston may be the player most dramatically affected by the revamped lineup – and his post defense did little to dismiss this notion – but James Michael McAdoo has also been forced to play slightly out of position at the five. There will be nights down the road where McAdoo will be more tested in his own paint, but on this evening he was a terror everywhere else on the defensive end, jumping into passing lanes and fueling a relentless UNC transition attack. The Tar Heels collected 14 steals (McAdoo leading the way with four) and forced a young Tech team into 19 turnovers, a total that ended up far too high for Brian Gregory’s team to have any chance of keeping close to Carolina.

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Maryland: The Most Confusing Team in the ACC Could Still Be a Problem in March

Posted by Jimmy Kelley on February 20th, 2013

Jimmy Kelley is an ACC correspondent for Rush the Court. Follow him on Twitter @DevilsInDurham

At one point during Maryland’s 83-81 win over Duke on Saturday, the Terps looked like a team that could do no wrong. Throughout their 68-59 loss to Boston College on Tuesday it looked like they could do no right. In a microcosm of Maryland’s season, the Terps followed up what should have been their signature win with what will be pointed to by the bracket experts as a signature loss. However, despite the disappointing result on Tuesday night, Maryland still has all of the tools to make life difficult for teams like Miami, NC State, and Virginia in the upcoming ACC Tournament.

Alex Len, Maryland

Alex Len (right) and Shaquille Cleare (left) are two of the reasons why Maryland could be a tough out this postseason (AP Photo)

We hear the same story every year: Guard play wins games in March. With that in mind, Maryland sounds like a team built to make life tough on a better team when the games start to count a little more. Seth Allen had one of his best games in conference play on Saturday and Dez Wells helped keep Maryland on top with his efforts in getting to the line. But despite how good the duo looked in stretches, they still managed to turn the ball over 14 times between them, with seven of those miscues coming in the final five minutes when Duke battled back to tie the game. For Maryland to make any sort of run in March their guards will need to play more like they did while building the lead than they did in the last five minutes.

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ACC M5: 02.20.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on February 20th, 2013

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  1. Miami Herald: Massive news out of Coral Gables, as Miami received its notice of allegations from the NCAA, just days following the conclusion to the NCAA’s investigation of itself (that included firing an up-and-coming executive). Despite throwing out nearly a fifth of its evidence, the NCAA still went after the dreaded “lack of institutional control.” Apparently Miami asked to meet with the NCAA’s Committee of Infractions this weekend, which tells me they’re not interested in doing any soul-searching. Relatedly, unlike a previous report stated, Frank Haith was not alleged to have committed unethical conduct. More from Miami’s side of the story below.
  2. Miami Herald: While it was in the article above, I didn’t want you to miss this. So here’s Donna Shalala, Miami’s president, taking a war club to the NCAA in her statement on receiving the notice of allegations. The statement is an evisceration. Miami and Shalala mean business.

    The NCAA enforcement staff acknowledged to the University that if Nevin Shapiro, a convicted con man, said something more than once, it considered the allegation “corroborated”—an argument which is both ludicrous and counter to legal practice. […] Finally, we believe the NCAA was responsible for damaging leaks of unsubstantiated allegations over the course of the investigation. […] We trust that the Committee on Infractions will provide the fairness and integrity missing during the investigative process.

    This is going to be big and it’s going to be ugly. At this point — barring the NCAA backing down in a big way — I’d be shocked if this didn’t end up in court. And Shalala isn’t someone you want to mess with.

  3. Baltimore Sun: Speaking of things bound to get ugly that are already in court, a North Carolina judge denied Maryland‘s motion that the ACC’s suit over the conference exit fee is invalid. Basically, the easy way out has been closed. Now Maryland has to decide whether to try and settle — the most likely outcome — despite the ACC holding the cards, or keep fighting the suit. Regardless, a lot of money will no doubt change hands.
  4. Wilmington Star News: Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams aren’t usually thought of as coaching award candidates unless their teams are doing what Miami is currently doing in ACC play. But this year both coaches faced a challenge. Krzyzewski got hit with another injury to arguably the team’s second most important player (along with a nagging injury to the third). Despite Duke’s three losses since Ryan Kelly went down with injury, the Blue Devils have generally held their own. There aren’t many coaches in the country with the ability to alter their style mid-season as seamlessly as Krzyzewski. On the other end of Tobacco Road, Williams also is experimenting with minor changes in his system — namely, playing small ball. It’s a moot point (Jim Larranaga will win the award this year), but don’t overlook good coaching because there’s ample talent to be coached.
  5. Basketball Prospectus: Another man doing some serious coaching is Tony Bennett, whose team has thus far edged out Duke for runner-up in conference efficiency. Miami leads the way — and it’s not really close — thanks to the Hurricanes’ stifling defense. There’s a really big drop-off after Virginia and Duke. The ACC could have two Final Four caliber teams when all is said and done if Kelly returns from his injury long enough before the postseason to be reintegrated at Duke. Miami’s proved its worth in conference play; Duke proved its in non-conference play. The battle next Saturday should be epic regardless.
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ACC M5: 02.19.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on February 19th, 2013

