Ryan Kelly injured his right foot in Duke’s easy win last night over Clemson and didn’t play at all during the second half. Mike Krzyzewski noted that Kelly would not undergo x-rays or any other scan until today. So here are the bald facts: Ryan Kelly hurt his foot and we have no idea how badly it is injured.  He’s hurt this foot before. Right now, anything beyond this is just in the realm of speculation. Kelly could very well be perfectly fine at the moment of this publication. However, if the injury is serious and Kelly misses significant playing time, this could also be a serious blow — a season-changing one — to the top-ranked Blue Devils.

Kelly’s Possible Absence Really Hurts Duke’s Depth (credit: fayobserver.com)

During his tenure at Duke, Kelly’s ability to play stretch power forward has been a difficult match-up for just about any team in college basketball. This year, the 6’11” Kelly has made over half of the nearly 50 three-pointers that he has taken. He leads his team in offensive efficiency, rarely turns the ball over, and is an excellent passer for his size. He’s a good (though not great) rebounder, and his ability to get to the foul line on a regular basis and shoot a high percentage from there has given his already versatile offensive game another deadly dimension.  While early in his career Kelly was often criticized for poor defense, the vastly improved senior has helped lead the team to a top-three mark this season in defensive efficiency. The long story made very short is this: Kelly is really good.

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1. NBC Sports: Rob Dauster nails why Virginia was able to shut North Carolina down over the weekend. I don’t necessarily agree with his first point (that Virginia didn’t take bad shots), but the fact that the Cavaliers showed no interest in offensive rebounding made up for any bad shots that could have lead to a Tar Heel fast break. Tony Bennett prepared his team to shut Roy Williams’ break down, and it worked well. The good news for North Carolina is that most teams won’t be able to match up as well in transition (with the initial or secondary breaks). But the bad news is that this team just isn’t as good at running the system as most of Williams’ better teams.
2. Run the Floor: Moving down Tobacco Road to Durham, Duke fans have cause for concern. Mason Plumlee‘s free throw percentage has been trending downward since the beginning of the season (and continued its inaccurate nature against Clemson last night). Duke fans will never know whether it was a lack of confidence (possibly thanks to an airballed free throw against Ohio State) or just the fact that he has reverted to the same line-drive arc. Poor free throw shooting may kill his NPOY campaign, but as long as Plumlee stays aggressive in other aspects of the game, the Blue Devils should be just fine thanks to the number of other pieces surrounding him.
3. ACC Sports Journal: Speaking of the pieces surrounding Mason Plumlee, Ben Swain paid tribute to the great season Quinn Cook has been having (in honor of Cook’s bizarre zero-point, 14-assist game against Wake Forest). Cook summarily dropped 27 points, six assists and grabbed five boards against Clemson last night. But it’s pretty amazing to look at the turnaround Cook has seen since last year when he was mostly an afterthought, especially on defense where he was prone to frequent lapses. Cook is one of Duke’s best players and may be its most important in terms of the stability he provides the Blue Devils. Not many people saw that coming.
4. Hampton Roads Daily Press: On the topic of defensive lapses, Virginia Tech has had plenty of them. Where Seth Greenberg generally made the Hokies into a respectable defensive team (a physical one, if nothing else), James Johnson’s Hokies are quite poor on defense so far this season. They’re allowing 74.6 points a game and are ranked a full 180 spots below their average defensive ranking (#50) by Ken Pomeroy since joining the ACC. The problems? Bad interior defense, not forcing turnovers, and a failure to rebound.
5. Washington Post: When people talked about Dez Wells as the difference-maker for Maryland in the preseason, I tried not to scoff because he had only joined the team in August. How is that enough time to get to know new teammates, much less fit in with them? But Wells has proven the believers right with his play so far. He’s already one of if not the most outspoken leader on the team, and when the Terrapins need a bucket in a tough situation, it’s never a bad guess that the ball will be in Wells’ hands. Props.

The NCAA on Tuesday released its first RPI ratings as conference season kicks off across the country. The news is mixed for the ACC, but it definitely looks like six (maybe seven) ACC teams will be fighting for NCAA bids this year.

