Though North Carolina State slumped into the ACC tournament in a season that saw the Wolfpack fall short of admittedly lofty expectations, in the conference tourney the team was able to demonstrate some of the potential that led many to believe this team was an easy favorite for the regular season conference title. Strong performances over Virginia Tech and Virginia set a tone for what this team could be in the Big Dance, and a loss to Miami in the tournament semi-finals is hardly something to lose too much sleep over.

In some ways, facing Temple is a bit like NC State facing itself. Like the Wolfpack, Temple looked very strong earlier in the year but struggled in conference play before mostly righting the ship late. Both teams have a potent offense and a defense that often seems indifferent at times. Yet in the team’s differences, we may have the keys to the game. There are two main ways to win a game: shoot better than the other team or shoot more than the other team. Against NC State, it seems likely that Temple will shoot more.

CJ Leslie and NC State come into its second round contest against Temple as the favorites. (AP)

A lot of the offensive efficiency of the Temple Owls is due to the great care that the team takes with the ball. The Owls turn the ball over on only 16.2% of possessions, which is the 9th best rate in the country. Couple that with the indifference of the Wolfpack to forcing turnovers (outside of Lorenzo Brown‘s individual brilliance) and it looks like Temple has an inside track to gaining a few extra possessions through ball control. Against many foes, NC State has been able to offset discrepancies in turnovers with excellence in offensive rebounding, but Temple may have an antidote to Richard Howell‘s relentless attack on the glass. Anthony Lee has consistently been one of the best defensive rebounders in college basketball all season, and though he likely won’t be able to keep Howell boxed out on every carom, he certainly seems equipped to have a better chance than most. It seems fairly likely that the Owls will end up with a few more shot attempts than the Wolfpack.

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There are, theoretically, lots of ways that a team can get upset.  In practice, the formula for a big upset tends to have a few common recurring elements that appear with a sort of frequency that would make James Frazer proud. Upset-minded teams typically play at a slow tempo, make a lot of threes, rarely commit turnovers, and have a veteran coach and players. The good news for Pacific University is that it looks a lot like a team capable of an upset.

Will Miami Survive the Upset-Minded Tigers? (photo: Getty Images)

Pacific plays at the 285th fastest speed in Division I and as a team makes 39.1% of three-pointers (12th best nationally!).  A turnover percentage of 17.7% ranks in the top 50 in the country and veteran Bob Thomason coaches a team loaded with juniors and seniors. Thomason has coached at Pacific since 1988 and has previously led his teams to NCAA Tournament wins over Pittsburgh and Providence. Even more important (at least for the narrative-minded), Thomason has announced that this will be his final year coaching, and that after 25 years, he will be hanging up his whistle after this tournament. It sounds like a perfect storm of circumstances for a team to overachieve and give their coach one last hurrah. So does Pacific have what it takes to beat Miami?

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After the shocking loss to Lehigh last tournament, it seems unlikely that Duke will ever overlook a no. 15 seed again. Yet, looking at Albany‘s body of work; no one would blame the Blue Devils for looking a little bit ahead. Albany is not Lehigh. Lehigh was ridiculously underseeded at 15 and featured two top caliber players, one of whom, C.J. McCollum will probably play in the NBA. Duke was missing Ryan Kelly, and, in general seemed to be faltering at the end of this season. Meanwhile, this season, there is little to indicate that Albany is mis-seeded and Duke finished the regular season healthy and on a strong note. Still, for the sake of argument, if Albany were to somehow beat Duke, how would they do it?

Duke and Kelly Are Unlikely to Drop Another NCAA Opener (Lance King)

Duke’s one big weakness all season has been rebounding and the Great Danes have actually been pretty good on that front, particularly in terms of defensive rebounding, though Albany easily outpaces Duke’s offensive rebounding mark as well. The big caveat here is the caliber of competition that Albany has been beating on the glass: dominating the America East Conference on the boards is a little simpler than doing the same in the ACC. Yet, it bears mentioning that tempo-free rebounding measures tend to be remarkably stable even when the level of competition changes. As strange as it is to say, it’s quite possible that the Great Danes could own the boards against Duke.