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  1. AP (via USA Today): Sometimes punchlines just write themselves. Apparently Sidney Lowe is in some hot water for not submitting federal tax returns for three straight years as NC State coach, which begs the question as to exactly how he thought that would fly. Filing tax returns shouldn’t be new, and there’s not a known history of Lowe evading taxes before he got to Raleigh, so this story is more than a little strange. I’d expect this to be resolved sooner rather than later, but it’s still an odd way for the former Wolfpack great turned less-than-mediocre coach to resurface in the headlines.
  2. Tallahassee Democrat: Anyone who’s watched Michael Snaer play over the past four years knows his best asset is his competitiveness. It’s also his curse. There’s a reason Leonard Hamilton often takes Snaer out early in the first half. He can get too jacked up on the energy in the game and start to force things. That used to happen a lot. It still happens sometimes, especially when teammates aren’t playing up to their abilities or a big call goes the wrong way. But Snaer’s gotten a lot better at playing within Florida State’s offense this season. He’s never going to be consistently levelheaded, but there’s also a reason he’s hit more ACC buzzer-beaters than anyone in recent memory.
  3. Raleigh News & Observer: Joe Giglio laid some reality on NC State fans, specifically the ones who think that the Wolfpack are still Final Four contenders. The last 10 ACC teams to reach the final weekend all finished league play with a margin of victory of greater than 10 points (unrelatedly, RPI-praisers should take note here, as it’s probably not a coincidence that margin of victory is related to NCAA success). Currently, NC State’s margin of victory sits right at 6.1 points a game and the squad has only one won game by double figures. That’s not elite.
  4. Winston-Salem Journal: It wouldn’t be ACC coverage without some talk of officiating (and a little hint of bias). The only thing missing from this article is the context surrounding the calls. One, a technical called against Jeff Bzdelik after a no-call on Kammeon Holsey (Wake lost by one); the other, a technical not called against Steve Wojciechowski after a blatantly missed double-dribble going into the half. The first was actually far more influential (a four-point swing in a very close game); the second turned out not to be. But it’s interesting the different amount of latitude that different coaches are afforded. However, not knowing exactly what was said (there are supposed to be “magic words” that will earn technicals if directed at officials), it’s hard to be too harsh on Brian Kersey.
  5. Testudo Times: Pe’Shon Howard is back after his indefinite (one-game) suspension. But after Howard’s suspension led to an upset over Duke, how much time will he actually see going forward? That remains to be seen. It’s valid to point out that Howard likely would’ve disrupted Maryland’s already choppy (thanks to a merciless number of turnovers) but effective offensive rhythm. But he’s also got more experience, which holds some value too. If he can find his jump shot — which is probably unlikely at this point — he’ll be an asset to Maryland. If not, Mark Turgeon should think about using him as a sub to spell Seth Allen and Dez Wells in very specific situations.

EXTRA: Somehow Holden Thorp managed to parlay his athletic and academic scandals into a great gig at Washington University in Saint Louis. I’m sure leaving his alma mater is still tough, but this sweet new job has got to make things feel a lot better.

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Lessons Learned: ACC Weekend Wrap-Up

Posted by KCarpenter on February 18th, 2013

It was a good weekend for basketball fans in the ACC though fans of individual teams may be feeling more ambivalent. Of the six games this weekend, all but one of them had a final margin of four points or less. In fact, if North Carolina State hadn’t managed a four-point overtime win, all but one of the games this weekend would have had a final score where the outcome was within one possession.  Even the single game that wasn’t close had its own fascinating subplot and March ramifications. It was a good weekend for close games, but did we learn anything?

  1. Duke Is Fouling Too Much. On the season, Duke has been fouling opponents at a nice and low rate, posting and opponent free throw attempted to field goal attempted ratio of 30.5%. In conference, however, Duke has jumped in this metric to 36.4%. Amazingly, like many of Duke’s problems, this rise can probably be accredited to the injury of Ryan Kelly. Kelly’s replacements foul at a very high rate while still allowing a conference-worst 49.5% shooting from inside the arc. Physical defense that prevents easy buckets can sometimes be used to excuse high fouling rates, but Duke’s interior is offering up the worst of both worlds. On Saturday, Duke forced 26 turnovers against Maryland and shot nearly 50% and the Terrapins still won.
  2. Marcus Georges-Hunt Belongs On The ACC All-Freshmen Team. There are probably three sure-fire picks on the ACC All-Freshman Team: TJ Warren, Olivier Hanlan, and Rasheed Sulaimon. Those three have all proven to be valuable contributors to their respective teams. With apologies to Daniel Miller, Georges-Hunt often looks like the best player on his Georgia Tech team. Against Wake Forest,  Georges-Hunt scored a game-high 16 points including many critical buckets down the stretch to lead the Yellow Jackets to victory. With the exception of Hanlan, few freshmen are as critical to their team’s success as he is to Georgia Tech. Read the rest of this entry »
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ACC M5: 02.18.13 Edition

