Some semblance of order prevailed Tuesday night as Florida State managed a close win against Virginia Tech and North Carolina lodged a quietly scary win against Miami. Bernard James, the old man of the ACC, posted an 18-point, 15-rebound game (nine offensive rebounds) and Ian Miller offered the sufficient guard scoring (15 points) that the Seminoles had lacked in the early going. Virginia Tech simply couldn’t score at a strong enough clip against the defensive-minded Seminoles, managing a field goal percentage of only 30.5%. This is how we expected Florida State would win games, and it’s fun to see a team pull off a victory like this while still turning the ball over 19 times in a relatively slow-paced game. Did I say fun? I meant weird, but oddly gratifying.

Old Man Bernard James Had A Monster Game In The Victory Over Virginia Tech

Meanwhile, North Carolina’s convincing victory against Miami was scarier than you might expect. The Tar Heels draw a lot of offensive firepower from their triumvirate of big, athletic, sharp-shooting wings. Last night, Harrison Barnes went 2-of-12, Reggie Bullock went 2-of-6, and P.J. Hairston went 1-of-6. It was a 17-point win for UNC and the Hurricanes shot 41.8%. The ability to accomplish a high margin win without shut-down defense, hot shooting, or scoring from three of your best offensive players is what makes North Carolina such a dangerous team. Totally crushing an opponent in every facet of the game will always be impressive, but soundly beating a team despite lots of things going wrong? Just as remarkable.

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1. Sports Illustrated: Bubble Watch is back! The bad news is that the ACC only has three teams that are locks or should be in. The good news is there are five more still in the mix (aka teams that have an RPI under 100). The worse news is that Miami and Virginia Tech are now 0-2 to start conference play, leaving NC State, Florida State and Wake Forest to pick up the slack. In a year of middling power conferences the ACC should get four teams invited.
2. Tomahawk Nation: Speaking of the Seminoles, Leonard Hamilton’s team had a good old-fashioned block party against Virginia Tech last night. They blocked 25.4% of the Hokies’ shots (15-of-59 field goal attempts were blocked). Luckily, Michael Rogner pointed this out twice on Twitter because I totally glossed over it the first time. That’s an outrageous number. Oh, and Bernard James was a beast, going for 18 points and 15 rebounds (of which nine were offensive). The performance earned the Seminoles a road win for their efforts.
3. Washington Times: Maryland is much better with Alex Len in the lineup, but Mark Turgeon’s squad still has a long way to go. Specifically, the team’s transition defense was horrendous at the RBC Center on Sunday, but NC State’s athletic frontcourt exacerbated the problem, as Mark Gottfried rotated DeShawn Painter and Richard Howell to go against a gassed Len.
4. Raleigh News & Observer: Speaking of NC State, the Wolfpack are the only ACC team with five players averaging double figures for the season. This balance means there are several players who can step up on any given night. The problem is the team’s talent drops off fairly quickly after the top six.
5. Durham Herald Sun: Dexter Strickland is the newest Tar Heel to have to deal with fans calling for other players to start ahead of him. Last year it was Larry Drew II, as fans and the media called for Roy Williams to start Kendall Marshall instead. I was one of them. This year, I’ll stick with the coach. It’s true that Reggie Bullock and PJ Hairston have been terrific and add an invaluable long-range threat to the offense. But I think Strickland helps the team chemistry where Drew clearly hurt it last season. The good news for Tar Heel fans is I expect Strickland to keep helping team chemistry regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench.

