ACC Afternoon Five: ACC Tournament Saturday Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on March 10th, 2012

  1. Miami Herald: The biggest news to break late on Friday was the suspension of Miami‘s leading scorer Durand Scott. Scott has been deemed ineligible by the NCAA due to impermissible benefits and the Hurricanes weren’t informed until around 5:30 PM yesterday.  Without Scott, Miami didn’t have the firepower to beat Florida State and succumbed to their in-state rivals. Scott is the third player to be suspended because of the on-going NCAA investigation at Miami. Reggie Johnson was suspended for a single game before being reinstated and DeQuan Jones missed the first ten games of the season before his reinstatement. While Miami has to hope that Scott will be swiftly reinstated, the timing could literally not be worse: the Hurricanes are right on the edge of the field and Selection Sunday is tomorrow.
  2. Basketball Prospectus: While yesterday’s wisdom held that Miami and North Carolina State each had to win one more game to make it to the Tournament, at least one system already had the Wolfpack and Hurricanes in. While, NC State almost assuredly played themselves into the tournament by toppling Virginia, Miami’s situation is much more interesting. It seems like most folks have Miami pretty squarely out, but the Easy Bubble Solver’s projections offer some cause for optimism in Coral Gables.
  3. ESPN: The big news in Chapel Hill was the awkward fall of North Carolina‘s John Henson. Though x-rays indicated that he didn’t break his left wrist which he was using to brace himself, clear discomfort prevented him from being a factor in the game against Maryland. While there’s no word yet on whether Henson will play today, history is skeptical. Roy Williams hasn’t been shy about his indifference to the ACC Tournament. In 2009, the stacked Tar Heels and eventual national champions lost the conference tournament while Williams held out Ty Lawson who was coming off a toe injury. If Henson really wants to play, the coaching staff will probably allow it, but this game seems to mean little to the folks in Chapel Hill.
  4. News and Observer:  In the inevitable benchmark category, Kendall Marshall‘s 12 assists against Maryland gave the North Carolina guard the single-season ACC record for assists. Now with 311 assist this season, Marshall surpassed Georgia Tech’s Craig “Noodles” Neal. Of course, Marshall still trails Iona‘s Scott Machado for the most assists on the 2012 season. Machado has 117.
  5. Durham Herald-Sun: With Ryan Kelly sitting out this weekend’s tournament with an injury, Duke had to dig a little deeper for some front court help in yesterday’s game. Josh Hairston got the call and responded by playing 17 solid minutes for the Blue Devil’s. His individual statistics aren’t going to blow anyone away, but he seems happy to help his team get the win. Hairston and Duke’s forwards will be tested against the platoons of athletic big men that Florida State sends out . It’s a stern test for Hairston, but one that will only help his team moving forward.
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ACC Tournament: Three Thoughts From Duke – Virginia Tech

Posted by mpatton on March 9th, 2012

Duke ground out a 60-56 win over Virginia Tech, giving the Hokies their twelfth loss by five points or less this season.

  • This game was nearly as ugly as the Miami-Georgia Tech slugfest last night. Tyler Thornton and Austin Rivers combined to take 57% of Duke’s shots. And while it wasn’t pretty, both guys came up with the big plays when Duke needed them. Rivers kept the team in business at the beginning of the game before letting his frustration get the better of him. It was his full-court sprint for a tipped ball that iced the game after he completed the and-one. Thornton was more important defensively, coming up with three steals, but he also deserves credit for knocking down a very big three to put Duke’s lead back at eight when it looked like the Hokies were making a push.