The Good

• Duke is tops in the land, and it’s probably not close. Between beating top-tier non-conference foes and Mike Krzyzewski’s “gaming” of the system with solid mid-majors at neutral sites (see: Davidson), Duke could probably sustain a loss or two (especially on the road) without dropping in the rankings. Right now the Blue Devils are as close to a lock for a one-seed as you can be in early January.

Miami should celebrate its RPI ranking, but there’s still plenty of work to be done. (Photo: Al Diaz / Miami Herald)

• Miami shockingly sits at #8 because of a perfect schedule: They haven’t lost at home, the teams they’ve lost to aren’t that bad, and they scheduled difficult enough (according to Jerry Palm, they have the third best strength of schedule in the country behind Duke and Colorado). That home win against Michigan State definitely helps a lot too, but props to Jim Larranaga for knowing how to schedule. Combine the high RPI and solid best win with the fact that the three losses came without Durand Scott and Reggie Johnson, and right now Miami feels pretty safe (assuming decent play in the ACC) come Selection Sunday.
• NC State rounds out the top tier for the ACC, sliding into the index at #15. Playing a decent schedule (Michigan — even with the loss — on the road helped greatly) has the Wolfpack in a good place. This team doesn’t have any marquee wins, though, which needs to change before Selection Sunday. Unfortunately, as you’re about to find out, there aren’t a ton of high-profile wins to be had in conference play (especially if you’re one of the high-profile teams).

The Bad

• North Carolina is top-50 (#42 to be exact), but let’s be real: The Tar Heels aren’t shooting for a top-50 finish. That said, this team’s struggles away from home are going to be a serious hindrance to an elite RPI assuming they continue. North Carolina still isn’t really in danger of missing the NCAAs, but starting off conference play with an uninspired loss at Virginia wasn’t a great look (to be fair, Vegas had the Tar Heels as underdogs). The double-edged silver lining for the Tar Heels is that they have the hardest possible conference schedule, so there are several marquee wins available.

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Dividing the players in the ACC by the educational institution they attend is a pretty logical way to set up teams. However, dividing teams by the thematic properties of the players’ names also seems like a strong and totally appropriate way to set up teams. Here are some examples of how that breakdown might work.

The All-Initial Team

CJ Leslie Leads the All-Initial Team

• P.J. Hairston
• C.J. Harris
• K.J. McDaniels
• C.J. Leslie
• T.J. Warren

Off the bench: C.J. Barksdale, KC Caudill, J.P. Tokoto, T.J. Sapp

Last year, the ACC was one C.J. short of an all-C.J. starting five, but the departure of C.J. Williams put an end to that dream. Instead, we get a team that is rich in forwards and “J’s.” As a an actual team, their lack of ball-handling would be somewhat problematic, but there is little doubt that this team would be able to score and rebound. Just about all the initialed players in the ACC are solid rotation players. If Harris and Hairston get hot from the arc, this team could really run up the score as long as they could get someone to bring the ball up. Also, someone should probably tell KC Caudill that he isn’t allowed to use any initials unless one of them is a “J.”

The All-Prismatic Team

• Lorenzo Brown
• Erick Green
• Robert Brown
• Rion Brown
• Okaro White

Granted, this team isn’t actually all that colorful unless you get really creative with your hues of brown, but the one advantage this team has over some of the others is how good this team would be. Sure, a little undersized down low, but this side of Seth Curry, this is an incredible backcourt. Add in the scoring punch of the two other Browns and the post experience of White and you have a very interesting team.