1. BC Interruption: Brian Favat responds to John Feinstein’s critique of ACC basketball since expansion. His argument is that expansion wasn’t the cause of ACC mediocrity, but volatile athletic directors. I certainly agree that expansion didn’t kill the conference’s competitiveness (though I think Mike Krzyzewski made a good point about diluting exposure somewhat), but I’d add the caveat that with success comes stability. The ACC lucked into a murderers’ row of coaches when building its reputation, but the streak ended as some retired. Athletic directors with “quick trigger fingers” certainly makes replacing coaches more difficult, but in the world of big-time college athletics, success is paramount. I may address this later, but this is definitely worth a read.
2. Miami Herald: Freshman Hurricane point guard Shane Larkin is the son of Barry Larkin, the baseball star who was just elected to the Hall of Fame. Naturally, his father has been hugely important in his athletic development. Specifically Larkin mentioned his game-day preparation and mentality. But most of all, it’s clear that the freshman is just proud and happy for his father.
3. Washington Post: Virginia‘s defense doesn’t look much different than last year, but it’s much more effective. The major difference: opponents’ three-point shooting. This year, the Cavaliers are doing a better job keeping opponents from collapsing the Virginia defense and kicking it out for an open three. Last year the team allowed opponents to shoot over 36% from three; this year, it’s only allowing them to shoot 27% from beyond the arc. We’ll see how that number changes with the better shooters in ACC play.
4. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: If you don’t know Bernard James‘ story, read this. Even if you do, there are some details about his life before the Air Force that I didn’t know about. James is one of the most inspiring players you’ll come by in all of sports. He, like many, had to find his own way — which led through three tours of duty in Iraq.
5. Richmond Times-Dispatch: Virginia Tech is in trouble. After sneaking into most people’s early NCAA Tournament brackets based on an uninspiring schedule, the Hokies promptly lost to Wake Forest to start conference play. Based on their offense at times against the Demon Deacons, the next game against Florida State could be even uglier. The bottom line is this is a must-win game for Seth Greenberg’s squad to silence critics and its own self-doubts. The same could actually be said for the Seminoles, so make sure to tune into ESPNU at 7:00 PM this evening.

Typically, getting to the line is the province of post-up players and guys who slash and drive to the rim. Getting to the free throw line is important (it is one of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors), particularly for players without a consistent three-point shot because it allows them to reach high levels of offensive efficiency. To get the most out of post players’ possessions, it is simply essential for low-post players to get to the line. It’s hard thing to get better at and that’s why Mason Plumlee’s improvement in this area is particularly impressive. Yes, he is still a terrible shot from the line (averaging south of 45% for the past two seasons), but getting to the line is still a great way to increase offensive efficiency, no matter how lousy a shooter. Last season, Plumlee took 93 free throws and made 41 of them. Comparing these figures with his shooting from the field we can calculate (or at least trust Ken Pomeroy to calculate) a Free Throw Rate of 49.2%. This season, he has already taken 83 free throws, made 35, and posted a Free Throw Rate of 74.5%, good for second best in the ACC. This is impressive improvement, but exactly the kind of thing you would hope for with your starting big who is expected to handle an increased share of the offensive load.

What’s much rarer (and much more dangerous) is the combination of a talented three-point shooter who also has the ability to draw contact and get points from the line. A player with that combination of skills is particularly dangerous. This year, Duke is getting that from Ryan Kelly, which is, all things considered totally surprising. Last year, Kelly made 33 of 41 field goals and posted Free Throw Rate of 22.1%. This is a fairly low figure for your typical big, but last season, Kelly largely functioned as a spot-up shooter, taking open shots when available. For a guy with that kind of playing style, 22.1% is fairly standard. Sure, he could drive a little more, but you wouldn’t expect this number to rise too much. This is where Kelly has surprised everyone.

Ryan Kelly Has Gotten Better At Drawing Fouls, As Well As Avoiding Them On Defense

This season, Kelly has already made more than twice the number of free throws he made over the course of the entire past season. For 2011-2012 season, Kelly has made 67 of 81 free throws and has posted a Free Throw Rate of 77.1%, the best mark in the entire Atlantic Coast Conference. The versatile forward is drawing contact and cashing in at over triple the rate of last season. It’s an incredible improvement, and one of the biggest leaps I have ever seen a player make from one season to the next. Less impressively, but nearly as important, Kelly has stopped sending opponents to the line as much as he had in the past, While Kelly got called for 4.2 fouls per 40 minutes last season, this year he has trimmed the number down to 2.8. Whether it was Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching or something that just clicked in Kelly’s head, this new-found free throw-earning, foul-drawing aptitude is an incredible individual achievement as well as a significant boon for the Blue Devils.