    Ryan Kelly Is Critical For Duke's Success This Month

  • Virginia Tech’s offense needs work this offseason. A lot of it. The Hokies waste way too much time on offense. Duke played decent defense, and Seth Greenberg mentioned slowing the game down as part of the game plan. But successful clock-chewing teams squeeze 25-30 seconds out of every possession and take good shots (see: Wisconsin). Robert Brown’s 3-3 halftime stat line, and offensive rebounding were the only bright spots. The Hokies’ defense was very effective though. It forced Duke’s offense to flow through Thornton, and made it very hard for Duke to get the ball inside (though once the ball got into the lane, the Blue Devils were effective scoring).
  • The Blue Devils really need a healthy Ryan Kelly to make a run in March. Without Kelly Duke’s bench only managed six points. His absence also spotlights frontcourt depth issues. Mason Plumlee played a very “intelligent” game according to Mike Krzyzewski, but both Plumlees are liable to pick up fouls. Kelly’s ability to stretch the defense would’ve opened up the lane a lot more for Rivers to drive and the Plumlees to post.
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ACC Tournament: When The Season Comes Down To A Coin Flip

Posted by mpatton on March 9th, 2012

Winning close games isn’t all about skill. Certainly the best team will come out on top more often than not. But when a game is decided in the final possession–or even the final minute–skill is trumped by chance. It certainly helps if a 90% foul shooter goes to the line to ice a game, but he still misses every one out of ten free throws. He’s not taking ten, he’s taking one. That’s why winning really close games is as much a matter of luck as it is skill.

Now, after splitting a series of two coin flips with NC State, Virginia may be looking at a trip to the NIT. The Cavaliers won the first meeting in Raleigh by a point. The Wolfpack came back and won the rubber match in Atlanta by three. Virginia got outplayed in the second half. CJ Leslie continued his torrid stretch with the best performance of the ACC Tournament, going 9-11 from the field for 19 points to go with a game-leading 14 rebounds. Two monster threes to answer Cavalier runs from Lorenzo Brown  (one with 16:44 left in the game after Virginia cut the lead to one and one seven minutes later after it cut the lead to three) complimented Leslie’s performance and propelled the Wolfpack to victory.

Mike Scott Deserves A Chance To Dance.

I’m going to make two cases: why you should pull for the Selection Committee to call Virginia’s name this weekend, and why I think they should.

Starting with the second argument, Virginia’s profile isn’t scintillating but it’s solid. The most glaring part of Virginia’s profile are the three RPI 100-2oo losses (to TCU, against Virginia Tech and at Clemson). They also own a 3-6 record against the RPI top-50 (updating NC State’s ranking), and a 4-0 record against teams ranked 51-100. That’s a relatively weak profile that has enough meat on it to be in the 11-12 conversation. Now factor in the eye test: the Cavaliers’ style isn’t pretty, but they played Duke to a one possession game on the road, North Carolina to a one possession game at home and Florida State twice to a one possession game. That’s four games (against the ACC’s top three teams) decided by one possession. Close wins shouldn’t count for much, but when we’re talking about a borderline team I think they should count for something.

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ACC Afternoon Five: ACC Tournament Friday Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on March 9th, 2012

After a chalky Thursday (outside of Virginia Tech’s big win over Clemson), we get to the good stuff. Friday is when the stakes get higher and the going gets good. Today is critical for NC State and Miami, with Maryland and Virginia Tech hanging around to play spoiler, and everyone else with their eye on the big prize: the championship.