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1. ACC Sports Journal: ACC Sports Journal‘s Wake Forest Insider wrote the most comprehensive article on Ron Wellman and Jeff Bzdelik‘s tenure at Wake Forest that I’ve ever read. It also might be the best article I’ve read all year. The depth and knowledge the author shows is remarkable. It’s the remarkable long read where the structure of the article furthers the reader’s understanding. Before reading the article I had a totally different (and ignorant) perspective on Bzdelik’s future. There couldn’t be a better advertisement for ACC Sports Journal‘s  premium coverage. Bravo.
2. Miami Herald: Ignoring every instinct to post the above article four more times, this article from Michelle Kaufman adds some depth to Miami‘s most surprising contributor this year–Julian Gamble. After Miami’s victory over North Carolina, Gamble charged for the stands to meet his mother and nephew. Gamble’s story is a unique one: his mother quit her job when to take care of her college-aged daughter’s newborn child (who had not one but two devastating conditions), pride be damned. Gamble grew up the father figure for his sick nephew, who helps drive him to succeed.
3. Wilmington Star News: Marcus Paige‘s recent development is a big part of why North Carolina is a hot upset pick in its potential Round of 32 game against Kansas. Paige, one of the best interviews in the ACC, told Brett Friedlander that he expected the comparisons to Kendall Marshall to come because he and Marshall are both left-handed point guards. He also noted, “I’m sure me picking his number didn’t help stop them.” Paige is a totally different player than Marshall. He’s more of an offensive threat and the new smaller line-up leaves more space in the lane for him to attack and kick the ball out to shooters or dump it in to James Michael McAdoo. Regardless of the Tar Heels’s NCAA Tournament success this year, Paige looks to be a very solid point guard for years to come in Chapel Hill.
4. Chicago Tribune: It looks like the two favorites for the open Northwestern job are Chris Collins and Bryce Drew, but both have obvious holes in their resumes. Collins, obviously, has never held a head coaching position (though he certainly holds a very involved role as an assistant at Duke). Drew only has two years of experience on him, and that experience is in the Horizon League. The big question isn’t whether Northwestern is interested: it’s whether Collins and/or Drew are. The benefits of Northwestern are obvious. It’s a head coaching gig in the Big Ten. The cons are that no one has had success there. That means a low bar, but it also means tough sledding.
5. Orlando Sun-Sentinel: Speaking of players really improving this year for Miami, don’t overlook Durand Scott. He was uber-talented as a freshman but something was missing. Apparently, Scott slept through an entire day–missing everything from class to practice–which led his teammates to name him “shutter island”. Now his effort defines his play, as he’s become the Hurricanes’s go-to defensive stopper. It’s a pretty remarkable change from the past couple of seasons.

EXTRA: Roy Williams left Kansas fans with a bad taste in their mouths when he left for North Carolina (though it shouldn’t have been too bad, considering they turned around and hired Bill Self). But his love for the Jayhawks is still very real. They gave him his shot and he put in 15 years taking that program to the penultimate level. Who knows what his reception will be this year in Kansas City, but time heals all wounds (last year’s Elite Eight victory probably helps too).

An aside: This is real satire. Take note Yes! Weekly.