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1. Grantland: Shane Ryan gave an update on college basketball as a whole but not surprisingly focused on the ACC. His main league points: (1) Duke is one of two dominant teams this year, along with Michigan; (2) NC State‘s ceiling is the Sweet Sixteen; and (3) Maryland looks like the second best team in the conference. My only caveats: (1) I want to see Duke win an ugly game in a hostile environment before getting too deep into “dominant” talk; (2) NC State has shown the ability to play better defense and make the Sweet Sixteen with a worse team and anything can happen at the Big Dance; and (3) Virginia Tech wasn’t really a test and we shouldn’t judge the Terrapins too concretely until the next six games happen.
2. College Basketball Talk: Eric Angevine talked with Marcus Paige about the Tar Heels’ loss to Virginia. Paige was very complimentary of the Cavaliers on offense and defense. He pointed to Virginia’s fighting through screens and the pack-line’s ability to take away driving lanes as big parts to its defensive success. The Cavaliers not needing help on screens clearly flustered everyone on North Carolina’s team to no end (aside from Reggie Bullock, who had a great night). But the Tar Heels won’t see many defenses like that going forward, so that’s not as troubling as the number of wide open shots Virginia had thanks to running players off those screens.
3. Charlotte Observer: Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton used to play for the same AAU team in middle school. Duke’s point guard pair’s longtime friendship definitely helps with team chemistry. It also probably played a big role in Cook’s dramatic improvement as a defender (seriously, watch some Duke tape from last year… he was one of Duke’s biggest defensive liabilities). Not to beat a dead horse, but there’s a closeness that pervades this Duke team that simply wasn’t there last year. That really close bond is also why Josh Hairston sees so many more minutes than the new, more talented, freshmen.
4. Florida Today: Terry Whisnant is Florida State‘s best shooter. He’s part of the slew of combo guards Leonard Hamilton uses on a frequent basis, adjusting the rotation based on match-ups and who’s hot. It sounds like Whisnant would like more time, but understands his current role on the team. If the Seminoles start showing big improvements and get a couple of statement wins under their belts, that understanding may be a little less bitter. Regardless, if you’re looking for the man most likely to pull a Deividas Dulkys impersonation this season, Whisnant is your man.
5. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Akil Mitchell was questionable for Sunday’s North Carolina – Virginia game thanks to a sprained ankle he suffered in practice. But Mitchell clearly didn’t want to watch from the sidelines, either. He gutted out the game, and played very well regardless. Interestingly, Mitchell wanted to keep his injury a secret before game time. He went as far as to tell his mother to remove a Facebook status discussing the injury. Now that the adrenaline and anti-inflammatories have worn off, don’t be surprised if Mitchell takes the next game off to let his ankle get better. But I’ll bet it was totally worth it to knock off the Tar Heels for the first time in the John Paul Jones Arena.

Florida State dominated the first half of its game against Clemson over the weekend before the Tigers clawed their way back in the final 20 minutes to cut the deficit to three. Clemson couldn’t quite get over the hump to pull off the home win, but the game gave insights into both teams going forward.

1. Devin Booker could be first-team All-ACC. Here, “could” implies that it is possible based on his abilities — not that it is likely to happen. Erick Green will probably steal the spot on first team thanks to his incredibly high usage and gaudy scoring numbers, but Booker looked tremendous against the Seminoles’ long, inexperienced front line. He has got a wide array of post moves, good range (though not as good as his brother’s), and the strength of an ox.
   

   Devin Booker is underutilized by Clemson (Credit: IPTAY Media)

   Why head coach Brad Brownell couldn’t find a way to get Booker the ball more often is beyond me. Part of the blame falls on Booker, who disappears for large stretches of the game, but much of the responsibility goes to the Clemson guards and Milton Jennings, who tried to do way too much. If the Tigers are going to finish decently this season, they have to get Booker’s usage up significantly. The ball has to run through him. He was every bit as impressive as Mason Plumlee was on Saturday by finishing with 19 points and 11 boards on 8-of-11 shooting. Read the rest of this entry »

After five games on Saturday and one game on Sunday, conference play has officially begun for all the schools in the ACC. So did we learn anything over the weekend? Absolutely. Here are three takeaways from the action.