  1. New York Times: Karl Hess drama continues with the story of how Hess, infamous for ejecting two NC State legends from an RBC Center crowd against conference protocol, turned down a chance to referee the ACC Tournament. Though while Hess may be absent, his presence is still being felt. The three referees who officiated the first game of the tournament wore pieces of masking tape on their shoes with the initials “KH.”
  2. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Virginia, a team that had been decimated early in the season by defections has seen it’s depth take a few more hits this week. Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia’s freshman sixth man, underwent surgery for a broken foot on Wednesday and is out for the rest of the season. The Cavaliers had been hoping that Assane Sene, their senior center might be able to return for the tournament, but such hopes were dashed earlier this week when Tony Bennett suspended him for the rest of the season for a violation of team rules. The already shallow Cavaliers may have a tough time sustaining a tournament run with this further blow to bench depth.
  3. Washington Post: While Seth Greenberg‘s Hokies managed the only upset of the day against Clemson, Greenberg’s heart seems to be divided. Post writer John Feinstein details the troubles that have beset Greenberg’s brother, Brad. After NCAA infractions as coach at Radford, Brad Greenberg was unceremoniously drummed out of college coaching, thanks to the dreaded show-cause clause. Now in effective exile coaching in the Venezuelan league, Seth can’t help but feel for his beloved brother.
  4. News and Observer: Leonard Hamilton won a much deserved award for ACC Coach of the Year, but how did he end up rebuilding a dying a program? A system based on sound defensive principles as well as time and luck seem to be the simple recipe that led to slow but sure rise of Florida State. Leonard Hamilton seems like a good coach and even better person. It’s hard not to root for his continued success.
  5. CBS Sports: Though most of the action in the conference is in the tournament, Maryland made some waves on the recruiting trail yesterday. Securing the services of Charles Mitchell, the Terrapins look to greatly shore up their front line with a recruiting class that now features three top-100 recruits. Mitchell joins fellow forwards Shaq Cleare and Jake Layman in the wave of young men that should be descending on College Park to bolster the Terps’ front line.
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ACC Tournament: Three Thoughts From North Carolina – Maryland

Posted by mpatton on March 9th, 2012

Maryland ended up losing by 16 thanks to five garbage time points. But the story of the game was John Henson‘s injury, which forced Roy Williams to use alternative line-ups for much of the game.

  • There may be a more serious chasm between Mark Turgeon and Terrell Stoglin than I originally thought. Stoglin kept Maryland in the game. He got trigger happy at times, but his shots fell far more than any other Terrapin starters. At one point in the second half according to Adam Smith (I was behind the North Carolina bench), “Turgeon, stomping: ‘I can’t coach him!’ after Stoglin wasn’t listening.” Obviously, you don’t want to read too much into Turgeon’s frustration in a game that was spiraling out of control quickly. But those two need to be on the same page.

    Terrell Stoglin And Mark Turgeon Need To Resolve Their Differences.

  • North Carolina has an embarrassment of riches up front. Even after Henson’s wrist injury, the Tar Heels got 14 points and eight rebounds from James Michael McAdoo in just under 30 minutes of playing time. McAdoo got criticized after preseason expectations were much more than he delivered. But his game looked a lot more polished against Maryland. Offensively he brings a lot of things that Henson doesn’t (after the game Kendall Marshall mentioned his ability to face up and slash to the basket). He’s also an incredible worker. Even potentially losing first team All-ACC forwards Henson and Tyler Zeller, North Carolin should still own one of the best front lines next year thanks to McAdoo.
  • Maryland’s front line needs some work. Alex Len blocked a couple of shots early, but he and James Padgett combined to go 0-7 from the field (and 0-2 from the charity stripe) and only hauled in four rebounds in 34 combined minutes of play. That’s not going to cut it. Ashton Pankey and Mychal Parker put up a strong effort off the bench, combining for 15 points and 12 boards.

Miscellaneous notes:

Henson’s wrist was x-rayed and the results reportedly came back negative. He didn’t play because he was having trouble grabbing the ball. Sounds like there will be a MRI and he’ll be reevaluated tonight and tomorrow.

It’s also worth noting that Kendall Marshall continued his improved offensive play, knocking down 3-4 threes. It can’t be said enough how much harder that makes the Tar Heels to guard.

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ACC Tournament: Miami Outlasts Georgia Tech and Day Two Preview

Posted by mpatton on March 9th, 2012

Miami needs to hope the Selection Committee didn’t watch the first 27 minutes of this game, or the eye test won’t be their friend. With 13 minutes left in the game Miami trailed Georgia Tech 27-26 after DeQuan Jones knocked down two free throws. To that point the two teams had combined for 17 made field goals and 20 turnovers. Suddenly Rion Brown‘s bright orange shoes caught fire, as Miami extended its 2-0 run to an 18-0 run, knocking down 7-8 shots.

Durand Scott Was The Only Player Better Than 50% From The Floor Last Night.