With Plumlee’s and Kelly’s conference-best abilities at getting to the line, Duke has an added new and potent dimension to its offensive attack. Of course, the remarkable thing about this season is that it is not just the two forwards who are better at getting to the line. Austin Rivers seems to have an in-born talent for getting to the free throw line and Seth Curry and the rest of Duke’s guards have shown an increased eagerness to attack defenders and draw contact. The end result is that Duke’s Free Throw Attempts / Field Goal Attempts has shot through the roof. Last year, the Blue Devils were thoroughly mediocre in this category, posting a rate of 37.4%. This season, that number is up to 51.5%, good for third best in the entire country. For a team, this is a truly remarkable feat and one area where this incarnation of Duke is clearly head and shoulders better than the squads of recent seasons.

Mark Gottfried made himself very clear both before and after NC State‘s ACC opener against Maryland: his goal is to make the NCAA tournament. He knows 11-5 in conference play should lock up an at-large bid (the Wolfpack would be 22-9), so he wants 11 conference wins. His team is one game closer after beating the Terrapins 79-74. The score doesn’t really reflect the game, which NC State led nearly the whole way.

The one thing that was clear watching Gottfried’s squad is they have the talent to make the Big Dance. They are long and athletic up front–especially with the offseason transformation undergone by Richard Howell. CJ Leslie looks much better than when I saw him last season. He is still dominant in transition, but now he is much more comfortable around the basket. Where last year, he settled far too often for the 15-foot jump shot, against Maryland Leslie attacked the basket and boards to earn 19 points and ten boards. Leslie still needs to work on taking care of the basketball, finishing with five turnovers for the game.

CJ Leslie Dominated Maryland in the Conference Opener. (Ethan Hyman / Raleigh News & Observer)

As for the rest of the frontcourt, Howell struggled in the first half because of foul trouble, but came out swinging in the second to finish with 10 points. Maryland frosh Alex Len clearly struggled to keep pace with the athletic frontcourt late in the game, which allowed DeShawn Painter a couple of open transition lay-ups.

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1. Washington Post: John Feinstein takes a look at the ACC’s mediocrity since the additions of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College — despite a 9-0 vote against it from the basketball coaches — in 2004. Since then, the league has slowly become a two-team battle between Duke and North Carolina. Mike Krzyzewski faults the way the expansion was handled because it killed the round-robin for a system that benefits the same teams every year by having fixed playing partners (i.e., it’s fine for Duke and North Carolina because they get tons of exposure already and play each other twice, but Boston College plays Virginia Tech and Miami each year, which isn’t nearly as valuable).
2. Fayetteville Observer: Bret Strelow takes a look at the Duke coaching staff, anchored by three guards who all played together in Durham nearly two decades ago. Jeff Capel has already been a head coach, but there’s little doubt that Steve Wojciechowski or Chris Collins would struggle to find a head job if they looked. The three also have a record of dealing with adversity at Duke, having played in the infamous 1994-95 season when Coach K took most of the year off to recover from back surgery and the Blue Devils finished under .500. Now they’re trying to help a team that’s facing some recent adversity, albeit a whole lot less, achieve its potential this season.
3. Orlando Sentinel: Apparently Florida State felt “optimistic” going into its ACC opener against Clemson. Well, as you probably know, it’s going to be tough to be optimistic coming out of the game now. The Seminoles allowed nearly 80 points and lost by a final deficit of 20 to the Tigers, not exactly the start they were looking for. Now, with no real marquee wins and six losses already, Florida State is almost certainly on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Seminoles need to turn things around very quickly.
4. Duke Basketball Report: Strelow mentioned it briefly in his article above, but Al Featherston also talks about the new positioning of Jeff Capel on Duke‘s bench. Capel now sits in the middle of the bench where he can talk to players as they come out or to try to get a feel for the team’s sideline energy. Two players I expect he’ll talk to frequently are Tyler Thornton and Quinn Cook, who Coach K has running the point together currently to help Seth Curry move off the ball where he excels. As the year goes on, expect Cook to see more and more time and Thornton to be used primarily as a spark plug at crucial junctures.
5. Charlotte Observer: The ACC is transitioning both on the bench and on the court. The conference has multiple new coaches for the second time in as many years, while freshman play an important role on most teams trying to replace the departed stars. That transition has shown so far in the loss column, where ACC teams combined to lose an astonishing 50 non-conference games coming out of the weekend.