1. CBSSports.com: Potentially huge news dropping from Dennis Dodd Wednesday, as he reports that the NCAA has notified Syracuse of an ongoing investigation into the Orange basketball program. The NCAA wouldn’t comment, but if Dodd’s source is correct this could be big: “Throw a dart at the [NCAA] Manual [and you would hit a violation by Syracuse].” Jim Boeheim swept aside the allegations with his usual surliness, but this definitely brings back his recent insinuations of a nearing retirement.
2. Raleigh News & Observer: It’s a few days old at this point, but Andrew Carter’s look at fouls in the ACC is worth your time. He reviewed foul discrepancies among different teams, but primarily focused on the overall decrease in fouls called over the last 12 years. Unsurprisingly Duke and North Carolina lead the ACC in foul differential. A popular conspiracy is that this shows the league’s bias toward the two powerhouse programs, but bias doesn’t have to be intentional: better teams are often awarded the benefit of the doubt (reputations go a long way with 50/50 calls), and, in some cases, they can deserve it. The more interesting part of Carter’s article is about the overall decline in fouls called, decreasing from 20.0 fouls a game (per team) in 2000-01 to only 16.8 fouls a game this season. The game is much more physical now and, for better or for worse, the overall game is much different because of it.
3. Baltimore Sun: A big problem in the NIT can be getting teams hyped for the games. This is especially true for the top seeds, like Maryland or Virginia, where getting excited about not making the NCAA Tournament is a lot to ask from its players. But Maryland’s guys — at least Dez Well and Charles Mitchell — appear to be out for a championship. One interesting side effect to watch is how Maryland’s fans respond. While they didn’t show up in droves for the Niagara game, if this team makes its purpose to win the NIT, it can definitely energize the fan base. Also, no matter what the stage, winning a postseason tournament is an impressive feat that will prepare the younger Terrapins well going forward.
4. Durham Herald-Sun: The last couple of weeks Rasheed Sulaimon has come off the bench for Duke in favor of Tyler Thornton. It appeared Sulaimon had hit the infamous freshman wall and his struggling shot was starting to affect his defense too. But after an excellent first half against Maryland — really, he was the only really effective Duke player for the first 20 minutes (Plumlee wasn’t bad) — Mike Krzyzewski is giving him the starting spot back. Ironically the move comes after the loss to Maryland; it was a loss where Coach K stuck to his guns and started Thornton again in the second half, not playing Sulaimon in the first five minutes. But as Duke’s most athletic wing, Sulaimon can shoot or get to the rim. He’ll be crucial for that point where Duke inevitably runs into an athletic backcourt in the next couple of weeks.
5. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech will be taking Maryland’s spot in the Barclays Center Classic this fall. This was the tournament’s first year, headlined by Kentucky’s close win over Maryland way back on November 9. Next November, the Yellow Jackets will join Penn State, Ole Miss and St. John’s in the new Brooklyn arena. While trending upwards, Brian Gregory’s team will be in for a challenge (but a winnable one) early in the season — especially if it draws St. John’s, who will likely have the NYC-area crowd on its side.

EXTRA: I don’t like to do this, but this article is worthy of some ridicule. I’m hoping it’s a subtle trolling of Triangle teams from Triad-based Yes Weekly, but Brian Clarey’s piece is cringe-worthy. First he insults NC State fans: “The NC State University Wolfpack acts as an outlier in this equation, generating a solid coalition of fans but not nearly the degree of passion evoked by the Tobacco Road rivalry.” That has to be sarcastic trolling, right? Then he goes after Duke with buzzwords of “elitism”, “privilege”, and “favoritism” before closing metaphorically by likening the university (and its basketball team) to a “trust-fund baby.” Finally, he touches on North Carolina’s recent academic scandal before launching into actual coverage of the ACC Tournament. Bravo?

The cases for Virginia and Maryland were always tough to make. Both teams were able to hang their hats on seriously good wins, yet both also had some of the ugliest losses on the bubble. That these two teams found themselves on the wrong side looking in Sunday evening isn’t all too surprising. Yet, they move on. Along with Florida State, these ACC teams are set to play in that other national tournament, starting this evening. So if the First Four match-ups aren’t to your taste, there is some fine basketball scheduled for the NIT involving ACC teams tonight.

Virginia and Maryland Have a Shot at Another Tussle in the NIT

Niagara at Maryland at 7:00 PM

Maryland got a # 2 seed in the NIT and drew a team that won its conference regular season but flopped in the conference tournament. The MAAC’s Niagara is a run-and-gun team that makes up for it’s relatively pedestrian team three-point shooting with skilled ball-handlers who rarely turn the ball over. T.J. Cline is usually the biggest man on the court for Niagara, and he measures out at only 6’8″. However, like the rest of the team, he is a gleeful participant in the perimeter-based attack and has attempted 112 threes this season (leading his team with a 33.9% mark). On the defensive end, the team is effective at forcing turnovers, critical considering Maryland’s difficulty in hanging on to the ball. Of course where Niagara has a fast, agile attack, Maryland has size. No one on the roster can match up with 7’1″ Alex Len, and the trouble that Niagara has in terms of rebounding is a serious problem against an elite offensive rebounding team like Maryland. If the Purple Eagles can scramble and keep forcing turnovers on the defensive end while getting open perimeter looks (Maryland has done a good job contesting threes all season), Niagara has a shot at the upset. Without this, however, Alex Len is well-equipped to dominate this game on both ends.

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After clinching the ACC Tournament title with three straight double-digit wins, Miami was riding high. The media present in Greensboro — including myself — were riding a similar high after watching one of the best offensive basketball games of the year. It felt like a slap in the face to watch as the seeds were announced and the Hurricanes weren’t rewarded for their efforts with a #1 seed. It was the first time in history that the consensus ACC champion failed to earn a spot on top of a region.