Yesterday, the ACC Tournament did not showcase well-played basketball. But all of the games, except for Maryland’s thumping of Wake Forest, were close in the second half. Because the only “upset” was Virginia Tech beating Clemson, I expect both the quality of basketball to go up significantly today without losing too much competitiveness (coincidentally, I’m predicting one blowout and it involves Maryland).

Today’s preview after the jump.

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ACC Tournament: Three Thoughts from Virginia Tech – Clemson

Posted by mpatton on March 8th, 2012

As we expected it came down to the final couple of minutes, but Virginia Tech pulled out a 68-63 win over Clemson in the first round of the ACC Tournament.

  • Free throws, free throws, free throws. Look at the box score from the game, and it looks like Clemson should’ve won. Similar rebounding numbers, better shooting percentages and only a slim deficit in turnovers. But the Tigers only shot 60% from the charity stripe to the Hokies’ 85%. That was the difference. With a little over a minute left Tanner Smith missed two free throws including the front end of a one-and-one. Brian Narcisse and Devin Booker also missed one. That’s five points left on the board in the final minute alone. There’s your deficit.
  • “We haven’t practiced special situations as much; we’ve just lived it,” Seth Greenberg commented on his team’s youth and their tendency towards tough games (17 games decided by six points or less). Virginia Tech’s closing has been up and down all season. It was up and down tonight too. The Hokies gave up one five-second violation trying to inbound the ball and probably should’ve had another. They gave up several second-chance opportunities down the stretch to keep Clemson in striking distance. Tomorrow against Duke, that execution will have to be a lot crisper.
  • Tanner Smith has one of the best motors in the conference. He and Andre Young were everywhere defensively for Clemson down the stretch. Young got most of the accolades because of his importance on offense, but Smith is a big part of why Clemson’s defense is so effective. He’s a very versatile defender who fights through every screen. Those two are going to be impossible for Brad Brownell to replace next year. At least for replacing Young, the freshman Devin Coleman had a terrific game (truthfully, I don’t know why he didn’t get more time during the season).
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ACC Tournament: NC State Survives Boston College

Posted by mpatton on March 8th, 2012

Whatever the final score might say, Boston College was right with NC State until the last ten minutes. This is a story Eagles fans know well.

Boston College showed its youth early. The Eagles started the game 0-7 from the field with five turnovers. At that point, I wondered if they could keep the deficit below 30. NC State led 14-0, and it wasn’t even that close. The Eagles were being couldn’t hold onto the ball settled for contested threes when they could get off a shot. The deficit remained at double digits until Lonnie Jackson knocked down two threes in the last three minutes to cut the NC State lead to eight. Out of the Wolfpack timeout, Alex Johnson turned it over, giving Boston College the chance to cut the lead to five with a three. Instead, Patrick Heckmann missed a lay-up (he’s definitely still recovering from the month-long bout with mono earlier in conference play); Dennis Clifford committed an offensive foul; and all hell broke loose.

Steve Donahue's Work Cut Out for Him, but Pieces Starting to Emerge for the Eagles.

Still only down eight with the ball with 30 seconds left, Boston College looked ready to seize control of the momentum by adding to an 8-0 run to close out the half. Instead, Jordan Daniels committed a huge freshman turnover. He turned his back to Lorenzo Brown to look at Steve Donahue for the play. Next thing you know Brown picked his pocket and made him pay on the other end with the and-one. Brown missed the free throw, but another Boston College turnover (the team’s thirteenth of the half) led to CJ Williams’ first basket of the afternoon. Suddenly a potentially 10-0 or 11-0 run in favor of the Eagles was an 8-5 stretch, and the lead was back to 13. Those costly mental errors plagued Donahue’s team all season. They reflect the backcourt youth.

Conclusion and thoughts on NC State after the break.

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ACC Tournament: Three Thoughts from Wake Forest – Maryland

Posted by mpatton on March 8th, 2012

In the end it was a dominant win by Maryland. Jeff Bzdelik pulled his starters at the under-four media timeout (to be fair, Nikita Mescheriakov and Tony Chennault had already fouled out by that point).