Wake Forest has already matched its conference win total (one) from last season thanks to a 58-53 win over Virginia Tech (who was 11-3 coming into the game). The win is the Demon Deacons’ best in the last two seasons, as the only two power conference opponents they defeated last year was Big 10 doormat Iowa and a short-handed Virginia team. Last year, CJ Harris scored six points in the final two minutes to seal the deal as the Cavaliers went ice cold from the floor. This year Harris again proved the late-game hero against a different commonwealth squad, knocking down two huge threes to answer Virginia Tech’s first lead with just over a minute to play and the go-ahead bucket on the Demon Deacons’ final possession.

CJ Harris Shows Wake Might Have a Future After All (AP/C. Burton)

This game showed just how far Wake Forest has come since last season. Other than 15 seconds late in the second half, the Deacons never trailed. Every Virginia Tech run was answered by a big bucket from Travis McKie (in the first half), Tony Chennault (in the second half) or Harris (at the end of the game). The team certainly won’t stay at the top of the ACC for long; it struggles taking care of the ball, forcing turnovers and with shot selection. But the win shows just how far Jeff Bzdelik’s players have come since last year.

McKie, once the most consistent scorer on an awful team, now has the ability to control significant portions of the game with scoring and, at least against the Hokies, on the glass. Especially in the first half McKie scored in a variety of ways, excelling at getting to the basket in the halfcourt and transition. He also managed to pull down eight rebounds despite questionable rebounding for much of the season (he struggles to get in position on defense in particular). The ten pounds McKie reportedly gained over the summer also shows up in his greater confidence to take contact at the rim.

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I can’t help but be deliriously and feverishly excited about the beginning of intraconference play, but before we get down to brass tacks, there are a few things that we should probably be talking about before we settle up the conference pecking order. Let’s go over a few suggested topics of conversation before actual basketball begins.

1. Virginia is for real. The Cavaliers’ national ranking is totally deserved and barring injuries or collapse, this team is poised to make some noise in March. Mike Scott is the flavor of the week amongst the college basketball stat-erati because, well he is kind of killing it, but Virginia’s slow pace means that he’s not getting enough credit for it. The Cavaliers are certainly capable of taking down Duke or North Carolina and the team’s consistency is something that every other team in the conference envies.

Mike Scott Is Really Good

2. Scheduling is a double-edged sword. Both Maryland and North Carolina State have the talent to make the NCAA Tournament, but both also have some scheduling issues that might get in the way of these aspirations. Maryland has a daunting conference schedule that includes two shots apiece at Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke, as well as a non-conference tilt with Temple. That gives the Terrapins plenty of chances to register signature wins, but it also means that there are seven games on the schedule that are more likely to be losses than not. Conversely, the NC State Wolfpack has two games apiece against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. Mark Gottfried’s team is likely to rack up plenty of wins, but they have far less opportunities to make an impression with a certain tournament selection committee.

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Well, it’s that time of year. With conference play looming on the horizon it’s time to dedicate the Morning Five to the ACC’s performance (both past and future).