Miami’s Eye Test couldn’t overcome its losses Selection Sunday. (Photo: Robert Mayer / USA TODAY Sports)

In Miami’s case, admittedly, a #1 seed was an uphill battle thanks to several bad losses in the non-conference and down the stretch in ACC play. First there was Miami’s game (without suspended Durand Scott) at Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are dancing this week, but only because of the Atlantic Sun’s automatic bid. Then Miami lost neutral-site games to Arizona and Indiana State when the team was very banged up. After the win Sunday, Jim Larranaga documented the injuries plaguing his team in Hawaii: “Trey McKinney-Jones was in the hospital with a 105-degree temperature, Durand Scott‘s back tightened up on the trip — he couldn’t bend over, Shane Larkin tweaked his ankle, and Reggie Johnson broke his thumb.”

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1. Facebook: If you haven’t seen this, it’s really cool. Facebook put together a county-by-county map of college basketball fans by conference, by team (in each region), and by rivalry. The caveat is that it only includes teams that made the NCAA Tournament. That means two regular powerhouses –Kentucky and Texas — weren’t included. But the maps make it very clear that North Carolina and Duke are the two dominant national brands in the Big Dance this year (I expect Kentucky would join them if they weren’t NITing it). The ACC owns a huge portion of the country — including much of the west, Alaska, Hawaii and Big East country (minus Kentucky and upstate New York). It’s also amazing to see just how regional NC State’s pull is (a couple tiny counties in Virginia and South Carolina are the only ones repping the Wolfpack out of the state). My only wish is that Facebook had a better visualization because otherwise this is gold.
2. Awful Announcing, NY Daily News, LA Times: Don’t fret NC State fans — pick your poison. ESPN released its newest addition to the 30 for 30 series with a profile of the 1983 NC State national championship team, Survive and Advance. The documentary has gotten nothing but tremendous reviews (with the one exception of this “bah humbug” critique that doesn’t make a lot of sense). The ESPN family of networks will be re-running the film throughout the month (upcoming showtimes can be found on the movie’s home page), and it’s the perfect way to bring in the wonders of March Madness.
3. Fox Sports South, Charlotte Observer: It’s no wonder the ACC media felt snubbed after the Selection Committee dealt it a seemingly tough hand only hours after watching one of the best college basketball games of the year. The reasons for the committee’s harshness seem obvious — though not consistent with years past: they emphasized bad losses, regular season and tournament titles, a strong non-conference schedule, and road success; they ignored the effects of injuries and marquee wins.
4. USA Today: It wasn’t just the local media surprised by the ACC’s seeding and snubs. Three of the “seven” (the final one just commended the Selection Committee for doing a good job) surprises involved ACC teams. The biggest surprise was that Duke and Miami were each relegated to a #2 seed while Gonzaga and Kansas each got #1 seeds. Truthfully, the reasoning for awarding the Bulldogs a top seed sounds like what the committee would say, but I don’t agree with it. Essentially they disqualified Duke for not winning the ACC regular season or tournament title and then disqualified Miami for having bad losses. That’s a cop out. However, far more troubling was the decision to put North Carolina in Kansas’ bracket (scheduled to play in the Third Round). This is a rematch from last season’s Elite Eight, and I believe Roy Williams when he says playing Kansas makes him feel physically ill (he even wore Kansas gear to the National Championship in 2008!). That’s totally unnecessary when it’s rather easy to move #8 and #9 seeds around.
5. Sports On Earth: Duke is the ACC representative in what Will Leitch names the 2013 NCAA Tournament “Region of Death.” The Midwest Region has seven (!) of the top 20 teams from Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. It has the number one overall seed, a team many believed worthy of a top seed, a Michigan State team no one wants to count out for many reasons, a would-be favorite sleeper Saint Louis team, and a woefully underseeded Oregon team (which is another area where the Selection Committee clearly ignored the impact of injuries). That’s brutal, but should be fun.

EXTRA: Want to know why you see so many of the same faces in stripes? It’s because NCAA referees are essentially freelancers. The top officials work upwards of 100 games a year, a ludicrous workload when you consider the brutal travel that can accompany the job. The good news is that the ACC shells out good money for its officials, giving the conference more leverage on what sort of schedule they can work. The bad news is there’s not a good solution to the problem unless conferences hired officials for the season, which seems unlikely.

Matt Patton is an RTC microsite writer. He filed this report after Sunday afternoon’s ACC Tournament championship game.