  • Starting with Wake Forest, this game didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know. The Demon Deacons played Maryland tough the first 15 minutes and fell apart. After leading 26-21, Maryland went on a 35-9 run including the beginning of the second half. The biggest issue all afternoon for Jeff Bzdelik’s squad was production from players not named Mescheriakov, CJ Harris and Travis McKie. Those three scored 52 of Wake Forest’s 60 points (it would’ve been more had Bzdelik left them in to the bitter end). Chennault and Carson Desrosiers combined to go 1-13 from the field. That won’t cut it coming from starters. Period.
  • On Maryland’s end, it’s really tough to judge how impressive the Terrapins were against Wake Forest. There’s no argument that they didn’t dominate the game, but Wake Forest also lost all of its will to win after giving up its five-point lead in dramatic fashion down the stretch in the first half. The best news from Mark Turgeon’s standpoint is that he got to rest his thin line-up for much of the second half, which will keep the teams’ collective legs fresh for a game tomorrow against North Carolina.
  • In contrast to Wake Forest’s starters, Maryland’s combined to go 25-43 from the field (58%) thanks to one of Nick Faust‘s best games of the year (19 points on ten shots) and a very strong game from James Padgett (5-6 from the field). This Maryland team could make North Carolina work tomorrow if Faust and Padgett can combine for more points than Terrell Stoglin.
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ACC Afternoon Five: ACC Tournament Thursday Edition

Posted by KCarpenter on March 8th, 2012

It’s that special time of year. The tournament begins today in Atlanta and the teams of the Atlantic Conference are buzzing with the excitement and desperation of the opportunity to make closing arguments. Lots of teams have a lot to prove, but let’s zero in on some of the more interesting subplots of today.

  1. Atlanta Journal-Constitution: It’s an oft-repeated refrain, but it’s one that deserves further examination: The ACC Tournament isn’t what it used to be. In 1983, this same paper referred to the tournament as the toughest ticket in sports. Today, tickets will be available at the gate. Though the tournament sold out last year, in 2009 and 2010 tickets went on sale to the general public. The last time that happened? 1966. The excitement around the league isn’t what it used to be and, granted, this year’s Atlanta location is much farther away from Tobacco Road than Greensboro, but it’s still a sad and sobering story to see the decline of the once great conference.
  2. Raleigh News & Observer: For the first time, television viewers in ACC country will have a choice about which broadcast of the tournament they want to watch. In years past, viewers in places like the Research Triangle in North Carolina got a “local” broadcast by Raycom sports, while the rest of the nation got ESPN’s coverage. Due to the conditions of the new ESPN television deal, ESPN’s ACC Tournament broadcasts will not be blacked out in areas that typically watch ACC play on Raycom. This may seem like a fairly inconsequential development to fans, but as Luke DeCock describes, this is a major battle ground for the high-stakes rating wars of big time college sports. The numbers are staggering and the implications interesting.
  3. Washington Times: Patrick Stevens takes a look back at Maryland‘s season and is a little weirded out by what he sees. The Terrapins have had a very odd year plagued by injuries, NCAA suspensions, and a huge changing of the guard with the retirement of Gary Williams. Despite the heroics of Terrell Stoglin and others, Maryland’s season has been little more than disappointing. Though the team clearly seems to want to try to make a run as deep as possible into March, it’s very clear that Mark Turgeon is mostly looking to put this season in the rear view.
  4. Boston Globe: How would you feel if you went into the ACC Tournament as the last seed? I’d feel pretty terrible, but the Eagles of Boston College are, as much as possible, optimistic about the team’s opportunities. Like Maryland, the Eagles acknowledge that their brightest days are certainly well ahead of them, and look back on the past season with shaking heads. Still the team is at least saying the right things: Yes this team will be better in two years, but we are also looking to be better now. Boston College knows it played pretty poorly during the regular season, but the team seems to truly believe that they are a better team now. This is probably true, but now all that remains to be seen is if that matters.
  5. Blogger So Dear: Do you want to see all the teams in the first round of the tournament compared to Bojangles menu items? Of course you do.
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