1. North Carolina State is Vulnerable. Sure the Wolfpack scores with ease, but Boston College, a terrible offensive rebounding team, easily snagged some critical boards in the closing minutes of a surprisingly tight game. Just as problematic, North Carolina State has still not figured out how to defend without fouling: Boston College attempted a whopping 37 free throws in its five point (78-73) loss. The Wolfpack got the win in the end, but this game was hardly the confidence-boosting rout that the folks in Raleigh were hoping for. Against stiffer competition, NC State might find itself in trouble.
   

   Erick Green Has Been Forced To Do It All This Year

2. Erick Green Can Really Score, Even If Nobody Else on Virginia Tech Can. In all fairness, this wasn’t exactly a surprising lesson, but the lopsidedness of the game against Maryland — a 94-71 defeat — really highlighted the problem that the Hokies have. Green scored 28 points on an efficient 18 shots and still his team lost by 23. If you can’t get the score within 20 points on the tail of a star performance like that, your team is in serious trouble. Cadarian Raines showed a real knack on the boards and maybe it was just an off night for his teammates Robert Brown and Jarell Eddie, but until Virginia Tech demonstrates otherwise, this team only has one player, albeit a really great one.
3. North Carolina Isn’t Ready, But Virginia Is. There has been a growing suspicion that North Carolina was not a very good team, but a win against UNLV without Reggie Bullock in the lineup earned the Tar Heels the benefit of the doubt. In its loss against Virginia, however, Roy Williams’ team showcased how vulnerable and inept it can be, while Virginia made its opening argument for its case as an ACC contender. Outside of Bullock, who has been freakishly efficient and effective this season, North Carolina can’t score effectively against good defenses. And let’s be clear, Virginia has a very good defense. The Cavaliers did a remarkable job in exhibiting how a combination of tough defense, a slow tempo, and deadly perimeter shooting can pick apart a team that isn’t prepared for it.

1. Fought and Won One: Pack Pride writer Austin Johnson took the time to compare all ACC teams to TV shows, doubling his post as an ACC Power Rankings. If you bumped Virginia and (gasp) Boston College up a couple of notches, Miami up one, and dropped North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest I would be right there with him on the rankings. The best comparison is for Georgia Tech with Parenthood:
   

   Quietly putting together some really good performances but no one is really watching. Also, I don’t watch Parenthood, I just know its by the same guy who did Friday Night Lights and its apparently been very good this season if you like crying. Hopefully there’s not as much crying on GT’s team.

   He hits the nail on the head with the Yellow Jackets as a potential sleeper team in the conference. Not a great team by any means, but definitely one that should surprise a few people.

2. Hampton Roads Daily Press: Virginia Tech coach James Johnson got a rude introduction to ACC play Saturday. Part of the Hokies’ issue is with depth. After Seth Greenberg’s late dismissal, Virginia Tech’s recruiting class started to fall apart, leaving the Hokies short on scholarship players. Thanks to injuries two walk-ons–Christian Beyer and Will Johnston–have seen a big uptick in minutes. The two are playing big minutes for Johnson’s undermanned squad, but a feel-good story doesn’t always have good consequences. The Hokies’ depth will be one of their biggest issues all season.
3. Raleigh News & Observer: NC State gutted out a win at Boston College Saturday. The Eagles were in it until the very end. Joe Giglio came away with three thoughts: an ugly win is still a win; props to Steve Donahue; and ACC officiating can be incredibly irritating. I agree with all three. I thought the game said much more about the Eagles than it did the Wolfpack (though it certainly brought to mind flashbacks to Sidney Lowe’s teams at least in terms of intensity). Donahue has done a very strong coaching job. He is still filling his roster with ACC-caliber players, but the team is much better than last season.
4. Baltimore Sun: It’s hard to remember because of his struggles to start the season, but Jake Layman was Mark Turgeon’s second best recruit coming into this year. Layman’s issues on and off the court overshadowed his potential (though not his hair). Against Virginia Tech Layman finally found his groove, putting up 18 points in the first half alone. “It’s ACC time, and we all stepped up,” Layman said after the game. You don’t want to read too much into a home blowout over a mediocre Virginia Tech team, but if it lights a fire under Layman things look very good for Mark Turgeon going forward.
5. Charlotte Observer: Like most expected Wake Forest took a beating on Saturday at Duke. Jeff Bzdelik is still trying to diagnose the symptoms as growing pains, but the “Buzz Out” t-shirts growing in popularity amongst Demon Deacon fans make it clear the fans see a different issue. Bzdelik’s problem is the growth hasn’t come to fruition. First it was this incoming class, which to be fair could still turn things around with time to mature. Now it is Shelton Mitchell (a top-50 2014 recruit). Bzdelik needs to show improvement now not later or Ron Wellman may join the movement.