1. ESPN: We’ll start with the Worldwide Leader. I know Robbi Pickeral is writing a blog focused on North Carolina, but I wish she’d write it for a broader audience. Addressing the MVP paragraph to “Tar Heel fans” decidedly doesn’t qualify. She also proceeds to ignore the fact that Duke also beat Michigan (on a neutral floor no less), and I can’t find any real logical thread that accounts for “Losses that Sting.” Stylistic criticism aside, I think Pickeral’s predictions are spot on.
2. CBSSports.com: Moving along the internets Gary Parrish checks in with a much more in-depth look at the ACC heading into conference play. The most interesting tidbit from the piece is the story (which I somehow missed) about Milton Jennings yelling and then being physically separated from Clemson coach Brad Brownell. Jennings is the guy many people thought could help the Tigers right the ship, but this incident definitely bodes poorly. Again, the predictions are solid, though I like Pickeral’s at the bottom of the conference a little more (even though it’s a total crapshoot down there).
3. ACC Sports Journal: Moving down to the conference-level coverage, Denny Kuiper assesses his preseason predictions with short blurbs for each team. His most overrated team is Clemson while Virginia Tech steals the most underrated honor (NC State and Virginia are the respective runner-ups). One beef I have with many of these predictions is their treatment of Virginia. The Cavaliers are 13-1 any way you slice it. Sure, the schedule wasn’t the strongest, but give Tony Bennett‘s squad credit for beating the teams it was supposed to beat (how many other conference teams can say that?). My final beef is that Kuiper fails to mention the growth of the Plumlees, who dominated Temple in the Blue Devils’ loss Monday.
4. Durham Herald-Sun: Moving more local, Steve Wiseman and Harold Gutmann take a look at each team, calling Florida State, Miami and NC State bubble teams (I’d include Virginia Tech and probably ditch the Hurricanes and Wolfpack). They do give Mason Plumlee credit for his huge improvement, but some of the “Wins to tout” and “Losses to hide from” show a lack of national perspective.
5. Duke Hoop Blog: Finally, let’s go team-specific with the Devil Wolf’s game-by-game breakdown of ACC play. He predicts Duke to win the conference title with a 14-2 record, followed closely by the Tar Heels at 13-3. While I don’t agree with his choice atop the league (Duke will lose at least three conference games), I do agree with the general distribution of teams. Past North Carolina and Duke I expect a real logjam for the middle-of-the-pack teams (with one team rising to take third, and a fourth conference at-large being awarded on a strong ACC Tournament performance). But mad props for taking the time to predict every conference game.

EXTRA: On a more normal note, check out Barry Jacobs’ statistical look at the worst free throw shooting of the last decade. Mason Plumlee is bricking his way towards history, though he’d have to return for his senior season and continue his negative trend to make a run for the top spot (even this season two players in the conference sport a lower percentage).

1. Grantland: It’s no secret that North Carolina and Duke are the top two squads in the ACC. But can Tony Bennett establish Virginia as their perennial challenger in the wake of Gary Williams’ departure? Shane Ryan breaks down Bennett’s pack-line defense, which has been the team’s key to success this season. We’ve talked about it a little before, but the screen-shots are illustrating. There’s never more than one player outside of the three-point line, which keeps more athletic teams from taking advantage of dribble penetration and forces them to beat the Cavaliers from deep.
2. Philadelphia Daily News: Dick Jerardi does a good job describing Mike Krzyzewski‘s career in brief and why he thinks there won’t be anyone else like him. I’d only add that the game has changed significantly since the start of the 1980s, which makes both Coach K’s success impressive and the likelihood of another coach like him even slimmer. He also briefly previewed Duke’s eventual opponent last night (who ended up winning), Temple.
3. Baltimore Sun: Don Markus checks in on Maryland and whether its record is a “true indicator” of the team’s current level. I think it is, but you have to remember the Terps’ opponents too. Mark Turgeon implied that he thought their record was generous. In the end Markus concludes that the Terrapins will be erratic, blowing out opponents or losing by 30 points to similar caliber ones because of their up-tempo pace and questionable shooting.
4. Tallahassee Democrat: Florida State knows it needs to get its act together if it’s going to make the NCAA Tournament. Leonard Hamilton isn’t as concerned with the wins and losses as his team’s performance. Basically, the biggest issue is (like most years) the Seminoles can’t score consistently from anywhere. But they whipped up on Auburn last night to tune up for conference play.
5. Baltimore Sports Report: The Baltimore Sports Report takes a look at the missing pieces of some conference teams. To be short (in my opinion): North Carolina needs a shooter; Duke needs a point guard; Virginia needs a shot-creator in the backcourt; Virginia Tech needs an inside presence; NC State needs consistency; Florida State needs scoring; Clemson needs a second option who can take over the game; Georgia Tech needs a go-to guy; Maryland needs significant contributors aside from Terrell Stoglin; Wake Forest needs rebounding; Miami needs a defense; Boston College needs everything.