Posted by mpatton on February 18th, 2013

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  1. Raleigh News & Observer: When Caulton Tudor drops a story, it’s good to make a point to listen to him. His three anecdotes in this piece don’t have any special significance but are a cool look back at recent and less recent college basketball history on Tobacco Road. He marvels at Christian Laettner (and his competitiveness against Shaquille O’Neal), Jim Valvano and Roy Williams in stories dating from three different decades. Stories like this are why Tudor will be missed after his retirement.
  2. Testudo Times: Maryland got the marquee win it desperately needed, providing more evidence about Duke’s horrible interior defense without Ryan Kelly along the way. Despite 25 turnovers (!) the Terrapins were led by Alex Len‘s evisceration of Mason Plumlee to a close victory that should prove very helpful on Selection Sunday. Duke’s excuse will be that it was the team’s third game in six days, but it was a team that got smacked in the mouth by the atmosphere at College Park and could never get any offensive flow together because of its poor defense. After the game, Mark Turgeon had some very interesting comments that placed the game at incredible importance to he and his family (who apparently had to leave game last week because fans were being so crude).
  3. D1scourse: Patrick Stevens took a look at the lowest scoring ACC games in the shot clock era after MiamiClemson set a new low over the weekend at 45-43. Between 1985-86 and 2009-10, there were three games where neither team reached 50 points (two coming thanks to a 1986 Wake Forest team that went 0-14 in conference play and didn’t top the half-century mark five times). Since 2010-11 there have been five such games. People will probably read into this (extraordinarily interesting) stat and decry the recent down years in the ACC. But this trend, if you can call it that, comes down to new coaches — specifically Brad Brownell and Tony Bennett — with a little help from two very defensive minded teams (Florida State and Virginia Tech) last year.
  4. Shakin the Southland: This is a pretty thoughtful support of Clemson head coach Brad Brownell. One interesting thing is the harshness with which the author looks at Devin Booker and Milton Jennings. Both probably deserve the frustration, as they have rarely lived up to their talent (especially Jennings), but Booker in particular has kept Clemson reasonably close on his own in many games this year. Specifically, the article parallels Clemson and Virginia, tracking Brownell and Bennett in the process. Bennett has definitely had his share of success this year but don’t discount a very generous conference schedule. If (and it’s a big if) Brownell can consistently recruit ACC-caliber players, he’s a strong enough coach to win.
  5. Wilmington Star-News: On the heels of Ken Pomeroy’s surprising find that more teams lose when committing a foul up three with between five and 12 seconds left on the game clock, NC State found itself in that exact situation over the weekend. Conventional wisdom says that the team should foul, but the opportunity for an offensive rebound on a missed free throw probably pushes the needle the other way. Virginia Tech ran arguably the coolest set play of the year (it was illegal but still…) to get a tip-in from Jarell Eddie to tie everything up before losing by four in overtime. I think Mark Gottfried made the right choice considering his team’s obvious three-point defensive struggles.
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An ACC Bubble Battle: North Carolina Fails to Defend, Still Wins

Posted by KCarpenter on February 17th, 2013

Kellen Carpenter is an RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Saturday’s game between North Carolina and Virginia in Chapel Hill.

When media members participated in the mock NCAA tournament selection panel, Virginia found itself on just the right side of the bubble, picked to play one of the “First Four” match-ups for one of the last at-large seeds. North Carolina, on the other hand, found itself on the outside looking in. Obviously, no one should draw too much from a fake committee making selections for a hypothetical Tournament, but the bracket that this group managed to draw up reflects the prevailing thought about both team’s NCAA chances: Each team is squarely on the bubble and, at least on Friday afternoon, it seemed like Virginia was the better team.

UVA

UVA Found Its Way to the Basket But Still Lost the Game

It will be interesting to see how Saturday’s result, a UNC victory, will influence the real committee. The Cavaliers shot a blistering 58.5% from the field and 57.1% from beyond the arc, with Joe Harris scoring 27 points from all over the court. Yet somehow, North Carolina won this game, and the manner of victory signals an interesting transition for this team’s identity. The Tar Heels won at the free throw line, and while that phrase has been written countless times, there has been little occasion to use it this season. Roy Williams‘ offensive philosophy has historically been largely based around getting his team to the free throw line at a very high clip. Yet this season, his team gets to the line with somewhat dramatic infrequency. The Tar Heels’ free throw rate this season is only 28.5%, good for 331st in the nation — the worst a Roy Williams-led North Carolina team has ever performed in this category. His second-worst season by this measure was last year, where UNC still managed to put up an above average 37.3% rate. In this game against Virginia, the team started to look more like the UNC teams of the past decade. North Carolina went to the line 30 times and converted on 22 attempts from the line. It was a surprising change from the way the team has played for most of the season.

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