Matt Patton (@rise_and_fire) is an ACC Microsite writer and RTC correspondent. He filed this report after Saturday afternoon’s ACC clash between Florida State and Clemson in Littlejohn Coliseum.

On the first possession of its conference opener at Littlejohn Coliseum Saturday afternoon, Florida State looked like the defending conference champions. The Seminoles forced a shot clock violation with its suffocating ball pressure and two blocks near the rim. That possession fueled their fire, as the Seminoles ran out to a double-figure lead behind great shooting — specifically from Okaro White (who made three early three-point field goals) and Ian Miller (who hit both of his shots from deep). At one point Michael Snaer singlehandedly forced a Clemson turnover in the backcourt. Clemson bounced back somewhat, but still trailed by 13 at the half.

Florida State really misses the days of the vaunted Bernard James Chris Singleton defense.

The second half was a different story. The Seminoles looked entitled, not determined. Snaer allowed the officials to frustrate him and Clemson slowly but surely climbed back into the game. The Tigers forced some untimely turnovers, hit big shots and killed FSU on the boards. Luckily for (and probably thanks to) Florida State, Milton Jennings was horrible all game. He committed five turnovers, and made several crucial defensive mistakes down the stretch. FSU escaped with a 71-66 win, but a victory doesn’t disguise the fact that Florida State’s defense was undressed in the second half. They had no answer to Devin Booker once he got the ball. Booker finished 8-of-11 from the field for 19 points and 11 boards. He looked unstoppable and Florida State’s front line looked soft or uncoordinated depending on its personnel.

That said, Florida State has some positives to take away from this game. First and foremost, it survived in a hostile environment when the whistle was blowing the other way most of the afternoon. Also Snaer looked pedestrian on offense. White had a great first half, showing off his potential, before playing the role of wallflower for much of the second half. Long story short, the Seminoles have a long way to go and an uphill battle to fight before Selection Sunday — this team needs to get a lot better.

Sports Illustrated‘s Seth Davis is a smart guy and gimmick columns are a time-honored tradition in sports writing, yet it is hard not come away a little befuddled at the strange results of a strained stock market metaphor in his latest Hoop Thoughts column. Since he makes some interesting short term predictions on eight different ACC teams, it is worth a closer look. Before we dive too deep in to picking nits, let us note an important caveat:

Remember, now, these ratings assess only where a stock is headed relative to where it is today. That yields a twisted logic. The better a team is, the higher it’s ranked, the more likely it is to yield a Sell. The opposite is true for teams that are unranked and unremarked upon.

How Much Higher Can Duke’s Stock Go? (Duke Hoop Blog)

This makes sense at face value: When there is little room for a team to get better, it’s hard to say that their stock is going to go up. At least, I thought that was the correct understanding of this caveat until I saw that Davis names Duke a “Buy.” Last time I checked, the Blue Devils were undefeated, captained by the front-runner for national player of the year, and top-ranked in both polls. I don’t doubt that Duke has it in them to play even better but it makes little sense in light of the caveat and the whole strained analogy to label them a “Buy.” Duke’s abstract stock and the buzz around this team can’t get higher. If we are going to adhere to the stated logic, then this team should probably be a “Sell.” Granted, Duke is a great team and they are performing incredibly well, but if we are going to go with this whole metaphor, we should at least commit to the bit and acknowledge that it would be impossible for future performances to do anything but match the performance so far. At this point, I think we can all acknowledge that we all think Duke is good and that this is silly, but for now, let’s go with it.

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