Three Key Takeaways:

Miami Wins Its First ACC Championship

1. Shootout: Despite both teams coming in known for their defense, the 2013 ACC Tournament championship game will be remembered for its offensive showing. Specifically, the last 10 minutes of the first half was a shooting clinic for the ages. The two teams (led by PJ Hairston, Shane Larkin and Trey McKinney-Jones) combined for 10 threes in the 10 minutes. As a result, North Carolina cut the Miami lead to three with just over two minutes to play, until a shot clock violation gave the Hurricanes the space they needed to go for the throat.
2. Miami’s Versatility: The Hurricanes showed a versatility that should terrify opponents who find themselves in Miami’s regional. Miami went small two separate times, at the end of its win against Boston College and the end of the first half of the championship game. Both times Miami’s offense flourished. It’s no secret the Hurricanes’ defense is elite. Miami has the experience to win close games. The postgame press conference made one thing very clear: Jim Larranaga has this team in a great place. The leaders trust him and trust themselves no matter what the opponent is doing.
3. North Carolina’s Turnaround: Just a little over two months ago, the Tar Heels looked like outside shots to make the Big Dance. They were sitting 0-2 in ACC play facing a road game against Florida State. A month after that the Tar Heels took a beating in Coral Gables before Roy Williams moved PJ Hairston into the starting lineup. The move worked out, as North Carolina’s only two losses the rest of the season came against Duke. While Hairston’s addition was the obvious change, Marcus Paige‘s improvement is just as important, if not more so. Paige played 30 minutes or more in every game except for North Carolina’s win over Maryland when he got into foul trouble. Over the 11 games in the smaller lineup, Paige averaged more than five assists per game on top of nine and a half points per outing. He cut down on turnovers dramatically — the win at Maryland notwithstanding. It’s no secret Roy Williams’ offense runs a lot smoother with a good point guard.

Star of the Game: Shane Larkin proved to be the best player on the floor. He finished with 28 points, five rebounds, seven assists and two steals. He shot 8-of-15 from the floor, 4-of-7 from three and 8-of-8 from the free throw line. Whenever Miami needed to make a play, he delivered either a bucket or a dime on command. He also played the full 40 minutes, meaning he missed a total of four of the possible 120 minutes over the course of his three days in Greensboro.

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Matt Patton is an ACC microsite writer. He filed this report from the ACC Tournament championship game between North Carolina and Miami in Greensboro this afternoon.

An ACC school from outside the state of North Carolina has only won the regular season title outright eight times since 1954 (most recently, Maryland won it in 2002). An ACC school from outside the state of North Carolina has only won the ACC Tournament 10 times since 1954 (most recently, Florida State won it last year). Miami is the first team to ever do both in the same year. An unbalanced conference schedule has cheapened the regular season title in recent years, but that’s shouldn’t throw any shade on what the Hurricanes accomplished this year. The Miami win along with Florida State’s ACC Championship last season marks the second time in the league’s history that consecutive ACC Tournaments were won by schools outside of North Carolina (the 1984 and 1985 tournaments were won by Maryland and Georgia Tech, respectively).

Miami, your 2013 ACC Tournament champions. (photo: HurricaneSports.com)

And the Hurricanes won their final two games in front of very hostile crowds. They won because of tremendous coaching from Jim Larranaga — whose lineup changes proved instrumental in games against North Carolina and Boston College. They won because Shane Larkin was the best player in an ACC Tournament full of outstanding performances (Olivier Hanlan, Durand Scott and Dez Wells all went for over 30 points in a game). They won because experience doesn’t get rattled. In short, they won because they were the best team on the floor.

Miami made history in Greensboro. (photo: Chuck Liddy / Raleigh News & Observer)

Against North Carolina, Miami found itself in a different position than usual. The Tar Heels and their new and improved smaller lineup came out firing. With just over 10 minutes to go in the first half, North Carolina led, 18-13. Miami proceeded to score on its next nine possessions and 13 of 16 of the final possessions of the half (over that time they missed three shots). North Carolina only scored on eight of 15 possessions, but PJ Hairston hit four threes and Marcus Paige added another to keep the game within a possession at the half. It was the best overall 10-minute offensive stretch I’ve seen this year. Both teams moved the ball to find open shots and both teams knocked down nearly every shot available. At one point the lead changed hands on eight straight possessions.

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